dynamic model to integrate capital planning with energy ... annual...james fisk, savin engineers,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dynamic Model to Integrate Capital Planning with Energy Conservation Measures to Meet GHG Goals Frederick Kincheloe, PE, LEED AP, Savin Engineers, P.C.James Fisk, Savin Engineers, P.C.
Keith O’Hara, PE, CEM, New York Power AuthorityMatthew Carroll, PE, New York Power Authority
New York Water Environment Association88th Annual MeetingFebruary 6, 2019
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Thank You!NYPAMatthew Carroll, P.E.Keith O’Hara, P.E.Eric Park, P.E.
Savin Engineers, P.C.Christian Bratina, P.E.James FiskFrederick Kincheloe, P.E., LEED APSteve Martino, P.E., LEED AP, CEMTimothy Shadi, P.E.
CDM SmithChris Korzenko, P.E.Eric Staunton, Ph.D., E.I.Megan Messmann, P.E.Vincent Apa, P.E.
ArcadisEric Auerback, P.E.Mary JohnDimitri Katehis, Ph.D.Sally KramerMatthew Yonkin, P.E., BCEE, CEM, ENV SPSilvia Marpicati, P.E., BCEE, CEMCatherine MoskosShayla AllenJames Pynn
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Integrated SOGR/ECM Plan for 14 WRRFs – Project Summary Integrate SOGR projects with ECMs to
• Leverage capital plan, optimize operating costs, and reduce GHGs• Prioritize energy projects around SOGR needs• Target programmatic short and long term goals
Costs, GHGs, Resource Recovery, Energy Neutrality
Integration Workshops
Sensitivity Analysis
Integration Plan
Establish Baseline PlanPrepare ECM Reports
Approach Key Project ChallengeManaging a Dynamic Program• Capital Plan Updates Associated with
Risk and Prioritization• Evolving Goals and Policies• GHG Coefficient Projections• Operational Changes/Interim Outages
A tool was needed to keep up
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Overview of ECM Integration Process
Already Included
Cost Effective
Do Not Compete
Integrate
246 ECMs (2012 AECOM ECM Reports)
212 New ECMs(2017 Savin/CDM Smith/Arcadis ECM Reports)
Integrated Plan175 ECMs Considered
458 ECMsIdentified
307 ECMsEvaluated
ECMs to be selectedbased on Client goals and available funding
Capital Plan, Priority, and
Funding Changes
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Key GoalsSimple to use• EXCEL based spreadsheet toolModular • Allow baseline data and coefficient updates• Allow the addition/removal of Capital/Energy projectsThorough• Coordinate projects to ensure no double counting
Model Development
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Baseline Metrics Reportfinal draft August 2016
Ener
gy U
se a
nd P
rodu
ctio
n
Ope
ratin
g Co
sts
GHG
s
Plant specific usage, unit costs, and GHG
coefficients were established for
developing ECMs
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Where do we start?
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7Where do we start? – Excel Set Up
FY Start FY 14' Baseline YearlyMonthly
7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/2010
2014Baseline
Electricity (kWH) 34,574,691 2,881,224 2,881,224 2,881,224Fuel Oil (gal) 449,793 37,483 37,483 37,483Natural Gas (ft3) 71,765,860 5,980,488 5,980,488 5,980,488ADG Produced (ft3) 207,419,883 17,284,990 17,284,990 17,284,990ADG Used (ft3) 207,419,883 17,284,990 17,284,990 17,284,990ADG Flared (ft3) 0 0 0 0ADG Vented (ft3) - 0 0 0Sodium Hypochlorite (gal) 759,262 63,272 63,272 63,272Dewatering Polymer (gal) 83,372 6,948 6,948 6,948Thickening Polymer (gal) - 0 0 0Ferric Chloride (gal) 92,700 7,725 7,725 7,725Caustic Soda (gal) 626 52 52 52Methanol (gal) 0 0 0 0Glycerol (gal) 0 0 0 0Residuals (cuft) 182,250 15,188 15,188 15,188Sludge (tons) 8,125 677 677 677Maintenance/ Personnel ($) 0 0 0 0
GHGs (MT) 21,657 1,805 1,805 1,805
Unit Costs - 2014Electricity ($/kWH) $0.11Fuel Oil ($/gal) $3.29Natural Gas ($/mmBTU) $8.44Sodium Hypochlorite ($/gal) $0.74Dewatering Polymer ($/gal) $7.85Thickening Polymer ($/gal) $8.21Ferric Chloride ($/gal) $0.56Caustic Soda ($/gal) $2.01Methanol ($/gal) $1.70Glycerol ($/gal) $1.81Residuals ($/cuft) $1.97Sludge ($/tons) $418.80
GHG Coefficients
Electricity (MT CO2e / kWH) 0.000261
Fuel Oil (MT CO2e / gal) 0.0102
Natural Gas (MT CO2e / mmBTU) 0.0477
ADG Used (MT CO2e / cuft) 0.000158
ADG Flared (MT CO2e / cuft) 0.000158
ADG Vented (MT CO2e / cuft) 0.256
Annual Baseline Established
Capability for monthly baseline to capture change and determine lifecycle costs (not used)
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Individual WRRF Reports• 2012 AECOM ECM Reports• 2017 Savin CIP Impacts Report
(referencing SOP reports where available)
• 2016/2017 Savin/CDM/Arcadis ECM Reports
How do we calculate change in metrics?
