ec aa t : l e ...€¦ · ecaa t : l ei debraj ray, university of warwick, summer slides:...
TRANSCRIPT
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EC�AA T��� �: L������� �� E������� I���������
Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer ����
Slides �: Introduction
Slides �: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice
Slides �: Functional Inequality: The Falling Labor Share
Slides �: Inequality and Conflict
Slides �s: Supplement: More on Cross-Group Violence
Postscript [if there is time]: Publishing without Perishing
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T�� A�������� �� I���������
The Grabbing and Opportunity Cost E�ects Dube-Vargas ����, Mitra-Ray ����
An increase in rival income increases violence directed against rival group.
An increase in own income reduces violence directed against rival group.
Motive Versus Means Esteban-Ray ����, ����, Huber-Mayoral ����
The class marker is a two-edged sword:
it breeds resentment, but harder for the poor to revolt
Within- vs Cross-Group ethnic division) perverse synergy of money and labor
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A� I�����������: H����-M����� V�������
Recurrent episodes of violence
Partition era of the ����s, and earlier
Continuing through the second half of the twentieth century.
Indian history, and the relative size of Hindu population, suggest:
Religion is a highly salient cleavage
Hindu groups generally dominant in propagating conflict
Does economics (or income comparisons) have anything to do with this?
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S��� E����������� L���������
Thakore (����) on Bombay riots [land]
Das (����) on Calcutta riots [land]
Rajgopal (����), Khan (����) on Bhiwandi and Meerut riots [textiles]
Engineer (����), Khan (����) on Jabbalpur, Kanpur, Moradabad
[bidis, brassware]
Upadhyaya (����) on Varanasi riots [sari dealers]
Wilkinson (����) on Varanasi [wholesale silk]
Field et al (����) on Ahmedabad [housing]
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Hindu-Muslim income ratios (NSS exp data):
State Exp.���� ����-� ����-�
H/M Min Max H/M Min Max H/M Min MaxAP �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
Bihar �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Gujarat �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Haryana �.� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
Karnataka �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Kerala �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
MP �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Maharashtra �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
Orissa �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Punjab �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
Rajasthan �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��Tamil Nadu �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
UP �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��West Bengal �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��
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S��� E����������� L���������
Bombay riots [land] (Thakore ����)
Calcutta riots [land] (Das ����)
Bhiwandi and Meerut riots [textiles] (Rajgopal ����, Khan ����)
Jabbalpur, Kanpur, Moradabad riots [bidis, brassware] (Engineer ����, Khan ����)
Varanasi riots [sari dealers] (Upadhyaya ����)
Varanasi riots [wholesale silk] (Wilkinson ����)
Ahmedabad [housing] (Field et al ����)
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Example: Engineer (����) on Meerut riots:
“If [religious zeal] is coupled with economic prosperity, as has happened in Meerut,
it has a multiplying e�ect on the Hindu psyche. The ferocity with which business
establishments have been destroyed in Meerut bears testimony to this
observation. Entire rows of shops belonging to Muslims . . .were reduced to ashes.”
And yet. . .
Wilkinson (����):
“Despite the disparate impact of riots on Hindus and Muslims, however, little hard
evidence suggests that Hindu merchants and financial interests are fomenting
anti-Muslim riots for economic gain. . . ”
Horowitz (����, p. ���):
“The role that commercial competition is said to play is said to be a covert,
behind-the-scenes role, which makes proof or disproof very di�cult.”
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D���
Conflict data. Varshney-Wilkinson (TOI ����-����)
our extension (TOI ����-����).
extension by Iyer et al (TOI ����-����)
Income data. NSS consumer expenditure data.
Rounds �� (����), �� (����-�), �� (����-��), �� (����-����), �� (����-����).
Controls:
Various sources, in particular Reports of the Election Commission of India.
Five-period panel at the regional level; �� regions.
Poisson, negative binomial, OLS.
