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Office: 512-524-0462 | Fax: 866-874-3913 | 11940 Jollyville Rd. Ste 210-S | Austin, TX 78759
BAINES CREEK CAPITAL is an Austin-based investment firm that follows an opportunistic investment strategy using a fundamental, value-oriented approach.
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Thesis Review for Legacy Reserves, Inc.
September 20, 2018
2(Revision 2 - released on 9/28/18)
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Legacy EBITDA and Market Cap
Historical EBITDA Forecasted EBITDA Historical Market Cap Forecasted Market Cap(EV/EBITDA = 6x)
This document presents a thesis developed by Baines Creek Capital (BCC) regarding Legacy Reserves, Inc. (LGCY). We believe this thesis presents a 3X to 13X return over the next 12-48 months.
There are both structural and cyclical inefficiencies at play. Legacy has been in a hated sector (oil and gas) and has operated a hated business model (Upstream MLP).
They have pivoted their business model and have changed their legal structure (MLP to C-corp). This will lead to forced buying from passive index funds in the near term. Provides Legacy better access to capital markets.
BCC expects Legacy to deliver explosive EBITDA growth, drilling on existing assets and within operating cash flow. EBITDA is currently at the highest level ever (Q2TTM ~284M); BCC forecasts EBITDA of ~$930M in 2020 and ~$1.4B by 2022. Assets include significant low decline ($11 / share on liquidation value alone!). Legacy has taken several steps in the last year to substantially reduce risk. At current prices, this investment presents very low likelihood of permanent capital loss.
Executive Summary
Legacy Reserves, Inc. presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile with substantial upside.
Oil Price Crash
Business Model Pivot
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Multiple valuation methods demonstrate that this thesis presents a 3X to 13X return in the next 12-48 months
Executive Summary
Method Value Comment
Operating Valuation~$14/share by YE 2018~$43/share by YE 2020~$59/share by YE 2022
Going-Concern Valuation: Based on detailed modeling and statistical analysis of current operations (Slides 14-28)
Comparative Asset Valuation >$12 / share Downside protection: Based on comparable acquisitions in the same space (EGN) (Slide 30)
Net Asset Valuation >$11 / share Downside protection: Current market liquidation value of existing assets (Slide 31 and appendix)
LGCY share price as of 9/20/18: $4.69/share ($498M market cap)
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(1) Several publications suggest that index funds own about 20% of the broad market (https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1803j.htm), however internal BCC research suggests total passive ownership of some companies or even sectors could exceed 60% depending on the objectives of a respective fund and the sector. The chart above demonstrates this by looking at only three prominent index allocation firms.
Executive SummaryCatalyst: MLP C-corp = Forced Buying
After recently completing its conversion from an MLP to a C-corp, LGCY will now qualify for inclusion in numerous market indices. Funds that track those indices will be required to purchase shares of Legacy in proportion to its size in the respective index. (e.g. Russell 2000, S&P 600 Index, S&P Total Market Index, Dow Jones Total Market Index, etc.)
The chart below shows the portion of the float of peer companies that are owned only by Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street Corp, which focus almost exclusively on passive index allocations. For simplicity, only these three are shown here, but there are hundreds of other funds tracking the myriads of indices that are additive to the percentages shown below.
Legacy currently has very limited ownership by passive funds.
Total index fund holdings in small cap companies range from 15% to 60%(1) of floated shares, suggesting 14M up to 56M shares of LGCY that must be purchased by index funds in the next year!
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Legacy Float ~93M shares
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Investment Thesis for Legacy Reserves, Inc.
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Investment Target
Legacy Reserves, Inc Longstanding Midland, Texas-based operator
(NASDAQ: LGCY)
Unique balance of diversified, stable PDP footprint with significant potential for horizontal drilling in the Permian Basin and East Texas
47.5 MBoe/d from 4 regions with
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Legacy existed as a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) from 2007 to September 2018. It was built on a strategy of buying producing wells that had passed their initial production peak and were in a long-tail, low decline production phase.
They would purchase new assets with significant leverage and distribute the majority of their free cash flow to unit holders. Low interest rates and $90+/bbl
oil attracted significant equity investment with high distributions(yields often >10%+).
In 2014 they were valued at over $1.8B in market cap.
Legacy Reserves, Inc Background
Legacys target purchases as an MLP
Typical well production profile
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LGCY Share Price History
Legacy Reserves 2014 - 2017
When oil collapsed, they cut their distributions (dividends), had to take significant impairments, and faced the risk of breaching several debt covenants.
As an MLP, they had not retained any substantial earnings and fell into a severe liquidity crisis.
The stock fell by ~95% and was priced for bankruptcy. Most of their peers went bankrupt. Most analysts stopped following the stock.
BCC started buying Legacys unsecured debt in early 2016 and built a strong understanding of the business and its asset base.
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Legacy Leverage Ratio (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Hist. Leverage Ratio Forecasted Leverage Ratio
Legacy Reserves 2014 - 2017Carefully managed liquidityWhen the oil market crashed, Legacy, like most of its peers, faced a severe liquidity crisis as their net debt to EBITDA ratio climbed to nearly 8X. They made a number of key decisions to manage liquidity and provide time to pivot their business model.
In 2015/16 they sold less performing assetsto increase liquidity and get covenant relief.
In 2015 they signed a key agreement with TSSP to pay the cost to start a horizontal drilling program with existing assets; they turned their focus on growing EBITDA and improving their leverage ratio (as opposed to paying down or immediately restructuring debt).
In 2016 they signed a second lien (2L) term loan with GSO.
Provided 50% more liquidity Helped to prove the value of their assets
They had a reasonably strong hedging strategy to support revenue and liquidity needs.
All of these moves gave them relief from creditors and provided headroom to allow them to pivot their business.(1)
Liquidity Crisis
10(1) See current debt summary and leverage ratio forecast in the appendix, slide 62.
(1)
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Legacy Partner
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Key Partnerships Enabled GrowthJoint Development Agreement In 2015, Legacy signed a key agreement
(the JDA) with a private investment firm (TSSP) to fund the initial horizontal drilling of its existing locations per the terms shown here.
This allowed them to prove they could execute a horizontal
drilling program and grow EBITDA with existing assets.
The JDA enabled a pivot in their business model from an operator of mature wells to an exploration and production (E&P) company, drilling new wells on existing locations that they owned. (We believe the market did not recognize the pivot and continued to price them for bankruptcy with their upstream MLP peers.)
Legacy PartnerCapital Contribution (%) 5% 95%Capital Contribution ($mm) $14.50 $275Initial Working Interest (WI) 20% 80%WI after partner recieves 15% IRR 85% 15%
JDA Tranche 1 Terms
11(1) Source: Legacy Presentation at the IPAA OGIS Conference in New York, April 2017
(1)
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Key Partnerships Enabled Growth The JDA program went very well. In Q317, Legacy payed TSSP $141m
to pull forward the reversion date into 2017.
They were buying EBITDA to drivedown the leverage ratio and committing to transform into an E&P company.
They are currently receiving the benefit of significant EBITDA growth from the JDA operation and subsequent development.
33% Q/Q growth in Q317 41% Q/Q growth in Q417 BCC estimates 2018 EBITDA will be >40% higher
than 2017
Reversion pulled forward 3+ years to Q3 2017
Q2 2018 TTM EBITDA of ~$284M is the highest theyve ever generated!
12(1) Source: Legacy Presentation at the IPAA OGIS Conference in New York, April 2017
Tranche 1 Reversion Profile (48 wells) (1)
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From 2015 through 2017, the market priced Legacy for bankruptcy, and even now does not seem to recognize current value nor sizeable growth potential in the coming years.
The company has a large inventory of quality assets, acquired over 10+ years and held by production with very low decline (
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(1) Its instructive to compare Legacys production to other companies with higher decline, newer wells. For example, consider a hypothetical Company A with 100k Boepd with a 35% decline (typical of Permian operators with predominantly new shale wells) vs Legacy with 47.5k Boepd with 11% decline. Given an estimated type curve for Permian production, if neither company drilled any new wells, Company As production would decline to match Legacys production in about 5 years, erasing Company As production advantage. To offset this, Company A has to spend heavily in CapEx just to maintain production, let alone grow.
Legacys operating value is built on two key factors: Existing Production: Legacy has a strong foundation of low-decline (
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Operating Value- Modeling Operations -
Very simply, oil and gas production is the summation of declining production from existing wells (Proven Developed Producing (PDP)) plus new production from drilling activity.
Total Production (Boe)
Existing Production
Newly drilled Production
= x Annual Decline Rate
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Legacy has significant assets with low-decline (
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Operating Value- Existing Production -
Q218 daily production of 47.5 Mboepd PDP Reserves to Production (R/P) of 9.6 years BCC has estimated type curves of Legacys long
term production decline, necessary to forecast cash flow from existing production going forward.
