Dwight AakreFarm Management Specialist

January 2011

RotationPrice and market outlookMarketing issuesMachinery needsProfitabilityRiskReturn over variable costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Index1990 - 92 = 100

Seed unchanged to up 30%Fertilizer up 40-75%Chemicals flat (on average)Fuel up 20%Repairs up 5%Crop insurance up 25-75%Rent up

2011 2010

Diesel 3.00/gal 2.50/gal

Gas 3.00/gal 2.70/gal

2011 2010

Nitrogen 0.48/lb 0.34/lb

Phosphorus 0.56/lb 0.32/lb

Potassium 0.46/lb 0.46/lb

2011 est. 2010

Corn 4.00 3.90

Soybeans 9.90 9.15

HRS Wheat 6.70 4.90

Canola 0.198 0.165

Oil Sunflower 0.2035 0.165

Barley 3.70 3.00

2009 2010

Corn 4.04 3.99

Soybeans 8.80 9.23

HRS Wheat 6.20 5.43

Canola 0.16 0.172

Oil Sunflower 0.177 0.209

Barley 2.65 3.22

Limit Factor

Large seeded food grade 1.5

Small seeded food grade 1.3

Low linolenic acid 1.15

Low saturated fat 1.15

High protein 1.15

Limit Factor

Malting 1.85

Waxy hulled 1.95

Waxy hulless 2.30

Hulless 1.20

Crop APH Coverage LevelYield

Protection/APH Price

Guarantee

2011 Barley 55 70% $4.50 $173.25

2010 Barley 55 70% $3.00 $105.00

2011 Wheat 34 70% $8.00 $190.40

2010 Wheat 34 70% $4.90 $109.76

2011 Soybeans 26 70% $12.00 $218.40

2010 Soybeans 26 70% $9.15 $166.53

2011 Oil Sunflower 1300 70% $0.20 $182.00

2010 Oil Sunflower 1300 70% $0.165 $150.15

Corn Grain 279.31

Drybeans 218.28

Conf Sunflowers 195.10

Canola 194.50

Winter Wheat 189.29

Spring Wheat 171.96

Oil Sunflowers 171.47

Durum 168.24

Soybeans 150.21

Malting Barley 149.34

Oats 128.31

Field Peas 128.30

Yellow Mustard 120.58

Flax 115.98

Buckwheat 113.80

Millet 79.34

Corn Grain 220.30Conf Sunflowers 189.16Canola 174.71Drybeans 171.47Winter Wheat 169.51Oil Sunflowers 164.70Spring Wheat 146.74Durum 146.10Malting Barley 132.47Lentils 125.92Soybeans 123.41Rye 120.15Yellow Mustard 116.68Oats 111.99Buckwheat 107.76Flax 107.17Millet 67.58

Spring Wheat 7.13Durum 7.42Barley 4.75Corn 4.28Soybeans 11.45Drybeans 0.245Oil Sunflowers 0.197Conf Sunflowers 0.288Canola 0.22Flax 12.16Field Peas 6.30Oats 2.80Yellow Mustard 0.235Buckwheat 0.236Millet 0.075Winter Wheat 6.22Lentils 0.23Rye 4.09

Corn Grain 415.16Canola 354.20Conf Sunflowers 351.36Drybeans 345.45Winter Wheat 317.22Spring Wheat 306.59Durum 304.22Soybeans 297.70Malting Barley 294.50Oil Sunflowers 275.80Flax 267.52Field Peas 226.80Buckwheat 224.20Yellow Mustard 223.25Oats 193.20Millet 120.00

Conf Sunflowers 387.71Corn Grain 359.16Canola 324.00Drybeans 311.15Soybeans 295.10Winter Wheat 292.80Lentils 292.10Malting Barley 283.79Oil Sunflowers 283.71Spring Wheat 260.48Durum 257.25Flax 237.80Yellow Mustard 222.30Buckwheat 221.35Field Peas 207.90Rye 171.78Oats 167.40Millet 97.50

Canola 157.70Conf Sunflowers 156.26Flax 151.70Soybeans 147.49Malting Barley 145.16Durum 135.98Corn Grain 135.85Spring Wheat 134.63Winter Wheat 130.93Drybeans 127.17Buckwheat 111.34Oil Sunflowers 104.33Yellow Mustard 102.67Field Peas 98.50Oats 64.89Millet 40.66

Conf Sunflowers 198.55Soybeans 171.69Lentils 166.18Malting Barley 151.32Canola 149.29Drybeans 139.68Corn Grain 138.86Flax 130.09Winter Wheat 123.29Oil Sunflowers 119.01Spring Wheat 113.74Buckwheat 113.59Durum 111.15Yellow Mustard 105.05Field Peas 91.22Oats 55.41Rye 51.63Millet 29.92

Canola 83.04

Soybeans 79.27

Conf Sunflowers 76.00

Flax 72.24

Malting Barley 63.44

Durum 58.71

Spring Wheat 57.20

Winter Wheat 56.53

Corn 42.00

Drybeans 41.42

Buckwheat 30.19

Yellow Mustard 25.23

Oil Sunflowers 23.60

Field Peas 17.57

Oats (17.41)

Millet (38.16)

Conf Sunflowers 122.66Soybeans 101.03Lentils 91.04Canola 75.08Malting Barley 73.41Drybeans 59.92Flax 57.49Corn 52.66Winter Wheat 51.57Oil Sunflowers 42.92Spring Wheat 40.33Buckwheat 39.44Durum 37.86Yellow Mustard 29.81Field Peas 16.79Rye (19.86)Oats (22.57)Millet (45.90)

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

GrandForks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

NW NC NE NV

SWEC

SC

SV

SE

NDSU Crop Budget RegionsNDSU Crop Budget Regions

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

GrandForks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

NW NC NE NV

SWEC

SC

SV

SE

Cass

Dunn

Ward

Grant

McLean

McKenzie

MortonStark

Stutsman

Williams

Wells

Barnes

Slope

Kidder

Walsh

McHenry

Sioux

Mountrail

Divide

Burleigh

Benson

Burke Cavalier

Emmons

Bottineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

GrandForks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

ttineau

PierceRamsey

RichlandLogan

Dickey

TraillMercer

Billings

Nelson

Adams

TownerRolette

Bowman

Pembina

Eddy

Hettinger La Moure

Steele

Oliver

GrandForks

Sargent

Sheridan

Ransom

GriggsFoster

Renville

McIntosh

GoldenValley

NW NC NE NV

SWEC

SC

SV

SE

NDSU Crop Budget RegionsNDSU Crop Budget Regions

Crop Compare (an Excel spreadsheet) available to download at:

http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement

The objective of “crop compare” is to calculate the cash price needed for other crops to yield the same return over variable costs as the base crop

All yieldsAll variable costsFutures price and basis for base crop

Fixed costs are not includedMachinery ownershipOwner/operator labor

Differences in management and risk are not included

MachineryStorageLaborManagementRisk