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35
40
45
9 10 11 12log Muslim expenditure
log
Cas
ualti
es (r
esid
ual)
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−30.0
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9 10 11 12log Hindu expenditure
log
Cas
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es (r
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Casualties, �-Year Average Starting Just A�er
[Poiss] [Poiss] [NegBin] [NegBin] [OLS] [OLS]
H Exp ⇤⇤⇤-�.�� ⇤⇤⇤-�.�� ⇤⇤-�.�� -�.�� ⇤⇤-�.�� ⇤-�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M Exp ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤ �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol ⇤�.�� ⇤�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Gini H -�.��� �.��� -��.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Gini M �.��� -�.��� -��.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Lit, Urb Y Y Y Y Y Y
Muslim exp " ��) Cas " �–��.Hindu exp " ��) Cas # -�– -��.
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V���������
Other measures of conflict (number of riots, killed)
Three-period, five-period panel
Urban alone, Ahmedabad included or excluded, BJP seatshare
The use of Hindu-Muslim expenditure ratios.
Examination of the lag structure.
Political controls
Endogeneity (instrument H-M exp ratio by national returns to occupations)
Ruling out other interpretations; e.g., funding.
Di�erent regression specifications
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O���� M������� �� C�������
Killed and Riot Outbreaks, �-Year Average Starting Just A�er
[Poiss] [NegBin] [OLS]Kill Riot Kill Riot Kill Riot
H exp -�.�� -�.�� -�.�� ⇤-�.�� -�.�� ⇤⇤-�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M exp �.�� ⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop ⇤-�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol �.�� �.�� �.�� ⇤�.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniH -�.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniM �.�� -�.�� -��.�� -�.�� -��.�� -��.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Lit, Urban Y Y Y Y Y Y
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T�� U�� �� H����-M����� E���������� ������
[Poiss] [NegBin] [OLS]Cas Kill Riot Cas Kill Riot Cas Kill Riot
M/H ⇤⇤⇤�.�� �.�� ⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop �.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� -�.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pce -�.�� �.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol ⇤�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� ⇤�.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniH -�.�� -�.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� -��.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniM �.�� �.�� -�.�� -�.�� -��.�� -�.�� -��.�� -��.�� -��.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Lit, Urb Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
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V������ L���
[�] [�] [�] [�] [�] [�]Cas-� Cas-� Cas Cas�� Cas�� Cas��
H exp �.�� �.�� -�.�� ⇤⇤⇤-�.�� ⇤⇤⇤-��.�� ⇤⇤⇤-��.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M exp -�.�� -�.�� ⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop �.�� �.�� ⇤⇤�.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol -�.�� -�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤�.�� ⇤⇤⇤�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
BJP Y Y Y Y Y Y
Lit, Urb Y Y Y Y Y Y
Ginis Y Y Y Y Y Y
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E����������
Reverse causation? Anecdotal evidence on who su�ers:
[Wilkinson ����] ����–����: Muslims were ��� of the population, but su�ered
��� of the ��� deaths
��� of the ���� injuries
��� of the estimated property damage
Omitted Variables?
Gulf funding of conflict (via remittances)
Income recovery from past conflict
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E����������
Instrument: Occupational Groupings
�� broad occupational categories from the NSS: (�) Agricultural Production and
Plantations, (�) Livestock Production, (�) Fishing, (�) Mining and Quarrying (Coal; Crude Petrol and
Natural Gas; Metal Ore; Other), (�) Manufacture of Food Products and Inedible Oils, (�) Manufacture of
Beverages, Tobacco and Tobacco products, (�) Manufacture of Textiles (Cotton; Wool, Silk, Artificial; Jute,
Veg. Fibre; Textile Products), (�) Manufacture of Wood and Wooden Products, (�) Manufacture of Paper,
Paper Products, Publishing, Printing and Allied Industries, (��) Manufacture of Leather, and of Leather
and Fur Products, (��) Manufacture of Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum, Coal ; Chemicals and Chemical
Products, (��) Manufacture of Non-Metallic Mineral Products, (��) Basic Metal and Alloy Industries, (��)
Manufacture of Metal Products and Parts, except Machinery and Transport Equipments, (��)
Manufacture of Machinery, Machine Tools and Parts except Electrical Machinery, (��) Manufacture of
Electrical Machinery, Appliances, Apparatus and Supplies and Parts, (��) Manufacture of Transport
Equipments and Parts and (��) Other Manufacturing Industries.
