eap draft investment plan 20180413 v3jlb · 4/17/2018  · of ukraine (novaya guta), km 87.9 –km...

40
DRAFT DRAFT DRAF DRAFT DRAFT Eastern Partnership Transport Investment Plan Brussels, April 17, 2018

Upload: others

Post on 22-Oct-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Eastern PartnershipTransport Investment Plan Brussels, April 17, 2018

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Substantial investment by IFIs already made on the core TEN-T network in EaP region

    Some countries are nearing completion of their networks (Azerbaijan and Georgia) but others will need long-term investment plans

    To expedite the completion of the TEN-T core network the EC has requested an investment framework with priority activities to 2020 and 2030

    The purpose of the exercise is to align around a common set of priorities but also to resource high quality preparation to improve readiness for implementation

    Investment priorities will also include facilities to improve the performance of the network including border crossings, multi-modal facilities and road safety

    Background

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    The EaP core network consists of about 13,600 km of road, 13,200 km of rail, 12 airports and 13 ports

    About 240 projects with an estimated value of Euro 47 billion have been reviewed to provide section specific information on cost estimates, traffic and condition etc.

    Government and IFI financial data on sector expenditures, current commitments and forecast capital investment budgets have been collected

    Projects have also been assessed according to their strategic relevance, policy criteria and readiness

    Prioritization

    Multimodal transport model updated to evaluate the network level priorities and to assess project level viability

    The team has visited each country to discuss investment priorities in October/November, 2017 and followed up with our country office staff on key questions. This is the first full consultation on the main findings.

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Prioritization Process

    • Linear projects are assessed using an updated multi-modal transport model to verify the economic viability of network priorities at a strategic level for EaP countries

    Project assessments

    • Preparation of draft priority list: Combines both quick wins and long-term projects that fit in the funding envelope

    Project identification

    • Previously identified projects are assessed in light of information provided by IFIs and the relevant national authorities

    • Project-level proposals are checked for strategic fit, based on network priorities, covering the proposals’ economic, financial, social and environmental aspects.

    • Preparation of funding envelops for the period 2018-2030: Includes potential sources of funding and an assessment of implementation capacity

    Funding analysis

    • Potential priorities not identified by the countries but emerging from the transport model

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Transport Model

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Road: 13,597 kmAir: 12 airports

    TEN-T Network

    Rail: 13,216 kmSea: 13 ports

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    TEN-T Network: Road Conditions and Traffic Levels

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    TEN-T Network: Railway Status and Freight Volume

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    TEN-T Network: IWW/Port Freight Volumes and Air Traffic

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Implementation and Funding Capacity (2020 horizon)Consideration Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine

    FISCAL SPACEheadroom @ 60% D:GDP

    in 2020 [€m]228 11,581 3,703 2,923 1,771 -

    IMPLEMENTATION

    Historical IFI disbursement ratios 9.1% 9.3% 13.5% 8.3% 4.0% 7.2%

    Projected IFI disbursements

    by 2020 [€m]215 643 95 458 76 409

    BUDGET SPACEAvg. past transport spending

    as % GDP in 20170.76% 0.80% 0.35% 2.85% 0.27% .81%

    3 yr. average capex spend [€m] 75 280 163 384 19 750

    Est. or stated budget space up

    through 2020 [€m]228 853 491 4,337 57 2,997

    BEST ESTIMATE [€m] 215 853 491 458 76 409

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Implementation and Funding Capacity (2030 horizon)Consideration Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine

    FISCAL SPACEheadroom @ 60% D:GDP

    in 2030 [€m] 1,394 24,097 7,907 6,346 1,690 17,633

    IMPLEMENTATION

    Historical IFI disbursement ratios 9.1% 9.3% 13.5% 8.3% 4.0% 7.2%

    Projected IFI disbursements by 2030 [€m] 1,207 3,614 534 2,572 430 2,301

    BUDGET SPACEAvg. past transport spending

    as % GDP in 2017 0.76% 0.80% 0.35% 2.85% 0.27% .81%

    Est. or stated budget space up through 2030 [€m] 1,026 3,847 2,167 16,690 272 13,528

