ebook evolution (revolution): where do campus stores fit in? camex college bookstore presentation
DESCRIPTION
Much of the book industry is hard at work developing and implementing digital strategies. But when will we experience the tipping point? How will this impact campus stores? And what do you do in the interim to prepare. In this presentation, Thought Leader speaker Kelly Gallagher, Vice President of Publishing Services at Bowker, provides his unique perspective on this industry “game changing” event. Kelly shares with you recently published data from the Book Industry Study Group (BISG) that examines both students and consumer book/e-Book behaviors and his insight on where e-books are headed. This presentation provides suggestions on what you can do now to prepare, Kelly Gallagher’s thoughts on potential roles for campus stores, and how you might make money along the way. This was presented on 2/26/11 at CAMEX 2011 for college bookstores.TRANSCRIPT
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© 2011, Bowker
The eBook R/Evolution: Where Do Campus Stores Fit In?
Presenter: Kelly Gallagher, RR Bowker
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© 2011, Bowker
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© 2011, Bowker
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the times they are a chang’n
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© 2011, Bowker
rate of…
motivation for…
direction of…
CHANGE…in strategy
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© 2011, Bowker
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© 2011, Bowker
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© 2011, Bowker
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Who’s problems are we looking
to solve?
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© 2011, Bowker
Publisher?
Used Books Open-Source
e-Book Transition
COGS
Piracy
Rentals
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Administration?
EnrollmentFaculty
Facilities
Funding
Tuition
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Bookstore?
e-tail Off-Campus
e-BooksFaculty
Administration
Rentals
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Student?
Convenience Relevance
Requirements
Expertise
Cost
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© 2011, Bowker
So looking ahead…
…how do we set strategies in times of uncertainty?
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Know the market trends…
Know the end user…
Know your value proposition!
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© 2011, Bowker
Know the market trends…
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Sell-through
Tracks new and used Point-of-
Sale Data from 4-yr, 2-yr, and For-
Profit schools
Sample represents ~63% (FTE) of the US
Higher Ed market
Data collected from ~2,400
bookstores, & online e-tailers
Adoption
Course Book in Use data
collected from college
registrars office
Demand
Pre-order wholesaler data from over 4200
stores and e-tailers
19
Overview of Textbook Market for AY 2010
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Pop Quiz!!
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True or False?1. For the first time on
record, the textbook industry shrank ($$$) last year?
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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY2010 $-
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
$8,000.0
$9,000.0
$5,733.2 $6,017.1 $6,272.2 $6,346.3 $7,318.0 $7,703.2
Total Dollar Market Size (in millions)
22
The College Textbook market continues to grow in spite of dire predictions
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Multiple Choice2. The average price of a new
textbook in AY2010 was a) $74b) $84c) $94d) $104
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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY2010 $50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$83.73 $87.16
$92.03 $96.70
$101.63
$104.14
$63.52 $66.58
$70.24
$76.05 $80.24
$82.83
New average price Used average price
24
Students are Right: Textbook Prices Rising
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Multiple Choice3. The used textbook market is
a) >60%b) >50%c) >40%d) >30%of the total (units) market?
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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
65.2% 66.5% 66.1% 64.3% 65.5% 67.8%
34.8% 33.5% 33.9% 35.7% 34.5% 32.2%
New Units Used Units
26
Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units
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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
70.4% 71.0% 71.7% 69.5% 70.0% 72.5%
29.6% 29.0% 28.3% 30.5% 30.0%27.5%
New Sales Used Sales
27
Over 70% of Textbook Dollars Sold are New Units
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AY 2010
ESL 9.84%
Vo-Tech 9.89%
Library Information Science 11.70%
Nursing 12.89%
Food Science 14.28%
Foreign Languages and Literature 16.38%
Medical Sciences 17.21%
Legal Studies 18.98%
Accounting 19.23%
Computer Training & Certification 19.83%
28
Career Texts are Keepers - Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates
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AY 2010
Museum Studies 43.85%
Theater 40.53%
Dance 40.10%
Geography 39.53%
History 38.36%
Philosophy 37.43%
Anthropology 37.21%
Art 36.49%
Paralegal Studies 35.96%
Sociology 35.34%
29
Liberal Use of Used Texts -Top 10 Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates
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True or False?4. Math, English, and Science
comprise the top 3 selling ($$$) disciplines?
