ecography ecog-01024 · ecography ecog-01024 terraube, j., villers, a ... mean snow cover in fall...
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Ecography ECOG-01024Terraube, J., Villers, A., Ruffino, L., Iso-Iivari, L., Henttonen, H., Oksanen, T. and Korpimäki, E. 2014. Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population-level response of a specialist avian predator. – Ecography doi: 10.1111/ecog.01024
Supplementary material
Appendix 1: Location of the Kevo study area in Finnish Lapland. Dashed lines correspond to
the valleys that have been monitored every year from 1985 to 2005. The background image
corresponds to a Digital Elevation Model, with a scale going from white (low altitude) to
black (high altitude > 1000 m.). The black solid line represents the border between Finland
and Norway.
Appendix 2: Wavelet analysis of the lemming abundance index at Kevo study site,
suggesting a lack of periodicity during most of the time series. The last two years of the data
set suggest the return of lemming cycles but remain unclear regarding the period of this cycle
(2 or 4 years).
Appendix 3 Temporal trends for the six climate variables tested according to different
periods. When significant, mean ± s.e. of the trend is presented.
Temperatures Slope ± se P
Yearly mean 0.04 ± 0.01 p < 0.01 **Breeding p = 0.18 NSBrooding p = 0.39 NSMay p= 0.30 NSJune p = 0.38 NSJuly p = 0.52 NSFall 0.08 ± 0.03 p < 0.01 **
Number of hot daysYearly mean - p = 0.6 NSBreeding - p = 0.57 NSBrooding - p = 0.56 NSMay - p = 0.9 NSJune -0.014 ± 0.005 p < 0.05 *July - p = 0.22 NS
Number of cold daysYearly mean -0.002 ± 0.0006 p < 0.001 ***Breeding -0.008 ± 0.002 p < 0.001 ***Brooding -0.025 ± 0.007 p < 0.001 ***May -0.006 ± 0.002 p < 0.01 **June -0.027 ± 0.008 p < 0.001 ***July no freezing days in July
Number of days with heavy rainfallYearly sum 0.007 ± 0.005 p = 0.055 .Breeding 0.009 ± 0.005 p = 0.075 .Brooding - p = 0.127 NSMay - p = 0.18 NSJune 0.021 ± 0.009 p < 0.05 *July - p = 0.84 NS
Amount of rainfallYearly sum p = 0.2 NSBreeding 0.90 ± 0.43 p = 0.04 *Brooding - p = 0.14 NSMay 0.29 ± 0.16 p = 0.07 .June 0.43 ± 0.23 p = 0.06 .July p = 0.50 NSFall - p =0.65 NS
SnowMean snow cover in May -0.3 ± 0.13 p < 0.05 *Date of snow melt in Spring -0.19 ± 0.07 p < 0.01 **Mean snow cover in fall -0.12 ± 0.10 P=0.245 NS
Appendix 4: Model selection for winter population growth rate of voles. LVt1 and LVt3 refer
to vole abundance at lags of 6 and 18 months. s() stands for a smoothing term in the GAM
modelling. Rfals: rainfall in fall, Sfals: mean snow cover in fall, Tfals: mean temperature in
fall, Rwins, Swins and Twins are the same variables for the winter period. Time is a
continuous variable in order to account for temporal trends.
