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Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ

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Page 1: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ

Page 2: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

1

Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations

Ma’aden Investor Relations

Page 3: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Forward looking statement

This presentation contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements, including statements about the beliefs and expectations of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (the "Company"). These statements are based on the Company's current plans, estimates and projections, as well as its expectations of external conditions and events. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties and speak only as of the date they are made. As a result of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, a prospective investor should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A number of important factors could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. The Company is not obliged to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward- looking statements made in this presentation whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This communication has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of the Company. It has not been reviewed, approved or endorsed by any financial advisor, lead manager, selling agent, receiving bank or underwriter retained by the Company. This communication is provided for information purposes only. In addition, because this communication is a summary only, it may not contain all material terms and this communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. The information and opinions herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy reasonableness or completeness of the information and opinions. There is no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify you if information, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. You are strongly advised to seek your own independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency, rate or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The Company disclaims liability for any loss arising out of or in connection with your use of, or reliance on, this communication. These materials may not be published, distributed or transmitted and may not be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the explicit consent of Ma’aden’s management. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in any jurisdiction.

Page 4: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

3

Khalid S. Al-Mudaifer President & CEO

Page 5: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

4

► Revenue of SAR 2,316 million, down by 9% due to lower commodity prices in phosphate segment

► EBITDA of SAR 919 million, up by 6%, strong cost control measured helped increased margins

► Net income of SAR 96 million, down by 21%, due to higher financial charges and losses from jointly

controlled entities

► Net cash generated from operations SAR 752 million, up by 46%

Financial

► 672K tonnes of ammonium phosphate fertilizer sold, an increase of 7%

► 151K tonnes of ammonia sold, an increase of 14%, due to higher ammonia available for external sales

► 203K tonnes of aluminium* sold, a decline of 4%, due to higher inventory at Ma’aden corporate

► 57K ounces of gold sold, up 33%, addition from new mine Ad –Duwayhi helped in higher sales

Operational

Highlights (Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015)

* Total sales by smelter including sales through Ma’aden and Alcoa as marketers and to the rolling company

Investment

► Capex of SAR 1.4 billion spent in Q3 2016 mainly on the Wa’ad al Shamal (WAS) project

► WAS project is progressing well, its ammonia plant started trial production on September 6, 2016

► Al Ba’itha Bauxite mine and Alumina Refinery declared commercial production on October 2, 2016

Page 6: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Phosphate

► Phosphate remains a key commodity, delivering an increase of 3% in production and 7% in fertilizer sales

► Ammonium phosphate fertilizer price averaged - US$ 338/tonne (Tampa FOB Index)

► Ammonia price averaged - US$ 256/tonne (Middle East FOB Index)

► Wa’ad Al Shamal (WAS) ammonia plant began trial production on September 6, 2016

► WAS project is progressing well to complete construction of the remaining plants

DAP Price Tampa Index (US$/t)

5

► Downward pressure on fertilizer market continues ► Lower raw materials input costs ► Weaker demand and new supply from China

► Indian market demand is slow

► High stock levels of ammonium phosphate fertilizer

► Monsoon not proceeding as expected

► Q4 prices expected to remain under pressure ► Fertilizer application season in key markets

coming to an end particularly in South Asia

Source: Ma’aden SBU analysis, CRU, FERTECON and FMB

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

1-Oct-16 1-Jul-16 1-Apr-16 1-Jan-16 1-Oct-15 1-Jul-15 1-Apr-15 1-Jan-15

-30% -14% -2%

Avg. DAP Prices

2016

Q3-16

2015-16

Page 7: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

► Demand for Aluminium expected to continue to grow at ~5% over the next five years

► Global supply and demand is nearing

balance towards the end of 2016

Aluminium

6

► Smelter is stable and currently operating at above its designed capacity

► Al Ba’itha bauxite mine and alumina refinery declared commercial production on October 1, 2016. The mine and the refinery reached up to 90% capacity utilization during Q3 2016

► We expect to sell surplus alumina to third parties in the next quarter or so after meeting our full demand for alumina from Ma’aden’s smelter

► Rolling mill continues to ramp up production

Aluminium price 3M CS (US$/t)

Source: Bloomberg, CRU September 2016, secondary analysis

1,200.00

1,300.00

1,400.00

1,500.00

1,600.00

1,700.00

1,800.00

1,900.00

Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16

Page 8: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

► Gold prices rose 20% due to large ETF inflows

► Mounting speculation that US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates before year end led to slight dip in gold price at the end of Q3 2016

► The demand for copper is expected to grow by 2% to 23.34 million tonnes in 2016

► However, prices have remained weak on over-supply

Gold and copper

7

► Gold production and sales grew 33% year over year due to the new addition of Ad-Duwayhi mine

► Ma’aden continues to aim for 500,000 ounces of gold production

► With commercial production beginning on 1 July 2016, Jabal Sayid produced and sold 9.9K tonnes of copper in Q3 2016

