ecofy: increasing eu energy independence

8/21/2019 Ecofy: Increasing EU Energy Independence

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Increasing the EUs EnergyIndependence

Technical report


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Chamber of Commerce301611#1



Increasing the EUs EnergyIndependenceTechnical report

By: Pieter van Breevoort, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Hhne, Thomas Day, Rolf de Vos

Date: ! "#to$er !%&

Pro'e#t num$er: ()*D+%!-

Ecofys 2014 by order of: World Resorces Institte


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Table of contents

% *ntrodu#tion %

Natural gas .rodu#tion and im.orts in the +/

0 Natural gas demand in $uildings 1

!"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ %

!"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy (

& Natural gas demand in industry %!

4"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ 10

4"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy 11

Natural gas demand in energy su..ly %

)"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ 12

)"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy 1!

2 *m.li#ations for the +/ %

*"1 Energy de&and and spply 1)*"2 +,+ e&issions 1(

1 Notes on methodology %

%"1 -.er.ie' of scenarios 21

%"2 What is cost/effecti.e 22

%"! Rene'able energy gro'th rates 22

%"4 atral gas de.elop&ent in the energy spply sector 2!

%") cope 2!

Referen#es


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1

Introdction

#rrent geopolitical circ&stances5 co&bined 'ith depletion of do&estic natral gas resorces and

the threat of cli&ate change5 raise the 6estion of the e7tent to 'hich the EUs dependence on

natral gas i&ports can be decreased" Increasing do&estic natral gas prodction cold te&porarily

relie.e dependence on i&ported energy5 bt redcing de&and for natral gas 'ill ha.e a greater

i&pact on energy secrity o.er the long ter&" This can be achie.ed 'ith strengthened energy

efficiency and rene'able energy efforts5 'hich 'old also redce greenhose gas 8+,+9 e&issions"

This technical report addresses the potential for energy efficiency and rene'able energy to displace

natral gas se in the EU 2(5 and discsses the i&plications of this potential for energy secrity and

cli&ate change" It is acco&panied by a separate &&ary for olicy&a$ers" This report lays ot the

analysis presented in the &&ary5 and the nderlying ass&ptions and calclations in greater

detail" ;fter a brief o.er.ie' of the crrent sitation regarding natral gas dependence in Erope5

this report focses on the three &ain natral gas/cons&ing sectors: bildings5 indstry and energy

spply" Each chapter discsses the crrent stats and pro


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2

atral gas prodction and i&ports in the EU

In this section, we summarize the current state of natural gas production and expected developments

to 2030. While Europes primar energ consumption !gross inland consumption" did not grow

su#stantiall in the past two decades, Europes net import dependenc rate $ the ratio of netimport

to total consumption % did. &he increasing share of natural gas in Europes energ mix, com#ined with

slowl declining domestic production, increased Europes natural gas import dependenc rate as well.

'lthough under the current #usiness%as%usual !(')" scenario, natural gas demand increases onlslightl through 2030, the net%import increase is greater. &he proposed 2030 framewor* for climate

and energ policies would mitigate this trend, resulting in a decrease in the net%import of natural gas

relative to current imports, and a continuation of !#ut no decline in" the current net import

dependenc rate.

Histori# develo.ments

Energy cons&ption in Erope bet'een 1>>0 and 2012 'as relati.ely stable" ,o'e.er5 Eropes

do&estic energy prodction decreased by 1* per cent o.er this period and net/i&ports1increased by

&ore than 20 per cent" The i&port dependency2rate increased fro& 4) per cent in 1>>0 to )4 per

cent in 20128Erostat5 2014b9 8=igre 19"

1et/i&port is defined as: gross inland cons&ption B spply to international &ariti&e bn$ers C do&estic prodction2Erostat: ?89efined as net energy i&ports di.ided by gross inland energy cons&ption pls fel spplied to international &ariti&e

bn$ers5 e7pressed as a percentage"@ In case of natral gas5 fel spplied to international &ariti&e bn$ers is Dero"


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#3IE1)20( !