Models AICc K ΔAICc wi ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rfals * Sfals 1005.04 10 0.00 0.38 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins, Tfals) 1008.83 10 3.80 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals, Tfals) 1009.68 10 4.64 0.04 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins * Rfals 1009.86 10 4.82 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rfals + Tfals 1010.01 9 4.98 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rfals * Tfals 1010.25 10 5.21 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rfals + Sfals 1010.25 9 5.21 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins + Rfals 1010.47 9 5.43 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins * Tfals 1010.67 10 5.63 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins, Tfals) 1010.82 10 5.79 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals, Sfals) 1010.95 10 5.91 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + Sfals 1010.96 10 5.92 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins, Rfals) 1011.02 10 5.99 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins * Sfals 1011.11 10 6.07 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins + Tfals 1011.34 9 6.30 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals) + Twins 1011.41 10 6.37 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals, Sfals) 1011.42 10 6.39 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins + Sfals 1011.52 9 6.48 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + Twins 1011.55 10 6.51 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + Tfals 1011.60 10 6.56 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals) + Sfals 1011.76 10 6.73 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals) + Rfals 1012.01 10 6.98 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Sfals) + Rfals 1012.38 10 7.34 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals) + Swins 1012.43 10 7.39 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Rfals 1012.47 10 7.43 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins * Rfals 1012.55 10 7.51 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins, Rfals) 1012.62 10 7.58 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins + Rfals 1012.72 9 7.68 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tfals + Sfals 1013.00 9 7.96 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Tfals 1013.34 10 8.30 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + s(Tfals) 1013.45 11 8.41 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins, Sfals) 1013.52 10 8.49 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tfals * Sfals 1013.53 10 8.50 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Sfals) + Twins 1013.54 10 8.50 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + s(Rfals) 1013.55 11 8.51 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Sfals 1013.55 10 8.52 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + s(Tfals) 1013.60 11 8.56 0.01
~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + Swins 1013.69 10 8.66 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tfals) + s(Sfals) 1013.77 11 8.73 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rfals) + s(Sfals) 1013.93 11 8.89 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins + Tfals 1013.98 9 8.94 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + s(Tfals) 1014.44 11 9.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Rfals 1014.72 10 9.68 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Sfals) + Tfals 1015.00 10 9.96 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins * Tfals 1015.60 10 10.56 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + s(Sfals) 1015.62 11 10.59 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + s(Rfals) 1015.81 11 10.77 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Tfals 1015.98 10 10.94 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins + Sfals 1016.45 9 11.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins + Swins 1017.27 9 12.24 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Swins * Sfals 1017.43 10 12.39 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Sfals) + Swins 1018.45 10 13.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins, Sfals) 1018.45 10 13.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Sfals 1018.45 10 13.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins * Swins 1018.65 10 13.62 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Swins 1019.27 10 14.24 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Twins 1019.27 10 14.24 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins, Swins) 1019.28 10 14.24 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + s(Sfals) 1020.45 11 15.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + s(Swins) 1021.27 11 16.24 0.00
Appendix 5: Model selection for winter population growth rate of voles. LVt1 and LVt3 refer
to vole abundance at lags of 6 and 18 months. s() stands for a smoothing term in the GAM
modelling. Rfals: rainfall in fall, Sfals: mean snow cover in fall, Tfals: mean temperature in
fall, Rwins, Swins and Twins, Rsprs, Ssprs and Tsprs, Rsums, and Tsum are the same
variables for the winter, spring and summer period respectively. Time is a continuous
variable in order to account for temporal trends.
