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EUROPEAN CROSSROADS

INDIAAnish Kapoor,essence and absence by Bina Sarkar ElliasEUROPEA new political geographyby Mark LeonardINDIAThat’s Bollywood, darling!by Chandrahas ChoudhuryAFGHANISTANA meeting with Maria Bashir,Chief Prosecutor of Heratby Serena Grassia

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My EuropeEMMA BONINO writes for East

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1east european crossroads

Sabre-tooth tigers, tigers hidden in the jungle undergrowth, battle-worn tigers, wounded, bleeding tigers. The title of our dossier is atribute to the two vast continent-countries (the “dear enemies”) that

are currently dictating the turbulent beat of our new century. Two giants:the Indian heirs to the “children of midnight” and the new China thatbelongs to the voracious grandchildren of the peasant led by Mao Zedongon their ‘Long March’. Youth, growth, speed. By 2020, the average age of the Indian populationwill be 29, compared with China’s 37 years. Europeans, whose average ageat that stage will be 45, can only be considered old, if not on the verge ofbecoming ‘ancient’. While the fires may have stopped burning in the West,an explosive mixture is brewing in the Eastern furnace. Beijing is stillchasing the ideological spectre of harmony, but ‘contradiction’ is actuallythe fuel driving both Asian power houses. China is ‘condemned’ both to grow economically and stall its demographics.Its ‘one child’ policy is a dead end for the future. The new Chineseimperialism is gobbling up whole chunks of the African continent. The devastating corruption within the huge public sector is a menacingPolyphemus hanging over the new party leadership and the state. The India of new professions, advanced technologies, huge fortunes andBollywood splendour is also the India that insults women, where girls arestalked and raped and its lawless urban sprawls have no recourse to justice.And its future is undermined by a dilapidated child healthcare system, alow level of education and mass unemployment. The New Delhi daily,Tehelka, openly asks “Have we missed the last train for the 21st century?”.Huge contradictions and major challenges, compared to which all crisis-stricken Europe can muster is little more than a whimper. If the 26 millionunemployed Europeans all voted together, the ‘no job’ party would securealmost 50 seats in the European parliament. In Europe, the young becomeold without having ever lived. And yet there’s no backlash, no sign of acontradiction: just a ‘weak reasoning’ that feebly and ineffectually waversbetween austerity and growth. Listlessness versus fury, political parties onthe run and economists at loggerheads. As far back as 1923, Joseph Roth described Europe as “a sad continent,rapidly digging its own grave”. Even today, its lethargy and indifferenceresemble a form of death. As history and the tale of the two Oriental tigersteach us, contradiction alone is the painful lifeblood of the future.

Editorial Tigers of the Orientby Flavio Fusi

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1 Editorialby Flavio Fusi

4 Angela, Enrico and François’ Europe by Giuseppe Scognamiglio

6 BrussEls NotEBookby James Fontanella Khan

8 EUROPEAN UNIONEurope: rediscovering its federalist origins by Emma Bonino

11 EAst ForumA new political geographyby Mark LeonardDemos and Democracy by Sylvie Goulard

14 GERMANYGermany in the hot seatby Ulrike Guérot

16 RUSSIAPutin’s war against civil society by Lev Gudkov

19 RUSSIAGlobal Cosa Nostra by Cecilia Tosi

22 TRANSNISTRIAover the river and into utopiaby Danilo Elia

25 ICELANDlilliput growing again by Antonio Barbangelo

28 VATICAN CITYA stormy roman springby David Willey

30 PoiNts oF ViEwCrossed wires between rome and Delhiby Antonio Armellini

32 INDIA/EUthe risk of spoiling the curryby Francesco Guarascio

EUROPEAN CROSSROADSN.48

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east, european crossroadsyear IX · n. 48 · july/august 2013

EDITOR IN CHIEF Flavio FusiSCIENTIFIC COMMITTEEFederico Ghizzoni (PRESIDENT), Giuseppe Scognamiglio (VICE-PRESIDENT), Giuliano Amato, Seyda Canepa, Silvia Francescon,Giovanni Moro, Vincenzo Nigro, Fabrizio Onida,Lapo Pistelli, Lucrezia Reichlin, Renato Ruggiero,Danilo TainoCORRESPONDENT COMMITTEEAldo Bonomi, Massimo Cacciari, Ferruccio DeBortoli, Francesca Gori, Lev Gudkov, Ulrike Guérot, Wojciech Jagielski, Predrag Matvejevic,Moni Ovadia, Soli Özel, Sergio Romano, FarianSabahi, Gyorgy Schoepflin, Luigi Tomba EDITORIAL COMMITTEESilvia Francescon, Francesca Nenci, Fabrizia Falzetti,Emanuela Hernandez, Nicholas Hunt, Alba ChiaraLamberti, Barbara Modugno, Rinaldo Rinaldi, IlariaSbarigia, Silvia Settecasi

PUBLISHER

Europeye srlVia Gregorio VII, 368 - 00165 [email protected] - www.europeye.com BOARD OF DIRECTORS EUROPEYE

Giuseppe Scognamiglio (PRESIDENT), Rinaldo Rinaldi(DIRECTOR), Marco Valentini (DIRECTOR), Silvia Francescon(DIRECTOR), Fabrizia Falzetti (EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR)NEWSROOM

Fabrizia Falzetti, Emanuela Hernandez, Silvia Settecasi,Anna Piccarda [email protected] DIRECTOR

Claudio Patriarca - [email protected]

Ilaria Sbarigia - [email protected] LANGUAGE EDITOR

Nicholas HuntENGLISH LANGUAGE REVIEW COMMITTEE

Nicholas Hunt, Aminda Leigh, Natasha SenjanovicTRANSLATORS

Marina Astrologo, Darcy Di Mona, Guiomar Parada,Helen Farrell, Fiona Haig, Petra Hunt, AlessandraGuidoni, Rossella FerriWEBMASTER

Luca Pizzato - [email protected] AND ADVERTISING

Laura Baldi - [email protected] OFFICE

Gaia Carretta - [email protected] AGENCIES

Contrasto, ReutersSUBSCRIPTIONS AND BACK ISSUESSTAFF srl - Via Bodoni 24 - 20090 Buccinasco (MI)[email protected].+39 02 4570 2415PRINTERSArti Grafiche Fiorin - www.agfiorin.itNEWSAGENT DISTRIBUTIONMessaggerie Periodici - www.mepe.itBOOKSHOP DISTRIBUTIONJoo Distribuzione - www.joodistribuzione.itINTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONA.I.E. www.aie-mag.comENGLISH LANGUAGE DISTRIBUTION IN ITALYMessinter - www.messinter.itPublication registered with the Court of Milan n. 451 del 21-06-2004COVER PHOTO: XINHUA/EYEVINE/CONTRASTO

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94 out oF this worlDby Francesca Lancini

