Driven to ExtremesHas Growth in Automobile Use Ended?

The National Transportation Systems Center

Advancing transportation innovation for the public good

U.S. Department of TransportationResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationJohn A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

May 23, 2013

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Background This analysis is based on travel demand research sponsored by

the Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information

Research focus is on estimating and forecasting vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours of travel

Note: the views and opinions expressed by Volpe in this presentation do not necessarily represent those of FHWA

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Automobile Use No Longer Tracks GDP

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0 Automobile Travel and Real GDPLDV VMT Real GDP

Inde

x (1

966

= 1)

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This Recession Has Been Different

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 6090%

100%

110%

120%

VMT as a Percent of Pre-Recession LevelNov 1973 - Mar 1975 Jan-July 1980July 1981 - Nov 1982 July 1990 - Mar 1991Mar 2001 - Nov 2001 Dec 2007 - June 2009

Months Since Start of Recession

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Who’s Driving Less? Almost All Men…

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Men

16-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+

6

…but Only Younger Women

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090

5,000

10,000

15,000

Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Women16-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+

7

Some Causes Aren’t New Baby boom cohort began moving out of peak driving years (mid-

30s through mid-50s) in about 2000, and continues to do so Rising household income boosted car ownership and use

through the 1970s and 1980s, but its effect has weakened considerably since then

Pace of suburbanization has been slowing gradually for several decades

Costs of owning and maintaining a car rose rapidly during 1980s and 1990s

The highway building boom was over by 1980 Graduated licensing programs began to reduce teen driving in

the 1990s

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…but Others Are New Fraction of population holding jobs is down drastically since

the early 2000s, particularly among young adults Recent declines in income have been largest among

households where its effect on driving is strongest Gasoline prices up sharply since 2005, and much more volatile Young households’ debt burdens – primarily from student

loans – are higher than a decade ago, making home and car purchases difficult

Recent college graduates are having unprecedented difficulty finding quality jobs

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Declines in Driving Exactly Mirror Job Losses among Men

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percent Employed by Age -- Men16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

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…and it’s a Similar Story among Women

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percent Employed by Age -- Women

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

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…but Even the Employed are Driving Less

16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76+0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Annual Miles Driven by Employment StatusEmployed -- 2009 Not Employed -- 2009Employed -- 2001 Not Employed -- 2001

Age Category

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Income Losses Have Been Largest where they Affect Driving the Most

< $10,000 $10,000 - $20,000

$20,000 - $30,000

$30,000 - $40,000

$40,000 - $50,000

$50,000 - $60,000

$60,000 - $70,000

$70,000 - $80,000

$80,000 - $100,000

> $100,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Household Income Category

Ann

ual M

iles

per P

erso

n

Lowest Quintile

2nd Quintile

Middle Quintile

4th QuintileHighest Quintile

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Some Popular Explanations New Travel Choices

Increase in transit ridership since automobile use peaked accounts for less than 1% of decline in automobile travel

Increase in bicycle and walk trips only accounts for another 1% of the decline Rise of Internet shopping

Households average only 3 on-line purchases per month (vs. 40 shopping trips by car), and 80% of on-line purchases require added truck travel for delivery

Shopping trips were the only category of driving to increase in the last decade On-line shopping may still save some driving in search of specialized products

Substitution of teleworking for commuting Share of employed who work at home regularly increased from 3.5% in 1970

to 4.3% in 2010 Annual commute trips by car has remained at about 350 per worker for

decades

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It’s too Early to Tell about Other Things Growth in social media

Little question that the young use them a lot more Do they really substitute for personal contact?

Resurgence in urban living So far, it seems concentrated among young, well-educated, high-income adults

(mostly without children), plus a few of the affluent retired Meanwhile, the rest of the population – and increasingly, their jobs –

continues to disperse Car sharing as an alternative to ownership

Data are still scarce, but car sharing and other short-term rental arrangements appear to be growing rapidly

But it’s not yet clear whether they substitute for car ownership or supplement it, so we can’t yet tell whether they raise or lower total auto use

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Will Growth in Driving Resume? A “bounce” in driving is likely once the economy finally recovers

fully, but that could take a couple of more years Even if growth in driving does resume, its pace will continue to

slow down over the future Most future growth in driving will result from population

increases, not from increased driving per Capita Some major uncertainties remain

Income and employment prospects among the young and lower-income households

Future immigration rates and auto use patterns among recent immigrants Employment levels and auto use among older Americans, particularly women How household locations adjust to continuing suburbanization of jobs adjust How driving responds to continuing increases in car ownership costs and fuel prices

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Why Should We Care? Highway Trust Fund revenues are unlikely to support historical

investment levels, but this is happening already Congestion is unlikely to grow dramatically, except in selected

locations Long-range transportation planning process is oriented

toward supporting capacity expansion to accommodate growth, and may need to be re-thought

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Income Losses Have Been Largest where they Affect Driving the Most

Time Period

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Highest Quintile

1970-80 9% 0% 2% 7% 8%

1980-90 7% 8% 8% 11% 20%

1990-2000 11% 10% 11% 14% 28%

2000-10 -15% -11% -8% -5% -6%

Changes in Mean Household Income (adjusted for inflation)

Source: computed from data reported in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Income Tables, Table H-3, Mean Household Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent, All Races: 1967 to 2011.