Models AICc K ΔAICc wi
~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins + Swins 1356.86 9 0.00 0.19 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsprs + Twins 1359.03 9 2.17 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Twins * Swins 1359.08 10 2.22 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Twins 1359.09 10 2.23 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Swins 1359.09 10 2.23 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins, Swins) 1359.09 10 2.23 0.06 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums * Twins 1360.41 10 3.55 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums + Twins 1360.67 9 3.81 0.03 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Ssprs + Twins 1360.97 9 4.11 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Twins 1361.06 9 4.20 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs + Twins 1361.11 9 4.25 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Twins 1361.26 10 4.40 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Tsprs 1361.26 10 4.40 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs, Twins) 1361.26 10 4.40 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsprs * Twins 1361.26 10 4.40 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + s(Swins) 1361.34 11 4.48 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs, Twins) 1361.54 10 4.68 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs, Twins) 1361.88 10 5.03 0.02 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + Twins 1361.99 10 5.13 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Twins 1362.46 10 5.60 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Ssprs 1362.77 10 5.91 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Twins 1362.89 10 6.03 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums, Twins) 1362.89 10 6.03 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Tsums 1362.89 10 6.03 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Ssprs * Twins 1363.03 10 6.17 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Ssprs 1363.19 10 6.33 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs * Twins 1363.26 10 6.40 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Twins 1363.28 10 6.42 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Twins 1363.29 10 6.43 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Rsums 1363.29 10 6.43 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Twins) 1363.29 10 6.43 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Twins) + Rsprs 1363.34 10 6.48 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + s(Twins) 1363.51 11 6.65 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums + Swins 1363.96 9 7.10 0.01
~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Ssprs) 1364.06 10 7.20 0.01 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + s(Twins) 1364.24 11 7.38 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + s(Twins) 1364.71 11 7.85 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsprs + Swins 1364.95 9 8.09 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + s(Twins) 1365.14 11 8.28 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs + Swins 1365.15 9 8.29 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Swins 1365.16 9 8.30 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Swins 1365.22 10 8.36 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums + Tsprs 1365.32 9 8.46 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums + Ssprs 1365.32 9 8.46 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Twins) 1365.54 11 8.68 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs, Ssprs) 1365.55 10 8.70 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums * Ssprs 1366.05 10 9.19 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Tsums 1366.10 9 9.24 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums * Swins 1366.16 10 9.30 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums + Rsprs 1366.16 9 9.30 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Tsums 1366.19 10 9.33 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Swins 1366.19 10 9.33 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums, Swins) 1366.19 10 9.33 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Ssprs + Tsprs 1366.22 9 9.36 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs, Tsprs) 1366.22 10 9.36 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + Tsums 1366.22 10 9.36 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Swins 1366.27 10 9.41 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs + Ssprs 1366.33 9 9.47 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Ssprs 1366.35 9 9.49 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Ssprs * Tsprs 1366.49 10 9.63 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs * Swins 1366.58 10 9.72 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs + Tsprs 1366.59 9 9.73 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Tsprs 1366.66 9 9.80 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums, Ssprs) 1366.94 10 10.08 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsprs * Swins 1366.95 10 10.09 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums * Tsprs 1367.01 10 10.15 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums + Rsprs 1367.01 9 10.15 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs, Swins) 1367.17 10 10.31 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Swins 1367.17 10 10.32 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Tsprs 1367.17 10 10.32 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs, Swins) 1367.25 10 10.39 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Tsums 1367.37 10 10.51 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Rsprs 1367.38 10 10.52 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Swins 1367.39 10 10.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Swins) 1367.39 10 10.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Swins) + Rsums 1367.39 10 10.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Tsprs 1367.53 10 10.67 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Tsprs 1367.54 10 10.68 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Tsums 1367.54 10 10.68 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums, Tsprs) 1367.54 10 10.68 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Ssprs 1367.55 10 10.69 0.00
