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FAO Fisheries and

Aquaculture Circular

FIAM/C1101 (En)

ISSN 2070-6065

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA UP TO 2022 – SPECIAL FOCUS ON FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1101 FIAM/C1101 (En)

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA UP TO 2022 – SPECIAL FOCUS ON FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS Trond Bjørndal Professor Aalesund University College Aalesund, Norway SNF Centre for Applied Research at NHH Bergen, Norway Alena Lappo International consultant Products, Trade and Marketing Branch Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy Madan Dey Professor Aquaculture and Fisheries Center University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff Pine Bluff, United States of America Audun Lem Deputy Director Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy and Anna Child International Consultant Products, Trade and Marketing Branch Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2016

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PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT

This report contributes to FAO’s ongoing activities and forecasts of food demand and supply. There is much concern about future food supply and demand in sub-Saharan Africa as population growth is expected to outpace increased production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture, making the region less self-sufficient in terms of food production, also compared with other regions of the world. At the same time, there are limits to the potential for expanded production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. A number of studies have analysed future food security in the region. However, the subject is usually approached from a production and demographic perspective. This study builds on FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1089, in which new scenarios were developed to examine the future development of demand for and supply of food from more of an economic perspective.

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FAO. 2016. Economic analysis of food supply and demand in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2022 – special focus on fish and fishery products, by Trond Bjørndal, Alena Lappo, Madan Dey, Audun Lem and Anna Child. Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1101. Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT

This circular analyses and forecasts future demand for and supply of food in sub-Saharan Africa, with a special focus on fish and fishery products. Eleven countries in the region were selected for in-depth analysis: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.

With the population of sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 949 million in 2015 to reach 1.2 billion by 2025, food production systems will be placed under growing pressure in an already difficult setting of rising urbanization and environmental degradation. Various population dynamics in the region will have a number of nuanced effects on the future demand for food. With the rate of population growth in 2022 expected to be outpace increased production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture, it is forecast that the region will be less self-sufficient in terms of food production than compared with the current situation, as well as compared with other regions of the world. Despite these findings, the overall increase in per capita income will also affect food demand and potentially improve nutrition for some.

Substantial increases in fish consumption up to 2022 are not anticipated during the period in question owing to the projection that population growth will outpace the supply, which is already burdened by slow growth in aquaculture production. Projected fish price increases by 2022 will also adversely influence the growth in fish consumption and have substitution effects.

Although the growth rates of various food subsectors have improved in recent years, they are not fast enough to improve the food security situation in many sub-Saharan African countries. Therefore, a focus on higher and sustained growth in agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries is critical to contributing to economic development and food security in the region. In addition, greater emphasis must be put on trade, as with regional self-sufficiency in decline, per capita consumption can be maintained and increased through greater trade.

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CONTENTS

Preparation of this document iii

Abstract iv

List of figures vi

List of tables vii

Abbreviations and acronyms ix

1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1

2. INTRODUCTION TO THE REGION ............................................................................................ 2

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 2

2.2 Countries ................................................................................................................................. 3

2.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 11

3. FOOD DEMAND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ....................................................................... 12

3.1 Population .............................................................................................................................. 12

3.2 Undernourishment ................................................................................................................. 18

3.3 Gross domestic product ......................................................................................................... 21

3.4 Food demand ......................................................................................................................... 23

3.5 Future food demand ............................................................................................................... 26

3.6 Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 28

4. FOOD SUPPLY ............................................................................................................................ 34

4.1 Fisheries and aquaculture ...................................................................................................... 34

4.2 Agriculture............................................................................................................................. 56

5. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FOOD PRODUCTION ................................................................ 65

5.1 Fisheries and aquaculture ...................................................................................................... 65

5.2 Agriculture............................................................................................................................. 73

5.3 Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 79

5.4 Conclusion and possible policy directions ............................................................................ 81

6. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................. 84

APPENDIXES ...................................................................................................................................... 88

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LIST OF FIGURES

1. Capture production in Côte d’Ivoire, 1960–2011 35 2. Aquaculture production in Côte d’Ivoire, 1984–2011 35 3. Capture production in Ghana, 1960–2011 36 4. Aquaculture production in Ghana, 1966–2011 37 5. Capture production in Kenya, 1960–2011 38 6. Aquaculture production in Kenya, 1960–2011 39 7. Capture production in Madagascar, 1960–2011 40 8. Aquaculture production in Madagascar, 1976–2011 41 9. Capture production in Mozambique, 1960–2011 42 10. Aquaculture production in Mozambique, 1986–2011 43 11. Capture production in Namibia, 1966–2011 44 12. Aquaculture production in Namibia, 1990–2011 44 13. Capture production in Nigeria, 1960–2011 45 14. Aquaculture production in Nigeria, 1960–2011 46 15. Capture production in Senegal, 1960–2011 47 16. Capture production in South Africa, 1960–2011 48 17. Capture production in Uganda, 1960–2011 49 18. Aquaculture production in Uganda, 1984–2011 49 19. Capture production in the United Republic of Tanzania, 1960–2011 50 20. Coarse grain production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131 57 21. Wheat and rice production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131 58 22. Oilseeds, oilseed meal and vegetable oils production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–2013 58 23. Meat production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131 59 24. Production of milk and fresh dairy products in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–2013 60 25. Production of raw sugar in sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2013 61 26. Production of cotton in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–2013 61 27. Capture production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 66 28. Aquaculture production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022: (base scenario

and optimistic scenario) 67 29. Aquaculture production in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 (base = optimistic scenario) 68 30. Aquaculture production in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022

(base scenario and optimistic scenario) 68 31. World fish prices, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios with normalized prices) 71 32. Fish price in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios with

normalized prices) 71 33. Fish prices in rest of sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios

by percentage) 72 34. Wheat, coarse grains and rice production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 74 35. Production of oilseeds, oilseed meals and vegetable oils in sub-Saharan Africa,

2014–2022 75 36. Meat production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 76 37. Milk and fresh dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 76 38. Sugar production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 77 39. Cotton production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 77

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LIST OF TABLES

1. Côte d’Ivoire, economic data (2012 estimates) 3 2. Ghana, economic data (2012 estimates) 4 3. Kenya, economic data (2012 estimates) 5 4. Madagascar, economic data (2012 estimates) 5 5. Mozambique, economic data (2012 estimates) 6 6. Namibia, economic data (2012 estimates) 7 7. Nigeria, economic data (2012 estimates) 7 8. Senegal, economic data (2012 estimates) 8 9. South Africa, economic data 9 10. Uganda, economic data (2012 estimates) 9 11. United Republic of Tanzania, economic data (2012 estimates) 10 12. Projections of total population size for selected sub-Saharan African

countries, 2015–2050 (thousands) 13 13. Projections of total fertility for selected sub-Saharan African countries,

2010–2050 (children per woman) 13 14. Projections for population over the age of 65 for selected countries of

sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2050 (percentage) 14 15. Projections of life expectancy at birth for selected countries of

sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2050 (years) 15 16. Population of selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa residing in urban areas,

2010–2050 (percentage) 16 17. Net migration rate (per 1 000 population), medium variant, 2010–2050 17 18. Projections of the proportions of the population (above age 15) that have a

junior secondary or higher education for sub-Saharan Africa as well as for continents (percentage) 17

19. Hunger statistics in sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2013 19 20. GDP growth projections in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa,

2013–2018 (percentage) 21 21. GDP per capita growth projections in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa,

2013–2018 (percentage) 22 22. GDP per capita in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 and 2018 23 23. Budget shares for broad aggregates and conditional budget shares for food categories 24 24. Own price elasticities for food aggregates 25 25. Expenditure elasticities for food aggregates 25 26. Average dietary energy supply adequacy in sub-Saharan Africa, Africa,

developed regions and the world, 2003–2013 (percentage) 26 27. Share of dietary energy supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers in

sub-Saharan Africa, developed regions and the world, 2003–2010 (percentage) 27 28. Estimated changes in population and GDP in sub-Saharan Africa 29 29. Estimated changes in population and GDP in sub-Saharan Africa and their impact

on food demand 32 30. Capture and aquaculture production in the 11 selected countries of

sub-Saharan Africa, 2011 51 31. Exports and imports of fish and fish products and main trading partners for the 11 selected

countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2009 54 32. Agricultural exports and imports values and the main traded commodities

for the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2011 62 33. Major export and import partners for the 11 selected countries of

sub-Saharan Africa, 2011 64 34. Capture and aquaculture production, 2014 and 2022, for selected countries 69

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35. Annual Per capita fishery product availability from domestic sources (capture and aquaculture production), 2014 and 2022, for selected countries 69

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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

BRICS Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CIA Central Intelligence Agency (United States of America) DES dietary energy supply EAC East African Community EEZ exclusive economic zone ESP Economic Stimulus Programme (Kenya) GDP gross domestic product GNI gross national income IMF International Monetary Fund LDC least-developed country LVBC Lake Victoria Basin Commission MDG Millennium Development Goal NARS national agricultural research system NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPP purchasing power parity USDA United States Department of Agriculture WFS World Food Summit

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1. INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this report is to analyse and project future demand for and supply of food in sub-Saharan Africa. Some analyses focus on the period up to 2025, while others go up to 2022 only.

A number of studies analyse future food security in the region. However, the subject is usually approached from a production and demographic perspective. This study builds on work by Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014), in which new scenarios were developed to examine the future development of demand for and supply of food from more of an economic perspective.

This study consists of four sections. The first section provides an overall background on the sub-Saharan Africa region. The second section focuses on demand, and discusses the main drivers of future demand, particularly various dimensions of population growth up until 2025, such as age, sex, level of education, urban versus rural populations, and the impacts these determinants could have on food demand. The second section also provides an overview of the current situation of undernourishment in the region, its evolution over time, as well as the efforts taken towards eradicating hunger. In addition, the section analyses future growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita, and it investigates what information the food demand literature can provide about the relationship between changes in demand and changes in prices and income. The section concludes by summarizing all of these changes, which will result in substantial shifts not only in demand but also in the composition of demand. The third section focuses on supply and describes the evolution in the production of the fisheries and agriculture sectors over time, as well as the most recent trade figures related to these sectors. The fourth and final section brings together the previous parts of the report. Focusing on aquaculture, this section presents projections related to future food supply for two different scenarios. The potential impact of the projected future food supply on fish prices is also examined.

All monetary values in the report are nominal and in United States dollars (USD) unless otherwise noted.

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2. INTRODUCTION TO THE REGION

This section provides an economic overview of sub-Saharan Africa and the countries that make up this region. First, a general description of the region is presented, and then the economic development of a group of selected countries is examined in more detail.

2.1 Introduction

Geographically, sub-Saharan Africa is the area that lies south of the Sahara, and it is made up of 49 countries. The Sahel is considered the transitional zone between the Sahara and the tropical savannah and forest–savannah mosaic to the south. The Horn of Africa, the region containing the countries of Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Somalia, and large areas of the Sudan are geographically part of sub-Saharan Africa, but also have strong links with North Africa. Table A1.1 (Appendix) describes the area, population and population density in sub-Saharan African countries.

The total area of sub-Saharan Africa is 24.3 million km2 (Table 1). In terms of area, the largest country is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, whose territory covers 2.3 million km2. The second-largest is the Sudan, with 1.86 million km2. Other large countries, in descending order, are Chad, Niger, Angola, Mali, South Africa, Ethiopia and Mauritania, whose areas range from 1 million to 1.3 million km2. The area of the rest of the countries is less than 1 million km2, the smallest of which are Sao Tome and Principe (964 km2) and Seychelles (455 km2).

A 2013 estimate found the total population of sub-Saharan Africa to be about 918 million people. The most-populous country is Nigeria with 174.5 million inhabitants, followed by Ethiopia with almost 94 million people and the Democratic Republic of the Congo with 75.5 million people. The populations of South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania are about 48.6 and 48.2 million people, respectively, while the Sudan and Uganda both have about 35 million inhabitants. The populations of the remaining countries range from 25.2 million people in Ghana to 91 000 people in Seychelles.

Mauritius is the most densely populated country of sub-Saharan Africa – 648 people/km2. It is followed by Rwanda, the Comoros and Seychelles, with a population density of 456, 337 and 200 people/km2, respectively. The population density of the other countries ranges from 194 people/km2 in Sao Tome and Principe to just 3 people/km2 in Mauritania and Namibia.

Relative to all of the countries that make up the region, South Africa has the highest GDP at USD576 billion in 2012 (Table A1.2, Appendix). Nigeria, whose GDP stood at USD444 billion in 2012, ranks second. Next in the GDP ranking are Angola and Ethiopia with USD123 billion and USD109 billion, respectively. The GDP of the Sudan stands at USD85 billion while Ghana’s was close to USD83 billion in 2012. The other countries in the top ten are the United Republic of Tanzania (USD75 billion), Kenya (USD73 billion), Uganda (USD51 billion) and Cameroon (USD50.1 billion).

Conversely, Sao Tome and Principe, the Comoros and Seychelles have the smallest GDP, at USD397 million, USD868 million and USD1 billion, respectively, in 2012. They are followed by Guinea-Bissau (USD1.9 billion), Cabo Verde (USD2.1 billion), Djibouti (USD2.4 billion) and Somalia (USD2.4 billion).

In general, countries with the highest GDP in sub-Saharan Africa are also the most populous, whereas countries with the lowest GDP are the least populous (Table A1.1). Therefore, the next trend that will be examined is GDP per capita.

According to the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the average GDP per capita in the world was USD12 500 in 2012. Of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, only 5 – Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Gabon, Botswana and Mauritius – are above this average. The remaining 44 are not only below this average, but make up many of the poorest and least developed countries in the world. The World Bank classifies countries as low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and

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high-income.1 Using these classifications, only one country in the region (Equatorial Guinea) is classified as a high-income country, seven as upper-middle-income countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles and South Africa) and 11 as lower-middle-income countries (Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Ghana, Lesotho, Mauritania, Nigeria, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Swaziland and Zambia). The remaining countries are classified as low-income.

The following sections provide brief overviews of the economies of 11 countries selected for closer analysis. These 11 countries are: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. These countries were chosen as the sample for analysis as they represent a variety of backgrounds in terms of geography, natural resources and the nature of their fisheries and agricultural production. Overviews of these countries are given in alphabetical order.

2.2 Countries

In the next section, an overview of economic data from each selected country is presented in a table format, outlining GDP, GDP per capita, GDP composition, main industries and the percentage of the population living below the poverty line. In addition, a brief overview of the country’s recent political history and economic development is provided along with the country’s export and import values and main trading partners. To see the commodities that make up the main fisheries and agricultural export and import products, see Tables 31 and 32. Although agriculture often makes up a minority of the GDP composition, it is usually one of the largest employers of the country’s workforce. Finally, for this section and all subsequent sections, the term agriculture encompasses fisheries, aquaculture and forestry.

Côte d’Ivoire

Table 1. Côte d’Ivoire, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP

GDP per capita Country

comparison with the world

GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries

Population below poverty line (national

estimates)

USD39.88 billion USD1 700 197agriculture: 27.2% industry: 21.2% services: 51.6%

Foodstuffs, beverages; wood products, oil refining, gold mining, truck and bus assembly, textiles, fertilizer, building materials, electricity

42% (2006 est.)

Note: Services cover government activities, communications, transportation, finance, and all other private economic activities that do not produce material goods. Source: CIA (2014). After independence in 1960 and under the leadership of its first president, Mr Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire (Table 1) was one of the most prosperous and religiously harmonious African States for more than three decades. It established a close trade relationship with France, secured the support of foreign investors and developed extensive production of cocoa for exports. In 2002, civil war split the country between the rebel-held north and the government-controlled south. Since then, peace deals have alternated with renewed violence while the country has tried to move its way towards political resolution (BBC, 2013–2014).

1 Low-income countries are those with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of USD1 025 or less. The GNI per capita of lower-middle-income countries ranges from USD1 026 to USD4 035, while that of upper-middle-income countries ranges from USD4 036 to USD12 475. High-income countries have a GNI of USD12 476 or more.