Most E&P companies do not have the stable low-decline production that Legacy does. That is why growth in this thesis is so pronounced. Other E&Ps do not get the same impact when spending within operating cash flow.
To get similar EBITDA growth, other E&Ps have to significantly outspend operating cash flow. In fact, in high decline (>30%) shale development, most companies have to spend significant CapEx just to maintain EBITDA, let alone grow.
We believe Legacy is likely to spend heavily to drill its existing acreage, within operating cash flow. This will rapidly grow EBITDA and allow them to grow into their debt. (see following slides)
Legacys low decline PDP is a solid foundation to enable growth.
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75% of current production has
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Operating Value- Modeling Newly Drilled Production -
New production is proportional to.1) How much the company spends in CapEx (new horizontal drilling and completion costs) and
2) How efficiently it can allocate that capital (well cost / 1st year production).
New Production
(Boepd)
=CapEx ($)
Capital Efficiency ($/Boepd)
CapEx ($) = Avg Cost per well x# Wells Drilled
Capital Efficiency ($/Boepd)
=Total Well Cost ($)
Average Daily Year 1 Production
(Boepd)
Drilling and Completion Model Assumptions
2018 CapEx Budget: $225M(1) 2019 CapEx Budget (BCC Est.): ~$400M 2020 CapEx Budget (BCC Est.): ~$750M 2021 CapEx Budget (BCC Est.): ~$900M Permian Capital Eff: ~$17k-$28k / Boepd(2) E. Texas Capital Eff: ~$1.3k-$2.1k / Mcfepd(2)
(1) Legacy 2017 YE report published on February 2018(2) Capital efficiency values depend on region, geology and potentially macro economic factors (availability of labor,
material costs, etc.). See appendix for additional detail on capital efficiency and EBITDA/production growth. 17
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Operating Value- Legacy Operated Acreage/Drilling Locations -
Legacy has 41k de-risked net acres that contain 695 gross/ 485 net additional locations in its Permian operating regions.
East TX also represents 244 gross/ 187 net locations.
This excludes any existing non-op positions, overriding royalty interests, and potential future locations stemming from reversion of term assignments.
BCC estimates Legacy will drill between 12 and 20 wells per quarter in the Permian, and between 2 and 13 wells per quarter in East Texas in 2019 and 2020 respectively (within operating cash flow).
Legacy suggests it has up to 23 years of drillable inventory at current drilling rates before it
would have to acquire new locations.(1)
(1) Source: Q218 earnings presentation. BCC estimates they will accelerate from their current drilling rate. 18
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Operating Value- Production and Cash Flow Analysis -
BCC expects Legacy will pour nearly all operating cash flow into CapEx to develop existing acreage through 2020, and from there, it will be able to pay down debt, grow free cash flow, and likely acquire new drillable assets.(2)
2017 CapEx: ~$177M 2017 EBITDA: ~$226M 2018 CapEx: ~$225M 2018 EBITDA: ~$317M 2019 CapEx: ~$400M 2019 EBITDA: ~$500M 2020 CapEx: ~$750M 2020 EBITDA: ~$930M 2021 CapEx: ~$900M 2021 EBITDA: ~$1,200M
(1) LGCY Corporate Transition Presentation March 2018(2) BCC believes Legacy could alternatively maintain its current debt level indefinitely and invest free
cash flow in EBITDA growth.
Stated Corporate Objective: Accelerate Development to Capture Upside -Depending on the availability of cash flows, accelerating development of high-return, identified horizontal drilling locations within existing Permian and East Texas acreage(1)
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The key to Legacys operating value in the next 5 years will be explosive EBITDA growth, coming from heavy
CapEx investment, primarily into existing assets and within operating cash flow.
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BCC is forecasting substantial EBITDA growth in 2019 and 2020. The chart below describes the key factors contributing to that growth.
This bridge is based on nominal model inputs shown in the monte carlo input summary (slide 25). EBITDA growth from new production in both the Permian Basin and East Texas are the largest contributors in both
2019 and 2020 ($160M and $409M) respectively. Note the small decline rate of historical production this allows new horizontal production to have a dramatic
impact on EBITDA. They are not replacing EBITDA; theyre adding to it! See Appendix for more detail on how Legacy is able to grow EBITDA.
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Legacy has been an equity stub for some time $498M in market cap (as of 9/20/18) $1.319B in net debt (Q2 reported) Enterprise value = $1.817B
Q218 TTM EBITDA was $284M(highest theyve ever recorded!), yielding a trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.4.
Using reasonable assumptions for oil prices and conservative forecasts for other operating parameters of the business, BCC forecasts the company to generate TTM EBITDA results of $317M by YE 2018, $504M by YE 2019 and ~$926M by YE 2020
If we assume the same TTM EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.4, the market cap at YE 2018 would be $707M, which would be a 42% return against September 2018 prices. Further in 2020, the market cap would be ~$4.6B, an 825% return from current prices.
The above analysis is a very simplified representation. We do not get to choose and cannot know exactly how the market will price the company. See following slides for a simplified sensitivity study.
Further, this analysis refers to trailing 12-month EBITDA and EV/EBITDA multiples for simplicity, to define a valuation derived from actual reported numbers. However, Legacy has transitioned from an MLP to a C-corp. When it discloses specific and substantial growth plans, it will not be priced on trailing 12-month multiples but rather on future plans and opportunities. The remainder of this report will evaluate Legacy against forward 12-month estimates for EBITDA and multiples(1). As Legacys growth plans mature, its trailing and forward multiples will come closer together(2).
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Operating Value- TTM EV/EBITDA Model -
(1) See appendix for comparison against both forward and trailing multiples for 20 peer companies. (2) See slide 33 to compare estimated forward and trailing multiples as Legacy grows over the next 5 years.
Q218 TTM ($M)
2018 YETTM
Forecast ($M)
2019 YETTM
Forecast ($M)
2020 YETTM
Forecast ($M)Market Cap 498$ 707$ 1,905$ 4,607$
Total Net Debt 1,319$ 1,319$ 1,319$ 1,319$ Enterprise Value (EV) 1,817$ 2,026$ 3,224$ 5,927$ EBITDA (TTM) 284$ 317$ 504$ 926$ EV/EBITDA 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Return 42% 282% 825%
Oil (WTI) in Q418/'19/'20 = $70/$75/$80
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4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0$55 4x 4.6x 5.3x 5.9x 6.6x 7.2x 7.9x 8.5x 9.2x$60 4.4x 5.1x 5.8x 6.5x 7.2x 7.9x 8.6x 9.3x 10x$65 4.8x 5.5x 6.3x 7.1x 7.8x 8.6x 9.3x 10.1x 10.8x$70 5.2x 6x 6.8x 7.6x 8.4x 9.2x 10x 10.9x 11.7x$75 5.6x 6.5x 7.3x 8.2x 9x 9.9x 10.8x 11.6x 12.5x$80 6x 6.9x 7.8x 8.7x 9.7x 10.6x 11.5x 12.4x 13.3x$85 6.4x 7.4x 8.3x 9.3x 10.3x 11.2x 12.2x 13.2x 14.1x$90 6.8x 7.8x 8.9x 9.9x 10.9x 11.9x 12.9x 13.9x 14.9x$95 7.2x 8.3x 9.4x 10.4x 11.5x 12.6x 13.6x 14.7x 15.8x
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2021 Forward EV/EBITDA MultipleYE 2021 Multiple Sensitivity (vs Q318 prices)
Assumptions:Baseline Market Cap: $498M; $4.69/shareAssumed 2021 Shares Oustanding: 146M sharesNatural Gas (HH) - strip prices (average $2.68 Q418 through 2021)Oil Prices (WTI) in Q4'18/'19/'20/'21 - $70/$75/$80/$85 per Bbl
The above matrix allows for a what-if consideration of value against a range of possible forward 12-month EV/EBITDA multiples and oil price scenarios. The top row is the EV/EBITDA multiple; the left column is a range of 2022 oil prices (which drives EBITDA). The table shows return multiples at YE 2021 against a $4.69/share price (as of 9/20/18). Peer EV/EBITDA multiples are provided for comparison and taken from 20 companies in the same space, as valued in September 2018. See appendix (slide 64) for details on peer company multiples.
