dynamics and predictability of large-scale, high-impact ... · dynamics and predictability of...

Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

In recent years, a significant number of high-impact weather andextreme climate events have inflicted catastrophic propertydamage, and loss of human life, around the world, and hinderedsocio-economic development. Improving simulation and predic-tion of these events is an increasingly important requirement ofpublic meteorological services.Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical

Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume covers a rangeof important research issues related to extreme events. Dynamicallinkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and oceanphenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multi-decadal, NorthAtlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations, Annular Modes, tropicalcyclones, and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the pre-dictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events onmultiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advancesin the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical andphysical processes associated with these events, to help managersand policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk andprevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on futureresearch directions for experts and young scientists.Written by leading researchers in weather and climate

extremes, this comprehensive volume is ideal for professionalsand policy makers working in disaster prevention and mitigation,and is a key resource for graduate students and academicresearchers in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science,and weather forecasting.

Jianping Li is Dean and Professor at the College of GlobalChange and Earth System Sciences (GCESS), Beijing NormalUniversity, and Director of the Joint Center for Global ChangeStudies (JCGCS). He is also an affiliated faculty member of theUniversity of Hawaii, a Fellow of the International Union of

Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), and a Fellow of the RoyalMeteorological Society. His major research interests include cli-mate dynamics and climate change, predictability, monsoons, andannular modes. He is Vice-Chair of the IUGG Commission onClimatic and Environmental Change (CCEC), and ExecutiveSecretary of the International Commission of Climate (ICCL)within IAMAS (International Association of Meteorology andAtmospheric Sciences).

Richard Swinbank is a Scientific Manager in Weather Sci-ence at the Met Office in the UK and a Fellow of the RoyalMeteorological Society. He is past President of the IAMASInternational Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM)and Co-Chair of the World Weather Research Programme(WWRP) working group on Predictability, Dynamics, andEnsemble Forecasting (PDEF). His research interests includeensemble forecasting, data assimilation, atmospheric dynamics,and predictability of high-impact weather.

Richard Grotjahn is (upper level) Professor of ClimateDynamics at the University of California, Davis, California,USA. He is currently President of the ICDM commission ofIAMAS, and is Co-Chair of the US CLIVAR working group onLarge Scale Circulation Patterns Associated with Extremes. Hisresearch interests include extreme weather, climate model assess-ment, and large-scale atmospheric synoptic-dynamics.

Hans Volkert is Senior Scientist at the Deutsches Zentrum fürLuft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre(IPA), Germany, and a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Soci-ety. He served as Secretary-General of IAMAS from 2007 to2015 and as IUGG liaison officer to the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO) from 2011 to 2015, with a focus on atmos-pheric issues. His main research interests are in mesoscalemeteorology, weather forecasting, and the development ofmeteorology as a branch of physics.

www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press

Cambridge University Press978-1-107-07142-1 - Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale High-Impact Weather and Climate EventsEdited by Jianping Li, Richard Swinbank, Richard Grotjahn and Hans VolkertFrontmatterMore information

http://www.cambridge.org/9781107071421

http://www.cambridge.org


Special publications of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Series

The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) promotes and co-ordinates international scientific studies of Earth(physical, chemical, and mathematical) and its environment in space, aiming to apply this knowledge to societal needs such as mineralresources, mitigation of natural hazards, and environmental preservation. The series is co-published by the IUGG and CambridgeUniversity Press, providing researchers and graduate students with authoritative insights into major scientific developments and state-of-the-art research.

series editors

Christophe Cudennec, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, FranceHermann Drewes, Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Munich, GermanyAlik Ismail-Zadeh, (Editor-in-chief), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, GermanyAndrew Mackintosh, Victoria University of Wellington, New ZealandMioara Mandea, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiale, Paris, FranceJoan Martí, Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra “Jaume Almera”, Barcelona, SpainJohan Rodhe, University of Gothenburg, SwedenPeter Suhadolc, University of Trieste, ItalyHans Volkert, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

advisory board

Ian Allison, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, Hobart, AustraliaIsabelle Ansorge, University of Cape Town, South AfricaTom Beer, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, AustraliaClaudio Brunini, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, ArgentinaJeff Freymueller, University of Alaska, FairbanksHarsh Gupta, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, IndiaDavid Jackson, University of California, Los AngelesSetsuya Nakada, University of Tokyo, JapanGuoxiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaGordon Young, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada

titles in print in this series

A. Ismail-Zadeh, J. Urrutia Fucugauchi, A. Kijko, K. Takeuchi, and I. Zaliapin, Extreme Natural Hazards, Disaster Risks and SocietalImplications.J. Li, R. Swinbank, R. Grotjahn, and H. Volkert, Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events.






