OBSERVATIONS FROM DFID’S EXPERIENCE in FRAGILE AND CONFLICT AFFECTED STATES

Mark Harvey, Strategic Infrastructure Adviser,DFID-Afghanistan

Training on Designing Socially Inclusive Transport Session 12

Transport, poverty and social inclusion

1. DFID – who we are, what we do and why are we increasing our programmes in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS)

2. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (1)?– Conflict affects poverty reduction– Transport affects poverty reduction– So how do conflict and transport interact?

3. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (2)?– Stabilisation– Early development– Transition– Transformation

Main messages:

1.5 billion people live in countries

affected by repeated cycles of political

and criminal violence

Strengthen institutions and governance

that provide citizen security, justice and

jobs; alleviate international stresses

World Development Report 2011:Conflict, Security and Development

International Momentum on Conflict

• Not one low income country coping with problems of weak governance, poverty and violence has yet achieved an MDG

• 1.5 billion people of our now 7 billion peopled planet live in areas of affected by fragility, conflict, or large-scale organised criminal violence

• But, deaths from civil wars are declining• However, the rate of violent onset in countries with a previous

conflict has been increasing since 1960s – every civil war since 2003 was in a country that had a previous civil war

• Poverty reduction lags 2.7% for every 3 years a country is affected by major violence

• A country unaffected directly, loses 0.7% of GDP every year a neighbour is in conflict

• Average cost of civil war is more than 30 years of GDP• Trade takes 20 years to recover

WDR, 2011

Why we work in fragile and conflict-affected states

Conflict Prevention and Development – fragile states are furthest away from meeting the Millennium Development Goals

Conflict Prevention and National Security – addressing the root causes of problems affecting the UK

DFID is scaling up its work in fragile states – 30% commitment, 21 of 28 focus countries are fragile states

Strategic Context:- “Building Stability Overseas” Strategy

DFID Fragile States and Conflict Group

Transport, poverty and social inclusion

1. DFID – who we are, what we do and why are we increasing our programmes in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS)

2. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (1)?– Conflict affects poverty reduction– Transport affects poverty reduction– So how do conflict and transport interact?

3. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (2)?– Stabilisation– Early development– Transition– Transformation

Conflict affects poverty reduction:– Conflict undermines growth and the process of poverty reduction

– it threatens physical assets, impedes the movement of goods and people, reduces incentives to invest

– Violence and civil war impose huge economic costs on a country and its neighbours.

– High economic costs are accompanied by high poverty costs – a breakdown of public services, economies and state institutions

Transport affects poverty reduction– Because it does the opposite of the above – creates assets,

facilitates movement of goods, people and services, encourages investment

– Reduces costs of transport services to firms and people.– Reduces travel time for access to services and business

opportunities

Broader impacts – Transport infrastructure as a symbol of governance - visible sign– Inclusive social development

• Provide income and welfare opportunities• Longer-term - community participation and ownership

Transport / conflict interactions– In some cases – questions over whether roads facilitate or

mitigate insurgency– Challenge of assessing the impact of improved transport

infrastructure – difficult to disaggregate

Evidence of the Contribution to Stabilisation of Transport Infrastructure

Transport, poverty and social inclusion

1. DFID – who we are, what we do and why are we increasing our programmes in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS)

2. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (1)?– Conflict affects poverty reduction– Transport affects poverty reduction– So how do conflict and transport interact?

3. How does (transport) infrastructure fit in (2)?– Stabilisation– Early development– Transition– Transformation

Time

Lev

elof

Supp

ort

Stabilisation Development

Media and Political support

available

Level of Support

Capacity of Gov. and pop.

Capacity v. Funding

Funding

• Mid 2008 - PM & SoS announcements• Sep 2008 - Helmand Infrastructure Scoping Study (HISS)• Mar 2009 - launch of design process• Jun 2010 - contract for Lashkar Gah - Gereshk (LGRIP) road, Contract #1• 2010-2011 - RICH, 2012 RRMP, 2012 SEIH, mentoring• 2012 planning for transition - CB and TVET, LGRIP Contract #1 completed• 2013 - LGRIP Contract #2 under procurement• 2014 - LGRIP Contract #2 not yet awarded

Helmand PRT Development Team

4.ADB &

NationalPrograms

Stabilisation to Development through Transition to the Transformation Decade

3.HelmandSpecificparts ofNational

Programs

2.DFID

HelmandProjects1.

UK CFHelmand

MoDDFID

FCO

LASHKAR GAH to GERESHK Rd, 45 km

2009 Surveys complete2010 Detailed design complete2010 Proposing 2 contracts2010 First contract award, June2011 MPW question design2012 First 11km started2013 First 11km completed2013 MPW procurement for 32km2014 Re-bidding for 32km

Musa Qal’ah, under CF control, UK to US handover spring 2010

Kajaki, under CF control, not a DC for stabilisation activity

Now Zad, taken under CF control by US late 2009

NES / Gereshk, under CF control

Nad-e Ali, DC taken under CF control by UK, Dec 08, further

cleared mid 09, stabilised early 2010

Bost / Lashkar Gah, under CF control

Marjah, was Nad-e Ali district, DC taken under CF control by

US, early 10, new district Apr 10

Sangin, under CF control, UK to US handover?

Nawa, under CF control from Sep 09, UK to US handed over

Garmser, under CF, UK to US handed over

Khan Neshin, taken under CF control by US late 2009