east construction round table situation report - service ......east construction round table...

East Construction Round Table Situation Report Summary

as of June 3, 2020

Session Presenters o Tim Reynolds, TreanorHL o James Vermeulen, Vermeulens

Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education, TreanorHL Potential enrollment decline

o higher education is a $700B industry in the US – “Annual revenue 2018” o 10% of college-bound seniors have already made alternate plans o student retention at risk, 14% said they are unlikely to return to their current college, the figure is rising on a

weekly basis o admission officers forecast a noticeable decrease in enrollment, the majority anticipate a 4-9% decline in fall

enrollment o one college in Illinois has closed due to insufficient funds o university presidents are concerned about long-term financial viability o many universities have implemented cost control measures, 32% anticipate layoffs in the future o 42% of universities have deferred capital projects, 34% anticipate doing so in the future

International students o decline in the percentage of international students annually since 2014, contribute 41B to the US economy o enrollment of international students will be immensely impacted; admissions administrators anticipate greater

than a 10% decline in fall enrollment o 36% of universities rely on international students for more than 10% of their total revenue

Campus facilities and students o anticipated limitations in activities will be in place for next 12-18 months if not longer o prioritization of in-person instruction for courses with academic outcomes that can to be measured or achieved

virtually (laboratory, clinical, etc.) o limitation of the number of attendees for in-person courses; all in-person courses/sections should be limited to

fewer than 30 participants o design professionals are starting to look at social distancing classroom layouts o 26% of students are reconsidering where they want to go to college o 50% of students’ financial situations have been affected by COVID-19

US Unemployment, Vermeulens as of May 23rd, 48M are unemployed compare to 6M on Feb 15th. national construction employment has decreased by 13% since February 2020 as of April 2020, greatest declines in NE state construction employment are:

o Vermont (-48.0%) o Michigan (-43.3%) o New York (-38.2%) o Pennsylvania (-36.4%) o Massachusetts (-34.1%)

May 2020 data will be available later in June as Construction is a priority for many states in re-opening their economies, expecting some construction jobs coming

back

Future Agenda, Changing to every other Friday starting June 12th at 11:00 Eastern Jobs and Unemployment COVID-19 Cost Checklist

B o s t o n N e w Y o r k T o r o n t o S a n A n t o n i o D e n v e r L o s A n g e l e s

Since 1972

East Construction Round Table

®

James Vermeulen – Co-CEORichard Vermeulen – Co-CEO

Zach Bergeron – Associate

North America’s Construction Economistvermeulens.com

Service Beyond Estimation

®

Agenda

1. Treanor HL – Academic Planning

2. Open Forum Discussion

Logistics

• Please mute mics except for those speaking

• Please keep camera function off

• Interim questions and comments via chat

• Weekly summary “Situation Reports”, slide deck, reminder

• Webcast audio available with reminder link

• Market Outlook “Special Report”

• Shifting to Bi-Weekly – June 12th next session (combining with our Forum)

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education

There are more questions than answers

Tim ReynoldsPrincipal, Science & Technology

What is our role?

We need to have an ongoing discussion to learn about all the issues and perspectives…

“There are no rules here – we are trying to accomplish something.”Thomas A Edison

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The pandemic impact on higher education: A round table discussion

Derek WestfallPresident

Tradeline Inc..

Rodney BoehmDir Engineering Entrepreneurship

Texas A&M

JoAnn Browning, PhD, PEDean, College of Eng

Univ of Texas San Antonio

PK Imbrie, PhDDept Head, Professor

CEAS, Univ of Cincinnati

Just the facts…

National Center for Education Statistics

6,132 institutions26,436,441 students

• Predictive-enrollment models won’t hold up in a COVID-19 world

Social Sector Practice COVID-19 and US

higher education enrollment: Preparing

leaders for fall

National Association of Foreign Student Advisors (NAFSA)

Overall, international students account for 5.5 percent of all students enrolled at American colleges and universities

Among the U.S. universities that Moody’s rates, 36 percent rely on international students for more than 10 percent of their total revenue.

Institute of International Education

Moody’s

April 29,2020Inside Higher Ed

Insidehighered.com

• 10 percent of college-bound seniors who had planned to enroll at a four-year college before the COVID-19 outbreak have already made alternative plans

• 14 percent of college students said they were unlikely to return to their current college or university in the fall, or it was "too soon to tell." Exactly three weeks later, in mid-April, that figure had gone up to 26 percent

• College students do not like the online education they have been receiving. To finish their degrees, 85 percent want to go back to campus, but 15 percent want to finish online.

