drought risk analysis methods, indicators, and applications francesco tonini phd candidate at sfrc...
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Drought Risk AnalysisMethods, Indicators, and Applications
Francesco ToniniPhD candidate at SFRC – GIS concentration11/07/2012
Who Am I ?
• Born in Florence, Italy
• B.Sc. Statistics & Information Systems (University of Florence)
• M.Sc. Statistics for Biomedicine, the Environment, and Technology (University of Rome “La Sapienza”)
Present:Ph.D. candidate @ SFRC-Geomatics(University of Florida)
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Indicators
4. Application: extreme values of NDVI variations in South Tigray, Ethiopia
Credits: “African Tsunami” cartoon by Alberto Sabat
IntroductionDifferences with other extreme meteorological events:
1. Onset & end of a drought are difficult to determine (currently the least predictable)
2. No universal definitions: quantification of impact and provision for relief far more difficult
3. Greatest detrimental impact in the 20th century. Often on a large scale 1st for number of people affected
4. Human activities can directly trigger a drought: overfarming, excessive irrigation, deforestation, over-exploitation of available water, erosion
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Introduction (cont.)
NASA’s Earth Observatory• Agricultural drought: soil lacks
moisture that a specific crop would need at a specific time
• Meteorological drought: negative deviations of long-term precipitation from the norm
• Hydrological drought: lack of sufficient surface and subsurface water supplies
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Introduction (cont.)
• Socio-economic drought: water scarcity starts affecting people’s lives
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Introduction (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center http://www.drought.unl.edu/
Introduction (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Precipitation
Runoff
Soil Moisture
Streamflow
Ground Water
Methods
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Methods (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
• Assessment of drought conditions is more accurate when the variable of interest is measured in situ
• Ideally, ground stations would be uniformly located and closely spaced in order to get the best information
• Costs associated with a dense spatial coverage are high (economic & human resources availability)
Methods (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
• Existing literature suggests several methods that have been developed to measure different types of drought
• Drought indicators can be divided into two main categories: ground-based or satellite-based, depending on their derivation
Indicators
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Ground-based Indicators
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Meteorological drought: defined on the basis of degree of dryness
• Indicators expressed in terms of rainfall deficit in relation to some average amount & duration of drought period
• Must be considered as region specific (thresholds for that study area)
• Most drive by rainfall variations: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)Deciles
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) -developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s-
• Index based on supply-demand concept of water balance equation
• It provides measurements of moisture conditions that were standardized to facilitate comparison between locations and months
• Calculation based on precipitation, temperature, and available water content (AWC) of the soil
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Most effective in determining long-term drought (i.e. a matter of several months)
• Spatial and temporal presentation of historical droughts
CONS:
• Not as good with conditions for short-term drought (i.e. a matter of weeks)
• Must have sufficient precipitation and temperature data available• Snowfall, snowcover, and frozen ground are not accounted for (may not
be accurate in winter or spring) • Tends to underestimate runoff conditions
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -developed by Mckee et al. 1993-
• Based on the consideration that a deficit of precipitation has different impact on ground water, reservoir storage, soil moisture, snowpack, and streamflow
• Most common drought monitoring index• Drought onset & duration• SPI is the number of standard deviations left (drought)
or right (wet) from 0
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Frequencies of extreme drought events are comparable between different locations
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Simplicity (only rainfall data required)• Variable time scale (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological drought)• Standardization (frequency of extreme drought events at any location
and time scale are consistent)
CONS:
• Suitable theoretical probability distribution, which can model raw data• Extreme droughts (over longer period) occur with same frequency on all
locations – SPI cannot identify drought prone regions• Areas with small seasonal precipitation – misleading large positive or
negative SPI values may result
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Deciles –developed by Gibbs and Maher, 1967-
• Groups monthly precipitation occurrences into deciles so that, by definition, “much lower than normal” weather cannot occur more often than 20% of the time
• Easy to calculate and requires less data and fewer assumptions than the Palmer Drought Severity Index
• Used in Australia: farmers and ranchers can only request government assistance if the drought is shown to be an event that occurs only once in 20–25 years
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Provides an accurate statistical measurement of precipitation
CONS:
• Accurate calculations require a long climatic record
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Agricultural drought: crop needs
• Links various categories of meteor. & hydrol. drought to agricultural impacts
• Focused primarily on soil water deficits and differences between actual and potential evapotranspiration (PET)
• A good indicator should account for variable susceptibility of crops during different stages of crop development (i.e. from emergence to maturity)
• Requires calculation of water balance on weekly scale during growing season
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Crop Moisture Index (CMI) –developed by Palmer 1968-
• Derivative of PDSI. Developed to assess short-term moisture supply over major crop-producing areas
• Uses a meteorological approach to monitor week-to-week crop condition
• Based on the mean temperature and total precipitation for each week within a climate division, as well as the CMI value from the previous week.