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According to the United Nations (UN) International Trade Centre (2012), the total value of Côte d’Ivoire’s exports stood at USD8.6 billion that year. The main export destinations of Côte d’Ivoire are the United States of America, The Netherlands, France, Germany and Ghana.

The total value of imports stood at USD5.6 billion in 2012 (UN International Trade Centre). Côte d’Ivoire mainly imports from France and China.

Ghana

Table 2. Ghana, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries

Population below poverty line

(national estimates)

USD82.65 billion USD3 300 173agriculture: 22.7% industry: 27.3% services: 50%

Mining, lumbering, light manufacturing, aluminium smelting, food processing, cement, small commercial ship building

28.5% (2008 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). Ghana (Table 2) was the first black African nation in the region to achieve independence from a colonial power, in this instance from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Starting in April 1992, the period of democracy began when a constitution allowing a multiparty system was established. Modern Ghana is one of the best-administered countries in the region and is often seen as a model for political and economic reforms in Africa (BBC, 2013–2014). Reductions in poverty levels have largely been achieved through a competitive business environment and effective management of the country. According to the World Bank, the percentage of population living below the national poverty line decreased from 18.5 percent in 1992 to 9.6 percent in 2006. However, the magnitude of poverty varies according to different estimates; the CIA database suggests that 28.5 percent of Ghana’s population was living below the poverty line according to national estimates for 2008.

Ghana is rich in mineral resources. The major sources of foreign exchange are gold and cocoa production. In 2010, Ghana started oil production at its offshore Jubilee field, which was expected to boost economic growth. Despite the general global economic slowdown, effective macroeconomic management in Ghana along with higher prices for oil, gold and cocoa, helped to sustain high GDP growth in 2008–2012 (CIA, 2014).

With respect to exports, total value stood at USD18.8 billion in 2012 (United Nations International Trade Centre, 2012). The most important exported commodities are metals (gold in particular), pearls and precious stones (37.9 percent of total exports in 2012). According to the UN International Trade Centre, the main export destinations of Ghana in 2012 were South Africa (24 percent of total exports), India (10 percent), the United Arab Emirates (9 percent), France (7 percent), Italy (7 percent) and Viet Nam (7 percent).

The total value of Ghana’s imports stood at USD14 billion in 2012. Ghana imports goods mainly from China, Côte d’Ivoire, the United States of America and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

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Kenya

Table 3. Kenya, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries



USD75 billion USD1 800 196agriculture: 29.3% industry: 14.4% services: 53.6%

Small-scale consumer goods (plastic, furniture, batteries, textiles, clothing, soap, cigarettes, flour), agricultural products, horticulture, oil refining; aluminium, steel, lead; cement, commercial ship repair, tourism

50% (2000 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). Although Kenya’s ethnic diversity has created a vibrant culture, it has also been a source of endless ethnic conflicts. Kenya’s economic growth (Table 3) has been hampered by reliance upon the export of several primary goods with consistently low prices as well as by widespread corruption.

From 1978 to 2002, the country was ruled by Mr Daniel Arap Moi. The Kenya National Union, Kanu, was the only legal political party for much of the 1980s but the multiparty political process was restored in the early 1990s. More than a decade passed before a new opposition government took on the formidable economic problems facing the country in 2002. Despite efforts to tackle corruption, some donors estimated that up to USD1 billion was lost to corruption between 2002 and 2005. Among Kenya’s other challenges are a high poverty rate (50 percent according to national estimates for 2000 [Table 14]), high unemployment and crime (BBC, 2013–2014).

In March 2012, Kenya discovered oil deposits on its territory. If these are commercially viable, they may provide an opportunity for Kenya to increase its exports and to balance its growing trade deficit (CIA, 2014).

The value of Kenya’s exports stood at USD4 billion in 2012. The main export markets of Kenya in 2012 were the United Republic of Tanzania (11 percent), Uganda (11 percent), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (9 percent), the Netherlands (9 percent), the United States of America (8 percent), Zambia (6 percent) and Egypt (6 percent).

The total value of imports was USD14.4 billion in 2012. Kenya mostly imports good from China, the United Arab Emirates, India, Japan and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Madagascar

Table 4. Madagascar, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries



USD21.18 billion USD900 218agriculture: 27.8% industry: 16.2% services: 56%

Meat processing, seafood, soap, breweries, tanneries, sugar, textiles, glassware, cement, automobile assembly plant, paper, petroleum, tourism.

50% (2004 est.)

Source: CIA (2014)

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After discarding socialist economic policies in the mid-1990s, the policies of privatization and liberalization introduced by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) put Madagascar (Table 4) on a slow and steady economic growth path, although beginning from an extremely low level. However, the political crisis that began in 2009 undermined this growth strategy and led to a suspension of foreign aid. Poverty and competition for agricultural land have put pressure on the island’s diminishing forests, home to much of Madagascar’s unique wildlife, and consequently put pressure on its emerging tourism industry. Economic growth was slow in 2010–2012. Expansion into the mining and agriculture sectors, however, was expected to improve growth in 2013 (CIA, 2014).

Madagascar’s total export value stood at USD1.2 billion in 2012. According to the UN International Trade Centre, the main export market of Madagascar is France, which contributed 29 percent to the value of total exports in 2012. The other large export markets are China, Canada, Germany and India.

The value of Madagascar’s total imports in 2012 equalled USD2.65 billion, which is more than twice the value of its total exports. Madagascar mostly imports goods from China and France.

Mozambique

Table 5. Mozambique, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries




Aluminium, petroleum products, chemicals (fertilizer, soap, paints), textiles, cement, glass, asbestos, tobacco, food, beverages.

52% (2009 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). Mozambique (Table 5) is rich in natural resources. The main industries in terms of value are production of aluminium, petroleum, chemicals and tobacco. There is also a well-developed textiles industry and production of cement and glass.

At independence in 1975, Mozambique was one of the world’s poorest countries, and a brutal civil war from 1977–1992 only exacerbated the situation. A series of macroeconomic reforms initiated in 1987 and donor assistance helped to stabilize the economy. An introduction of fiscal reforms, including a value-added tax as well as the reform of the customs service, allowed the government to improve its revenue collection. Nevertheless, the country remained dependent on foreign assistance for 40 percent of its 2012 budget, and it remains economically poor (52 percent of the population is living below the poverty line according to national estimates for 2009). However, the situation is expected to improve in the next decade. The country’s natural resources continue to attract foreign investments into Mozambique. Exports have already increased owing to the production of natural aluminium in recent years, with the country expected to become one of the world’s largest exporters of cooking and thermal coal as well as liquefied natural gas in the next decade. The country also has high hydroelectric capacity and deposits of titanium (CIA, 2014).

The total value of Mozambique’s exports stood at USD3.5 billion in 2012. Mozambique mostly exports to the Netherlands (27 percent of total exports), South Africa (19 percent) and China (18 percent).

In terms of imports, the total value of Mozambique’s imports stood at USD6.2 billion in 2012. Most goods are imported from South Africa and China.

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Namibia

Table 6. Namibia, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries




Meatpacking, fish processing, dairy products, pasta and beverages; mining (diamonds, lead, zinc, tin, silver, tungsten, uranium, copper).

55.8% (2005 est.)

Note: The UNDP’s 2005 Human Development Report indicated that 34.9 percent of the population live on US$1 per day and 55.8 percent live on US$2 per day (2005 estimate). Source: CIA, 2014. After a bush war of almost 25 years, Namibia (Table 6) achieved independence in 1990. Namibia normally imports about 50 percent of its cereal requirements as, due to drought, food shortages in rural areas can be a significant challenge. Although Namibia’s GDP per capita is relatively high compared with other countries of the region, its unequal distribution is striking – 55.8 percent of the population live on USD2 per day (Table 17), and 16.7 percent of the population are unemployed according to the World Bank estimates for 2012. Namibia is also vulnerable to the rising cost of diamond mining. The HIV/AIDS epidemic, which is assessed to affect 25 percent of Namibians, significantly threatens the well-being of the population (BBC, 2013–2014).

According to the UN International Trade Centre, the total value of exported goods by Namibia stood at USD5.4 billion in 2012. The country is heavily dependent on trade with the Southern African Customs Union, its main trade partner (17 percent of total exports). Other important export destinations are South Africa, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (12 percent), Angola (9 percent) and Botswana (7 percent).

The value of total imports stood at USD7.2 billion in 2012.

Nigeria

Table 7. Nigeria, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries



USD444.3 billion USD2 700 179agriculture: 30.9% industry: 43% services: 26%

Crude oil, coal, tin, columbite; rubber products, wood; hides and skins, textiles, cement and other construction materials, food products, footwear, chemicals, fertilizer, printing, ceramics, steel

70% (2010 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). Nigeria (Table 7) gained independence in 1960. For many years, the country veered between civilian and military rule, with several coups, counter coups and one civil war (1967–1970). Since 1999, it has had civilian rule.

Despite Nigeria’s rich oil resources, about 70 percent of its people live below the poverty line as the oil wealth has not filtered down to the vast majority of the population. (BBC, 2013–2014). In 2008, Nigeria started implementing economic reforms such as modernizing the banking system, removing subsidies, and resolving regional disputes over the distribution of earnings from the oil industry. Owing to robust world oil prices and growth in non-oil sectors, Nigeria’s GDP rose steadily from 2007

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to 2012. However, the country is still overly dependent on the capital-intensive oil sector, which represents 80 percent of budgetary revenue and provides 95 percent of foreign exchange. Lack of infrastructure and slow implementation of reforms are key obstacles to long-term stable growth (CIA, 2014).

According to the UN International Trade Centre, the total value of Nigerian exports stood at USD100.9 billion in 2012. The main export destinations were the United States of America (17 percent), India (11 percent), Brazil (8 percent), China, Italy and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (6 percent each).

The total value of imports stood at USD40.8 billion in 2012. Goods are mainly imported from China, the United States of America, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Senegal

Table 8. Senegal, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries



USD26.29 billion USD2 000 193agriculture: 15% industry: 22.9% services: 62.1%

Agricultural and fish processing, phosphate mining, fertilizer production, petroleum refining; iron ore, zircon, and gold mining, construction materials, ship construction and repair

54% (2001 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). Although unemployment is high (48 percent according to 2007 estimates by the CIA) and poverty is widespread, Senegal (Table 8) has one of the region’s most stable economies. In contrast to many countries of the region, political participation and peaceful leadership are not new for the Senegalese, as the country has been ruled independently since 1960 (BBC, 2013–2014).

Senegal is heavily dependent on direct foreign investments and donor assistance. During an economic reform programme that started in 1994 and was backed by the donor community, real growth in GDP averaged 5 percent annually in the period 1995–2007. Annual inflation decreased to single digits. However, the global financial crisis cut GDP growth to 2.2 percent in 2009. The IMF invested in the Policy Support Initiative Programme in 2010 and approved a new three-year policy support instrument in the same year. As a result, the economy began to rebound in 2012 (CIA, 2014).

Senegal’s key export industries are phosphate mining, fertilizer production, and commercial fishing. The country is also working on iron ore and oil exploration projects. Although agricultural processing is less export oriented, this industry is important for the local population.

The total value of Senegal’s exports stood at USD2.5 billion in 2012. According to the UN International Trade Centre, the main export markets of Senegal in 2012 were Mali (16 percent of total exports), Switzerland (13 percent) and India (11 percent).

The total value of Senegal’s imports stood at USD6.4 billion in 2012. The major importers are France, Nigeria, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the Netherlands.

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South Africa

Table 9. South Africa, economic data

GDP PPP

(estimates 2012)

GDP per capita PPP

(estimates 2012)



(estimates 2012)

GDP composition,

by sector of origin

(estimates 2007)

Main Industries


(national estimates of

2009)

USD576.1 billion USD11 300 109agriculture: 9% industry: 26% services: 65%

Mining (world's largest producer of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, commercial ship repair.

31.30%

Source: CIA (2014). South Africa (Table 9) is one of Africa’s largest economies and is considered a middle-income emerging market with well-developed financial, legal, communications and transport sectors. Its stock exchange is the fifteenth largest in the world (CIA, 2014). Along with China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and India, South Africa is a member of the BRICS, a grouping of emerging world economic powerhouses (BBC, 2013–2014).

Despite South Africa’s modern infrastructure, which allows efficient distribution of goods to major urban centres throughout the country, some components impede growth. A slowdown in the economy began in the second half of 2007 owing to an electricity crisis. In addition, the global financial crisis decreased commodity prices and world demand. As a result, GDP fell almost 2 percent in 2009, although it has recovered since. The economic policy of the country has been focusing on controlling inflation and increasing employment, but unemployment (estimated at 25 percent in 2012), poverty (31.3 percent of the population live below the poverty line), and inequality remain significant challenges (CIA, 2014). An additional challenge is the fight against HIV/AIDS, with the country having the second-highest number of HIV/AIDS patients in the world. Free anti-retroviral drugs are available under a state-funded scheme (BBC, South Africa profiles).

The value of total exports stood at USD86.7 billion in 2012. According to the UN International Trade Centre, in term of value, the largest export markets are China (12 percent of total exports), the United States of America (9 percent) and Japan (6 percent).

The total value of South African imports was USD101.6 billion in 2012. Goods are mostly imported from China (14.4 percent of total imports), Germany (10.1 percent), Saudi Arabia (7.7 percent), the United States of America (7.4 percent) and Japan (4.6 percent) (CIA, 2014).

Uganda

Table 10. Uganda, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries




Sugar, brewing, tobacco, cotton textiles; cement, steel production.

24.5% (2009 est.)

Source: CIA, 2014.

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Since 1990, economic reforms have provided Uganda (Table 10) with a path of solid economic growth based on continued investment in infrastructure, improved incentives for production and exports, and lower inflation. Uganda has received about USD2 billion in multilateral and bilateral debt relief.

Uganda’s GDP growth has also largely recovered from the economic downturn caused by past reforms, averaging 6.2 percent in 2010 and 2011, and standing at 2.8 percent in 2012. Oil revenues and taxes are expected to become a larger source of government funding as oil production begins in the next few years (CIA, 2014). However, the global economic downturn pushed up food prices, which led to widespread protests in 2011 (BBC, 2013–2014).

The global financial crisis hurt Uganda’s exports, which declined in value from USD1.72 billion in 2008 to USD1.56 billion in 2009; however, sound management of the downturn allowed the country’s exports to bounce back in 2010, reaching a value of USD2.36 billion in 2012. Uganda’s main export partners are the Sudan (18 percent of exports), Kenya (11 percent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (10 percent), Germany (3 percent) and the United Republic of Tanzania and Italy (2 percent each) (UN International Trade Centre, 2012).

The value of total imports stood at USD6 billion in 2012. Goods are mainly imported from China, India, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates.

United Republic of Tanzania

Table 11. United Republic of Tanzania, economic data (2012 estimates)

GDP PPP

GDP per capita PPP



GDP composition,

by sector of origin

Main Industries




Agricultural processing (sugar, beer, cigarettes, sisal twine); mining (diamonds, gold, and iron), salt, soda ash; cement, oil refining, shoes, apparel, wood products,

36% (2002 est.)

Source: CIA (2014). The economy of the United Republic of Tanzania (Table 11) is heavily dependent on agriculture as well as mining, in which gold has particularly contributed to achieving high overall growth rates (6–7 percent per year between 2009 and 2012), even in the midst of the global economic downturn (CIA, 2014). Tourism is also an important source of foreign revenue; the United Republic of Tanzania’s attractions include Africa’s highest mountain, Kilimanjaro, and wildlife-rich national parks such as the Serengeti (BBC, 2013–2014).