3igure % Primary energy demand and net im.orts in +uro.e $et4een %55! and !% 6+78year9

Source: +urostat !%&$

3oo$ing at natral gas cons&ption 8=igre 25 the pictre is different: 'hile total pri&ary energy

de&and has been stable5 natral gas de&and has increased by &ore than !0 per cent" ; &a>0 to ** per cent in 2012"

Gross inland consumption

Net imports

Net import dependency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Primary energy demand/net imports in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 4

3igure Natural gas .rimary energy demand and net im.orts in +uro.e $et4een %55! and !%6+78year9

Source: +urostat !%&a

atral gas prodction in Erope in 2012 totalled )"* EF5 i&ports 14"4 EF5 and e7ports !"* EF 8=igre

!9" Therefore5 Eropes net i&ports neared 11 EF" The largest e7porter to Erope 'as Rssia5 closely

follo'ed by or'ay" Aoth contries e7ported abot 4 EF in 2012 8Erostat5 2014a9"

Gross inland consumption

Net imports

Net import dependency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Natural gas primary energy demand/net imports in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( )

3igure 0 ;ey natural gas e


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#3IE1)20( *

decrease of %0 per cent 8,e$$enberg5 Lerdon$ 20149" ro


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#3IE1)20( %

!

atral gas de&and in bildings

In 20+2, the #uilt environment was the largest consumer of natural gas and final energ in Europe.

(uildings account for .- E, or 3/ per cent, of total natural gas consumption. f all economic

sectors, #uildings have the greatest energ efficienc potential1 # 2030, improved efficienc

measures could reduce natural gas demand to 3. E. Enhanced renewa#le energ capacit could

further reduce natural gas demand # an additional 0./ E to 2. E.

!"1 #rrent stats and otloo$

In Erope5 bildings se appro7i&ately 1( EF per year5 e6i.alent to 40 per cent of total final energy

cons&ption" T'o thirds of this energy is cons&ed in residential5 and one third in non/residential

bildings 8Erostat5 2014b9" Energy is cons&ed for space heating5 'ater heating5 space cooling5

coo$ing5 and electric appliances" In residential bildings5 () per cent of the energy is sed for

heating5 coo$ing and coolingO in non/residential bildings5 these ses accont for abot (0 per cent

of energy cons&ption" These shares are e7pected to decrease slightly5 o'ing to increased se of

electric appliances and i&pro.e&ents in the ther&al perfor&ance of bildings"

In 20125 natral gas cons&ption in bildings 'as *"4 EF5 pri&arily acconted for by heating and

coo$ing" The RIGE scenario 11pro


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#3IE1)20( (

3igure & 3inal energy demand in $uildings in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis

!"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy

In Erope5 the bilt en.iron&ent has a greater potential for energy sa.ing than any other sectorO

significant redctions can be &ade in energy de&and for heating5 in particlar5 throgh

i&pro.e&ents to the bilding en.elope and heating syste&s" The largest ntapped potential is in the

refrbish&ent of e7isting bildings: 'hile Eropean legislation enforces that early Pero/Energy

Aildings 8EPA9 'ill be standard fro& 2020 on'ards for ne' bildings5 e7isting bildings are not

sb


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#3IE1)20( >

;dditionally5 electricity de&and for appliances can be redced by nearly 0"% EF 8AoQ&ann et al"5

20129" In total5 energy de&and in bildings can be redced by arond ) EF5 co&pared to A;U 8see

=igre 495 of 'hich natral gas 'old accont for 2"! EF"14

In the bilt en.iron&ent5 additional rene'able energy 8for e7a&ple5 solar ther&al5 bio&ass9 cold

displace fossil fels sed for heating"1)If historic gro'th rates 82000/20109 'ere contined5 1 EF of

additional bio&ass 'old be sed in bildings co&pared to A;U5 redcing de&and for natral gas/

felled energy by an additional 0"> EF"

To s&&ariDe5 cost/effecti.e i&pro.e&ents in energy efficiency and realistic increases in rene'ableenergy se cold enable Erope to redce its de&and for natral gas in bildings by &ore than ! EF

in 20!0 co&pared to the A;U" This represents a redction of )( per cent relati.e to de&and for

natral gas in bildings in 2012"

14We ass&e the energy sa.ing potential for heating is distribted e6ally a&ong fossil fels: this &eans that the share of each fel in the

fossil fel &i7 re&ains the sa&e" ;dditional electricity se for heat p&ps is acconted for"1)In this stdy5 heat p&ps are regarded as energy efficiency &easres and not as rene'able energy" In the Eropean target5 the heat

e7tracted fro& the air and grond is acconted 8nder conditions9 as rene'able energy"


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#3IE1)20( 10

4

atral gas de&and in indstry

In 20+2, the industr sector was the third largest consumer of final energ as well as natural gas in

Europe. Industr accounted for 3. E, or 23 per cent, of total natural gas consumption. f all three

sectors investigated here, industr has the smallest energ efficienc potential1 # 2030, improved

efficienc measures could reduce natural gas demand to 3.+ E. Enhanced renewa#le energ capacit

could further reduce natural gas demand # an additional 0.+ E to 3.0 E.