Dynamics andPredictabilityof Large-ScaleHigh-ImpactWeather andClimate Events

edited by

JIANPING LIBeijing Normal University

RICHARD SWINBANKMet Office

RICHARD GROTJAHNUniversity of California, Davis

HANS VOLKERTDeutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt






University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom

Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit ofeducation, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107071421

© Cambridge University Press 2016

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exceptionand to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,no reproduction of any part may take place without the writtenpermission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2016

Printed in the United Kingdom by TJ International Ltd. Padstow Cornwall

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication dataDynamics and predictability of large-scale high-impact weather and climate events / edited by Jianping Li, Beijing Normal University, RichardSwinbank, Met Office, Richard Grotjahn, University of California, Davis, Hans Volkert, Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt eV (DLR).

pages cmIncludes index.ISBN 978-1-107-07142-1 (Hardback)1. Severe storms–Forecasting. 2. Weather forecasting. I. Li, Jianping (Meteorology professor), editor. II. Swinbank, Richard,editor. III. Grotjahn, Richard, editor. IV. Volkert, Hans, editor.QC941.D96 2015551.55–dc23 2015023762

ISBN 978-1-107-07142-1 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracyof URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,accurate or appropriate.






Contents

Preface page viiAcknowledgments xList of contributors xii

Part I. Diagnostics and prediction of high-impactweather

1. Global prediction of high-impact weather:diagnosis and performance 3Mark Rodwell and Alan Thorpe

2. Severe weather diagnosis from the perspectiveof generalized slantwise vorticity development 16Guoxiong Wu, Yongjun Zheng, and Yimin Liu

3. Probabilistic extreme event attribution 37Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner, and Dáithí Stone

4. Observed and projected changes in temperatureand precipitation extremes 47Xuebin Zhang and Francis Zwiers

Part II. High-impact weather in mid latitudes

5. Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interactionwith low-frequency climate variability,and links to extreme weather events 69Olivia Martius and Gwendal Rivière

6. The influence of jet stream regime on extremeweather events 79Nili Harnik, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and Orli Lachmy

7. Forecasting high-impact weather usingensemble prediction systems 95Richard Swinbank, Petra Friederichs,and Sabrina Wahl

8. Storm tracks, blocking, and climate change:a review 113Tim Woollings

9. The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations:climate variability, extremes, and stratosphere–troposphere interaction 122Adam A. Scaife

Part III. Tropical cyclones

10. Opportunities and challenges in dynamical andpredictability studies of tropical cyclone events 133Russell L. Elsberry and Hsiao-Chung Tsai

11. Predictability of severe weather and tropicalcyclones at the mesoscales 141Fuqing Zhang, Christopher Melhauser,Dandan Tao, Y. Qiang Sun, Erin B. Munsell,Yonghui Weng, and Jason A. Sippel

12. Dynamics, predictability, and high-impactweather associated with the extratropicaltransition of tropical cyclones 153Patrick A. Harr and Heather M. Archambault

13. Secondary eyewall formation in tropicalcyclones 168Chun-Chieh Wu, Yi-Hsuan Huang, andZhemin Tan

14. Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropicalcyclones 176Tom Beer and Oscar Alves

Part IV. Heat waves and cold-air outbreaks

15. European heat waves: the effect of soilmoisture, vegetation, and land use 185Fabio D’Andrea, Philippe Drobinski,and Marc Stéfanon

16. Western North American extreme heat,associated large-scale synoptic-dynamics,and performance by a climate model 198Richard Grotjahn

17. Decadal to interdecadal variations of northernChina heat wave frequency: impact of theTibetan Plateau snow cover 210Zhiwei Wu and Jianping Li

