driven to extremes has growth in automobile use ended? the national transportation systems center...
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Driven to ExtremesHas Growth in Automobile Use Ended?
The National Transportation Systems Center
Advancing transportation innovation for the public good
U.S. Department of Transportation
Research and Innovative Technology Administration
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
May 23, 2013
2
Background
This analysis is based on travel demand research sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information
Research focus is on estimating and forecasting vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours of travel
Note: the views and opinions expressed by Volpe in this presentation do not necessarily represent those of FHWA
3
Automobile Use No Longer Tracks GDP
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0 Automobile Travel and Real GDP
LDV VMT Real GDP
Ind
ex
(1
96
6 =
1)
4
This Recession Has Been Different
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 6090%
100%
110%
120%
VMT as a Percent of Pre-Recession LevelNov 1973 - Mar 1975 Jan-July 1980
July 1981 - Nov 1982 July 1990 - Mar 1991
Mar 2001 - Nov 2001 Dec 2007 - June 2009
Months Since Start of Recession
5
Who’s Driving Less? Almost All Men…
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Men
16-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+
6
…but Only Younger Women
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090
5,000
10,000
15,000
Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Women
16-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+
7
Some Causes Aren’t New Baby boom cohort began moving out of peak driving years
(mid-30s through mid-50s) in about 2000, and continues to do so
Rising household income boosted car ownership and use through the 1970s and 1980s, but its effect has weakened considerably since then
Pace of suburbanization has been slowing gradually for several decades
Costs of owning and maintaining a car rose rapidly during 1980s and 1990s
The highway building boom was over by 1980 Graduated licensing programs began to reduce teen driving in
the 1990s
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…but Others Are New Fraction of population holding jobs is down drastically since
the early 2000s, particularly among young adults Recent declines in income have been largest among
households where its effect on driving is strongest Gasoline prices up sharply since 2005, and much more volatile Young households’ debt burdens – primarily from student
loans – are higher than a decade ago, making home and car purchases difficult
Recent college graduates are having unprecedented difficulty finding quality jobs
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Declines in Driving Exactly Mirror Job Losses among Men
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent Employed by Age -- Men
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
10
…and it’s a Similar Story among Women
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percent Employed by Age -- Women
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
11
…but Even the Employed are Driving Less
16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76+0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Annual Miles Driven by Employment StatusEmployed -- 2009 Not Employed -- 2009
Employed -- 2001 Not Employed -- 2001
Age Category
12
Income Losses Have Been Largest where they Affect Driving the Most
< $10,000 $10,000 - $20,000
$20,000 - $30,000
$30,000 - $40,000
$40,000 - $50,000
$50,000 - $60,000
$60,000 - $70,000
$70,000 - $80,000
$80,000 - $100,000
> $100,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Household Income Category
An
nu
al M
iles
pe
r P
ers
on
Lowest Quintile
2nd Quintile
Middle Quintile
4th Quintile
Highest Quintile
13
Some Popular Explanations New Travel Choices
Increase in transit ridership since automobile use peaked accounts for less than 1% of decline in automobile travel
Increase in bicycle and walk trips only accounts for another 1% of the decline
Rise of Internet shopping Households average only 3 on-line purchases per month (vs. 40 shopping trips
by car), and 80% of on-line purchases require added truck travel for delivery Shopping trips were the only category of driving to increase in the last decade On-line shopping may still save some driving in search of specialized products
Substitution of teleworking for commuting Share of employed who work at home regularly increased from 3.5% in 1970
to 4.3% in 2010 Annual commute trips by car has remained at about 350 per worker for
decades
14
It’s too Early to Tell about Other Things
Growth in social media Little question that the young use them a lot more Do they really substitute for personal contact?
Resurgence in urban living So far, it seems concentrated among young, well-educated, high-income adults
(mostly without children), plus a few of the affluent retired Meanwhile, the rest of the population – and increasingly, their jobs –
continues to disperse
Car sharing as an alternative to ownership Data are still scarce, but car sharing and other short-term rental arrangements
appear to be growing rapidly But it’s not yet clear whether they substitute for car ownership or supplement
it, so we can’t yet tell whether they raise or lower total auto use
15
Will Growth in Driving Resume? A “bounce” in driving is likely once the economy finally recovers
fully, but that could take a couple of more years Even if growth in driving does resume, its pace will continue to
slow down over the future Most future growth in driving will result from population
increases, not from increased driving per Capita Some major uncertainties remain
Income and employment prospects among the young and lower-income households
Future immigration rates and auto use patterns among recent immigrants Employment levels and auto use among older Americans, particularly women How household locations adjust to continuing suburbanization of jobs adjust How driving responds to continuing increases in car ownership costs and fuel
prices
16
Why Should We Care?
Highway Trust Fund revenues are unlikely to support historical investment levels, but this is happening already
Congestion is unlikely to grow dramatically, except in selected locations
Long-range transportation planning process is oriented toward supporting capacity expansion to accommodate growth, and may need to be re-thought
17
Income Losses Have Been Largest where they Affect Driving the Most
Time Period
Lowest Quintile
Second Quintile
Middle Quintile
Fourth Quintile
Highest Quintile
1970-80 9% 0% 2% 7% 8%
1980-90 7% 8% 8% 11% 20%
1990-2000 11% 10% 11% 14% 28%
2000-10 -15% -11% -8% -5% -6%
Changes in Mean Household Income (adjusted for inflation)
Source: computed from data reported in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Income Tables, Table H-3, Mean Household Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent, All Races: 1967 to 2011.