earth’s climate past and future second edition chapter 16 climate changes during the last 1000...
TRANSCRIPT
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• EARTH’S CLIMATE• PAST and FUTURE
• SECOND EDITION
• CHAPTER 16• Climate Changes During
• the Last 1000 Years
WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN
© 2008 W. H. Freeman and Company
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Major Concepts• Recent climate events
– Medieval warm period and the Little ice age• Sparse evidence, but don’t seem to be focused around North
Atlantic, not global events
• Ice Core records– Mountain glaciers and ice sheets
• No overall trends for last 1000 years• Significant warming of Peruvian ice sheet
• Tree Rings– Regional differences, but many show 20th Century warming
• Coral records– Seasonal records that can be used to show changes in El Nino– When put together as a combined record, show clear 20th
Century warming
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Major Concepts cont.
• Hockey Stick diagram of last 1000 years– Clear limitations– Noting error envelope really important
• Forcing factors– Orbital changes– Solar variability not as important as previously thought– Volcanic emission forcing only lasts a decade at most– Greenhouse gases may have played a role in cooling
after Medieval warm period and during little ice ages
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Medieval warm period ~1000 to 1300 AD; Little ice age ~1400-1900
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What is missing from this diagram?
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Mountain glaciers – clear annual banding
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Coring Mountain glaciers – not for the faint of heart!!
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Quelccaya ice cap, Peru, 1980
Do you see the Little ice age? The Medieval warm period?
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One of the most significant figures from this Chapter!!!
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Do you see the Little ice age? The Medieval warm period?
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Tree ring records best when trees at the edge of their range or comfort zone: Why?
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Tasmanian tree rings
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Combined (stacked) coral record
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The famous Hockey Stick Diagram!
95% confidence limit
Cooling from 1000 to 1800 AD? What do you think?
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Cause of small cooling?
• Orbital changes?– Decreasing summer insolation in high
northern latitudes due to both tilt and precession cycles
• Accounts for ~0.1C, or about half of cooling
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Solar Sun Spot cycle: 11 year cycle most prominent
Should this time be cooler or warmer?
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Volcanic emission forcing of climate
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Can these explain Little ice age or Medieval warm period?
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