Colleges could lose 20% of students


1,933 Institutions$395.7B

What are admissions officers thinking about?

Cirkled In 2020Post-COVID: Impact on

College Admissions Survey

Admissions officers forecast a noticeable decrease in enrollment.Prior to the Coronavirus Pandemic, 55% of our surveyed colleges were actually looking forward to an increased number in enrollments at their campus for the Fall 2020 class. 39% were expecting the same enrollment numbers as last class.

The last few weeks have changed the paradigm significantly, going from a positive outlook to downward trend. 87% of surveyed Admissions Administrators are now moving forecasts from a net increase to a prediction of a decline in their freshman class enrollment. 42% of respondents see a decline ranging from 4-9% an 18% are expecting this decline to be more than 10%.

They’re worried.



Enrollment of international students will be immensely impacted.International students are an important part of the U.S. higher education fabric. They not only bring in more tuition money, but also bring in the diverse cultural aspects with them, enriching the learning of the whole college community. COVID-19 has definitely put that at risk.

By definition, a pandemic had an effect worldwide. The U.S. has been a preferred destination for secondary and post-graduate study. Given the challenges of closed borders, travel restrictions and general epidemic concerns, there will no doubt be a backlash felt by U.S. higher education institutions. 2019-2020 class had anywhere from 1% – 5% of the class made up on international students. COVID-19 will change those numbers. 93% of surveyed admissions administrators now expect to see a drop in their international student enrollment. Of those, 24% expect this drop to be between 4-9% and almost half of the total respondents expect these declines to be greater than 10%.

Staying home:



Retention rates are at risk.We know that college recruitment is always a balancing act between meeting the enrollment goals and enrolling best-fit qualified students who will thrive and graduate from their institutions. Almost 70% of our surveyed colleges had a freshman class retention rate of over 70% prior to the pandemic.

Post-pandemic, 74% of our respondents are predicting a decline in their retention rates: over 27% are predicting a 4%-9% additional drop in student returning to campus next year; whereas 17% see that number over 10%.

The point of no return:

Public institutions• 2018 Revenues - $397.5B• Estimated revenues from tuition and fees - $103.3B• Potential lost revenues from 10% enrollment reduction - $10.4B

Private non-profit institutions• 2018 Revenues - $248.7B• Estimated revenues from tuition and fees - $87.0B• Potential lost revenues from 10% enrollment reduction - $8.7B

Private for-profit institutions• 2018 Revenues - $16.7B• Estimated revenues from tuition and fees - $5.85B• Potential lost revenues from 10% enrollment reduction - $585M

The University of Arizona predicts a $250 million loss, spurring pay cuts and a hiring freeze

The University of Michigan announced its losses could grow as high as $1 billion

Shall we do some math? According to nces.ed.gov, tuition and fees make up 26 percent of revenues for four-year public; 35 percent for four-year private nonprofit institutions

College and University Presidents Respond to COVID-19: APRIL 2020 Survey

192 college and university presidents shared their concerns and thoughts

What happens in our facilities?

• We can anticipate restrictions and limitations in activities will be in place for the next 12–18 months, if not longer

• Return to an active on-campus environment will depend upon widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation/quarantine of ill

• Planners should prepare for the likelihood of a local rebound of infections that may result in a return to more restrictive mitigation measures

https://www.acha.org/documents/resources/guidelines/ACHA_Considerations_for_Reopening_IHEs_in_the_COVID-19_Era_May2020.pdf

American College Health Association (ACHA):

Instruction and Learning Environments. General considerations should include: • Prioritization of in-person instruction for courses with academic outcomes that cannot be

measured or achieved virtually, such as performance, laboratory, and clinical experiences. • Implementation of a hybrid mode of instruction for the foreseeable future. Remote options should

be planned for and available in the event that a rebound in local infections necessitates continued physical distancing and to support vulnerable students and staff, students in quarantine or isolation, and students and staff who cannot physically return to campus.

• Limitation of the number of attendees for in-person courses/sections. In most cases, all in-person courses/sections should be limited to fewer than 30 participants and also utilize other physical distancing measures. Consider creating multiple sections/shifts to reduce numbers.

