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Drive Market Share Gains -Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2010

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

Third Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Other Market Impacts• Minivan Battle• Orphan Brands• Horsepower vs MPG• Hybrid Share• Impact of Gas Prices


Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets

NationalFraud

Database

650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operationIncludes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events

OnlineActivity

DatabasesCredit

Databases

ConsumerMarketing Databases

Simmons National

Consumer Study

North AmericanVehicle

Database

Integrated Information Assets

50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categoriesMeasures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile700+ psychographic measuresEasily extrapolated to any target file

25 million Internet usersinteracting with one million Websites across 160+ industriesAverage of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year

Consumer2 million credit inquiries daily1.3 billion transaction updates/month99.9% system availability1.3 second response rate220 million credit active consumers50 million public records

Business22 million businesses

235 million consumers, 113 million households1,500+ data attributes per recordAttitudinal segments and touch-points3,200 public and proprietary sources110 million catalog buyers148 million magazine subscribers

Approximately 600,000 knownfraud records186+ million cross-industry credit applications215+ million consumer200 +demographic and credit records


VEHICLESIN

OPERATION


AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

Experian Automotive’s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S.

Quick Facts…

• There are 240,282,742 light duty vehicles on the road

• Up over 480,000 units from last quarter (+0.20%)

And up nearly 500,000 units vs. Q3 2009

• Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota

• Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord

• Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.3% vs. 49.7%)


Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year

Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

82 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less

82%Nearly 90 million 2001-2006 : aftermarket ‘sweet spot’


Current VIO – Vehicle Segment

Hybrid vehicles represent 0.74 percent of current VIO



Current VIO – Percent Share

Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

HyundaiNissan

Other

Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer

• Domestic brands represent more than 60 percent of all vehicles in operation


Import Brand VIO Share

2007 2008 2009 2010

VIO

Sha

reCurrent VIO – Domestic vs. Import Share

Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)


Horsepower Trends


Average Horsepower by Model Year


VEHICLE REGISTRATION


U.S. Automotive Market Overview

• Q3 2010 vs Q3 2009, new vehicle registrations decreased by nearly 78,000 units (2.7 percent )

• Q3 2009 included Cash for Clunkers• 690,000 units, 1/3 of Jul/Aug regs

12

Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009

2008 2009 2010

Cash for Clunkers


U.S. Market – New Vehicle Registrations

New Vehicle Registrations

Q1 and Q2 increasing gap

compared to prior quarters, Q3 2010 continuing trend in context of cash for clunkers in 2009


2008

2009

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

C4C


Used Vehicle Registrations

U.S. Market – Used Vehicle Registrations

Used vehicle registrations have dropped slightly compared to Q3 2009, as last four

quarters have been fairly consistent over prior year


2008

2009

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010


Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Diff. % ChangeGM 582,880 532,082 (50,798) -8.7%Toyota 445,265 449,919 4,654 1.0%Ford 472,178 443,511 (28,667) -6.1%Honda 327,686 309,978 (17,708) -5.4%Chrysler 276,778 286,270 9,492 3.4%Nissan 220,951 225,864 4,913 2.2%Hyundai 253,630 221,113 (32,517) -12.8%

New Vehicle Market Overview

New Vehicle Registrations – Q3 2010 vs. Q2 2010


• Chrysler had highest unit gain versus Q2 2010, up nearly 9,500 units (3.4 percent) and narrowing gap to Honda

• Nissan had second-highest unit and percentage point gain, followed by Toyota

• GM had the largest unit drop, down more than 50,000 units vs Q2 2010 (-8.7 percent)

• Hyundai had the largest percentage point drop, down 12.8 percent (32,500 units)

Corporation


Market ChangersN

ew R

egis

tratio

ns


Grand Cherokee up nearly

16,000 units

Ranked by Unit Change

RAV4 and Camry up combined

10,000 units


M&M’s (Market Movers)

Ranked by % change

New

Reg

istra

tions


Sportage up 3,213 units

Grand Cherokee up 15,874 units

Golf up 1,763 units

Nitro up 1,749 units


NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q3 Performance

• Numerous small and mid-size coupes and sedans entering market

• New entries represent more than 40,000 additional sales for 3rd quarter

New Vehicle RegistrationsSource: Experian Automotive


MARKET SHARE

OVERVIEW


Who is up? • Ford 1.2% share• Chrysler 0.5% share• Hyundai 0.4% share

GM

Ford

ToyotaHonda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2010

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down? • Toyota -1.3% share• Honda -0.5% share• GM -0.3% share

Q3 2010 YTD vs Q3 2009 YTD Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2009



Market Share Trend

21


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

2008 2009 2010


Q3 2010 YTD vs Q3 2009 YTD Market Share

22


Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The ‘Others’


Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Market Share

23


• Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Chrysler, Nissan

• Small / Mid-Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM

Market Share Analysis: Model Level


Market Share Analysis: Segment Level

Full Size Pickup

SUV -Large Minivan

Sport Car Touring

Small Car -

Economy

• Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q3 2010 when compared to Q2 2010

• Entry Level CUV, Small Car Budget, SUV Lower and Entry Level had strong increases

• Mid Range Car Lower and Small Car Economy had large market share drops


Mar

ket S

hare

Cha

nge

CUV –Entry Level

Small Car Budget

Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Market Share

SUV –Entry Level

SUV –Lower

Mid Range

Mid Range Car -

Lower


Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations

Import Brand Market Share

Mar

ket S

hare

2007 2008 2009 2010

Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share

Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon

Cash For Clunkers


Market Share Analysis:New Vehicle Registrations and VIO

Import Brand Market Share

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mar

ket S

hare


CUSTOMERLOYALTY


Loyalty Methodology

•Multiple Levels

Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.