18. Global warming targets and heat wave risk 220Robin Clark

19. Cold-air outbreaks over East Asiaassociated with blocking highs: mechanismsand their interaction with the polarstratosphere 225Hisashi Nakamura, Kazuaki Nishii, Lin Wang,Yvan J. Orsolini, and Koutarou Takaya

Part V. Ocean connections

20. Response of the Atlantic Ocean Circulationto North Atlantic freshwater perturbations 239Henk A. Dijkstra






21. Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillationin twentieth century drought and wetperiods over the US Great Plains andthe Sahel 255Sumant Nigam and Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas

22. Floods and droughts along the GuineaCoast in connection with the South AtlanticDipole 271Hyacinth C. Nnamchi and Jianping Li

23. The effect of global dynamical factors onthe interannual variability of land-basedrainfall 280Peter G. Baines and Benjamin J. Henley

24. MJO and extreme weather/climate events 294Chidong Zhang

Part VI. Asian monsoons

25. Extreme weather and seasonal events duringthe Indian summer monsoon and prospectsof improvement in their prediction skill underIndia’s Monsoon Mission 303D. R. Sikka

26. Interannual variability and predictability ofsummer climate over the Northwest Pacificand East Asia 333Shang-Ping Xie and Yu Kosaka

27. Impacts of annular modes on extreme climateevents over the East Asian monsoon region 343Jianping Li

Index 354Color plate section between pages 210 and 211

vi Table of contents






Preface

In recent years, a significant number of high-impactweather and climate events have inflicted catastrophicproperty damage and loss of human life, and hinderedsocio-economic development. Tropical cyclones are someof the most damaging weather systems; recent examplesinclude hurricane Katrina in the USA in 2005 and hurri-cane Sandy in the USA in 2012, while multiple typhoonsaffected China in 2012. Severe flooding occurred in Aus-tralia in 2010–11, Europe in 2002, China in 2012, andPakistan in 2010; there were droughts in China in2010–2011, the USA in 2012; heat waves swept acrossthe United States in 2012 and freezing rain in China in2008. “High-impact” events encompass not only severe orextreme weather, but also other weather and climate eventsthat have a major socio-economic impact. Thus, furtherimproving weather forecasting and climate prediction cap-abilities are not only the topics at the forefront of theatmospheric science community, but also increasinglyimportant requirements of public meteorological services.However, it is undeniable that there is a need for greaterscientific knowledge to underpin weather forecasts andclimate predictions, especially, for high-impact weatherand climate events. The main outcome of this deficiencyis a lack of knowledge of the dynamic mechanism andpredictability of high-impact weather and climate events.

In view of this, the International Commission onDynamical Meteorology (ICDM) held a workshop on thesubject of “Dynamics and predictability of high-impactweather and climate events” on 6–9 August 2012, inKunming, China. The ICDM is one of the commissionsof the International Association of Meteorology andAtmospheric Sciences (IAMAS), which is in turn a con-stituent association of the International Union of Geodesyand Geophysics (IUGG). The commission is composed ofinternational scientists who are committed to pursuing andcooperating in the science of dynamical meteorology. Inthe past, the ICDM has made very valuable contributionsto the observation, research, analysis, and simulation ofatmospheric dynamics across a range of time and spacescales, and coupling of the atmosphere to the ocean. Inturn those developments have led to improved skill inweather, climate, and environmental prediction for thebenefit of society. The ICDM sponsors symposia that areheld during the biennial IUGG General Assemblies andIAMAS Assemblies. The workshop was an additionalevent, intended to foster further understanding of the

relevant dynamical and physical mechanisms that lead toextreme weather and climate events.

This book is largely based on the invited lectures pre-sented at that workshop. It sets out our current understand-ing of the critical issues concerning dynamics andpredictability of global and regional high-impact weatherand climate events. Our aim is to summarize relevantnewest advances in this field, and to enhance the under-standing of physical processes associated with theseevents. The book covers a range of important researchissues related to extreme events, including tropical cyc-lones, Asian monsoon, Madden–Julian oscillation, andannular modes, as well as the predictability of high-impactweather and climate events on multiple time scales. Thecombination of leading scientists and highly topical subjectmatter makes the book particularly appropriate for inclu-sion in the IUGG Special Publications series.

