econ 337901 financial economics - irelandp.comirelandp.com/econ3379/notes/ch01slides.pdfecon 337901...
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ECON 337901
FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
Peter Ireland
Boston College
Spring 2018
These lecture notes by Peter Ireland are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical-ShareAlike4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) License. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/.
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1 Mathematical and Economic Foundations
A Mathematical Preliminaries
1 Unconstrained Optimization2 Constrained Optimization
B Consumer Optimization
1 Graphical Analysis2 Algebraic Analysis3 The Time Dimension4 The Risk Dimension
C General Equilibrium
1 Optimal Allocations2 Equilibrium Allocations
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Mathematical Preliminaries
Unconstrained Optimization
maxx
F (x)
Constrained Optimization
maxx
F (x) subject to c ≥ G (x)
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Unconstrained Optimization
To find the value of x that solves
maxx
F (x)
you can:
1. Try out every possible value of x .
2. Use calculus.
Since search could take forever, let’s use calculus instead.
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Unconstrained Optimization
Theorem If x∗ solves
maxx
F (x),
then x∗ is a critical point of F , that is,
F ′(x∗) = 0.
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Unconstrained Optimization
F (x) maximized at x∗ = 5
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) > 0 when x < 5. F (x) can be increased by increasing x .
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) < 0 when x > 5. F (x) can be increased by decreasing x .
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) = 0 when x = 5. F (x) is maximized.
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Unconstrained Optimization
Theorem If x∗ solves
maxx
F (x),
then x∗ is a critical point of F , that is,
F ′(x∗) = 0.
Note that the same first-order necessary condition F ′(x∗) = 0also characterizes a value of x∗ that minimizes F (x).
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) = 0 when x = 5. F (x) is minimized.
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) = 0 and F ′′(x) < 0 when x = 5. F (x) is maximized.
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x) = 0 and F ′′(x) > 0 when x = 5. F (x) is minimized.
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Unconstrained Optimization
Theorem If x∗ solves
maxx
F (x),
then x∗ is a critical point of F , that is,
F ′(x∗) = 0.
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Unconstrained Optimization
Theorem If
F ′(x∗) = 0 and F ′′(x∗) < 0,
then x∗ solves
maxx
F (x)
(at least locally).
The first-order condition F ′(x∗) = 0 and the second-ordercondition F ′′(x∗) < 0 are sufficient conditions for the value ofx that (locally) maximizes F (x).
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x∗∗) = 0 and F ′′(x∗∗) < 0 at the local maximizer x∗∗ andF ′(x∗) = 0 and F ′′(x∗) < 0 at the global maximizer x∗.
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′(x∗∗) = 0 and F ′′(x∗∗) < 0 at the local maximizer x∗∗ andF ′(x∗) = 0 and F ′′(x∗) < 0 at the global maximizer x∗, butF ′′(x) > 0 in between x∗ and x∗∗.
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Unconstrained Optimization
Theorem If
F ′(x∗) = 0
and
F ′′(x) < 0 for all x ∈ R,
then x∗ solves
maxx
F (x).
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Unconstrained Optimization
F ′′(x) < 0 for all x ∈ R and F ′(5) = 0. F (x) is maximizedwhen x = 5.
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Unconstrained Optimization
If F ′′(x) < 0 for all x ∈ R, then the function F is concave.
When F is concave, the first-order condition F ′(x∗) = 0 isboth necessary and sufficient for the value of x that maximizesF (x).
And, as we are about to see, concave functions arise frequentlyand naturally in economics and finance.
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Unconstrained Optimization: Example 1
Consider the problem
maxx
(−1
2
)(x − τ)2,
where τ is a number (τ ∈ R) that we might call the “target.”
The first-order condition
−(x∗ − τ) = 0
leads us immediately to the solution: x∗ = τ .
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Unconstrained Optimization: Example 2
Consider maximizing a function of three variables:
maxx1,x2,x3
F (x1, x2, x3)
Even if each variable can take on only 1,000 values, there areone billion possible combinations of (x1, x2, x3) to search over!
This is an example of what Richard Bellman (US, 1920-1984)called the “curse of dimensionality.”
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Unconstrained Optimization: Example 2
Consider the problem:
maxx1,x2,x3
(−1
2
)(x1− τ)2 +
(−1
2
)(x2− x1)2 +
(−1
2
)(x3− x2)2.