Legacy in Q318
If the market pays just the average forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6X and oil prices in 2022 fall between $65 and $90, this is an 7.8X to 10.9X return in 2021 versus Q3 2018 prices
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Operating Value- Forward EV/EBITDA Model -
Min Max Mean Median St. Dev3.73 9.93 6.26 6.45 1.87
LGCY FWD EV/EBITDA (9/20/18): 4.5
Peer CompaniesForward EV/ EBITDA Multiples @Q2E'18
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4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0$55 18.59$ 21.66$ 24.73$ 27.79$ 30.86$ 33.93$ 37.00$ 40.07$ 43.13$ $60 20.52$ 23.82$ 27.13$ 30.44$ 33.75$ 37.06$ 40.37$ 43.67$ 46.98$ $65 22.44$ 25.99$ 29.54$ 33.09$ 36.64$ 40.19$ 43.73$ 47.28$ 50.83$ $70 24.36$ 28.15$ 31.94$ 35.73$ 39.52$ 43.31$ 47.10$ 50.89$ 54.68$ $75 26.29$ 30.32$ 34.35$ 38.38$ 42.41$ 46.44$ 50.47$ 54.50$ 58.53$ $80 28.21$ 32.48$ 36.76$ 41.03$ 45.30$ 49.57$ 53.84$ 58.11$ 62.38$ $85 30.14$ 34.65$ 39.16$ 43.67$ 48.18$ 52.70$ 57.21$ 61.72$ 66.23$ $90 32.06$ 36.82$ 41.57$ 46.32$ 51.07$ 55.82$ 60.57$ 65.33$ 70.08$ $95 33.99$ 38.98$ 43.97$ 48.97$ 53.96$ 58.95$ 63.94$ 68.94$ 73.93$
Assumptions:Assumed 2021 Shares Oustanding: 146M sharesNatural Gas (HH) - strip prices (average $2.68 Q418 through 2021)Oil Prices (WTI) in Q4'18/'19/'20/'21 - $70/$75/$80/$85 per Bbl
2021 Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple
2022
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YE 2021 LGCY Share Price Sensitivity
The above matrix allows for a what-if consideration of valuation against a range of possible forward 12-month Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA multiples and oil price scenarios. The top row is the EV/EBITDA multiple; the left column is a range of 2022 oil prices and resultant EBITDA. The table shows share prices at YE 2021. Peer EV/EBITDA multiples are provided for comparison and taken from 20 companies in the same space, as valued in September 2018. See appendix (slide 64) for details on peer company multiples.
If the market pays just the average forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6X and oil prices in 2022 fall between $65 and $90, the share price would be ~$37-$51/share! (share price as of 9/20/18 - $4.69/share)
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Operating Value- Forward EV/EBITDA Model -
Legacy in Q318
Min Max Mean Median St. Dev3.73 9.93 6.26 6.45 1.87
LGCY FWD EV/EBITDA (9/20/18): 4.5
Peer CompaniesForward EV/ EBITDA Multiples @Q2E'18
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Operating Value - Monte Carlo Analysis -
BCC has modeled all aspects of Legacys business. A monte carlo (MC) analysis was used to randomly apply an array of inputs over
100k scenarios to gain an understanding of the range and likelihood of possible outcomes.
The following pages describe the model inputs and results for 2018 through 2022, as well as a more robust sensitivity study for all inputs.
Beware of geeks with models. Warren E. Buffet We recognize this thesis is a part of a dynamic complex adaptive system that cannot be
precisely modeled. Identifying and developing a thesis like this is more of an art than a science. Information from this MC analysis is only one piece of a big puzzle. We use it with
caution as we evaluate the entire thesis. It does, however, allow us to consider some elements that may have a larger effect than
others and broaden our thinking in regards to both downside and upside potential.
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Operating Value- Monte Carlo Model Inputs -
(1) Note that the model includes many more inputs than shown (e.g. oil/gas /NGL production content, capital efficiencies, future interest rates, basis differentials for Midland-Cushing/Waha/Carthage/NWP (currently modeled with strip prices), well economics, hedging, and others. Only the inputs above were varied for the MC study. All others held constant.
(2) The nominal natural gas prices are the strip prices as of 9/18/18. Average annual prices are shown here, but this analysis varies all quarterly NG Prices within the bounds shown. (3) EV in consideration of convertible notes assumes $6/share, ~106.1M shares outstanding (see Legacy 8k 9/20/18) and Q218 Net Debt of $1,319M. (4) This model assumes Legacy will start purchasing new Permian locations starting in 2021, after using all of its current Bone Spring, Spraberry, Wolfcamp identified locations. The model
currently does not incorporate any swap opportunities, as Legacy has recently described in its Q218 earnings report regarding ~15.5k net de-risked acres within the Delaware and Midland basins for swap and/or any of its unidentified non-de-risked acreage.
The MC model randomly assigns inputs within the distributions defined here and saves the outputs to present a broad range of potential outcomes. Further the model evaluates how sensitive the results are to each of these inputs(1). (see following slides)
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EV at Q318 debt exchange for convertible notes
(i.e. an equity issuance): $1,956B ($6/share)(3)
Normal Distribution Mean
Standard Deviation
(sigma) 3 sigma min 3 sigma maxQ4 2018 Oil Price 70$ 2$ 64$ 76$ 2019 Oil Price 75$ 3$ 66$ 84$ 2020 Oil Price 80$ 4$ 68$ 92$ 2021 Oil Price 85$ 5$ 70$ 100$ 2022 Oil Price 90$ 5$ 75$ 105$ Q4 2018 Nat Gas Price (2) 2.92$ 0.10$ 2.62$ 3.22$ 2019 Nat Gas Price 2.74$ 0.10$ 2.68$ 3.28$ 2020 Nat Gas Price 2.63$ 0.15$ 2.40$ 3.30$ 2021 Nat Gas Price 2.60$ 0.20$ 2.00$ 3.20$ 2022 Nat Gas Price 2.61$ 0.25$ 1.86$ 3.36$
Min Nominal Max5.00$ 6.50$ 8.00$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
50,000$ 100,000$ 150,000$ 1,900,000$ 2,250,000$ 2,600,000$
9 12 1512 18 2448 72 1202 4 6
4.5 6 7.5
Permian San Andreas Shelby FreestoneYes Yes Yes No
Acquire new locations (4):
EV at Equity Issue (x1000):Permian Wells / qtr ('19):Permian Wells / qtr ('20):Permian Wells /Yr (2021 onward):Shelby Wells/qtr (2020 onward):FWD EV/EBITDA Multiple:
Equity Issued (x1000):
Triangle DistributionPermian Horizontal LOE/ BOE:Piceance Asset Sale:
Other Assets Sale: E. Binger Asset Sale:
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5.0% 90.0% 5.0%
$40.03 $67.59
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2021 Share Price:
2021 Share Price:
Minimum $26.219Maximum $91.511Mean $53.044Std Dev $8.385Values 100000
Operating Value- Share Price Results as of 9/20/18 -
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(1) In this context, share price is a reference to our estimate of fair value, not an explicit prediction of market price.