96 NotEs From isrAElthe old man won’t give upby Manuela Dviri

98 EGYPTBetween faith and revolutionby Luca Gambardella

100 IRANthe peace pipelineby Stella Morgana

102 AFGHANISTANA meeting with maria Bashirby Serena Grassia

104 PAKISTANthe democratic dream in the land of the Pureby Emanuele Confortin

106 TIBETBuddhism in the lookingglass of the westby Filippo Di Giacomo

108 JAPANstakanovlivesherenolongerby Marcia Aunt

110 JAPANthe hawk’s strategyby Priscilla Inzerilli

112 NORTH KOREAwho’s kim Jong-un and why’s he got it in for meby Eugenio Buzzetti

113 NORTH KOREAwar and peace cross bordersby Simone Pieranni

114 NORTH KOREAkorea seen from koreaby Thomas König

116 AUSTRALIAFar from ungrateful Europe; i’m offby Stefano Vergine

118 GUINEA-BISSAUwhen drugs buy out a nationby Tomaso Clavarino

121 FiGuriNG it outedited by Carlotta Magnanini

122 tEChNoloGy&rEsourCEsthe new industrial revolution by Ascanio Vitale

124 GrAPhiC NoVElNo comment by Mana Neyestani

126 who’s who

36 PORTFOLIOChina undergroundby�Francesco�Cocco

44 indiaThe giant in a mazeby�Claudia�astarita

46 indiaUnseen women picking a fightby�Kalpana�Sharma�

49 indiaThe Pink Sari Gangby�amana�Fontanella�Khan

52 CHAMPIONSMary Kom, punching across the borderby�Giulia�Sbarigia

54 indiaThe patent war with Big Pharmaby�Marina�Forti

56 indiaExterminating seeds put farmers on the rackby�antonio�Storto

59 indiaThe Baron of Bangaloreby�antonio�Sansonetti

62 indiaThat’s Bollywood, darling!by�Chandrahas�Choudhury

65 india/ChinaThe dearest of enemiesby�James�Fontanella�Khan

68 INNER VOICESThe blogger and the studentby�Peng�Jingchao�and�Jean�Yim

70 ChinaThe garden of harmonious censorshipby�Gabriele�Giovannini

72 ChinaGrow but don’t multiplyby�Sonia�Montrella

74 ChinaThe dragon’s clawsby�alessandra�Spalletta

76 ChinaTwixt dream and realityby�Zhang�Lĳia

79 ChinaGood Morning Africaby�Paolo�Borzatta

82 STATSThe tiger and the elephantedited�by�Europeye�Research�Team

CULTURAL NOTEBOOK 84 LiTERaTuRE

A thousand and one talesby�Mara�Matta

86 viSuaL aRTSAnish Kapoor: Essence and Absenceby�Bina�Sarkar�Ellias

88 ThEaTREChinese theatre experimentsby�Maria�Cristina�Pisciotta

90 FiLMCensorship in Chinaby�Boyd�van�hoeĳ

92 East booksedited�by�Claudia�astarita

93 Food&CuLTuREFrom the Bhagavad Gita to cooking showsby�Christine�Lutringer

DOSSIER: TIGERS OF THE ORIENT

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4 east european crossroads

EUROPEAN UNION

Whereas Germany is indicated as (canyou guess?) the most trustworthy na-tion by seven out of the eight coun-

tries polled (the main ones plus the euro-scepticCzech Republic), but also the most arrogant byfive of them. What’s more, since 2007, Italiansin favour of the EU have dropped from 78% to58%, Spaniards from 80% to 46% and theFrench from 62% to 41%. Strangely enough,the only country where support for the EU hasrisen over the last year is the Czech Republic.

A few weeks ago, Italian Prime Minister En-rico Letta formed a government comprising33% women (compared to an EU average of25%) that is backed by the youngest parliamentin the nation’s history, with an average age of48 (lower than the Bundestag’s 50 and the As-semblée Nationale’s 55). A few days after takingoffice, Letta flew to Berlin, Paris and Brusselsnot, he said, in the name of “foreign policy, butdomestic policy”, because we’re all in it to-gether in Europe and will stand or fall as one,with no exceptions.

This led to the felicitous idea of creatingshared policies to revitalise our economies afterthe longest recession ever experienced by theeurozone since the introduction of the currency(the economic results of the first quarter of 2013now make it six consecutive quarters in reces-

sion). We must rapidly introduce new actionsand measures to repair social cohesion in manycountries, agreeing upon initiatives to helpyoung people and reduce the staggering level ofunemployment (six million jobless in Spain, 3.2million in France and just under three millionin Italy). We must also design proposals that willfree up production resources currently beingwasted on industrial structures that often can-not compete on international markets and donot have enough financial backing.

At the same time, it is also essential to con-tinue with structural reforms, especially thosethat address our respective weaknesses (the so-called virtuous countries included), to guaran-tee long-term competitiveness. According to anIMF report, by 2050 the recent pension reformin Italy will lead to a 34% drop in pension ex-penditure compared to current values, whilespending in this area will increase in the UnitedKingdom (+13%), Germany (+30%), UnitedStates (+38%) and Canada (+43%).

by GiuseppeScognamiglio

Angela, Enricoand François’EuropeAccording to a recent survey entitled “The NewSick Man of Europe: the European Union”,conducted by the reliable Pew Research Centerin America, Italy is the least dependable countryin Europe according to the Germans, the Spanishand, wait for it, the Italians themselves!

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EUROPEAN UNION

In many European countries, as the Pew sur-vey points out, public opinion tends to blamethe euro for the current economic crisis. But ifwe try for once to forsake the apathetic throw-the-baby-out-with-the-bath-water attitude, we’llsoon see that the problem is actually not havingcombined the introduction of the euro with thefour unions – economic, banking, tax and polit-ical union – expressly mentioned by the ItalianPM in his government programme.

Economic union (and monetary union foreurozone countries) means an integration ofmarkets, and the EU is actually at the forefrontof this, even if the financial crisis has calledinto question some of the fundamental princi-ples of the single market, such as the freemovement of capital. The idea of creating aunified banking system is based on the needto break the vicious circle between countryrisk and bank risk, which is paralysing finan-cial institutions’ ability to support economicrecovery.

It would be importantto move towards a taxunion too, perhaps bygradually increasing theEU budget from the cur-rent rather miserly 1% ofEuropean GDP to 2-3%,which would allow theEuropean government toimplement counter-cycli-cal policies, as well asstand up to any so-calledasymmetrical economicshocks affecting specificregions or countries, ashas been happening inrecent years in periph-eral eurozone nations.Even the strict Germansseem to have come roundto the idea that if Italy de-

faults (Italian GDP accounts for 17% of the eu-rozone’s GDP, unlike Greece, which onlyrepresents 2.5%), not even the €750bn in theEuropean Stability Mechanism (to be used toassuage the effects of the crisis) will be enoughto bail out a public debt currently standing atover 2,000 billion euros. By the same token,there is now also growing awareness, espe-cially among industrialists, that the Germaneconomic model is, and continues to be, drivenby exports mainly destined for markets in Eu-ropean countries that are currently in deficit.

As for political union, if even François Hol-lande has highlighted it as an objective to beachieved within the next two years – thus un-dermining the infamous ‘Gallic grandeur’ – itcould mean we are much closer to the deci-sive steps required to create a United States ofEurope than many analysts claim. Politicalunion is the only way out of the crisis and to-wards restoring Europe to a leading role onthe world stage.

Y Berlin, 30 April2013. The ChancellorAngela Merkel andthe newly electedItalian Premier GianniLetta during theirpress conference. AsLetta subsequentlystated, his trip toBerlin, like the onesto Brussels and Paris,“were about domesticpolicy, not foreignpolicy”.

