earnings, revenues, & valuation: s&p 500/400/600

Earnings, Revenues, &Valuation:

S&P 500/400/600Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 14, 2014

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

November 14, 2014 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

S&P Earnings 3S&P 500 Earnings 4S&P 400 Earnings 5S&P 600 Earnings 6S&P 500/400/600 2014 Quarterly Earnings 7S&P 500/400/600 2014 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 8S&P 500/400/600 2015 Quarterly Earnings 9S&P 500/400/600 2015 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 10S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Earnings 11S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 12S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin 13S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 14S&P Blue Angels 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 17S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 18S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 19S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 20

Figure 1.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

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140

50

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90

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2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 117.76 130.63 128.65 Nov 6 117.99 130.14 128.50

1314

1511/6

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-week forward*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201525

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 75.05 85.80 84.15 Nov 6 74.82 85.83 84.35

13 1415

11/6S&P 400

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-week forward*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 32.34 39.64 38.52 Nov 6 32.40 39.51 38.55

1314

1511/6

S&P 600

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-week forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P Earnings

/ November 14, 2014 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.yardeni.com


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 117.76 130.63 128.65 Nov 6 117.99 130.14 128.50

1314

15

11/6

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-week forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

I II III IV I II III IV I II2013 2014 2015

26

27

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29

30

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32

33

34

35

26

27

28

29

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31

32

33

34

35

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 29.63 30.91 Nov 6 29.97 30.79

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2014 By Quarteras of 11/06/14

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2014(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 3.

S&P 500 Earnings



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201525

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 75.05 85.80 84.15 Nov 6 74.82 85.83 84.35

13 14

1511/6

S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual

52-week forward*

* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.


15

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17

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23

15

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Q3 Q4 Oct 30 19.55 20.61 Nov 6 19.77 20.52

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2014(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)



yardeni.com

Figure 5.

S&P 400 Earnings



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 32.34 39.64 38.52 Nov 6 32.40 39.51 38.55

13

14

1511/6

S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-week forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.


6

7

8

9

10

11

6

7

8

9

10

11

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 8.24 8.83 Nov 6 8.29 8.76

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2014(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)



yardeni.com

Figure 7.

S&P 600 Earnings



Figure 8.


24

26

28

30

32

34

36

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 29.63 30.91 Nov 6 29.97 30.79

Q1

Q2Q3

Q4




12

14

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20

22

24

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 19.55 20.61 Nov 6 19.77 20.52

Q1

Q2

Q3Q4

S&P 400(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)



6

7

8

9

10

11

6

7

8

9

10

11

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 8.24 8.83 Nov 6 8.29 8.76

Q1

Q2

Q3Q4




yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 2014 Quarterly Earnings



Figure 9.


-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

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15

20

Q3 Q4 Oct 30 7.2 8.0 Nov 6 8.5 7.6

Q2Q3Q4


Q1

S&P 500: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2014(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

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Q3 Q4 Oct 30 12.9 14.7 Nov 6 14.2 14.2

Q2

Q3Q4


Q1

S&P 400


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30

35

-5

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Q3 Q4 Oct 30 5.9 15.1 Nov 6 6.6 14.2

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q42014 By Quarteras of 11/06/14


yardeni.com

S&P 600

S&P 500/400/600 2014 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth



Figure 10.


29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

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38

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 30.58 32.45 33.09 35.00 Nov 6 30.50 32.38 33.09 34.78

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4




18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

18

19

20

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22

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24

25

26

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 18.85 21.46 22.02 23.61 Nov 6 18.86 21.46 22.06 23.69

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2015 By Quarteras of 11/06/14

S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2015(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)


8

9

10

11

12

8

9

10

11

12

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 8.85 9.84 10.29 10.65 Nov 6 8.80 9.83 10.30 10.58

Q1

Q2

Q3Q4




yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 2015 Quarterly Earnings



Figure 11.