Mean 5%-ile 95%-ile2018 13.80$ 9.44$ $ 18.39 2019 30.95$ 23.24$ 39.24$ 2020 42.56$ 32.19$ 53.95$ 2021 53.04$ 40.03$ 67.59$ 2022 59.33$ 45.30$ 75.11$
Forecasted Share Price at Year End
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LGCY Forecasted Share Price(year end values)
Mean 5%-ile 95%-ile
5.0% 90.0% 5.0%
$23.24 $39.24
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
2019 Share Price:
2019 Share Price:
Minimum $15.648Maximum $52.054Mean $30.946Std Dev $4.846Values 100000
-
5.0% 90.0% 5.0%
1.038 1.372
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
Values in Millions ($)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Valu
es x
10^
-6
2021 EBITDA
2021 EBITDA
Minimum $818,081.46Maximum $1,692,837.84Mean $1,198,668.98Std Dev $101,747.95Values 100000
Operating Value- EBITDA Results as of 9/20/18 -
27
Mean 5%-ile 95%-ile2018 316,645$ 314,161$ 319,111$ 2019 504,129$ 458,242$ 552,473$ 2020 925,912$ 818,561$ 1,035,563$ 2021 1,198,669$ 1,037,652$ 1,371,819$ 2022 1,441,130$ 1,217,166$ 1,687,644$
TTM EBITDA (x1000)
$-
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(x 1
000)
TTM EBITDA(year end values)
Mean 5%-ile 95%-ile
5.0% 90.0% 5.0%
$458,242 $552,473
$350
,000
$400
,000
$450
,000
$500
,000
$550
,000
$600
,000
$650
,000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Valu
es x
10^
-5
2019 EBITDA
2019 EBITDA
Minimum $393,291.91Maximum $614,822.23Mean $504,129.36Std Dev $28,669.85Values 100000
(x 1000)
Value in Billions ($)
-
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
2021 EBITDAValues in Millions ($)
E. Binger Sale: / Value
2019 Oil Price / Value
Equity Issued (x1000): / Value
Permian Wells / qtr ('19): /
Permian HZ LOE/ BOE: / Value
Permian Wells / qtr ('20): /
Shelby Wells/qtr (2020 onwa
2021 Nat Gas Price / Value
Permian Wells /Yr (2021 on
2021 Oil Price / Value
2021 EBITDAInputs Ranked By Effect on Output Mean
Input High
Input Low
Baseline = $1,198,668.98
$507,743.78
$503,723.88 $504,861.79
$503,501.15 $504,611.72
$503,731.36 $504,792.04
$503,773.89 $504,519.50
$460
,000
$470
,000
$480
,000
$490
,000
$500
,000
$510
,000
$520
,000
$530
,000
$540
,000
$550
,000
2019 EBITDA
Q42018 Oil Price / Value
Q418 Nat Gas Price / Value
Equity Issued (x1000): /
E. Binger Sale: / Value
Permian HZ LOE/ BOE: /
2019 Nat Gas Price / Value
2019 Oil Price / Value
Permian Wells / qtr ('19):
2019 EBITDAInputs Ranked By Effect on Output Mean
Input High
Input Low
Baseline = $504,129.36
$42.655 $63.472
$49.343 $56.676
$50.582 $55.055
$51.794 $54.435
$51.838 $53.986
$52.007 $53.985
$52.247 $53.830
$52.514 $53.760
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
2021 Share Price:
2020 Oil Price / Value
Permian HZ LOE/ BOE: / Permian Wells / qtr ('20):
EV at equity raise (x1000
Equity Issued (x1000): /
Shelby Wells/qtr (2020 o
2022 Nat Gas Price / Value
2022 Oil Price / ValuePermian Wells /Yr (2021
FWD EV/EBITDA Multiple
2021 Share Price:Inputs Ranked By Effect on Output Mean
Input High
Input Low
Baseline = $53.044
$24.160 $37.756
$33.486
$29.869 $31.963
$29.903 $31.976
$30.147 $31.716
$30.259 $31.690
$30.192 $31.482
$30.529 $31.369
$30.778 $31.102
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
2019 Share Price:
2019 Oil Price / Value
Permian HZ LOE/ BOE: / EV at equity raise (x1000
Equity Issued (x1000): /
Permian Wells / qtr ('19):
2020 Nat Gas Price / Value
Shelby Wells/qtr (2020 o
Permian Wells / qtr ('20): 2020 Oil Price / Value
FWD EV/EBITDA Multiple
2019 Share Price:Inputs Ranked By Effect on Output Mean
Input High
Input Low
Baseline = $30.946
Operating Value- Sensitivity Results as of 9/20/18 -
Sensitivity: as the model iterates through hundreds of thousands of scenarios, it evaluates how much the outputs (e.g. share price and EBITDA) vary with changes to each input. These are summarized in the plots below with the lowest sensitivities on the bottom of each plot to the highest sensitivity on the top.
28
EBITDA, which strongly effects how the market will value the company, is driven largely on drilling performance and commodity prices.
EBITDA, which strongly effects how the market will value the company, is driven largely on drilling performance and commodity prices.
Note that equity issuance, while important, is not the largest contributor to value(1)
Note that equity issuance, while important, is not the largest contributor to value(1)
(1) In this context, share price is a reference to our estimate of fair value, not an explicit prediction of market price.
Lower Upper
1.08$ 1.32$ 1.11$ 1.30$ 1.14$ 1.26$ 1.15$ 1.25$ 1.16$ 1.24$ 1.18$ 1.21$ 1.19$ 1.21$ 1.19$ 1.20$ 1.20$ 1.20$ 1.20$ 1.20$
(x Billions)
Value in Billions ($)
(x 1000)
-
The previous slides present a valuation based on the operating potential of the business.
It is instructive to also consider the value of the existing operation and assets, regardless of growth opportunities
As a downside protection(If Legacy decided to sell assets, what would they be worth?)
As an indicator of current value.
The following slides present two measures of asset valuation:
Comparative Market Value considers asset value of a recent market acquisition (Energen) and applies the same value to Legacys assets. ~$12 / share
Net Asset Value looks at liquidation value of Legacys assets(2) ~$11 / share
29
Asset Valuation
(1) Legacys Q2 Earnings Presentation, August 2018(2) See appendix for greater detail on the liquidation value of Legacys assets.
(1)
-
On August 14, 2018 Diamondback (FANG) announced it was acquiring Energen (EGN) for $9.2B. Energens asset base is comparable to Legacys, and this transaction can be used as a proxy for Legacys asset value.
Energen: 244k Net Permian Acres/160.5k Net Mid-Del Acres/97.4 MBoepd (est. >30% decline)
If Legacys assets, were priced the same as Energens, its market cap could exceed
~$1.25B and share price of >$12/share.
Legacy: ~250k Net Permian Acres (BCC est.)/36.7k Net Mid-Del Acres/47.5 MBoepd ($13.3/share, but to simplify the analysis on this page, we applied the same metrics to both EGN and LGCY production.
(4) Legacy 8k September 20, 2018 lists share count of 106.1M shares(5) Other assets are more subjective to value and are thus not included in this comparison. Legacys Other Permian Net
Acreage is based on BCC internal research as it is not published by the company. 30
Comparative Asset Value(EGN vs LGCY)
Source: Legacy 2017 Earnings Presentation
Source: Energen Q2 2018 investor Presentation
Delaware Net Acres 66,187 13,346 Midland Net Acres 94,303 23,346 Total Mid/Del Net Acreage (1): 160,490 36,692 Implied Price $/acre (2) 39,862$ 39,862$
6,397,452,380$ 1,462,616,504$
Production (Mboepd): 97400 47500Production Mix - % oi l : 58% 38%
35,000$ 35,000$ 18,000$ 18,000$
2,713,564,000$ 1,161,850,000$ Net Debt: 829,812,000$ 1,319,246,000$ Net Asset Value: 8,281,204,380$ 1,305,220,504$ Share Count (4): 97,481,597 106,100,000
Share Price ($/share): 84.95$ 12.30$ Other Assets (not included above) (5)Other Permian Net Acreage: 83,642 ~213,300East Texas Acreage: 165,000
Infrastructure: est. $100M in
pipelines/ other
LegacyKey Permian Acreage
Production Value (3) :
Market Value of Net Acreage:
Market va lue of oi l production ($/Boepd):Market va lue of Gas /NGL Production
Energen
-
Fair market value of all Permian acreage plus proven reserves based on comparable sales in respective regions is conservatively estimated to be up to $2,363M. East Texas Acreage and other assets are conservatively $132M(see appendix for more detail).
Total asset value (not entirely reflected on the balance sheet) is estimated to be ~$2,495M.
Long Term Debt: ~$1,319M
$2,495M(assets) - $1,319M(debt) = $1,176M versus $498M market cap (as of 9/20/18) the net assets alone are worth ~2.4X the market cap of the whole company!
Net Asset ValueLiquidation Value of Permian Acreage
(1) $1.176B (NAV) / 106.1M shares outstanding = $11.08 / share; for share count, see Legacy 8k dated 9/20/18.(2) Source: Legacy 2017 Earnings Presentation 31
(2)
Net Asset Value alone suggests a conservative share price of $11+/share(1)
BCC Net Asset Value AnalysisPDP Reserves: ~$1,416MDe-Risked 41k Net Permian Acres: ~$511MAdditional Identified Drilling Acres (15k) ~$339MAdditional Net Permian Acres ~$97MEast Texas Acreage ~$32MPipeline Assets and Other Infrastructure: ~$100MTotal Asset Value: ~$2,495MNet Debt: ~$1,319MNet Asset Value: ~$1,176MMarket cap (as of 9/20/18): $498MNAV/ Market Cap: 2.4x
-
(1) Source: Legacy Q2 2018 Earnings Presentations(2) See current debt summary and leverage ratio forecast in the appendix, slide 62.(3) The new 2023 Notes mandatorily convert when the common shares trade above $6 for 20 days out of any 30 day period.(4) East Binger is currently marketed for sale. https://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/marketed-legacy-reserves-caddo-county-nitrogen-flood-asset-1714601(5) Proforma Q318 leverage ratio gives effect to the conversion of the 2023 convertible notes.
Catalysts for Unlocking Value
Transition from an MLP structure to a C-corp Closed on September 20, 2018 Whiteout transaction: the company formed a new entity that acquired the GP of the former MLP partnership, and had a subsidiary that
merged with the LP. $237.5M par value in preferred shareholder equity was converted to common stock. Additionally, $47.5M in deferred distributions were
eliminated to clear the path for a potential equity raise and/or other measures to recapitalize the business. Management has indicated the importance of this transaction to provide enhance[d] access to, and lower cost of, capital(1). It allows them
access to a larger field of both lenders and investors. Transaction is likely to induce forced buying from index funds and open up Legacy to a much larger investor base.
Recapitalize the Company(2) Q318 to Q119 Equity Raise: BCC believes this is likely to happen through further debt for equity swaps or an offering of newly issued shares (there are other
potential options, but we believe they are less likely given current circumstances). As announced on 9/14/18, Legacy has entered into an agreement with holders of existing unsecured notes due in 2020 and 2021 to
exchange a portion of them for convertible notes due in 2023.(3) Asset Sales: Potentially sell non-strategic assets (East Binger(4), Piceance, other Rockies or non-core assets). Refinance and/or receive an extension of the current bank revolver.