~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs, Tsprs) 1367.56 10 10.71 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs * Ssprs 1367.57 10 10.71 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Tsums 1367.81 10 10.95 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + Rsprs 1367.92 10 11.06 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + Tsprs 1367.93 10 11.07 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + Rsums 1367.95 10 11.09 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Ssprs 1368.02 10 11.16 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Tsprs 1368.14 10 11.28 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + Rsums 1368.23 10 11.37 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Rsums 1368.33 10 11.47 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Tsums) 1368.33 10 11.47 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Tsums 1368.33 10 11.47 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Tsums * Rsprs 1368.38 10 11.52 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums, Rsprs) 1368.39 10 11.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + Rsprs 1368.39 10 11.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + s(Swins) 1368.44 11 11.58 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Ssprs 1368.44 10 11.58 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + s(Ssprs) 1368.48 11 11.62 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + s(Swins) 1368.52 11 11.66 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Ssprs 1368.57 10 11.71 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Rsprs) 1368.60 10 11.74 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsprs * Tsprs 1368.77 10 11.91 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + Rsums * Rsprs 1368.81 10 11.95 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums, Tsprs) 1368.81 10 11.95 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Rsprs 1368.82 10 11.96 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + Rsums 1368.89 10 12.03 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Tsprs 1368.89 10 12.03 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + Rsprs 1369.24 10 12.38 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsprs) + s(Swins) 1369.43 11 12.57 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + s(Ssprs) 1369.57 11 12.71 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + s(Rsprs) 1369.62 11 12.76 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Swins) 1369.64 11 12.78 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Tsums) + s(Tsprs) 1369.79 11 12.93 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Ssprs) + s(Tsprs) 1370.18 11 13.32 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Ssprs) 1370.20 11 13.34 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsprs) + s(Tsprs) 1370.39 11 13.53 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Rsprs) 1370.48 11 13.62 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Tsums) 1370.58 11 13.72 0.00 ~ LVt1 + LVt3 + s(Time) + s(Rsums) + s(Tsprs) 1371.14 11 14.28 0.00
Appendix 6: Model selection results (all models) for prey abundance and climatic factors that influence variation in breeding timing of Rough-legged
buzzards (Sn0s: last day in spring with snow; LogRodFors: rodent abundance; RfMays: summed precipitation in May; TpMays: mean temperature in
May; Breedsubs: breeding substrate).
Models AICc K ΔAICc wi
~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3061.62 7 0.00 0.14 ~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3061.75 6 0.13 0.13 ~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3062.65 8 1.03 0.09 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3062.66 7 1.03 0.09 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3062.83 8 1.21 0.08 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3062.89 9 1.26 0.08 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3062.97 10 1.35 0.07 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3064.24 9 2.62 0.04 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3064.54 8 2.92 0.03 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3065.55 9 3.92 0.02 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3065.65 8 4.03 0.02 ~ Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3066.35 5 4.73 0.01 ~ Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3066.42 4 4.80 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3066.57 9 4.95 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3066.58 10 4.96 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3066.77 10 5.15 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3066.83 11 5.21 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3066.92 12 5.29 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3067.81 10 6.19 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3067.82 11 6.19 0.01 ~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3067.88 5 6.26 0.01
~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3067.91 6 6.29 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3067.97 11 6.35 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3068.03 10 6.40 0.01 ~ RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3068.04 5 6.42 0.01 ~ RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3068.17 6 6.54 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3068.20 11 6.57 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3068.47 10 6.85 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3068.80 12 7.18 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3068.82 11 7.20 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3068.96 11 7.34 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.02 12 7.40 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3069.12 12 7.49 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.13 13 7.50 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.19 14 7.56 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3069.21 12 7.58 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.25 7 7.63 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.29 13 7.67 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3069.36 6 7.74 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3069.36 14 7.74 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3069.62 7 8.00 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3070.34 7 8.72 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3070.39 6 8.76 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3070.53 8 8.91 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.55 13 8.93 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.61 12 8.98 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.63 13 9.00 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.65 13 9.02 0.00