Now the three first-order conditions
−(x∗1 − τ) + (x∗2 − x∗1 ) = 0
−(x∗2 − x∗1 ) + (x∗3 − x∗2 ) = 0
−(x∗3 − x∗2 ) = 0
lead us to the solution: x∗1 = x∗2 = x∗3 = τ .
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Constrained Optimization
To find the value of x that solves
maxx
F (x) subject to c ≥ G (x)
you can:
1. Try out every possible value of x .
2. Use calculus.
Since search could take forever, let’s use calculus instead.
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Constrained Optimization
A method for solving constrained optimization problems like
maxx
F (x) subject to c ≥ G (x)
was developed by Joseph-Louis Lagrange (France/Italy,1736-1813) and extended by Harold Kuhn (US, b.1925) andAlbert Tucker (US, 1905-1995).
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Constrained Optimization
Associated with the problem:
maxx
F (x) subject to c ≥ G (x)
Define the Lagrangian
L(x , λ) = F (x) + λ[c − G (x)],
where λ is the Lagrange multiplier.
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Constrained Optimization
L(x , λ) = F (x) + λ[c − G (x)],
Theorem (Kuhn-Tucker) If x∗ maximizes F (x) subject toc ≥ G (x), then there exists a value λ∗ ≥ 0 such that,together, x∗ and λ∗ satisfy the first-order condition
F ′(x∗)− λ∗G ′(x∗) = 0
and the complementary slackness condition
λ∗[c − G (x∗)] = 0.
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Constrained Optimization
In the case where c > G (x∗), the constraint is non-binding.The complementary slackness condition
λ∗[c − G (x∗)] = 0
requires that λ∗ = 0.
And the first-order condition
F ′(x∗)− λ∗G ′(x∗) = 0
requires that F ′(x∗) = 0.
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Constrained Optimization
In the case where c = G (x∗), the constraint is binding. Thecomplementary slackness condition
λ∗[c − G (x∗)] = 0
puts no further restriction on λ∗ ≥ 0.
Now the first-order condition
F ′(x∗)− λ∗G ′(x∗) = 0
requires that F ′(x∗) = λ∗G ′(x∗).
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Constrained Optimization: Example 1
For the problem
maxx
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 subject to 7 ≥ x ,
F (x) = (−1/2)(x − 5)2, c = 7, and G (x) = x . TheLagrangian is
L(x , λ) =
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 + λ(7− x).
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Constrained Optimization: Example 1
With
L(x , λ) =
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 + λ(7− x),
the first-order condition
−(x∗ − 5)− λ∗ = 0
and the complementary slackness condition
λ∗(7− x∗) = 0
are satisfied with x∗ = 5, F ′(x∗) = 0, λ∗ = 0, and 7 > x∗.
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Constrained Optimization: Example 1
Here, the solution has F ′(x∗) = 0 since the constraint isnonbinding.
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Constrained Optimization: Example 2
For the problem
maxx
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 subject to 4 ≥ x ,
F (x) = (−1/2)(x − 5)2, c = 4, and G (x) = x . TheLagrangian is
L(x , λ) =
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 + λ(4− x).
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Constrained Optimization: Example 2
With
L(x , λ) =
(−1
2
)(x − 5)2 + λ(4− x),
the first-order condition
−(x∗ − 5)− λ∗ = 0
and the complementary slackness condition
λ∗(4− x∗) = 0
are satisfied with x∗ = 4 and F ′(x∗) = λ∗ = 1 > 0.
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Constrained Optimization: Example 2
Here, the solution has F ′(x∗) = λ∗G ′(x∗) > 0 since theconstraint is binding. F ′(x∗) > 0 indicates that we’d like toincrease the value of x , but the constraint won’t let us.
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Constrained Optimization: Example 2
With a binding constraint, F ′(x∗) 6= 0 butF ′(x∗)− λ∗G ′(x∗) = 0. The value x∗ that solves the problemis a critical point, not of the objective function F (x), butinstead of the entire Lagrangian F (x) + λ[c − G (x)].
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Consumer Optimization
1. Graphical Analysis
2. Algebraic Analysis
3. Time Dimension
4. Risk Dimension
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Consumer Optimization
Alfred Marshall, Principles of Economics, 1890. – supply anddemand
Francis Edgeworth, Mathematical Psychics, 1881.
