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Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail Is Giving Voters More Options a Good Idea? Charles Stewart III MIT

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Page 1: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail

Is Giving Voters More Options a Good Idea?

Charles Stewart IIIMIT

Page 2: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Election year

Election Day

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement, various years

Page 3: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Election year

Election Day

Absentee/mail

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement, various years

Page 4: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Election year

Early in-person

Absentee/mail

Election Day

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement, various years

Page 5: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Flavors of Pre-Election Day Voting

• Traditional classifications

– Absentee voting• Excuse required

• No-excuse

– Permanent

– Early voting• How many sites?

• How many days?

Page 6: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Flavors of Pre-Election Day Voting

• Traditional classifications

– Absentee voting• Excuse required

• No-excuse

– Permanent

– Early voting• How many sites?

• How many days?

• New complications

– Vote-by-mail

– Early voting by other means

– Vote centers

Page 7: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Source: http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx

6 28 3 14

Page 8: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Source: http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx

Permanent absentee voting (8)

6 28 3 14

Page 9: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Source: http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/about/news-room/news/2015/01/15/use-of-vote-centers-on-the-rise-nationwide

Page 10: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

MENH

VT

MARICTNY

NJPA

OHINIL

MI

WI

MN

IA

MO

ND

SDNE

KS

KEMD

DCVA

WV

NC

SCGAFL

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

LAOK

TX

MT

ID

WY

CO

NM

AZ

UT

NV

WA

OR

CA

AKHI

2000

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

Page 11: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

ME

NH

VT

MARI

CTNYNJPA

OHIN

IL

MI

WINM

IA

MO

ND

SD

NE

KS

DEMD

DC

VA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

KY

TN

ALMS

AR

LA

OK

TX

MT

ID

WY

CONM

AZ

UT

NV

WA

OR

CA

AK

HI

2004

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

Page 12: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

AL

AK

AZ

ARCA

CO

CTDE

FL

GA

HI

IDIL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MDMA

MI

MNMS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NHNJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SCSD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

2008

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

Page 13: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

AK

AZ

ARCA

CO

CCT

DE

DC

FL

GA

HI

IDIL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN MSMO

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NM

NY

NCND

OH

OK

OR

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WVWI

WY

2012

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

Page 14: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

0

1 0

1

01Mail

Election Day

Early

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CTDE

DC

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MSMO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NCND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

TN

TXUT

VT

VA

WA

WVWI

WY

2014

Source: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

Page 15: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Who Uses Early and Absentee Voting?

Page 16: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Who Uses Early and Absentee Voting?Party

Election Day Early In-Person Absentee

Democrat 49.6% 26.5% 23.8%

Republican 53.1% 23.8% 23.1%

Independent 52.8% 23.2% 24.0%

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2012

Note: Excludes “traditional” states and all-mail states

Page 17: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Who Uses Early and Absentee Voting?Interest in News/Public Affairs

Election Day Early In-Person Absentee

Most of the time 49.2% 27.0% 23.7%

Some of the time 55.0% 22.3% 22.8%

Only now and then 57.9% 18.7% 23.4%

Hardly at all 58.9% 16.1% 25.1%

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2012

Note: Excludes “traditional” states and all-mail states

Page 18: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Who Uses Early and Absentee Voting?Race

Election Day Early In-Person Absentee

White 53.4% 23.1% 23.5%

Black 46.8% 37.8% 15.4%

Hispanic 47.4% 24.1% 28.5%

All other 51.7% 20.0% 28.4%

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2012

Note: Excludes “traditional” states and all-mail states

Page 19: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Policy Considerations

• Convenience

– Societal expectations

• Security

• Costs

• Quality election administration

• Equity

Page 20: Early Voting, Absentee Voting, and Voting by Mail · 2015-08-10 · 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Election year Election Day Absentee/mail Source:

Some Resources

• NCSL (Google “NCSL Early Voting”)

• Early Voting Information Center (EVIC) @ Reed College: earlyvoting.net

• E-mail me: [email protected]