~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.72 12 9.10 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3070.86 12 9.24 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3071.14 8 9.51 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3071.26 9 9.63 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3071.26 7 9.64 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3071.63 13 10.00 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3071.66 14 10.04 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3071.87 7 10.25 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3071.93 8 10.30 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3071.95 14 10.33 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3072.00 15 10.38 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3072.03 7 10.40 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3072.06 16 10.44 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3072.14 9 10.52 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3072.15 8 10.53 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3072.17 8 10.55 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3073.27 9 11.65 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) 3073.37 8 11.75 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3073.39 15 11.76 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:Sn0s 3073.54 14 11.91 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3073.63 9 12.01 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3073.65 9 12.03 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3073.72 10 12.09 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3073.80 9 12.17 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3073.98 10 12.35 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3074.33 9 12.70 0.00
~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3074.47 10 12.85 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3074.57 10 12.95 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3075.08 11 13.45 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3075.13 10 13.50 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3075.18 10 13.55 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3075.29 9 13.66 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3075.31 11 13.68 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3075.44 11 13.82 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpMays 3075.80 11 14.18 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3075.89 10 14.26 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3076.25 11 14.62 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3076.37 12 14.74 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3076.46 11 14.83 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3076.62 12 15.00 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays 3076.96 12 15.34 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays 3077.04 11 15.42 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3077.07 13 15.45 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpMays 3077.16 12 15.54 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays 3077.79 12 16.16 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays 3077.81 11 16.19 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3077.90 13 16.28 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3077.97 13 16.35 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3078.01 12 16.39 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s 3078.40 13 16.77 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:TpMays 3079.32 14 17.70 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays 3079.93 14 18.31 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays 3079.94 13 18.32 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + Sn0s + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + Breedsubs:Sn0s + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3080.04 15 18.42 0.00
~ LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3480.67 8 419.05 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3483.92 12 422.29 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3484.13 7 422.50 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3484.18 6 422.56 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays + LogRodFors:TpMays 3484.46 10 422.84 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3485.84 5 424.22 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3485.92 7 424.29 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 3485.99 4 424.36 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3486.22 6 424.59 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) 3486.70 5 425.08 0.00 ~ (1 | Year) 3486.82 3 425.19 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays 3486.91 11 425.29 0.00 ~ LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3487.08 6 425.46 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpMays 3487.16 10 425.54 0.00 ~ TpMays + (1 | Year) 3487.28 4 425.66 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3487.87 9 426.24 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3487.92 8 426.30 0.00 ~ RfMays + (1 | Year) 3488.28 4 426.66 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3488.38 9 426.76 0.00 ~ RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3488.62 5 427.00 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3488.77 8 427.15 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpMays 3488.98 11 427.35 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3489.01 10 427.39 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3489.54 7 427.91 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpMays 3489.67 9 428.05 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 3489.68 6 428.05 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors 3489.72 9 428.10 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3489.94 8 428.32 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) + Breedsubs:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfMays 3490.20 10 428.57 0.00
~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) 3490.42 7 428.80 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + (1 | Year) 3490.44 5 428.81 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + LogRodFors + RfMays + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfMays 3490.82 8 429.19 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3490.90 6 429.27 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + (1 | Year) 3491.93 6 430.30 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + RfMays + TpMays + (1 | Year) 3492.26 7 430.64 0.00
Appendix 7: Model selection results (∆AICc<5) for prey abundance and climatic factors influencing variation in breeding success of Rough-legged
buzzards (TpJJs: mean temperatures in June-July; RfJJs: summed precipitation in June-July;HotH015s: number of days with > 23°C during the first two
weeks after hatching; ColdH015s: number of days with minimal temperature < 0ºC during the first two weeks after hatching; LRfH015s: number of days
with more than 10 mm of rain during the first two weeks after hatching; ChAges: age of the chicks at ringing; Breedsubs: breeding substrate;
LogRodFors: rodent abundance; LDjuls: laying date).
