Brandeis UniversityDepartment of Politics

POL 170A: Advanced Research SeminarArms Control in the Middle East and Asia

SPRING 2019

Dr. Gary Samore

Time: Thursdays, 2:00 – 4:50 PM

Location: Lown 201

Contact Information

Gary Samore Office: Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Lemberg Hall, 228Phone: (781) 736-5320Office Hours: Thursdays, 12:00 pm-1:30 pm and by appointmentEmail: gsamore@brandeis.edu

Course Description

This advanced research seminar examines the challenge of nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East and Asia, with a focus on nuclear weapons programs of Israel, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, China, and North Korea. The first part of the course deals with nuclear weapons design and development, the connections between nuclear power programs and nuclear weapons development, the causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation, concepts of nuclear deterrence and stability, and the international arms control and nonproliferation regime. Through historical case studies, the course will then explore the motivations of specific countries in the Middle East and Asia to acquire nuclear weapons, the strategies they have pursued to develop the technical means to build nuclear weapons, and the consequences for regional and international security. The case studies will also examine efforts by the U.S. and other countries to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Professor Samore will augment theoretical and historical analysis with insights from his practical experience as a senior White House official responsible for U.S. nonproliferation and arms control policy.

Enrollment 

This course is intended as a research seminar for juniors, seniors and graduate students who already possess a strong background in international relations and relevant regional studies.

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Students should have already taken POL 15a Introduction to International Relations and at least one seminar on international security or politics in the Middle East or Asia. Learning Goals

To be familiar with and recognize scholarly conventions and debates concerning the proliferation of nuclear weapons

To be able to critically assess claims made by those in the field and in the mass media To be able to frame questions, investigate problems, and evaluate conclusions using

approaches from political science To develop strong oral communication skills through active participation in every class

meeting To improve research and writing skills through thoughtful utilization of assigned reading

materials

Course Requirements and Prerequisites

Students will be expected to master the basic concepts and terminology concerning the design and production of nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy and deterrence, and arms control and nonproliferation, as well as an understanding of nuclear programs in the countries studied in the course.

All students are required to attend every class, barring illness, and to complete the assigned readings listed below in advance of each class. Students will be called upon to participate in discussion of the readings in class. This means that everyone must come to class prepared to discuss the readings. Well-informed classroom discussion is required of each student. It is highly recommended that students annotate personal copies of, or make notes from the readings.

In addition to classroom discussion of the readings and course materials, each student will make a short (10 minute) presentation to the class on their research paper, explaining their topic, methodology and conclusions. Students may use Power Point slides if they wish. The last day of class (April 18) will be reserved for student presentations. To ensure there is sufficient time for every student to present his/her research paper, it may be necessary to set aside time in the April 4 and April 11 classes for a few student presentations. Professor Samore will work with the class to complete a schedule for student presentations by Spring Break.

The writing requirement listed below is intended to encourage students to approach reading materials critically, to foster improved research and writing skills, and to serve as a basis for contributing to class discussion. Students are expected to devote careful attention to the technical quality of their written work, as well as its substance. Students enjoy complete academic freedom in the classroom, within the limits defines by standards of mutual respect.

You are expected to be honest in all of your academic work. Please consult Brandeis University Rights and Responsibilities for all policies and procedures related to academic integrity. Students may be required to submit work to TurnItIn.com software to verify originality. Allegations of alleged academic dishonesty will be forwarded to the Director of

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Academic Integrity. Sanctions for academic dishonesty can include failing grades and/or suspension from the university. Citation and research assistance can be found at LTS - Library guides. If you have any questions about this, please ask.

Course Plan

January 17 Introduction – A Brief History of Nuclear Proliferation January 24 How to Make a BombJanuary 31 Nuclear Strategy and DeterrenceFebruary 7 Arms Control and Nonproliferation RegimeFebruary 14 Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation February 21 Midterm Break February 28 The Great Proliferation Debate and Mid Term

March 7 Israel: Nuclear Monopoly March 14 The Arabs who Failed (Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Syria)March 21 Iran: On the Cusp?March 28 India and Pakistan: Nuclear Balance in South AsiaApril 4 China and Japan: Nuclear Imbalance in East Asia April 11 North and South Korea: Nuclear Imbalance on the PeninsulaApril 18 Student Report Presentations (last day of class)April 25 Spring Break May 2 No Class (Brandeis Friday) May 7 Final Student Reports Due

Four Credit Course

Success in this four credit hour course is based on the expectation that students will spend a minimum of nine hours of study time per week in preparation for three hours of class time (readings, papers, discussion sections, preparation for exams, etc.).  

