due diligence checklist: how to identify the dominant …...due diligence checklist: how to identify...
TRANSCRIPT
Due diligence checklist: how to identify the
dominant elements to pre-qualify your site
for its solar potential
Nic van der Westhuizen +27 82 8833 683
Project Manager [email protected]
Tritec Energy
South Africa
CONTENTS
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Dominating elements for solar qualification
2. Business case - Residential / small commercial
– 1 phase vs 3 phase – the effects with no export setup
3. LCOE energy evaluations – Commercial property ( If time allows)
1. Client needs
2. Irradiation
3. Roof direction and inclination
4. Tracker or fixed tilt
5. Major loss factors: Temp and soiling factor
6. Other factors
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
– What is the requirement?
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
– What is the requirement?
• Financial benefits– South Africa - Grid tied
– Africa - Hybrid and Off grid
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
– What is the requirement?
• Financial benefits– South Africa - Grid tied
– Africa - Hybrid and Off grid
• Necessity for energy
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
– What is the requirement?
• Financial benefits– South Africa - Grid tied
– Africa - Hybrid and Off grid
• Necessity for energy– Client has money - Put in proper solution
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. Client needs
– What is the requirement?
• Financial benefits– South Africa - Grid tied
– Africa - Hybrid and Off grid
• Necessity for energy– Client has money - Put in proper solution
– Client does not have money Help the client to make more money
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
2. Irradiance
• Different components of irradiation
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
2. Irradiance
• Different components of irradiation
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
2. Irradiance
• Why is irradiation more in Upington vs Durban
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
2. Irradiance
• Why is irradiation more in Upington vs Durban
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
2. Irradiance
• Why is irradiation more in Upington vs Durban
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
3. Roof direction and inclination
• Optimum inclination is effected by your latitude
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Cape Town Nairobi, Kenya
3. Roof direction and inclination
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
4. Tracker or fixed tilt?
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
4. Tracker or fixed tilt ? – real case scenario based in Limpopo
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
4. Tracker or fixed tilt – In this case tracker givesbest ROI due to TOU tariff
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
ROI differenceFixed tilt - 14%
East West - 16%tracker
5. Major loss factors: Temp and soiling factor
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
6. Other factors
• Client load profile
• Shading and multiple roofs
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTS FORSOLAR QUALIFICATION
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Residential / Embassy
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Residential / Embassy
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Solar PV layout
– 24kWp
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Utility: Citypower
• Tariff: Block.
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• The effect of unbalanced phases
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• The effect of unbalanced phases
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• The effect of unbalanced phases
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• The effect of unbalanced phases
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Generator minimum load setting - 16kW –Solar PV throttled
• The effect of unbalanced phases
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Losses due to throttling of inverter caused mostly by imbalanced loads
• Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff
(NO PV SYSTEM)
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff
(NO EXPORT AS CURRENT SITUATION)
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff
(EXPORTING ALLOWED)
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Billing – City of Joburg – changing to a TOU tariff
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Billing – City of Joburg – TOU tariff
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
24.8 kWp
188 496 kWh
46 270 kWh
45 869 kWh
401 kWh
142 626 kWh
204 958 R
51 470 R
172 R
% Energy PV generation used vs consumption 24% %
1% %
1 849.6 kWh/kWp
112.21 c/kWh
% Energy PV generation not used on site (lost or exported)
kWh/kWp - based on energy PV generation used
Energy savings tariff - based on PV generation used
Energy consumption (Nett used from grid)
Total energy cost - without PV - year 1
Total energy savings - year 1
Total energy savings - PV generation exported - fixed tariff
Energy consumption (before PV system)
Energy PV generation
Energy PV generation used
Energy PV generation exported
Annual results of year 1 - 24.8 kW plant
PV system size installed
16.2 kWh/kWp
42.79 c/kWhEnergy exported tariff
Annual exported or unused PV energy
Energy PV generation exported
Average cost of electricity / annum (R/kWh) 1.09R
Total cost per annum after savings 153 316.82R
Average monthly bill (only energy cost) 12 776.40R
R 73 055.87 saving – changing to TOU tariffR 51 641.60 saving from PV system
• Business case of scenarios
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL / SMALL COMMERCIAL
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Nic van der WesthuizenProject ManagerTritec EnergySouth Africa
T : +27 82 8833 683E : [email protected]
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• What is LCOE?