Models AICc K ΔAICc wi ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1904.54 5 0.00 0.04 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1905.22 7 0.68 0.03 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1905.36 4 0.81 0.03 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1905.99 9 1.45 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1906.00 8 1.46 0.02 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1906.04 6 1.49 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1906.31 6 1.77 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1906.39 6 1.85 0.02 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1906.39 6 1.85 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1906.51 6 1.96 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1906.53 6 1.99 0.02 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1906.56 6 2.02 0.02 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1906.58 6 2.03 0.02 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1906.61 8 2.07 0.02 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1906.82 7 2.28 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.10 8 2.56 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.16 8 2.62 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.22 8 2.68 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.23 8 2.68 0.01
~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.25 8 2.71 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1907.27 5 2.73 0.01 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1907.29 5 2.74 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.32 9 2.78 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1907.32 10 2.78 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1907.37 5 2.83 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1907.39 5 2.84 0.01 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1907.39 5 2.84 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1907.39 5 2.85 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1907.39 7 2.85 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1907.87 7 3.33 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1907.92 6 3.38 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1907.95 10 3.41 0.01 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.95 7 3.41 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.97 9 3.43 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.97 9 3.43 0.01 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1907.98 7 3.44 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.01 10 3.47 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.03 9 3.49 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.03 7 3.49 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.04 10 3.50 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.05 10 3.51 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.06 9 3.52 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.08 7 3.54 0.01 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.08 9 3.54 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1908.12 7 3.58 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.19 7 3.64 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1908.19 7 3.65 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.21 7 3.67 0.01
~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.28 8 3.74 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.31 7 3.76 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1908.31 7 3.77 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.33 7 3.79 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.34 7 3.80 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.36 7 3.82 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ColdH015s:LogRodFors 1908.38 7 3.84 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1908.39 7 3.85 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.41 7 3.87 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1908.42 7 3.87 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.42 8 3.88 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.43 7 3.89 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors 1908.43 7 3.89 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1908.44 7 3.90 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.52 7 3.98 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1908.53 7 3.99 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.53 7 3.99 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.56 7 4.02 0.01 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1908.57 7 4.03 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + HotH015s:LogRodFors 1908.58 7 4.03 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1908.59 7 4.05 0.01 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.62 9 4.08 0.01 ~ Breedsubs + ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.67 9 4.12 0.01 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + HotH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.67 9 4.12 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.67 9 4.13 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1908.67 9 4.13 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.86 8 4.31 0.01 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.87 8 4.33 0.01 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1908.87 8 4.33 0.01
~ Breedsubs + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1908.90 6 4.36 0.01 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.00 9 4.46 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.01 9 4.47 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ColdH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.03 9 4.49 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.06 9 4.52 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ColdH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.06 11 4.52 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.12 9 4.58 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.15 8 4.61 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.15 9 4.61 0.00 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.17 9 4.63 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.18 8 4.64 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.19 7 4.65 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.21 9 4.67 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.21 10 4.67 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ColdH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.22 10 4.67 0.00 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.23 6 4.69 0.00 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.23 9 4.69 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.24 9 4.70 0.00 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.25 9 4.71 0.00 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + ColdH015s:LogRodFors 1909.27 6 4.73 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.29 11 4.75 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.29 11 4.75 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.30 6 4.76 0.00 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.31 6 4.76 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.31 6 4.76 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1909.31 6 4.77 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.31 6 4.77 0.00
~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1909.32 6 4.77 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + ChAges:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.32 8 4.78 0.00 ~ ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1909.33 6 4.78 0.00 ~ ColdH015s + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) 1909.33 6 4.79 0.00 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + HotH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.33 10 4.79 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.36 10 4.81 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.38 10 4.84 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + HotH015s:LogRodFors 1909.38 6 4.84 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + (1 | Year) + HotH015s:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.39 8 4.84 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.39 11 4.84 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.39 10 4.85 0.00 ~ ChAges + ColdH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.40 11 4.85 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.40 6 4.85 0.00 ~ ChAges + HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.40 8 4.86 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) 1909.40 6 4.86 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + LRfH015s + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1909.41 6 4.87 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) 1909.42 6 4.88 0.00 ~ LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1909.42 6 4.88 0.00 ~ HotH015s + LDjuls + LogRodFors + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors 1909.43 6 4.88 0.00 ~ ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LDjuls:LogRodFors + LogRodFors:TpJJs 1909.43 8 4.89 0.00 ~ Breedsubs + ChAges + LDjuls + LogRodFors + RfJJs + TpJJs + (1 | Year) + LogRodFors:RfJJs 1909.54 10 5.00 0.00