ecoDREAMS-S: Modelling the impact of climate change on milk

performance in organic dairy farms in Spain

Alejandro Ruete, Antoni Velarde, Isabel Blanco-Penedo

Swedish Species Information Centre , Sweden

Animal Welfare Subprogram, IRTA, Catalonia

Heat stress, why it matters?

• Poor Animal welfare

• Restriction of farm efficiency

– reproductive behaviour & conception (Villagómez et al., 2000)

– Changes in milk quality (Bertocchi et al., 2014)

– Increased mortality risk (Vitali et al., 2009)

Slide 1

Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?

• Organic cows can better capture farm conditions by the interconnection environment-animal health-food quality

Slide 2

• Different breeds under organic management in Spain (select traits that suit better in organic)

Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?

• Matrix of farms with different management practices

– Tactical management: Annual decisions e.g. crop rotation planning,

fertilization planning, herd structure planning

– Operational management: Some farms have permanently outdoors

the cows

• Less metabolically challenged cows ?

• Organic farmers are also own dairy producers!

Slide 3

The study: heat stress in organic dairy farms in Spain

Introduction

• 35% of the total census of organic dairy farms in Spain.

• Geographical distribution:

– GREEN SPAIN MODEL (Atlantic, Oceanic, continental Mediterranean and mountain climate)

Slide 4

http://www.impro-dairy.eu/

Data source

• Primary data source (farm visits): welfare assessment (ABM,

resources)

• Cow Test-day milk records retrieved from the Spanish Milk

Recording Scheme (CONAFE) from January 2012 to October

2013

• Meteorological data (for THI index calculation) retrieved

from AEMET (State Meteorological Agency) for the same

period

Slide 5

EcoDREAMS-Spain: Ecological Dairy cows Response to Environmental And

Management Stress- Spain)

• Empirical modeling

– causality and

– effet sized infered with regressions

• Programming language used: JAGS thrugh R

Slide 6

• Response variables

– Individual Milk yield

– Individual milk composition (fat, protein)

– Somatic Cell Counts (SCC)

Level N

Farms 26

Parities 2013

Cows 1504

Measurements 15283

EcoDREAMS-Spain

Slide 7

• Explanatory variables

– Days in lactation (DIM)

– Temperature-humidity index (THI)

– Housing and building conditions (stall type and warm or

outdoor climate)

– Cow genetics

Slide 8

EcoDREAMS-Spain

MilkYield = γf * DIMβ * e-ρ * DIM + δ * THI OR + logitTHI logitTHI = 1 - (1/ 1+e(-THI + inf))

Model ΔDIC Note

Null 0

Woods 1967 (DIM) 2828

Woods + Farms 2828

Woods + THI 2866 Logit Cr=83

Woods + δTHI 2867 Cr=80, δ (+)

Linear 2802

Linear + δTHI 2925 δ (+)

EcoDREAMS-Spain

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Days in LactationSlide 10

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THI Slide 11

Further steps and needs

• Environment & Animal Welfare

• Management tools tailored to farm-specific conditions-(identifying the best options for buffering against climatic extremes for the future about animal welfare)

Slide 12

• Take “cow signals”= welfare challenge=predictors • Earlier detection, better prognostic (predictive models)

Many Thanks for your attention!

Eskerrik asko!!

Acknowledgement: Grant request to Alejandro Ruete