Early Warning DecisionSupport System for theNational DisasterWarning Center, Thailand

Dr. Allen Clark, Pacific Disaster Center, Maui, Hawaiiaclark@pdc.org

INTERNATIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION CONFERENCEEarly Warning - Development, Implementation and Innovation

31 August 2006Davos, Switzerland

Allen Clark - PDC

Thailand Disaster Background

Most Significant Disasters: In past 30 years, 10

disasters have affected over35 million people, combined

These disasters are floods,droughts, tsunamis, andwind storms

Tsunami killed 8,345 in2004

Over past 60 years, 10disasters killed over 100people in each event

Source: EM-DAT www.em-dat.net

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Purpose of PDC Technical Assistance

Work closely with the National Disaster WarningCenter in its overall creation andimplementation, and specifically to: Define and document existing capabilities and

emergency processes Implement an integrated architecture for an all-hazard

disaster early-warning and decision support platform Create a platform that is user-friendly—with web-

accessible GIS, automated event tracking, and basichazard modeling

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Early Warning Components…

Earthquake

Tsunami

Floods/Storms

National / International

Data Providers

Modeling

Assessment

Risk Maps

Risk Analysis

PublicNotification

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… Leading to the DesiredIntegrated Solution

Earthquake

Tsunami

Floods/Storms

Modeling

Assessment

Risk Maps

Risk Analysis

National / International

Data Providers

PublicNotification

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NDWCDecisionSupportSystem

CONOPS SystemRequirements

DataInventory

ICTSurvey

SystemArchitecture

SystemImplementation

Early Warning System:Principal Project Components

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Goal:To develop the requirements for theDecision Support System, therebyimproving and enhancing the NDWC’sdecision-making capabilities to provideearly warning.

Concept of Operations

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InformationSources(Input)

Evaluation & Decision

InformationUsers

(Output)

ThaiOrganizations

(Domestic) CentralGovernment

LocalGovernment

RescueUnits

AffectedGroups

GeneralPublic

InternationalOrganizations

ContactCenter

Concept of Operations Flow ofInformation

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Purpose of ICT Gap Analysis

Determine Short-term ICT Gaps for theEstablishment of a Multi-Hazard Early WarningSystem: Identify the data feeds and linkages to/from NDWC; Document the existing ICT and related facilities; Compare the existing ICT with what is needed for

multi-hazard early warning and identify gaps Formulate specifications for hardware/software

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Approach and ProcessPre-Survey

Analysis

Conduct

Survey

Post-Survey

Analysis

Develop Benchmarks – “Performance measurements foroperation of the NDWC.”

Develop Survey

Compare results against

Benchmarks

AdministrateSurvey

ICT Survey

Identify gaps to guide

ICT acquisition plan

Identify recommendations

to address gaps

Workshop and Spec Hardware/Software

Identify ICT-Related Categories

Identify SupportFunctions

BaselineArchitecture

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Logical Multi-hazard Early WarningSystem Architecture

Main Services

File Svc

Web Svc (WWW)

EWSCode

DynamicData Processor

DynamicData

Sources

File & GIS Libs

Custom Scripts

DesktopGIS Tools

(COTS)

InternetIP/HTTP

User

DBMS Svc EWSDB

Spatial Data Engine (SDE)

Internet Map Svc (IMS)

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Early Warning Challenges …

Warnings / Risks areNOT Understood

Information is Scattered Dissemination is Limited “High Availability” and

Redundancy areEssential

Time is LIFE

HURRICANE DAVID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL EP04020000Z WED AUG 29 1979

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS 135 KT.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZAT 28/2300Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 59.2WMAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.45 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.34 KT... 135NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.8N 60.3WMAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.34 KT... 130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

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DynamicData

Processor

EarthquakeAdvisoryBulletin

AutomatedData

Engine

TsunamiAdvisoryBulletin

EarthquakeDetectionSystems

TidalGauge

Readings

TsunamiDetectionSystems

Tsunami Warning Criteria

Tsunami Warning Level

NDWC Atlas

EarthquakeAdvisoryBulletin

TsunamiRiskMaps

TsunamiTravelMap

HazardImpacts

Assessment

WaterLevel Mapand Table

TsunamiAdvisoryBulletin

EarthquakeRiskMaps

PopulationInformation

InfrastructureInformation

NDWCWarnings

Database

NDWC Decision Support Platform

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In Summary …

Reducing Impacts By: Integrate, Simplify, &

Expedite Processes Understand Dangers

and Risks Disseminate Warnings Decide & Act on Latest

Assessments

HURRICANE DAVID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL EP04020000Z WED AUG 29 1979HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285DEGREES AT 11 KT

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII INNAUTICALREPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 58.0W AT 29/0000ZFORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 59.2WMAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.45 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.34 KT... 135NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.8N 60.3WMAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.34 KT... 130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

Multi Hazard Information and Warning

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Acknowledgements:Contributing Authors Ray Shirkhodai - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii Cherdsak Virapat - National Disaster Warning Center, Bangkok,

Thailand Stanley Goosby -Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii James Buika - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii Chris Chiesa - Pacific Disaster Center, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii

Project Partners Pacific Disaster Center - USA National Disaster Warning Center – Thailand Lockheed Martin Information Technology, USA Environmental Systems Research Institute, USA Sun Microsystems, Inc. USA

Thank you for your kind attention!