4"1 #rrent stats and otloo$

The final energy de&and of the indstry sector in Erope 'as nearly 12 EF in 20125 or 2* per cent of

total final energy de&and 8Erostat5 2014b9" The che&ical sbsector and iron and steel prodction

cons&e the largest shares of energy5 each acconting for 20 per cent of total indstrial energy

cons&ption" ;lthogh coal is the pri&ary energy sorce for iron and steel prodction5 natral gas is

i&portant in &any indstrial processes" The che&ical indstry is the sb/sector 'ith the largest

cons&ption of natral gas 820 per cent of indstrial gas cons&ption95 follo'ed by non/&etallic

&ineral prodction 81) per cent9 and food and tobacco 81) per cent9"

3igure 3inal energy demand in industry in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios


;lthogh the energy intensity of indstry 'ill decline in the ftre5 the e7tent of the decline is not

sfficient to co&pensate for the increase in otpt e7pected nder the RIGE scenario" Indstrial

.olids

/il

Natural 'as

eat

#eneale ener'y

Electricity

.ain's industry 2 E

0*0

2*0

4*0

6*0

8*0

10*0

12*0

14*0

2012 2030 & Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency only

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency and

reneale ener'y

Final energy demand in industry in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 11

energy cons&ption is e7pected to increase 1 EF by 20!0O a notable e7ception to the sector/'ide

gro'th in energy de&and is the che&icals sbsector5 'here energy de&and is pro


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#3IE1)20( 12

)

atral gas de&and in energy spply

In 20+2, energ suppl sector was the second largest consumer natural gas in Europe. Energ suppl

accounted for -. E, or 30 per cent, of total natural gas consumption. Energ efficienc measures in

the demand sectors !#uildings and industr" can reduce natural gas consumption to 3.3 E in the

energ suppl sector, realistic development of renewa#le sources can further reduce natural gas

demand # an additional +.4 E to +. E in 2030.

)"1

#rrent stats and otloo$

Electricity and heat generation in 2012 cons&ed 2("% EF of pri&ary energy in order to generate

11"> EF 8!5!00 TWh9 of electricity and 2") EF of heat 8Erostat5 2014b9" Gost electricity is prodced

fro& coal and nclear po'erO !"4 EF 8>)0 TWh9 and !"2 EF 8((0 TWh9 respecti.ely" atral gas is the

third largest contribtor to electricity generation5 responsible for 2"1 EF 8)(0 EF9 of electricity" The

total pri&ary natral gas cons&ption for electricity and central heat generation 'as 4"( EF"

Rene'ables acconted for abot 24 per cent of the electricity generated in 2012" ,ydropo'er5

bio&ass5 and 'ind energy 'ere the largest rene'able energy sorces"

3igure 2 +le#tri#ity generation in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis

.olids

/il

Natural 'asNuclear

#eneale ener'y

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2030 & urrent 2030 E

)rameor

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency only

Ener'y

independence 2030

ener'y e))iciency

and renealeener'y

Electricity generation in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 1!

In the A;U scenario5 total electricity generation is e7pected to gro'5 as is the share of rene'able

energy 8to 42 per cent in 20!09" The gro'th in rene'able energy5 co&bined 'ith an increase in

efficiency of ther&al po'er generation5 reslts in a decrease of 2"* EF in the pri&ary energy inpt to

electricity plants5 despite the increase in electricity generation 8Eropean #o&&ission5 201!9"1>

)"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy

If the indstry and bildings sectors 'ere to i&ple&ent energy efficiency &easres that sa.e

electricity520as described in the pre.ios chapters5 electricity generation cold be decreased by 1"4

EF in 20!0 co&pared to the RIGE scenario" This 'old redce natral gas de&and by 1"> EF belo'

the RIGE scenario or 1") EF belo' 2012"

21

If rene'able energy gro'th &aintains the trend of 2000/2010522electricity generated by rene'ables