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E����������
Instrument:
Construct average national returns for Hindus and Muslims in each category.
Use NSS national expenditure averages to do this.
Use regional employment to get H- and M-indices by region.
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IV ����������� ���� H- ��� M-�������
First Stage Second StageCas Kill Riot Cas Kill Riot
M/H ind ***�.�� ***�.�� ***�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M/H ***��.�� ***��.�� ***��.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pce *-�.�� *-�.�� *-�.�� ��.�� ��.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop -�.�� -�.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol **-�.�� **-�.�� *-�.�� ��.�� ��.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniH ***-�.�� ***-�.�� ***-�.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniM ***�.�� ***�.�� ***�.�� **-��.�� **-��.�� **-��.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
BJP Y Y Y Y Y Y
Lit, Urb Y Y Y Y Y Y
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A G������ M������?
A counter-view:
Rise in Muslim income just a proxy for overall Hindu stagnation.
Could imply an increase in social unrest quite generally
Therefore not interpretable as directed violence.
Test by using GOI dataset on Crime in India
Has data on “all riots”.
(Doesn’t publish data on religious violence!)
![Page 22: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
A G������ M������?
Placebo using all conflict:
[1]Poisson
[2]Poisson
[3]Neg. Bin.
[4]Neg. Bin.
[5]OLS
[6]OLS
HExp ***�.�� -�.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
MExp -�.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M/H -�.�� -�.�� -�.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pce *�.�� -�.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol *-�.�� *-�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniH **-�.�� *-�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
GiniM -�.�� -�.�� �.�� �.�� �.�� �.��(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Lit, Urb Y Y Y Y Y Y
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E�������� �� P���-G������, W��� D��� ���� ����
Muslim expenditure; all regions
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022
024
041
042
043
051
052
053
054
055
092
093
094
102
113
121
123
125
161
162
181
182
184
201
203
222223
224
021
021
021
022
022
022022
023
041
041041
041
042
042
042
043
043
043
051
051
051
051052 052
052
052
053
053
053
054
054
054
055
055
055
055
061
091
091
091
092
092
093
093
093093
094
094
094
101
101
101
102 111113
113
114
114
114
114116
116
116
117
121
121
121
121
122
122
122123
123
123
123
124
124
124
124
125
125
125
163
171
181
181
181
182
182
182
183
183
184
201
201 203
203
204
222
222
222
222
223
223
223
223
224224
224
224
232
233
233
233
234
20
24
28
9 10 11 12log Muslim expenditure
log
Cas
ualti
es (r
esid
ual)
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E�������� �� P���-G������, W��� D��� ���� ����
Muslim expenditure; Ahmedabad excluded
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022
024
041
042
043
051
053
054
055
092
093
094
102
113
121
123
125
161
162
181
182
184
201
203
222 223224
021
021
021
022
022
022022
023
041
041041
041
042
042
042
043
043
043
051
051
051
051
053
053
053054
054
054
055
055
055
055
061
091
091
091
092
092
093
093
093093
094
094
094
101
101
101
102
111
113
113
114
114
114
114
116116
116
117
121
121
121121
122
122
122123
123
123
123
124
124
124
124
125
125
125
163
171
181
181
181
182
182
182
183
183
184
201
201 203
203
204
222
222222
222
223
223
223
223
224224
224
224
232233
233
233
234
35
40
45
9 10 11 12log Muslim expenditure
log
Cas
ualti
es (r
esid
ual)
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E�������� �� P���-G������, W��� D��� ���� ����
Hindu expenditure; all regions
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022
024
041
042
043051
052
053
054
055
092
093
094
102
113
121
123
125
161
162
181
182
184201
203
222
223224
021
021
021
022
022
022
022
023041
041041
041
042
042042
043
043043 051
051
051
051
052
052
052
052
053
053
053
054
054
054
055
055055 055
061
091
091091
092
092
093
093
093
093094
094
094
101
101
101
102
111
113
113
114
114
114114
116
116
116
117
121
121
121
121122
122
122
123
123
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123
124
124 124
124
125
125
125
163
171
181
181
181
182
182
182183 183 184
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203
204
222
222
222
222
223
223
223
223
224
224
224
224
232
233
233
233
234
−25.0
−22.5
−20.0
−17.5
9 10 11 12log Hindu expenditure
log
Cas
ualti
es (r
esid
ual)
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E�������� �� P���-G������, W��� D��� ���� ����
Hindu expenditure; Ahmedabad excluded
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053
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055092
093
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102