There have been a number of recent books describinghigh-impact or extreme weather and climate events. Manyof these books describe extreme events with simple andvivid images to popularize the science, or they focus on thesocial and economic impacts of extreme events. However,this book focuses on the dynamics and predictability ofextreme events, and assumes prior knowledge of the fun-damentals of atmospheric dynamics. It may be the firstcomprehensive book dedicated to almost all key topics ofextreme weather and climate events, with the main focuson synoptic and larger-scale phenomena. Our intention isnot to create a geographical survey of extreme events, butrather to use specific examples to illustrate broader dynam-ical causes of such events. We anticipate that the book willbecome an important reference for these particular areas ofatmospheric science.

This book is organized into six parts, comprising 27peer-reviewed chapters. Part I, Diagnostics and predictionof high-impact weather, introduces the numerical predic-tion of high-impact weather, and discusses projectedchanges in climate extremes. Part II, High-impact weatherin mid latitudes, discusses the relationship between vari-ations in mid-latitude jet streams and severe weatherevents, troposphere–stratosphere interaction, and the useof probabilistic prediction techniques. Part III, Tropicalcyclones, covers many aspects of the life-cycle of tropicalcyclones and prediction of the associated severe weather.Part IV, Heat waves and cold-air outbreaks, analysessummer heat and drought and their relationship with both






large-scale dynamics and surface conditions. It alsoexplores related mechanisms linked to cold-air outbreaksover Asia. Part V, Ocean connections, explores how theocean contributes to extreme weather and climate events,with a primary focus on extended drought and wet periods.Part VI, Asian monsoons, surveys the prediction of extremeevents associated with the Indian monsoon, and widerconnections with East Asia, the Northwest Pacific, andlinks with annular modes.

The main authors for each chapter are leading scientistsin the field of weather and climate extremes. The bookcomprises the most important content of the ICDM 2012workshop, including contributions from the invited lectur-ers and other selected participants However, in order to

produce a more balanced book, additional contributionswere solicited from other leading researchers in the field.

The book is intended for graduate students and post-doctoral and other researchers who are interested in atmos-pheric dynamics and its relevance to the prediction ofextreme events, across a range of time scales, from short-termweather forecasting to climate prediction. The bookwillprovide a theoretical reference for improving researchers’understanding of the critical issues concerning the dynamicsand predictability of global and regional high-impact weatherand climate events. The improved understanding will alsohelp relevant managers and policy makers to make properdecisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters.

We hope you enjoy reading this book.

viii Preface






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Acknowledgments

This book could not have been completed without thestrong support of the international and national organiza-tions, international and national projects (Fig. P1) asfollows:

• The International Union of Geodesy andGeophysics (IUGG);

• The Observing System Research and PredictabilityExperiment (THORPEX) of the World WeatherResearch Programme (WWRP);

• The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP);

• The Chinese Association for Science andTechnology (CAST);

• The Chinese National Committee for IUGG;

• The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS);

• The National Natural-Science Foundation ofChina (NSFC);

• The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling forAtmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP);

• The National Basic Research Program of China (973Program): “Air-Land-Sea interactions in Asia andtheir role in the global change (ALS)”(2010CB950400);

• The NSFC Key Project: “New theory of planetary wavein non-uniform basic flow and interaction between SHand NH atmospheres” (41030961);

• The International Association of Meteorology andAtmospheric Sciences (IAMAS);

• The International Commission of DynamicalMeteorology (ICDM)/IAMAS;

• Nanjing University.

We sincerely thank all authors of the book chapters fortheir excellent contributions. This comprehensive bookcould not have been completed without their continuedsupport. We are most grateful to the reviewers of thechapters for their constructive reviews, which helpedimprove upon the original manuscripts. The chapterreviewers were as follows: Peter G. Baines, Tom Beer,

Figure P1. Logos of the relevant supporting organizations and projects for the book.






Robin Clark, Henk Dijkstra, Russell L. Elsberry, JuanFeng, Petra Friederichs, Richard Grotjahn, Nili Harnik,Patrick Harr, Bohua Huang, Jianping Li, Jian Ling, YiminLiu, Olivia Martius, Mu Mu, Hisashi Nakamura, TetsuoNakazawa, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Xiaohao Qin, MarkRodwell, Adam A. Scaife, Richard Swinbank, Zhe-MinTan, Tim Woollings, Chun-Chieh Wu, Zhiwei Wu,Shang-Ping Xie, and Feifan Zhou.

