early warning and response analysis october 2012 · 2020. 4. 30. · amhara, the eastern half of...
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Released on October 12, 2012
Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA
This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected]
Early Warning and Response Analysis October 2012
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
2 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Contents
Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................... 3
Early Warning and Response Summary for October 2012 ................................................................................ 4
Weather Conditions........................................................................................................................................... 5
Food Markets ..................................................................................................................................................... 6
Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 8
Response ......................................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
3 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
ACRONYMS:
CPI: Consumer Price Index
CSA: Central Statistical Agency
DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food
Security Sector:
EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research
Institute
ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health
GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition
HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund
IMC: International Medical Corps
MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition
NMA: National Meteorological Agency
OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program
PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women
SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition
TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit
TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food
TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program
WFP: World Food Programme
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
4 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY
During the coming month of October 2012, due to the southward retreat of rain producing
systems, southern and southeastern parts of the country will receive rainfall gradually. In
addition, the western and southwestern parts of the country will continue to receive rainfall.
The dry and windy weather conditions will prevail over northern, northeastern and central parts
of the country and occurrence of frost is likely over some highlands of the country. Thus,
farmers are advised to take appropriate measures to deal with the identified adverse weather
condition.
Near normal rainfall is expected over western and southern Oromiya, western Amhara,
Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, SNNPR and southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia. Thus, the
expected rainfall situation favors crops that have not attained their maturity stage and the late
sown crops in some areas. Moreover, it would also favor the availability of pasture and drinking
water over pastoral areas of south and southeastern parts of the country.
Between the months of August and September 2012, food prices increased at a similar rate to the
5 year average. In other words, the rate of increase was similar to seasonal expectations. The
level of prices remains very high when compared with the 5 year average.
Between the months of August to September 2012, cereal prices increased at a faster rate than
the five year average. In other words, the rate of increase was faster than seasonal expectations
(by approximately 2%). The level of prices remains very high when compared with the 5 year
average.
Since the very high increase in the price of cereals in Gambella between August and September
2012 follows strong price increases in previous months and an upward trend since November
2011, the purchasing power of consumers in this region is likely to have been significantly
affected.
TFP admissions at national level decreased slightly by 6.9 percent in August from July levels
maintaining a decrease in three months consecutively while regional level admissions varied.
TFP admissions are projected to either remain relatively stable at August levels or continue to
decrease for the September to November period.
As of the 4th October 2012, the relief and dispatch status for the sixth round stood at 62%
complete.
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
5 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
WEATHER CONDITIONS
September 2012 weather conditions
Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of
September 2012
Source: NMA
During the month of September 2012, pocket
areas of western Oromiya received rainfall greater
than 400mm. Parts of western Oromiya
experienced falls ranging from 300 – 400 mm.
Some areas of central, a few areas of northwestern
Amhara, the eastern half of Benishangul Gumuz,
parts of western Oromiya, parts of northwestern
SNNPR, the southeastern tip of Gambella and
central Tigray exhibited falls ranging from 200 –
300 mm. Most parts of eastern and central
Oromiya, most parts of the western half of
Amhara, the western half of Benishangul Gumuz,
most parts of Gambela, parts of central Tigray and
most parts of SNNPR received 100 – 200 mm.
Eastern, western and South Tigray, parts of
eastern Amhara, the southern tip of Afar, parts of
southern Oromiya, parts of southern and western
Somali experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100
mm. A Few areas of eastern Amhara, most parts
of the western half of Afar, parts of northern and
central Somaliand the southeastern tip of southern
Oromiya, exhibited 25 - 50 mm of rainfall. Most
parts of the eastern half of Afar, northern and
southeastern Somali received falls ranging from 5
-25 mm.
Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for
September 2012
Source: NMA
As can be seen from map 2, with the exception of
parts of eastern and a few areas of northwestern
Amhara, central and southern Afar, northwestern
Somali and the western margin of Benishangul
Gumuz most parts of the country experienced
normal to above normal rainfall during the month
under review.
Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month
September 2012
Source: NMA
Parts of western Oromiya and southeastern
Benishangul Gumuz received falls in greater than
25 rainy days. Parts of western Amhara, parts of
western and eastern Oromiya, northwestern
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
6 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
SNNPR, parts of Benishangul Gumuz and some
areas of eastern Oromiya received falls in 20 - 25
rainy days. Most parts of the country received
falls in 10 - 20 rainy days. Therefore, the observed
rainfall distribution could have a positive impact
on crops which are at different phonological
stages at this time of the year. On the other hand,
the remaining parts of the country received falls in
0 – 10 rainy days during the month of September.
Weather outlook and possible impact for the
coming month/October 1-31, 2012
Normally in relation to the continuation of the
southward retreat of the Inter Tropical Convergent
Zone (ITCZ), the rain producing systems weaken
from the northern parts of Meher producing areas
of the country while the southern and southeastern
parts of the country get their second seasonal
rainfall during the month of October. However the
rainfall conditions will continue over
northwestern and western parts including
southwestern parts of Ethiopia. On the other hand
the dry and windy weather conditions will prevail
over northern, northeastern and central parts of the
country and occurrence of frost is likely over
some highlands of the country.
During the coming month of October 2012 due to
the southward retreat of rain producing systems
southern and southeastern parts of the country will
receive rainfall gradually. In addition, the western
and southwestern parts of the country will
continue to get rainfall. On the contrary, dry and
windy weather conditions are anticipated over
the northern half of the country. Near normal
rainfall is expected over western and southern
Oromiya, western Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz,
Gambella, SNNPR and southeastern lowlands of
Ethiopia. Thus, the expected rainfall situation
would favor crops that are not attaining their
maturity stage and the late sown crops in some
areas. Moreover, it would also favor the
availability of pasture and drinking water over
pastoral areas of the south and southeastern parts
of the country. The prevailing dry and windy
weather conditions anticipated over northern half
of the country would affect the normal growth and
development of crops to some extent. Thus
farmers are advised to take appropriate measures
considering the above mentioned adverse weather
conditions. On the other hand, the expected sunny
and dry situation would favor harvest activities in
some lowland areas where crops are ready for
harvest.
FOOD MARKETS
Figure 1 Food Price Index, October 2011-
September 2012, Source: CSA
Looking at Figure 1 above, between the months of
August and September 2012, food prices
increased at a similar rate to the 5 year average. In
other words, the rate of increase was similar to
seasonal expectations. The level of prices remains
very high when compared with the 5 year average.
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
7 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Figure 2 Cereal Price Index, October 2011-
September 2012, Source: CSA
Looking at figure 2 above, between the months of
August to September 2012, cereal prices increased
at a faster rate than the five year average. In other
words, the rate of increase was faster than
seasonal expectations (by approximately 2%). The
level of prices remains very high when compared
with the 5 year average.
Regional Prices
Looking at figure 3 (see appendix) there has been
a very steep increase in the price of cereals in
Gambella between the months of August and
September 2012. This is likely to have been
partially caused by transmission of high inflation
from South Sudan through cross border trade of
cereals. Strong cereal price increases have
continued in Tigray while moderate cereal price
increases have been observed in SNNP and
Amhara regions for the same period. Cereal
prices in Somali and Oromia regions on the other
hand appear to have stabilized and there has been
a fall in cereal prices in Benishangul Gumuz
during the same period.
Since the very high increase in the price of cereals
in Gambella follows strong price increases in
previous months and an upward trend since
November 2011, the purchasing power of
consumers in this region are likely to be
significantly affected and attention should be
given to this issue.
International Prices:
Figure 4 International Prices, September 2011-
2012, Source: FAO
In recent months, low expectations for Maize
harvests have resulted in high Maize prices and a
subsequent sustained increase in the cereal index.
Although Maize prices fell in September,
increases in the price of rice and wheat resulted in
a slight increase in the cereal index as a whole.