(OCC compliance rules require leverage ratio below 4X; BCC estimates Q318 proforma leverage ratio of 3.96!(5)) Refinance 2L loan and/or unsecured notes
(Most likely requires a leverage ratio of ~3x or lower to refinance, hence the likely equity raise above) Accelerate development programs with existing Permian Basin and East Texas assets2019 onward
Expected to fund entirely within operating cash flow, building on a strong foundation of low-decline PDP. BCC forecasts debt levels to remain constant for a couple of years before possibly being paid down with forecasted EBITDA growth.
(However, Legacy could maintain debt levels indefinitely, and invest operating cash flow in EBITDA growth.) This effort is likely to generate extreme EBITDA growth in 2019 (~$490M) and 2020 (~$930m).
Legacy is positioned to recapitalize in order to enable growth.
32
-
Step 1 Step 2 Step 39/20/2018 YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
1L Revolver 508,000$ 532,000$ 321,000$ 74,000$ -$ -$ 2L Term loan 338,626$ 338,626$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 8% Notes 211,989$ 211,989$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 6.625% Notes 136,579$ 136,579$ 136,579$ -$ -$ -$ Convertible 8% Notes 130,000$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ New Note A 300,000$ 400,000$ 400,000$ 400,000$ New Note B 350,000$ 550,000$ 550,000$ 550,000$ (Less Cash) 5,948$ 433$ 732$ 810$ 81,556$ 382,759$ Net Debt: 1,319,246$ 1,218,761$ 1,106,847$ 1,023,190$ 868,444$ 567,241$ TTM EBITDA 283,802$ 316,645$ 503,831$ 926,213$ 1,167,692$ 1,386,696$ FWD EBITDA(4) 400,674$ 503,831$ 926,213$ 1,167,692$ 1,386,696$ 1,507,638$ EV/ FWD EBITDA(5) 4.53 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 EV/ TTM EBITDA 6.40 9.55 11.03 7.56 7.13 6.52 Enterprise Value 1,816,855$ 3,022,986$ 5,557,280$ 7,006,155$ 8,320,175$ 9,045,826$ Market Cap 497,609$ 1,804,225$ 4,450,433$ 5,982,964$ 7,451,732$ 8,478,586$ Shares outstanding 106,100,000 130,875,648 143,566,751 144,738,582 145,910,413 148,254,075 LGCY Share Price 4.69 $13.79 $31.00 $41.34 $51.07 $57.19
Debt/TTM EBITDA 4.65 3.85 2.20 1.10 0.74 0.41
Step 4
(all values x1000, except share price and ratios)
C-corp Conversion - "Whiteout"
Transaction" and Note Exchange
Convert 2023 notes(2); Bank
Extension; Asset Sale(3)
Equity Raise(1); Refi. 2L/8%
Notes; Accelerate
Perm. Drillng; Start E.Tx Test
Wells
Increase Permian and E. Tx. Drilling
Continue Permian and E. Tx. Drilling; begin
acquiring and drilling new acreage
Catalysts for Unlocking Value- Potential steps forward -
(1) Assumed $100M in equity raised at a $2.25B enterprise value.(2) The new 2023 Notes mandatorily convert when the common shares trade above $6 for 20 days out of any 30 day period.(3) Could include sales of non-core assets (E. Binger, Piceance, other)(4) EBITDA is driven by oil price assumptions. Oil prices for Q418/19/20/21/22 assumed to be $70/ $75/ $80/ $85/$90 per Bbl respectively(5) A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0 has been assumed throughout this presentation (i.e. the nominal value in the monte carlo simulation), however a range of multiples could be
warranted. See appendix for comparable forward EV/EBITDA multiples. Note how the trailing and fwd EV/EBITDA multiples converge as the company gets through its initial growth stage.(6) Trailing EV/EBITDA
-
Catalysts for Unlocking Value- Index Funds Ownership Potential -
After transitioning its legal structure from an MLP to a C-corp, Legacy will now be exposed to a much larger universe of potential buyers, most notably index funds which will be forced to buy.
These funds could be required to purchase upwards of 15%-60% of the company passively. As an example, the table below suggests a very simple calculation of the target share count
holding of index funds tracking the Russell 2000.
Funds tracking the Russell 2000 index alone could be forced buyers of nearly 2.7 MILLION shares of LGCY (avg daily volume in Q3 is ~350k shares).
- Forced buying with no large sellers could yield rapid share price appreciation -
34
Russell 2000 Market Cap ($trillions): 2.60$ Index Fund Ownership of R2K ($billions): 67.00$
Legacy Market Cap ($millions): 498.00$ LGCY Share Price: 4.69$
LGCY % of R2K: 0.02%Index fund target holding of LGCY ($millions): 12.83$
Index fund share ownership of LGCY (x 1 million): 2.7 % of LGCY Shares Outstanding: 2.6%
-
Catalysts for Unlocking Value- Index Funds Ownership Potential -
There are numerous indices (e.g. Russell 2000, S&P 600, S&P Total Market Index, Dow Jones Total Market Index, etc.) and even more funds that track those indices (e.g. iShares S&P 600 growth (IJT), iShares core S&P small cap ETF (IJR), Vanguard Small Cap Index (VB), Fidelity Small Cap Index (FSSPX), SPDR S&P 600 small cap growth (SLYG), etc.)
The chart below shows what portion of the float of peer companies is owned by just 3 of the largest index fund operators: Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street Corp. There are hundreds of funds beyond these, tracking the myriads of indices. These are shown only for simplicity, but demonstrate the large percentage of passive ownership that exists in companies in this space.
Legacy currently has almost no passive ownership.
Total index fund holdings of peer companies range from 15% to as high as 60%(1) of floated shares, suggesting 14M up to 56M shares of LGCY that must be purchased by index funds in the next year!
(1) Several publications suggest that index funds own about 20% of broad market (https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1803j.htm), however internal BCC research suggests total passive ownership could exceed 60% of some companies, depending on the objectives of a respective fund and the sector. The chart above demonstrates this by looking at only three prominent index allocation firms. 35
Legacy Float ~93M shares
-
(1) See slide 30 for an analysis of Legacys assets based on Diamondbacks acquisition of Energen in Q318, suggesting a share price, on asset value alone of >$12 / share. (2) See the appendix for a detailed overview of the liquidation value of Legacys assets, suggesting a share price on liquidation value alone of ~$11/ share. (3) See current debt summary and leverage ratio forecast in the appendix, slide 62.(4) The new 2023 Notes mandatorily convert when the common shares trade above $6 for 20 days out of any 30 day period.(5) Proforma Q318 leverage ratio gives affect to the conversion of the 2023 convertible notes.
Risk ConsiderationsBCC regards risk simply as the likelihood of losing money. An exhaustive risk analysis has been conducted. The following highlights several risk factors and at least partial mitigation for each: Margin of safety
At September 2018 prices, we believe this thesis provides substantial margin of safety such that, even if extreme unexpected events occur or we have made mistakes, we are likely to still make money.
See appendix for an evaluation of the market value of Legacys assets alone: A comparative market valuation, based on a recent market transaction (EGN) suggests an asset value of > $12/share.(1) Liquidation value of production and assets are estimated to be ~$11 / share.(2)
Founders/Management: One of the key intangible factors in this thesis is that some of the founders are still on the board and/or hold significant equity stakes. Further, collectively, the founders and management own ~12% of the common equity; so interests are well aligned to common share holders for the foreseeable future.
Risks associated with debt refinancingIf debt markets tighten and/or the company has any operational difficulty that might slow the reduction of Legacys leverage ratio, it could impede efforts to extend or refinance the 1L revolver, 2L, and/or unsecured notes prior to their respective debtmaturities.(3)
The company continues to deliver. Bought back $187M of unsecured notes for $0.7 on the dollar in December 2017. Completed transition from an MLP to a C-corp on September 20, 2018, which provides better access to capital markets. Executed an agreement to exchange $130M of existing notes due in 2020 and 2021 for convertible notes due in 2023
(though they will likely be converted to equity well before maturity).(4) Reduced TTM Debt/EBITDA leverage ratio from 7.7 to 4.7 in Q2 2018. BCC estimates the proforma leverage ratio to be
3.96 as of Q318(5); we expect it to be
-
Risk Considerations Risks associated with execution/cost of drilling
If drilling costs are higher than expected or wells produce below expectation, EBITDA growth and debt reduction could be lower.
BCC has modeled increased drilling cost and G&A/operating costs to account for this. The company continues to deliver.