Individual Written Assignments

Each student will be responsible for selecting a research topic and preparing a 1-2 page precis or outline of the proposed research paper along with a bibliography of proposed research material, due by March 14. As necessary, students are invited to discuss proposed research topics with Professor Samore. Once the proposed research topic has been approved by Professor Samore, students will write a 20 page research paper to be submitted by May 7.

All written assignments must be typewritten, double-spaced in 12-point font (this syllabus is in 12-point), and submitted electronically via email to gsamore@brandeis.edu as a Microsoft Word attachment. Please use “Compatibility Mode” in Word to ensure that it can be read on any computer with Microsoft Office and not just those with the most recent version.

If you are a student with a documented disability on record at Brandeis University and wish to have a reasonable accommodation made for you in this class, please see me immediately.

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Evaluation

Students will be evaluated on the following basis - 25% for the in-class midterm on February 28; 15% percent for class participation; 10% for student presentations on their research papers; 5% for the research paper precis/outline and 45% for the final paper itself.

Readings

The only reading assignments that students are required to read before each class are the ones under the title of the topic of that class. The list of additional, optional reading is provided to serve students who might wish to increase their knowledge on the specific topic, and help them in their research should they choose to address these topics in their midterm or final paper.

The primary textbooks for the course are available on Amazon and in the Brandeis University bookstore:

Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press 2014).

Sagan, Scott D., and Waltz, Kenneth N., The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (New York, New York, Norton Publishers, 3rd edition, 2013).

Additional required listed on the syllabus are available on LATTE or on line. If there are any issues with the readings on LATTE, please contact Prof. Samore immediately for assistance.

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Schedule of Classes, Readings, and Discussion Topics

January 17 – Introduction – A Brief History of Nuclear Proliferation

Barnouw, Erik “Hiroshima/Nagasaki, August 1945,” (film, 15 minutes), Columbia University, 1969, https://archive.org/details/hiroshimanagasakiaugust1945#.

Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: OTA, May 1979), especially pp. 15-46. http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF (Useful overview of all of the effects of nuclear weapons.)

January 24 – How to Make a Bomb

Required

Bunn, Matthew, “Nuclear 101: Making the Essential Elements of Nuclear Weapons”, Video lecture, September 12, 2013. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnW7DxsJth0&t=17s

Bunn, Matthew, “How Nuclear Bombs Work” Video lecture September 10, 2013. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVhQOhxb1Mc&t=20s

Sokolski, Henry, Nuclear Energy Basics Part 1: Fission, Fusion and the Bomb (Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 2018) pp. 15-41. http://nuclearpolicy101.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-Primer_Fission-Fusion-the-Bomb-2.pdf

Sokolski, Henry and Harrison, Kate, Nuclear Energy Basics: Part 2: Reactors and Nuclear Fuel Making (Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, September 1, 2016) pp. 1-50. http://nuclearpolicy101.org/wp-content/uploads/PDF/Reactors and-Nuclear-Fuel-Making.pdf .

International Panel on Fissile Materials, “Appendix: Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapons,” in Global Fissile Materials Report 2015: Nuclear Weapon and Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production (Princeton, N.J.: IPFM, 2015), pp. 40-47. http://fissilematerials.org/library/gfmr15.pdf

Recommended

Greenwood, Ted, Rathjens, George W. and Ruina, Jack, Nuclear Power and Weapons Proliferation (London, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Paper 130, 1976).

Rhodes, Richard, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, 1986).

Rhodes, Richard, Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, 1995).

Office of Technology Assessment, “Technical Aspects of Nuclear Proliferation,” in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: OTA, December 1993), especially pp. 119-129, 149-158. https://ota.fas.org/reports/9344.pdf

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January 31 - Nuclear Strategy and DeterrenceGuest Lecture: Professor Francis Gavin, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Required

Brodie, Bernard, “The Development of Nuclear Strategy”, in Miller, Steven E, editor, Strategy and Nuclear Deterrence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), pp. 3-21.

Gavin, Francis, “Rethinking the Bomb: Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy, Texas National Security Review, Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2019.

Roberts, Brad, The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2016), pp. 11-50.

Schelling, Thomas, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966), Chapter 1: The Diplomacy of Violence, pp 1-34.

Recommended

Delpech, Therese, Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century, (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2012, pp. 1-60.

Gavin, Francis, Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in the Nuclear Age, (Cornell, NY: Cornell University Press, 2012).

Rovner, Joshua, “After Proliferation: Deterrence Theory and Emerging Nuclear Powers,” in Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. (eds.), Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon, (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2012), pp. 17-35.

Shelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960), 1st two pages of “The Reciprocal Fear of Surprise Attack” (pp. 207-208), and 1st 13 pages of “Surprise Attack and Disarmament,” (pp. 230-242), http://elcenia.com/iamapirate/ schelling.pdf

Watts, Barry D., Nuclear-Conventional Firebreaks and the Nuclear Taboo, (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2013).

February 7 – Arms Control and Nonproliferation Regime

Required

Bunn, George “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime and Its History,” Chapter 3 in George Bunn and Christopher Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today’s Threats (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2006), pp. 75-125.

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Feldman, Shai, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997), Chapter 7 “Nuclear Arms Control: Arab Policies” pp. 205-242 and Chapter 8 “Nuclear Arms Control: Israel’s Policies” pp. 243-261.

“Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html

Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (Treaty of Tlatelolco) https://www.iaea.org/publications/documents/treaties/treaty-prohibition-nuclear-weapons-latin-america-tlatelolco-treaty

Recommended

Findlay, Trevor, Proliferation Alert! The IAEA and Non-Compliance Reporting (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, October 2015), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Proliferation%20Alert.pdf

Foradori, Paolo and Malin, Martin B., eds., A WMD Free Zone in the Middle East: Regional Perspectives (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, November 2013), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/dp_2013-09.pdf

Goldschmidt, Pierre, “Safeguards Noncompliance: A Challenge for the IAEA and the UN Security Council,” Arms Control Today, January/February 2010, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_01-02/Goldschmidt

Kamrava, Mehran, editor, The Nuclear Question in the Middle East (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2012).

Landau, Emily, Arms Control in the Middle East (Tel Aviv, Israel: Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, 2006).

Miller, Steven E., Nuclear Collisions: Discord, Reform & the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 2012, http://www.amacad.org/pdfs/nonproliferation.pdf

“Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones,” Disarmament Forum (United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research), 2011, No. 2, http://www.unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/nuclear weapon-free-zones- en-314.pdf

Potter, William, “The NPT and the Sources of Nuclear Restraint” in Daedalus, (Winter 2010, Vol 2), pp. 68-81.

Scheinman, Lawrence, The International Atomic Energy Agency and World Nuclear Order (Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 1987).

Schelling, Thomas C. and Halperin, Morton H. Halperin, (eds.), Strategy and Arms Control (Washington, DC: Pergamon-Brassey, 1985), pp. 9-31.

Stahl, Shelly A. and Kemp, Geoffrey, eds. Arms Control and Weapons Proliferation in the Middle East and South Asia (New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press, 1992).

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February 14 – Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation Required

Betts, Richard, “Paranoids, Pygmies, Pariahs & Nonproliferation” Foreign Policy, No. 26 (spring, 1977), pp. 157-183.

Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), Chapter 1 “Introduction” (pp. 1-12) and Chapter 2 “The Sources of Regional Power Nuclear Postures: Posture Optimization Theory” (pp. 13-54).

Narang, Vipin, “Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation: How States Pursue the Bomb,” International Security, 2016, Volume 41 (3), pp 110-150.

Sagan, Scott, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?” in Brown, Michael E. (et al.) (eds), Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010) pp. 3-35.

Recommended

Bleek, Philipp, When Did (and Didn’t) States Proliferate? Chronicling the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (Cambridge, Mass: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Monterey, Calif., June 2017), https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/when-did-and-didnt-states-proliferate

Dunn, Lewis, Containing Nuclear Proliferation (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi Papers 263, Winter 1991).

Fuhrmann, Matthew, Atomic Assistance: How “Atoms for Peace” Programs cause Nuclear Insecurity (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2012).

Kroenig, Matthew, Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010).

Lavoy, Peter R., Sagan, Scott D., and Wirtz, James J., eds., Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers will use Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons, (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000).

Reed, Thomas C. and Stillman, Danny B., The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation (Osceola, WI: Zenith Press, 2009).

Reiss, Mitchell Bridled Ambition: Why Countries Constrain their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1995).

Snyder, Jed C. and Wells, Samuel F., Limiting Nuclear Proliferation (Washington, DC: Wilson Center, 1985).

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February 21 – Midterm Break

February 28 – The Great Proliferation Debate and Mid Term Exam

Required

Sagan, Scott and Waltz, Kenneth, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (New York, NY: Norton Books, 2013), Chapter 1-4, pp. 3-134.

Recommended

Kroenig, Matthew “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have a Future?” in Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2014), 45-89. http://www.npolicy.org/books/Moving_Beyond_Pretense/Ch3_Kro enig.pdf

March 7 – Israel: Nuclear Monopoly

Required

Narang, Vipin, “Israel”, in Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014) pp. 179-206.