While tightening wheat supplies are currently a
concern, the news that the Russian Federation
would not impose export restrictions led to a fall
in Wheat prices in the second half of the month.
The Meat Price Index increased by 2.1% from
August. This was driven by grain intensive sectors
such as pig and poultry, while Bovine prices
increased very little and sheep prices remained
stable.
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
8 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Commodity Food Prices:
Figure 5 Addis Ababa Nominal Wholesale
commodity prices September 2011-2012, Source:
EGTE
Looking at figure 5 above, it is clear that the
nominal wholesale price of Teff in Addis Ababa
has escalated sharply between January and
September 2012. In the previous month-between
August and September 2012, this price increase
has been (3.7%), which is considerably higher
than the change in the 5 year average during the
same period (-0.1%).
Similarly, the nominal wholesale price of
Sorghum in Addis Ababa has shown steady
increase between January and August 2012. In the
previous month-between August and September
2012, Sorghum prices stabilized, while the 5 year
average predicted that they would rise by (5.7%).
The nominal wholesale price of Wheat in Addis
Ababa has shown a mild incline between January
and September 2012. Price rises have been
moderated by government subsidies for Wheat.
The nominal wholesale price of Maize in Addis
Ababa has shown a mild incline between January
and September 2012. In the previous month-
between August and September 2012, Maize
prices exhibited a moderate rise of (3.8%) which
is considerably higher than the 5 year average
which predicted a decline of (-2.1%).
Forecast
The five year average predicts that cereal prices
will continue to rise until the arrival of the green
harvest from the Meher season. Similarly, trends
in food prices are likely to follow those of cereal
prices with a one month lag.
NUTRITION
Revision of hotspot woredas: Revision of
hotspot woredas is done in two phases. The first
phase that is normally done at regional level was
completed by the end of September. The second
phase was done at federal level involving WFP,
OCHA, FEWS NET, and DRMFSS/ENCU. The
federal level revision was expected to be
completed first week of October and the final
version to be released by mid October.
TFP admissions trends: The compiled monthly
TFP reports from 7 regions indicate that new TFP
admissions continued to decrease at national level
by 6.9 percent in August to 23,049 with 83.5
percent reporting rate from 24, 753 admissions in
July. Moreover, the August decrease was the
third consecutive decrease in monthly TFP
admissions after it reached its peak in May.
However, the August admissions was 13.5 percent
lower than the projected admission for that
specific month and 5.7 percent lower than the
average monthly TFP admissions estimated in
the July to December 2012 TFP caseload. In
other words, the July and August admissions
(47,802) represent 87 percent of the projected TFP
caseload for July and August period. This implies
that the nutrition situation at national level with
respect to TFP admissions is better than was
envisaged at the beginning of July when the HRD
was being prepared.
The August report brings the total number of
SAM managed in TFP sites from January to June
to 204,915 with over 86 percent of the reports
collected. The August TFP performance indicators
(86.2 cure rates, 0.4 death rates and 3.4 defaulter
rates) continued to be similar to the national
average for January to August 2012 and above the
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
9 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
National1 and Sphere standard cut off points.
Figure 1 (see appendix) below depicts, TFP
admission trend at national level from January to
August 2012.
Regionally, TFP admissions continued to
decrease in SNNPR in August by 21.3 percent
from 8099 in July to 6371 in August. However, its
contribution to overall TFP admission decreased
from 33 percent to 27.6 percent during the same
period, as food security continued to improve
supported by combinations of nutrition related
responses (Relief food distribution, TSF, TFP and
PSNP) implemented by partners.
While, SNNPR reported consistent decrease, other
regions such as Oromiya, Afar and Amhara
reported increase in new TFP admissions in
August by 6.7, 13.9 and 50.4 percent respectively.