    BEST ESTIMATE [€m] 1,207 3,847 2,167 2,572 430 2,301

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Benchmarks

    DB Indicator (2018) EaPC Average Rank /190

    Dealing with construction permits 84

    Trading across borders 64

    Enforcing contracts 43

    Resolving insolvency 81

    WGI Indicator (2016) EaPC Average Score /100

    Control of corruption 34.3

    Government effectiveness 44.5

    Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism

    28.4

    Procuring Infrastructure PPPs (2018) EaPC Average Score /100

    Preparation of PPPs 50.8

    Procurement of PPPs 57.3

    PPP contract management 38

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Armenia

    AM/ROAD/3: M7 Vanadzor - Gyumri - Akhurik, Vanadzor-Guimri section (not TEN-T)Finance: Potential IFIsInvestment: €50.8mEIRR: 6%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    AM/ROAD/2: North-South Road Corridor: Gyumri-Bavra (Tranche 5)Finance: EIB consideringInvestment: €41mEIRR: 8%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    BLACK SPOTSSyunik Region (2017)Accidents: 169Fatalities: 22Injuries: 247

    Kapan (2017)Accidents: 70Fatalities: 6Injuries: 85

    Meghri (2017)Accidents: 15Fatalities: 1Injuries: 20

    Goris (2017)Accidents: 51Fatalities: 4Injuries: 81

    Sisian (2017)Accidents: 33Fatalities: 11Injuries: 61

    Syunik section of M2/H45 (southern road rehabilitation) Finance: Potential IFIsInvestment: €50m - €200m (potential for segmentation of rehabilitation work)EIRR: 30%+ (similar projects used as a benchmark)

    ROAD LONG-TERM

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Trade with Russia

    Traffic to TbilisiCross-borderConnectivity

    IN FO

    CUS

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Armenia: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation :• Ongoing works on two main parts of TEN-T• Possible need to rethink the TEN-T and include the M7 road

    to create a N-S corridor compatible with Georgian network• Weak coordination and project implementation capacity• Urgent need for project prioritization

    Priorities for 2020• Completion of on-going works• Developing design documents for identified priorities, and• Developing prioritized transport network

    Key funding aspects:• Decreasing year on year spending on transport• Strong fiscal constraints – IFIs have indicated no new lending

    prior to 2020• Government spending on CAPEX is small -6-10% of total

    budget• Key priorities on core TEN-T need high capex

    Priorities to 2030:• Limited program to 2030 on core network• Need to refocus effort on non-core network• Reassess viability of some proposed projects i.e. different

    design standards

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT

    SPENDING SPACE

    €0.5bn€1.2bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Azerbaijan

    AZ/RAIL/1: East-West railways: remaining signaling, telecommunications and electrificationFinance: Potential IFIsInvestment: €328mEIRR: 11.7%

    RAIL LONG-TERM

    AZ/LC/1: Alyat Free Trade Zone and logistics centerFinance: PPPInvestment: €410mEIRR: 5.3% (FS ongoing)

    LOGISTICS LONG-TERM

    AZ/LC/2: Creation of Logistics CentersFinance: PPPInvestment: €369mEIRR: 20%

    LOGISTICS LONG-TERM

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Logistics Centers

    IN FO

    CUS

    Create an enabling environment for transit trade• Strengthen the role of the country as a regional

    logistics and trade hub

    • Complete the ongoing infrastructure investments along the east-west and north-south corridors

    • Improve logistics servicesHigher value addition to transit trade• Increase the role of Baku as a regional trade

    center

    • Established export-orientated productions• Develop logistics centersIncentives for logistics and trade• Increase private sector participation in logistics

