dtc mission
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Bridging the Valley of Death: Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations. Jamie K. Wolff 1 , Louisa B. Nance 1 , Brad S. Ferrier 2 , Clifford F. Mass 3 , Barbara G. Brown 1 and Ying- Hwa Kuo 1 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jamie K. Wolff1, Louisa B. Nance1, Brad S. Ferrier2, Clifford F. Mass3, Barbara G. Brown1 and Ying-Hwa Kuo1
Joint 46th CMOS/25th WAF/21st NWP AMS ConferenceMay 29, 2012
Bridging the Valley of Death:Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations
1National Center for Atmospheric Research/Research Applications Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center2National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center3University of Washington
DTC MissionThe fundamental purpose of the DTC is to facilitate the
interaction & transition of NWP technology between research & operations.
DTC facilitates:O2R transition by making the operational NWP systems available
to the research community & providing community user supportR2O transition by performing testing & evaluation of new NWP
innovations in a functionally similar operational environment over an extended period
Interaction between research & operational NWP communities through the organization of community workshops/meetings on important topics of interest to the NWP community & hosting a DTC Visitor Program
DTC strives to be an effective and efficient community facility for the transition of innovations in NWP between
research and operations.
Testing Protocol MotivationWide range of NWP science innovations under
development in the research communityTesting protocol imperative to advance new
innovations through the research to operations (R2O) process efficiently and effectively.Three stage process:
1)Proving ground for research community
2)Comprehensive T&E performed by the DTC
3)Pre-Implementation testing at Operational Centers
Testing Protocol – Stage IProving ground for research communityCode development; Initial stage of testingMesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)Communicate results to the DTC; Nominate for
Stage II testingContribution of new technique into WRF
repository encouragedWork with WRF Developers Committee (contact:
[email protected])Apply for DTC Visitor Program support (see:
http://www.dtcenter.org/visitors) =–
Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)Why: Assist the research community in efficiently
demonstrating the merits of a new developmentProvide a common framework for testing; allow for direct
comparisonsWhat: Mechanism to assist research community with
initial stage of testingProvide model input and observational datasets to utilize
for testingEstablish and publicize baseline results for select
operational modelsWhere: Hosted by the DTC; served through Repository
for Archiving, Managing and Accessing Diverse DAta (RAMADDA)
http://dtcenter.org/repository
RAMADDA View (http://dtcenter.org/repository)
MMET Cases Initial solicitation of cases from DTC Science Advisory Board
Members and Physics Workshop Participants – great response and enthusiasm towards endeavor
Target cases during initial year20090228 – Mid-Atlantic snow storm where North American
Mesoscale (NAM) model produced high QPF shifted too far north20090311 – High dew point predictions by NAM over the upper
Midwest and in areas of snow20091007 –High-Resolution Window (HIRESW) runs
underperformed compared to coarser NAM model20091217 – “Snowapocalypse ‘09”: NAM produced high QPF
over mid-Atlantic, lack of cessation of precipitation associated with decreasing cloud top over eastern North Carolina
20100428-0504 – Historic Tennessee flooding associated with an atmospheric river event
20110518-26 – Extended period of severe weather outbreak covering much of the mid-west and into the eastern states later in the period
20111128 – Cutoff low over SW US; NAM had difficulties throughout the winter of breaking down cutoff lows and progressing them eastward
20120203-05 – Snow storm over Colorado, Nebraska, etc.; NAM predicted too little precipitation in the warm sector and too much snow north of front (persistent bias)
“Snowpocalypse 2009”Nor’easter that became a major snowstorm for the East
Coast of the U.S with record-breaking snowfall totals for several major cities, including D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia.MMET case study for 20091217 12 UTC out to 84 hours
May 21-26, 2011 Tornado OutbreakDeadly outbreak across the Midwest and
Southern regions of the U.S., including the Joplin tornado (May 22) and two “High Risk” days (May 24-25)Extended time period included in MMET to 20110518-26 in order to capture additional weaker warm-season convection prior to outbreak
Confirmed TornadoesTotal EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5242 108 90 31 8 3 2
Testing Protocol – Stage IIComprehensive T&E performed by the DTCMaintain a neutral position in
order to provide a trusted, unbiased assessment
Conduct comprehensive testing for a broad range of weather regimesRun end-to-end system composed
of community codesFunctionally similar to operational
environmentEvaluate based on extensive
objective verification statisticsTraditional scoresNew, relevant verification
techniques (e.g., spatial methods)Statistical significance assessment
Testing Protocol – Stage IIIPre-Implementation testing at Operational Centers
Ultimate decision to proceed with pre-implementation testing is made by the Operational Centers and is based on a variety of factors, including:Forecast performanceComputational requirements
Testing specifics depend on the target production configuration, but may include:Complex data assimilation testingInitial condition diversity testing for ensemble
members
ConclusionEstablish data sets for nine initial MMET casesPublicize more information on R2O testing
protocol and MMET at:http://dtcenter.org/eval/mmet
Contact information for DTC MMET TeamJamie Wolff [email protected] Michelle Harrold [email protected] Tara Jensen [email protected] Tricia Slovacek [email protected]
Acknowledgements: The DTC is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Air Force Weather Agency, and the National Center for Atmospheric
Science (NCAR). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.