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WAR ON TAX HAVENSThe veil of secrecy that has protectedtax evaders for decades is slowly beinglifted leaving their bank accounts morevulnerable than ever. Brussels hasfinally managed to impose its will overEU member states reluctance to takepart in the war against tax havens.For more than three years AlgirdasŠemeta, the EU’s taxationcommissioner, tried to turn the fightagainst tax evasion into a priority for the27 countries forming the union. But EU leaders would simply not takehim seriously. Then, earlier this year as austerityprogrammes (adopted to reducecountries’ fiscal debt through a series ofpainful cost cutting measures andhigher taxes) grew increasinglyunpopular, finding alternative solutionsto bolster national coffers became ofthe essence.“These playgrounds of the rich andpowerful were largely hidden from thepublic’s view during the long financialboom,” wrote Jeffery Sachs, the eminentAmerican economist and director of theEarth Institute at Columbia University, inthe Financial Times. “In the new worldof austerity following the 2008 crash,

however, they are increasingly seen as acancer on the global financial systemthat must be excised.”Suddenly, Šemeta saw an opportunityto bring his anti-tax fraud plan back onthe table, sharing all banking detailsrelated to financial and incomerevenues of EU citizens across allcountries. Essentially, the EU wants togive tax authorities in any givenmember state the right to verify whetherits citizens are hiding their moneyillegally in another EU country.The Commissioner was aided evenfurther in his quest by a series of

political and business scandals thatbrought the war against tax cheatsfurther at the fore of the Europeanagenda.Tax avoiders came under increasingscrutiny after the InternationalConsortium of Investigative Journalismpublished the names of thousands oftax cheats around the world. The CIJ’s ‘leaks’ unmasked the namesof 130,000 individuals hiding cash intax havens and revealed that as muchas $31,000 billion, the equivalent ofthe US and Japanese economiescombined, were being hidden in taxhavens.The drive for greater transparency wasalso fuelled by the explosiveadmission by Jérôme Cahuzac, France’snow former budget minister, that he hadlied about holding €600,000 in a Swissaccount opened 20 years ago.Finally, news that severalmultinationals such as Starbucks,Amazon and Google paid close to no

Brussels Notebook by James Fontanella Khan

EUROPE

Algirdas Semeta is aLithuanian economist

appointed EuropeanCommissioner for Taxationand Customs Union, Auditand Anti-Fraud in 2009.Born in Vilnius, he

graduated in 1985 from theEconomic Cybernetics andFinance Faculty of VilniusUniversity with a degree ineconomics and maths.Between 2008 and 2009 hewas Lithuania’s Finance

Minister, a post he had heldten years earlier betweenFebruary 1997 and June1999. He has always workedas a civil servant and is amember of the EuropeanPeople’s Party (EPP).

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taxes in EU countries where most oftheir revenues were being generatedangered the public opinion. Especiallyin the UK, prime minister DavidCameron attacked Starbucks for havingpaid pretty much zero taxes:“Companies need to wake up and smellthe coffee, because the customers whobuy from them have had enough.”Mr Cameron contested the legality ofaggressive tax planning schemes, whichentail shifting profits from high taxationregimes to lower ones, used bymultinationals, as it erodes vastportions of a country’s tax revenues.As part of the UK’s commitment to theanti-tax fraud campaign Cameronannounced that Britain’s OverseasTerritories would also partly be liftingbanking secrecy rules.All this pushed Europe’s largestcountries, including Italy, Spain,Germany, France and the UK to form acoalition at the European level toconvince all member states to uniteforces against tax fraudsters.Luxembourg and Austria havetraditionally been opposed to sharingfinancial information on individualswith other EU states but given thepressure coming from the bigger boysthey are likely to conform soon.The tide has changed. It is unclear howfast things will change but the dayswhen rich people and companies easilyshifted cash from one place to anotherwithout getting caught are over. Taxhavens, obviously, will continue toexist, but it will be much harder toreach them.

EURO CITIZENSHIP PUB QUIZHow many EU citizens live in an EUmember states outside their country oforigin? An Erasmus student boozing inSalamanca and spending every second

weekend in either Paris, London orBerlin (thanks to Ryanair) saysconfidently: “At least 50 per cent but I’mbeing conservative”. The Londonbanker, a guy who thinks he has thepulse of the global economy in hispocket, laughs out loud at the‘guestimate’ made by the student andsays: “it’s more like 20 per cent, tops 25per cent”. Then you ask a workerFrance’s Lille he answers: “I don’t knowanybody living abroad, so I’d say 2 or 3per cent.” Guess who is the winner? No,it’s the working class bloke. Yes, itmight come as a shock but the numberof people who move for long periods toanother EU country are very small. To beexact: 13.6m out of more than 500m.Brussels is now determined to changethis by making it easier for anybody to

move in search for work, especiallyduring tough times of economicstagnation in certain regions of thebloc. As part of an EU citizenshipproposal Viviane Reding, EUcommissioner for justice, proposed thatjobseekers should receiveunemployment benefits for 6 instead ofjust 3 months from their home countrywhile scouting for work abroad; citizensshould be allowed to vote in their homecountries when abroad; a common EUdocuments should be made readilyavailable and a unified EU disabilitycard should be granted.These are small steps. Some will beopposed by some more conservativecountries (see UK and France) butoverall they should go down well. Afterall in order to build a truly united Europegreater mobility is needed.

A BANK ACCOUNT FOR ALL!If the Commission’s new effort tobolster EU citizenship convinces you toleave your home country and settle inanother member state you’ll soon findout that setting up a new bank accountis a nightmare. But luckily this mightchange too! Michel Barnier, the eclecticFrench EU commissioner for financialservices, has made it his personalmission to provide every citizen in theEU with a bank account. At the momentthere are 56m people above the age of15 that apparently prefer their mattressto the vaults of European banks. Why?Well, often banks are not thatwelcoming and fees make it impossiblefor poorer individuals to open anaccount. Under a new plan, eachgovernment will have to guarantee itscitizens at least one account in a bankwhere they can save their money,irrespective of their financialconditions. Banking for all!

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Even a committed believer in Europesuch as myself has a hard time approv-ing of the Europe we have today. If Eu-

rope had listened more carefully to the warn-ings and suggestions launched from all sidesin recent years, we wouldn’t be in our currentposition, with anti-European and populist ten-dencies threatening the core tenets of integra-tion and coexistence.

And yet, there are still many voices in theworld clamouring for “more Europe”. Everyday we see concrete proof of how the EU isstill a powerful catalyst, attracting neighbour-ing countries to the east and south, with aview to future integration. But Europe’s appealto its own citizens is another matter, and thedream of its founding fathers seems to be grad-ually but inexorably evaporating. Too often,the European Union appears too self-involvedcompared to the fast-moving world around it.And it is increasingly associated with the im-position of austerity, which can lead to reces-sion, unemployment and high levels of socialtension if not combined with appropriate eco-nomic policies to spur growth.

One thing is clear: actions to safeguard thefundamental freedoms of democratic statescannot rely exclusively on ethical and civilprinciples; they must also spring from theneed to guarantee the necessary security fordevelopment, economic exchanges and invest-ment. We have known for some time now thatthe violation of fundamental rights goes hand-

in-hand with increased risks for businesses. However, in order to be able to rebut accu-

sations of applying double standards, it is im-portant to ensure coherence between theexternal and internal dimensions of Europe. Acivil country is judged on its laws but also on itsability to respect and enforce them. As Italianswe cannot ignore the huge volume of legalcases pending against Italy before the EuropeanCourt of Human Rights and the fact that we areone of the countries with the highest numberof convictions. Most of these cases concern ex-cessive trial length and overcrowded prisons.

We must therefore make determined effortsto contrast these ‘serial’ violations: our interna-tional credibility is at stake. How can we preachrespect for universal values abroad if we’reamong the countries with the longest rap sheetfrom the European Court of Human Rights?After all, the trouble we’re encountering in at-tracting foreign investments is certainly linkedto our inability to put our own house in order.How many foreign investors have ruled outItaly due to the length of its civil trials? Howmany have been deterred by legal ambiguitiesand lack of transparency?

So, it is in our own best interests to react toall these trends. In order to defend Europe, andits fundamental values, we need to reclaim theoriginal sense of the European project, updat-ing it to meet the challenges posed by the early21st century. Yet no solution will be crediblewithout a political dimension that fully em-

by Emma BoninoItalian ForeignMinister

Europe: rediscovering its federalist originsFor the last sixty years Europe has enabled its inhabitants to live in relative peace,freedom and prosperity. No individual Member State on its own would have had thenecessary means to offer citizens the same level of comfort, security and stability.This does not detract from the fact that, today, Europe’s limits are plain for all to see.