Shortly after achieving independence from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the early 1960s, Tanganyika and Zanzibar merged to form the State of the United Republic of Tanzania in 1964. After a long period of one-party rule, the first democratic elections held in the country since the 1970s were held in 1995. Zanzibar’s semi-autonomous status and popular opposition has led to two contentious elections since 1995, which the ruling party won despite voting irregularities highlighted by international observers. The formation of a unity government between Zanzibar’s two leading parties succeeded in minimizing electoral tension in 2010 (CIA, 2014).

Although it remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with many of its people living below the poverty line (36 percent according to CIA estimates of 2002), it has had some success in attracting donor assistance and foreign investment (BBC, 2013–2014). In parallel, the United Republic of Tanzania has managed to transition successfully to a liberalized market economy. Implementing solid macroeconomic policies and extensive banking reforms has helped increase private-sector growth and investment and supported a positive growth rate, despite the world recession (CIA, 2014).

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According to the UN International Trade Centre, the total value of exports stood at USD2.5 billion in 2012, down from 3.1 billion in 2008. The main export destinations are South Africa (18 percent), Switzerland (14 percent), China and India (9 percent each) and Kenya (6 percent).

The value of total imports stood at USD8.6 billion in 2012. The goods are mainly imported from China, India, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan.

2.3 Summary

This first section has shown that the 11 countries examined vary widely in terms of GDP and population size and undoubtedly represent diverse economies, as is discussed further in later sections.

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3. FOOD DEMAND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

This section analyses current and future demand for food in sub-Saharan Africa. The main determinants of food demand are prices, income and consumer preferences as well as population size. Moreover, demographic changes will have an impact on food demand.

Building on the previous section, this section examines predicted population dynamics in the 11 selected countries up until 2050 (Section 3.1). Various dimensions of population dynamics (urban and rural population, age and level of education demographics) and their impact on food demand are discussed. This is followed by an analysis of the current level of undernourishment in these countries (Section 3.2) and the projected evolution in GDP (Section 3.3). After this, an examination of expected changes in demand due to shifts in prices and income is outlined through an investigation of the food demand literature (Section 3.4). Next, a discussion on how all these variables are likely to affect future food demand (Section 3.5) is presented. Finally, Section 3.6 provides a summary of all findings presented.

3.1 Population

Owing to the persistence of very high fertility rates, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have the highest population growth rate of any region in the period from 2014 to 2050 and is projected to be the driver of the population growth in Africa and the world (Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo, 2014).

The estimated size of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa is 918 million (2013 estimate, see Section 2), and this is expected to increase to 949 million people in 2015 and to 1.2 billion in 2025. By 2050, the population is estimated to reach more than 2 billion, a 119 percent increase compared with 2015 (Table 12). Overall, the population of the region will increase by 126 percent compared with its current level (2013).

Despite this larger trend, important regional differences exist (Table 12). It is noteworthy that among the 11 selected countries, the population of Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania and Nigeria will grow faster than others. However, following the path of many middle-income countries, South Africa is expected to have lower population growth rates in the period in question compared with the other ten selected countries.

Next, the driving forces behind these demographic changes are briefly discussed, including fertility, ageing of population, urbanization, migration and education. Population change very much depends on the fertility rate of a given area. Globally, the UN’s medium variant projection sees the fertility rate declining from 2.5 children per woman in 2010–2015 to 2.24 children per woman in 2045–2050.

The average fertility rate in the sub-Saharan Africa region is expected to be 5.1 children per woman in 2010–2015, which is double the world average value in the same period. The fertility rate is expected to decline to 4.14 children per woman in 2025–2030 and to 3.22 children per woman in 2045–2050. Nevertheless, although the gap between the sub-Saharan African average and the world average is narrowing, by 2050 the average fertility rate in the region will probably still be almost one child per woman higher than the world average.

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Table 12. Projections of total population size for selected sub-Saharan African countries, 2015–2050 (thousands)

Country 2015 2025 2050Percentage change

2015–2050

Côte d’Ivoire 21 295 26 414 42 339 99Ghana 26 984 32 509 45 670 69Kenya 46 749 59 386 97 173 108Madagascar 24 235 31 741 55 498 129Mozambique 27 122 34 459 59 929 121Namibia 2 392 2 830 3 744 57Nigeria 183 523 239 874 440 355 140Senegal 14 967 19 415 32 933 120South Africa 53 491 56 666 63 405 19Uganda 40 141 54 832 104 078 159United Republic of Tanzania 52 291 69 329 129 417 147Total Sub-Saharan Africa 949 175 1 216 991 2 074 446 119

(thousands)

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). Table 13 gives projections about total fertility for the 11 sub-Saharan African countries in the period from 2010 to 2050. Fertility rates are expected to decline in the period from 2010 to 2050 in all the selected countries.

Table 13. Projections of total fertility for selected sub-Saharan African countries, 2010–2050 (children per woman) Country 2010–15 2025–30 2045–50

Côte d’Ivoire 4.92 3.98 3.16

Ghana 3.89 3.13 2.54

Kenya 4.41 3.54 2.82

Madagascar 4.50 3.71 3.01

Mozambique 5.22 4.17 3.09

Namibia 3.08 2.63 2.03

Nigeria 6.00 5.10 3.79

Senegal 4.98 4.02 3.17

South Africa 2.40 2.09 1.87

Uganda 5.91 4.55 3.24

United Republic of Tanzania 5.24 4.59 3.34Sub-Saharan Africa average 5.10 4.14 3.22

World average 2.50 2.41 2.24

(children/woman)

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). Slower population growth brought about by reductions in fertility rates leads to population ageing, the process whereby the proportion of older persons in the population increases while that of younger persons decreases. Currently, about 8 percent of the total world population is above the age of 65 years with this proportion expected to reach 10 percent by 2025 and 16 percent by 2050.

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The current level of the population over the age of 65 in the sub-Saharan Africa region is 3.1 percent, which is substantially lower than the world average. However, the proportion of the population above the age of 65 in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase over time, in line with the projected global trends of overall population ageing, but at slower rates, with 3.3 percent of the population in 2025 and 4.9 percent of the population in 2050. In the meantime, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 in the world is estimated to reach 16 percent in 2050, which demonstrates that the difference in the share of population over the age of 65 between sub-Saharan Africa and the world is widening.

Table 14 presents the evolution of the proportion of the population above the age of 65 in the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa and the world.

Table 14. Projections for population over the age of 65 for selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2010–2050 (percentage)

Country 2010 2025 2050

(percentage)

Côte d’Ivoire 3.1 3.3 4.6

Ghana 3.5 3.8 6.8

Kenya 2.6 3.4 6.3


Mozambique 3.2 3.5 4

Namibia 3.4 4.4 8.4

Nigeria 2.7 2.8 3.8

Senegal 3.1 3 4.8


Uganda 2.4 2.4 4

United Republic of Tanzania 3.1 3.4 4.9

Sub-Saharan Africa average 3.1 3.3 4.9

World average 8 10 16 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). The proportion of the population over the age of 65 will probably increase in all 11 selected countries. Again, as a middle-income country, South Africa is expected to see its population age faster than that of the other selected countries. It is also projected to have the oldest population structure in 2050, with 10.5 percent of the population above the age of 65, double that of the sub-Saharan Africa average. The proportion of the population above the age of 65 in Namibia is also expected to be substantially higher than the sub-Saharan African average, with 8.4 percent in 2050. However, owing to persisting higher fertility rates than other selected countries, Nigeria and Uganda will have the youngest population structure in 2050, with 3.8 percent and 4 percent of the total population aged over 65, respectively. Similar to Uganda, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 in Mozambique is expected to be 4 percent.

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Table 15. Projections of life expectancy at birth for selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2050 (years)

Country 2010–15 2025–30 2045–50

(years)

Côte d’Ivoire 50.51 56.40 63.96

Ghana 60.99 63.48 66.12

Kenya 61.56 65.81 71.53

Madagascar 64.51 70.03 74.21

Mozambique 50.20 57.56 67.39

Namibia 64.30 66.30 71.90

Nigeria 52.29 58.20 65.41

Senegal 63.28 65.73 68.21

South Africa 57.11 60.88 68.16

Uganda 59.02 64.46 71.08



World average 70.00 72.80 75.90 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). According to UN predictions, globally, life expectancy at birth is projected to rise from 70 years in 2010–2015 to 76 years in 2045–2050. The average rise in life expectancy at birth for sub-Saharan African countries is considerably below this average, but it is projected to increase over time from 56 years in 2010–2015 to 61.4 years in 2025–2030 and to 67.8 years in 2045–2050 (Table 15).

One reason for shorter average life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan African countries is the devastating HIV/AIDS epidemic, which shortens life expectancy and eventually slightly slows population growth (Lutz and Samir, 2010).

Regarding individual countries, life expectancy at birth in 2045–2050 is projected to be the highest in Madagascar (74.2 years), Namibia (71.9 years) and the United Republic of Tanzania (72.5 years), while life expectancy at birth is expected to be the lowest in Côte d’Ivoire (63.96 years).

Table 16 illustrates the projected evolution in urbanization for selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2010 to 2050. Urbanization rates in the region are still below the world average, with projections showing that the level of urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa in 2050 will remain less than that in the rest of the world in 2025. However, all countries in the region will become more urbanized over time, with the average urban population in the region rising from almost 52 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2025 and then 67 percent in 2050.

Among individual selected countries, South Africa is expected to continue to be the most urbanized country in 2050, with 76.8 percent of the population residing in urban areas. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire will also probably have a large urban population share, 72 percent each, while Nigeria is projected to have 71 percent of its population residing in urban areas. However, the share of urban population in Uganda is forecast to be the lowest, at almost 37 percent in 2050. However, the relative increase in urbanization rates in Uganda is expected to be much higher than in other countries.

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Table 16. Population of selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa residing in urban areas, 2010–2050 (percentage)

Country 2010 2025 2050

(percentage)

Côte d’Ivoire 50.6 60.5 72.1

Ghana 51.2 60.2 72.3

Kenya 23.6 30.4 45.7


Mozambique 31.0 36.0 50.5

Namibia 37.8 46.6 61.5

Nigeria 49.0 57.9 71.3

Senegal 42.3 48.1 61.4


Uganda 15.2 22.0 36.9



World average 51.6 58.0 67.2 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). Table 17 shows the change in net migration rate, which is the difference between immigrants and emigrants of an area in a given period per 1 000 inhabitants, in the selected countries from 2010 to 2050.

In terms of migration, on average more people are expected to leave sub-Saharan Africa than enter it by 2050. The average net migration rate in the region is forecast to decrease from –0.2 per 1 000 people in 2010–2015 to –0.3 per 1 000 people in 2025–2030 and subsequently is expected to return to its 2010–2015 level in 2045–2050. As with many of these demographic shifts, the trend is not expected to be uniform across all countries. For this same time frame, Senegal, Ghana and Uganda are expected to have the highest net migration rates among the 11 selected countries, which are expected to increase over time. Côte d’Ivoire is the only country that is expected to have more immigrants than emigrants in the period in question.

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Table 17. Net migration rate (per 1 000 population), medium variant, 2010–2050

Country 2010–15 2025–30 2045–50

(per 1 000 population)

Côte d’Ivoire 0.5 0.2 0.1

Ghana -0.8 -0.6 -0.5

Kenya -0.2 -0.2 -0.1


Mozambique -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Namibia -0.3 0.0 0.0

Nigeria -0.4 -0.2 -0.1

Senegal -1.4 -1.0 -1.0

South Africa -0.4 -0.3 -0.3

United Republic of Tanzania -0.6 -0.3 -0.2

Uganda -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa average -0.2 -0.3 -0.2

World average 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). It is important to analyse the current and projected level of education in the region, as there is a direct correlation between the level of education, better health conditions and higher productivity. Table 18 presents the estimated proportion of the population for the world, Asia, Africa and sub-Saharan Africa above the age of 15 years that has obtained junior secondary or higher education, which will allow for further comparison.

Table 18. Projections of the proportions of the population (above age 15) that have a junior secondary or higher education for sub-Saharan Africa as well as for continents (percentage)

Sex Area 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(percentage)

Female World 59 65 71 77 82

Africa 35 43 52 60 67

Asia 54 62 69 76 82

Sub-Saharan Africa 29 38 47 55 63

Male World 67 72 76 79 83

Africa 45 52 58 63 68

Asia 66 72 76 81 84

Sub-Saharan Africa 39 47 54 59 65 Source: UN Scenario of IIASA education projections, as reported by Lutz and Samir (2010). It is notable that the proportion of the population with at least a junior secondary or higher education in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase, but will remain smaller than that in the rest of the world and slightly smaller than that of Africa as a whole. As reported by Lutz and Samir (2010), in some individual countries, such as Ethiopia and Burkina Faso, by 2050 almost 40 percent and 35 percent, respectively, of the working population may still be educated at less than primary level. In contrast, the level of population with at least junior secondary or higher education in Asia, which like Africa has many low-income countries, is much higher than in Africa and closer to the world average.

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Table 18 also shows that although in 2010 significantly more adult men in the region were better educated than adult women (in 2010, 39 percent of the population versus 29 percent), this trend is likely to change by 2050 when the education gap between men and women will narrow. It is forecast that 65 percent of men and 63 percent of woman will have a junior secondary or higher education in 2050.

While many of these demographic changes will favour economic development and social progress in the region, sub-Saharan Africa will still need to contend with the serious plight of undernourishment, which will undermine the physical and cognitive development of vulnerable populations and their ability to procure decent livelihoods.

3.2 Undernourishment

FAO defines chronic undernourishment as “a state, lasting for at least one year, of inability to acquire enough food, defined as a level of food intake insufficient to meet dietary energy requirements” (FAO, 2013a). Chronic undernourishment is defined as being synonymous with hunger. The prevalence of undernourishment is defined as the probability that an individual randomly selected from a population is found to be undernourished.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest proportion of undernourished people in the world. According to FAO, IFAD and WFP (2013), the prevalence of undernourishment in the region from 2011 to 2013 was 24.8 percent, more than twice as high as the prevalence for the region with the next-highest level of undernourishment (11.8 percent in Asia and the Pacific).

The United Nations has repeatedly expressed its desire to eradicate hunger, and at the World Food Summit (WFS) in 1996 it committed itself to fight against hunger as expressed through Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG 1 - eradicate extreme poverty and hunger), which is directly linked to the population and its growth and aims to halve the proportion of the total population that is hungry between 1990 and 2015.

According to UN statistics, MDG 1 has been reached globally. However, the pace of change in sub-Saharan Africa appears to be too slow to meet MDG 1 by 2015 (United Nations, 2013). Though the prevalence of undernourishment in the region has decreased by 24.2 percent since 1990-1992 to 2011–2013, the absolute number of undernourished people has increased from 173.1 million people to 222.7 million people since 1990–92 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013), which is a 28.7 percent increase. Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected region in terms of undernourishment, with the prevalence of undernourishment in the region at 24.8 percent in 2011–2013, while in Asia it was 13.5 percent.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also the only region that saw the number of people living in extreme poverty, on less than USD1.25 a day, rise steadily, from 290 million in 1990 to 414 million in 2010, accounting for more than a third of people worldwide who are destitute (United Nations, 2013).

Table 19 presents information about the number of undernourished people in the region and the 11 selected countries as well as the prevalence of undernourishment in the period from 2011 to 2013.

Among individual selected countries, the number of undernourished in South Africa, the only middle-income country in the list, and Ghana, the third-ranked country in terms of income among the selected countries, is defined as statistically not significant. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment in these countries remained at less than 5 percent in the period from 2011 to 2013, which suggests that the situation regarding undernourishment there is not serious relative to other sub-Saharan countries.

However, the hunger statistics for other countries are a cause for concern. For this reason, the progression of undernourishment over time in these countries is examined below.

The effect of poverty on hunger is particularly exacerbated in rural areas. The rural poor, who are mainly farmers, women and youth, rely heavily on agriculture as a source of livelihoods. Income

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inequality in rural areas is a long-standing issue, which is rooted in inequitable access to productive assets, including land, financial services, livestock, healthcare and education. Gender inequality is also a major obstacle to the eradication of hunger in the region.

