draft 2 presentation
DESCRIPTION
DRAFT 2 PRESENTATION. Dr. Pelesko MATH 260. Distribution of House and Bewick’s Wrens. HOUSE WREN. BEWICK’S WREN. http://www.roysephotos.com/zzBewicksWren6.jpg. http://www.sialis.org/images/nesteggsphotoalbum/images/28CarolinaWren.jpg. Biological Problem. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
DRAFT 2 PRESENTATION
Dr. Pelesko
MATH 260
Distribution of House and Bewick’s Wrens
HOUSE WREN BEWICK’S WRENhttp://www.roysephotos.com/zzBewicksWren6.jpghttp://www.sialis.org/images/nesteggsphotoalbum/images/28CarolinaWren.jpg
Biological Problem
• House-Wren and Bewick’s Wren competition relatively new (within the last 10 years) – Didn’t share territory until recently (Kennedy et. al., 2007)
• How will this new interaction affect the population dynamics of both species?
Bewick’s Wren Nest
X
http://byteshuffler.com/rospo/blog/uploaded_images/NestEggs-729160.jpg (nest)
http://www.suttoncenter.org/images/House-Wren-Carroll.jpg (wren)
Egg Photo courtesy of The Nova Scotia Museum at http://museum.gov.ns.ca/mnh/nature/nsbirds/bns0276.htm
Data Supporting Nest Vandalism
Summary
• We want to analyze the consequences of the cohabitation of the House Wren and Bewick’s Wren on their populations
• Will this result in fewer Bewick’s Wrens? • Will this result in more House Wrens?
Mathematical Problem
• How can build a mathematical model of the population dynamics of the Bewick’s Wren and the House Wren?
Specific Aims
Aim 1: Examine single-species population model for both Bewick’s Wren and House Wren
Aim 2: Create two species model of competition between Bewick’s Wren and House
Wren
Aim 3: Compare Models with biological data from BBS
HOUSE WREN BEWICK’S WREN
Aim 1: Single Species Model
Model Assumptions
Interspecies competition with House Wrens is the only major contribution to the failing Bewick’s Wren population
Single Species Model (Gina)
HOUSE WREN
VS
BEWICK’S WREN
Aim 2: Two Species Model
Model Equations
Non-Dimensionalization
Final Equations
So what is a competition coefficient?
• Quantifies how every additional organism of species 1 fills the niche of species 2
€
dN2
dt= (r2)(N2)
K2 −N2 −N1α 21
K2
Reproduction Rates
House Wrenr = .84
Of 36 nests 24 produced at least one
fledgling
Bewick’s Wrenr = .67
Of 535 nests 449 produced at least one
fledgling
This data was retrieved from The Birds of British Columbia - a reference work on 472 species of birds in the area.
Calculate carrying capacity for each species
• Relate indiviual data and the logistic equation, growth rate
Linear Stability at Critical Points of the Model
4 Critical Points
• (0,0)• (0,1)• (1,0)• (n1
*,n2 *)
– n1 * = (1-alpha2/beta)/ (1-alpha1alpha2)
– n2 * = (1 – alpha1beta(1 – alpha2beta/(1-
alpha1alpha2)))
Linear Stability
• We notice that similar to a scalar ODE– dx/dt = Ax ,x(0) = x0 where denotes vector
Has solution x(t) = x0 exp(At), where A is the Jacobian matrix
Decomposing A• By writing • A = SDS-1
• Exp(At) = exp[(SDS-1)t] • then taylor expanding the following• sum{ (SDS-1 t)n / n! } from 0…inf• we can see that the eigenvalues of A determine the behavior
of the solution.• If Eig(A(criticalpt)) = both neg. then the point is stable• If Eig(A(criticalpt)) = both pos. then the point is unstable• If Eig(A(criticalpt)) = pos/ neg. then it is a saddle point
Tedious details of Analysis
• This needs to be typed in latex• Show all A matrices evaluated at each critical
point• Eigenvalues of each matrix A• Phase plane behavior determined by above. A
couple plots for different cases of alphas, betas, etc. would be nice
Aim 3: Compare Models with biological data from BBS
BBS has separated data by several classes, including Fish & Wildlife Service Regions
• Species interactions have mostly taken place where “northern” and “southern” regions of the U.S. came together
Physiographic Strata of the U.S.
• Areas of similar geographic and vegetation features
• Developed by modifying vegetation and soil distribution maps
• Allow for examination of bird species in a small area that experiences a specific climate
• Ignores state boundaries, concentrates on geographical boundaries
Large Range Data
• Data from wider geographical regions allowed us to evaluate the behavior of each species' population somewhat individually
• This data from larger areas, reflected less of the effect of interaction with the other species
Region 2: Southern Midwest U.S.• Bewick's wren and House wren populations stable
throughout BBS data collection• Average Bewick's population much lower than that of
House wren
Region 6: Northern Midwest U.S.• Bewick's wren population: slowly increasing• House wren population: slowly increasing until early
1990's before stabilizing
Region 3: Northern Central U.S.• Bewick's wren population: decreasing• House wren population: slowly increasing
Region 4: Southern Central U.S.• Bewick's wren population: decreasing rapidly until
around 1980 and then stable• House wren population: increasing rapidly
throughout survey
Wren Population Patterns• Bewick’s Wren populations seem largest in the
southwest• Strongest areas with no House Wrens are in
southern Texas, in Strata 53, 54, 56• House Wren populations seem largest in the
northern US• Strongest areas with no Bewick’s Wrens are in
the north and midwest, in Strata 31,32,40• Overlap between the two is most prevalent in
southwestern California, in Strata 92,94, and 83
Strata 54 – Rolling Red Plains- Texas
Bewick’s Wren House Wren
Strata 31 –Till Plains - Midwest
Bewick’s Wren• No data for species
House Wren
Strata 92 – California Foothills – Southern California
Bewick’s Wren House Wren
Pending Questions• Do both the birds coexist (did you mean can they coexist for infinitely
large t given their competitive nature)?
• There is no data given in the BBS, where the two birds over lap (?).
Looking at all the data , it seems that the House wrens exist at the central
and east where as the Bewicks wren at the west. There is no data that
shows their existence together. The possible problem that House Wrens
and Bewicks Wrens compete might be true as there are certain states where
the, population changes inversely. While the Bewicks Increase the House
Wren decreases.
Do BBS data reflect populations?
€
B
A(R ×D)
• Convert to density• Extrapolate for region• Detection adjustments
Interpreting Data From BBS Graphs
• The vertical axis of population graphs from the BBS website was labeled “count”.
• Clearly, this was not the raw number of birds counted because there were often data points that appeared to show fractional birds being observed
Vertical Axis: Relative Abundance
• The vertical axis of these graphs is not the raw number of birds of a given species counted
• BBS has calculated the relative abundance (R.A.) for each species and region – the number of birds per route
• According to BBS, “[…] an approximate measure of how many birds are seen on a route in the region.”
Example: House Wren data for region 87 – R.A. = 0.28