    Targets

    Complete ongoing investments by 2021/22• Roads and railways along the Core TEN-T network Focus on corridor management and logistics• Improve Logistics Performance Index (LPI)

    score from 125 to 30 by 2020

    • Focus upon corridor management• Develop Baku’s role as a regional trade center• Improve intermodal terminals• Develop ICT systems to link transport system

    operators and improve the tracking of freight

    • Harmonizing national laws and regulations with those of the EU

    • Establish Alyat as a modern green port with a free-trade zone

    • Harmonize regulations and laws with EU standards

    • Create incentives for private sector participation in logistics and corridor management/operations

    Focus on vocational training

    Priorities in Azerbaijan

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Azerbaijan: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation aspects:• Advanced level of implementation of core and

    comprehensive TEN-T network• Role of MoT is currently being defined; currently

    responsibility on strategy and priorities is split between agencies

    Priorities for 2020• Focus on improving railways efficiency and implementation of

    ongoing projects• Focus on logistics activities (national priority to reach top 30

    LPI by 2020, from 125)

    Key funding aspects:• Focus on attracting private sector: law on PPP under

    preparation• Low debt levels• Substantial IFI portfolio, largest in EaP region• Going forward more constraints on budget due to falling oil

    prices.

    Priorities for 2030:• Focus on attracting private sector participation in logistics

    activities

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT

    SPENDING SPACE

    €2bn€3.8bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Belarus: Railways

    BY/RAIL/2: Electrification of Zhlobin - Kalinkovichi - Barbarov(143km) Railway TrackFinance: EIB/EBRD Investment: €79.5mEIRR: 13%

    RAIL LONG-TERM

    BY/RAIL/1: Modernization of the Contact Network at Zhdanovichi-Molodechno Section of Minsk RegionFinance: EIB/EBRD Investment: €35.3mEIRR: 13%

    RAIL QUICK WIN

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Belarus: Roads

    BY/ROAD/3: Road M-7/ E 28 Minsk – Oshmyany – Border of the Republic of Lithuania (Kamenny Log), km 57.7 – km 148.752Finance: Possible EIBInvestment: €82mEIRR: 15.6%

    ROAD

    BY/ROAD/10: ITS for M-1 / E30 on sections Brest -Baranowichi and Minsk - the Border of Russian Federation Finance: App. for NDPTL GrantInvestment: €10.4mEIRR: 32.3%

    ROAD QUICK WIN

    BY/ROAD/11: Reconstruction of the Road Border Crossing Point "Kamenny Log" (Lithuania - Belarus) Finance: Possible EIBInvestment: €23.8mEIRR: 13.7%

    ROAD QUICK WIN

    LONG-TERM

    BY/ROAD/6 & 7: Sections of M-10 Border of Russian Federation (Selische) – Gomel – Kobrin (km 0-27, km 193.2-320.3)Finance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €305mEIRR: 9.5%

    ROAD LONG-TERMBY/ROAD/4: Road M-10 Border of Russian Federation (Selische) – Gomel – Kobrin, km 109.9 – km 195.15Finance: PPP (EBRD Structuring)Investment: €207.5mEIRR: 12%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    BY/ROAD/9: Pedestrian crossings on M-1Finance: App. for NDPTL GrantInvestment: €0.3mEIRR: 27.5%

    ROAD QUICK WIN

    BY/ROAD/5: M-8/E 95 Border of Russian Federation (Ezerische) – Vitebsk – Gomel – Border of Ukraine (Novaya Guta), km 87.9 – km 151.0Finance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €139.4mEIRR: 10.1%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    BY/ROAD/2 & 8: Road R-20 Vitebsk - Polotsk - Border of LatviaFinance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €155.8mEIRR: 23%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

  • DRAF

    TDRAF

    TDRAF

    T

    DRAF

    T

    DRAF

    T

    Inland Waterways

    BY/IWW/1: Restoration of the International Waterway E40 in Belarus

    The proposed E40 water way will connect the Baltic and Black seas through the Vistula in Poland, the Pripyat in