Production growth and EBITDA are at record highs (47.5MBoe / day and $284M TTM respectively) . 29 new wells have been brought on line this year and 76 new wells since the commencement of their horizontal
drilling effort. They have been and are continuing to leverage existing acreage as currency to swap for larger contiguous acreage
and improve well economics.
Risk associated with commodity pricesIf oil prices were to fall, EBITDA and overall liquidity would fall.
Oil prices could fall below $45 for up to 2 years and the thesis would remain intact (though with a lower upside).
Incumbent in this risk is the potential for a prolonged pipeline bottleneck in the Permian Basin. BCC forecasts take this into account.
Current WTI Price: $70.80/Bbl (as of 9/20/18) The commodity price is likely to be volatile in the short term, but we believe there is significantly more
upward pressure in the medium to long term. Our view is that an extended low price environment is extremely unlikely. If it were to fall for a relatively short period (
-
Summary
Smart Management and Strong Assets: Legacy weathered the down turn with very shrewd management, a determined board, and a strong asset base.
New Business Model: The company has successfully pivoted their business model from an upstream MLP to an E&P C-corp and is well positioned to execute on that model in order to
Recapitalize the business and address near term debt maturities, Expand their horizontal drilling programs on existing acreage both in the Permian and East
Texas, within operating cash flow, Significantly grow EBITDA, and Create significant value for shareholders.
Very Large Upside: The market priced the company in line with its MLP peers, many of whom went bankrupt, and overlooked it due to its legal structure and complex cap table.
Projected returns range from 3X to 13x in the next 12-48 months relative to Q318 prices. The conversion to a C-corp should induce forced buying by passive index funds, which could
facilitate rapid share price appreciation.
Low Risk: This is an extremely asymmetric opportunity with a low likelihood of long term capital impairment.
38
-
Appendix
39
-
EBITDA Growth Detail
40
-
-180000
-130000
-80000
-30000
20000
70000
120000
170000
$(8,000)
$(6,000)
$(4,000)
$(2,000)
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cum
mul
ativ
e Pr
oduc
tion
(Boe
)
mil
lions
Months
Lea #38H - Year 1 Economics
Monthly EBITDA Cumm EBITDA Net Payout (4) Cumm Boe
(1) San Andreas well data/cost are based on offset operators. (2) Actual weighted average payout ratio will depend on exact details of where and how many wells Legacy drills and how much they spend. These are incorporated in more detail in BCCs
models but are simplified for this description.(3) Source: Production data from the Texas Railroad Commission(4) This specific well is drilled into the 3rd Bone Spring formation. Most of the Bone Spring wells in the upper table on this page reflect 1st and 2nd BS. 3rD BS requires a deeper well. As such a
higher cost of $7M is assumed in this analysis.
BCC has researched all of Legacys horizontal wells drilled in the Permian basin, for which data is available (50+) as well as results of offset operators that have de-risked Legacys non-developed acreage.
The upper table on this page presents well economics for a series of geologic shelves (Bone Spring, Wolfcamp, Lower Spraberry, etc.) and illustrates the potential revenue and EBITDA contribution of each.
The table and chart below demonstrate actual performance of a specific well drilled and operated by Legacy, along with the revenue and EBITDA potential based on the same assumptions in the upper table.
41
EBITDA Growth- Single Well Economics -
Legacys capital efficiency and asset base is such that new wells can pay for themselves entirely in 1-2 years and then generate more cash flow for new investment.
Legacys capital efficiency and asset base is such that new wells can pay for themselves entirely in 1-2 years and then generate more cash flow for new investment.
1st Year Payout Ratios (EBITDA/CapEx) range from 62% to 119%(2)
Gross Net Well CapitalGross Net Year 1 Year 1 Cost Efficiency Year 1 Year 1 Year 1EUR EUR % Oil Mboe Mboe (CapEx) ($/boepd) Revenue EBITDA Payout
BS 554 416 80% 111 83.06 $6,425 28,234 $4,886 $3,992 62%Lea WC 840 630 83% 168 126 $7,000 20,278 $7,581 $6,212 89%LS 575 431 76% 115 86.25 $5,700 24,122 $4,874 $3,960 69%WC 600 450 76% 120 90 $5,700 23,117 $5,086 $4,132 72%San Andreas(1) 340 255 95% 68 51 $2,400 17,176 $3,427 $2,847 119%
Geologic Formation
Permian Well Economics
*Assumptions: Royalty Rate - 25%: Realized Oil Price - $70; Realized NG Price - $2.30; Production Taxes 7.25%; LOE/Boe - $6.50.
Month Boe BoepdCumm
BoeCumm % Oil
Monthly Revenue
Monthly EBITDA
Cumm EBITDA
Net Payout (4)
Cumm % Return
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -$7,000 -100%1 10,170 363 10,170 83% 615$ 504$ 504$ -$6,496 -93%2 33,940 1,095 44,110 84% 2,070$ 1,699$ 2,203$ -$4,797 -69%3 9,322 311 53,432 84% 569$ 467$ 2,670$ -$4,330 -62%4 30,116 971 83,548 85% 1,861$ 1,530$ 4,200$ -$2,800 -40%5 236 8 83,784 85% 15$ 12$ 4,212$ -$2,788 -40%6 246 8 84,029 85% 15$ 12$ 4,225$ -$2,775 -40%7 12,804 413 96,833 85% 789$ 649$ 4,873$ -$2,127 -30%8 16,410 547 113,243 85% 1,007$ 827$ 5,701$ -$1,299 -19%9 10,866 351 124,110 84% 664$ 545$ 6,246$ -$754 -11%10 8,711 290 132,820 84% 531$ 436$ 6,682$ -$318 -5%11 9,483 306 142,303 84% 577$ 474$ 7,156$ $156 2%12 10,092 326 152,394 83% 613$ 503$ 7,658$ $658 9%
LEA UNIT #038H (3rd Bone Spring)API: 30-025-43077 (3)
-
317
504
926
3
140 20 72
3
323
86
113
( 48 )
( 101 )
( 2 )
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
2018 EBITDA - ProductionDecline
+ NewConventionalProduction
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
+/- Change inRealized Prices
2019 EBITDA - ProductionDecline
- G&A Increase + NewConventionalProduction
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
+/- Change inRealized Prices
2020 EBITDA
mill
ions
EBITDA Bridge from 2018 to 2020
2019 2020Permian CapEx ($ millions): $320 $492New EBITDA Contribution ($ millions): $140 $323Calendar Year Payout Ratio: 44% 66%
(1) This slide is showing the payout contribution in the calendar year that the CapEx is spent, which is lower than the range of payout ratios given on the previous slide for a single well. The reason for this has to do with the timing of CapEx investment within a calendar year and the when new wells come on line. The payout ratios on the previous slide are based on 1 full year of production of a new well (regardless of when it was drilled). This slide presents CapEx in a given year against new EBITDA contribution in that year. 42
EBITDA Growth- Complete Portfolio Economics -
BCCs has used its research on capital efficiency and well performance, along with public information about Legacys drilling locations to estimate production and EBITDA growth from future CapEx investment.
BCC forecasts Legacy will invest $320M of CapEx into the Permian in 2019 (out of $400M total), and this will contribute $140M in new EBITDA in 2019, for a calendar year payout ratio of 44%.(1)
Similarly, BCC forecasts $492M in CapEx Investment in the Permian in 2020 (out of $750M total) that will contribute $323M in new EBITDA in 2020, for a calendar year payout ratio of 66%.(1)
-
48,263 57,256
86,890
541 9,218 4,798
540
17,836
19,167
( 2,900 ) ( 2,664 )( 2,128 ) ( 5,186 )
( 596 )
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2018 Production - ConventionalDecline
- Permian HzDecline
+ NewConventionalProduction
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
2019 Production - ConventionalDecline
- Permian HzDecline
- ETX Hz Decline + NewConventionalProduction
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
2020 Production
Boep
d
Production Bridge by Commodity Type from 2018 to 2020
NGL Oil Gas
48,263
57,256
86,890
541 9,218
4,798 540
17,836
19,167
( 2,900 ) ( 2,664 )
( 2,128 ) ( 5,186 )( 596 )
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2018 Production - ConventionalDecline
- Permian HzDecline
+ NewConventional
Production
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
2019 Production - ConventionalDecline
- Permian HzDecline
- ETX Hz Decline + NewConventionalProduction
+ New PermianHz Production
+ New E.TX HzProduction
2020 Production
Boep
d
Production Bridge by Location Category 2018 to 2020
Conventional Permian Hz ETX Hz
43
EBITDA Growth- Production Bridge -
Note new Permian production and East Texas production are dominant factors.
Below is a similar bridge showing production growth from 2018 to 2020.
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44
EBITDA Growth- Complete Portfolio Economics -
The well economics on the previous pages provide information on capital efficiencies that can be used to define the EBITDA contribution from each category of wells across Legacys portfolio(1).