'old gro' fro& )"* EF 81))0 TWh9 to *"( EF 81(>0 TWh9" This increase in rene'able electricity

'old redce natral gas de&and by another 1") EF"

1>In energy statistics5 non/ther&al rene'able energy generation 8for e7a&ple 'ind energy5 solar L and hydropo'er9 ha.e a 100 per cent

efficiency"20=el sa.ings are acconted for in the respecti.e sectors5 in this sector 'e accont only for electricity and heat sa.ings21We ass&e that electricity sa.ings and a gro'th in rene'able energy are at the e7pense of fossil fels and not at the e7pense of nclear

po'er and rene'able energy generation" =rther&ore5 'e ass&e that the fossil fel &i7 re&ains the sa&e22=or a discssion on the ass&ptions sed here for the gro'th and share of rene'able energy please see ection %"!


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#3IE1)20( 14

3igure 1 Primary energy in.ut for ele#tri#ity and #entral heat generation in +uro.e in !% and !0!under different s#enarios


.olids

/il

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Nuclear

#eneale ener'y

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2030 & Ener'y independence

2030 ener'y e))iciency

only

Ener'y independence

2030 ener'y e))iciency

and reneale ener'y

Primary energy use for heat and electricity in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 1)

*

I&plications for the EU

&his section draws together the sector specific analses and discusses the implications at the E)

level. We show that the primar energ suppl can #e made significantl less dependent on natural

gas if the *ind of energ efficienc and renewa#le energ measures discussed in this paper are

implemented. 5urthermore, European greenhouse gas emissions can #e reduced well #elow the

currentl proposed -0 per cent target # 2030 and could reach levels that !without the need for

international car#on offsets", are in line with what might #e considered a 6fair7 target for the E). &hishas important implications for E) polic%ma*ing, allowing the E) to set a high #ar for emissions

reductions in the international climate negotiations.

*"1 Energy de&and and spply

In 20125 pri&ary energy de&and in Erope 'as &et principally by fossil fel sorces 8*) per cent9O

natral gas 'as the second largest fossil energy carrier after oil5 'ith a share of 2! per cent of total

energy spply" Rene'able energy sorces played a significant bt &ore &odest role5 pro.iding 11

per cent of the pri&ary energy de&and" The share of rene'ables see&s li$ely to contine its gro'th

into the ftre5 dri.en by the EU Rene'able Energy pply directi.e of 200> 8Eropean #o&&ission

200>95 'hich sets a 20 per cent rene'able energy target in 2020 and re6ires &e&ber states to

i&ple&ent &easres accordingly" In addition5 energy efficiency also see&s li$ely to play a roleO

energy intensity 'ill decrease by !0 per cent by 20!0 8relati.e to 20129 according to the RIGE

scenario 8Eropean #o&&ission 201!9"

Aased on or calclations for energy efficiency and rene'able energy in the indstry and bildings

sectors5 'e esti&ate that cost/effecti.e energy efficiency &easres in these t'o sectors cold redce

final energy de&and by an additional % EF co&pared to the RIGE scenario5 'hich is at !1 EF in

20!0 8=igre (9" ;ss&ing that rene'able energy 'ill contine its historic gro'th rates and that

energy de&and redctions in the t'o sectors are shared o.er the fossil fel carriers as described inections !"2 and 4"25 then dependence on natral gas 'old be redced" We esti&ate that the share

of natral gas in final energy de&and 'ill be redced fro& !1 per cent nder the RIGE scenario to

24 per cent5 a fll % percentage points lo'er" This e7tra redction 'ill be achie.ed only if both energy

efficiency &easres and rene'able energy gains are i&ple&ented" In absolte n&bers this &eans

that the se of natral gas can be redced by 4 EF"


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#3IE1)20( 1*

3igure - 3inal energy demand $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis

Increased se of rene'able sorces in the energy spply sector can frther redce dependence on

fossil fels" The pri&ary inpt to central electricity and heat generation can be redced5 according to

or calclations5 by 4"2 EF do'n fro& 2*") EF nder the A;U" Together 'ith the increased se of

rene'able energy sorces this can redce the se of natral gas by !"4 EF do'n fro& )"2 EF nder

the A;U"