    Belarus and the Dnieper in Ukraine. The project will require an extensive feasibility study but improvement of

    the Pripyat in Belarus has not been prioritized in this exercise because:

    • Traffic volumes are low and there is limited potential for diversion (but there is limited data)• The route is environmentally sensitive and would require a new canal to be built in Poland and investments

    in Ukraine on the Dnieper

    • There are alternative modes of transport on this route including a rail line and a road link (GO highway)

    IN FO

    CUS

    Kyiv Lock and Pool Above• Lock at high risk of failure• Optimum traffic flow is hindered

    Kaniv Lock and Pool Above• Individual systems present a

    medium risk of failure• Optimum traffic flow is hindered

    Kremenchuk Lock and Pool Above• Lock at high risk of failure• Optimum traffic flow is hindered

    Kamenskye Lock and Pool Above• Lock at high risk of failure• River not navigable

    Zaporijjya Lock and Pool Above• Lock at high risk of failure• Optimum traffic flow is hindered

    Kahovka Lock and Pool Above• Lock at high risk of failure• Optimum traffic flow is hindered

    River/lock assessment: 2017 Royal HaskoningDHV/EBRD Sustainable Transport TA Programme

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Belarus: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation aspects:• Advanced level of implementation of TEN-T network• Most key priorities have preparatory work• Good approaches to maintenance of existing assets• Good coordination from relevant authorities

    Priorities for 2020:• Large investments in logistics centers: these are under-

    utilized, need to improve efficiency (TA)• Implement existing pipeline of projects

    Key funding aspects:• Significant road fund with good spending on maintenance• Low budget spending on transport although no visibility of

    railway spending• No major lending constraints

    Priorities for 2030:• Undertake comprehensive FS for waterways corridor• Work on attracting PPP for infrastructure finance

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT

    SPENDING SPACE

    €1.2bn€2.2bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Georgia: Logistics

    GE/LC/1: Tbilisi Kumisi Logistic CentreFinance: EIB ProposedInvestment: €78.3mEIRR: 21%

    LOGISTICS LONG-TERM

    GE/LC/2: Logistic Center in KutaisiFinance: ADB ProposedInvestment: €61.5mEIRR: 27%

    LOGISTICS LONG-TERM

    GE/LC/3: Cargo Terminal in Kutaisi AirportFinance: Likely PPPInvestment: €61.5mEIRR: 20%

    LOGISTICS LONG-TERM

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    ROADGE/ROAD/8: Sadakhlo Friendship BridgeFinance: EBRDInvestment: €5.7mEIRR: 15%

    QUICK WIN

    Priority Projects in Georgia: Roads

    GE/ROAD/5: Rehabilitation of Grigoleti – Poti RoadFinance: EIB ProposedInvestment: €123mEIRR: 10%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    GE/ROAD/6: Tbilisi BypassFinance: ADB ProposedInvestment: €287mEIRR: 18%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    GE/ROAD/1: East-West Highway: Section Chumateleti -Argveta of E60 Finance: EIB/EBRD/WB/JICAInvestment: €779mEIRR: 13.6%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    GE/ROAD/2: Rustavi - Red Bridge HighwayFinance: EIB ProposedInvestment: €102.5mEIRR: 16.2

    ROAD LONG-TERMGE/ROAD/3: Construction of new road Batumi Bypass - Sarpi(Border of Turkey)Finance: EIB/EBRD/WB/JICAInvestment: €90.2mEIRR: 18%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    GE/ROAD/4: Rehabilitation of Grigoleti – CholoqiFinance: EIBInvestment: €73.8mEIRR: 12.3%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    GE/ROAD/7: Sadakhlo-AlgetiFinance: EIBInvestment: €73.8mEIRR: 15.2%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Logistics Centers