The increase in admission was partly linked with
poor food security in some of the woredas that
had not recovered from the drought in parts of
Oromiya and Amhara regions and therefore slight
fluctuation in TFP admissions is expected during
this period. Community Health Day (CHD)
screening done in Oromiya in East and West
Hararghe zones resulted in more children being
enrolled for TFP services. In Afar, community
based screening for implementation of TSF by
nutrition cluster partners contributed to 50 percent
increase as well as poor food security situation in
some of the woredas due to the ongoing drought.
In Tigray, TFP admissions continued to fluctuate
downward as there was no CHD screening
conducted. In Somali the reporting rate was still
below 80 percent (currently at 62%) and therefore
admission trends for August cannot be described
with certainty. Follow up of the remaining reports
was still going on at regional level.
Meanwhile, UNICEF informed the FMOH and
DRMFSS that while conducting routine quality
assurance of RUTF two out six batches tested
positive for Cronobacter Sakazakii bacterium. The
two batches contaminated with the bacterium have
been put on quarantine and will not be distributed
and arrangement will be made for disposal of the
1 Cure rate>75%, death rate< 5% and defaulter
rate<15%
contaminated batches. UNICEF will continue
testing any procured batches for cronobacter
Sakazakii to ensure that RUTF used for SAM
management are free from contamination.
TSF admissions and coverage: In August,
identification and enrolment of moderately
malnourished children and pregnant and lactating
women was done by NGOs in 54 woredas across
the country. According to the monthly TSF update
received from NGOs2, a total of 33,569 MAM
cases, 58.3 percent of them being under-five
children were enrolled in TSF programmes in the
54 hotspot woredas. WFP update for TSF
response for July to September was reported in the
last bulletin.
However, during the July to August period, WFP
and NGOs enrolled a total of 211,940
beneficiaries (i.e. about 31 percent of the July to
December HRD estimates) between July and
September of which 59.2 percent were supported
by WFP. The August update from NGOs
operational woredas makes the total of MAM
cases enrolled in TSF programmes from January
to August at national level to 706,055 of which
65.43 percent were reached by WFP supported
TSF.
Emergency nutrition surveys:
Four surveys were conducted by nutrition cluster
partners (1- Somali- Shegosh woreda; 2 in
Oromiya -Ginnir and Anchar woredas and 1 in
SNNPR - Damot Pulasa). The four survey reports
were submitted to federal ENCU in early October
for quality checking. Quality assurance was
expected to be completed in mid October and their
respective results will be reported in the
November bulletin.
Meanwhile, preparations for the third round of bi-
annual surveys to be conducted in six regions
(SNNPR, Oromiya, Amhara, Afar, Somali and
2 SC UK TSF beneficiaries from Afar region is not
included as reports were not yet submitted to the ENCU by the time of preparing this bulletin 3 Note that WFP accounted 68.7 percent of the
January to July caseload not 62 percent as it was mistakenly reported earlier.
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
10 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Tigray) commenced. The surveys were expected
to be implemented from mid October to mid
November. In order to standardize the
implementation of the bi-annual surveys in the six
regions, a total of 26 participants from the
respective regional EW bureaus, regional
UNICEF sub offices and regional ENCUs
involved in bi-annual surveys were trained on
SMART methodology for emergency nutrition
assessments for five days in Addis Ababa.
Strengthening nutrition response in hotspot
woredas: The ENCU organized a workshop for
nutrition cluster partners in September during
which a strategic nutrition response plan and road
map for nutrition cluster response for July to
December 2012 was developed. The draft
response plan was still being finalized before it is
shared with all nutrition cluster partners.
Meanwhile, the MAM guideline the development
of which started in 2011 and finalized in 2012 was
approved by the DRMFSS and circulated to all
MANTF members. All partners involved in
management of moderate Acute Malnutrition in
Ethiopia are required to use this MAM guideline
from the 1st October 2012.
Outlook for September to November 2012
As projected earlier, TFP admissions for the
September to November period will continue to
either stabilize at August levels or decrease
slightly at around 6 percent per month at national
level as estimated in the Jul to Dec 2012 HRD, as
food security, water availability and pasture for
animals continues to improve for most parts of the
country. No sharp decrease in TFP admissions is
expected since the overall monthly decrease
dropped significantly from about 17 percent (
revised as July data was retrospectively updated,
initially it was 18%) to 6.9 percent in August.