– The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), also known as Levelized Energy Cost (LEC), is the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy for the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.
– If comparing LCOE to various sources it is important that you use the same assumptions throughout the calculations. LCOE Assumptions in model Value
Inflation for Opex (incl fuel cost) 5.50%
Discount rate 8.0%
Lifetime of all projects (years)- with refurbisment O&M throughout 20
Eskom annual price escalation 8.0%
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Average historic Eskom increases
Eskom’s average tariff increase - Last 12 years was 13.24% for Agriculuture (Ruraflex)- Last 28 years was 10.2%
http://www.eskom.co.za/CustomerCare/TariffsAndCharges/Pages/Tariff_History.aspx
• Customer load profile
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Customer load profile
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Maximum Demand Allowable through MV line = 1MVA
• Customer load profile
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Customer load profile
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Customer load profile – with expected alterations
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Considered energy sources
– Eskom (Ruraflex) – current system
– Eskom (Megaflex) – with additional MV line investment
– Eskom (Ruraflex) + Solar PV
– Diesel generators
– Gas generation – pipeline
– Gas generation – CNG
– Diesel generators + Solar PV
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Considered energy sources
– Gas pipeline – Gas generators
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Considered energy sources
– Compressed natural gas – Gas generators
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• LCOE values
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
• Please note: LCOE prices are based on full equity investment by owner and does not consider cost of capital and also cannot be compared to the PPA price if another party will invest and resell energy to the end user.
• Excess demand to be supplied by secondary source of electricity is the purple columns shown below
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Sizings evaluated Generator
running/annum
– Solution 1: 1347kWp and 4000kWh (70%DOD) 3%
– Solution 2: 1113kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD) 10%
– Solution 3: 758.8kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD)20%
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Entire Eskom bill to be handed over to energy plant owner with new energy tariff to be negotiated. The next slides will evaluate these sized options and will identify a best possible PPA energy tariff pricing based on expected ROI of investors in the market place which is around 15% project ROI (100% equity financed)
Solution 1: 1347kWp and 4000kWh (70%DOD)
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Solution 2: 1113kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD)
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Solution 3: 758.8kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD)
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Solution 4: New Eskom MV line + PV PPA
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
CAPEXSolar PV 1000kWp R 02MVA Eskom line R 9 000 000.00Total R 18 820 000.00
OPEXPV PPA (@80c/kWh – no escalation) R 1 308 988.56Eskom R 6 755 351.37Total R 8 064 339.93
Solution 5: New Eskom MV line + PV self built
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
CAPEXSolar PV 1000kWp R 02MVA Eskom line R 9 000 000.00Total R 18 820 000.00
OPEXPV PPA (@80c/kWh – no escalation) R 1 308 988.56Eskom R 6 755 351.37Total R 8 064 339.93
CAPEXSolar PV 1000kWp R 9 820 000.002MVA Eskom line R 9 000 000.00Total R 18 820 000.00
OPEXSolar PV R 230 000.00Eskom R 6 755 351.37Total R 6 985 351.37
Inverters (every 10-13 year replacement)
Installing a new Eskom line with the new equipment to be powered by interim solutionsSolar PV system to be purchased by clientCurrent CAPEX cost does not include installation of transformer and no extra insurance cost is applied at this stage