Vilfredo Pareto, Manual of Political Economy, 1906. –indifference curves
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Consumer Optimization
John Hicks, Value and Capital, 1939. – wealth andsubstitution effects
Paul Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis, 1947. –mathematical reformulation
Irving Fisher, The Theory of Interest, 1930. – intertemporalextension.
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Consumer Optimization
Gerard Debreu, Theory of Value, 1959.
Kenneth Arrow, “The Role of Securities in the OptimalAllocation of Risk Bearing,” Review of Economic Studies,1964.
Extensions to include risk and uncertainty.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Consider a consumer who likes two goods: apples and bananas.
Y = income
ca = consumption of apples
cb = consumption of bananas
pa = price of an apple
pb = price of a banana
The consumer’s budget constraint is
Y ≥ paca + pbcb
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
So long as the consumer always prefers more to less, thebudget constraint will always bind:
Y = paca + pbcb
or
cb =Y
pb−
(papb
)ca
Which shows that the graph of the budget constraint will be astraight line with slope −(pa/pb) and intercept Y /pb.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
The budget constraint is a straight line with slope −(pa/pb)and intercept Y /pb.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
The budget constraint describes the consumer’s marketopportunities.
Francis Edgeworth (Ireland, 1845-1926) and Vilfredo Pareto(Italy, 1848-1923) were the first to use indifference curves todescribe the consumer’s preferences.
Each indifference curve traces out a set of combinations ofapples and bananas that give the consumer a given level ofutility or satisfaction.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Each indifference curve traces out a set of combinations ofapples and bananas that give the consumer a given level ofutility.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Each indifference curve slopes down, since the consumerrequires more apples to compensate for a loss of bananas andmore bananas to compensate for a loss of apples, if more ispreferred to less.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Indifference curves farther away from the origin representhigher levels of utility, if more is preferred to less.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
A and B yield the same level of utility, and B and C yield thesame level of utility, but C is preferred to A if more is preferredto less. Indifference curves cannot intersect.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Indifference curves are convex to the origin if consumers havea preference for diversity.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
A is suboptimal and C is infeasible. B is optimal.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
At B, the optimal choice, the indifference curve is tangent tothe budget constraint.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Recall that the budget constraint
Y = paca + pbcb
or
cb =Y
pb−
(papb
)ca
has slope −(pa/pb).
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Suppose that the consumer’s preferences are also described bythe utility function
u(ca) + βu(cb).
The function u is increasing, with u′(c) > 0, so that more ispreferred to less, and concave, with u′′(c) < 0, so thatmarginal utility falls as consumption rises.
The parameter β measures how much more (if β > 1) or less(if β < 1) the consumer likes bananas compared to apples.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Since an indifference curve traces out the set of (ca, cb)combinations that yield a given level of utility U , the equationfor an indifference curve is
U = u(ca) + βu(cb).
Use this equation to define a new function, cb(ca), describingthe number of bananas needed, for each number of apples, tokeep the consumer on this indifference curve:
U = u(ca) + βu[cb(ca)].
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
The function cb(ca) satisfies U = u(ca) + βu[cb(ca)].
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Differentiate both sides of
U = u(ca) + βu[cb(ca)]
to obtain
0 = u′(ca) + βu′[cb(ca)]c ′b(ca)
or
c ′b(ca) = − u′(ca)
βu′[cb(ca)].
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
This last equation,
c ′b(ca) = − u′(ca)
βu′[cb(ca)],
written more simply as
c ′b(ca) = − u′(ca)
βu′(cb),
measures the slope of the indifference curve: the consumer’smarginal rate of substitution.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Thus, the tangency of the budget constraint and indifferencecurve can be expressed mathematically as
papb
=u′(ca)
βu′(cb).
The marginal rate of substitution equals the relative prices.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
Returning to the more general expression
c ′b(ca) = − u′(ca)
βu′[cb(ca)],
we can see that c ′b(ca) < 0, so that the indifference curve isdownward-sloping, so long as the utility function u is strictlyincreasing, that is, if more is preferred to less.
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Consumer Optimization: Graphical Analysis
c ′b(ca) = − u′(ca)
βu′[cb(ca)]
Differentiating again yields
c ′′b (ca) = −βu′[cb(ca)]u′′(ca)− u′(ca)βu′′[cb(ca)]c ′b(ca)
{βu′[cb(ca)]}2,
which is positive if u is strictly increasing (more is preferred toless) and concave (diminishing marginal utility). In this case,the indifference curve will be convex. Again, we see howconcave functions have mathematical properties and economicimplications that we like.