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123
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161
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181
182
184
201
203
222
223224
021021
021
022
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022
023 041
041
041
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042
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042 043
043 043
051
051
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055061
091091
091
092092
093
093
093
093094
094
094
101
101
101
102
111
113
113
114 114
114
114
116
116
116
117
121
121
121
121
122
122
122
123
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124124
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125 163171
181
181
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182
182
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201201
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222
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223
223
223223
224
224
224
224
232
233
233
233
234
−30.0
−27.5
−25.0
−22.5
−20.0
−17.5
9 10 11 12log Hindu expenditure
log
Cas
ualti
es (r
esid
ual)
![Page 27: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
�-period Poisson FE (urban hh, excluding region containing Ahmedabad)
[�] [�] [�] [�] [�] [�]
H pce ***-�.��� ***-�.��� **-�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M pce **�.��� **�.��� *�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
M/H ***�.��� ***�.��� **�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Average Per-Capita Exp. **-�.��� **-�.��� -�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Pop �.��� �.��� �.��� �.��� �.��� �.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
RelPol **�.��� ***�.��� ***�.��� *�.��� ***�.��� ***�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Primary Edu. ***�.��� ***�.��� ***�.��� ***�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Gini H -�.��� -�.���(�.���) (�.���)
Gini M -�.��� -�.���(�.���) (�.���)
BJP LS seatshare **�.��� ***�.��� ***�.��� **�.��� ***�.��� ***�.���(�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���) (�.���)
Log-Likelihood -�,���.�� -�,���.�� -�,���.�� -�,���.�� -�,���.�� -�,���.��
Number of observations ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���
![Page 28: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
T�� F����������� �� S��������� ��� D���������
There are many ways of approaching these phenomena:
None in itself fully satisfactory.
My focus: the failure of aspirations.
![Page 29: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
T�� G����� T��������
Netherlands, ����-����, ���
United Kingdom, ����-����, ���
United States, mid-��th c, ��
United States, mid-��th c, ��
Brazil, mid-����s, ��
Korea, late ����s, ��
China, ����!, �–�
![Page 30: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
R����� E������ D��������� A���� ��� L���� �� O����� . . .
Social basis for individual preferences:
Absurd to think about inequality, unrest, conflict, etc. without this.
Unclear if such exposure to the lives of others leads to betterment or to despair.
“The French found their position all the more intolerable as it became better.”
de Tocqueville, ����
![Page 31: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
A����������
Multidimensional reference point:
a = (y, F ),
y = personal outcomes
F = social distribution of outcomes.
Payo�s: a serves as anchor for payo� function:
u(c) + w0(z) + w1(e),
where z is future outcome and ek = max{zk � ak, 0}.
�-way: aspirations �! outcomes �! aspirations.
![Page 32: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
A���������� �� M���������
A single-dimensional illustration:
z
w0
za
w1
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
w0(z)
![Page 33: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
A���������� �� M���������
A single-dimensional illustration:
z
w0
za
w1
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
![Page 34: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
A���������� �� M���������
A single-dimensional illustration:
z
Utility
a1
e1
w0
w0(z) + w1(e1) + w2(e2)
za2
w1
w2
e2
![Page 35: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
A���������� �� M���������
A single-dimensional illustration:
z
w0
za
w1
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
w0(z)
![Page 36: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
A���������� �� M���������
: A single-dimensional illustration
z
w0
za
w1
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1z0
u(y) - u(y-k(z))
w0(z)
![Page 37: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
A����������, I���������� ��� F����������
The milestone nature of aspirations generates sudden tip-overs.
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1z0
u(y) - u(y-k(z))
w0(z)
![Page 38: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
A����������, I���������� ��� F����������
The milestone nature of aspirations generates sudden tip-overs.
