DRAFT STRATEGYFOR TRANSITION OF SLOVENIAFOR TRANSITION OF SLOVENIA

TO A LOW CARBON SOCIETY BY2060

Jernej Stritih

Director

Background

15.000

20.000

CO

2 e

q.

(Kt)

Housing

Energy

• 2 million people

• 20.000 km2

• 10 t CO2eq./capita

• Country in transition

• Joined EU in 2004

0

5.000

10.000

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Em

issi

on

sC

O2

Non CO2 Agriculture

Non CO2 Other

Industry

Transport

• Joined EU in 2004

• Annex I

• -8% target under

Kyoto

• Carbon sink 6%

Legal contextUNFCCC

Kyoto protocolKyoto protocol 2

Comprehensive global

agreement?

Climate Energy Package

Directive ETS Directive ETSDiscussion

beyond

20%

Do 2012 2012 - 2020 2020 -- 2050

Burden sharing (SI: +4%)

Environment Act -

ETS

OP TGP 1

Environment Act – ETS ?

Low Carbon Strategy

Operation Programme OP OP

Energy Act

Climate Change Act

Energy Act

New Burden Sharing ?LULUCF ?

20%

Process • Research project “Low carbon

society” 2008- 2011

• Establishment of Government

Office for Climate Change in

2009

• Parliament declaration 2009

• Draft Climate Act 2010

• Consultation process 2010-• Consultation process 2010-

2011

• Over 15 stakeholder

workshops

• “International futures” model

• Draft published in Sept. 2011

• Ready for adoption in 2012

Goals

Global goalHalt the increase of global average surface

temperature below 2°C

Lower the national GHG emissions TGP to

Strategic goals of

Slovenia

Lower the national GHG emissions TGP to

less than 4 million ton of CO2 equivalent by

2050

Make sure that vulnerability of Slovenia to

effects of climate chaneg does not increase

above the present level

Strategic approach

Reducing emissions through

green growth

Green Growth

Green Taxes

Public Expenditure

Green Tax Reform

Improving predictions and assessment of

vulnerability

Integration of adaptation objectives into sectoral

AdaptationIntegration of adaptation objectives into sectoral

policies

Funding

Horisontal strategies

Innovation and Education

Local and Regional Initiative

Awareness and Communication

Active Role in International Community

Low Carbon Strategy

Economy Society

Environment

Emission

reductionAdaptation

Objectives and GuidelinesThematic area Emission reduction Adaptation

Energy � �

Transport � �

Low carbon technologies � �

Buildings � �

Industry � �

Services � �Services � �

Agriculture � �

Solid waste � �

Spatial planning � �

Forests, sinks, biodiversity � �

Waters � �

Health � �

Natural disasters � �

Pathway 2050

Industry

Heat and electricity

10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

em

iss

ion

s [

Mt

CO

2 e

q.]

Housing and services

Current policies

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

Transport

0

5

0

5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

em

iss

ion

s [

Mt

CO

year

Non C02 emissions (Agriculture)

Non C02 emissions (other)

-6

-4

-2

0year

Carbon sinks in forests (actual)

flexible mechanisms

Sinks accounted for

under KP

Impact on GDP

• Different

scenarios make

little difference,

but are all higher

than baseline

• Most important

factor – decrease

of cost of newof cost of new

technologies

• General level of

investment and

investment in

renewables

Impact on society

A year and a half after

• Two new governments

• Office cancelled as one of the luxuries

• Economic crisis continues

• Problems with past development model • Problems with past development model

becoming more visible

• Elements of the Strategy showing up in

new official documents

• No other options available�

http://www.svps.gov.si/