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9How do we calculate change in metrics? – Excel Set Up
Capital Cost information included to track costs
If the capital project includes scope beyond “replace in kind” then the impacts on metrics are adjusted
Schedule incorporated to track costs and change in metrics over time
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10How do we calculate change in metrics? – Excel Set Up
Each change is programmed into a master Excel calculations page
Programming must account for double counting!
Each change is
added in a step wise fashion and the
results are rolled up.
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11Scenario Analysis
A switchboard is established to easily
add or delete projects
Contracting mechanisms can also
be considered
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12Scenario Analysis
Results summary
allows user to make changes
and analyze results to
select optimum ECM
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GHG Goals“OneNYC” GHG Goals• 35% of 2006 levels by 2025• 40% of 2006 levels by 2030• 80% of 2006 levels by 2050
0100200300400500
FY'14 CIP CIP with ECMs
464.8306.3
128.3CO2e
x 1
,000
MT
GHGS
2030 Goal=318.62025 Goal=345.2
2050 Goal=106.2
Distribution of CIP with ECMs GHGs by Source
Scenario Analysis – SAMPLE Scenario to Target GHGs
NOTE: This scenario is for presentation purposes and does not reflect an approved plan
Results can inform where Owners should direct future work to reduce GHGs
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Energy Use and Recovery
Sour
ce E
nerg
y(M
MBT
U/y
r*10
12)
Gapof6.4T
Gapof5.5T
Gapof1.9T
Energy Neutrality Goals
FY14 CIP CIP w/ECMs
Scenario Analysis – SAMPLE Scenario to Target Energy Neutrality
NOTE: This scenario is for presentation purposes and does not reflect an approved plan
Results Identify Energy Neutrality Gap and help inform where energy savings and production can be targeted
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Owners can use results to make programmatic decisions
Plant Specific ReportingModel Reporting
NOTE: This scenario is for presentation purposes and does not reflect an approved plan
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0
100
200
FY'14 CIP CIP with ECMs
148 13785
Mill
ion
Dolla
rs P
er Y
ear Operation Costs
Integration SummaryEnergy Use and Recovery
01,0002,0003,0004,000
CIP CIP with ECMs
2.3B3.3B
Mill
ion
Dolla
rs
Capital Costs
0100200300400500
FY'14 CIP CIP with ECMs
464.8306.3
128.3CO2e
x 1
,000
MT
GHGS
2030 Goal=318.62025 Goal=345.2
2050 Goal=106.2
Sour
ce E
nerg
y(M
MBT
U/y
r*10
12)
Gapof6.4T
Gapof5.5T
Gapof1.9T
FY14 CIP CIP w/ECMs
Owners can use results to make programmatic
decisions.
NOTE: This scenario is for presentation purposes and does
not reflect an approved plan
Model Reporting
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Summary
• A simple spreadsheet can be developed to assist in determining cost effective ways of implementing energy and GHG related projects
• Modular spreadsheet design allows for adjustments with needs and goals
• The spreadsheet tool can be made as detailed as necessary to meet your needs
• Reporting can be tailored to the necessary level fit for the user and decision maker
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Thank You!
New York Water Environment Association88th Annual Meeting
February 6, 2019
Slide Number 1Thank You!Integrated SOGR/ECM Plan for 14 WRRFs – Project SummaryOverview of ECM Integration ProcessSlide Number 5Baseline Metrics Report�final draft August 2016Slide Number 7Individual WRRF ReportsSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12GHG GoalsEnergy Neutrality GoalsPlant Specific ReportingIntegration SummarySummaryThank You!