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Consumer Optimization: Algebraic Analysis
Graphical analysis works fine with two goods.
But what about three goods? That depends on how good anartist you are!
And what about four or more goods? Our universe won’taccommodate a graph like that!
But once again, calculus makes it easier!
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Consumer Optimization: Algebraic Analysis
Consider a consumer who likes three goods:
Y = income
ci = consumption of goods i = 0, 1, 2
pi = price of goods i = 0, 1, 2
Suppose the consumer’s utility function is
u(c0) + αu(c1) + βu(c2),
where α and β are weights on goods 1 and 2 relative to good0.
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Consumer Optimization: Algebraic Analysis
The consumer chooses c0, c1, and c2 to maximize the utilityfunction
u(c0) + αu(c1) + βu(c2),
subject to the budget constraint
Y ≥ p0c0 + p1c1 + p2c2.
The Lagrangian for this problem is
L = u(c0) + αu(c1) + βu(c2) + λ(Y − p0c0 − p1c1 − p2c2).
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Consumer Optimization: Algebraic Analysis
L = u(c0) + αu(c1) + βu(c2) + λ(Y − p0c0 − p1c1 − p2c2).
First-order conditions:
u′(c∗0 )− λ∗p0 = 0
αu′(c∗1 )− λ∗p1 = 0
βu′(c∗2 )− λ∗p2 = 0
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Consumer Optimization: Algebraic Analysis
The first-order conditions
u′(c∗0 )− λ∗p0 = 0
αu′(c∗1 )− λ∗p1 = 0
βu′(c∗2 )− λ∗p2 = 0
imply
u′(c∗0 )
αu′(c∗1 )=
p0p1
andu′(c∗0 )
βu′(c∗2 )=
p0p2
andαu′(c∗1 )
βu′(c∗2 )=
p1p2.
The marginal rate of substitution equals the relative prices.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Irving Fisher (US, 1867-1947) was the first to recognize thatthe basic theory of consumer decision-making could be used tounderstand how to optimally allocate spendingintertemporally, that is, over time, as well as how to optimallyallocate spending across different goods in a static, orpoint-in-time, analysis.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Following Fisher, return to the case of two goods, butreinterpret:
c0 = consumption today
c1 = consumption next year
Suppose that the consumer’s utility function is
u(c0) + βu(c1),
where β now has a more specific interpretation, as thediscount factor, a measure of patience.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
A concave utility function implies that indifference curves areconvex, so that the consumer has a preference for asmoothness in consumption.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Next, let
Y0 = income today
Y1 = income next year
s = amount saved (or borrowed if negative) today
r = interest rate
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Today, the consumer divides his or her income up into anamount to be consumed and an amount to be saved:
Y0 ≥ c0 + s.
Next year, the consumer simply spends his or her income,including interest earnings if s is positive or net of interestexpenses if s is negative:
Y1 + (1 + r)s ≥ c1.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Divide both sides of next year’s budget constraint by 1 + r toget
Y1
1 + r+ s ≥ c1
1 + r.
Now combine this inequality with this year’s budget constraint
Y0 ≥ c0 + s.
to get
Y0 +Y1
1 + r≥ c0 +
c11 + r
.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
The “lifetime” budget constraint
Y0 +Y1
1 + r≥ c0 +
c11 + r
says that the present value of income must be sufficient tocover the present value of consumption over the two periods.It also shows that the “price” of consumption today relative tothe “price” of consumption next year is related to the interestrate via
p0p1
= 1 + r .
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
The slope of the intertemporal budget constraint is −(1 + r).
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
At the optimum, the intertemporal marginal rate ofsubstitution equals the slope of the intertemporal budgetconstraint.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
We now know the answer ahead of time: if we take analgebraic approach to solve the consumer’s problem, we willfind that the IMRS equals the slope of the intertemporalbudget constraint:
u′(c0)
βu′(c1)= 1 + r .
But let’s use calculus to derive the same result.
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
The problem is to choose c0 and c1 to maximize utility
u(c0) + βu(c1)
subject to the budget constraint
Y0 +Y1
1 + r≥ c0 +
c11 + r
.
