Earthquake Hazard Loss Estimationfor the City of Huntington Beach, Californiaby Daniel Richards, GISP, GIS Manager, City of Huntington Beach

Introduction

!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

Methodology

Results Summary

Planning and preparing for disaster is the key tocreating safer, stronger, and protectedcommunities. In response, FEMA has created theHazus program to graphically illustrate potentiallosses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes.Hazus uses GIS technology to identify and quantifythe risks associated with various disasterscenarios.The Hazus model incorporates informationincluding population demographics, structures bytype, essential facilities including hospitals, policeand fire stations, transportation and utility features,and general soil conditions. The methodology is acompilation of the knowledge base of experts inthe fields of geology, engineering, architecture,economics, hydrology, and public works. The goalof Hazus is to support local communities byassisting in the creation of hazard mitigation,response, and recovery plans.

The Hazus workstation was configured withArcGIS 10 and HazusMH 2.1 software and loadedwith the California Default Inventory Datadownloaded from the FEMA website(http://www.fema.gov/hazus-software). The studyregion was selected as the 48 census tractscovering the city of Huntington Beach incorporatedlimits, including the Bolsa Chica. The earthquakescenario was defined to be a magnitude 7.0 strikeslip quake along the north branch of the Newport-Inglewood fault in the vicinity of HuntingtonHarbour (33.7221 North Latitude, 118.0611 WestLongitude) at a depth of 1.2 miles. This event issimilar to the 6.4 magnitude event of the LongBeach quake of 1933.Though the Hazus program allows theincorporation of user supplied data to increase theaccuracy of the results, this study uses the defaultdata supplied by FEMA to perform the analysis,which will be used for comparison in a follow upstudy. The goal here is to examine the relevance ofthe default data in producing usable information forearthquake assessment modeling.

The first result to be examined is the Peak GroundAcceleration in units of gravity (g). PGA isinfluenced by fault length, depth, magnitude, anddistance to the epicenter. In the following map, themaximum horizontal movement is proximate to theepicenter, decreasing in a radial pattern from theepicenter.

GroundMotionAcceleration in G

0.53 - 0.650.651 - 0.740.741 - 0.850.851 - 1.00Over 1 G

!R EpicenterFaults

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

Total ExposureValue ($000)

156048 - 326796326796 - 497544497544 - 668292668292 - 839040839040 - 10097881009788 - 1180535FaultsParks 0 1 20.5 Miles

TotalExposure of

BuildingStock

pShakingIntensity

0 1 20.5 Miles

!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seap oint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

Physical Damageto Building

Stock

Structural Loss($000)

0 - 15001500.1 - 20002000.1 - 28002800.1 - 36003600.1 - 13400

!R EpicenterFaults 0 1 20.5 Miles

Next to be calculated is the physical damage to thestudy area's general building stock. Damage isestimated for groups of buildings, and reported bycensus tract, and defined in terms of probabilitythat a specific building type will sustain a specifiedlevel of damage when subjected to the definedground motion.

Damage to the lifelines, including arteries oftransportation, can greatly affect the functionality ofa community. Damage to this system can hamperemergency response, and access to food andwater. The following map depicts the probabilitythat greater than moderate damage will besustained to a specific transportation artery.

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!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

Physical Damageto Transportation

Transportation LossProbability

! 0 - 10%! 10.1 - 20%! 20.1 - 30%! 30.1 - 50%! Over 50%!R Epicenter

Faults 0 1 20.5 Miles

Damage to the schools can affect the ability toprovide shelter and essential community services.In the Long Beach quake of 1933, over 230schools were destroyed or sustained majordamage.

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!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

Physical Damageto Schools

School LossProbability

! 0 - 10%! 10.1 - 0.11%! 11.1 - 13%! 13.1 - 15%! Over 15%!R Epicenter

Faults 0 1 20.5 Miles

The number of fire ignitions is based on the FEMAFire Following Earthquake Model which takes intoaccount the type and density of fuel, the capacityof the water system, the number of firefightingresources, and the wind conditions. The followingchart illustrates the number of census tracts havingbetween 100 and 500 fire ignitions within the tract,and the demand for water to supress the fires.

The number of displaced households can be usedto determine needs for shelter, both short and longterm, and assist in the evaluation of current sheltercapacity and planning for greater capacity in theevent of a disaster. The model also takes intoaccount the loss of shelters due to structuraldamage. The map below shows the estimatednumber of people needing shelter per census tract.