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 8.5 7.8 11.7 13.2 Nov 6 8.2 7.6 10.4 13.0

Q1Q2

Q3

Q4 2015 By Quarteras of 11/06/14

S&P 500: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2015(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 14.4 14.8 12.6 14.6 Nov 6 14.4 14.8 11.6 15.4

Q1Q2

Q3

Q4


S&P 400


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 30 25.7 21.9 24.9 20.6 Nov 6 25.0 21.8 24.2 20.8

Q1

Q2Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600

S&P 500/400/600 2015 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015140

340

540

740

940

1140

1340

15401740194021402340

140

340

540

740

940

1140

1340

15401740194021402340

11/14S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)

S&P 500 LargeCap (2040)S&P 400 MidCap (1431)S&P 600 SmallCap (679)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

11/6S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (128.5)

S&P 600 SmallCap (38.6)S&P 400 MidCap (84.4)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Earnings



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20168

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

11/7

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(weekly)

S&P 500 LargeCap (15.8)S&P 400 MidCap (17.0)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.6)

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

11/14

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500/400/600 INDEXES*(daily)

S&P 500 LargeCap (15.9)S&P 400 MidCap (17.0)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.6)

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

S&P 500/400/600 P/Es



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

700

750

800

850

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1050

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1150

1200

1250

11/6

13

14

15S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual

52-week forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

7

8

9

10

11

12

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2014 2015 Frwd Oct 30 10.1 10.7 10.6 Nov 6 10.1 10.7 10.7

11/613 14

15

11/6

yardeni.com

(percent, using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN

Consensus Forecasts

52-week forward*

Annual

Figure 17.

S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin



Figure 18.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

11/6

13

14

15S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual revenues

Forward revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550

70

90

110

130

150

50

70

90

110

130

150

11/613

1415

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual earnings

Forward earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

7

8

9

10

11

12

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

11/613 1415

yardeni.com

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

Consensus Forecasts

Forward margins*

Annual margins

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015600

800

1000

1200

1400

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1800

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1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

x10

x11

x12

x13

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x15

x16

S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION

S&P 50011/14/14

S&P 500 Blue AngelsImplied Price Index*11/06/14

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

300

500

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1100

1300

1500

1700

x10

x12

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x16

X18


S&P 40011/14/14



yardeni.com

Figure 20.

S&P Blue Angels



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18

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S&P 60011/14/14



yardeni.com

Figure 21.

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

40

70

100

130

160

190

220

10

40

70

100

130

160

190

220

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS*(ratio scale)

11/6

7%growth rate**

* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

S&P Blue Angels



Figure 23.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20155

15

25

3545

11/61415CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(S&P 500 forward earningsby sector)

Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201513

18

23

28

3311/614 15INDUSTRIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201512

16

20

24

28

32

11/61415CONSUMER STAPLES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201515

25

35

45

55

11/614 15INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520

30

40

50

6070

11/614 15

ENERGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

11

16

21

26

11/614 15

MATERIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

18

28

384858

11/61415

FINANCIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

8

10

12

14

11/614

15TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520

25

30

35

40

4550

11/6

1415

HEALTH CARE


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201511

12

13

14

15

1511/6

14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings



Figure 24.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015250

300

350

400

450

11/6

14

15CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(S&P 500 forward revenuesby sector)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015210

240

270

300

330

11/61415

INDUSTRIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015200

250

300

350

400

450

15 11/614

CONSUMER STAPLES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015125

150

175

200

225

250275

11/614 15

INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015375

475

575

675

775

11/614 15

ENERGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015160

180

200

220

240

11/6

14 15MATERIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015120

160

200

240

280

11/614 15

FINANCIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201595

105

115

125

135

14 15

11/6

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015175

225

275

325

375

425475

11/6

1415

HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in red) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in blue).Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015125

135

145

155

165

1511/6

14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues



Figure 25.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151

3

5

7

9

11

11/614 15

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(S&P 500 profit marginby sector)

Annual margins

Forward margins*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

7

8

9

10

11

11/61415

INDUSTRIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20155.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

11/6

14

15CONSUMER STAPLES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

12

14

16

18

20

22

11/61415

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20155

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

11/614 15

ENERGY

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154

6

8

10

12

11/614

15

MATERIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20155

10

15

20

11/614

15FINANCIALS

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154

6

8

10

12

14

1415

11/6

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20159.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

11/614 15

HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

14

15

11/6

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin



Figure 26.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

15

20

25

30

35

11/6

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(S&P 500 forward P/Es by sector)

(17.4)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

11

14

17

20

11/6

INDUSTRIALS(16.0)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201510

12

14

16

18

20

11/6CONSUMER STAPLES(18.6)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

11/6

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(15.6)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154

6

8

10

12

14

16

11/6ENERGY (13.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

11/6

MATERIALS(15.8)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

11/6

FINANCIALS(14.0)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

11/6

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(13.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

11/6

HEALTH CARE


(16.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20158

10

12

14

16

18

20

11/6

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(17.1)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es



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earnings, revenues, & valuation: s&p 500/400/600

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