driverless future challenges and opportunities final
TRANSCRIPT
A Driverless Future?Challenges & OpportunitiesTPS – Dublin City Council Wood Quay
February 7th 2017John Holland
Contents
Threefold Services Driverless Cars – Key BenifitsLevels of AutonomyNew Technology Adoption Levels of Autonomy over timeAutonomous – Key Challenges 100’s of Autonomous trials globally National Movers & shakers Action really is needed nowSome Interesting Video Links
Threefold ServicesServices LinesConsulting
Engineering Design
Program Management
Property & Estate Management
Services AreasMobile Network Convergence & Consolidation5G & Fibre DeploymentElectric & Smart vehicles- Connected Car
Battery Storage TechnologiesHydrogen Fuel cells
Smart Meter
Green Tech-Solar/ Wind
Datacentre infrastructure
Market SectorsTelecommunications & ICT
Energy, Utilities & AutomotiveGovernment & Local Government
Threefold has completed projects and assignments in Ireland, UK, Norway, Australia, India,The Caribbean, Switzerland and South Africa.
Driverless* cars – Key BenefitsSocial & Environmental• Safety - Human error is recognised as the cause ~90% of road accidents
• Social inclusion – Elderly, blind, disabled, rural, youth
• Lower pollution-de-carbonisation of transportation• De-cluttering of streetscape and roadscapes e.g. road signs, gantries even traffic lights• Efficient integrated transport systems
• Less commuting stress
•Better use of urban space
•Driving time = personal or family time
Economic• Capital efficiency - Car is second most expensive possession and utilisation is ~5-7%
• Safety - Economic cost of road accidents in 2010 in the US was $277billion
• Morgan Stanley estimate full autonomous transport would save $5.6 trillion annually
• Top five OEMs spent $46 billion on R&D in 2015
*Fully Autonomous
•Driving time = work time
Levels of Autonomy
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
High Automation
SAELevel
5Full
AutomationNHTSA and SAE Levels of Automation
Function-specific
AutomationDriver
Assistance
CombinedFunction
AutomationPartial
Automation
Specific environment Self-
Driving AutomationConditional Automation
Full Self-Driving Automation
NHTSA Level 4
ACC
ESC
ACC
LKA
V2V
Platoon++ AI
DLNN
EBS
New Technology AdoptionAll new innovations have challenges and take time to be fully appreciated and adopted
Technophobia and resistance to change is a well know phenomenonwith some justification
We often know with a high degree of certainty thata technology willbe adopted, we just don’t have certainty on when!
Levels of Autonomy over timeHands off, Feet off
Brain Off Incentives Off
Early Adoption
Becoming Mainstream
Ubiquity
2016 - 2025• Increasing automation of driving functions, even on affordable cars
• Adaptive Cruise Control, Automatic Emergency Breaking, Automatic Lane keeping, Pedestrian collision avoidance
• Increased charging infrastructure and government incentives
• AV highway driving• Innovator entrepreneurs start to hire out AVs
• AV Taxi companies, beginning of taxi industry disruption
2025 - 2035•Accidents/collisions significantly reduce
• Fully autonomous vehicles start to become mainstream
• Bus service disruption- segregated or guided bus-ways become fully driverless bringing costs down
• AV city & B-road driving
• Vehicle to vehicle, and vehicle to infrastructure communication technology matures
• Vehicles on demand - no reduction in availability or quality of services
2035 - on• Urban road-space optimisation - narrower lanes, tighter intersection etc.
• Reduced need for urban parking - re-inventing/relocating car parks, on-street parking space for other uses (walking,cycling, market stalls)
• Elimination of accidents/collisions
Autonomous – Some Key ChallengesLegislation & regulation• EU legislation
‘driver’ must be in control – local legislation can redefine ‘driver’
• Trolley dilemma
Politics, Industrial Relations etc• Many stakeholders.
Consensus will be difficult. Early dialogue and planning to minimise issues
Technology• Technology at
early stages• No internationally
agreed standards
Borders•Brexit•LHD/RHD
Cost• Falling rapidly• Incentives will l be
needed to seed market
Infrastructure planning• Over provision/
under provision• Evolution of planning,
knowledge and trainingSecurity•Cyber security•Privacy•Failure
scenarios
Insurance• Very big changes -
Insured “driver”• Big reductions in
claims but also revenues
Introduction/ Transition• Acceptance• Driver behaviorOther downsides• Lower tax
revenues• Less organ
donors
100’s of Autonomous trials globallySingapore:Driverless Cabs Since September 2016
Pitsburg:Uber Driverless Cabs Since September 2016
Tokyo:Driverless Cars For 2020 Olympics
Beijing:Baidu Autonomous Cars Commercial by 2019
Milton Keyns: Public Driverless Car Trials Oct 2016
Paris:Driverless Bus Trials January 2017
Governments around the world are increasing focus & investment
National Movers & shakers
U.S.$4 Billion over next 10 years to Encourage Autonomous/Driverless Cars – WSJ January 2016
NTA Transport Strategyfor the Greater DublinArea 2016 – 2035: No reference to Autonomous/Driverless cars!
Action in Ireland is needed nowStart Stakeholder dialogue as soon as possible• Department of Transport Tourism & Sport• Department of Jobs Enterprise and Innovation
• Department of An Taoiseach• Department of Finance
• NTA & TII• RSA• OEM’s
Develop a National Strategy
• Legislation/regulation to support trials• Funding and directives to encourage and promote trials and pilots• Evolve strategyand legislation based on international & national learning’s
• Tie all elements of our transportation strategy together under a single entity
• There are undoubtedly huge benefits to society from autonomous vehicles
•The huge effortto resolve the challenges will be worth it!
• Ireland may not be at the forefront, but without action a better quality of life for many as well as our global competitiveness will be damaged.Priority #1: Create the right environment through
regulation/Legislation
Some Interesting Links
SAE On-Road Automated Driving (ORAD) Comitee http://profiles.sae.org/tevavs/
NHTSA https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSmTF6KoUb8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ96wnza12E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ5bHAcnjzs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5O4Yl6ZB4k
Thank you for listening