!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

The final consideration in the model is themanagement and removal of debris following anearthquake. Two types of debris are considered:reinforced concrete and steel that must be brokenup before transportation, and brick, wood, andother debris that can be loaded onto trucks withheavy lifting equipment. The amount of debris foreach census tract is estimated based on thestructural damage to the building stock,transportation and bridges, and other physicalsystems. The map in the next column exhibits thepattern of debris generation.

Need for Shelter

Displaced HouseholdsNumber of Persons

1 - 1011 - 2627 - 4647 - 7071 - 232

!R EpicenterFaults 0 1 20.5 Miles

!R

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Lake

St.

McFadden Ave.

Bolsa Ave.

Grah

am S

t.

Golde

nwes

t St.

Gotha

rd St

.

Edinger Ave.

Heil Ave.

Warner Ave.

Talbert Ave.

Slater Ave.

Ellis Ave.

Goldenw

est St.

17th S

t.

Broo

khurs

t St.

Bush

ard S

t.

Ward

St.

Atlanta Ave.

Hamilton Ave.

Banning Ave.

Beac

hBlvd

.

Warner Ave.

Indianapolis Ave.

Magn

olia

St.

Yorktown Ave.

Adams Ave.

Garfield Ave.

Newl

and S

t.McFadden Ave.

Edwa

rds

St.

Sprin

gdale

St

.

Bolsa

Chic

a St

.

Sayb

rook L

n.

Palm Ave.

Seapoint St.

Pacific Coast Hwy.

Main St.

Main St.

Brookhu

rst St.

Edinger Ave.

HuntingtonHarbour

Boeing

BellaTerra

Downtown

CivicCenter

EdwardsHill

Beach

Comm

ercial

Corrid

or

SeaCliff

GoldenWest

College

CentralPark

EdisonHS/

CommunityCenter

OceanviewHS

MarinaHS

HuntingtonHS

SealBeach

Westminster

FountainValley

GardenGrove

CostaMesa

DebrisGenerated

Debris in Tons (000)

1 - 44.1 - 77.1 - 99.1 - 1212.1 - 100

!R EpicenterFaults 0 1 20.5 Miles

The Hazus loss estimation analysis displays thecurrent vulnerabilities facing the city of HuntingtonBeach if an event similar to the Long Beach quakeof 1933 were to occur. With this information, thecity can prepare a disaster mitigation, response,and recovery plan, and create an emergencyevacuation route based on the population patternsand arteries determined to be best capable ofwithstanding a seismic event. With the Hazusmodel, there are uncertainties in the model due toincomplete and oversimplified data, and losses inurbanized areas tend to be overestimated.Additional analysis will be performed with datasupplied from the highly detailed Huntington BeachGIS to determine the appropriateness of the FEMAdefault data in estimating losses. For moreinformation on the Hazus program, software, andtechnical manuals, visit the FEMA Hazus web siteand resource library at www.fema.gov/hazus-software.

Note the highvalue of exposedbuildings in thenorth representingthe Boeingcomplex.

Generally radialpattern from theepicenter - HuntingtonHarbour containsmany vunerable highpriced properties.

Damage tobuilding stockcould be greaterdue to dominanceof liquefactionsoils in study area

Fortunately,Beach Blvd, amajor artery,appears tosustain a lowprobability of loss

Overall, schoolshave a lowprobability ofdamage due toField Actmandates

The Beach Blvdcorridor, witholder buildingstock, will needthe most shelter

Greatest amountof debris will begenerated in thecommercial andindustrialcorridors

p

p

p

p

p

p

ArcGIS 10.0 SP2Hazus MH 2.1

Install Hazus California Default

Inventory

Install Hazus Multi-Hazard v2.1 Structural Damage

Probabilities

Define Scenario

Ground Shaking Contour Map

Structural Damage Report

Install ArcGIS on Windows 7 x64

Workstation

Hazus California Default Inventory

Perform Analysis

Essential Facility Losses

Fire Losses

Social Losses

Economic ImpactGenerate Reports

Essential Facility Loss Report

Social Loss Report

Economic Impact Report

Transportation/Utility Damage

Report

Damage Estimates

Losses due to Building Damage

(repairing or replacing buildings,

contents, or inventories)

Social Impacts(short and long

term shelter needs)

Losses due to Business

Interruption(lost rental or other income, relocation

costs)

Life Safety Consequences

(casualties)