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AY 2010
Mathematics $ 839.8
English $ 704.2
Biological Sciences $ 490.8
Psychology $481.1
Education $ 296.7
Accounting $ 268.4
History $ 261.3 Foreign Languages and Literature $ 250.2
Chemistry $ 243.2
Management $ 206.6
31
‘The Basics’ Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
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AY 2009 to AY 2010
Computers & Information Systems 36.8%
Food Science 28.0%
Parks & Recreation 25.9%
Vo-Tech 24.8%
Computer Training & Certification 23.8%
Business Education/Vo-Tech 19.5%
Social Work 16.5%
Health & Health Related Professions 15.0%
Criminal Justice 14.1%
Medical Sciences 13.8%
32
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – Top 10 Growing Disciplines
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AY 2009 to AY 2010
Theater -1.47%
Management Information Systems -3.06%
Family & Consumer Studies -3.34%
Finance -4.47%
Marketing -5.03%
Classics -5.04%
Astronomy -5.22%
Linguistics -5.43%
Dance -8.74%
Architecture -13.46%
33
Liberal Arts Not Supported -Top 10 Declining Disciplines
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Multiple Choice5. Psychology and ________
a) Spanishb) Chemistryc) Biologyd) None of the aboveare the top selling ($$$) courses?
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AY 2010
Psychology: Introductory $106.7
Spanish: Language: Elementary $ 76.8
Chemistry: Introductory $ 68.0
MIS: Applications $ 66.5
English: Composition: Rhetoric $ 62.7English: Composition: Introductory $ 59.7
Human Anatomy and Physiology $ 54.3
Biological Sciences: Introductory $ 51.6 Mathematics: Probability and Statistics $ 44.1
Biological Sciences: Introductory $ 43.7
35
101 - Psych & Spanish Top 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
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AY 2010The Art of Public Speaking (PK w/Connect Lucas), Lucas, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
$ 11.4
Biology (PK w/Mastering Biology), Campbell, Pearson Higher Education
$ 10.1
Human Anatomy and Physiology, Marieb, Pearson Higher Education
$ 6.2
Uderstanding Business, Nickels, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
$ 5.2
Biology: Concepts and Connections, Campbell/Reece, Pearson Higher Education
$ 5.1
Publication Manual of the American Psychological Assoc.
$ 4.8
Psychology, Myers, Macmillan $ 4.3
Exploring Psychology (P), Myers, Macmillan
$ 4.1
Thinking Mathematically (PK) Blitze, Pearson Higher Education
$ 3.7
Prentice Hall Guide for College Writers, Reid, Pearson Higher Education
$ 3.5 36
Speech & Biology TextsTop 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
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Title Ed (C)Total Sales
Share of Franchise
New Avg Price
Used Avg Price Used Share
Exploring Psychology (P) 7 2007 $1,963 24.3% $101.19 $69.32 83.4%
Psychology 9 2008 $1,587 19.6% $133.19 $97.34 71.6%Exploring Psychology in Modules 7 2007 $814 10.1% $99.15 $70.80 74.4%
Psychology in Everyday Life 9 2008 $551 6.8% $75.77 $54.50 54.0%
Exploring Psychology 8 2009 $430 5.3% $100.77 $76.47 17.8%Psychology (PK w/Study Guide, PsychSim 5. 0 CD-ROM and Booklet) 9 2009 $271 3.4% $148.12 $111.81 1.6.0%
Psychology in Modules 9 2009 $254 3.2% $131.50 $97.81 12.7%Exploring Psychology in Modules 7E (Paper) and Study Guide 7 2007 $194 2.4% $119.49 $81.19 57.6%
Psychology 8 2006 $162 2.0% $129.81 $78.57 95.7%
Psychology in Everyday Life 9 2009 $153 1.9% $46.75 $35.13 0.5%
37
A Tale of Two Revenues – The “Myers” Intro to Psych Franchise
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Know the end-user
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Student Attitudes Study• The semi-annual survey focuses on college student perceptions related to
educational content in the higher education market. • Key areas of focus were to determine:
– Rate of change and preference for digital texts– Value of content and learning platforms– Illicit behaviors with content
• It is powered by Bowker's PubTrack Consumer Panel, the publishing industry's exclusive resource for understanding buying behavior.