;ss&ing the potential for the sectors described abo.e is realiDed in fll5 the total pri&ary energy

de&and 8+rror> Referen#e sour#e not found9 can be decreased by 1! per cent nder the SEnergy

independence 20!0 8energy efficiency only9 scenario and 14 per cent nder the SEnergy

independence 20!0 8energy efficiency and rene'able energy9 scenario co&pare to the RIGE

scenario" With respect to natral gas both5 energy efficiency and rene'able energy &easres5 lead to

a redction in the share of natral gas in pri&ary energy de&and fro& 2) per cent nder the A;U to

20 per cent nder Senergy efficiency only to 1* per cent nder Senergy efficiency and rene'ables" In

total5 energy efficiency and rene'able energy &easres as described abo.e are able to redce the

share of natral gas by > percentage points5 or %"4 EF5 co&pared to the A;U forecast5 do'n to 1* per

cent 8>"4 EF9 of total pri&ary energy spply in 20!0 8=igre 109"

.olids

/il

Natural 'as

eat

#eneale ener'y

Electricity

.ain's 7 E

0

5

1015

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 2030 & Ener'y

independence 2030

ener'y e))iciency

only

Ener'y

independence 2030

ener'y e))iciency

and reneale

ener'y

Final energy demand in Europe [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 1%

3igure 5 Primary energy demand $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under differents#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis

The 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policy 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014a95 according to the

i&pact assess&ent 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014b95 'ill be able to decrease pri&ary energy de&and

by 12 per cent belo' A;U" i&ltaneosly the share of natral gas in total pri&ary energy de&and

'ill be redced by only for percentage points co&pared to the A;U points to 21 per cent" ;s 'e

ha.e tried to sho'5 concerted efforts in energy efficiency and rene'ables 'ill ha.e a real effect on

natral gas dependencyO sch efforts can redce natral gas cons&ption by nine percentage points5

a redction that is &ore than doble the potential i&pact of the 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and

energy policy sggests 8for percentage points9"

.olids

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Nuclear

#eneale ener'y

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2030 & urrent 2030 E

)rameor

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency only

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency and

reneale

ener'y

Primary energy demand in Europe

in 2012 and 2030 in di))erent scenarios [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 1(

3igure %! )eading e>0O they 'ill be redced to

!1 per cent lo'er than 1>>0 le.els nder the RIGE scenario and cold be redced frther to 42 per

cent belo' 1>>0 le.els if the proposed 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for #li&ate and Energy olicies is

i&ple&ented" -r calclations sho' that energy efficiency &easres alone cold redce e&issions by

4* per cent co&pared to 1>>0 le.els" otential energy efficiency &easres in the transport sector

ha.e not been inclded in or calclations"

2!ote the bar ?E7porters to Erope in 2012? sho's the absolte i&port to Erope5 the bars labelled as net i&port sho' the absolte

i&port/e7ports24Energy related e&ission 'ere calclated based on the pri&ary energy de&and calclations as presented in +rror> Referen#e sour#e not

foundand sing e&ission factors fro& the I##

#ussia$ 4

Noray$ 4

&l'eria$ 2

(atar$ 1

Not speci)ied$ 3

Net import

,roduction

,rimary ener'y

demand$ 12*3

16*4 16*7

12*511*9

9*4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

E+porters to

Europe in

2012

1990 2012 2030 & urrent 2030

E )rameor

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency

only

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency and

reneale

ener'y

Europe's natural gas import, consumption and production [E!year"


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#3IE1)20( 1>

3igure %% +nergy related emissions $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under differents#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&a, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis

Total +,+ e&issions5 inclding land se5 land/se change and forestry 83U3U#=95 cold be redced to

4> per cent belo' 1>>0 le.els according to or calclations" The crrent 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for #li&ate

and Energy olicies ass&es that little or no effort 'ill be nderta$en to redce e&issions fro& non/

energy sorces"2)While non/energy e&issions ha.e &ore li&ited potential than energy/related

e&issions5 e&issions fro& agricltre5 as 'ell as 3U3U#= e&issions5 ha.e stabilised or e.endecreased slightly in past years 8EE; 20149" =rther&ore5 as already &entioned5 or calclations do

not ta$e accont of possible e&ission redctions in the transport sector" ,ence5 the potential e7ists

to redce e&issions beyond 4> per cent belo' 1>>0 le.els"