Special thanks go to Susan Francis, Zoë Pruce, CassiRoberts, Karyn Bailey, and Rosina Piovani of CambridgeUniversity Press for their guidance throughout the

production of the book. We are very grateful to ZhengLin, Chuanyi Wang, and Wenling Zhou for their excellentsupport with the organization of the workshop. We areparticularly thankful to Chuanyi Wang for her coordinatingefforts in the chapter collecting, language editing andreviewing processes. We also thank Wenling Zhou andXiaoxi Li for their valuable assistance at the early and latestages of book preparation. We also thank Ruiqiang Ding,Wansuo Duan, Qing Bao, Juan Feng, Xiaofeng Li, Xiao-hao Qin, Jie Song, Cheng Sun, Bo Wu, Fei Xie, FeifanZhou, and Yanjie Li for their helpful assistance.

Acknowledgments xi






Contributors

Oscar AlvesCentre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia

Fabio d’AndreaLaboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole NormaleSuperieure, France

Heather ArchambaultNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA

Peter BainesUniversity of Melbourne, Australia

Tom BeerCentre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia

Robin ClarkMet Office Hadley Centre, UK

Henk DijkstraUtrecht University, Netherlands

Philippe DrobinskiLaboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole NormaleSuperieure, France

Russell ElsberryNaval Postgraduate School, USA

Petra FriederichsUniversity of Bonn, Germany

Chaim GarfinkelHebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

Richard GrotjahnUniversity of California, Davis, USA

Nili HarnikTel Aviv University, Israel

Patrick HarrNational Science Foundation, USA

Benjamin J. HenleyUniversity of Melbourne, Australia

Yi-Hsuan HuangNational Taiwan University

Yu KosakaScripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Orli LachmyTel Aviv University, Israel

Jianping LiBeijing Normal University, China

Yimin LiuInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, China

Olivia MartiusUniversity of Bern, Switzerland

Christopher MelhauserPennsylvania State University, USA

Erin B. MunsellPennsylvania State University, USA

Hisashi NakamuraUniversity of Tokyo, Japan

Sumant NigamUniversity of Maryland, USA

Kazuaki NishiiUniversity of Tokyo, Japan

Hyacinth C. NnamchiUniversity of Nigeria, Nigeria

Yvan J. OrsoliniNorwegian Institute for Air Research, and University of Bergen,Norway

Pardeep PallLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

Gwendal RivièreLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole NormaleSuperieure, France

Mark RodwellEuropean Centre for Medium-range Forecasts, UK

Alfredo Ruiz-BarradasUniversity of Maryland, USA

Adam A. ScaifeMet Office Hadley Centre, UK

D. R. SikkaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India

Jason A. SippelI. M. Systems Group, and National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, USA

Marc StéfanonLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment InstitutPierre Simon Laplace, France

Dáithí StoneLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA






Y. Qiang SunPennsylvania State University, USA

Richard SwinbankMet Office, UK

Koutarou TakayaKyoto Sangyo University, Japan

Zhe-Min TanNanjing University, China

Dandan TaoPennsylvania State University, USA

Alan ThorpeEuropean Centre for Medium-range Forecasts, UK

Hsiao-Chung TsaiNaval Postgraduate School Monterey, USA

Hans VolkertDeutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, Germany

Sabrina WahlUniversity of Bonn, Germany

Lin WangUniversity of Tokyo, Japan and Institute of AtmosphericPhysics, China

Michael WehnerLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

Yonghui WengPennsylvania State University, USA

Tim WoollingsUniversity of Oxford, UK

Chun-Chieh WuNational Taiwan University

Guoxiong WuInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, China

Zhiwei WuNanjing University of Information Science and Technology,China

Shang-Ping XieScripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Chidong ZhangUniversity of Miami, USA

Fuqing ZhangPennsylvania State University, USA

Xuebin ZhangEnvironment Canada, Canada

Yongjun ZhengChinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China

Francis ZwiersUniversity of Victoria, Canada

List of contributors xiii






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