Table 19. Hunger statistics in sub-Saharan Africa, 2011–2013

Country Number of

Undernourished (million)

Prevalence of undernourishment

(percentage)

Ghana ns < 5

South Africa ns < 5

Namibia 0.7 29.3

Senegal 2.8 21.6

Côte d’Ivoire 4.2 20.5

Madagascar 6.0 27.2

Mozambique 9.0 36.8

Uganda 10.7 30.0

Kenya 11.0 25.8

Nigeria 12.1 7.3 United Republic of Tanzania 15.7 33.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 222.7 24.8 Source: FAO (2013a). Among the selected countries, the United Republic of Tanzania is the country with the highest number of undernourished. In the period from 2011 to 2013, it registered 15.7 million hungry people, which is 33 percent of the population. This is probably due to the fact that the United Republic of Tanzania has undergone rapid and radical governmental and economic transitions in the span of 40 years, from a colonial system to a programme linking rural households to social services, to a market economy. Such changes have seriously affected the economy, and resulted in a gradual and prolonged decline of all growth indicators in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the incidence of poverty varies greatly across the country, it is highest among rural families living in arid and semi-arid regions that depend exclusively on livestock and food crop production.

Nigeria has the second-largest undernourished population, estimated at 12.1 million people in 2011–13. However, the prevalence of undernourishment has been significantly reduced – from 21.1 percent in 1990–1992 to 7.3 percent in 2011–2013 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013). Despite Nigeria’s abundant agricultural resources and oil wealth, hunger in the country is still a serious issue. Of an estimated 71 million hectares of arable land, only about half is currently under production. This means that, theoretically, the area of land under cultivation could be doubled, which would contribute to Nigeria’s economic growth and food sovereignty. The productivity of the rural population is also hindered by weak health, particularly because of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria (IFAD, 2014).

Kenya had 11 million undernourished people in 2011–13. Although the prevalence of undernourishment has decreased by 26 percent from 1990, it is still very high, with 25.8 percent in 2011–13. The rural economy of Kenya depends mainly on smallholder farming, which produces the majority of Kenya's agricultural output. About 70 percent of the poor are in the central and western regions, living in arid and semi-arid areas that have medium to high potential for agriculture. Droughts and floods have increased in frequency and intensity in the last decade. Severe drought occurred in 2010 and 2011, with 4 million people requiring food assistance (IFAD, 2014).

The number of undernourished in Uganda was estimated at 10.7 million people in 2011–13. Hunger remains a significant issue, as the prevalence of undernourishment has increased since 1990 – up from

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11 percent to 30.1 percent in 2011–2013. Most of Uganda’s poor rural people live in fragile, dry and subhumid regions where the variability of rainfall and soil fertility presents significant challenges to farming. The country’s poor are also vulnerable to HIV/AIDS, with the prevalence among adults aged 15–49 at about 7.3 percent in 2014 (UNAIDS, 2014)).

Mozambique had an estimated 9 million hungry people in 2011–13. The country has substantially reduced the prevalence of undernourishment – down from 57.8 percent in 1990–92 to 36.4 percent in 2011–13. However, Mozambique has the highest relative prevalence of undernourishment among the 11 selected countries. The Mozambique civil war, which lasted for 16 years, left most of the rural infrastructure damaged or destroyed and large portions of arable land infested with landmines, which has only aggravated poverty levels in the country.

The total number of hungry people in Madagascar amounted to 6 million people in 2011–13, while prevalence of undernourishment in the country stood at 27.2 percent, which is an increase of 11.6 percent since 1990 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013). The population of the country has been growing much faster than its per capita income, and despite the economic recovery starting in 1991, the population is still extremely poor (Section 2). Malagasy farmers practise subsistence agriculture on family-size plots of an average of 1.3 ha, producing barely enough to feed their families. With a significant projected growth in the population due to the high fertility rate of 4.5 children per woman in 2010–15 and with the GDP growth projected to be 2.1 percent in the same period, the situation with undernourishment may intensify.

The total number of hungry people in Côte d’Ivoire stood at 4.2 million people. The prevalence of undernourishment increased from 13.3 percent in 1990–92 to 20.5 percent in 2011–13 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013). Similar to Mozambique, the civil war of 2002 disrupted the economic, social and political development of the country, which resulted in the decline of the availability of basic necessities (Section 2). In addition, the high prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the country is a further point of vulnerability for Côte d’Ivoire. Rural poverty has traditionally been higher in the northern savannahs, where the potential for agriculture has not been realized.

Senegal had an estimated 2.8 million hungry people in 2011–2013, while the prevalence of undernourishment stood at 21.6 percent, a slight decrease of 1.7 percent compared with 1990.

The number of undernourished in Namibia stood at 0.7 million in 2011–13. The prevalence of undernourishment in the country was at 28.9 percent from 2011 to 2013, which is 18.9 percent higher than from 1990 to 1992 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013). Although the GDP per capita of the country is the second highest among the 11 selected countries, and the seventh highest in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 (Section 2), the income gap between the rich and poor is substantial. Moreover, the country has one of the highest levels of HIV/AIDS in the region at 16 percent among adults aged 15 to 49 in 2014, which is a major factor in the incidence of poverty and vulnerability among the rural poor (UNAIDS, 2014).

21

3.3 Gross domestic product

Income is one of the most important determinants of food demand. Future growth in GDP, combined with an analysis of population growth, allows predictions about the progression of GDP per capita and its implications for food demand.

Projections of future GDP growth in the sub-Saharan Africa region are available from the IMF for the period up to 2018. Predictions for later years are not available. All growth rates presented are annual unless otherwise specified.

According to the IMF, the average yearly GDP growth in the world in 2013–18 is estimated to be 4.2 percent, although it will slow over this period. The decrease is expected to be caused largely by structural transformations in the emerging economies. This is because China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies are maturing from a rapid, investment-intensive growth stage to a more balanced model of growth. The current growth rate will probably reach its structural limits, bringing down global growth despite the recovery from the global financial and economic crisis expected in advanced economies after 2013 (Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo, 2014).

The average yearly GDP growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa in 2013–18 (5.6 percent) is expected to be higher than that of Africa as a whole (4.9 percent), and also projected to be higher than the world average in the same time frame. According to projections, annual GDP growth for sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 5 percent on average in 2013 to 6 percent in 2014 and then gradually decrease to 5.5 percent in 2017 before rising slightly to 5.7 percent in 2018 (Table 20).

Table 20. GDP growth projections in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018 (percentage)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Avg. yearly growth

rate 2013–2018

Côte d’Ivoire 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.4 6.9 7.7Ghana 7.9 6.1 5.5 5.1 5.1 8.0 6.3Kenya 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.6 5.8 6.1 6.2Madagascar 2.6 3.8 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.1 4.2Mozambique 7.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0Namibia 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3Nigeria 6.2 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.8Senegal 4.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.7South Africa 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.1Uganda 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.7United Republic of Tanzania 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.9Sub-Saharan Africa average 5.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.6

(percentage)

Country

Note: Gross domestic product, constant prices, percentage change. National currency. Source: International Monetary Fund (2014).

In 2012, South Africa and Nigeria had the highest GDPs among all countries of sub-Saharan Africa, at USD576 billion and USD444 billion, respectively (Section 2). These countries will probably continue as the largest economies in the region in 2013–18, with their GDPs standing at USD773 billion and USD736 billion in 2018. South Africa’s GDP is projected to grow at 3.1 percent per year on average in 2013–18, which is lower than the other selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa and the world. In contrast, Nigeria’s GDP is estimated to grow at 6.8 percent per year on average, which is faster than the average for the other selected countries and the world. Similarly, Uganda, Ghana and Kenya are forecast to grow their GDPs at slightly higher rates than the average yearly GDP growth rate of the region in 2013–18.

22

In terms of GDP growth rates, Mozambique is expected to be among the 15 fastest-growing economies in the world, according to IMF projections, and to have the highest average growth rate among the 11 selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with an annual average growth of 8 percent in the period from 2013 to 2018. However, its growth rates are forecast to decline over time from 8.5 percent in 2014 to 8 percent in 2018. Côte d’Ivoire’s GDP is projected to grow at an annual average of 7.7 percent, which is higher than the average GDP growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa.

The GDP growth in Madagascar is estimated to continue to be lower than in other selected countries, but it average annual growth rates will probably increase from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent. Namibia’s GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 4.3 percent in 2013–18, which is lower than the average for sub-Saharan Africa. Senegal’s average annual GDP growth will also be lower than the regional average in 2013–2018, but then increase from 4 percent in 2013 to 5.1 percent in 2018.

Table 21 shows the evolution in GDP per capita growth in the selected countries in the period from 2013 to 2018, while Table 22 presents GDP per capita in the 11 selected countries of the region in 2012 and the projected GDP per capita of these countries in 2018.

Table 21. GDP per capita growth projections in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018 (percentage)

Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Avg. yearly growth

rate 2013–2018 (percentage)

Côte d’Ivoire 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.8 4.5Ghana 5.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.4 5.3 3.6Kenya 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.7 2.9 3.2 3.2Madagascar 0.1 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.7 1.7Mozambique 4.9 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9Namibia 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4Nigeria 3.4 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.9Senegal 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.0South Africa 0.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9Uganda 2.3 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.3United Republic of Tanzania 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.8Sub-Sahran Africa average 3.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.8 Note: Gross domestic product, constant prices, percentage change. National currency. Source: International Monetary Fund (2014). Parallel with the increase in average GDP growth rate in sub-Saharan African countries, the region’s population growth will slow down (Table 2.1). These trends cause the growth in GDP per capita in all 11 selected countries and the region in 2013–2018.

In 2012, South Africa had the largest GDP per capita among these countries, at USD11 300. It is projected that South Africa will continue to have the highest GDP per capita among these countries, with USD14 094 at the end of this period. Its GDP per capita will grow at a faster rate in 2013–18 than in 2008–2013, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent versus 1.2 percent. However, GDP per capita growth in the country is expected to be substantially below the region’s average of 4.8 percent.

Namibia’s GDP per capita at USD7 800 ranked second among the 11 selected countries in 2012 (Section 2). The country’s GDP per capita at USD10 666 in 2018 will probably continue to be the second largest among these countries. Its GDP per capita growth rate is expected to increase from 2.8 percent to 3.4 percent.

23

Table 22. GDP per capita in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 and 2018

CountryGDP

per capita 2012

GDP per capita

2018

Change 2012–2018 (percentage)

Côte d’Ivoire 1 700 2 488 46Ghana 3 300 4 585 39Kenya 1 800 2 408 34Madagascar 900 1 170 30Mozambique 1 200 1 820 52Namibia 7 800 10 666 37Nigeria 2 700 3 800 41Senegal 2 100 2 532 21South Africa 11 300 14 094 25Uganda 1 400 1 932 38United Republic of Tanzania 1 600 2 274 42 Note: Gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP (current international dollar). Source: International Monetary Fund, (2014). Nigeria’s GDP per capita will grow at 3.9 percent per annum in 2013–18, which is below the average for sub-Saharan Africa in this period and marginally lower than the average registered in 2008–13 (at 4 percent per year). Nigeria’s GDP per capita is projected to be USD3 800 in 2018.

At USD900, Madagascar’s GDP per capita was among the 10 lowest in the region and the lowest among the 11 selected countries (Section 2). Its GDP per capita will grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent in the period from 2013 to 2018 and by 30 percent to USD1 170 in 2018. Nevertheless, its GDP per capita will remain the lowest among the 11 countries in question. Mozambique’s GDP per capita will probably be the second lowest among the selected countries. However, its GDP per capita is estimated to grow at 5.9 percent on average in 2013–18, which is higher than the average for sub-Saharan Africa and the highest among the 11 selected countries, which will result in a 52 percent increase in GDP per capita to USD1 820 in 2018.

The GDP per capita of the remaining countries will grow at rates that are below the average for sub-Saharan Africa.

3.4 Food demand

Food demand literature is generally concerned with how demand depends on variables such as price and income. It is here below as reviewed by Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014).

The price of a commodity is an important determinant of demand. According to what is called Timmer’s proposition, own-price elasticities of demand are larger in absolute value for low-income countries than for high-income countries. Similarly, Engel’s law suggests that the proportion of food expenditure by a household decreases as the income level increases. This means that the poorer the household, the higher the share of total expenditure spent on food. In addition, purchase decisions depend on characteristics such as household size, age composition and education.

Muhammad et al. (2013) analysed food demand for 144 countries. The study provides own-price and income elasticities for nine broad consumption categories and eight food subcategories. The results for

24

the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa are examined here. The 144 countries covered are divided into low-, middle- and high-income countries.2

Table 23 presents the average budget shares for the aggregate consumption categories and each of the three country groups, together with the conditional budget shares for eight food subcategories. In terms of the broad aggregates, food, beverages and tobacco have a budget share of 0.485 in low-income countries, but only 0.204 in high-income countries. This implies that, as Engel’s law suggests, the lower the income, the larger the share spent on food.

Table 23. Budget shares for broad aggregates and conditional budget shares for food categories

Country group

Food, beverages & tobacco

Clothing & footwear

HousingHousing

furnishingMedical &

healthTransport &

communicationRecreation Education Other

Low 0.485 0.061 0.135 0.052 0.045 0.102 0.031 0.034 0.054Middle 0.311 0.055 0.183 0.056 0.059 0.155 0.061 0.033 0.087High 0.204 0.051 0.187 0.060 0.089 0.149 0.095 0.031 0.134

Income level

Cereals Meats Fish Dairy Oils & fatsFruits &

vegetablesFood others

Beverages & tobacco

Low 0.233 0.134 0.063 0.078 0.049 0.181 0.146 0.116Middle 0.124 0.172 0.035 0.099 0.030 0.145 0.208 0.187High 0.086 0.118 0.041 0.066 0.014 0.098 0.369 0.208 Source: Muhammad et al. (2013). As for the conditional budget shares, it is noticeable that for high-income countries, they are very low for cereals, meats, fish, dairy, oils and fats and fruits and vegetables; these budget shares are higher for low-income countries; in some cases considerably higher, in a relative sense. For “food others”, i.e. meals away from home, and beverages and tobacco, high-income countries have the highest shares, which would seem reasonable as higher-income households would have more money to spend on these non-necessities.

Table 24 shows own price elasticities for different food aggregates by country. The listing is according to per capita level of income. The results illustrate that, for all food aggregates, the absolute value of the own price elasticity becomes lower with increases in income.

2 Muhammed et al. (2013) classifies low-income countries as those with real per capita income less than 15 percent of the level in the United States of America, middle-income ones as those with real per capita income of 15–45 percent of said level, while high-income countries have real per capita income equal to or greater than 45 percent of said level. This classification is different from UN and the World Bank classification of countries.

25

Table 24. Own price elasticities for food aggregates

Country Cereals Meats Fish DairyOils & fats

Fruits & vegetables

Food other

Beverages & tobacco

Middle-income countries

South Africa -0.266 -0.507 -0.415 -0.525 -0.287 -0.378 -0.716 -0.673

Low-income countries

Namibia -0.348 -0.546 -0.458 -0.565 -0.362 -0.428 -0.845 -0.767

Ghana -0.423 -0.581 -0.500 -0.601 -0.431 -0.476 -1.173 -0.935

Nigeria -0.398 -0.574 -0.489 -0.594 -0.408 -0.462 -0.992 -0.857

Senegal -0.388 -0.574 -0.486 -0.594 -0.399 -0.458 -0.949 -0.837

Kenya -0.410 -0.575 -0.493 -0.595 -0.419 -0.468 -1.069 -0.891

Côte d’Ivoire -0.398 -0.578 -0.491 -0.597 -0.409 -0.464 -0.989 -0.859

Uganda -0.426 -0.585 -0.504 -0.606 -0.435 -0.480 -1.177 -0.941

United Republic of Tanzania -0.413 -0.590 -0.504 -0.610 -0.424 -0.477 -1.044 -0.892

Mozambique -0.440 -0.598 -0.516 -0.619 -0.448 -0.493 -1.280 -0.987

Madagascar -0.421 -0.585 -0.502 -0.606 -0.430 -0.478 -1.119 -0.919 Source: Muhammad et al. (2013).