The Lagrangian is
L = u(c0) + βu(c1) + λ
(Y0 +
Y1
1 + r− c0 −
c11 + r
).
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
L = u(c0) + βu(c1) + λ
(Y0 +
Y1
1 + r− c0 −
c11 + r
).
The first-order conditions
u′(c∗0 )− λ∗ = 0
βu′(c∗1 )− λ∗(
1
1 + r
)= 0.
lead directly to the graphical result
u′(c∗0 )
βu′(c∗1 )= 1 + r .
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
At first glance, Fisher’s model seems unrealistic, especially inits assumption that the consumer can borrow at the sameinterest rate r that he or she receives on his or her savings.
A reinterpretation of saving and borrowing in this framework,however, can make it more applicable, at least for someconsumers.
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Investment Strategies and Cash Flows
Cash Flow Cash FlowInvestment Strategy at t = 0 at t = 1
Saving −1 +(1+r)
Buying a bond −1 +(1+r)(long position in bonds)
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Investment Strategies and Cash Flows
Cash Flow Cash FlowInvestment Strategy at t = 0 at t = 1
Borrowing +1 −(1 + r)
Issuing a bond +1 −(1 + r)
Short selling a bond +1 −(1 + r)(short position in bonds)
Selling a bond +1 −(1 + r)(out of inventory)
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Investment Strategies and Cash Flows
Cash Flow Cash FlowInvestment Strategy at t = 0 at t = 1
Buying a stock −P s0 +P s
1
(long position in stocks)
Short selling a stock +P s0 −P s
1
(short position in stocks)
Selling a stock +P s0 −P s
1
(out of inventory)
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Consumer Optimization: The Time Dimension
Someone who already owns bonds can “borrow” by selling abond out of inventory. In fact, theories like Fisher’s work betterwhen applied to consumers who already own stocks and bonds.
Greg Mankiw and Stephen Zeldes, “The Consumption ofStockholders and Nonstockholders,” Journal of Finance, 1991.
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, “Limited Asset MarketParticipation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution,”Journal of Political Economy, 2002.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
In the 1950s and 1960s, Kenneth Arrow (US, 1921-2017,Nobel Prize 1972) and Gerard Debreu (France, 1921-2004,Nobel Prize 1983) extended consumer theory to accommodaterisk and uncertainty.
To do so, they drew on earlier ideas developed by others, butadded important insights of their own.
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Building Blocks of Arrow-Debreu Theory
1. Fisher’s (1930) intertemporal model of consumerdecision-making.
2. From probability theory: uncertainty described withreference to “states of the world.” (Andrey Kolmogorov,1930s).
3. Expected utility theory (John von Neumann and OskarMorgenstern, 1947).
4. Contingent claims – stylized financial assets – a powerfulanalytic device of their own invention.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
To be more specific about the source of risk, let’s supposethat there are two possible outcomes for income next year,good and bad:
Y0 = income today
Y G1 = income next year in the “good” state
Y B1 = income next year in the “bad” state
where the assumption Y G1 > Y B
1 makes the “good” stategood and where
π = probability of the good state
1− π = probability of the bad state
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
An event tree highlights randomness in income as the sourceof risk.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Arrow and Debreu used the probabilistic idea of states of theworld to extend Irving Fisher’s work, recognizing that underthese circumstances, the consumer chooses between threegoods:
c0 = consumption today
cG1 = consumption next year in the good state
cB1 = consumption next year in the bad state
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Under uncertainty, the consumer chooses consumption todayand consumption in both states next year.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Suppose that the consumer’s utility function is
u(c0) + βπu(cG1 ) + β(1− π)u(cB1 ),
so that the terms involving next year’s consumption areweighted by the probability that each state will occur as wellas by the discount factor β.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
In probability theory, if a random variable X can take on npossible values, X1,X2, . . . ,Xn, with probabilitiesπ1, π2, . . . , πn, then the expected value of X is
E (X ) = π1X1 + π2X2 + . . . + πnXn.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Hence, by assuming that the consumer’s utility function is
u(c0) + βπu(cG1 ) + β(1− π)u(cB1 ),
we are assuming that the consumer’s seeks to maximizeexpected utility
u(c0) + βE [u(c1)].