    Like Azerbaijan, Georgia is at an advanced stage of TEN-T implementation.Priorities in Georgia• Promotion of multi-modality (rail services are at a

    disadvantage when compared with road transport)• Optimization logistics network and ensure ICT

    integration• Liberalization of rail transport• Focus on vocational trainingChallenges: • Ports lacks reliability• Road border-crossing points are bottlenecks• Port costs are unreasonably high

    IN FO

    CUS

  • DRAF

    TDRAF

    TDRAF

    T

    DRAF

    T

    DRAF

    T

    Georgia: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation aspects:• Advanced level of implementation of TEN-T network

    • Most of key priorities have preparatory work

    • Very good coordination from relevant authorities

    Priorities for 2020:• Completion of EW highway

    • Future activities to focus on improved logistics and attracting

    private sector

    Key funding aspects:• Government forecast a large increase in transport spending to

    11% of GDP??

    • A lot of resources to accommodate E-W highway

    • Debt levels good and no major constraints on fiscal space

    Priorities for 2030:• Substantial 2030 program, needs good preparation

    • Focus on logistics will require good cooperation with private

    sector

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNTSPENDING SPACE€2.4bn€2.5bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Moldova: Roads and Ports

    ML/ROAD/4: Chisinau Ring Highway (section 2-4)Finance: IFIsInvestment: €41mEIRR: 16.6%

    ROADS LONG-TERM

    Implementation of Weight in Motion Finance: IFIs/National Budget Investment: €16.4mEIRR: 59.5%

    ROADS QUICK WINML/ROAD/2: M-14 - Section Balti - Criva (rehabilitation)Finance: IFIsInvestment: €128.7mEIRR: 7.6%

    ROADS LONG-TERM

    ML/ROAD/3: M-21 Chisinau - Dubasari - Goianul Nou - Ukrainian Border (rehabilitation)Finance: IFIsInvestment: €47.6mEIRR: 9.7%

    ROADS LONG-TERM

    ML/ROAD/6: M14 Chisinau – Kuciurgan (UA)Finance: IFIsInvestment: €66.4mEIRR: 14%

    ROADS LONG-TERM

    ML/PORT/1: Giurgiulesti Port Infrastructure Finance: IFIs/National Budget Investment: €3.3mEIRR: 11.2%

    PORT QUICK WIN

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Southern Railways

    IN FO

    CUS

    Giurgiulesti – Abaclia Rail Link

    • Not yet part of the TEN-T network, despite having the heaviest flow of rail traffic in Moldova at 5,018 ton/day

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Moldova: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation aspects:• Most on-going investment and preparation work not on the

    core TEN-T network• There is a need to rethink the TEN-T network• Poor implementation performance is key constraint to new

    investment

    Priorities for 2020:• Key priority for 2020 is a focus on project preparation and

    project implementation• Currently developments on links to Transnistria may play a

    key role in project prioritization going forward

    Key funding aspects:• Lowest disbursement ration in EaP of IFI loans• Lowest spending on transport in the EaP region• Deteriorating fiscal situation and stagnating

    Priorities to 2030:• Rethink prioritization of rail network related to core

    network• Start implementation of routes to the North and East to

    connect with Ukraine

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNTSPENDING SPACE€0.4bn€0.4bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Ukraine: Rail, IWW, Ports and Airports

    UKR/IWW/1: Dnipro Locks Reconstruction as part of the Dnipro Development InitiativeFinance: Possible EIBInvestment: €57.4mEIRR: 47%

    IWW QUICK WIN

    UKR/PORT/1 & 3: Dredging/Berth Reconstruction in Yuzhniy PortFinance: National Budget/PPP Investment: €284.5mEIRR: 4% (further analysis needed)

    PORT LONG-TERM

    UKR/RAIL/4: Increase of the Train Handling Capacity within Section Hrebinka – PoltavaFinance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €24.6mEIRR: 30%