The lowest own price elasticity (absolute value) is observed for cereals, where demand is shown to be not significantly affected by changes in price. Oils and fats as well as fish also have very low own price elasticities. However, own price elasticities are much higher for beverages and tobacco and other food, including meals taken away from home.

Table 25 shows expenditure elasticities for food aggregates. As expected, the absolute value decreases with income level for each food aggregate.

For most countries, beverages and tobacco and other food have expenditure elasticities close to one. This means that an increase in income will lead to a proportionately similar increase in expenditure on these products. For all the other aggregates, elasticities vary between 0.363 (cereals, South Africa) and 0.843 (dairy, Mozambique). Thus, these commodities are perceived more as necessities in the sense that while increases in income will lead to higher expenditures, the relative increase in expenditure is less than the relative increase in income.

Table 25. Expenditure elasticities for food aggregates

Country Cereals Meats Fish DairyOils &

fatsFruits &

vegetablesFood other

Beverages & tobacco

Middle-income countriesSouth Africa 0.363 0.692 0.566 0.715 0.392 0.516 0.976 0.917Low-income countriesNamibia 0.475 0.745 0.625 0.770 0.494 0.583 1.152 1.046Ghana 0.577 0.792 0.682 0.819 0.588 0.649 1.599 1.275Nigeria 0.542 0.783 0.667 0.810 0.557 0.630 1.352 1.169Senegal 0.529 0.782 0.663 0.809 0.544 0.624 1.293 1.141Kenya 0.559 0.784 0.672 0.811 0.571 0.638 1.457 1.215Côte d’Ivoire 0.543 0.787 0.670 0.814 0.558 0.633 1.349 1.171Uganda 0.581 0.798 0.687 0.826 0.592 0.654 1.605 1.283United Republic of Tanzania 0.563 0.804 0.687 0.832 0.577 0.650 1.424 1.216Mozambique 0.600 0.815 0.703 0.843 0.611 0.671 1.745 1.346Madagascar 0.574 0.798 0.685 0.826 0.586 0.651 1.525 1.253 Source: Muhammad et al. (2013).

26

The elasticities presented provide information as to how demand will change as income increases. As illustrated, this will vary from country to county, depending on initial income level, and will also vary for different food products. Price effects are also important.

3.5 Future food demand

This section examines the extent to which the food available in the region satisfies the average dietary energy requirements of the population. This demonstrates that the problem of undernourishment is not only one of food availability, as there is in fact enough food to meet the dietary energy requirements of the average person. Instead, the issue of undernourishment is likely to be found in challenges to food access, which is mainly due to economic affordability. With income expected to generally rise in the region, as demonstrated in Section 3.3, it is expected that a decrease in the level of undernourishment will be seen over time. In addition, the evolution of the contribution of staples (cereals, roots and tubers) to overall calorie requirements is also explored, demonstrating that cereal contribution is declining over time, which suggests that other food groups such as fruits and vegetables and animal products will be consumed more and that diets will become more diversified.

According to the latest FAO statistics, the average dietary energy supply (DES) increasing between 2003 and 2013 in all 11 selected countries except Namibia and Senegal, in line with the world trend in average per capita calorie supply increase (Table 26). The DES is expressed as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement per capita per day. A DES of more than 100 percent indicates a supply above the minimum requirement, as opposed to a DES of less than 100 percent. Data is provided for three-year reference periods, here beginning in 2003–05 and ending in 2011–13.

Table 26. Average dietary energy supply adequacy in sub-Saharan Africa, Africa, developed regions and the world, 2003–2013 (percentage)

2003–05 2004–06 2005–07 2006–08 2007–09 2008–10 2009–11 2010–12 2011–13

World 118 118 119 119 120 120 121 121 122Developed regions 136 136 136 136 136 135 134 135 135Africa 112 112 113 114 114 115 115 116 117

Sub-Saharan Africa 106 107 108 108 108 109 110 110 111South Africa 124 124 125 125 125 125 126 129 132Namibia 101 100 98 97 95 94 93 94 96Ghana 118 121 124 127 129 133 136 140 144Nigeria 123 125 126 127 127 127 127 127 127Senegal 105 107 109 110 111 110 106 104 104Kenya 95 97 99 99 99 100 100 100 101Côte d’Ivoire 125 126 127 127 126 126 125 125 124Uganda 113 112 110 109 109 108 107 107 110United Republic of Tanzania 100 101 102 102 102 102 103 103 105Mozambique 99 99 99 99 98 99 100 100 102Madagascar 98 99 101 101 100 100 99 100 102

(percent)

Source: FAO (2013b). The DES exceeded 100 percent in all countries of sub-Saharan Africa for every year from 2003 to 2013 except in Namibia, Kenya, Mozambique and Madagascar. However, it did increase over the period in Kenya, Mozambique and Madagascar and exceeded 100 percent by 2011–13. In Namibia, the DES was 101 and 100 percent in 2003–05 and 2004–06 and then decreased to 96 percent in 2011–13 as the country experienced droughts and floods from 2005 to 2013, which consequently affected food security.

These trends indicate that the average sub-Saharan African consumer has a supply of calories that is above the minimum requirement for consumption, although this supply is still significantly lower than the global average and that of the average in developed regions. Moreover, although an adequate supply may be available to the average sub-Saharan African consumer, these calories may not always

27

come from a diverse range of food sources to make up a nutritious diet. The extent to which different food groups contribute to these dietary energy requirements varies significantly among countries, with some countries deriving relatively more calories from nutrients such as protein and fats.

Table 27 presents the proportion of dietary supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers in sub-Saharan Africa, developed regions and the world. In the period from 2003 to 2010, the diet of people in sub-Saharan Africa contained, on average, a higher percentage of cereals, roots and tubers than in that of people in the rest of the world and this share was double that in developed countries. Nevertheless, there are considerable regional differences among countries. The share of cereals, roots and tubers in dietary supply in Uganda is lower than the world average (45 percent compared with 51 percent in 2008–2010), while that of South Africa is slightly higher than the world average (54 percent in 2008–2010). In contrast, the average proportion of cereals, roots and tubers in Mozambique and Madagascar was 75 percent and 79 percent, respectively, in 2008–2010, which is substantially higher than the world average and more than twice as high as in developed countries (at 32 percent).

Table 27. Share of dietary energy supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers in sub-Saharan Africa, developed regions and the world, 2003–2010 (percentage)

2003–05 2004–06 2005–07 2006–08 2007–09 2008–10

(percentage) World 52 52 51 51 51 51

Developed regions 32 32 32 32 32 32

Africa 63 63 63 63 63 63

Sub-Saharan Africa 64 64 64 63 63 63

South Africa 56 56 55 55 54 54

Namibia 60 59 58 57 57 57

Ghana 67 66 65 64 64 64

Nigeria 63 64 64 64 64 65

Senegal 64 63 63 62 62 62

Kenya 57 57 57 56 56 55

Côte d’Ivoire 65 66 66 67 68 67

Uganda 45 45 45 45 45 45

United Republic of Tanzania 60 59 58 59 59 59

Mozambique 76 75 74 74 74 75

Madagascar 78 78 78 78 79 79 Source: FAO (2013b). It can be expected that with an increase in income, all countries of the region will experience a shift in dietary consumption towards more expensive nutrients such as protein and fats in 2014–2050. However, the degree to which the gap in consumption of these products will narrow between sub-Saharan Africa, the world average and developed countries will vary depending on the speed of gains in per capita income and the persistence of poverty in individual countries.

28

The findings of a recent analysis of cross-country growth experience3 mentioned in FAO, WFP and IFAD (2012) have shown that growth in agriculture reduces poverty where the income gap among the poorest of the poor is not significant. In low-income countries (excluding sub-Saharan Africa), the increase in GDP due to agricultural growth reduces poverty five times more than an identical increase in non-agricultural growth. Significantly, in sub-Saharan Africa its impact on the reduction of poverty is 11 times greater than that of non-agricultural growth.

Production and productivity of fisheries and aquaculture in developing and poor countries also plays an important role in reducing poverty. First, a significant number of individuals employed in the fisheries and aquaculture sector are considered low-income, especially women, who are traditionally involved in processing activities. These livelihoods contribute important income from fisheries that can go towards improved nutrition (FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012). Second, fishery resources are a vital source of both macronutrients and micronutrients for humans, as fish is a unique source of the essential long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, which are important for vascular health and for optimal brain and neurodevelopment in children.

Although globally fish accounts for about 17 percent of animal protein intake, there is a significant difference in consumption among countries. Low-income food-deficit developing countries consume an average of 10.1 kg per capita while industrialized countries consume 28.7 kg per capita (FAO, WFP and IFAD, 2012). However, in some poor countries, fish contributes to more than 50 percent of animal protein intake. Indeed, in coastal sub-Saharan African countries, the proportion of dietary protein that comes from fish is very high: 63 percent in Sierra Leone and Ghana, 62 percent in the Gambia, and 47 percent in Senegal (FAO, 2012a).

3.6 Analysis

The analysis below begins by summarizing the expected changes in the population and GDP of sub-Saharan Africa (Table 28). Subsequently, the ways in which these changes may affect food demand in the region from 2014 to 2050 are examined.

3 The countries and territories included for analysis are: Albania, Armenia, Belize, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Honduras, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Mongolia, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Republic of Moldova, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syrian Arab Republic, Timor-Leste, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia.

29

Tab

le 2

8. E

stim

ated

ch

ange

s in

pop

ulat

ion

an

d G

DP

in s

ub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ica

A

rea

Pro

ject

ed c

han

ges

S

ub-S

ahar

an

Afr

ica

D

emog

rap

hic

ch

ange

s ex

pec

ted

by

2025

an

d 2

050

T

he to

tal s

ize

of th

e po

pula

tion

wil

l inc

reas

e by

31

perc

ent f

rom

918

mil

lion

in 2

013

to 1

.2 b

illio

n in

202

5 an

d by

119

per

cent

tom

ore

than

2 b

illi

on p

eopl

e by

205

0 co

mpa

red

wit

h 20

13.

T

here

wil

l be

an o

vera

ll d

ecre

ase

in th

e fe

rtil

ity

rate

fro

m a

bout

5.1

chi

ldre

n pe

r w

oman

in 2

010–

2015

to 4

.14

in20

25–2

030

and

3.22

in 2

045–

2050

. Alt

houg

h th

e ga

p be

twee

n th

e su

b-S

ahar

an A

fric

an a

vera

ge a

nd th

e w

orld

ave

rage

isna

rrow

ing,

by

2050

the

aver

age

fert

ilit

y ra

te in

the

regi

on w

ill p

roba

bly

stil

l be

alm

ost o

ne c

hild

per

wom

an h

ighe

r th

an th

e w

orld

aver

age.

Thi

s ra

te d

emon

stra

tes

the

popu

lati

on a

s th

e fa

stes

t gro

win

g in

the

wor

ld.

T

he p

ropo

rtio

n of

the

popu

lati

on o

ver

65 y

ears

is e

xpec

ted

to in

crea

se f

rom

3.1

per

cent

in 2

010

to 3

.3 p

erce

nt b

y 20

25 a

nd to

4.9

perc

ent b

y 20

50. H

owev

er, p

opul

atio

n ag

eing

in th

e re

gion

is o

ccur

ring

at a

slo

wer

rat

e th

an it

is g

loba

lly, w

ith

the

diff

eren

cein

the

shar

e of

pop

ulat

ion

over

65

betw

een

sub-

Sah

aran

Afr

ica

and

the

wor

ld w

iden

ing.

A

n in

crea

se in

life

exp

ecta

ncy

is p

roje

cted

fro

m 5

6 ye

ars

in 2

010–

2015

to 6

1.4

year

s in

202

5–20

30 a

nd to

67.

8 ye

ars

in20

45–2

050.

How

ever

, the

ave

rage

life

exp

ecta

ncy

in th

e re

gion

is s

till

pro

ject

ed to

be

low

er th

an th

e gl

obal

ave

rage

.

An

incr

ease

in th

e pr

opor

tion

of

the

urba

n po

pula

tion

is e

xpec

ted

from

36.

3 pe

rcen

t in

2010

to 4

3.2

perc

ent i

n 20

25 a

nd to

56.5

per

cent

in 2

050.

Nev

erth

eles

s, th

e pr

opor

tion

of

the

urba

n po

pula

tion

in th

e re

gion

is e

xpec

ted

to b

e su

bsta

ntia

lly

low

er th

anth

e w

orld

ave

rage

.

The

pro

port

ion

of e

mig

rant

s to

imm

igra

nts

is e

xpec

ted

to in

crea

se in

202

5–20

30 c

ompa

red

wit

h 20

10–2

015

and

then

dec

reas

e to

its

2010

–201

5 le

vel b

y 20

50.

T

he p

ropo

rtio

n of

the

popu

lati

on w

ith

at le

ast j

unio

r se

cond

ary

or h

ighe

r ed

ucat

ion

in s

ub-S

ahar

an A

fric

a is

pro

ject

ed to

incr

ease

,bu

t wil

l rem

ain

far

behi

nd th

at o

f th

e w

orld

and

sli

ghtly

bel

ow th

at o

f A

fric

a as

a w

hole

(47

per

cent

of

fem

ales

and

54

perc

ent o

fm

ales

by

2025

and

63

perc

ent o

f fe

mal

es a

nd 6

5 pe

rcen

t of

mal

es b

y 20

50).

T

he a

bove

dem

ogra

phic

cha

nges

are

not

exp

ecte

d to

be

unif

orm

am

ong

sub-

Sah

aran

Afr

ican

cou

ntri

es, a

nd th

us th

e tr

ends

expe

cted

for

the

indi

vidu

al s

elec

ted

coun

trie

s ar

e hi

ghli

ghte

d be

low

.C

han

ges

in G

DP

exp

ecte

d b

y 20

18

GD

P is

exp

ecte

d to

incr

ease

fro

m a

n an

nual

ave

rage

of

5 pe

rcen

t in

2013

to 5

.6 p

erce

nt in

201

8, w

hich

is h

ighe

r th

an th

e re

gion

’sG

DP

gro

wth

rat

e in

the

prev

ious

dec

ade

and

high

er th

an th

e w

orld

ave

rage

in 2

013–

2018

.

GD

P p

er c

apit

a is

exp

ecte

d to

gro

w a

t abo

ut 4

.8 p

erce

nt a

nnua

lly o

n av

erag

e in

201

3–20

18

30

Tab

le 2

8 (c

onti

nu

ed)

Are

aP

roje

cted

chan

ges

11 s

elec

ted

co

un

trie

s li

sted

in

des

cen

din

g or

der

of

GD

P

per

cap

ita:

Sou

th A

fric

a N

amib

ia

Gha

na

Nig

eria

S

eneg

al

Ken

ya

Côt

e d’

Ivoi

re

Uni

ted

Rep

ubli

c of

Tan

zani

a U

gand

a M

ozam

biqu

e M

adag

asca

r

Dem

ogra

ph

ic c

han

ges

exp

ecte

d b

y 20

50

T

here

wil

l be

an in

crea

se in

the

popu

lati

on b

y 20

50 in

all

cou

ntri

es.

P

opul

atio

n gr

owth

rat

es a

s w

ell a

s fe

rtil

ity

rate

s in

201

5–20

50 a

re e

xpec

ted

to b

e hi

gher

am

ong

coun

trie

s w

ith

rela

tive

lylo

wer

per

cap

ita

inco

me

and

to b

e lo

wer

in th

e co

untr

ies

wit

h re

lati

vely

hig

her

per

capi

ta in

com

e.