; 4> per cent redction belo' 1>>0 e&ission le.els is argably in line 'ith 'hat &ight be considered

a ?fair@ contribtion by the EU to'ards the global effort to li&it global 'ar&ing to 2# abo.e

preindstrial le.els" In an earlier stdy 8Ecofys 201!b95 'e sho'ed that the range of effort sharing

approaches reslts in an a.erage e&ission redction target of 4> per cent belo' 1>>0" +i.en that the

2);ccording to or o'n calclations5 the 40M is based on a calclation that ass&es that non/energy e&issions 'ill increase nder the

energy and cli&ate pac$age"

.olids

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Natural 'as

#eductions elo 1990$

14%

31%

42%46%

53%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2012 2030 & urrent 2030 E

)rameor

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency only

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency and

renealeener'y

Energy related emissions in Europe [:t/2year"


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#3IE1)20( 20

stdy presented here ses only cost/effecti.e energy efficiency i&pro.e&ent and realistic rene'able

energy gro'th5 it 'old be in the EUs interest to ta$e fll ad.antage of this sitation and reiterate its

position as role &odel in the international cli&ate negotiations by ptting for'ard a &ore a&bitios

do&estic e&ission redction target than that proposed" -r analysis sho's that the EU cold ta$e

the lead in ptting for'ard an ?intended nationally deter&ined contribtion SI#@ that represents a

fair contribtion to a ne' international cli&ate agree&ent"

3igure % Total emissions @in#luding land use, land?use #hange and forestryA in +uro.e in !% and!0! under different s#enarios

Source: +urostat !%&a, ++ !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis

#eductions elo 1990$

21%

32%

40%43%

49%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2012 2030 & urrent 2030 E

)rameor

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency only

Ener'y

independence

2030 ener'y

e))iciency and

reneale ener'y

;otal c


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%

otes on &ethodology

%"1 -.er.ie' of scenarios

Ta$le %: "vervie4 of s#enarios used in this re.ort

=#enarioTime

horiCon

Name as

used in te


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#3IE1)20( 22

"

%"2 What is cost/effecti.e

In this stdy 'e consider cost/effecti.e potential as defined by =ranhofer II 8AoQ&ann et al"5

20129" In the stdy by AoQ&ann et al" 8201295 abot )0 per cent of the potential in the bilding

sector and t'o thirds of the potential in the indstry sector are considered cost/effecti.e at high

discont rates 8( per cent for bildings5 !0 per cent for indstry95 'hile the rest of the in.est&entsare cost/effecti.e o.er the lifeti&e of &easres and at higher fel prices than sed in the RIGE

scenario 8AoQ&ann et al"5 20129" If 'e aggregate all &easres 8as done for this stdy95 the potential

is financially beneficial5 bt policy effort is needed to sti&late so&e of the indi.idal &easres and

o.erco&e barriers"

=rther&ore AoQ&annn et al" 820129 list frther technical energy efficiency potential that goes

beyond 'hat is considered here" These additional &easres are not cost/effecti.e5 e.en at higher fel

prices" ,o'e.er5 the &onetary sa.ings fro& the cost/effecti.e &easres cold &ore than co.er the

additional costs fro& the &ore e7pensi.e &easres"

%"! Rene'able energy gro'th rates

In this stdy 'e loo$ at gro'th rates that 'ere achie.ed in Erope in the period 2000/2010 8'ithot

heat/p&ps9 and apply these gro'th rates bet'een 2012 and 20!0" These gro'th rates 'ere:

!") per cent per year for heating 8in bildings and indstry9

4"> per cent per year for electricity 8otpt9

=or rene'ables in electricity generation the abo.e &entioned gro'th rates reslt in a )( per cent

share of rene'ables by 20!05 'hich is nearly nine percentage points higher than pro


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#3IE1)20( 2!

Ta$le : =hare of rene4a$le energy in #entral ele#tri#ity generation a##ording to different s#enarios

=#enarioR+ share in ele#tri#ity in !0!

@A

IE; World Energy -tloo$ 20125 4)0 pp& scenario 8IE; 20129 )% 820!)9

Ecofys Energy report scenario for Erope 8Ecofys 201!9 *)

+reenpeace Energy rKe.oltion scenario 8+reenpeace 20129 %1

20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policies 8Eropean

#o&&ission 2014a and 2014b94>"!

