dynamic climate change adaptation for potato productiondynamic climate change adaptation for potato...
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Dynamic Climate Change
Adaptation for Potato ProductionStephanie Arnold, University of Prince Edward Island
2019 Island Agrology Workshop: Building Resiliency in Maritime Agriculture
19 August 2019
Pests, diseases
Water management
Market instability
Operating costs
Uncooperative weather
Pressures
1967 Source: Parent et al, 1967
21 °C
1967
Source: Parent et al, 1967
“Most Likely”
Temperature
Change by
2050s (°C)Source: Fenech, 2018
“Most Likely”
Temperature
Changes
Source: Arnold and Fenech, 2017
8
16
22
35
0
10
20
30
40
Observed
1990s
Projected
2020s
Projected
2050s
Projected
2080s
Number of Days > 27.5°CCharlottetown, PEI
“Most Likely”
Precipitation
Change by
2050s (%)
Source: Fenech, 2018
“Most Likely”
Precipitation
Changes0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1978-2013 2010-2060 2050-2100
Intensity of 1 hour Rain Event (mm/h)
Summerside, PEI
(Observed) (Projected) (Projected)
1:100
1:50
1:25
1:20
1:10
1:5
1:2
Data source: https://www.idf-cc-uwo.ca/
But…
Average age = 17.8
But…
Source: Jardine, 2019
But…
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw
Opportunity or Challenge?
{ {Opportunities
Increased yield
potential
New varieties, crops
Double harvest
Challenges
Heat stress
Dry matter distribution
Pests, weeds, insects
TemperatureSource: Wikimedia Commons
{ {Opportunities
Increased
variation
More frequent
extreme events
Challenges
Drought
Excessive soil moisture
Leaching, erosion
Bacterial infection
Seed contamination
Precipitation
{ {Uncertainties
Types of impacts
Location of impacts
Timing of impacts
Extent of impacts
Concerns
Over adapt
Under adapt
Failure to adapt
Maladapt
Dealing with Uncertainty
Pressure points
Threshold levels
Action options and sequences
Dealing with Uncertainty
Data Collection
Total Precipitation - August 2017
(24 stations)
140 mm
80 mm
20 mm
Total Precipitation - August 2017
(32 stations)
140 mm
80 mm
20 mm
Data CollectionSource: Jardine, 2019
Sources: https://www.sensefly.com/drone/ebee-x-fixed-wing-drone/;
https://www.edaphic.com.au/products/soils/tdr-soil-moisture-sensor/
Planting Date
Planting Tuber Initiation
Source: Adavi, 2018
BreedingSource: https://twitter.com/PEIPotatoes/status/875718410042212352; modified
Breeding
Peru
Uganda
India
Ithaca, NY
Water management
Nutrient management
Soil organic matter
Cover crop
Crop rotation
Hedgerows
Etc.
Management Practices
World leader in
understanding and
adapting to the climate
change impacts on
economies and ecologies.
Applying leading
technologies such as
drones, big data analytics
and virtual reality to the
climate change challenge.
Canadian Centre for
Climate Change and Adaptation
BSc in Climate Change and Adaptation
Master in Climate Change programme
Research Centres of Excellence in Climate
Change Adaptation
> Climate Coastal Science
> Food Production and Sustainability
> Human and Animal Health
UPEI Climate Research Lab
Professional training and development
(ClimateSense)
Adavi, Z., Moradi, R., Saeidnejad, A. H., Tadayon, M. R., & Mansouri, H. (2018). Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies. Scientia Hortculturae, 228, 91-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.10.017
Arnold, S. & Fenech, A. (2017). Prince Edward Island Climate Change Adaptation Recommendations Report. Submitted to the Government of Prince Edward Island.
Fenech, A. (2018, February 28). Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation at Atlantic Canada Parks [Presentation]. Presented to Parks Canada.
Jardine, D. (2019, July 31). The most useful climate change indicators for agriculture and watershed groups on Prince Edward Island [Presentation]. Presented to Trout River Environmental Committee.
Kleinwechter, U., Gastelo, M., Ritchie, J., Nelson, G. & Asseng, S. (2016). Simulating cultivar variations I potato yields for contrasting environments. Agricultural Systems, 145, 51-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.011
Parent, R.C., Black, W.N. and Callbeck, L.C. (1967). Potato Growing in the Atlantic Provinces. Canada Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2015/aac-aafc/A53-1281-1967-eng.pdf
References