Provides complete view of repurchase activity

Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.

Essentially tracking vehicle replacement

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Owned Vehicle:


Loyalty Types

•Multiple Levels

Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella

Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level. Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Corporate Loyalty Example:

Brand Loyalty Example:

Owned Vehicle:

Owned Vehicle:


Q3 2010 Corporate Loyalty

30

• Ford remains on top versus GM and Toyota in corporate loyalty – 3rd straight quarter on top

• Hyundai widens gap vs. Honda, nearing Toyota• Chrysler continues to increase

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Month

• Hyundai narrows gap to leaders

• Chrysler on upward trend

• GM and Ford ended quarter with rising loyalty

• Toyota loyalty stableSource: Experian Automotive

20102009


Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q3 2010


• Luxury brands represent eight out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty

• Jeep and Kia brands also show strong increases

• Mercedes-Benz had highest point gain, more than four percentage points

Q3 2010 vs Q2 2010 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Kia Forte

Ford Fusion

Ford Edge

Ford Flex

Ford Five Hundred

Ford Focus

Chevrolet Impala

Ford Escape

Kia Soul

Kia Sorento

Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

Q3 2010 Brand Loyalty

32


• Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with more than two out of three returning to the Kia brand

• Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty

• Kia had three out of top ten models

• Chevrolet Impala owners were ranked seventh in brand loyalty

Model Owned


2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net UnitsFord (471,254)GM (330,313)Chrysler (225,213)Honda 325,555Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda



Q3 2010: Who’s taking from Whom?

59,802

Net UnitsGM (161,831)Chrysler (143,836)Ford 50,079Toyota 113,814Honda 141,774

Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

Q3 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai

Hyundai16,775

Nissan

5,78

9

© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM


Ford

ToyotaHonda

Q3 2010: Net Migration to Nissan

Nissan8,488

5,78

9

Hyundai



Battle for Market Share

Hyundai

Nissan46.0%

35.4%

Corporate LoyaltyMarket Share

Q3 2010 Market Share and Loyalty


ADDITIONALINDUSTRYINSIGHTS


BATTLE OF THE

(MINI)VANS


Minivan Segment – Opportunity for new entries?


Total Market

Minivan Share

Share of Minivan Segment by Brand

Q3 2010 YTD Market Share


ORPHAN BRANDS


Orphan Brands – Are Owners Maintaining Loyalty?


2008 201020092007

• Mercury owners most loyal of recent orphan brands

• More Pontiac owners returned to market than Buick or Cadillac owners –

• These Pontiac owners netted as many GM sales as Buick and Cadillac owners


HORSEPOWER VS. M.P.G


Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon

• Since 1997:• 30+ percent

increase in HP• 15+ percent

increase in MPG

• CAFE standard: 34.1 mpg by 2016

• 20 percent increase vs 2010


HYBRID MARKET SHARE


46


Hybrid Market Share

2008 2009 2010


47


Hybrid Car Market

• Prius captured nearly 64 percent of all hybrid car sales in Q3 2010

• Combined, Toyota and Honda accounted for more than 90 percent of all hybrid car sales

Q3 2010 Market Share


48


Hybrid Option Share by Model

2008 2009 2010

Per

cent

Hyb

rid


49


Hybrid Option Share - Total

2008 2009 2010

Per

cent

Hyb

rid


IMPACT OF GAS PRICES


Mar

ket S

hare

Gas Prices vs. Vehicle Choices:Economy Car and Full Size Truck

Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

2008 20102009

• Gas prices have since been relatively stable, and Economy Car share has dropped to 10 percent

• Two mini-spikes in 2009 as gas prices had quick 40 and 60 cent per gallon increases

• Initial spike in Economy Car segment tied to 2008 gas price exceeding $4.00 per gallon

Economy Car Full Size Pickup

Gas

Pric

e pe

r Gal

lon


Mar

ket S

hare

Fuel Prices vs. Vehicle Choices:Hybrid Car and Large SUV

• Since peak share of 2.5 percent in mid-2009, hybrid share steady at 2.0 percent

2008 20102009

Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy

• Second increasing trend more closely tied to gas price increase thru 2009

• Short spike in hybrid car segment tied to 2008 gas price at $4.00+ per gallon

Gas

Pric

e pe

r Gal

lon

Hybrid Car Large SUV


Conclusions

Strong overall results for Q3 2010, even when compared to Q3 2009 (with Cash for Clunkers), and when compared to Q2 2010.Ford has gained market share for sixth consecutive quarter, up 1.2 percentage points. Chrysler gained market share for the first time in six quarters. Hyundai and Nissan continue to gain market share. While Toyota and GM lost share (more than two percentage points combined).Ford continues to generate highest corporate loyalty, on top for third straight quarter. Hyundai is nearing Toyota in terms of corporate loyalty.New hybrid and economy vehicles are entering a challenging, dynamic market. Demand can be volatile… a lot is riding on the future of gas prices.Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon have both increased over the past decade. What choices will consumers (and manufacturers) make as market heads to 34.1 m.p.g. CAFE standard in 2016?


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