ecmwf forecast products user meeting, e. zsoter, 14-16 june 2006 severe weather forecasts severe...

ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts

Severe Weather Forecasts

Ervin Zsoter


Outline

Extreme weather forecast products, EFI and other forecast indices, extreme weather risk maps

New EFI climate

Verification of extreme weather forecasts

Case studies


)1(

)1()(

cc

cf

QpQ

QpQpSOT

Extreme Weather Forecast Indices

1

0)1(

)(20 dpEFI

pp

pFp f

pFppSPS c)(

-30 oC -20

oC -10

oC 0

oC

2m Temperature

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pro

babi

lity

not t

o ex

ceed

thre

shol

d

Climate

+108h (EFI0=71.3% SPS

0.9=10.0% SOT

0.9=39.9%)

Empirical Distribution Functions 67.7oN /18.1

oE

2m Temperature forecast VT Monday 31 October 2005 12UTC

Qc(p)- Qc(1)

Qf(p)- Qc(1)

SPS (p)

1

0)1(

)(20 dpEFI

pp

pFp f

SPS (p)

SOT+(p)

Ff(p) p

p (Fc(p))

Shift in Probability Space (SPS): Distance between the forecast and climate distributions in the probability space at the p-percentile

Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): Scaled integral distance between the forecast and climate probability distributions

Shift of Tails (SPS):Proportional distance between the forecast and climate distributions in the meteorological variable space at the p-percentile


2m temperature EFI-s

40°N

50°N

60°N

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

60°E

60°E

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.50.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

40°N

50°N

60°N

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

60°E

60°E

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.50.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

40°N

50°N

60°N

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

60°E

60°E

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.50.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

12 UTC EFI

Daily max EFI

Daily min EFI


Examples with the Extreme Weather Indices

50°N

60°N

70°N

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

2m temperature, VT: Monday 31st 12 UTC, October 2005, D+5Extreme Forecast Index (order=0), Shift in Probability Space and Shift of Tails (Q10 & Q90)

2

4

6

8

10-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

50

60

70

80

90

100

40°N

50°N

0°

0°

20°E

20°E120h total precipitation, VT: Friday 3th 06 UTC - Wednesday 8th 06 UTC, March 2006, D1-D5Extreme Forecast Index (order=0), Shift in Probability Space and Shift of Tails (Q90)

2

4

6

8

1050

60

70

80

90

100

SOT an SPS may highlight areas relatively far from

the EFI maximum

2m temperature

120-hour total precipitation


Multi-parameter Extreme Weather Risk map, based on the EFI

-24 -24 -20

-20

-20 -16

-16

-16

-16-12

-12-12

-12

-8

-8-8

-8

-8-8

-8-4 -4

-4

-4

-4

-4-4

-4

-4

0

0

0

00

0 0

0

4

4

4

4

44 4

4

4

8

8

8

8 8

8

88

8 8

8

8

8

8

8

12

12

12

1212

12

12

12

12

12

12

12 12

12

12

12

12 12

16

16

16

1616

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

20

20

20

20

2020

20

20

20

2020

20

24

24

24

24

24

80°S80°S

60°S60°S

40°S40°S

20°S20°S

0°0°

20°N20°N

40°N40°N

60°N60°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W

140°W

140°W

120°W

120°W

100°W

100°W

80°W

80°W

60°W

60°W

40°W

40°W

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E

40°E

40°E

60°E

60°E

80°E

80°E

100°E

100°E

120°E

120°E

140°E

140°E

160°E

160°E

1000 hPa Z ensemble mean and EFI values (above 50% & 80%) for 24h-TP, 10m wind speed and 2m-temperatureWeather anomalies predicted by the EPS, RT: 20060303 00 UTC, VT: 20060304

Unusual warm Extreme warm Unusual cold Extreme cold Unusual wind Extreme wind Unusual TP Extreme TP

http://w3ec2.ecmwf.int/metops/efitest/


-8

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

0

0

0

0

0

4

4

4

4

4

4

8

8

8

8

8

8

12

12

12

12

12

16

16

40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E40°E

1000 hPa Z ensemble mean and EFI values (above 50% & 80%) for 24h-TP, 10m wind speed and 2m-temperatureWeather anomalies predicted by the EPS, RT: 20060303 00 UTC, VT: 20060304

Unusual warm Extreme warm Unusual cold Extreme cold 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - 1.18 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - 1.18