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1
u(y) - u(y-k(z))w0(z)
![Page 39: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
A����������, I���������� ��� F����������
The milestone nature of aspirations generates sudden tip-overs.
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1z0
u(y) - u(y-k(z))w0(z)
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A����������, I���������� ��� F����������
The milestone nature of aspirations generates sudden tip-overs.
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1z0
u(y) - u(y-k(z))w0(z)
z
a450
Satisfaction
Frustration
z1
z0
a*
![Page 41: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
A����������, I���������� ��� F����������
The milestone nature of aspirations generates sudden tip-overs.
za
w0(z) + w1(z-a)
z1z0
u(y) - u(y-k(z))w0(z)
z
a450
Satisfaction
Frustration
z1
z0
a*
Proposition. For every wealth w, there is a threshold a(w) below which
aspirations are met, and above which frustrated. When met, investment grows with
aspirations. But once frustrated, investment jump discontinuously downward and
therea�er remain insensitive to or decline with aspirations.
![Page 42: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
More generally, aspirations are multidimensional.
[individual]: income, health, education, housing
[collective]: public goods, power, religious/cultural/ethnic dominance.
... and a research program can be built around this framework:
poverty traps (Appadurai ����, Dalton et al ����, Ray ����, ����)
growth and inequality (Bogliacino and Ortoleva ����, Genicot and Ray ����)
socio-economic mobility (Esteban et al ����)
risk-taking (Bondi and Ray, in prep.)
doubling-down in the face of bad shocks (Genicot and Ray, in prep.)
“appropriate goal-setting” (Schwenkenberg ����, Kearney ����, Besley ����, Goux ����)
violent conflict (Mitra and Ray ����, Genicot and Ray, in prep.)
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O� A���������� ��� C�������
�. Are aspirations determined by our social surroundings, or can we control them?
�. Can we use frustrated aspirations to understand discontent in societies that
exhibit rapid changes in per-capita income?
�. If uneven growth leads to social unrest via the channel of frustrated aspirations,
do we expect those frustrations to be directed against those that benefit the most
from growth, or against a third party?
�. Are political leaders who are unable (or unwilling) to control high and rising
economic inequality, able to create “second-best” release valves by directing
animosities in “orthogonal directions”?
![Page 44: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
Frustrated aspirations and discontent with growing inequality:
Are frustrations directed at beneficiaries, or against third parties?
Are political leaders who are unable (or unwilling) to control high and rising
economic inequality, able to create “second-best” release valves by directing
animosities in “orthogonal directions”?
![Page 45: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
Two-dimensional aspirations:
�: economic investments, typically private.
�: cultural/religious/nationalistic investments, o�en group-based.
![Page 46: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
Resources
Private Investments Group Dominance
![Page 47: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
zz0 r
Resources
Private Investments Group Dominance
r1
Payoff Payoff
z1
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O��������� R�������� �� I���������
zz2z0 r
Resources
Private Investments Group Dominance
r2 r1
Payoff Payoff
z1
![Page 49: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
za z1 r
Resources
Private Investments Group Dominance
r0
Payoff Payoff
![Page 50: EC AA T : L E ...€¦ · ECAA T : L EI Debraj Ray, University of Warwick, Summer Slides: Introduction Slides: Personal Inequality: Occupational Choice](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042920/5f66c48d38b676297a6fa985/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
O��������� R�������� �� I���������
za z1z2 r
Resources
Private Investments Group Dominance
r0 r1
Payoff Payoff
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O��������� R�������� �� I���������
Proposition �Over the income cross-section, dominance investments initially fall, droppingdiscontinuously as aspirations switch from failure to success; then rise again.
With high economic inequality, aggregate dominance investments rise.
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D���������
Why does the aspirations-based model deliver this prediction?
In a “concave setting,” an increase in inequality must increase the marginal
return to investment, thereby unambiguously reducing the orthogonal response.
Here, private investment drops. The freed-up resources are then deployed
“sideways,” towards another, relatively reachable objective.
Is inequality unambiguous in its e�ects?
No. To some degree, higher inequality will spur more investment of the
economic kind. But it must then pass through a phase of “orthogonal collective
action.”
With extremely high inequality, conflict could fall again owing to income e�ects.