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
But by writing out all three terms,
u(c0) + βπu(cG1 ) + β(1− π)u(cB1 ),
we can see that concavity of the function u, which in thestandard microeconomic case represents a preference fordiversity, represents here a preference for smoothness inconsumption over time and across states in the future – theconsumer is risk averse in the sense that he or she does notwant consumption in the bad state to be too much differentfrom consumption in the good state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Suppose next that today, the consumer can buy and sellcontingent claims for both future states.
A contingent claim for the good state costs qG today, anddelivers one unit of consumption next year in the good stateand zero units of consumption next year in the bad state.
A contingent claim for the bad state costs qB today, anddelivers one unit of consumption next year in the bad stateand zero units of consumption next year in the good state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Payoffs for the contingent claim for the good state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Payoffs for the contingent claim for the bad state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Today, the consumer divides his or her income up into anamount to be consumed and amounts used to purchase thetwo contingent claims:
Y0 ≥ c0 + qG sG + qBsB ,
where sG and sB denote the number of each contingent claimpurchased or sold.
If either sG or sB is negative, the consumer can increase c0today, but is promising to deliver goods to someone else nextyear – a sophisticated kind of borrowing.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Next year, the consumer simply spends his or her income,including payoffs on contingent claims:
Y G1 + sG ≥ cG1
in the good state and
Y B1 + sB ≥ cB1
in the bad state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Y0 ≥ c0 + qG sG + qBsB
Y G1 + sG ≥ cG1
Y B1 + sB ≥ cB1
Multiply both sides of the second equation by qG and bothsides of the third equation by qB , Then add them all up to getthe lifetime budget constraint
Y0 + qGY G1 + qBY B
1 ≥ c0 + qGcG1 + qBcB1 .
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
The problem is to choose c0, cG1 , and cB1 to maximizeexpected utility
u(c0) + βπu(cG1 ) + β(1− π)u(cB1 ),
subject to the budget constraint
Y0 + qGY G1 + qBY B
1 ≥ c0 + qGcG1 + qBcB1 .
This was Arrow and Debreu’s key insight: that finance is likegrocery shopping. Mathematically, making decisions over timeand under uncertainty is no different from choosing apples,bananas, and pears!
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
The Lagrangian is
L = u(c0) + βπu(cG1 ) + β(1− π)u(cB1 )
+λ(Y0 + qGY G
1 + qBY B1 − c0 − qGcG1 − qBcB1
),
and the first-order conditions are
u′(c∗0 )− λ∗ = 0
βπu′(cG∗1 )− λ∗qG = 0
β(1− π)u′(cB∗1 )− λ∗qB = 0
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
The first-order conditions
u′(c∗0 )− λ∗ = 0
βπu′(cG∗1 )− λ∗qG = 0
β(1− π)u′(cB∗1 )− λ∗qB = 0
imply that marginal rates of substitution equal relative prices:
u′(c∗0 )
βπu′(cG∗1 )=
1
qGand
u′(c∗0 )
β(1− π)u′(cB∗1 )=
1
qB
andπu′(cG∗1 )
(1− π)u′(cB∗1 )=
qG
qB.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Do we really observe consumers trading in contingent claims?
Yes, if we think of financial assets as “bundles” of contingentclaims.
This insight is also Arrow and Debreu’s.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
A “stock” is a risky asset that pays dividend dG next year inthe good state and dB next year in the bad state.
These payoffs can be replicated by buying dG contingentclaims for the good state and dB contingent claims for the badstate.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Payoffs for the stock.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
A “bond” is a safe asset that pays off one next year in thegood state and one next year in the bad state.
These payoffs can be replicated by buying one contingent claimfor the good state and one contingent claim for the bad state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Payoffs for the bond.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
If we start with knowledge of the contingent claims prices qG
and qB , then we can infer that the stock must sell today for
qstock = qGdG + qBdB .
Since if the stock cost more than the equivalent bundle ofcontingent claims, traders could make profits for sure by shortselling the stock and buying the contingent claims; and if thestock cost less than the equivalent bundle of contingentclaims, traders could make profits for sure by buying the stockand selling the contingent claims.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
“Pricing” the stock.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk DimensionLikewise, if we start with knowledge of the contingent claimsprices qG and qB , then we can infer that the bond must selltoday for
qbond = qG + qB .
Since the bond pays off one for sure next year, the interestrate, defined as the return on the risk-free bond, is
1 + r =1
qbond=
1
qG + qB.