The existing, low-decline PDP contributes a strong EBITDA foundation for growth in the Permian and East Texas. BCC estimates all CapEx investment from 2019 onward to fall within operating cash flow. Further, as Legacys portfolio matures, they can flatten CapEx investment and see cash flow continue to grow.
Every dollar of CapEx is covered by operating cash flow and is deployed efficiently enough to grow production substantially.
(1) The EBITDA values shown here represent the contribution for each category and as such do not include corporate G&A. (2) Legacys production is described in 3 categories: a) Conventional historical, producing wells (primarily conventional
vertical wells) that existed before Legacy started its horizontal drilling program; b) Permian new horizontal wells in the Permian basin, initiated in 2015. c) East Texas (E. TX.) new horizontal wells in East Texas.
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250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
(mil
lion
s)
EBITDA Contribution by Category (2)
"Conventional" EBITDA: Permian EBITDA: E. TX. EBITDA:
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
($m
illio
ns)
CapEx and Cash Flow from Operations
Total Capex: Cash Flow from Operations:
-
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CapE
x (m
illi
ons)
Reve
nue
(mil
lion
s)
Capex and Revnue by Category
"Conventional" Total Revenue: Permian Total Revenue: E. TX. Total Revenue:"Conventional" CapEx: Permian CapEx: E. TX CapEx:
45
EBITDA Growth- Model Outputs -
Future production shows a significant increase in both oil and especially natural gas by volume. However, revenue growth will be dominated by new Permian horizontal oil production.
Because of this, we believe near term CapEx investment will be weighted toward Permian horizontal development for the foreseeable future. From 2020 onward, a larger investment will be directed to East Texas to take advantage of the companys infrastructure assets there.
The low-decline historical production becomes an increasingly smaller percentage of total production over time, but enables the company to ramp quickly within cash flow.
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CapE
x (m
illio
ns)
Prod
ucti
on (B
oepd
)
Capex and Production by Category
"Conventional" Total (Boepd): Permian New Total (Boepd): E. TX. New Total (Boepd):"Conventional" CapEx: Permian CapEx: E. TX CapEx:
-
Legacy Reserves Asset Analysis
46
-
Analysis of Legacys Assets
The following is a discussion of liquidation values of Legacys assets:
1. What is the value of current production (PDP reserves)?
2. What is the amount and value of de-risked acreage available for future horizontal development (based on comp sales)?
3. What opportunity is there for acquiring and/or swapping drillable acreage?
4. What, if anything, is the value of all remaining acreage as well as other assets/ infrastructure/ etc.?
47(1) Legacys Q2 Earnings Presentation, August 2018
(1)
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$1.15B(3) ($1.053B PDP)
(1) Legacy only publishes its total N. American acreage; they do not report a breakdown by region. BCC research estimated ~250k net Permian acres as of Q417. (2) Source: Legacys Q2 Earnings Presentation, August 2018 (3) ~1.15B is the proven reserves value published in the 2017 reserves report, which was based on ~$48 oil price. Considering average spot prices YTD in 2018 of ~$67/Bbl, BCC estimates the same reserves estimate would suggest a value of ~$1.6B.
Legacys assets can be described in 4 regions Permian East Texas Mid-Continent Rocky Mountain
Total acreage ~ 538k net acres in N. America BCC estimated their Permian acreage at ~250k net acre as of Q417(1)
41k de-risked net acres identified for drilling 15k de-risked net acres in small blocks identified as drillable and
potential for swaps with adjacent locations 194k other acres all held by low-decline PDP.
East Texas ~165k net acres with 30k net acres de-risked(2)and identified for drilling; plus pipeline and other infrastructure
939 gross/ 673 net identified drilling locations(represents 23 years of inventory at current drilling rates)
Current production of 47.5 Mboepd from all regions with
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Asset Value Analysis
Liquidation Value Analysis Slide
Current Production (PDP Reserves): Slide 50De-risked Acreage (41k Permian Net Acres): Slides 51-53,56Swap Acreage (15k Permian Net Acres): Slides 54-56Other Permian Acreage (250k - 41k - 15k = 194k): Slide 56Shelby Area Acreage (13k Net Acres): Slide 57-59Other Assets (Pipeline/ Infrastructure): Slide 57Total Liquidation Value: Slide 60
49
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Value of Current Production(Liquidation value)
The table below documents BCC estimates of production from each of Legacys operating regions and applies an estimated price per production unit (i.e. either $ per Boe per day or $ per Mcfe per day) to arrive at a liquidation value for flowing production. The estimated sale price per unit of flowing production is based on comparable transaction prices for similar production profiles in each respective region.
(1) PDP sale prices are based on comparable sales for PDP collected by BCC since early 2015 50
EstimatedLiquidation
Boepd Mcfepd % Gas % Oil % NGLs Decline $/Boepd $/Mcfepd Value ($M)Permian Hz 11,881 24% 76% 34% 35,000 415.8 Permian Conventional 10,455 39% 56% 5% 11% 50,000 522.8 Piceance Basin (Rockies) 11,332 67,991 87% 13% 7% 13,800 2,300 156.4 Other Rockies 1,850 14% 86% 7% 50,000 92.5 E.TX 11,406 68,434 100% 6% 17,400 2,900 198.5 Mid-Con 600 30% 70% 4% 50,000 30.0
Total 47,524 56% 38% 6% 11% 29,794 1,416
PDP Sale Price (1)Current EstimatedEstimated Q2'18
Production
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Liquidation Value of De-risked Acreage
Legacy has publicly disclosed a total of 538k net acres in North America, but does not provide a concise breakdown of regional acreage(1)
BCC estimates the acreage breakdown as follows: Permian Acreage: ~250k net acres(2)
41k net acres identified as de-risked and targeted for horizontal development 15k net acres are identified smaller tracts in the Midland and Delaware basin with
significant value that can be swapped to create larger contiguous blocks 194k net acres represent either potential for swap or will be held for existing PDP
Rocky Mountain + Mid Continent: ~122k net acres East Texas: 165k net acres(3)
30k net acres identified for horizontal development
BCC has conducted extensive research on Permian Basin assets, looking at comparable sales by county to estimate both the value of PDP production as well as the liquidation value of the acreage.
(1) Source: Legacy 2017 Annual Report(2) This is a BCC estimate from Q42017; Legacy does not own rights to all benches in all of their acreage. (3) Source: Legacy Q417 Earnings Presentation 51
-
Liquidation Value of De-risked Acreage- Legacy Operated Permian Horizontal Acreage -
Legacy has disclosed 41k net de-risked acres currently targeted for near term horizontal drilling programs.
(1) Source: Legacy Q2 2018 earnings report 52
(1)
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Liquidation Value of De-risked Acreage- Total Legacy Permian Acreage -
The company has significant additional acreage in the Permian that it can use either for future development or as a currency to build bigger blocks of acreage.
(1) Source: Legacy 2017 Earnings Presentation 53
(1)
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Liquidation Value of De-risked Acreage- Permian Acreage Development -
Legacy has described efforts to use its vast acreage as a currency to shore up more contiguous and valuable positions through swaps and acquisitions.
Example: Howard County
Howard County Acreage in early 2018: 3513 Net AcresHoward County Acreage in early 2015: 1593 Net Acres
Adding sections allows for longer lateral drilling and improved capital efficiency
54(1) Source: Legacy Q2 2018 Earnings Report
(1)
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Liquidation Value of De-risked Acreage- Smaller Tract Acreage -
Legacys historical focus on PDP acquisitions in the Permian Basin has yielded a large portfolio of small tracts (typically
-
Liquidation Value of Existing Permian Acreage BCC has conducted an analysis to estimate the
liquidation value of the current acreage by looking at the average selling price of acreage by region.
This analysis breaks down Legacys Permian acreages as follows:
41k de-risked net acres identified for near-term development
15k net acres of smaller tracts identified for drilling or swaps
All remaining acreage
BCC researched actual transactions in the Permian from 2015-2017 in the vicinity of all of Legacys current assets. This required some assumption of the geology available in each county, both in Legacys assets as well as in the comparable sales. These should be very conservative estimates of acreage value given the oil price environment and overall sentiment in 2015-2017. Current market pricing is likely higher.