• The online survey polled 1505 college students drawn from a nationally representative panel.
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Multiple Choice6. By the end of 2010 e-Books
represented over ___%a) 5%b) 10%c) 20%d) 25%of the total book market.
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Overall eBook Trends
Apr_09
May_0
9
Jun_09
July_09
Aug_09
Sept_0
9
Oct_09
Nov_09
Dec _0
9
Jan_1
0
Feb_1
0
Mar_10
Apr_10
May_1
0
Jun_10
Jul_10
Aug_10
Sept_1
0
Oct_10
Nov_10
Dec_10
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
6.3%
5.0%
6.1%6.9%
4.8%
5.9%6.6%
6.0%
4.9%
6.9%6.4%
8.3%8.7%
7.7% 7.9%
9.5% 9.6%
10.7%11.1%
12.7%
12.8%
1.9%
2.8% 2.8%2.0%
2.4% 2.6%2.0%
2.8%2.0%
2.8%
3.9%3.5% 3.6%
3.2%
4.1% 4.3% 4.6%5.2% 4.9%
7.0%
10.9%
% read ebooks (daily/weekly) est. % ebooks purchased
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Do readers really prefer digital?
• Trade Publishing – After reading ‘e’–17% say that they prefer print–And 17% say that they were not
satisfied with the digital display–66% report they are generally satisfied
with digital books
42
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Do readers really prefer print?
• Other publishing segments have asked the same question…
• Newspaperso 61% of people now read news everyday on the Internet
vs. 50% who read newspapers (Pew Project)
• Magazineso 3 years ago only 1.5% of subscribers selected digital
replica consumer magazineso Now 38% of iPad owners are reading digital
magazines (Changewave Research)
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What About E-Textbooks,
56%27%
7%7% 3%
E-Text ~7% MarketOverall Digital Content ~10 – 12%
Print TextbooksBundles & PacksCustomsE-ContentOther
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AY 2010
Management
Psychology
Business
English
M.I.S.
Marketing
Mathematics
Education
Accounting
Economics
45
Wide Aray of ‘e’Top 10 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates
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Multiple Choice7. When given a choice ___%
a) 55%b) 65%c) 75%d) 85%of students would choose print over text.
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Key Finding-Print vs. e-Textbook
• 75% of students preferred traditional printed textbooks over digital replica e-textbooks.– Like the look and feel
of print– Potential for
permanence of ownership
– Opportunity for resale
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© 2011, Bowker 48© 2011, the Book Industry Study Group
Students reported low satisfaction with e-Textbooks
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True or False?8. Kindle, iPad, & Nook have
now surpassed PC’s as the primary eText reading devices?
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Laptops remain the top device for reading eTextbooks
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Multiple Choice9. Trade ‘e’ sales are expected to hit
25% by 2013. Most predict Higher Ed will reach that number ina) 2014b) 2015c) 2016d) 2017
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Most new devices lack the computing power and functionality required by students.
Most students are unlikely to purchase and carry multiple devices.
DRM Tech-savvy does not = instant conversion Digital Fatigue
Result: eTextbook and eResources sales are projected to be 25% of Higher Education Sales in 2016
Higher Education Barriers to Rapid Digital Growth
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So where does this leave us?
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Compete on the value propositions you know you can win on… & choose no more the two!
5 Core Retail Value Propositions1. Price2. Service3. Convenience4. Selection5. Relationship or Experience
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© 2011, Bowker
Student & Bookstore Affinity – what values are you already winning on?
Lowest
Price
Order Q
uickly / E
asily
Can get books b
efore classe
s
All the te
xtbooks I
need
Accurate Book lis
ts
Recommended by cla
ssmates/f
riends/f
amily
Recommended by pro
fessors
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 9.238.25 7.9 7.6 7.41
6.28
2.1
3.8
7.98.2 8.2 8.6
5.66.9
Source B&N College
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Keeping Perspective
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Multiple Choice10. My Alma Mater is…
a) The College of New Jerseyb) Yalec) Northern Arizona U.d) University of Houston