自然災害研究協議会東北地区部会・日本自然災害学会東北支部...

6
1) IPCC4 2) 99% 3) 4,000 3) 200 2009 * Sedimentation produces analysis in tropical glacier zone, Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University by Seiki Kawagoe and Naoya Imaizumi, San adres University by Ramiro Pillco Zola, Tohoku Univercity by Yoshihiro Asaoka. -1 東北地域災害科学研究 第48巻(2012) 225

Upload: others

Post on 14-Feb-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • ���������������

    ����������������� !� "#� $%�

    �������������&� '(� )*�

    +,-./���� 012345�63775�8571�

    9:�������� !� ;�

    ?@�ABCD�

    ��������������

    �������������� !"#

    $�%&��'()��*+�,-./

    0123456�7�"89:��;�?@�AB���.�1)CD

    EF/GH�!"��7IJKL�MNO

    P�QRST�4UVWXYZ�[\�

    ]^J���.�C456�7��_F�

    `"abc�d4e��ÃÄF�.�ÅÆ,ÇF�.�CÈ�/"ÉÊ�4UVWXYZ,]^J©� wS¤�C

    ËÌÍÎ�ÏoÐwS¤�ÑÒÓ²:"ÔÕ`"°±²Y(³´�¦¥4,000Ö×9�µ¶©�v2

    3�x04,ØÙÙOÚÙÛ¹�-F"�,ÜÝS.�CF2Fm�3Ù��7I�����9

    Þ�yz��!ßàS`v�Êá�âF�.�DJ�ã32����.�3)Cs/"ÔÕäåæ�ç200

    è���;�µ¶F�.��Ù¿Àéêë23��;¸ì��!�;

  • #ÍÎS`"4UVWXYZ�Ï©��

    �yz�$%,&õ�"ÔÕ� q�9

    4��4�S¤�Tuni'(E-1� ())�Ï©

    ���,������������

    d4Â*�¤+��,e����-!./

    ,0//C

    H@�� �IJKLMNOPQRST�

    ÍÎ`×1�2233�¸��ú©J

    !�45F/CD�3,6cõ(U78ï)

    �9�DJ�ST�:��©�DJ�-

    !.ÝpC

    2 ÁÂb�¥0;£d4e§¨(

  • )c�%&�?|4�Ds��C%&��'(

    )�6c0;£,}§�©�DJ"'()�z{

    ²,~©�DJ�01,ýE9S]^�m

    �CÈDS"×1�S"}0;£�"z{²

    ~,ý�/C

    2 Hijmans, R.J. et al(2005)���6c0;£

    1kmB1km�=dhe§¨( R%&��'()�20Á�(1990à

    i)=d4e(

  • 2 ʤm³« 23T!������C

    > ���!��"���'YÂ��©�C

    (m "!��"��Â`'Y�í��!`m!"'Y�Ê�S¤��`¬

    ���©$"��®I�¯S}°�©�C)

    3 d4"vx0¹��!'Y ������òó

    DEF/Áo±²23 ©³!�´µJ.EU�¶XYZ�ú���Áo�!{�·23�h��

    ���� !�����CÈ�/"#01S`�����!��Áo,9�DJJF"±:

    ¸¹�!AO��/RUSLEº6),-F���e�,e�,0//C×1�RUSLEº,ú©C

    PLSCKRE ����� …………………………………..…………………(1) /pF"E:��e(º»»Skg/30m×30m¼month�)"R:dh½%� dh��V)(tf¼m2/km2¼h)"K:�½%(��+��½%&�¾,���.�CmÔ{¿ �JF�»C)"CÀ�Á½%(#01S`�tC)"LS: ½%(�j"�í£,-F�Â�C)"PÀîĽ%(#01S`�tC)S¤�Cdh½%R�¾.�`dh(

  • Jan Feb Mar Apr

    May Jun Jul Aug

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Jan Feb Mar Apr

    May Jun Jul Aug

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    �-8� CDEFG� 2050�HIJKL��

    M

    NM

    OMM

    ONM

    PMM

    PNM

    QRS

    TUV

    WRX

    YZX

    WR[

    Q\S

    Q\]

    Y\^

    _UZ

    `ab

    cde

    fUa

    RSS\R]

    WdSbg

    _dh]�iUh^gjbk

    lXUmUSb

    PMNMnRo

    PMNMnhS

    M

    PM

    pM

    qM

    rM

    OMM

    OPM

    QRS

    TUV

    WRX

    YZX

    WR[

    Q\S Q\]

    Y\^

    _UZ

    `ab

    cde

    fUa

    RSS\R]

    WdSbg

    _dh]�sd]\nUjntk

    lXUmUSb

    PMNMnRo

    PMNMnhS

    2050�H��uvwIJKL(x�)�yz

    2050�H��uvwIJKL��yz

    {|-25%}

    {|-4%~

    {|-38%}(3�)

    M

    NM

    OMM

    ONM

    PMM

    PNM

    QRS

    TUV

    WRX

    YZX

    WR[

    Q\S

    Q\]

    Y\^

    _UZ

    `ab

    cde

    fUa

    RSS\R]

    WdSbg

    _dh]�iUh^gjbk

    lXUmUSb

    PMNMnRo

    PMNMnhS

    M

    PM

    pM

    qM

    rM

    OMM

    OPM

    QRS

    TUV

    WRX

    YZX

    WR[

    Q\S Q\]

    Y\^

    _UZ

    `ab

    cde

    fUa

    RSS\R]

    WdSbg

    _dh]�sd]\nUjntk

    lXUmUSb

    PMNMnRo

    PMNMnhS

    2050�H��uvwIJKL(x�)�yz

    2050�H��uvwIJKL��yz

    {|-25%}

    {|-4%~

    {|-38%}(3�)

    IJKLx�(tf/month)

    IJKLx�(tf/month)

    �-9� CDEFG� 2050�H�uvwIJKL���yz

    MNM

    MN

    OMM

    OPN

    ONM

    ON

    PMM

    QRS TUV WRX YZX WR[ Q\S Q\] Y\^ _UZ `ab cde fUa

    WdSbg

    lXUahZhbRbhdS�XRbhd

    W`�W_YO

    W`�W_YP

    W`�W_O

    WWYO

    WWYP

    WWO

    fTWPOYO

    fTWPOYP

    fTWPOO

    _`�WtMYO

    _`�WtMYP

    _`�WtMO

    ZZUX

    diUX

    PMNM�jPMpqPMqNk

    MNM

    MN

    OMM

    OPN

    ONM

    ON

    PMM

    QRS TUV WRX YZX WR[ Q\S Q\] Y\^ _UZ `ab cde fUa

    WdSbg

    lXUahZhbRbhdS�XRbhd

    W`�W_YO

    W`�W_YP

    W`�W_O

    WWYO

    WWYP

    WWO

    fTWPOYO

    fTWPOYP

    fTWPOO

    _`�WtMYO

    _`�WtMYP

    _`�WtMO

    ZZUX

    diUX

    POMM�jPMrOPMk

    �-6� CDEFG�{|-��yz

    Jan Feb Mar Apr

    MayJun Jul Aug

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    �(mm/month)

    Jan Feb Mar Apr

    MayJun Jul Aug

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    �(mm/month)

    �-7� CDEFG� 2050�H���

    229

  • j@������gh�

    ���01+�JF�"Ei8�2050àØf=d4eb�Tuni̧ w���e(e)�U78,ú©C

    s/"Ei9�2050àb�=Ë/!��e��®,úF/C��e`åæ�¢ËJF�º»�e

    2.0tf/m3(ç20kN/m3)J»F@�.�C01+��!hI,¯è����ØO�©�éê�ú��"12

    ="1=`[����¸ì�|}���'YS