The

larg

est a

bsol

ute

incr

ease

in p

opul

atio

n by

257

mil

lion

by

2050

wil

l occ

ur in

Nig

eria

and

the

high

est r

elat

ive

incr

ease

inU

gand

a (1

59 p

erce

nt b

y 20

50).

N

iger

ia is

exp

ecte

d to

hav

e th

e hi

ghes

t fer

tili

ty r

ates

(3.

79 c

hild

ren

per

wom

an),

whi

le S

outh

Afr

ica

and

Nam

ibia

are

proj

ecte

d to

hav

e th

e lo

wes

t fer

tili

ty r

ates

(1.

87 a

nd 2

.03,

res

pect

ivel

y).

T

he p

ropo

rtio

n of

the

popu

lati

on o

ver

the

age

of 6

5 ye

ars

is p

roje

cted

to b

e hi

gher

in th

e co

untr

ies

wit

h re

lati

vely

hig

her

per

capi

ta in

com

e an

d to

be

low

er in

cou

ntri

es w

ith

rela

tive

ly lo

wer

per

cap

ita

inco

me.

S

outh

Afr

ica

and

Nam

ibia

are

exp

ecte

d to

hav

e th

e ol

dest

pop

ulat

ion

stru

ctur

e, w

hile

Nig

eria

and

Uga

nda

are

proj

ecte

d to

have

the

youn

gest

pop

ulat

ion

stru

ctur

e.

Sou

th A

fric

a w

ill c

onti

nue

to b

e th

e m

ost u

rban

ized

by

2050

(77

per

cent

).

Gha

na a

nd C

ôte

d’Iv

oire

are

als

o ex

pect

ed to

hav

e a

larg

e sh

are

of u

rban

pop

ulat

ion

(72

perc

ent e

ach)

, whi

le U

gand

a’s

shar

eof

urb

an p

opul

atio

n is

pro

ject

ed to

be

the

low

est (

37 p

erce

nt).

S

outh

Afr

ica,

Gha

na a

nd U

gand

a ar

e ex

pect

ed to

be

the

coun

trie

s w

ith

the

high

est p

ropo

rtio

n of

em

igra

nts,

alt

houg

h ne

tm

igra

tion

rat

es a

re p

roje

cted

to d

ecre

ase

by 2

050.

C

ôte

d’Iv

oire

is p

redi

cted

to b

e th

e on

ly c

ount

ry w

ith

a hi

gher

num

ber

of im

mig

rant

s th

an e

mig

rant

s, w

hile

Mad

agas

car

ispr

ojec

ted

to h

ave

a ne

t mig

rati

on r

ate

of z

ero

in 2

010–

2050

.

Ch

ange

s in

GD

P e

xpec

ted

by

2018

The

re w

ill b

e a

cont

inuo

us g

row

th in

GD

P a

nd G

DP

per

cap

ita

S

outh

Afr

ica

and

Nig

eria

wil

l con

tinu

e to

hav

e th

e hi

ghes

t GD

Ps

amon

g al

l sub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ican

cou

ntri

es.

S

outh

Afr

ica

is p

roje

cted

to h

ave

the

low

est G

DP

gro

wth

rat

e at

3.1

per

cent

, whi

ch is

bel

ow s

ub-S

ahar

an A

fric

an a

vera

gean

d th

e w

orld

.

Nig

eria

is e

xpec

ted

to g

row

at 6

.8 p

erce

nt y

earl

y on

ave

rage

, whi

ch is

hig

her

than

the

sub-

Sah

aran

Afr

ican

ave

rage

and

the

wor

ld a

vera

ge.

M

ozam

biqu

e is

pro

ject

ed to

hav

e th

e hi

ghes

t ave

rage

ann

ual G

DP

and

GD

P p

er c

apit

a gr

owth

rat

es, a

t 8 p

erce

nt a

nd5.

9 pe

rcen

t, re

spec

tive

ly. T

he c

ount

ry is

est

imat

ed to

be

amon

g th

e to

p 15

fas

test

-gro

win

g ec

onom

ies

in th

e w

orld

in 2

013–

2018

.

Sou

th A

fric

a is

est

imat

ed to

con

tinu

e ha

ving

the

high

est G

DP

per

cap

ita,

but

its

aver

age

GD

P p

er c

apit

a gr

owth

rat

e of

1.9

perc

ent i

s ex

pect

ed to

be

the

low

est a

mon

g th

e 11

sel

ecte

d co

untr

ies

and

subs

tant

iall

y lo

wer

that

the

regi

on’s

ave

rage

.

Nam

ibia

is p

roje

cted

to c

onti

nue

to h

ave

the

seco

nd-h

ighe

st G

DP

per

cap

ita

amon

g th

e 11

sel

ecte

d co

untr

ies.

31

With the population of sub-Saharan Africa expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 949 million in 2015 to reach 1.2 billion people by 2025, there will be about 282 million additional consumers in 2025, i.e. an increase of 26 percent, which will create a significant increase in food demand. In 2050, the population is forecast to reach almost 2.1 billion, an increase of 119 percent compared with 2013. The expected increase in population is not uniform across countries, with Madagascar (129 percent), Mozambique (121 percent), Nigeria (140 percent), Senegal (120 percent), Uganda (159 percent) and the United Republic of Tanzania (147 percent) all having population increases above the average. These population increases belong to the poorest countries of the region, with GDP per capita in 2012 varying between USD900 and 2 700.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where the proportion of people living in extreme poverty, on less than USD1.25 a day, has risen steadily, up from 290 million in 1990 to 414 million in 2010, accounting for more than one-third of the people worldwide who are destitute. About 223 million people in the region are estimated to have been undernourished in 2011–13. This represents about 25 percent of the entire population. Although the share of the population that is undernourished has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number increased from about 173.1 million in 1990–92 to 222.7 million in 2011–13 (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013).

In the period up to 2025, there will thus be about 280 additional consumers. In addition, there is the challenge of bringing an estimated 220 million people out of undernourishment. These trends will cause very considerable shifts in food demand, with food access presenting a growing challenge in the next two decades. Given the predicted parallel growth in incomes in the region and the consequent expected increase in per capita consumption, it is likely that food demand will increase beyond the level expected by population growth alone. In any case, food production systems including agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture will be placed under growing pressure in an already difficult setting of rising urbanization and environmental degradation.

The demographic changes discussed above, combined with the expected changes in income, will also cause shifts in the demand for food. Table 29 summarizes the main estimated changes in population and income and their impact on food demand.

Although sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain the region with the youngest population structure throughout the period, population ageing will probably shift food consumption towards healthier products by 2050 in certain countries. This trend would primarily affect countries with relatively higher incomes and a rapidly emerging middle class. These shifts in consumption are also expected in the other countries of the region, but to a smaller degree, primarily because of slower income growth and higher rates of poverty and undernourishment.

Older people of the future are expected to be in better health, which is supported by the projected gradual increase in life expectancy over the period. Increased life expectancy is likely to extend the employment period. In this case, according to Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014), a well-established employment incentive structure will be the main challenge for the poorest countries where old age support does not exist outside one’s own family.

The increased proportion of educated people will affect demand from different angles. First, improved productivity owing to better use of resources will increase disposable income. Second, it will have an impact over time by increasing the population’s awareness of the value of a nutritious and diversified diet. Finally, education will result in fewer children per family in all countries of the region, given that higher education has been shown to lead to a reduction in the number of children per family (Lutz and Samir, 2010), thereby reducing household demand for food and overall demand. However, despite substantial improvements in the overall level of education projected in sub-Saharan Africa, the progress would not be sufficient for a substantial economic advancement of the region. According to Lutz and Samir (2010), recent studies have shown that there are some thresholds both with respect to health and to economic growth, in the sense that universal primary education is not sufficient but that it requires high proportions of the population with at least completed junior secondary education (to age 15 years) to help bring countries out of the vicious circle of poverty, high population growth and

32

food insecurity. Thus, it can be predicted that sub-Saharan Africa will remain the most challenging development region for many decades to come (Lutz and Samir, 2010).

Table 29. Estimated changes in population and GDP in sub-Saharan Africa and their impact on food demand Change Expected impact on food demand Increasing population and number of undernourished people (282 million additional consumers by 2025)

Additional pressure on food production.

Increasing number of undernourished people (220 million of possibly undernourished people by 2025)

Additional pressure on food production.

Ageing population (3.3 percent of the population is expected to be over the age of 65 years by 2025)

Shift in food consumption towards healthier products, especially incountries with higher income and a rapidly emerging middle class.

Increase in overall demand for meat and fish protein in line withincreasing incomes and changing dietary preferences.

Decrease in consumption of starch-based foods.

Increased life expectancy (the average life expectancy is projected to increase from 56 years in 2013 to 61.4 years in 2025 )

Increased life expectancy will probably extend the employmentperiod, which in turn will stimulate GDP growth and increase foodpurchase ability.

Increased level of education (the average level of the population with at least a junior secondary or higher education is expected to increase)

Improved productivity in all sectors of the economy including thefood industry.

More conscious choice of healthier foods in the diet. Reduction in number of children per household.

Increased urbanization (43 percent of sub-Saharan African population is projected to live in urban areas by 2025)

Shift in consumption towards processed and ready-made foods. Higher food waste generation. Longer food supply chain.

Increase in disposable income (GDP and GDP per capita are expected to increase by 2025)

The increase in disposable income will translate into a shift in foodconsumption in all of the countries.

A greater shift in consumption is expected in the countries with highlevel of undernourishment. A proportionately higher increase in thelevels of animal protein consumption is expected in these countries,as consumers increasingly substitute cheaper sources of nutrientssuch as cereals, roots and tubers.

A shift in consumption towards healthier and more expensive foodproducts is predicted in richer countries of the region such as SouthAfrica and Namibia due to the influence of healthy eating trendsfrom developed countries.

About 43 percent of the sub-Saharan African population is projected to live in urban areas by 2025 and 57 percent by 2050. Increased urbanization will result in the physical expansion of cities, and some land that is used or can be used for agriculture may be lost in peri-urban areas that are gradually built upon. Taking into account that some of the land has already been lost through erosion, desertification and salinization, urbanization will put more pressure on food production. In addition, growing urbanization lengthens the food supply chain. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa face a paucity or even complete lack of infrastructure for food storage and supply, a critical problem that

33

many international cooperation programmes are trying to address, financed both by traditional donors and increasingly by emerging donors such as BRICS countries. Poor infrastructure leads to a substantial volume of food loss, but this is likely to decrease with improved roads and cold and dry storage facilities. Urban people in the countries of the region who cannot grow their own food or secure access to wild food will also suffer more from temporary spikes in food prices than will people in richer countries.

The increase in disposable income will translate into a shift in food consumption in all the countries of the region. Out of 49 countries of the region, only one country is classified as a high-income country, 7 as upper middle-income countries and 11 countries as lower middle-income countries. The remaining countries are low-income (Section 2). For low-income countries, the budget share of food, beverages and tobacco is 48.5 percent, while for middle-income countries it is 33.1 percent (Table 23). Thus, in low-income countries, people on average spend about half their income on food. As a large majority of the countries of the region are low-income countries, increases in income will be accompanied by almost proportional increases in food expenditure. Consequently, a greater shift in consumption is expected in the countries with high levels of undernourishment. In these countries, a proportionately higher increase in the levels of animal protein consumption is expected, as consumers increasingly substitute cheaper sources of nutrients such as cereals, roots and tubers. Nonetheless, significant portions of the population in Africa will remain undernourished in 2050.

34

4. FOOD SUPPLY

This section analyses the current and future supply of food in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania.

First, the fisheries and aquaculture sectors (Section 4.1) and then the agriculture sector (Section 4.2) in the region are examined. Information is also provided about trade for both sectors. Environmental concerns – especially poor water management, soil erosion, declining soil fertility and land degradation – will also be significant determinants of future food supply. Although not the focus of this publication, it is important to keep in mind that climate change could undermine the resource base and contribute to declining food yields.

4.1 Fisheries and aquaculture

This section examines capture fisheries and aquaculture production by country. Where available for capture fisheries, catch data are presented from 1950 to the present.

In terms of fisheries regulation in the region, extended fisheries jurisdiction was introduced in the late 1970s – early 1980s, having an impact on both coastal States and distant-water fishing States (Bjørndal and Munro, 2012). Fishing agreements, e.g. between the European Union (Member Organization) and African states, have permitted fishing vessels from the former to harvest in the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of some countries. Despite regulations, many fish stocks are currently overexploited (FAO, 2012b).

This section is mainly based on FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Country Profiles, unless stated otherwise. All quantity, value and price data presented in are from FishStatJ, unless indicated. The latest available production statistics are dated 2011, while those for trade are dated 2009.

4.1.1 Côte d’Ivoire

The total production of fish from capture fisheries and aquaculture was 75 000 tonnes in 2011, the smallest production volume among the 11 countries selected for the analysis. In 2011, marine and inland capture supplied an estimated 95 percent of total fish production in the country, and aquaculture the remaining 5 percent.

Côte d’Ivoire has extensive resources for the development of fisheries and aquaculture. The country’s coastline is 550 km and its continental shelf 11 000 km2. Côte d’Ivoire has 3 lagoons (Ebrié, Aby and Tadjo) covering 1 500 km2, 4 large artificial lakes (Ayamé, Kossou, Buyo and Taabo) and 1 700 km2 of rivers and streams.

Figure 1 describes capture fisheries production in Côte d’Ivoire from 1960 to 2011. The production of capture fisheries increased from 40 500 tonnes in 1960 to a peak of 103 000 tonnes in 1986. Owing to the economic crisis in the 1980s, which led to a period of political and social turmoil, as well as due to the civil war in 2002, production declined gradually to 42 700 tonnes in 2005. It subsequently recovered to 71 700 tonnes in 2011. However, there were significant fluctuations in production throughout the period in question.

35

Figure 1. Capture production in Côte d’Ivoire, 1960–2011

Source: FAO (2013c).

Data describing aquaculture production are not available before 1984. Thus, Figure 2 describes aquaculture production in the period 1984–2011. Aquaculture production increased gradually from 21 tonnes in 1984 to 386 tonnes in 1995. Since 1986, production has accelerated, reaching 1 700 tonnes in 2010 and almost doubling within one year to 3 400 tonnes in 2011. The total value of aquaculture production stood at USD11.1 million in 2011.

Figure 2. Aquaculture production in Côte d’Ivoire, 1984–2011


Aquaculture is undertaken in both inland and coastal lagoons. Inland aquaculture is still essentially a secondary rural occupation, generally practised on small farms in small freshwater ponds. However, there is also a variety of farms that practise aquaculture, ranging from subsistence to large-scale commercial farms. Lagoon aquaculture has been practised since the 1980s in brackish water or freshwater (FAO national aquaculture sector overview).

The total value of fish exports was USD170.3 million in 2009, and that of imports was USD340.5 million, double that of exports. This is due to the fact that import volumes were seven times as large as export volumes (388 000 tonnes vs 54 500 tonnes). Although export commodities, in

36

particular tuna, are higher-valued products than imports such as sardines, the import value of sardines alone amounted to USD73.7 million in 2009.

4.1.2 Ghana

The total volume of fish production in Ghana from both capture fisheries and aquaculture was 352 600 tonnes in 2011. Capture fisheries accounted for 95 percent of the total, while aquaculture contributed only 5 percent.

Ghana’s coastline is 528 km long and its continental shelf has an area of 23 700 km2. Lake Volta is the most important inland fishery. Other lake fisheries include Bosomtwi, Weija, Barekese, Tano, Vea and Kpong. There are also a number of lagoons, the most important of which is the Keta lagoon.

Figure 3.3 presents capture production in Ghana in 1960 to 2011. Capture production in Ghana increased steadily from 34 000 tonnes in 1960 to 99 000 tonnes in 1967. Production subsequently declined to 74 000 tonnes in 1968 and then it began growing rapidly, reaching 493 000 tonnes in 1999. Subsequently, production declined after 1999 and reached 334 000 tonnes in 2011.