Extreme Weather Risk map


0 mm 10 mm 20 mm 30 mm 40 mm 50 mmThreshold (24h-acc [6-6])

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pro

babi

lity

not t

o ex

ceed

thre

shol

d

Climate

+30h (EFI0=88.0%)

+42h (EFI0=81.1%)

+54h (EFI0=64.8%)

+66h (EFI0=71.2%)

+78h (EFI0=69.1%)

+90h (EFI0=73.2%)

+102h (EFI0=70.6%)

+114h (EFI0=40.8%)

+126h (EFI0=40.2%)

+138h (EFI0=42.9%)


oE

24h-acc precip forecast VP Tuesday 28 February 2006 06UTC-Wednesday 1 06UTC

Evolution of EPS forecast distributions, relative to the climate

EFI is indicated as a measure of the level of extremety

Currently prepared for the location of maximum EFI in a 10*10 degrees gridbox

Different diagram for different verifying lead times (D+1 – D+5)

For 2m temperature, 10m wind speed and 24h total precipitation

Distribution diagrams attached to the Extreme Weather Risk map


Recent progress – Severe Weather Risk map for the Monthly Forecast System

-5 oC 0

oC 5

oC 10

oC

Threshold (2m T)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Pro

babi

lity

not t

o ex

ceed

thre

shol

d

Climate

+432h (EFI0=-55.7%)

+600h (EFI0=-39.1%)

+768h (EFI0=-33.2%)


oE

2m weekly mean temperature forecast VT Monday 20 March 2006 00UTC-Monday 27 00UTC


New Medium range Model Climate

Running an additional EPS control re-forecast suite in dynamical adaptation mode (48h forecast)

Initial conditions from ERA40 (1971-2000)

Use latest resolution/ physics

12 UTC daily runs (for 30 years each day)

Same post-processing as for EPS (surface + a few pressure and PV levels)

Cost is only like adding six 10-days Control runs per day

Will allow an immediate adaptation of the EFI to any EPS model upgrade, and also an extension of the EFI (and other calibrated probabilistic products) to other parameters than rain, T2m and wind

In MARS: “Ensemble Forecast Atmospheric Hindcast” = efhc and “Ensemble Forecast Wave Hindcast” = ewhc.

Operational since 1 February 2006 (high resolution upgrade)


-5 oC 0

oC 5

oC 10

oC 15

oC 20

oC

2m Temperature

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

babi

lity

not

to e

xcee

d th

resh

old EPS forecast

Old climate (EFI0=19.8%)

New clim +-0 day (EFI0=32.7%)

New clim +-3 days (EFI0=35.3%)



Empirical Distribution Functions for Reading (51.46oN /-1.33

oW)

2m Temperature forecast VT Friday 20 January 2006 12UTC, +108h

New EPS Control Climate for the EFIExample for Reading, diff. distribution sampling window from ±1 to ± 15 days


EFI with old and new model climatology

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E2m temperature EFI-old, VT: Monday 31 October 2005 12 UTC, t+108

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.30.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

20°S 20°S

10°S10°S

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

60°N 60°N

70°N70°N

100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E2m temperature EFI-new, VT: Monday 31 October 2005 12 UTC, t+108

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.30.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

EFI with old climate

EFI with new climate

3 calendar month of archived EPS forecasts

from previous years

EPS control model reruns for years 1971-2000,

31 days from each year

ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts 80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

climate is based on years 1971-2000 and operational analyses are taken as observationsERA-40 climate and observed anomaly of 2m temperature (K) for month of July (average of 2003-2005)

-10

-5

-3

-1

-0.5

-0.20.2

0.5

1

3

5

1080°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W 0°

0° 20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E

measured by the Extreme Forecast Index (%) for 2m temperature, month of JulyDifference between the new ERA-40 based climate and the old pseudo-climate

-100

-50

-30

-20

-10

-55

10

20

30

50

100

EFI with old and new model climatology

“Observed anomalies” July 2003-2005

referenced to ERA-40 (1971-2000)

Difference between the old and new EFI

climate (measured by the EFI)


Verification of Extreme Weather Forecasts

Follow up of the study made by Francois Lalaurette & Federico Grazzini in 2005 (for 24h total precipitation EFI, 2003 Oct – 2005 May)

Verification of the EFI (based on the old pseudo-climate and the new EPS control re-forecast model climate) and also the EPS probability for extreme events

EFI is regarded directly as probability and truncated at 0 (no transformation is applied)

For parameters of 2m maximum temperature and 24-hour total precipitation

D+1, D+3, D+5, D+7 and D+9

For period of 2005 July – 2006 May

Observational climate is based on the Climate Atlas of Europe (Météo-France) and the new EPS control model climate


Definition of the extreme events

The atlas contains monthly means, upper and lower quintiles, daily extreme values and different frequency indices for temperature, precipitation, wind gust and sunshine duration for ~ 700 selected European stations. The climate period is 1971-2000.