The bond price relates to the interest rate via
qbond =1
1 + r.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Pricing the bond.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
We’ve already seen how contingent claims can be used toreplicate the stock and the bond.
Now let’s see how the stock and the bond can be used toreplicate the contingent claims.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Consider buying s shares of stock and b bonds, in order toreplicate the contingent claim for the good state.
In the good state, the payoffs should be
sdG + b = 1
and in the bad state, the payoffs should be
sdB + b = 0
since the contingent claim pays off one in the good state andzero in the bad state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
To replicate the contingent claim for the good state:
sdG + b = 1
sdB + b = 0⇒ b = −sdB
Substitute the second equation into the first to solve for
s =1
dG − dBand b =
−dB
dG − dB
Since s and b are of opposite sign, this requires going “long”one asset and “short” the other.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
To replicate the contingent claim for the good state:
s =1
dG − dBand b =
−dB
dG − dB
If we know the prices qstock and qbond of the stock and bond,we can infer that in the absence of arbitrage, the claim for thegood state would have price
qG = qstocks + qbondb =qstock − dBqbond
dG − dB.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
Consider buying s shares of stock and b bonds, in order toreplicate the contingent claim for the bad state.
In the good state, the payoffs should be
sdG + b = 0
and in the bad state, the payoffs should be
sdB + b = 1
since the contingent claim pays off one in the bad state andzero in the good state.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
To replicate the contingent claim for the bad state:
sdG + b = 0⇒ b = −sdG
sdB + b = 1
Substitute the first equation into the second to solve for
s =−1
dG − dBand b =
dG
dG − dB
Once again, this requires going long one asset and short theother.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
To replicate the contingent claim for the bad state:
s =−1
dG − dBand b =
dG
dG − dB
Once again, if we know the prices qstock and qbond of the stockand bond, we can infer that in the absence of arbitrage, theclaim for the bad state would have price
qB = qstocks + qbondb =dGqbond − qstock
dG − dB.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
What makes it possible to go back and forth between tradedassets, like stocks and bonds, and contingent claims is thatthere are the same number of traded assets as there arepossible states of the world next year.
More generally, asset markets are complete if there are asmany assets (with linearly independent payoffs) as there arestates next year.
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Consumer Optimization: The Risk Dimension
If asset markets are complete, then we can use the prices oftraded assets to infer the prices of contingent claims.
Then we can use the contingent claims prices to infer the priceof any newly-introduced asset.
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General Equilibrium
An allocation of resources is Pareto optimal if it is impossibleto reallocate those resources without making at least oneconsumer worse off.
A competitive equilibrium is an allocation of resources and aset of prices such that, at those prices: (i) each consumer ismaximizing utility subject to his or her budget constraint and(ii) the supply of each good equal the demand for each good.
The two welfare theorems of economics link optimal andequilibrium allocations.
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Optimal Allocations
In an economy with two consumers, 1 and 2, and two goods, aand b, the key properties of Pareto optimal allocations can beillustrated using an Edgeworth box.
c1a = 1’s consumption of good a
c1b = 1’s consumption of good b
c2a = 2’s consumption of good a
c2b = 2’s consumption of good b
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Optimal Allocations
The Edgeworth box contains the entire set of feasibleallocations.
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Optimal Allocations
Both consumers prefer allocations in the green region to A.
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Optimal Allocations
Both consumers prefer B to A, but still there are allocationsthat are even more strongly preferred.
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Optimal Allocations
At C, there is no way to make one consumer better off withoutmaking the other worse off. C is Pareto optimal.
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Optimal Allocations
There are many Pareto optimal allocations, but each ischaracterized by the tangency of the two consumers’indifference curves.
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Optimal Allocations
Note that Pareto optimality is a welfare criterion that accountsfor efficiency but not equity: an allocation may be Paretooptimal even though it provides most of the goods to oneconsumer.
But since the slope of the indifference curves is measured bythe marginal rate of substitution, the mathematical conditionassociated with all Pareto optimal allocations is
MRS1a,b = MRS2
a,b. (PO)
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Optimal Allocations
Suppose that consumer 1 has utility function
u(c1a ) + αu(c1b)
and consumer 2 has utility function
v(c2a ) + βv(c2b).