Figure 3. Capture production in Ghana, 1960–2011


The marine capture subsector is by far the most important source of local fish production, delivering more than 73 percent of capture production and 69 percent of the total fish supply. The marine fishing industry in Ghana consists of three subsectors: small-scale, (or artisanal on canoe); semi-industrial (or inshore); and industrial. For small-scale fishing, most of the canoes have 40 hp outboard engines; smaller craft use sails. Purse seiners, beach seiners, drift gillnets and hook and line are commonly used types of fishing gear. There are also motorized canoes, which specialize in hook and line with some using electronic fish-finding devices such as echo sounders. The semi-industrial fleet is represented by locally built wooden vessels (8–37 m). Most vessels are dual purpose and can be used for both trawls and purse seiners. Industrial vessels are large, steel-hulled foreign-built trawlers, shrimpers, tuna pole and line vessels and purse seiners.

Development of aquaculture in Ghana started in 1953, when the first fish ponds were built by the former Department of Fisheries in the north of Ghana.

Figure 4 describes aquaculture production in Ghana in 1966–2011. Aquaculture production increased steadily from just 4 tonnes in 1966 to 400 tonnes in 1997. A period of rapid growth began in 1998 when production grew from 1 800 tonnes to 6 000 tonnes in 2002. This is attributable to some extent

37

to the tremendous improvement in the technology of fingerling production around that period. Subsequently, production dropped abruptly to 983 tonnes in 2003 and then accelerated again, reaching 5 600 tonnes in 2008, and 19 091 tonnes in 2011, with a value of USD50.5 million.

Figure 4. Aquaculture production in Ghana, 1966–2011

Source: FAO (2013b) Small-scale subsistence farmers practising extensive aquaculture in earthen ponds are still the norm in Ghanaian aquaculture, as opposed to commercial farmers using more intensive practices.

The total value of fish exports in Ghana stood at USD53 923 million in 2009 and the total value of fish imports amounted to USD121.4 million in the same year. Thus, Ghana is a net importer of fish.

4.1.3 Kenya

The total volume of fish production in Kenya stood at 203 700 tonnes in 2011, of which capture fisheries accounted for 89 percent and aquaculture 11 percent.

Kenya’s coastline in the Indian Ocean is 640 km and its continental shelf area is 6 500 km2. The country’s EEZ has an area of 142 400 km2. The inland water area of the country, the sum of the surfaces of all inland waterbodies, such as lakes, reservoirs or rivers, as delimited by international boundaries and/or coastlines, ranges from 10 500 to 11 500 km2 depending on rainfall.

The largest and most economically significant lake for national fisheries is Lake Victoria, whose 68 000 km2 area is shared between Uganda (45 percent), the United Republic of Tanzania (49 percent) and Kenya (6 percent). Lake Victoria’s water resources are managed by the East African Community (EAC) and the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC). Other freshwater bodies of commercial importance include lakes such as Turkana (Kenya’s largest freshwater body), Naivasha, Baringo, Jipe and the Tana River dams. The major rivers include Tana, Nzoia, Kuja, Yala and Athi/Sabaki.

Figure 5 describes capture production in Kenya in the period from 1960 to 2011. The production of capture fisheries increased steadily from 12 600 tonnes in 1960 to 51 600 tonnes in 1979. From 1980, production increased, reaching 215 300 tonnes in 2000. The introduction of Nile perch and Nile tilapia in the 1980s and early 1990s and their increased production contributed to this increase (Bjørndal, Child and Lem, 2014). Thereafter, production declined to 120 300 tonnes in 2003 before recovering to 181 600 tonnes in 2011.

38

Figure 5. Capture production in Kenya, 1960–2011


Inland capture fisheries, mainly from Lake Victoria, are the main fisheries subsector, accounting for 96 percent (174 300 tonnes) of total capture production in 2011. Marine fisheries accounted for only 4 percent of capture production. Most marine fishing in Kenya is small-scale, with some industrial fishing conducted by prawn trawlers. The deep-sea fishery resources are currently exploited by distant-water fishing nations through a licensing system. In marine fisheries, small-scale fishers mostly operate simple fishing craft with limited access to offshore and deep-sea fisheries, and therefore often land very little catch. Only a small quantity of catch from the EEZ is landed in Kenya, primarily tuna loins for processing for export.

Aquaculture production began quite small but grew steadily from 380 tonnes in 1960 to 1 047 tonnes in 2005 (Figure 6). Production then accelerated reaching 4 895 tonnes in 2009 and 22 135 tonnes in 2011 (352 percent compared with 2009 production levels). This increase in production in 2009 was mainly owing to the introduction of the Economic Stimulus Programme (ESP), which was launched by the Government in the financial year 2009/10. Under the ESP, 1 586 new fish ponds, covering 47 ha, were constructed throughout the country. By the end of 2009, the number of ponds in the country had increased from 7 530 in 2008 to 9 116. There were also 331 dams with an area of 547 ha, and 161 tanks/races with an area of 2 ha. This translates to 823 ha of surface area used in 2009 in aquaculture fish production compared with 728 ha in 2008 (Bjørndal, Child and Lem, 2014).

39

Figure 6. Aquaculture production in Kenya, 1960–2011


Kenya is a net exporter in terms of trade value. The value of Kenya’s total fish exports stood at USD57.3 million in 2009, and imports at USD10 million in the same year. Kenya’s imports volume, however, exceeds that of exports, 21 500 tonnes for imports and 16 600 tonnes, for exports in 2009. That suggests that the share of high-valued species in exports is higher than that in imports.

4.1.4 Madagascar

Total fish production in Madagascar amounted to 137 600 tonnes in 2011. Capture fisheries represented 92 percent of total fish production, while aquaculture represented 8 percent.

Madagascar lies in the tropical Western Indian Ocean, surrounded by waters of the Southern Equatorial Current and forming part of the Agulhas Large Marine Ecosystem. Madagascar’s coastline is about 5 600 km, east and west coasts, and its continental shelf has a surface area of 177 000 km2.

Capture fisheries production in Madagascar has increased more than fourfold since 1960, from 29 500 tonnes to 127 000 tonnes in 2011 (Figure 7). The general upward trend is sporadically interrupted by short periods of decline, as well as a rather long period of stagnation beginning in 1975, coinciding with the election of Mr Didier Ratsiraka as President, who adopted a socialist-Marxist style government.

40

Figure 7. Capture production in Madagascar, 1960–2011


Marine capture fisheries amounted to 96 200 tonnes, or 76 percent of total capture production. The rest was accounted for by inland fisheries. Marine capture fisheries consist mainly of industrial fishing, semi-industrial fishing and small-scale fishing. Small-scale fishing is mainly conducted on the island’s west coast using smaller artisanal craft such as dugout canoes with oars and sails.

The total volume of aquaculture production in 2011 was 10 500 tonnes (Figure 8), which yielded a total farmgate value4 of USD52.1 million. Aquaculture production started to rise after 1991, reaching 8 500 tonnes in 1997, which coincides with the introduction of privatization and liberalization measures by the World Bank and IMF. Production subsequently declined roughly by half to 4 500 tonnes in 1998 and then recovered to 16 500 tonnes in 2006. After 2006, production declined by 41 percent to 9 700 tonnes in 2009, and then increased slightly in 2011 to 10 500 tonnes.

4 The farmgate value is the net value of the product when it leaves the farm, after marketing costs have been deducted. As many farms do not have significant marketing costs, it is often understood as the price of the product at which it is sold by the farm. Typically, this product price is lower than the retail price.

41

Figure 8. Aquaculture production in Madagascar, 1976–2011


Aquaculture is practised in freshwater, brackish water, and marine water. Freshwater aquaculture is mainly conducted in ponds and irrigated paddy fields. In brackish and marine water, shrimp culture has increased rapidly in the past 16 years, and this trend is expected to continue in the medium term.

The total value of fish exports from Madagascar was USD116.8 million in 2009, and that of imports was USD19 million. Import value is only about one sixth of export value, demonstrating that Madagascar is a strong net exporter of fish. However, the total volume of fish imports was 15 300 tonnes in that same year, which is only about 5 000 tonnes less than that of exports (exports in 2009 amounted to 20 000 tonnes). The prices for the major imported commodities are much lower than those for exported ones. Thus, Madagascar exports high-value products and imports low-value ones.

4.1.5 Mozambique

Total fish production in Mozambique was 189 800 tonnes in 2011, with aquaculture representing just 0.4 percent of total fish production.

Mozambique’s coastline is estimated at 2 700 km and its inland water area at 13 000 km2. Mozambique has extensive inland water resources, which include Lake Niassa/Malawi, the third-largest in Africa and third-deepest worldwide, the artificial Lake Cahora Bassa, as well as many rivers.

Figure 9 describes capture production in Mozambique in the period 1960–2011. Capture production increased steadily from 13 400 tonnes in 1960 to 42 400 tonnes in 1986 and then decreased to 38 000 tonnes in 2002. After 2002, production accelerated and reached 189 000 tonnes in 2011.

42

Figure 9. Capture production in Mozambique, 1960–2011


Marine capture fisheries accounted for 62 percent of total capture fisheries production (116 400 tonnes) in 2011, and inland fisheries 38 percent. Small-scale fishing is the predominant form of fishing in marine fisheries.

Mozambique’s aquaculture sector is relatively young. Freshwater aquaculture began in the 1950s at the small-scale level, while marine aquaculture began at the large-scale more industrial level. Figure 10 presents aquaculture production in Mozambique in the period from 1986 to 2011. Production grew from zero in 2001 to 5 600 tonnes in 2003. The establishment of a Mozambican–Chinese joint venture in Sofala Province (central region of Mozambique) for shrimp farming in 2000 contributed to this rise. Production decreased sharply to 1 300 tonnes in 2004; subsequently, there was a negative trend, reaching 796 tonnes in 2011.

43

Figure 10. Aquaculture production in Mozambique, 1986–2011


In Mozambique, both marine and freshwater aquaculture has been developed. Marine aquaculture represented 64 percent of total aquaculture production in 2011, while freshwater accounted for 36 percent.

The total value of Mozambique’s fish exports was USD66.6 million in 2011 while that of imports was USD39.8 million in the same year. Owing to the sizeable exports of high-value species such as prawns, Mozambique is a net exporter. In 2009, the total quantity of exported fish commodities was 9 900 tonnes, while the total volume of imported commodities was 18 700 tonnes, which is 47 percent more. Thus, Mozambique also exports high-value products and imports low-value products.

4.1.6 Namibia

The total volume of fish production in Namibia was 414 500 tonnes in 2011. Almost all fish production is derived from capture fisheries (99.8 percent of the total), demonstrating that the contribution from aquaculture is very modest.

Namibia’s coastline is 1 572 km long and its inland water area is 5 000 km2. Based on the Benguela Current System, the fishing grounds of Namibia are among the most productive in the world, supporting extremely diverse populations of fish. Namibia’s EEZ contains about 20 different species, with 8 regulated through total allowable catch quotas.

Figure 11 presents the evolution in capture fisheries production from 1966 to 2011. Capture fisheries production increased gradually from 5 000 tonnes in 1966 to 14 900 tonnes in 1968. Thereafter, production increased slowly but steadily to 33 400 tonnes in 1988, but it abruptly decreased to 21 200 tonnes in 1988. After 1988, production rose rapidly and reached its peak of 790 600 tonnes in 1993, only to subsequently begin an uneven decline to 370 000 tonnes in 2009 and recovering to 414 000 tonnes in 2011. The declining catches can be attributed in part to the reduction in the pilchard population during the 1990s due to the unfavourable environmental conditions between 1993 and 1995 (the so-called “Benguela-Niño”) and the negative effects of overfishing in the period before independence in 1990.

44

Figure 11. Capture production in Namibia, 1966–2011


Namibia’s marine capture fisheries sector is predominantly large-scale. Mid-water trawlers catch horse mackerel, while purse seiners target pilchard, juvenile horse mackerel and anchovy. The demersal fishery targets mainly hake in deep water and monkfish, sole, snoek and kingklip inshore. Inland fisheries in Namibia do not play an important role in fish production as there are no significant lakes in the country. However, some rivers on the border with Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana in the Caprivi and Okavango region, are used for limited fishing activities.

Figure 12 describes aquaculture production in Namibia in the period from 1990 to 2011. Data for aquaculture production are available since 1990, when it amounted to 20 tonnes. Production continued to grow until 2010, when it peaked at 675 tonnes and then dropped to 564 tonnes in 2011.

Figure 12. Aquaculture production in Namibia, 1990–2011


45

Namibia is a net exporter. The country’s fish exports were valued at USD575 million in 2009, which is almost 15 times greater than its imports in that same year (USD39.2 million). Species such as cape hake and mackerels contributed significantly to the total value of exports.

4.1.7 Nigeria

The total volume of fish production in Nigeria was 635 000 tonnes in 2011, out of which capture fisheries accounted for 74 percent and aquaculture 26 percent.

The Nigerian fishery sector benefits from rich water resources that provide a basis for the long-established large- and small-scale capture fisheries, as well as the more recent aquaculture industry, which is growing rapidly in content and output. Nigeria’s coastline is 853 km and its continental shelf area is 42 000 km2. Its total water area is estimated at 140 000 km2. The water resources include offshore waters in the 200 mile EEZ. A nationwide network of rivers, floodplains, lakes, reservoirs and ponds covers 14 million hectares of inland waters. The Rivers Niger and Benue, including their tributaries, are major sources of inland fisheries. There are also numerous natural and artificial lakes and reservoirs, such as Lakes Chad, Shiroro, Oguta, Goronyo, Bakolori, Tiga and Asejire. There are a number of reservoirs, purpose-built ponds, mining paddocks and animal watering lots.

For capture fisheries, production increased gradually from 57 000 tonnes in 1960 to 115 000 tonnes in 1968–69. It subsequently more than doubled to 241 000 tonnes in 1971, a 115 percent increase compared with the 1969 level. Thereafter, production grew more slowly and reached 349 000 tonnes in 1995. It then began to increase rapidly and reached 635 000 tonnes in 2011 (Figure 13).

Figure 13. Capture production in Nigeria, 1960–2011

Source: FAO (2013c). Marine capture fisheries amounted to 53 percent of total capture production in 2011, while inland capture fisheries amounted to 47 percent. Fishing in the inland waters of Nigeria is predominantly small-scale with gillnets, cast nets, longlines, lift nets, beach seines, drift nets and assorted traps employed. Craft used include dugout canoes, planked canoes, and, on the reservoirs, gourds (as a floating device) are common. Outboard engines are rarely used for fishing. The biological resources of Nigeria’s offshore waters between the continental shelf area and the EEZ limit have not been effectively used owing to the lack of the necessary technology. For example, tuna and other fish attain prime size within Nigeria’s EEZ but are instead caught in the waters of neighbouring countries that have the requisite technology and investments.

46

Aquaculture production in Nigeria grew steadily from 2 000 tonnes in 1960 to 10 600 tonnes in 1988. Production then increased further to 25 800 tonnes in 1989 and abruptly decreased to 7 300 tonnes in 1990. In the 1990s, federal, state and local government invested in more than 50 fish farm facilities, which together with the private farms were responsible for about 20 000–25 000 tonnes of fish supplies (5–6 percent of total fish production). Subsequently, production began growing gradually and reached 56 300 tonnes in 2005 and then increased to 221 000 tonnes in 2011, accounting for 26 percent of domestic production (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Aquaculture production in Nigeria, 1960–2011


Nigeria’s aquaculture is predominantly freshwater. Production systems include subsistence and homestead ponds, integrated farms with rice, poultry and pigs, with enhanced yields depending on the extent of integration, and commercial farms with outputs and intensive recirculation systems.

In 2009, the total value of Nigeria’s fish exports was USD100.7 million (total volume 25 700 tonnes). The value of total imports stood at USD871 million (total volume 1.2 million tonnes in 2009. Although a net importer, Nigeria imports lower-value products and exports higher-value ones.