Cohen, Avner, Israel and the Bomb (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1998), Chapter 7 “The Battle Over Dimona, pp. 115-136, Chapter 16 “The Battle Over the NPT” pp. 293-321 and Chapter 17 “Opacity Takes Over” pp. 323-338.

Karpin, Michael, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and what that means for the World (New York, NY: Simon & Schuster, 2006), Chapter 14 “A Secret Compromise” pp. 287-321.

Recommended

Cohen, Avner, Israel and the Bomb (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1998).

Solingen, Etel, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007) Chapter Nine “Israel” 187-212.

Feldman, Shai, Israeli Nuclear Deterrence: A Strategy for the 1980s (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1982).

Karpin, Michael, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and what that means for the World (New York, NY: Simon & Schuster, 2006).

March 14 – The Arabs who Failed (Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Syria)

Required

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Abrams, Eliot, “Bombing the Syrian Reactor: The Untold Story,” Commentary, February 2013, pp. 18-24. https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/bombing-the-syrian-reactor-the-untold-story/

Einhorn, Robert, “Egypt: Frustrated, But Still on a Non-Nuclear Course,” in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2004), pp. 43-82.

Riedel, Bruce, "Lessons of the Syrian Reactor," The National Interest, May-June Issue, 2013. https://nationalinterest.org/article/lessons-the-syrian-reactor-8380?page=0%2C2

Samore, Gary, “Iraq” in Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1994), pp 15-31.

Solingen, Etel, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007) Chapter Seven “Iraq” pp. 143-63.

Tobey, William, “A Message from Tripoli: How Libya Gave Up its WMD,” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,” December 3, 2014. http://thebulletin.org/message-tripoli-how-libya-gave-its wmd7834 .

Recommended

Blix, Hans, Disarming Iraq (New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 2004).

Bowen, Wyn Q., Libya and Nuclear Proliferation: Stepping back from the brink (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies Adelphi Paper 380, 2006).

Charles Duelfer, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, September 30, 2004. The full report, including the key findings and March 2005 addenda is available here: https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports 1/iraq_wmd_2004/index.html .

Fitzpatrick, Mark, Nuclear Programs in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008).

Obeidi, Mahdi, The Bomb in my Garden: The Secrets of Saddam’s Nuclear Mastermind (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2004).

Hamza, Khidhir, Saddam’s Bombmaker: The Terrifying Inside Story of the Iraqi Nuclear and Biological Weapons Agenda (New York, NY: Scribner, 2000).

March 21 – Iran: On the Cusp?Guest Lecture: Robert Einhorn, Senior FellowBrookings Institution

Required

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Albright, David, Heinonen, Olli, and Stricker, Andrea, “Breaking Up and Reorienting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program” (Washington, DC: Institute for Science and International Studies report, October 29, 2018). http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Reorienting_AMAD_Program_29Oct2018_Final.pdf

Albright, David, Heinonen, Olli, and Stricker, Andrea, “Iran’s Nuclear Archive Shows it Originally Planned to Build Five Nuclear Weapons by mid-2003” (Washington, DC: Institute for Science and International Studies, November 20, 2018). http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/The_Plan_Iran_Archive_20Nov2018_Final.pdf

Fitzpatrick, Mark, editor, Chapter 1 “Political and Diplomatic History of Iran’s Nuclear Programme” in Iran’s Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Capabilities: A Net Assessment (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies Strategic Dossier, 2011) pp. 7-46.

Gary Samore, lead author and editor, The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definitive Guide (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science an International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, August 2015), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/25599/iran_nuclear_deal.html

Sherman, Wendy, “How We Got the Iran Deal and Why We’ll Miss It,” Foreign Affairs, Sept-Oct 2018, pp. 186-197.

Recommended

Albright, David (et al.), Preventing Iran From Getting Nuclear Weapons: Constraining Its Future Nuclear Options, (Washington, DC: The Institute for Science and International Security, 2012).

Cubin, Shahram, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).

Kroenig, Matthew, A Time to Attack: The Looming Iranian Nuclear Threat (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014).

Mousavian, Hossein, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).

Parsi, Trita, Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2017).

Solomon, Jay, The Iran Wars (New York, NY: Random House, 2016) pp. 234-282.

March 28 – India and Pakistan: Nuclear Balance in South AsiaGuest Lecture: Professor Vipin Narang, MIT

Required:

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Clary, Christopher, “The Future of Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Program” in Tellis, Ashley et al eds. Asia in the Second Nuclear Age (Washington DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2013), pp. 130-160.