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braces the entire Eu-ropean architecture.We therefore need afederal solution.

My support for apro spective UnitedStates of Europe is notdriven by ideology,but by a careful as-sessment of costs andbenefits. I know of noalternative to federal-ism that might allow500 million people –from different nations,cultures, religions andspeaking a multitudeof languages – to livetogether in freedomwhile maintainingtheir diversity. Espe-cially in terms of in-stitutions’ efficacy in answering citizens’ de-mands for wellbeing and security and the needto provide a common sense of belonging withina ‘viable’ model that must continue to be inclu-sive, or crumble. If anyone knows of a bettersystem, please speak up.

A couple of years ago I proposed a form of‘light federalism’, an institutional model that re-quires no more than 5% of Europe’s GDP tofund basic governmental functions like foreignpolicy and security, scientific research andmajor infrastructure networks. Unfortunately,the majority of European governments are re-luctant to go down this route, and the negativeconsequences of this indecision are clear to see:European-level initiatives remain fragmentedand ineffective, resources are wasted and Eu-rope risks becoming increasingly irrelevant.

2014 marks the centenary of the outbreakof the First World War. We must not forgetwhat happened to European countries when

nationalism and demagoguery prevailed. If Eu-rope does not resolve the problems caused bythe recession/populism dichotomy, we risklosing everything we have achieved so far. TheEuropean Parliamentary elections in 2014 aretherefore a crucial test: if we want to avoidpopulist parties gaining extensive support, wemust put federal Europe at the heart of theelection campaign.

If we embrace a new vision that fully in-volves our citizens and our governments, wecan trigger a new phase of reconstruction andgrowth, fostering the democratic legitimacyof the European project and the EU’s role asa global player. For Italy – which takes overthe rotating presidency of the EU in the sec-ond half of 2014 – this will mean the chanceto make its voice heard and return to being afull-fledged protagonist in the process of Eu-ropean integration, in line with its natural his-torical vocation.

\ “I don’t know ofany alternativesystem that couldhope to replacefederalism and stillenable 500 millionpeople of differentnationalities, differentcultures, religions andlanguages, to livetogether freely whilepreserving theirdiversity”.

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P R O G R A M 8.00 Registration

8.40 Opening remarks

Giuseppe Vita Chairman, UniCredit

8.50 Key notes addressEmma Bonino Minister of Foreign A�airs

9.10 More or less Europe? The Europe we needGuy Verhofstadt Member, European Parliament and President, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group (ALDE)) Klaus Vàclav Former Czech Republic President

Moderated by Lapo Pistelli Deputy Minister of Foreign A�airs

9.50 EU citizenship and democratic legitimacy: How to build a truly European societySylvie Goulard Member, European Parliament Mark Leonard Director, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)Franco Debenedetti President, Bruno Leoni InstituteGiuliano Amato President, International Advisory Board of UniCredi

Moderated by Giovanni Moro President, Fondaca

11.20 Co�ee break

11.30 Europe’s future: moving towards a stronger economic and monetary unionDaniel Gros Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)Romano Prodi Chairman of the Foundation for World Wide Cooperation, Former President of the EU Commission and Prime Minister of ItalyFederico Ghizzoni CEO, UniCredit Dora Bakoyannis Member, Greek Parliament Emma Marcegaglia CEO, Marcegaglia Group

Moderated by Lucrezia Reichlin Full Professor and Director Department of Economics, London Business School

13.00 Closing remarksEnrico Letta Prime Minister (to be con�rmed)

EU CITIZENSHIP, DEMOCRATIC

LEGITIMACY AND AN ECONOMIC UNION:

Defining the Policy Agenda to Build a Stronger Future for the European Union

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Policy Studies (CEPS)R Cooperation, Former President of the EU Commission and Prime Minister of ItalyF

Firstly, at the level of elites: estab-lished political forces across thecontinent have been placed under

enormous pressure by the crisis, and arebeing replaced by new political leaderswithin the established parties or populistmovements that are increasingly definingthemselves around the crisis. It is a par-adox of the crisis that the governing elitesof Europe’s nations are probably the mostpro-European in history, but the leastable to win support for the integrationEurope needs. Since the beginning of thecrisis, trust in the EU has fallen from +10to -22 in France, from +20 to -29 pointsin Germany, from +30 to -22 points inItaly, from +42 to -52 points in Spain, from+50 to +6 points in Poland and from -13to -49 points in the UK. What is strikingis that everyone in the EU has lost faithin the project: both creditors and debtors,would-be members and ‘opt-outs’. As aresult, many established parties are un-der the political assault from such ‘newkids on the block’ as the Freedom Partyin the Netherlands, the True Finns Party,the Danish People’s Party, the UK Inde-pendence Party or Italy’s Five Star Move-ment. Their response has often been to

progressively adopt their own anti-Euro-pean positions and postures, and evencriticise their own coalition governmentsfor being excessively pro-European.

The second division is between theperiphery and the core. To be in or outof various cooperative frames seems nolonger a matter of sovereign choice, butstems from various vulnerabilities anddiscriminatory policies. The term “pe-riphery”, applied to fully-fledged mem-ber states of the EU, is now in frequentuse in political discourse, generatingfear and distrust. The EU has de facto as-sumed a role of executioner of the cred-itor states’ blueprint undermining theposition of pro-European politicians inthe debtor states – but it has failed to re-assure citizens in creditor states thattheir money will be well spent. There aremajor anxieties outside the Eurozonewith new member states such as Polandfearing that the emerging Europe of twoor more speeds will relegate it to a pe-ripheral status. They view plans to cre-ate a separate eurozone budget asdepriving them of access to EU re-sources, while separate meetings of eu-rozone MEPs would deny them the

access to key decisions. Meanwhile,some political countries like the UK riskmarginalising themselves with chimeri-cal campaigns for a ‘renegotiation’ oftheir position within the EU.

The third dimension is about fracturingthe core. Although the new power centrehas shifted from Brussels to Berlin thishas not necessarily resulted in a more co-herent, let alone hierarchical, system ofgovernance. A potentially unbridgeablegap has emerged between Paris andBerlin. Germany has been seen by manyas the key player, but Germany feelsmore like a victim of other states’ mis-conduct than as a leader imposing its willon the others. In France, President Hol-lande seems convinced that no Europeantreaty reform could currently formulatedthat would pass the test of a referendumin France, and so has resisted Germanpressures towards it. Instead, the presi-dent is advocating what he calls “integra-tion solidaire”, arguing that the wayforward for the EU must be a gradualprocess of deeper political, economicand social integration, where new formsof supranational solidarity – such as Eu-robonds – are agreed on first followed bywith institutional changes to managethem. This is the opposite of the vision ofMrs. Merkel, who insists that the ordershould be reversed. Meanwhile, themost crucial decisions over the past twoyears have been taken with little inputfrom the European institutions.