• CMI looks at the top 5 feet of the soil layer
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Identifies potential agricultural droughts
• Responds rapidly to changing conditions. It can detect drought sooner than PDSI
CONS:
• Not a good long-term drought monitoring tool. CMI’s rapid response to changing short-term conditions may provide misleading information about long-term conditions
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Hydrological drought: effects of periods of rain shortfall on surface and subsurface water supply
• Groundwater drought is outlined by lower than average annual recharge for more than one year
• Groundwater levels are good indicators in an acquifer area
• Hydrological drought sets slower and lasts longer compared to meteorological drought
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Palmer Hydrological Drought Severity Index (PHDSI) –developed by Karl & Knight, 1985-
• Derived from the PDSI
• Based on moisture inflow (precipitation), outflow, and storage, and does not take into account the long-term trend
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Officially used by National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to determine the precipitation needed for drought termination and amelioration which has a PHDI equal to -0.5 and -2.0 consecutively
CONS:
• The PHDI is developed from precipitation, outflow, and storage. PHDI may change more slowly than PDSI and it has sluggish response for drought
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) –developed by Shafer and Dezman, 1982-
• Used for frequency analysis to normalize long-term data such as precipitation, snow pack, stream flow, and reservoir level
• Designed to complement the Palmer Index for moisture conditions across the state of Colorado
• Shafer and Dezman described it as “mountain water dependent”, in which mountain snowpack is a major component
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
PROS:
• Represents water supply conditions unique to each basin
CONS:
• Changing a data collection station or water management requires that new algorithms be calculated, and the index is unique to each basin, which limits inter-basin comparisons
Indicators
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Satellite-based Indicators
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Rainfall Estimate (RFE) –developed by Xie and Arkin, 1997-
• Developed to estimate precipitation over Africa and complement the information available from the sparse network of ground stations
• Combines information on cloud temperature and cold cloud persistence with rainfall measured by rain gauge stations
• Measuring total rainfall at the end of a season has proven to be too crude of an indicator for estimating the potential impact of rainfall deficits on production and livelihoods
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) –developed by Frere and Popov, 1986-
• Meaningful indicator of how a shortage of rainfall may impact crop yields and the availability of pasture
• Monitors water deficits throughout the growing season, and captures the impact of timing, amount and distribution of rainfall on staple annual rain-fed crops
• Basis on many drought early warning tools for the continent
• RFE data is used as the primary input into the WRSI model
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Persendt (2009) divides satellite-based drought indicators into three groups:
(i) Indices based on the state of the vegetation, extrapolated using the reflective channels:
-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
(ii) Indices based on surface brightness temperature, extrapolated from the thermal channels:
-Temperature Condition Index (TCI)
(iii) Indices based on a combination of (i) and (ii):-Ratio between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and NDVI, Vegetation Health Index (VHI)
Indicators (cont.)
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) –developed by Tucker, 1979-
NDVI = (NIR - VIS) / (NIR + VIS)
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
“Mapping return levels of absolute NDVI variations for the assessment of drought risk in Ethiopia”
Tonini, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Hochmair, H. 2012. Int. J. App. Earth Obs. & Geoinf., 18, p. 564-572.
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Study Area
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Available Data
• The Vision on Technology (VITO) agency processes all data received from the vegetation instrument on board the SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 satellite, archives the processed data, compiles the image catalogue, and forward finished products to users
• Spatial resolution 1 km x 1 km (0.8 degrees), with a spatial accuracy equal to 300 meters
• Temporal resolution: April 1998 to March 2009
• 10-day mean composite. Dekadal frequence
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Available Data
Absolute Difference NDVI (i.e. ADVI)
• Shift of the actual value from the historical average of the same reference dekad, thus showing positive or negative anomalies
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Extreme Value Theory Model Approaches
The extreme value theory deals with the modeling of extreme observations
1. Block Maxima: Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to model values found in the tails of the distribution of observed values
2. Peak-over-threshold (POT): Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to model all observations exceeding a certain threshold
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Exploratory Data Analysis: ACF & PACF on raw dekadal data
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Exploratory Data Analysis: ACF & PACF on montly minima
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
Results: computation of ADVI Return Levels
• N-month ADVI return levels are values associated with the return period 1/N and are expected to be exceeded on average once every N months
• For example, if N=10 (based on your reference time unit, in this case a month since we are using monthly minima):
• 10-month RL are those values with a 10% probability of being exceeded in any month. 100-months RL (~8 years) with probability 1%. 1000-months RL (~88 years) with probability 0.1% etc.
Application
1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Indicators 4. Application
(a) 10-month (b) 100-month (c) 1000-month RL for ADVI
Thank you for your attention!
…Questions?
For further information, please contact:[email protected]
Set of R functions developed are freely available:https://github.com/f-tonini/Extreme-Values-For-Gridded-
Data