Ganguly, Sumit, “India’s Pathway to Pokhran II: The Prospects and Sources of New Delhi’s Nuclear Weapons Program,” in Brown, Michael E. (et al.) (eds.), Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010) pp. 147-175.

Hoyt, Timothy D., “Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture: Thinking about the Unthinkable?” Chapter10 (pp. 181-200) in in Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2012)

Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), Chapter Three “Pakistan” (pp. 55-93) and Chapter Four “India” (pp. 94-120).

Perkovich, George, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1999) Chapter 15 “The Bombs that Roared” pp. 404-443 and “Conclusion” Exploded Illusions of the Nuclear Age” pp. 444-468.

Recommended

Abbas, Hassan, Pakistan’s Nuclear Bomb: A Story of Defiance, Deterrence and Deviance (New Delhi, India: Center for Policy Research, 2018).

Ahmed, Samina, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Program: Turning Points and Nuclear Choices” in Brown, Michael E. (et al.) (eds.), in Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010) p. 176-202.

Kapur, Ashok, Pakistan’s Nuclear Development (New York, NY: Croom Helm, 1987).

Perkovich, George, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1999).

Talbott, Strobe, Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004).

April 4 – China and Japan: Nuclear Imbalance in East Asia

Required:

Fitzpatrick, Mark, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers (New York, NY: Routledge, 2016), Chapter Two “Japan” pp. 65-125.

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Lewis, Jeffrey, “China’s Nuclear Modernization: Surprise, Restraint, and Uncertainty” in Tellis, Ashley (et al) (eds.), Asia in the Second Nuclear Age (Washington DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2013), pp. 66-96.

Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014) Chapter 5 “China” (pp. 179-206).

Yeaw, Christopher T., Erickson, Andrews S., and Chase, Michael S., “The Future of China’s Nuclear Policy and Strategy”, Chapter Four (pp. 53-80) in Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Sage: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2012).

Recommended:

Campbell, Kurt and Sunohara, Tsuyoshi, “Japan: Thinking the Unthinkable” (pp. 218-253) in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2004).

Lewis, John and Xue, Litai, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1988).

Medeiros, Evan, “Evolving Nuclear Doctrine” in Bolt, Paul and Willner, Albert, eds. China’s Nuclear Future (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006) pp. 39-78.

Saunders, Phillip C., and Yuan, Jong-dong, “Strategic Force Modernization” in Bolt, Paul and Willner, Albert, eds. China’s Nuclear Future (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2006) pp. 79-118.

Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. “Thinking About the Unthinkable: Tokyo’s Nuclear Option”) in Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Sage: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2012) pp. 115-132.

April 11 – North and South Korea: Nuclear Imbalance on the PeninsulaGuest Lecture: Robert Gallucci, Georgetown UniversitySchool of Foreign Service

Required

Fitzpatrick, Mark, Chapter 4 “Disarmament Diplomacy with North Korea” in North Korean Security Challenges: A New Assessment (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies Strategic Dossier, 2011), pp 65-92.

Pollack, Jonathan D. and Reiss, Mitchell B. “South Korea: The Tyranny of Geography and the Vexations of History,” in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2004), pp. 254-292.

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Roehrig, Terence, “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program” in Yoshihara, Toshi and Holmes, James R. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Sage: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2012), pp. 81-98).

Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (January 20, 1992) https://2001-2009.state.gov/t/ac/rls/or/2004/31011.htm

U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework and Confidential Minute (October 21, 1994) https://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/aptagframe.pdf and https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2829751-1994-U-S-DPRK-Agreed-Framework-Confidential-Minute.html

Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six Party Talks (September 19, 2005) https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2829932-2005-September-19-Six-Party-Talks-Joint-Statement.html

Recommended

Cha, Victor, The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future (New York, NY: Harper-Collins, 2012), pp. 255-274.

Cha, Victor D. and Kang, David C. Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2005).

Chinoy, Mike, Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis (New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press, 2008).

Creekmore, Marion, Jr., A Moment of Crisis: Jimmy Carter, the Power of a Peacemaker and North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions (New York, NY: Public Affairs Books, 2006).

Fitzpatrick, Mark, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers (New York, NY: Routledge, 2016), Chapter One “Republic of Korea” pp. 17-63.

Litwak, Robert S., Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout (Washington, DC: Wilson Center, February 2017).

Oberdorfer, Donald and Carlin, Robert, The Two Koreas (New York, NY: Basic Books, 2014).

Pritchard, Charles, Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007).

Sigal, Leon, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998).

Wit, Joel, Poneman, Daniel, and Gallucci, Robert, Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004).

April 18 – Student Report Presentations (last day of class)

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