This leads to a fourth division in Eu-rope. Instead of a common shared visionfor European integration, there is a clashemerging between four different politicalprojects of European integration. Thefirst project is the euro, where leadersare rightly exploring how to create an in-tegrated banking union, fiscal consolida-

East Forum A new political geographyThe euro crisis is reshaping politics across Europe – andcreating a widening gulf between the European project andits citizens. Established political parties are fighting fortheir lives; countries that thought of themselves asEuropean in every respect are finding themselves sidelined.We are witnessing the emergence of a new politicalgeography for the European Union. And this is affecting atleast four different aspects of the European project.

by Mark Leonard

EAST FORUM

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tion, and measures to legitimate pooledpolicy decisions. The second project isthe single market, which, as SebastianDullien has argued, could be an unwit-ting casualty of efforts to save the euro-zone. A full eurozone breakup wouldshatter the euro, while a great leap to-ward political union could see shrinkageof the single market, as countries suchas the UK or Sweden withdraw from theheart of Europe. Even muddling throughthe crisis seems likely to diminish thedepth of the single market, as banks inthe eurozone withdraw from trans-bor-der business, and spreads in borrowingrates force companies to focus on do-mestic markets. The third project, the

quest to pacify Europe through enlarge-ment and a neighbourhood policy basedon the idea of transforming unstableneighbours through open markets andporous borders, is also a casualty of aus-terity and the inward-looking politics ofthe crisis. The fourth project is the ideaof a global Europe, where Europeancountries pool their collective economic,diplomatic and military assets to take aplace in the cockpit of global affairsrather than simply responding to deci-sions taken in Washington and Beijing.This would obviously be much more dif-ficult to realise if the drive for deeperintegration in the eurozone goes hand-in-hand with the myopic politics of self-

marginalisation thatis being pursued bythe current Britishgovernment.

Whereas in the pastpeople talked about amulti-speed or even amulti-tier Europe – to-day there seem to betrade-offs betweendifferent visions. Itmay be possible toavoid progress on oneproject being at theexpense of another,but in order to do thatthere needs to be ashared determinationto that and a conti-nent-wide debateabout how to reinventEurope for a new gen-eration. A reinventedEuropean project willneed to focus on theproblems that are im-portant for ordinary

citizens rather than for the elites workingwithin the Brussels bubble. Europeanleaders will also need to design a struc-ture for the whole of Europe rather thanjust the eurozone – showing how the nec-essary process of integration for the eu-rozone can be made compatible with theother European visions of a continent-sized single market, a pacified neigh-bourhood, and a European pole in amulti-polar world. But having this kind ofconversation will require a revolution inthe approach of Europe’s leaders – theywill need to engage in political debatesabout the future of their continent, ratherthan taking refuge in the technical detailsof institutional reform.

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For those opposed to a united Europe,there is no such thing as the people,or ‘the demos’. Therefore it is impos-

sible to imagine an overarching democracybeyond sovereign states.

The historical truth is different. InAthens, belonging to a pre-existing demoswas not a justification for exercising dem-ocratic privileges, it was the reverse: it wascommonly-shared decisions that gave riseto a new demos. It was thanks to a far-sighted politician in the sixth century BC,Cleisthenes, who started to free Athenianpolitics from family ties, previously con-sidered as ‘natural’, to finally create a newpeople. Of course it’s no surprise that‘tribal’ instincts were opposed to theemergence of an open society. In a rapidlychanging world, however, it is not possibleto continue viewing the people as an un-changing entity, an eternally fixed point.As the French historian Pierre Rosanvallonwrites, in the collective interest, to exclude“a human grouping that is only contem-plated in terms of a given homogeneity(...) is not only undemocratic but is alsonot even political... Compared to the con-cept of identity, the notion of communityis generally reduced to a catalogue of nos-talgia and clichés. (...) This is how it be-comes passive, conservative, unable toenlighten a future and give meaning to anew world”.

Viewing identity as a given is alsostrange when considering the history of Eu-rope. “The majority of national histories”,wrote Emmanuel Berl, a French historianfrom the last century, “are mythologies,which were bestowed with an incrediblelyrical power and an extraordinarily effec-tive emotional appeal in the 19th century.Not only did they serve to glorify the nationbut also to justify and rekindle rivalry be-tween countries (...)”.

Nationalists are convinced that Europeis an “artificial” entity. As if our nationalhistories were not literally teeming withlies and staged events. It’s not just theItalians who were ‘made’: the French andGerman nations also emerged thanks topropaganda peddled in schools and in thearmy. The purpose of two books like Cuore[Heart] by Edmondo De Amicis and Le tourde France par deux enfants by AugustineFouillée (published under the pseudonymof G. Bruno), both published in the 1870s,was very similar.

Since we live in this context, we are con-vinced it will be difficult to ‘build’ Europe.In actual fact it is difficult to dismantle theenduring myths and the occasional short-sighted prejudice that blinds us to the ex-istence of these myths. To quote Berlagain, to create Europe “there is no needto hide the truth, you just need to say itout loud”. National boundaries have not

put paid to this continent’s great adven-tures, like the construction of the abbeys,the splendours of gothic cathedrals, theProtestant Reformation and the baroqueexcesses of the Counter-Reformation.

It does not make much sense to sepa-rate Flemish from Italian painting whenthey mutually stimulated each other. An-tonello da Messina and Jan Van Eyckwould have found it strange, to say theleast. At the time of the French Enlighten-ment, exchanges between philosophersknew no national boundaries.

In any case, there is a very simple rea-son that should push the European peopletowards union: the euro. If we want tokeep the single currency, if it is true thatthis currency necessitates convergent eco-nomic, social, fiscal and budgetary poli-cies, then these areas of interest must alsocomply with democratic needs.

The Council of Europe is providing clearfactual evidence that, without a demo-cratic debate about the crucial choices tobe made, without the management teambeing held accountable before a parlia-ment, Europe cannot be effective and willlose legitimacy over time. The emergencyof the financial crisis meant quick deci-sions had to be taken. But one cannot han-dle a social crisis over the long term, asEU Member States are trying to do.

If nothing happens in European gover-nance, not only does Europe risk destruc-tion, but national democracies would alsobe in danger too. Asking citizens to electa national-level government where deci-sions are no longer taken and not allowingthem to elect those making the real deci-sions (in this case the European Commis-sion) can only generate frustration andpopulism.

I think Europe’s number one challengeis not economic, but political.


Demos and DemocracyIs it worth dreaming of a European democracy? Is there such a thing as the ‘European people’? And if not, how come we talkabout democracy without unity? The answers to these highlylegitimate questions are often superficial.by Sylvie Goulard European MP (ALDE group, France)

EAST FORUM



GERMANY

The next German national elections on22nd September 2013 could trigger an-other ‘all-eyes-on-Germany’ event. These

elections are likely to shape Europe’s future,they will be pro or against Merkel, and will beviewed as a vote on austerity vs. growth. Theworld will be watching them with one questionin mind: will Germany change its European pol-icy? Will it become a little less ideological aboutthe Bundesbank and inflation, a little more ac-commodating of the interests of its Europeanpartners? If Europe had a vote in these elections,Merkel would stand little chance of being re-elected. However, only Germans can vote inwhat could de facto be considered as the firstEuropean elections. And the point is thatroughly 70% of Germans – never severely hitby the crisis – are in favour of Angela Merkel. Ithas been jokingly remarked that Germanswould love to have a red-green policy run byMerkel. As weird as it may seem, for GermansMerkel is one thing, German policy is somethingelse. So the outcome of the elections is extremelyhard to predict – and many in Europe certainlyoverestimate the likelihood that Merkel mightbe voted out.

German citizens have been living in a main-stream media bubble which has nurtured apretty superficial account of the Euro-crisis,namely that it’s mainly a problem of an over-spending South – an argument that deliberatelyoverlooks the interconnection between Euro-

pean economies and the German co-responsi-bility for the – disastrous – economic situationin Europe as a whole. If all countries, so the ar-gument runs, behaved like Germany and carriedout the same reforms, they’d all be as well off asGermany. A great part of Angela Merkel’s popu-larity is built on this German success story, with70% of Germans approving her crisis manage-ment and her highly pragmatic stance.