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Optimal Allocations
Consider a benevolent “social planner,” who divides Ya unitsof good a and Yb units of good b up between the twoconsumers, subject to the resource constraints
Ya ≥ c1a + c2a
andYb ≥ c1b + c2b ,
so as to maximize a weighted average of their utilities:
θ[u(c1a ) + αu(c1b)] + (1− θ)[v(c2a ) + βv(c2b)],
where 1 > θ > 0.
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Optimal Allocations
Since there are two constraints, the Lagrangian for the socialplanner’s problem requires two Lagrange multipliers:
L = θ[u(c1a ) + αu(c1b)] + (1− θ)[v(c2a ) + βv(c2b)]
+λa(Ya − c1a − c2a ) + λb(Yb − c1b − c2b).
The first-order conditions are:
θu′(c1a )− λa = 0
θαu′(c1b)− λb = 0
(1− θ)v ′(c2a )− λa = 0
(1− θ)βv ′(c2b)− λb = 0.
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Optimal Allocations
The first-order conditions
θu′(c1a )− λa = 0
θαu′(c1b)− λb = 0
(1− θ)v ′(c2a )− λa = 0
(1− θ)βv ′(c2b)− λb = 0.
imply thatu′(c1a )
αu′(c1b)=λaλb
=v ′(c2a )
βv ′(c2b),
a restatement of (PO) that must hold for any value of θ.
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Equilibrium Allocations
Now let’s see what happens when markets, instead of a socialplanner, allocate resources:
Y 1a = consumer 1’s endowment of good a
Y 1b = consumer 1’s endowment of good b
Y 2a = consumer 2’s endowment of good a
Y 2b = consumer 2’s endowment of good b
pa = price of good a
pb = price of good b
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Equilibrium Allocations
Consumer 1 chooses c1a and c1b to maximize utility
u(c1a ) + αu(c1b)
subject to the budget constraint
paY1a + pbY
1b ≥ pac
1a + pbc
1b ,
taking the prices pa and pb as given.
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Equilibrium Allocations
The Lagrangian for consumer 1’s problem is
L = u(c1a ) + αu(c1b) + λ1(paY1a + pbY
1b − pac
1a − pbc
1b).
The first-order conditions
u′(c1a )− λ1pa = 0
αu′(c1b)− λ1pb = 0
imply thatu′(c1a )
αu′(c1b)=
papb. (CE-1)
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Equilibrium Allocations
Similarly, consumer 2 chooses c2a and c2b to maximize utility
v(c2a ) + βv(c2b)
subject to the budget constraint
paY2a + pbY
2b ≥ pac
2a + pbc
2b ,
taking the prices pa and pb as given.
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Equilibrium Allocations
The Lagrangian for consumer 2’s problem is
L = v(c2a ) + βv(c2b) + λ2(paY2a + pbY
2b − pac
2a − pbc
2b).
The first-order conditions
v ′(c2a )− λ2pa = 0
βv ′(c2b)− λ2pb = 0
imply thatv ′(c2a )
βv ′(c2b)=
papb. (CE-2)
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Equilibrium Allocations
Hence, in any competitive equilibrium
u′(c1a )
αu′(c1b)=
papb. (CE-1)
andv ′(c2a )
βv ′(c2b)=
papb
(CE-2)
must hold, so that
u′(c1a )
αu′(c1b)=
papb
=v ′(c2a )
βv ′(c2b).
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Equilibrium Allocations
There will be different equilibrium allocations associated withdifferent patterns for the endowments Y 1
a , Y 1b , Y 2
a , and Y 2b .
In addition, different equilibrium allocations may requiredifferent prices pa and pb to equate the supply and demand ofeach good.
But all equilibrium allocations must satisfy
MRS1a,b =
papb
= MRS2a,b. (CE)
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Equilibrium Allocations
The Pareto optimal allocation C is supported in a competitiveequilibrium with prices pa and pb, and the equilibriumallocation C is Pareto optimal.
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General Equilibrium
The coincidence between (PO) and (CE) underlies results thatextend Adam Smith’s (Scotland, 1723-1790) notion of an“invisible hand” that guides self-interested individuals tochoose resource allocations that are Pareto optimal.
First Welfare Theorem of Economics The resource allocationfrom a competitive equilibrium is Pareto optimal.
Second Welfare Theorem of Economics A Pareto optimalresource allocation can be supported in a competitiveequilibrium.