    RAIL LONG-TERM

    UKR/RAIL/3: Zhytomyr - Vapnyarka rail lineFinance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €205mEIRR: 22%

    RAIL LONG-TERM

    Second Runway at Odessa Airport Finance: Likely IFIs Investment: €98.4mEIRR: 36%

    AIR LONG-TERM

    UKR/RAIL/2: Implementation of Railway Service Mukachevo – Chop –Zahony (Hungary)/Chierna-nad-Tisoj (Slovakia)Finance: Possible EIBInvestment: €13.3mEIRR: 47%

    RAIL QUICK WIN

    UKR/PORT/3: Berth Reconstruction in Chernomorsk Port Finance: PPP Investment: €69.7mEIRR: 9%

    PORT LONG-TERM

    UKR/RAIL/1: Modernization of the Railway Gauge 1435 mm on the Section Kovel – Yagodyn – State Border with Further ElectrificationFinance: Possible EIBInvestment: €41mEIRR: 19%

    RAIL QUICK WIN

    UKR/PORT/4: Improve railway access to Odessa and Mykolaiv PortsFinance: Likely IFIsInvestment: €16.4mEIRR: 11.6%

    PORT QUICK WIN

    UKR/RAIL/5: Electrification of the Railway Section Berdychiv – Korosten – BerezhestFinance: Discussions with EIBInvestment: €135.4mEIRR: 16%

    RAIL LONG-TERM

    UKR/PORT/2: Construction of Berth No. 8 of Mykolaiv Sea PortFinance: EIBInvestment: €9mEIRR: 10%

    PORT QUICK WIN

    UKR/PORT/1: Yuzhny State Stevedoring Company ConcessionFinance: PPP

    PORT QUICK WINUKR/PORT/3: Chornomorsk State Stevedoring Company ConcessionFinance: PPP

    PORT QUICK WIN

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Priority Projects in Ukraine: Road

    Implementation of E-tolling, weight in motion and automatic speed enforcementFinance: Likely PPP Investment: €41mEIRR: 118.9%

    ROAD QUICK WIN

    UKR/ROAD/9: M-03 Chutove – KharkivFinance: WB Investment: €191.1mEIRR: 16.5%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    UKR/ROAD/5: H-02 Lviv – TernopilFinance: Potential PPP Investment: €133m (assuming rehabilitation)EIRR: 14%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

    UKR/ROAD/4: H-11 Dnipro – MykolaivFinance: IFIsInvestment: €321m (assuming rehabilitation)EIRR: 8.5%

    ROAD LONG-TERM

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Go Highway

    IN FO

    CUS

    Currently the GO highway serves mainly local traffic. While the highway is well-used, only 10 trucks per day traverse the entire road from Odessa to Krakovets. The optimum strategy for the improvement of this highway will probably be a combination of capacity expansion on key parts of the route, some have been prioritized here, but also the rehabilitation of the existing road where returns will be higher. An on-going feasibility study will identify the exact strategy.

    Capacity Improvement to Category 1 • EIRR: 2.4%Rehabilitation of Existing Road• EIRR: 12%

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Ukraine: Key Financing and Implementation Aspects

    Key implementation aspects:• Good level of completion of core TEN-T road network (main

    T) – maintenance serious concern• Rail network generally better managed• Poor absorptive capacity• Government priorities change regularly, priorities not

    technically informed, master Plan to start soon

    Priorities for 2020:• Focus on implementation of 2020 priorities – approx. Eur 1.8

    billion• Address poor implementation performance – undisbursed

    balances exceed Euro 1 Billion• Increase spending on project preparation and

    implementation• Implement network efficiency quick wins• To prepare and approve the transport master plan

    Key funding aspects:• Currently constrained fiscal space but projected to improve• Road fund to begin in 2018 will bring additional resources to

    the road sector• Second lowest disbursement ratio of IFI loans in EaP region• Projecting big increase in transport budget for 2018 and

    doubling of CAPEX

    Priorities for 2030:• Increase efforts to attract private sector capital• Focus on linking Odessa with Europe – through GO Highway• Review design standards to insure cost effective use of

    resources

    TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT

    SPENDING SPACE €2.7bn€2.3bn

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    ITS for M-1 / E30

    Network efficiency

    TOW

    ARDS

    BET

    TER

    Training: Private operators rate the reliability of journey times as paramount. Professional logistics operators are the key.