The figures seem to prove Germany right:Germany is the only country in the EU withits public finances in the black; where con-sumer behaviour and export figures show apositive trend and where the crisis seems tohave had the least impact. Germans in actualfact see themselves more as victims of the cur-rent crisis management in the sense that theyare now having to fork out for the other coun-tries, which didn’t do their ‘reform homework’.So the public protests in Germany against con-tinued bail-out packages for Greece or Cyprus,or the necessity to enter a so-called ‘transfer’union are hardly surprising.

Against this backdrop, the ‘Alternative fürDeutschland’ anti-Euro party was launched backin April. Yet populism hasn’t curried much favourin Germany so far: the main political parties allsupport the euro and back pro-European pro-grammes. Recent polls have shown that roughly2/3 of Germans wants to stay with the Euro.And even though a survey in March this yearhas it that 26% of Germans might consider votingfor the Eurosceptic party in September, at best itwill obtain 2% of the votes. Hence, even if thisnew protest party does not clear the 5% hurdlein the forthcoming elections, it may change theelectoral outcome by stealing some 2-3% fromthe current conservative-liberal majority.

In the Berlin chat-rooms, the most likely out-come is a grand coalition, meaning the conser-vative CDU governing with the Social-Democ-rats (SPD), as was the case between 2002 and2005. Although the SPD’s candidate for chan-

by Ulrike Guérot

Germany in the hot seatAll eyes in Europe are on the next German generalelections. The vote scheduled for the 22nd ofSeptember may represent a key event for the futureof the European Union, like the construction(in 1961) and fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

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cellor has announced he will notgovern with Merkel, and the factthat the SPD got little change outof the last ‘grand coalition’, itcould happen – but outside ofGermany they seem to be over-playing this hand. For example,many French Socialists claimthat if only the SPD were in theGerman government, its policyon Europe might change. Trueto a point: a grand coalitionwould surely put more emphasison social Europe; and the SPD’selection program does not com-pletely rule out debt mutualisa-tion. Plus, a grand coalitionmight be able to secure the 2/3majority required for constitu-tional change essential to introduce a bankingunion or more. So a grand coalition might notbe the worst option for Germany. However, toexpect it to lead to a radical shift of Germaneconomic policy away from its export focus, itsemphasis on price stability or its insisting onboth structural reforms and sound public fi-nances, is a recipe for disappointment.

A more interesting exercise is consideringthe chances of other outcomes. Everybody onthe Green and on the CDU side still vigorouslyrules out a conservative-green coalition – thoughmany have been tacitly or openly dreaming ofcombing the powerful conservative (industrial)establishment with Germany’s progressiveforces. The tax increases recently proposed bythe Green party have certainly sent shiversdown CDU voters’ spines. Furthermore, thearithmetic of German elections is a complicatedone due to the two vote system– one for thecandidate, the other for the party.

Plus, the electoral outcome largely dependson the performance of the smaller parties andwhether they manage to overcome the 5% hur-

dle: the Liberals (FDP); the internet-party Pi-rates, very ‘hipster’ still some months ago whenearning more than 10% in the local electionsof Berlin, but virtually dismantled since then;the ‘Left’ – they could end up with a king-maker role. A this stage, nothing can definitelybe ruled out: not a black-green coalition(though highly unlikely); nor an ‘Ampel’ coali-tion, meaning the SPD governing together withthe Greens and the Liberals, often good for realsurprises and possibly prepared to sell theirsoul to stay in government.

The safest bet seems to be that the big tankerGermany will continue to cruise through theEuropean storm after the elections, accommo-dating a little, but not much. Yes, many Germanshave noticed the social uprisings in the South;many have understood that their government’spolicy has come under European pressure. No-body in Germany can ignore the posting ofHitler effigies in Greece or elsewhere and itsgetting a little uncomfortable. Nevertheless, pol-itics in Germany is a long tranquil river, notabout revolutions at all.

\ The elections inGermany in Septemberwill capture theattention of the wholeof Europe. Today, 70%of the Germanpopulation approvesAngela Merkel’s crisismanagement and herpragmatic stance.

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In a climate of growing discontent with thegovernment, stagnation and the economiccrisis, the numerous corruption scandals

involving high-ranking officials that havecome to light in recent months have seemedparticularly intolerable. Civil society has re-acted to the growing social and economic pres-sures by reporting a whole range of abuses ofpower, crimes and tax evasion to the press andon the Internet; as well as the dubious originsof assets belonging to influential members ofparliament, party officials and politicians; andfalse academic and scientific credentials,which Russian bureaucrats love to flaunt.

In the last year, articles have been pub-lished virtually every day about criminal trialsand investigations launched by the ProsecutorGeneral’s Office against corrupt officialsworking within various ministries and publicinstitutions. The most sensational cases haveincluded enquiries into misappropriation andcorruption in the Ministries of Defence, Agri-culture, Education and Health as well as in theaerospace industry and the Prosecutor Gen-eral’s Office itself.

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by Lev Gudkov

Putin’s waragainst civilsocietyThe Kremlin’s initial reaction to the protest ralliesagainst electoral rigging in December 2011 vergedon panic. The Putin Administration almostimmediately said that it was willing to makeconcessions, but in actual fact the changes madeto the electoral law were merely cosmetic.

Z Two activists kissduring an unauthoriseddemonstration for gayand lesbian rights inSaint Petersburg.

t After the proteststhat followed Putin’sthird election aspresident, the Dumaapproved laws thatclearly curtail freedomof assembly andassociation.

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to scandals. As has the posthumous trial ofSergei Magnitsky, the lawyer killed in prisonafter blowing the whistle on high-ranking offi-cials and judges. Opinion polls taken regularlysince the autumn of 2011 show that confi-dence in the regime has begun a steep andseeming irreversible decline.

The administration has responded not onlyby instinctively reinforcing bureaucratic cohe-sion at various levels, from investigating mag-istrates to top state officials, it has alsotoughened policies regarding independentmovements and organizations and passedmeasures aimed at suppressing all criticism. Inthe wake of the imposing protest rallies againstVladimir Putin’s election to a third presidentialterm, the Duma hurriedly approved a dozen orso slapdash, contradictory and legally ques-tionable laws, which expressly restrict the free-doms of assembly and association.

Laws on extremist activity and national se-curity are part of this bundle – and havehelped to broaden and loosen the concepts of‘extremism’ and ‘threat to national interest’ –as is a defamation law, which enables prose-cution of anyone publicly criticising officials,politicians or members of parliament. Thiswas followed by the anti-Magnitsky law (in re-sponse to the Magnitsky Act approved in theUSA and other countries), which equates non-profit organizations involved in internationalscientific or humanitarian projects to “foreignagents”; plus a few changes to the laws govern-ing the press that tightened control over themass media and Internet.

The Duma and the president’s “asymmetric”response (according to Russian diplomats) toAmerican measures taken against officialsguilty of corruption and human rights viola-tions involved a ban on foreigners adoptingRussian orphans and a series of homophobicmeasures such as the so-called ban on ‘gaypropaganda’. The wave of anti-Americanism

provoked by the propaganda, which has in-stilled in Russians the idea that childrenadopted by American parents are mistreatedand sexually abused, used for organ transplantsand even killed with impunity, was intended toplay down the significance of anti-corruptionrestrictions for Russian officials.

The new laws triggered a wide-reachingcampaign of repression against civil organiza-tions. Last summer, numerous Russianbranches of US organizations (such as USAID)and international humanitarian foundations(including George Soros’ Open Society and theFord Foundation) were shut down or ceasedactivities. ‘Inspections’ of non-profit organiza-tions ordered by Putin and begun in Februaryand March were in clear violation of the Con-stitution, Russian legislation and the Code ofCivil Procedure.

