ecmwf ecmwf meteorological training course meteorological training course horst böttger ecmwf head...

ECMWFECMWF Meteorological Training Course

Meteorological Training Course

Horst Böttger

ECMWF

Head of Met Division

Operations Department


ECMWF IN A FEW FIGURES

Member States: 18

Co-operating States: 7

Employees: 220

Age: 28 years


Member States

Austria Luxembourg

Belgium Netherlands

Denmark Norway

Finland Portugal

France Spain

Germany Sweden

Greece Switzerland

Ireland Turkey

Italy United Kingdom

Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with:

Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Iceland Slovenia Serbia & Montenegro Romania WMO EUMETSAT ACMAD JRC CTBTO (INPE)


Organisation of ECMWF

COUNCIL18 Member States

DIRECTORD. Burridge

(UK)

OperationsD. Marbouty

(France)

OperationsD. Marbouty

(France)

ResearchP. Bougeault

(France)

ResearchP. Bougeault

(France)

AdministrationG. Schultes

(Germany)

AdministrationG. Schultes

(Germany)

FinanceCommittee7 Members

FinanceCommittee7 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members

Advisory Committeeon Data Policy

8-18 Members

Advisory Committeeon Data Policy

8-18 Members

Advisory Committeeof Co-operating States

6 Members

Advisory Committeeof Co-operating States

6 Members

MeteorologicalDivision

H. Böttger(Germany)

ComputerDivision

W. Zwieflhofer(Austria)

DataDivision

A. Simmons(UK)

ModelDivisionM. Miller

(UK)

Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division

T. Palmer(UK)


ECMWF Budget 2003

Germany 22.73%

Denmark1.87%

Belgium2.78%

United Kingdom16.23%

Turkey 2.21%

Sweden 2.62%

Finland 1.38%

Switzerland 3.08%Portugal1.22%

Austria 2.24%

Norway 1.71%

Netherlands 4.33%

Italy12.78%

Ireland0.85%

Greece1.37%

France 15.80%

Spain 6.47%Revenue 2003

Member States’ contributions £24,618,500

Hungary, Iceland, Croatia,Slovenia, Czech Republic £299,400

£24,917,900

Tax onstaff salaries£3,436,400

Staff contributionsto pensions and

insurance £732,600

Other revenue£820,400

Total revenue (£29,907,300)GNP Scale 2003

Luxembourg0.20%


ECMWF Objectives

Operational Medium Range forecasting up to 10 days ahead (including waves) with emphasis put on severe weather

R & D activities in forecast modelling

Data archiving and related services

Operational seasonal forecasting up to 6 months ahead

Provision of supercomputer resources

Assistance to WMO programmes

Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN)


ECMWF – other activities

Reanalyses (ERA-15, ERA-40)

Boundary conditions for LAM

Data Services

Provision of archival data and products

Provision of software


Computer configuration - August 2003


Phase 3 of the IBM HPCF

Two identical clusters with 68 p690++ servers each

Nodes for user work:

Each cluster has 66 32-processor servers for user work

6 of the servers in each cluster have 128 GB memory

All other nodes have 32 GB memory

Processors (Power4+) run at 1.9 GHz (7.6 gigaflops peak)

~25 terabytes of disk per cluster

p-Series High Performance Switch (4 links per server)

Nodes for I/O and networking

2 p690++ servers, each partitioned into several smaller nodes

The number of nodes is an estimate and could go up or down depending on the results of the performance test


ECMWF model scores 1981-2003


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90MDATE = 20021201 TO 20030228

AREA=N.HEM MEAN OVER 90 CASES

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST

500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

FORECAST VERIFICATION ECMWF 12UTCBRAKL 12UTCOFFNB 12UTCWASHN 00UTCMONTL 00UTCENSMN 12UTCTLOUS 00UTC

MAGICS 6.8 leda - mom Mon Mar 29 18:14:33 2004 Verify SCOCOM

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast Day

70

75

80

85

90

95

100%DATE = 20021201 TO 20030228


ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST




0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80MDATE = 20031201 TO 20040228


ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST




0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Forecast Day

70

75

80

85

90

95

100%DATE = 20031201 TO 20040228


ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST




Comparison of ECMWF forecast performance with other NWP centres (Z500 Anomaly correlation) previous winter (left) and last winter 2003/04 (right)

Winter 2002/03

Winter 2003/04

Northern Hemisphere


Number of used observational data

QuikSCATRed. Thinning ATOVS Meteosat WV rad SBUV & GOME

NOAA17

MODIS windsGOES WV rad Add. HIRS


0.01

0.1

1

10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

6h 3D

6h 4D

12h 4D

25r4/26r1

AIRS

millions

Number of observational data used in the ECMWF assimilation system (with AIRS)

3.6 millions


www.ecmwf.int


Your room


Point of interest for theresearch community

Availability of ERA-40

Data server providing on-line free access for research and education

• ERA-15

• Demeter

• ERA-40

• ENACT

BUFR/CREX and GRIB encoding-decoding software freely downloadable on-line

External policy adopted


ERA-40

400 GB

2.5 degree

GRIB or netCDF


Summary of the strategy for ECMWF 1999-2008

A Strategy for ECMWF for the period 1999 to 2008 was adopted unanimously by the ECMWF Council in June 1999. In summary:

Goals

The prime long-term goal of the Centre’s research and operational activity for the period 1999-2008 is to deliver operationalmedium-range weather forecasts of increasingly high quality and scope over the range from three to ten days and beyond.

A complementary long-term goal is to establish, deliver and improve a reliable operational seasonal forecasting capability.


The forecast and data assimilation system

Make full use of data from new satellite (AIRS, SEVIRI, IASI)

Extract information on cloud, precipitation and related dynamics

Refine the treatment of land and ocean surface, boundary layer and hydrological cycle

Increase the resolution:

• Vertical resolution from 60 to 91 levels

• Deterministic fc and 4D-Var outer loop from 40 to 25 km (T799)

• Ensemble forecast (EPS) from 80 to 50 km (T399)

• Seasonal forecasting from 200 to 125 km


The ensemble system

Weekly running of the monthly forecast

Develop a “seamless” ensemble forecast system across a range of timescale, e.g.

• T399(50 km) to D+7 twice daily

• continue once a day at T255(80 km) to D+15

• continue twice a week at T159(123 km) to D+30, in coupled mode

Moist singular vector

Ensemble data assimilation


The seasonal forecasting system

Europe in a leading position to develop a multi-model operational seasonal forecasting system:

• Started with with UK Met Office model

• Continues with Météo-France

ECMWF recognised as a global producer in the WMO system under development

Develop System 3 (125 km resolution)

New Ocean model

Extend to 12 months


Operational targets

Development of the monitoring activities

• Satellite date

• In support of EUCOS

Timeliness of dissemination

Development of severe weather products:

• Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)

• Tropical Cyclone

• Floods

Worldwide RMDCN


Other developments

Environmental Monitoring (GMES):

CO2

Other non reactive gases

Reactive gases

Aerosols

IFS for climate runs

Grid computing

ecmwf ecmwf meteorological training course meteorological training course horst böttger ecmwf head...

Documents

ecmwf assimilation system

hirs slide

members finance committee

northern hemisphere

performance test slide

data policy

data server

observational data quikscat