Monthly extreme events are defined as: at least as extreme as the 99.5 percentile of the daily climate distribution based on sampling over the month

Average return period of 6-7 years. Apprx. the 5th most extreme case (99.5 percentile -> 1/200) in the monthly sample (size ~ 900, 30days*30years).

It is assumed that the model climate behaves similarly to the observed climate (similar shape characteristics of the distributions).


Definition of the extreme events

Monthly thresholds for extreme events (DayObs995) =

MonObsQ80 * (DayEpsQ995 / MonEpsQ80)

MonObsQ80 & MonEpsQ80 = Upper quintile of distribution of monthly means in the observation & EPS model climate (per station, per month)

MonEpsQ80 = Upper quintile of distribution of monthly means in the EPS control re-forecast climate (per station, per month)

Daily extreme thresholds are created by interpolating between adjacent months

Using GTS synop ~1700 (tp24) & ~2500 (tmax24) extreme events were found during the period July 2005 – May 2006


Examples of extreme thresholds

40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 50 50 - 70 70 - 100

40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

10 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 50

24-hour total precipitationMay 16th

2m daily maximum temperatureJuly 16th


EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ility

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

Modified ROC, new and old EFI

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio

Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ility

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ility

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ility

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ility

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7

New D+9 Old D+9


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7

New D+9 Old D+9

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May

ROC, new EFI and EPS prob

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

New D+9 Prob D+9


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

New D+9 Prob D+9

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate

Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

New D+9 Prob D+9


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

New D+9 Prob D+9

FC / OBS YES NO

YES H F

NO M R

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May

REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)

REL diag, new and old EFI

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7




0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

bab

ilit

y of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Old D+1

New D+3 Old D+3

New D+5 Old D+5

New D+7 Old D+7

New D+9 Old D+9

F/(R+F) F/(H+F)


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0


Pro

babi

lity

of

Det

ecti

on

New D+1 Prob D+1

New D+3 Prob D+3

New D+5 Prob D+5

New D+7 Prob D+7

New D+9 Prob D+9


Extreme event case study - I“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005

40°N

50°N

0°

0°

20°E

20°E

10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 50 50 - 75 75 - 100 100 - 200

Observed 24-hour total precipitation22 August 2005

Extreme events


40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005

D+9


40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+7


40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+5


40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+3


40°N

50°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+1


40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E

10 - 14 14 - 18 18 - 22 22 - 26 26 - 30

Extreme event case study - IIHeat wave in West Europe - in October 2005

Observed 24-hour maximum temperature, 30 October 2005

Extreme events


Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005

40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

D+9


40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+7


40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


D+5


40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1


D+3


40°N

50°N

60°N

20°W

20°W

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1


D+1


Summary - I

After careful consideration and survey for demands, the range of extreme forecast products (forecast indices, maps) can be extended

New extreme indices (SOT, SPS) ?!

New parameters (Tmax, Tmin, Waves, etc) ?!

Extended forecast range (D+6 to monthly range – VAREPS) ?!

The new ERA40 based EPS control model re-forecasts provide more reliable base for any extreme forecast product at present or in the future

Further developments (possible use of EPS re-forecasts made for calibration purposes) ?!

The first set of verification results are encouraging

Need for detailed, quality controlled, representative observation climate


Summary - II

The first set of verification results are encouraging

The better climate sampling with the 30-year model climate seems to be reflected in the verification result by slightly better ROC for the new EFI

In terms of resolution the EFI also seems to over perform little bit the raw EPS probabilities for extreme events

However statistical calibration is heavily needed in order to decrease the strong over forecasting tendency of the EFI (taken directly as probability)

Lot of more work is needed to further investigate the characteristics and value of these extreme forecast products

ecmwf forecast products user meeting, e. zsoter, 14-16 june 2006 severe weather forecasts severe...

Documents

severe weather forecasts

efi slide

old climate efi

extreme events efi

efi maximum

new climate

monthly forecast system

efi example