To date, these investigations – conducted byofficials from the Prosecutor General’s Office,Ministry of Justice, Federal Tax Service, anti-extremist police department and, at times, eventhe Public Health Office and the fire depart-ment – have concerned over 650 non-govern-ment organizations in more than 50 Russianregions. Based on the work carried out by thecommissions, the Prosecutor General’s Officeissued rulings calling the organizations “foreignagents” and warning them not to engage in po-litical activities. Colossal fines have been im-posed on all who have refused to admit to being“spies and subversive elements”, which effec-tively forces the closure of all activities.

The non-profit organizations carry out theiractivities in all fields of civil society: from envi-ronmental protection to treating disabled andsick children, sociological analysis, scientific re-search, publishing, civil rights defence and theprotection of historical records, including thedatabase of the victims of Stalin’s reign of terror(compiled by the international human rightsgroup Memorial). Also included are analytical



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think tanks, consumer protection or-ganisations, the Committees of Sol-diers’ Mothers of Russia (a network ofregional organizations against abuseand torture in the military), women’sorganizations and many others.

In addition to Putin’s personalthirst for revenge (the day after hewas sworn in he reportedly said,“They ruined my celebrations, I’llruin their lives”), this offensivestems from the desire to crush all in-dependent associations and to‘purge’ organisations that could be-come channels of Western influ-ence, spreading democracy andintroducing a controlling elementover the authoritarian regime.

However, the Russian populationis under no illusion as to the purposeof these operations. In spite of thecensorship and propaganda, thebare-faced lies and disrepute castupon the opposition, the majority ofpeople polled for the surveys carriedout at regular intervals by the Le -vada Centre believe that the purposeof these actions is to silence the op-position, isolate and imprison itsleaders, and stem the spread of in-formation about crimes and powerabuses, in order to reinstate a closedregime in the country and a climateakin to that of a ‘besieged fortress’.However, far from achieving the ex-pected results, these actions only

seem to delegitimize the regime allthat much quicker.

Putin’s United Russia party, whichwon the December 2011 elections, isnow regarded by most Russians (51%)as “a party of cheats and thieves”. So-ciety views the corruption scandalsas a sign of the state’s total decline (ac-cording to 80% of people polled inMarch). Nor have matters beenhelped by the homophobic campaignpromoted by members of parliamentin league with the hierarchy of Rus -sian Orthodox Church, or the aggres-sive anti-Western rhetoric thatprovokes isolationist and conserva-tive attitudes in the provinces and insociety as a whole.

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According to ‘ancient’ rules hewn bycriminals in the prisons and gulags ofthe Soviet Union, the mafia’s new lead-

ership is chosen at a skhodka, a plenary meet-ing of the highest ranking bosses, the vor-v-za-kone (thieves-in-law). Yet ever since Usoyan’sdeath, the meetings have failed to yield results,in part because the list of participants is con-tinually changing.

Indeed, in today’s mafia it’s hard to deter-mine who rightfully belongs to the criminalelite. Until the early 1990s, the vor coronationhad to be held in prison, and the elders onlyconferred the status on the ‘worthiest’: thosewho showed the greatest resistance to pain,fiercest hatred of the police and total contemptfor all things legal.

Then with democracy came deregulation.The mobsters were free to do business aboveground and many young men started buyingvor positions without ever having set foot inprison. Nowadays, every criminal clan hasthese second-generation members, whom rivalgangs use to discredit their enemies. Which iswhy the skhodka often resemble Partisanmeetings where one boss tries to seize powerfrom another, sometimes even spiralling intobloody shoot-outs between the guests.

To avoid bloodshed or (admittedly rare) po-lice raids, in recent years the vor have been or-ganising their meetings abroad, taking advan-

tage of the substantial criminal network they’vebuilt up worldwide. In February, for example, abig meeting was held in Athens, where a big-shot boss, Lasha (“Rustav”) Shushanashvili, wasserving time. Shushanashvili was not only ableto organise the meeting from jail (where it ap-pears they’ve also built him a swimming pooland a gym), but he also assured the participa-tion of his godfather of choice.

In fact, according to Spanish press reports,Georgian gangsterZajhar Kalashov (known asShakro Jr.) took part in the meeting by videoconference call from a prison in Teixeira, Gali-cia, and was elected to lead the organisation.His fellow vor chose him because they thoughthe’d be coming home after being releasedfrom jail by this summer. But it seems thatKalashov would rather stay in Spain thanserve the 18-year prison sentence awaitinghim in Georgia.

For now, Kalashov wields his power bymasterminding clashes between rival groups,backing clans with the greatest chance of win-ning. Only it’s not easy to predict the victornow that the cards have been shuffled withUsoyan’s death. Before, there was only the his-toric rivalry between Usoyan and Tarel(“Taro”) Oniani of Georgia, two heavyweightmafia bosses worth $2 billion (€1.5 Bln) each.Today, however, war has broken out amongUsoyan’s heirs.

The power struggle actually began in 2010,when Oniani’s men tried to kill Usoyan. Hesurvived but was wounded and decided not totake any more chances. Holed up at home,communicating with the outside world via his30 mobile phones, he had no choice but to del-egate public relations to his two most trustedhenchmen: Dmitry (“Miron”) Chanturia andEduard (“Osetrina”) Asatryan. It was the be-ginning of the end.

In December 2010 a skhodka was convenedin Greece, but neither Usoyan nor Oniani at-

by Cecilia Tosi

Global Cosa NostraEver since Grandpa died, the family has been atwar. The godfathers of organised crime in Russiaare locked in a ferocious battle to fill the powervacuum left by Aslan Usoyan, a.k.a. GrandpaKhasan, the boss of bosses shot dead in aMoscow restaurant in mid-January.

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tended. The other bosses solved numerousproblems on their own and labelled the meet-ing a success precisely due to the very absenceof Usoyan’s who tended to stir up conflictswhich most of the mobsters saw no need for.A “young” opposition faction comprising bothGeorgians and Slavs began to take foot, callingfor a new broom in the upper echelons of thesyndicates.

From Spain, Kalashov joined the dis-senters, but once again he turned to an ‘elder’,bringing Oniani back into the fold. Togetherwith the Georgians, he wrote a malyava (crim-inal letter) that called for a moratorium on allof Usoyan’s appointments, meaning those hehad chosen to be vor could no longer lay claimto the status.

Revolt was in the cards, the only thingmissing was the trigger. In January, Usoyanwas gunned down outside an exclusiveMoscow restaurant.

His death was welcomed as a liberation, es-pecially by his henchmen, who began an ac-quisitions and election campaign. Chanturiaset a bounty of five million dollars on the headof one of the men suspected of murderingUsoyan and started eliminating members ofthe opposing faction, killing some of themand getting others arrested.

He also tried to convene a skhodka in Dubai,inviting 300 bosses, but what with the arrestsand those not too keen, only a handful of vorturned up in the Arab Emirates. He thereforedecided it was a better bet to turn his attention

\ Police forces patrolthe centre of Moscow,close to where AslanUsoyan was wounded.The heads of themafias in Russia arefighting over who willtake over from thedead mafia boss.

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to the businessmen and commercial venturespreviously under Usoyan’s control. This iswhen Chanturia runs up against his old col-league Asatryan, who had fallen out withUsoyan in 2012 but had kept his old ‘rolodex’of contacts. Asatryan knew all of Usoyan’s busi-ness partners and has begun recruiting them.

In just two months, tensions grew sky highbetween the two former associates. On March23, Asatryan invited his enemies to a reconcil-iation meeting at a garage he runs nearMoscow. The two factions came armed to theback teeth. Asatryan had his son, a vor sincethe age of 23 even though he has no legitimateclaim to the status, and 30 other men with him.Chanturia turned up with 50 gangsters. A fightbroke out, with punches and bullets flying.