LCOE comparison of real probable solutions
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
NR DESCRIPTION 10 years 15 years 20years 25 years CAPEX OPEX
Constructio
n
time
kWh/Annum
1 Eskom Ruraflex ( R0.97/kWh) - BASE CASE R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0 R 6 808 119 0 7 008 000
2 Eskom Megaflex (R0.88/kWh) R 1.01 R 0.97 R 0.95 R 0.94 R 9 000 000 R 6 192 978 12 7 008 000
3 Solar PV (18% Partial load) R 1.11 R 0.78 R 0.62 R 0.54 R 12 120 000 R 180 000 6 7 008 000
4 Eskom Ruraflex + Solar PV R 0.98 R 0.92 R 0.89 R 0.88 R 12 120 000 R 5 569 085 6 7 008 000
5 Diesel generators R 3.10 R 2.91 R 2.75 R 2.60 R 4 141 947 R 23 603 470 3 7 008 000
6 Gas generators - pipeline R 2.02 R 1.69 R 1.49 R 1.36 R 55 836 763 R 9 487 754 24 7 008 000
7 Gas generators - CNG R 1.90 R 1.76 R 1.64 R 1.54 R 11 336 763 R 13 530 831 8 7 008 000
8 Diesel generators + Solar PV R 2.77 R 2.55 R 2.38 R 2.24 R 15 841 947 R 19 682 335 6 7 008 000
9 Solution 1 - PPA full @ R1.6/kWh R 1.60 R 1.60 R 1.60 R 1.60 R 0 R 14 707 555 6 9 192 222
10 Solution 2 - Ruraflex@1MVA - with own generators and PV system R 1.61 R 1.43 R 1.34 R 1.32 R 34 429 232 R 10 286 387 6 9 192 222
11 Solution 3 - 2MVA line Megaflex with interim generators + PV + Batt * R 1.09 R 1.01 R 0.97 R 0.95 R 17 320 099 R 6 667 258 4 9 192 222
12 Solution 5 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system owned R 0.98 R 0.90 R 0.87 R 0.85 R 19 000 000 R 6 985 351 12 9 192 222
13 Solution 4 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system PPA R 0.95 R 0.90 R 0.87 R 0.85 R 9 000 000 R 8 064 340 12 9 192 222
* 7945177 year 1 = 1 080 033 Reevers + 6 865 145 Current (9 192 222 year 2)
Simplistic LCOE model comparison costs
Grey areas is based on 1MVA supply - 800kW per every hour
NR DESCRIPTION 10 years 15 years 20years 25 years CAPEX OPEX
Constructio
n
time
kWh/Annum
3 Solar PV (18% Partial load) R 1.11 R 0.78 R 0.62 R 0.54 R 12 120 000 R 180 000 6 7 008 000
13 Solution 4 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system PPA R 0.95 R 0.90 R 0.87 R 0.85 R 9 000 000 R 8 064 340 12 9 192 222
12 Solution 5 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system owned R 0.98 R 0.90 R 0.87 R 0.85 R 19 000 000 R 6 985 351 12 9 192 222
4 Eskom Ruraflex + Solar PV R 0.98 R 0.92 R 0.89 R 0.88 R 12 120 000 R 5 569 085 6 7 008 000
2 Eskom Megaflex (R0.88/kWh) R 1.01 R 0.97 R 0.95 R 0.94 R 9 000 000 R 6 192 978 12 7 008 000
1 Eskom Ruraflex ( R0.97/kWh) - BASE CASE R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0.97 R 0 R 6 808 119 0 7 008 000
11 Solution 3 - 2MVA line Megaflex with interim generators + PV + Batt * R 1.09 R 1.01 R 0.97 R 0.95 R 17 320 099 R 6 667 258 4 9 192 222
10 Solution 2 - Ruraflex@1MVA - with own generators and PV system R 1.61 R 1.43 R 1.34 R 1.32 R 34 429 232 R 10 286 387 6 9 192 222
9 Solution 1 - PPA full @ R1.6/kWh R 1.60 R 1.60 R 1.60 R 1.60 R 0 R 14 707 555 6 9 192 222
6 Gas generators - pipeline R 2.02 R 1.69 R 1.49 R 1.36 R 55 836 763 R 9 487 754 24 7 008 000
7 Gas generators - CNG R 1.90 R 1.76 R 1.64 R 1.54 R 11 336 763 R 13 530 831 8 7 008 000
8 Diesel generators + Solar PV R 2.77 R 2.55 R 2.38 R 2.24 R 15 841 947 R 19 682 335 6 7 008 000
5 Diesel generators R 3.10 R 2.91 R 2.75 R 2.60 R 4 141 947 R 23 603 470 3 7 008 000
* 7945177 year 1 = 1 080 033 Reevers + 6 865 145 Current (9 192 222 year 2)
Simplistic LCOE model comparison costs
Grey areas is based on 1MVA supply - 800kW per every hour
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa
Solution 4 and 5 is most promising and best value for money
LCOE comparison of real probable solutions
BUYING FROM A POWERHOUSE
• Supply electrical and thermal energy for property. – Electricity– Domestic hot water– Cooled water (HVAC)
• Marketing opportunity for going off grid– More and more pressure for carbon reduction by
listed property owners• Yield enhancing - Delta cost savings on initial CAPEX
– Roof infrastructure, – Backup generators provided for by powerhouse no
need for tenants to purchase– No chillers or HVAC– No electrical geysers required
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential
Nic van der Westhuizen | Tritec South Africa