• Implementation of close monitoring and tracking of in-person attendance and seating arrangements to

• Facilitate contact tracing in the event of an exposure. • Development of a physical distancing plan for each course

American College Health Association (ACHA):

What about our students?

What do students prefer—online or traditional in-person classes?

This survey has some eye-opening data when it comes to high school students’ preference for online vs. in-person classes. In this online world where students spend on average 3.5 hours per day online (as per another report), it was surprising to see that a whopping 63% of students preferred traditional classes and 33% preferred some sort of hybrid classes. Less than 5% of students preferred only online classes.

Cirkled In 2020Impact of COVID-19 on Students’ College

Plans – Survey ReportResults of 1,000 high school students

How many students are rethinking their college location preference?

Even though 74% of students are sticking to their original college location plans, 26% are rethinking where they want to go to college. This could partially be due to a change in financial situation and making students think to save money by staying home or partially, to stay closer to the safety and support of their family.

If anything, this social distancing has brought families closer. Lots of students are thinking about staying close to home, going to in-state colleges or even community colleges. So, they can be closer to the family if something like COVID were to happen again.

Cirkled In 2020Impact of COVID-19 on Students’ College

Plans – Survey ReportResults of 1,000 high school students

National Student Survey 2,000 college-bound high school seniors and current college students March 26 -30, 2020 Simpson Scarborough SimpsonScarborough.com

Powered by

I am very grateful that I still have access to a good education and that my parents can still work, but I miss college life.

While yes, I am still getting the material I need to learn, online learning lacks certain things that one can only achieve while in person. There is no fostering of relationships with peers or professors.

DEMOGRAPHICS

What is your age?

What is your year of study?

LIVING SITUATION

When your campus closed, did you have to move?

Did who you live with change when your campus closed?

While 50% of participants answered that they had to move when campus closed, 70% answered that who they lived with changed. Regardless of on- of off-campus housing, most participants had a change in their living environment due to COVID-19.

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ONLINE LEARNING

Which class format(s) do you prefer? (Check all that apply)

If you have the option, do you replay online class recordings to better understand content?

Q21: Which of the below types of learning do you prefer most?

I learn best:

Some combination of individual and team learning

By myself

In a group or team

Now that campus is closed and all classes are online, what statement do you most agree with below?

I am getting the same educational value now as I was getting previously

I am getting a greater educational value now than I was getting previously

I am getting less educational value now than I was getting previously

Do you consider your online instructional laboratories as effective as on-campus instructional laboratories?

Why do you not consider your online instructional laboratories and effective as on-campus instructional laboratories?

I've had multiple labs canceled, and it's hard to participate in my remaining lab which is about manufacturing. Instead of getting certified for multiple machines, I will have to find my own time to do it in the Fall.

It is more difficult to ask questions and stay engaged.

• Time zone differences• Technology compatibility differences (between students)• Technology software limitations on laptops• Lack of access to software needed• Lack of review for projects minimizing goals/scope• Lack of ability for hands-on learning


Do you believe face-to-face interaction between yourself and faculty members is an important part of your college experience?

Do you believe face-to-face interaction between yourself and fellow students is an important part of your college experience?

Which of the below skills do you feel you are less able to develop via online learning? (Check all that apply)

“Happiness.”

Which of the below skills do you feel you are more able to develop via online learning? (Check all that apply)

What are some of the causes for any distraction you feel learning remotely? (Check all that apply)

A lack of others around students was more commonly selected as a distraction than the presence of othersaround them.


Household tasks/responsibilities

Lack of others around me

Neighbors/surrounding environment

Others around me

Access to recreational activities

Other (please specify)

I do not feel any distraction studying remotely

“Work.”

WELLNESS

Do you feel more or less stressed since the enactment of current social distancing standards?

No changeSignificantly less stressed Significantly more stressed

45%22%0% 33%0%

What are some of your current stressors? (Check all that apply)

Online learning

School work in general

Social distancing

Living situation -location

Finances/employment

Family matters

Living situation –people around me

Food and supply shortages


I or my family has been sick

I am not currently experiencing any stressors

What are some of your current stressors? (Check all that apply)

Living situation –people around me

Food and supply shortages


I or my family has been sick

I am not currently experiencing any stressors

“Far inferior education.”

“I love my family, it just can get annoying being stuck in a house for so long.”