Asatryan’s gang fared worse; his men were de -ci mated. So is that the end of it? Chanturiahopes so and is working to become a leader, buthis rival still hasn’t given up. Today, Asatryanis very tight with the Georgians and is gather-ing support among Oniani’s associates.

The big absentees in this power struggle arethe Slavs. Caucasians – Georgians in particu-lar – currently make up 80% of the active vormembers, while the actual Russians, thosewho started to make money 20 years ago, nolonger stoop to this kind of child’s play.They’ve become respectable businessmen ,cleverly investing their dirty money in legalactivities. Skhodke meetings in garages are be-neath them. And honour among thieves haslost out to untold billions.


RUSSIA

\ The Russian policetake notes next to thebody of the victim ofan attack by a mafiamurder squad in thecentre of Moscow lastJanuary.

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Acouple of tourists emerge from the hos-tel in Tiraspol. They might be Dutch,or German. Timoti rubs his hands with

glee, since this is his bisniz: sightseers roamingthe Soviet amusement park that is Transnistria.“If tourists are happy gawking at hammers andsickles, statues of Lenin and the House of So-viets, why not take advantage of it?” he says.

You won’t find it on a map, its capital cityisn’t listed among Europe’s capitals and its flagdoesn’t fly outside the UN headquarters. ThePridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, or Trans -nistria for short, is a breakaway territory,formed from the fragments of the USSR whenit collapsed. It is, in effect, the last Soviet so-cialist republic in existence, a strip of land 400kilometres long, squeezed between the Dni-ester River and the Ukraine.

It’s officially part of Moldova, yet on theroad from Chişinău to Tiraspol, the lastMoldovan soldier sits in a rusty sentry box sev-eral kilometres before the river border. Thebridge over the Dniester is garrisoned by thetanks of Russia’s 14th Guards Army, whichhas been peacekeeping since a 1992 ceasefire.And in the midst of potato fields as fertile asthe banks of the Nile, there sits a border cross-ing that should not exist.

Transnistria has dropped out of history.Back when the Soviet empire started losing itsfirst pieces, Tiraspol proclaimed its independ-

ence as the 16th Soviet republic. Gorbachevhad other things on his mind at the time, andthe decree annulling the secession got lost inthe tangles of red tape in Moscow. A fewmonths later, while millions of people fromMurmansk to Vladivostok surveyed the ruinsof the empire in a daze, Transnistria hoistedits red-and-green flag with the Soviet emblem.

It took another year for Moldova, an infantrepublic itself, to realise that it was missing apart and try to take it back through force. TheRed Army, which had never left the region,sided with the 330,000 Russians living on theother side of the river. A few shots were fired,a few lives were lost, but the situation re-mained as it is today.

Timoti doesn’t just manage the hostel; healso takes tourists on sightseeing tours of the

by Danilo Elia

Over the Riverand into UtopiaSqueezed between the Dniester River and theUkraine, Transnistria isn’t recognised by any ofthe world’s governments. Yet it has its own flag,currency, a capital and a Supreme Soviet withfull powers. Welcome to the last of the Sovietsocialist republics.

22-24_E Russia Elia_Layout 1 18/06/13 19:23 Pagina 22


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small city centre that include “a visit to theHouse of Soviets, the Lenin monument andthe Great Patriotic War memorial.” Tiraspol isa provincial town with pretensions of being acapital: the picture gallery which displays pho-tos of local heroes (cosmonauts, nomenklaturanotables and Red Army generals) is immacu-late, the billboards have been replaced withSoviet-era effigies while the square once usedfor military parades nowadays sees nothingmore than an old UAZ rattling across it fromtime to time.

In his bestseller Siberian Education, whichis set here in Transnistria, native son NicolaiLinin (now a naturalised Italian) describes acountry run by gangs that fall into one of twocategories: common criminals or honest crim-inals. Besides Linin’s novel, there have been

countless reports from Western police allegingthat Transnistria is a crossroads for illegal traf-ficking, ranging from drugs to heavyweaponry, which has earned the country thenickname of ‘Europe’s black hole’ in the West-ern media. “Not true,” Timoti swears. “It’s justthe sensationalism of the foreign press. Theycome here for one day, hole up in their hotelsand make it all up.”

A basic tomato and cheese pizza at Andy’sPizza in the centrally located 25 OctoberStreet costs at least 70 Transnistrian roubles[just under €5], and you’d better spend all youhave before you leave the country, since nocurrency exchange outlet will take them.

Anton works at the central bank wherethey print all the colourful bills used to paysalaries here, and as Monopoly money in therest of the world. “I love my country”, Antonsays. “It’s unique, you know. We’re actually inMoldova, and we can come and go therewhenever and however we please. But we’realso Russian. Yet when those who’ve headedover to Russia to find jobs come back here, itsmells different, it smell of home.” His enthu-siasm is rather uncommon here in Transnis-tria, but Anton has a good job, unlike most ofhis compatriots. “People do a lot of waitingaround here”, he admits. “We’re all waiting, forthings to get better, for our country to becomea normal country. But we’re optimistic, sincewe all voted for Shevchuk”.

Yevgeny Shevchuk – the former presidentof the Supreme Soviet, considered a reformer– won the 2011 presidential elections with a75% majority, putting an end to the uninter-rupted 20-year reign of Igor Smirnov, a die-hard Soviet throwback with Brezhnevianeyebrows. Shevchuk represents many people’shopes for change. “The communist era is fi-nally history, and we’re becoming a post-So-viet state, twenty years later than the otherformer USSR republics”,’ says Anton. What he

\ A bust of Leninoutside the Palace ofthe Soviets inTiraspol, the capitalof Transnistria, thelast soviet socialistrepublic, yet to berecognised by anygovernment in theworld.

t Officers inTransistria. Accordingto western policesources Transnistriais a crossroads forillegal trafficking.

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doesn’t say is that it is not yet clearwhether this change of presidentwill make any difference, or whatkind of difference at that.

Shevchuk is a young technocratwho has forced the old nomen-klatura into retirement, yet he doesnot support Moldova’s EU leaningsand looks east instead. During thelast Russian presidential elections,he invited all registered Transnis-trian voters to choose VladimirPutin, “to strengthen Transnistria’sties to Great Russia.”

In the late afternoon’s lengtheningshadows, the centre of Tiraspol startsto look like a De Chirico painting.“Yeah, it’s pretty dead at night. Fornightlife you have to go to Chişinău”,

says Dima, and he should know: hisband plays plenty of gigs in town, butthey prefer playing in Moldova.“There isn’t a lot for young people todo around here. And they don’t havemuch of a future here either.”

Dima (stage name Daniel) playsheavy metal and, at 29, has prettyclear ideas about Transnistria: “Thiswhole story about independence isone big mess. It’s just a game thepols in Moscow and Chişinău play.We young people couldn’t care less.What is Transnistria? The foreignnewspapers call it ‘the country thatdoesn’t exist’, and you know what?They’re right, it doesn’t. It’s just afantasy dreamed up by the politi-cians, and we’re all trapped in it.”

It’s evening now and Timoti’stourists are back. They’ve had a spe-cial treat: a full-blown parade forVictory Day, to celebrate the 68thanniversary of the Red Army’s de-feat of the Nazis. Under sunny skies,veterans dripping with medals, ac-companied by young pioneers,placed wreaths before the eternalflame, as red flags flapped in thespring breeze. “They’ve had their‘Back in the USSR’ day,” jokes Tim-oti, “and now we’re going to top it offwith a few rounds of vodka. Tomor-row, they go back to the twenty-firstcentury.”

For most people around here,though, there’s no return ticket outof the Transnistrian utopia.

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