56
Gross Acres Net AcresAvg Sale
Price $/AcreAcreage Value
($millions)Central Basin Platform 11600 7800 500 4$ Delaware Basin 14300 10600 23500 249$ Midland Basin 12000 10600 21500 228$ Northwest Shelf 13600 12000 2500 30$ Total: 51500 41000 12,461$ 511$
Identified De-risked Locations (41k net acres shown as green on previous maps)
Gross Acres Net AcresAvg Sale
Price $/AcreAcreage Value
($millions)Central Basin Platform 0 0 -$ -$ Delaware Basin 23771 2746 23500 65$ Midland Basin 31785 12746 21500 274$ Northwest Shelf 0 0 -$ -$ Total: 55556 15492 21,855$ 339$
15k net acres of smaller tracts identified for drilling or swap to add value
Gross Acres Net AcresAvg Sale
Price $/AcreAcreage Value
($millions)
Total: 346000 194000 500$ 97$
Total estimated value of all acreage: 946$
All Remaining Acreage
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Liquidation Value of East Texas Assets
108k net acres in the Freestone Area (98% HBP) 17,400 net acres identified for horizontal development
12,800 net acres in the Shelby Area identified for horizontal development (99% HBP)
Substantial infrastructure that is under-utilized 567 miles of high pressure pipeline and low-pressure gathering 500 Mmcf/d processing plant (running at
-
Potential for Larger Capital Allocation Legacys Shelby area and Freestone area holdings allow
for large capital allocation, targeting longer lateral wells (~$10m allocation / well).
Currently have over 70 identified drilling locations in the Freestone Area and 174 locations in the Shelby area.
Most recent Shelby area wells generate EURs of 2.2Bcf/1,000 lateral length (e.g. a single 5k ft lateral well will generate 11 Bcf in its life, worth approximately $27.5M at $2.5/mcf)
Legacy has recently participated in wells in this area with Exxon Mobil (XTO).
Existing production data in the Freestone area suggests EURs of 2 4 BCF/ 1000-ft lateral well
Based on data from 8+ years ago More recent well and frac designs may allow for improved
and more efficient performance.
BCC believes Legacys strategy will be to drill horizontal wells in an area where horizontal development has been proven, but has not been active in quite some time. This will allow them to use newer drilling and fracking technology to leverage their existing pipeline and processing infrastructure with very low incremental Opex.
58
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Potential for Large Capital Allocation
Vintage Freestone area well results representative of Legacy Holdings
59
By Field# of Wells
Avg Lateral
Avg 12m Production Avg EUR
Avg EUR/k
1st Production
Avg Well Age (yrs)
Newest Well
Dry Wells
Current Permits
Newest Permit
Primary Operator
BALD PRAIRIE 6 6413 1,896,384 9,481,921 2,351 Nov-2006 6.6 Nov-2017 0 6 Nov-2017 O'BrienBEAR GRASS 52 4087 1,555,815 7,779,073 2,157 Feb-2006 7.4 Jun-2015 1 15 May-2018 XTODEW 4 2031 762,879 3,814,395 2,070 Feb-2000 18.2 Dec-2000 0 0 LegacyDOWDY RANCH 5 2286 1,100,559 5,502,793 3,301 May-2000 13.2 Feb-2011 1 1 Oct-2009 LegacyFARRAR 21 3945 431,220 2,131,571 644 Feb-2007 7.8 Sep-2017 0 8 Jan-2013 XTOFREESTONE E. 11 3643 751,832 3,759,159 1,221 Dec-2006 8.6 Oct-2013 1 3 Jan-2017 LinnFREESTONE W. 7 4861 501,777 2,508,887 574 Jul-2010 5.7 Nov-2017 0 0 Jan-1900 LinnNAN-SU-GAIL 39 3043 1,731,455 8,657,277 2,947 Oct-2005 10.0 Sep-2011 1 2 Feb-2011 LinnPERSONVILLE, N 5 3815 608,752 3,043,759 697 Feb-2007 9.0 Nov-2011 0 5 Feb-2010 LinnTEAGUE 32 3141 950,280 4,751,399 1,427 Apr-1998 8.4 Jan-2015 0 13 May-2018 XTOTotal 182 3723 1,227,669 6,157,960 1,921 Apr-1998 8.6 Nov-2017 4 53 May-2018
By County# of Wells
Avg Lateral
Avg 12m Production Avg EUR
Avg EUR/k
1st Production
Avg Well Age (yrs)
Newest Well
Dry Wells
Current Permits
Newest Permit
Primary Operator
FREESTONE 87 3080 1,297,909 6,489,545 2,251 Apr-1998 9.7 Jun-2015 2 22 May-2018 XTOLEON 46 4090 1,651,067 8,255,334 2,281 Feb-2006 7.5 May-2015 1 11 May-2018 XTOLIMESTONE 42 4061 512,478 2,560,226 689 Dec-2006 8.0 Nov-2017 1 14 Jan-2017 XTOROBERTSON 7 6058 1,731,074 8,655,369 2,378 Nov-2006 6.1 Nov-2017 0 6 Nov-2017 O'BrienTotal 182 3723 1,227,669 6,157,960 1,921 Apr-1998 8.6 Nov-2017 4 53 May-2018
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Legacy Asset Value
Liquidation Value AnalysisLiquidation Value
($millions)Current Production (PDP Reserves): $1,416De-risked Acreage (41k Permian Net Acres): $511Swap Acreage (15k Permian Net Acres): $339Other Permian Acreage (250k - 41k - 15k = 194k): $97Shelby Area Acreage (13k Net Acres): $32Other Assets (Pipeline/ Infrastructure): $100Total Estimated Liquidation Value of all Assets: $2,495
Net Debt (as of June 30, 2018) $1,319Asset Value Less Net Debt $1,176Net Asset Value per Share (~106.1M shares(1)) ~$11.08 / shareEquity Share Price (as of 9/20/18) $4.69 / shareNet Asset Value / Market Cap 2.4
The net value of assets are conservatively worth 2.4x the current equity value of the entire company! Suggests a conservative share price of $11+/share based on the net asset value alone.
60(1) Legacy 8k September 20, 2018 lists a share count of 106.1M shares
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Debt Summary
61
-
(1) Source: Legacy 2017 Earnings Report(2) The new 2023 Notes mandatorily convert when the common shares trade above $6 for 20 days out of any 30 day period. Legacy's common equity has closed above $6 on 40 of the
120 trading days since the end of Q1'18.(3) OCC compliance requires Net Debt to EBITDA ratio below 4X. This is likely what will be required to refinance or extend the senior 1L revolver; Refinancing the 2L term loan and
unsecured notes will likely require Debt/EBITDA ~3X; Note: BCC estimates proforma leverage ratio at Q3E18 is 3.96, giving effect to conversion of the 2023 notes.
Debt Summary
62
Below is a summary of Legacys current debt profile (as of 9/20/18). Management has publicly stated a primary corporate objectives as follows:
Evaluate and opportunistically pursue alternatives to materially reduce our outstanding debt and extend our near term maturity debt (1)
Critical to that effort is to drive down the leverage ratio to enable refinancing of existing debt. They have been achieving this 1) by pivoting their business model and 2) investing all operating cash flow into growing EBITDA sufficient to support the debt.
OCC Compliance Target: 4X(3)
(2)
As Legacy has pivoted their business. The next step is address debt maturities and grow substantially.
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Comparable Valuations
63
-
Comparable Valuations
These plots show forward 12 month and trailing 12 month EV / EBITDA multiples for peer companies operating in the Permian Basin(1)
We believe most of the companies in the E&P space have been unloved for the past few years, and LGCYs valuation in particular has been hampered by structural and cyclical inefficiencies in the market, as well as a general misunderstanding of its business model, assets and growth plans.
64(1) Source: Bloomberg as of 9/14/18
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
Forward EV / EBITDA Multiple for Legacy Peers(F12 @ Q2E 2018)
[email protected]'18 EV/EBITDA Average F12 EV/EBITDA - 6.26
Min 5.50 Max 13.58 Mean 9.53 Median 10.40 St. Dev 2.74 LGCY 6.40
@Q2E'18Trailing EV/ EBITDA
Min 3.73 Max 9.93 Mean 6.26 Median 6.45 St. Dev 1.87 LGCY 4.53
Forward EV/ [email protected]'18
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Disclaimers
This material contains data and information that were obtained from published sources believed to be reliable and which is presented for illustrative purposes only. None of the data or information presented herein from third party sources is warranted as to its accuracy or completeness. Further, due to the ever-changing nature of markets, the deductions, interrelationships, and conclusions drawn from historical data may not hold true in the future.
The discussion of return potential from an investment in Legacy Reserves, Inc or any other mentioned security is based on Baines Creek Capitals internal projections for appreciation potential and is presented to show upside appreciation potential based on Baines Creek Capitals estimates only. An investment in any public or private entity is subject to significant risks and could realize losses. The discussion of return potential and the other forward-looking statements contained herein generally will not be updated in future.
PAST PERFORMANCE AND PERFORMANCE PROJECTIONS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
65
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Confidential/Proprietary Information
This presentation and the information contained in it are the exclusive property of Baines Creek Capital, LLC. and are protected by one or more of patent, trade secret, trademark, copyright and other laws. Any reproduction, distribution, or modification of any of the content on this presentation or any of the information contained in it, in any manner without the express written permission of Baines Creek Capital, LLC. is strictly prohibited.
Baines Creek Capital, LLC and their associated logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Baines Creek Capital, LLC., and all rights are expressly reserved.
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