Energy efficiency and rene'able energy scenario 8o'n calclations9 -

%"4 atral gas de.elop&ent in the energy spply sector

This stdy ass&es that5 as the share of rene'ables in electricity generation increases5 the decrease

in de&and for natral gas is proportional to decreases in de&and for other fossil fels" The reslting

share of natral gas in electricity generation by 20!05 according to this report5 is > per cent5 'hich is

in line 'ith calclations of the World Energy -tloo$ 8WE-9 4)0pp& scenario5 as sho'n in Table !"

The Energy RKe.oltion scenario calclates a &ch higher share for natral gas in 20!05 since the

share of nclear energy in this scenario is redced nearly to Dero by 20!05 'hilst in the WE- scenario

the share of nclear energy contines to increase slightly"

Ta$le 0: =hare of natural gas in ele#tri#ity generation a##ording to different s#enarios

=#enarioNatural gas share in ele#tri#ity in !0!

@A

IE; World Energy -tloo$ 2012 4)0 pp& scenario 8IE;

201!9( 820!)9

+reenpeace Energy rKe.oltion scenario 8+reenpeace

201292%

This re.ort 5

Recent historical data a.ailable fro& +er&any spport the ass&ptions &ade abot the potential for

natral gas de&and redctions alongside increasing shares of rene'ables" Whilst the share of

rene'ables increased in +er&any bet'een 2010 and 201! fro& 1* per cent to 24 per cent5 the share

of natral gas decreased fro& 14 per cent to 11 per cent5 and the share of coal increased fro& 42 per

cent to 4) per cent 8Ecofys 2014c9"

%") cope

Regional s#o.e: When referring to Erope5 'e refer to the EU2( contries"

Primary energy demand: pri&ary energy de&and 8or gross inland cons&ption9 incldes non/

energy se" ,o'e.er5 final energy demanddoes not inclde non/energy cons&ption"


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#3IE1)20( 2)

References

AoQ&ann5 T"5 Eichha&&er5 W"5 Elsland5 R" 820129" #ontribtion of energy efficiency &easres to

cli&ate protection 'ithin the Eropean Union ntil 20)0" Harlsrhe" Retrie.ed fro&

http:NN'''"isi"franhofer"deNisi/

';ssetsNdocsNeNdeNpbli$ationenNAegleitberichtJ#ontribtion/to/cli&ate/protectionJfinal"pdf

E##" 820149" -il and +as rodction ro


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#3IE1)20( 2*

Eropean #o&&ission 82014b9" I&pact ;ssess&ent / Energy Efficiency and its contribtion to energy

secrity and the 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policy / #o&&nication fro& the

#o&&ission to the Eropean arlia&ent and the #oncil" Arssels"

Eropean #o&&ission" 82014c9" #-GGUI#;TI- =R-G T,E #-GGII- T- T,E EUR-E;

;R3I;GET ; T,E #-U#I3 Eropean Energy ecrity trategy ZW820149 !!0 final["

Arssels5 Aelgi&" Retrie.ed fro&

http:NNec"eropa"eNenergyNdocN20140)2(JenergyJsecrityJco&&nication"pdf

Erostat 82014a9" I&ports 8by contry of origin9 / gas / annal data nrgJ124aK 3ast pdate: 14/0)/

2014" Retrie.ed fro& http:NNepp"erostat"ec"eropa"eNportalNpageNportalNerostatNho&eN

Erostat 82014b9" pply5 transfor&ation5 cons&ption / all prodcts / annal data nrgJ100aK 3ast

pdate: !0/0%/2014" Retrie.ed fro&http:NNepp"erostat"ec"eropa"eNportalNpageNportalNerostatNho&eN

+reenpeace" 820129" energy rKe.oltion / ; sstainable 'orld energy otloo$" Retrie.ed fro&

http:NN'''"greenpeace"orgNinternationalN+lobalNinternationalNpblicationsNcli&ateN2012NEner

gy Re.oltion 2012NER2012"pdf

,e$$enberg5 Gichiel O Lerdon$5 G" 820149" ationale Energie.er$enning" Retrie.ed fro&

http:NN'''"pbl"nlNNsitesNdefaltNfilesNc&sNpblicatiesNpbl/2014/nationale/energie.er$enning/

2014/tabellenbi


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Kanaalweg 15G3526 KL Utrecht

$%&' *etherlan ,!!

Kanaalweg 15G3526 KL Utrecht

ecofy: increasing eu energy independence

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