► Jabal Sayid will gradually ramp up to production of 45K tonnes per year

Gold and Copper prices

Source: Bloomberg, ICSG, secondary analysis

US$/oz US$/t

Gold

Copper

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

5,000.00

5,500.00

6,000.00

900.00

950.00

1,000.00

1,050.00

1,100.00

1,150.00

1,200.00

1,250.00

1,300.00

1,350.00

1,400.00

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

Page 9: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Wa’ad Al Shamal

8

Wa’ad Al Shamal

Plant % Completion

Beneficiation Plant 84.8%

Sulphuric Acid Plant 88.2%

Phosphoric Acid Plant 86.9%

Ammonia Plant 100.0%

DAP Plant 70.8%

► Ma’aden Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate project is

progressing well to completing construction of the complexes in Wa’ad Al Shamal and Ras Al-Khair

► The ammonia plant started its trial production on September 6, 2016 ahead of schedule.

Page 10: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Al Ba’itha bauxite mine and alumina refinery

9

Ma’aden Alumina Refinery ► First Alumina produced on December 21, 2014

► After an industry leading ramp-up process, the

alumina refinery achieved up to 90% of its

designed capacity during Q3 2016

► Alumina quality as per best International standards

► 100% material transportation by Rail

► Ma’aden Bauxite Mine and Alumina Refinery is the

first alumina producer in the GCC

► First quartile in terms of cost on alumina

Page 11: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Increasing productivity and reducing costs

► Initiatives begun in 2015 to increase productivity and to reduce our costs

► Benefits of these efforts continue to support our results in the face of difficult market conditions

Cost of sales

Selling marketing and logistics

General and administrative

Key initiatives

► Increasing productivity and volumes across all our

production facilities

► Reducing cost through:

► Efficiencies

► Higher throughput

► Re-negotiation of contracts

► Optimising sustaining capex

► Working capital and inventory management

Q3 2016 vs

Q3 2015

Q3 2016 vs

Q2 2016

EBITDA Margin

► Programme underway to generate significant incremental cash-flows over the next 5 years

-18%

-24%

+6pp

Exploration and tech services -66% 2%

10

y-o-y q-o-q

-10% -10%

+3pp

-15%

-8%

Page 12: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

11

Darren Davis Vice President, Finance & CFO

Page 13: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Net income Attributable to

shareholders’ of the parent company

Q3-15 Q2-16 Q3-16

All numbers are in SAR million

Q3 2016 vs

Q3 2015

Q3 2016 vs

Q2 2016

-37%

-9%

Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015

► Revenue decreased by 9% y-o-y mainly due to the

lower commodity prices in phosphate segment

and the decrease in sales volume of aluminum,

despite the favorable effect of an increase in the

average realized price of gold by 20%, and the

increase in sales volume of ammonium phosphate

fertilizers (APF), ammonia and gold

► Net income benefited from short term

investments and a decrease in the provision for

zakat but was reduced by an increase in finance

charges due to an increase in SIBOR, increased

losses in the jointly controlled entities (SAMAPCO

and MBCC) and an increase in other expenses

Q3 2016 vs Q2 2016

► Revenue decreased by 9% q-o-q due to the decline

in the average realized prices of APF and

ammonia, and decrease in sales volume of

aluminum. Despite the favorable effect of an

increased in the average realized prices of gold

and aluminum

► Net income decreased due to the increased losses

in jointly controlled entities (SAMAPCO and MBCC)

by 111%, higher financial charges by 5% due to an

increase in SIBOR and LIBOR, but was slightly

offset by lower provision for zakat.

12

Net income

EBITDA

Operating income

Sales

Key financial results

2,541 2,546 2,316

255 326 307

856

947 919

122 142 96

80

132 84

-9%

6% -3%

20% -6%

-32% -21%

5%

Page 14: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

13

Net income bridge – Q3 2016 vs Q2 2016

► Net income declined mainly on account of lower commodity prices in phosphate segment, higher financial charges and higher losses in jointly controlled entities. Decline in net income was largely offset by our continued focus on the cost reduction measures and increased sales volumes

-42

142 3

8

11

-26

96

Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Price effect

Volume effect

COGS Sales, Mktg, G&A

Finance charges & SAMAPCO

Page 15: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Aluminium

14

1,620

1,550

1,621

Q3-15 Q2-16 Q3-16

122

130

110

► During Q3, we produced 216K tonnes of primary aluminium, an increase of 2% and sold 203K tonnes of primary aluminium a decline of 4% as compared to the same quarter previous year

► Our drive to make our smelter the most efficient and lowest cost producer is on-going. We have been successful to reduce a large part of our cost and with the mine and alumina refinery declaring commercial production should add to the benefits

► On October 1, 2016, Al Ba’itha bauxite mine and

alumina refinery began commercial production. The alumina refinery has already achieved up to 90% of its capacity during Q3 2016

► Average LME price remained flat compared to same quarter last year. However the prices for aluminium improved by around 5% compared to Q2 2016

► Market expectations are that current prices will hold and will see some improvements as we see the metal balancing happens towards the end of 2016