Below this level, the numerical decrease will not
be big and therefore is not likely to affect the
overall monthly admissions. Fluctuations in TFP
admissions at regional, zonal and woreda level
will continue as expected.
Since TFP programme expansion in the regions
will continue to add new SAM cases, though
small in number, this will be likely to stabilize the
average admissions per month.
As explained in the September bulletin, the
revised hotspot woreda list is expected to be
released in mid October 2012. The list is likely to
include new hotspot woredas that were not
targeted before and add new SAM and MAM
beneficiaries associated with identification of new
cases through monthly screening, community
mobilization and active case finding as part of the
nutrition response package.
RESPONSE
As of the 4th October 2012, the relief and dispatch
status for the sixth round stood at 62% complete.
Dispatch was close to completion in SNNPR
(99%), Afar (96%) and Amhara (94%). Much of
the remaining dispatch is due in Oromia (65%)
and Somali (54%) complete respectively.
Dispatch to Tigray has yet to begin as is also the
case in Dire-Dawa and Harari.
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
11 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
APPENDIX-LEAP PRODUCTS
I RAINFALL ANALYSIS
OPTION 1: DAKADAL RAINFALL ESTIMATE (mm)
September 1-10,2012 September 11-20,2012 September 21-30, 2012 Legend
Esti
mat
ed R
ain
fall
Rainfall in mm
No
rmal
R
ain
fall
(Ave
rage
of
19
95
-20
10
)
Rainfall in mm
Esti
mat
ed R
ain
fall
Ver
sus
No
rmal
Rainfall Diff. in
mm
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
12 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
ESTIMATED CUMMLATIVE
RAINFALL, September, 2012
NORMAL CUMMLATIVE RAIN,
September
CUMMLATIVE VERSUS NORMAL,
September , 2012
Esti
mat
ed C
um
ula
tive
Rai
n
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
13 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) September 2012
September 1-10 September 11-20 September 21-30 Legend
Act
ual
in F
ract
ion
No
rmal
in
Fra
ctio
n (
Ave
rage
of
19
95
-20
10
)
Act
ual
Ver
sus
No
rmal
Vegetation
Greenness
(NDVI) in
fraction -
[Compared to
Normal]
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
14 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Relief Dispatch Status
6th Round 2012 Relief food dispatch status made by DRMFSS, JEOP and WFP (H&Spokes), as of 04 Oct, 2012
Region Benef
Allocated amount (MT) Dispatched amount (MT) Dispatch status (%)
DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total DRMFSS JEOP WFP Total
Afar 145,189 2,690 0 0 2,690 2,577 0 0 2,577 96 0 0 96
Amhara 288,544 3,282 2,174 0 5,456 3,150 1,960 0 5,110 96 90 0 94
B.Gumuz 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gambella 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oromia 1,017,023 10,705 7,068 0 17,773 7,995 3,594 0 11,589 75 51 0 65
SNNPR 304,824 4,239 1,399 0 5,638 4,170 1,399 5,569 98 100 0 99
Somali 1,539,279 0 1,950 26,565 28,515 0 1,391 14,014 15,405 0 71 53 54
Tigray 393,949 4,014 3,029 0 7,043 1,809 227 0 2,036 0 7 0 0
Dire-Dawa 65,509 0 1,214 0 1,214 0 227 0 227 0 19 0 0
Harari 8,034 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 3,762,351 24,929 16,834 26,565 68,328 19,701 8,798 14,014 42,513 79 52 53 62
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
15 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
16 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Figure 1: New monthly TFP admissions and performance indicator trends, January to
August 2012 in Ethiopia
Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
17 Early Warning and Response Analysis, October 2012
Figure 2: Trends in new TFP admissions and performance indicators, January to August
2012 in SNNPR