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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT
TO REAL APPLICATIONSTO REAL APPLICATIONS
YASIN M. FAHJANDepartment of Earthquake and Structural Sciences
Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, [email protected]
Universidade do MinhoDepartamento de Engenharia Civil
SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKEENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY
July 12, 2010
Attenuation of Seismic EnergyAttenuation of Seismic Energy
Local Site Effects:Local Site Effects:EventEvent
HAZARD ASSESSMENT
INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK
VULNERABILITIES
RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
LOSS RESULTS
Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City LevelLevel
SEISMIC HAZARDSEISMIC HAZARD
DeterministicConsider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motionChoose the largest ground motion from cases considered
ProbabilisticConsider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of
Attenuation Attenuation RelationshipRelationship
DETERMINISTIC APPROACHDETERMINISTIC APPROACH
Seismic source characterizationEstimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each sourceSelection of ground motion attenuation modelsQuantification of the seismic hazard
F2
F1
Faults(line sources)
Area source
log(N)
M
SOURCEMODELS
RECURRENCE
pga,
Sa,
Ai
GROUND MOTIONATTENUATION
distancePr
obab
ility
of
exce
edan
ce
Acceleration
SEISMICHAZARDCURVES
SEISMIC HAZARD MAP
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARDPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD
Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000)
The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroitvessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)
SOURCE CHARACTERIZATIONSOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD –1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)
Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake CatalogCatalog
The sequence of earthquakes in the 18The sequence of earthquakes in the 18thth century (after Hubertcentury (after Hubert--Ferrari, 2000).Ferrari, 2000).
The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present
Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
Source Source ZonationZonation SchemeScheme
Koeri, 2002
RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPSRECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS
Koeri, 2002
The NEHRP-based Soil Classification
Koeri, 2002
Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)
Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)
SiteSite--correction Defined correction Defined iin n tthe 1997 NEHRP he 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997).Provisions (NEHRP 1997).
Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment
Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Koeri, 2002
Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment
Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Koeri, 2002
Standard Shape of the Standard Shape of the DesignDesign SpectrumSpectrum(NEHRP 1997) (NEHRP 1997)
T0 TS 1.0
SM1
SMS
Sa=S M1 / T
Period
Sa
0.4 S MS
RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELSRISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS
National Level City Level(District & Sub-district)
Building Level
Risk Assessment At NATIONAL LevelRisk Assessment At NATIONAL Level
Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city
Members Capacity
Assessment ProceduresAssessment Procedures At At Building Building LevelLevel
Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy
Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City LevelLevel
ELEMENTS AT RISKELEMENTS AT RISK
• Buildings • Lifeline Systems Built Environment
• Population• Socio-Economic Activities
Vulnerability Estimation MethodologyVulnerability Estimation Methodology
Observed VulnerabilityBased on Previous Earthquake Damage Data
Calculated VulnerabilityBased on computed performance of the building class
Observed VulnerabilityObserved Vulnerability
AdvantageBased on Observed Damage in previous EarthquakesSimple Concept
LimitationsIntensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parametersRegional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building
HAZUS, 2003
Classification of Structural DamagesClassification of Structural Damages
EMS-1998
Koeri, 2002
Calculated VulnerabilityCalculated Vulnerability
AdvantageBased on Engineering Ground Motion ParametersApplied to all building classesBased on Soil and Structural Response
LimitationsNot based on damage dataNon-structural failure can not be considered
HAZUS, 2003
General General AnalysisAnalysis ProcedureProcedure ForFor BuildingsBuildings LossLossEstimationEstimation
IST, 2004
Line plot for vulnerability curvesLine plot for vulnerability curves
Classification of Structural Damage(1) Slight damage(2) Moderate damage(3) Extensive damage(4) Complete damage
Classification of CasualtiesSeverity 1
Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization
Severity 2Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and
hospitalizationSeverity 3
Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously
Severity 4Instantaneously killed or mortally injured
Example for Classification of Building Types Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing DatabaseAccording to Existing DatabaseConstruction Type ( I )
1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building
2. Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings
3. Masonry and plain concrete buildings
Number of stories ( J )1. Low rise (1-3 stories)2. Mid rise (4-6 stories)3. High-rise (more than 6 stories)
Construction date ( K )1. Construction year: Pre-19852. Construction year: Post-1985
Spectral D
isplacement B
ased LossS
pectral Displacem
ent Based Loss
Estim
ation Analysis
Estim
ation Analysis
Input Building Inventory
Database for Geo-Cells
Input Spectral Acceleration for
Geo-Cells
Input Spectral Displacement
Based Vulnerabilities
Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types
Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type
Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building
Class
Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State
Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups
Input Economic Loss Data
Parameters
Input Demographic Database for
Geo-Cells
Input Casualties Loss data
Parameters
Casualties Losses for geo-Cells, Sub-
district, Districts
Economic Losses for geo-Cells, Sub-
district, Districts
Buildings Damages for geo-Cells, Sub-
district, Districts
Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities
TransportationTransportation SystemsSystems
Highway Systems:A highway transportation system consists of roadways, bridges and tunnels. ( geographicallocation, classification, and replacement costof the system components)
Highway RoadsMajor RoadsUrban Roads
Highway Bridges
Transportation system: Earthquake Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Vulnerability and Damage
Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining walls.
Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorway is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII
LifelineLifeline UtilityUtility SystemsSystems
Potable Water SystemA potable water system consists of pipelines, water treatment plants, wells, storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines )Brittle PipeDuctile PipeWells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment PlantsPumping Plants
Waste WaterA waste water system consists of pipelines, waste water treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).
Damage FunctionsDamage Functions for Water Pipelines for Water Pipelines
STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARESTRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE(Updated Version of (Updated Version of KoeriLossKoeriLoss 1.0)1.0)
• StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koerilosssoftware. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of GebzeInstitute of Technology, Turkey.
• Major UpdatesIntegrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.
Adnalyis Method Options
Options Icons
Start Analyis
Input and Control Data Files
Integration of Integration of KOERILossKOERILoss and MapInfo and MapInfo GraphicsGraphics
ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTASSESSMENT PROJECT
Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity
Deterministic Seismic Hazard
GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTIONGRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION
Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution
Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.2 sec) values in units of g
Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g
Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings
Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings
Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings
GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)--JORDANJORDANEARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTEARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT
Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts
GeoGeo--Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m). Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).
Geological map of GAMGeological map of GAM
A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 GeoGeo--Grid layer Grid layer
Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1--3 Floors (One Building 3 Floors (One Building of 2 Floors )of 2 Floors )
0.80.5Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%)0.80.6Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%)2515 cmSlab ThicknessRib slap
RC solid slabSlab Type
50x25 cm30 x 50 cmExternal Beam Dimesions70x25 cm30 x 50 cmInternal Beam Dimensions 30 cmnoShear wall Thickness25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmExternal Column Dimesinon (Floor 2)25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmExternal Column Dimesinon (Floor 1)
25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmInternal Column Dimension (Floor 2)25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmInternal Column Dimension (Floor 1)3.0 -2.75 m3.5-3.0 mFloor Height4.0 m4.5 mY Grids Spaces4.0 m4.5 mX Grids Spaces400 Mpa275 MpaReinforced Steel Type
300 kg/cm2200 kg/cm2Concrete Type
After > 1985
Before <1985
Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111)
Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)
Capacity Curve ComputationsCapacity Curve Computations
Capacity Curve ( +X Direction)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Sd (m)
Sa (g
)
Capacity CurveLinearizedBilinear
Fragility Curve EstimationFragility Curve Estimation
. . Example of siteExample of site--dependent deterministic strong dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution ground motion distribution
ThankThank youyou