► The physical premium has been stable and is currently in the range of 90-100 $/t

212

207

203

211

220

216

Aluminium sales – corp* (‘000 tonnes)

Average LME prices (US$/t)

Aluminium (‘000 tonnes) ` Production

` Sales

* Corp- Ma’aden sales through SBU

Page 16: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Phosphate

15

462

332 336

415 400

314

628

705

672 685

669

708

Ammonium phosphate fertilizer (‘000 tonnes)

Ammonia (‘000 tonnes)

` Production

` Sales

` DAP prices

` Ammonia prices

Average DAP prices (US$/t)

Q3-15 Q2-16 Q3-16

132 154 151

253

300 312

► During Q3, we produced 708K tonnes of ammonium phosphate fertilizer and 312K tonnes of ammonia, highest in the year, an increase of 3% in ammonium phosphate fertilizer and 23% in ammonia as compared to Q3 2015

► In Q3 2016, we sold 672K tonnes of ammonium phosphate fertilizer, an increase of 7% compared to previous quarter. This is mainly on account of increased output. Our external sales of ammonia increased by 14% mainly due to higher production.

► Ammonium phosphate fertilizer and ammonia prices have declined significantly by over 27% and 24% respectively as compared to Q3 2015

► However the prices of ammonium phosphate fertilizer remained almost flat and ammonia prices declined sharply by 22% as compared to previous quarter

Page 17: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Gold and Copper

Average prices

16

` Production

` Sales ► During the quarter, production and sales of gold

increased by 33% to 57Koz respectively compared to the same quarter last year

► Continuous efforts are underway to reduce costs,

with Ad Duwayhi in operations we expect the overall production and sales to increase and costs per ounce to come down in coming quarters

► The gold prices increased by 20% in Q3 2016 as compared to same quarter last year, whereas the prices increased by 5% as compared to Q2 2016

► Jabal Sayid started its commercial operation on July 1, 2016; post which it produced and sold 9.9K tonnes of copper concentrate in Q3 2016

► Production of Jabal Sayid is progressing very well with 6 of the 10 planned copper concentrate shipments for the year

Q3-15 Q2-16 Q3-16

Gold (‘Koz)

- -

10

- -

10

Copper (‘000 tonnes)

` Gold Prices (US$/oz)

` Copper Prices (US$/t)

Source: Bloomberg

43

63 57

43

60 57

1,103

1,269 1,328

4,650

4,782

Page 18: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Key takeaways

17

Ramp-up capacities and optimize costs ► Focus on ramp-up at aluminium, gold, and copper ► Focus to complete the construction of WAS plants ► Continued focus on generating free cash flow ► Remain committed to optimise operating costs and capex across all affiliates Commodity prices ► Prices for aluminium have improved but not clear that the recovery is sustainable or that the

recovery trend will continue ► Phosphate prices remain soft due to low input costs, more supply and slower than expected

demand from India Ma’aden is well positioned ► To benefit from improvements in prices ► Continue to build our large scale business with ongoing project completions ► Play a key role in The Kingdom’s Vision 2030 plan for mining

Page 19: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Q & A

Page 20: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Appendix

Page 21: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

20

Net income bridge – Q3-16 vs Q3-15

► Net income declined mainly on account of lower commodity prices in phosphate segment, higher financial charges and higher losses in jointly controlled entity. Decline in net income was largely offset by our continued focus on the cost reduction measures and increased sales volumes

122

-313

87

246

22 -112

44 96

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Price effect

Volume effect

COGS Sales, Mktg, G&A

Finance charges & SAMAPCO

Short Term Invt & Others

Page 22: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

43 44 45 45

53 53

56

34 36

38 40

42

45 46

45% 47% 47% 47% 48%

51%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Total debt Net debt Net debt to capital

Debt and Liquidity

(All numbers are in SAR billion)

Available total liquidity of SAR 19.2 billion*

Liquidity = Cash and cash equivalent + short term investments + undrawn portion of revolving credit facility * As on 30 September 2016

SAR

bill

ion

.

Page 23: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Sales summary

22

Particulars Q3

2016

Q3

2015

%

change

y-o-y

Q2

2016

%

change

q-o-q

Nine

months

2016

Nine

months

2015

%

change

y-o-y

Phosphate business

Ammonium phosphate

fertilizer (‘000 tonnes) 672 627 7% 705 -5% 1,975 1,887 5%

Ammonia (‘000 tonnes) 151 132 14% 154 -2% 511 318 61%

Aluminium business

Primary Aluminium

(‘000 tonnes) 203 212 -4% 207 -2% 644 612 5%

Precious and base

metals business

Gold (‘000 ounces) 57 43 33% 63 -10% 160 123 30%

Copper (‘000 tonnes) 9.9 - - - - 9.9 - -

Page 24: Earnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 - MaadenEarnings Call Presentation Q3 2016 18 October, 2016 Riyadh-HQ 1 Walid Al-Hakim Head Investor Relations Ma’aden Investor Relations Forward

Thank you

Ma’aden Investor Relations