    Tolling systems: Provide much needed revenue to the sector, future revenues can be securitized to raise private finance for investments

    Automatic speed enforcement: Cutting speed saves lives

    Weight control systems: Automated systems can increase revenues, limit corruption and protect key infrastructure assets

    Intelligent highways: provide information to manage journey times to avoid congestion, limit border crossing times, provide emergency response, link to multi-modal systems

    Weight in Motion

    E-tolling and automatic speed enforcement

    • Very large economic returns

    • Initial investments are relatively modest

    • Private sector can finance investments and subsequent operations

    • Payback periods are often between 1 and 5 years infrastructure

    • Possibility to generate revenues

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Absorptive capacity

    TOW

    ARDS

    BET

    TER

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova,Republic of

    Ukraine

    Ave

    rage

    Dis

    burs

    emen

    t Rat

    io

    DISBURSEMENT RATIOS BY IFIS IN EAPCOUNTRIES

    EBRD EIB WB ADB Wgt. Avg.

    Key issues include:• Inadequate project preparation• Weak procurement systems• Weak local industry• Lack of transparence• Corruption

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Private Sector

    Participation

    TOW

    ARDS

    BET

    TER

    - 1 2 3 4

    ArmeniaAzerbaijan

    BelarusGeorgia

    Republic of MoldovaUkraine

    Number of PPP Transactions by Country and Sector Since Yr. 2000

    RoadsRailwaysPortsAirports

    Airports4

    Ports5

    Railways2

    Roads0

    Treatment plant

    1

    Water Utility

    7

    Electricity48

    ICT17

    Natural Gas14

    # of PPP Transactions in EAP countries since yr. 2000

    Airports409

    Ports675

    Railways579

    Roads-

    Treatment …

    Water Utility

    637 Electricity

    4,772

    ICT17,427

    Natural Gas

    3,448

    US$ mil. PPP Transactions in EAP countries since yr. 2000

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Maintenance

    TOW

    ARDS

    BET

    TER

    This presentation focuses on prioritization of new investments but the first priority should always be on the maintenance of existing assets

    • Investment in maintenance will always deliver the highest economic returns – for every $ spent on maintenance at least $3 will be saved in vehicle operating costs

    • Countries should invest in good asset management systems and regular data collection to measure condition of infrastructure assets

    • Good maintenance will save lives, reduce emissions and improve the public and investor perception of the transport system

  • DRAFTDR

    AFTDRAF

    T

    DRAFT

    DRAFT

    Project Preparation

    TOW

    ARDS

    BET

    TER

    The key recommendation emerging from this study is that more attention and resources should be given to high quality project preparation and implementation

    The results from this work suggest that there is weak pipeline of projects and implementation of existing projects is slow

    We would recommend setting up a multi-agency fund to finance this work with an agreed level of counterpart funding from government.

    The fund would finance preparation and implementation activities associated with the agreed investment plan contained in this document. Specifically it would:• Finance preparation of FS, detailed engineering, social and environmental work and bidding

    documents• Finance support to implementing agencies to effectively manage the preparation process• Finance support to implementing agencies to effectively implement the projects

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine

    Number of Identified Feasibility Studies

  • Ongoing analysis of BCP’s

    Verification of key model parameters and

    deeper model assessments

    No data on large bilaterals including China and Russia

    Additional prioritization processes in particular

    for Ukraine

    Additional railways data needed for Ukraine and

    BelarusFurther consultation with the countries

    Outstanding issues

  • Thank you!