“Simply the instability of the situation. I'm blessed to have a job lined up, but at the same time, the state of the economy as a graduating senior is terrifying. Especially with a lot of friends in the petroleum engineering sector...it's hard to watch them have great offers rescinded. There's also uncertainty with grading policies and how finals will be formatted in my classes, which is stressful as well.”

How many students are expecting a change in their financial situation for higher education?

COVID-19 is causing economic disruption and hardships for millions of families in the U.S., changing the financial outlook for students and their college plans. Even though about 78% of students are not expecting changes to their college plans, still 69% of students are expecting a change in their financial situation for their higher education.

Cirkled In 2020Impact of COVID-19 on Students’ College Plans

– Survey ReportResults of 1,000 high school students

How many students are rethinking their intended major preference?

The majority of surveyed students have no plans to change their college major. That said, 13% of those surveyed shared that they are seriously reconsidering their major as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Events such as 9/11 and the COVID-19 pandemic can sometimes trigger an affinity to certain careers like medicine, first responder and educator.

Cirkled In 2020Impact of COVID-19 on Students’ College Plans

– Survey ReportResults of 1,000 high school students

Among the findings:• 20 percent strongly or somewhat agree that ”College done online can be just as fulfilling and effective as

on campus.”• 29 percent strongly or somewhat agree that “I have considered deferring attending college until COVID-19

passes.”• 47 percent are looking for one-on-one conversations with admissions.• 44 percent are looking for a virtual tour of campus.• 55 percent strongly or somewhat agree that “college will start on time, on campus, in the fall.”

Primacy surveyed 200 high school students on their plans for the future.

Who do you live with currently?Answered: 10 Skipped: 1

“I have a lease with roommates near my campus but am currently staying with parents (and so are my other 3 roommates.)”

Do you consider your online design project work as effective as on-campus design project work?Answered: 7 Skipped: 4


Why do you not consider your design project work as effective?Answered: 5 Skipped: 6

My design project work is not as effective because it is based off observing other individuals and learning from real life experience, which is not possible to achieve at the moment due to quarantine.

The programs required run much slower on laptops, leading me to make decisions to reduce the scope of what I originally was aiming for.

Limited access to design software. Lack of creative motivation for school work.


Right now in my studio class, we have had to minimize our goals for our design projects. We are unable to make as much progress than we had initially hoped to, because at this point it has been impossible to get our projects reviewed to receive the feedback that would normally help us progress our design work.


My lab partners and I are working from 3 different time zones, and we aren't given class time to work. In addition, we all have different laptops and it takes a lot more time than previously.

Do you still study/connect with classmates outside scheduled class meeting times?Answered: 10 Skipped: 1

Among the findings:• Nine of 10 prospective students whose decision process has been impacted cited the ability to visit a

campus.• 75 percent of students indicated that their rankings of preferred colleges and universities hadn’t changed.• 16 percent of students said they were considering an option closer to home than their original first choice.• 12 percent indicated they are considering delaying enrollment to spring or fall 2021.

Maguire Associates surveyed nearly 7,000 students and parents.

Why do you not consider your online instructional laboratories and effective as on-campus instructional laboratories?Answered: 5 Skipped: 6

Because before, a teaching aid would have a brief instruction lecture before every lab, and that doesn’t occur anymore.

Instructional labs on campus are much more hands-on with helping students, whereas now a lot of students may not receive as thorough of help in an online setting.

Please indicate which format(s) your classes consisted of before and after your campus closed. (Check all that apply)

Formats which students marked they most prefer (see previous slide) were those that decreased the most after campuses closed.


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US UnemploymentWeek Ending Claims

March 7th 211,000

March 14th 498,000

March 21st 3,307,000

March 28th 6,867,000

April 4th 6,615,000

April 11th 5,237,000

April 18th 4,442,000

April 25th 3,846,000

May 2nd 3,176,000

May 9th 2,687,000

May 14th 2,446,000

May 23rd 2,123,000

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Contracting Market

Year Over Year Growth – Statewide

Year-Over-Year Growth

Market ExpansionNational

(+41% -13%)

Year Over Year Growth – Statewide

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Year Over Year Growth – Top Cities



(+41% -13%)

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Contracting Market

Year Over Year Growth – Top Cities

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Open Forum

Contractors Owners Architects Engineers Sub Contractors

• Bids• Work Volume• Construction Logistics• COVID-19 Costs• Design Impacts• Owner Issues

Future Agenda

• Jobs and Unemployment

• Covid Cost Checklist

• Others?

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