4.1.8 Senegal

Total fish production in Senegal was 427 500 tonnes in 2011. Capture fisheries accounted for almost all the production while aquaculture accounted for 0.08 percent of total production.

The coastline of Senegal is 531 km long and its continental shelf area is 198 000 km2. Continental resources include the Rivers Casamance and Sine-Saloum, which run almost exclusively in Senegal. Subregional systems are mainly constituted by the River Senegal and the River Gambia. Two major dams were built on the River Senegal, namely the Diama and Manatali dams. Continental water resources also include Lake de Guiers and Lake Retba.

Figure 3.15 describes the production of capture fisheries in Senegal in the period from 1960 to 2011. The production of capture fisheries increased steadily from 76 000 tonnes in 1960 to 384 000 tonnes in 1993. Production declined slightly to 358 000 tonnes in 1994 and then accelerated, reaching 482 000 tonnes in 1997, a 35 percent increase compared with the 1994 level. This increase coincides with the initiation of an economic reform programme backed by donors, which began in 1994. After 1997, the general downward trend is punctuated by brief periods of growth in production, which reached 427 000 tonnes in 2011.

47

Figure 15. Capture production in Senegal, 1960–2011

Source: FAO (2013c). Marine fisheries accounted for 92 percent of total capture production in 2011 with inland fisheries representing 8 percent.

Senegal is a net exporter. The value of total exports stood at USD242.4 million in 2009 for a trade volume of almost 102 000 tonnes. The total value of fish imports amounted to USD1.2 million for a total volume of 422 tonnes in 2009.

4.1.9 South Africa

The total volume of fish production in South Africa was 545 300 tonnes in 2011, of which capture fisheries accounted for almost 99 percent of production and aquaculture for about 1 percent.

The coastline of South Africa is 3 623 km long and its continental shelf area is 275 000 km2. The area of its EEZ is 1 071 883 km2.

The production of capture fisheries in South Africa increased considerably from 879 000 tonnes in 1960 to 2.1 million tonnes in 1968, a 143 percent increase (Figure 3.16). Production decreased to 1.1 million tonnes in 1972 and then bounced back to 1.5 million tonnes in 1974. Thereafter production exhibited a downward trend to 843 000 tonnes in 1986, which was then followed by a sudden increase in 1987 and decrease in 1996. After 1996, production recovered to 911 000 tonnes in 2004 and then displayed a general downward trend reaching 539 000 tonnes in 2011.

48

Figure 16. Capture production in South Africa, 1960–2011


In South Africa, the marine sector is predominant in capture fisheries. There are no inland commercial fisheries of economic significance in the country. Owing to a variety of ecosystems and an irregular coastline, marine fisheries are diversified both with respect to the species caught and the gear deployed.

The hake trawl fishery consists of larges trawlers ranging from 23 to 90 m in length that operate in the deep-sea sector, as well as smaller trawlers operating in the inshore sector. There is also a small mid-water trawl fishery, which operates within the demersal sector and exclusively targets adult horse mackerel, which are also caught by the inshore and deep-sea trawl fisheries. The small pelagic (purse seine) fleet is represented by small wooden vessels and larger steel-hulled vessels ranging in length from 11 to 48 m. The purse seine fishing method targets small mid-water and surface-shoaling species. The near-shore fisheries are large in number and diversity. They include large decked boats used in the squid fishery and commercial boats in the handline fishery. Subsistence and small-scale fisheries are located in rural areas, including the Transkei and Kwazulu-Natal coastlines, where activities such as oyster and mussel picking are common.

South Africa is a net fish trade exporter. The value of South African fish exports stood at USD443 million in 2009, almost 70 percent more than the value of the country’s imports (USD263 million). The country exports a wide variety of high-value species.

4.1.10 Uganda

The total value of fish production amounted to 523 000 tonnes in 2011. Capture fisheries in Uganda are entirely freshwater and represented 84 percent of total fish production, while aquaculture represented 16 percent.

Uganda is a landlocked country, which is rich in natural water bodies. The total water area is 49 938 km2 (CIA, 2014). The largest and the most economically significant lake for national fisheries is Lake Victoria. However, other large lakes, rivers and a great variety of swamps and streams contribute substantially to the annual national catch. Among them are lakes George, Edward, Albert and Kyoga and the River Nile.

Figure 17 describes the production of capture fisheries in Uganda. Production increased steadily from 62 000 tonnes in 1960 to 224 000 tonnes in 1978. It then decreased in 1985 and recovered to 265 000 tonnes in 1992. Thereafter, production decreased in 1996 and recovered to 218 000 tonnes

49

in 1997. Subsequently, production stabilized until 2002 and then accelerated, reaching its peak of 437 000 tonnes in 2011.

Figure 17. Capture production in Uganda, 1960–2011


Small-scale fishers utilize various gear types, including gillnets, longlines, beach seines and mosquito nets. Dugouts, the traditional type of fishing craft, have been largely replaced by plank or fibreglass canoes. Customary capture methods such as baskets, traps and hook-and-line continue to be widely employed, largely for subsistence purposes.

The Government of Uganda’s strategic intervention and the support from development partners such as FAO in recent decades have facilitated aquaculture development in Uganda. Figure 18 presents aquaculture production in Uganda in the period from 1984 to 2011. Aquaculture production increased steadily from 31 tonnes to 5 500 tonnes in 2005. Production then accelerated dramatically reaching its peak of 95 000 tonnes in 2010, before decreasing slightly to 85 700 tonnes in 2011.

Figure 18. Aquaculture production in Uganda, 1984–2011


50

Freshwater fish farming in Uganda had been pond-and subsistence-based until 2006. Cage culture is a relatively new activity in Uganda, which commenced in early 2006 encouraged by the government as a development priority.

Uganda is a net exporter in terms of fish trade. The total value of fish exports stood at USD114.4 million in 2009 for a total volume of 24 000 tonnes, while the total value of fish imports was negligible, amounting to USD874 000 for a total volume of 623 tonnes.

4.1.11 United Republic of Tanzania

The total volume of fish production in the United Republic of Tanzania was 344 000 tonnes in 2011. Capture fisheries accounted for almost all production (98 percent), while aquaculture amounted to only 2 percent.

The United Republic of Tanzania’s coastline is 1 424 km long and its total water area is 61 500 km2

(CIA, 2014). The main fishing resources of the country include its major lakes (Victoria, Tanganyika and Nyasa), marine territorial waters and marine EEZ. In addition, there are artificial dams with significant fisheries, mainly tilapia and catfish species. The major rivers are the Pangani, Wami, Ruvu, Rufiji and Ruvuma, all emptying into the Indian Ocean.

Figure 3.17 presents the evolution in capture fisheries production from 1960 to 2011. Production grew from 70 800 tonnes in 1960 to 272 500 tonnes in 1977. Production then fell to 183 000 tonnes in 1979 and thereafter began increasing, reaching 417 000 tonnes in 1990. Production then dropped again in 1994 and climbed to its peak of 426 000 tonnes in 2007. Subsequently production dropped in 2008 and then recovered to 343 000 in 2011.

Figure 19. Capture production in the United Republic of Tanzania, 1960–2011


Inland capture fisheries are the predominant production sector and represent 85 percent of total volume of catches, while production from the marine sector amounts to 15 percent. Inland fisheries are all small-scale, carried out in major and minor lakes, dams and rivers.

The marine subsector is divided into small-scale and large-scale fisheries. Small-scale fisheries take place within the territorial waters (within 12 nautical miles of the coat) and their catch consists mostly of finfish and, to a small extent, shrimp. Small-scale fishers usually use traditional craft and fishing methods. The marine large-scale subsector targets both coastal waters and beyond in the EEZ. This

51

fishery is mainly conducted by licensed foreign vessels (purse seiners and longliners) flying the flags of major fishing countries.

The United Republic of Tanzania is a net exporter of fish. The value of its fish exports was USD148 million for a volume of 52 900 tonnes in 2009, while the value of imports was USD4 million for a volume of 6 300 tonnes. Overall, it appears that low-valued products are imported.

4.1.12 Summary

Table 30 summarizes information about capture and aquaculture production in 2011, outlines the main species targeted and farmed in each country and highlights production trends in recent years. Table 31 presents a summary of exports and imports.

Table 30. Capture and aquaculture production in the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2011

Production 2011 Country Capture

marine (1 000 tonnes)

Capture inland (1

000 tonnes)

Aquaculture (1 000 tonnes)

Main species produced Main fishery andaquaculture

trends

Côte d’Ivoire

65.3 6.4 3.4 Capture: 64 percent of production is unclassified.1 Classified species include: round sardinella, skipjack tuna, bigeye grunt, little tunny, white grouper, Atlantic bonito and largehead hairtail. Aquaculture: Nile tilapia and African bonytongue.

Both capture and aquaculture production have been increasing since 2009.

Ghana

90 243.5 19.1 Capture: European anchovy, skipjack tuna, round sardinella and chub mackerel. Aquaculture: Nile tilapia,

Since 2004, capture production has decreased while aquaculture production has increased.

Kenya

174.3 7.2 22.1 Capture: silver cyprinid, Nile perch and Nile tilapia. Aquaculture: Nile tilapia and North African catfish.

Capture production has been increasing since 2009. Aquaculture production has been increasing since 2006.

52

Table 30 (continued)

Madagascar

96.2 30.4 10.5 Capture: 55 percent of production is unclassified. Classified species include: cichlids, sharks, rays and skates, natantian decapods, cyprinids and tunas. Aquaculture: giant tiger prawn, common carp and eucheuma seaweeds.

Capture production has declined since 2007. Aquaculture production has declined since 2006.

Mozambique

116.5 72.5 0.798 Capture: 83 percent of production is unclassified. Classified species include: shrimp, cephalopods and marine crab. Aquaculture: giant tiger prawn and tilapias.

Capture production has been increasing since 2007. Since 2009, aquaculture production has levelled off.

Namibia

411 3 56.4 Capture: horse mackerel and cape hakes. Aquaculture: Pacific cupped oyster, three-spotted tilapia, Nile tilapia.

Capture production has levelled off since 2008. Aquaculture production has been decreasing since 2010.

Nigeria

334 301 221 Capture: sardinellas, bonga shad, giant African thread, sea catfishes and barracudas. Aquaculture: North African catfish, Nile perch, Nile tilapia and reticulate knife fish.

Capture production has been increasing since 2009. Aquaculture production has been increasing since 2007.

Senegal

393.7 33.4 33.5 Capture: round sardinella, Madeiran sardinella, bonga shad and sea catfish.

Capture production has been increasing since 2006.

South Africa

504.2 34.6 6.4 Capture: Cape hake, Southern African anchovy and South African pilchard. Aquaculture: not applicable.

Capture production has been decreasing since 2007. Aquaculture production has been decreasing since 2006, but recovered in 2011.

53

Table 30 (continued)

Uganda

437.4 Notapplicable

85.7 Capture: Nile perch, nurse tetra, cyprinids, silver cyprinid and tilapia. Aquaculture: North African catfish and Nile tilapia.

Capture production has levelled off since 2008. Aquaculture production has increased significantly since 2004, but dropped slightly in 2010.


50.9 292.7 7.2 Capture: Nile perch, silver cyprinid and tilapia. Aquaculture: not applicable

Capture production has been increasing since 2008.

1 Production volume, which is not categorized by species.

Table 31 gives information about exports and imports. Export/import products come in different forms: prepared, preserved, smoked, dried, chilled, frozen and not frozen. Products are listed in descending order according to their contribution to the total value of imports/exports. For some countries, the largest share of either imports or exports is represented by “unclassified fish” without further specification. Also, some entries are given as “tunas”, “mackerels”, etc. without any further specification.

Of the countries under consideration (Table 31), Nigeria is the largest net importer of fish and fish products, valued at USD770.4 million. Côte d’Ivoire (USD194.3 million) and Ghana (USD67.6 million) are also net importers. The other countries are all net exporters, with Namibia the largest exporting country by value (USD535.8 million).

54

Tab

le 3

1. E

xpor

ts a

nd

imp

orts

of

fish

an

d f

ish

pro

du

cts

and

mai

n t

rad

ing

part

ner

s fo

r th

e 11

sel

ecte

d c

oun

trie

s of

su

b-S

ahar

an A

fric

a, 2

009

Cou

ntr

y E

xpor

t va

lue

2009

(m

illio

n

US

D)

Exp

ort

qu

anti

ty

2009

(1

000

to

nn

es)

Mai

n e

xpor

t pr

odu

cts

in t

erm

s of

val

ue

Imp

ort

valu

e 20

09

(mill

ion

U

SD

)

Imp

ort

qu

anti

ty

2009

(1

000

to

nnes

)

Mai

n im

por

t p

rod

uct

s in

ter

ms

of v

alu

e N

et

exp

orts

20

09

(mil

lion

U

SD

)

Côt

e d’

Ivoi

re

170.

3 52

.5

Tun

as (

prep

ared

or

pres

erve

d, n

ot

min

ced)

, sk

ipja

ck tu

na (

froz

en),

ye

llow

fin

tuna

(fr

ozen

),

mis

cella

neou

s cr

usta

cean

s (n

ot

froz

en)

364.

6 38

8.1

Unc

lass

ifie

d fi

sh (

froz

en),

sar

dine

s, s

ardi

nell

as,

bris

ling

or

spra

ts (

froz

en),

ski

pjac

k tu

na

(fro

zen)

, Atla

ntic

mac

kere

l (fr

ozen

), y

ello

wfi

n tu

na (

froz

en)

–194

.3

Gha

na

53.9

19

.4

Yel

low

fin

tuna

(fr

ozen

),

uncl

assi

fied

fis

h (f

roze

n), t

unas

(f

roze

n), m

acke

rels

(fr

ozen

)

121.

4 25

6.7

Mac

kere

ls (

froz

en),

unc

lass

ifie

d fi

sh (

froz

en),

sa

rdin

es, s

ardi

nell

as, b

risl

ing

or s

prat

s (f

roze

n),

sard

ines

, sar

dine

llas

, bri

slin

g or

spr

ats

(pre

pare

d

or p

rese

rved

, not

min

ced)

, mac

kere

l (pr

epar

ed o

r pr

eser

ved,

not

min

ced)

–67.

5

Ken

ya

57.4

16

.6

Fis

h m

eat (

whe

ther

or

not m

ince

d,

froz

en),

Nile

per

ch f

ille

ts (

froz

en),

tu

nas

(pre

pare

d or

pre

serv

ed, n

ot

min

ced)

, fis

h fi

llet

s (f

resh

or

chil

led)

10.0

21

.5

Tun

a (f

roze

n), f

ish

(was

te),

mac

kere

ls (

froz

en)

47.4

Mad

agas

car

116.

9 20

.0

Shr

imp

and

praw

ns (

froz

en),

tuna

s (p

repa

red

or p

rese

rved

, not

m

ince

d), c

rabs

(fr

ozen

), o

ctop

us

(oth

er th

an li

ve, f

resh

or

chill

ed)

19.1

15

.3

Ski

pjac

k tu

na (

froz

en),

yel

low

fin

tuna

(fr

ozen

),

tuna

s (f

roze

n)

97.8

Moz

ambi

que

66.6

9.

9 S

hrim

p an

d pr

awns

(fr

ozen

) 39

.8

18.8

U

ncla

ssif

ied

fish

(fr

ozen

), s

ardi

nes,

sar

dine

llas

, br

isli

ng o

r sp

rats

, (pr

epar

ed o

r pr

eser

ved,

not

m

ince

d), t

unas

(pr

epar

ed o

r pr

eser

ved,

not

m

ince

d)

26.8

Nam

ibia

57

5 36

0.4

Cap

e ha

ke (

froz

en),

cap

e ha

ke

fille

ts (

froz

en),

mac

kere

ls (

froz

en)

39.2

24

.8

Sar

dine

s, s

ardi

nella

s, b

risl

ing

or s

prat

s (f

roze

n),

crab

mea

t (pr

epar

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56

4.2 Agriculture

This section focuses on agriculture. Owing to availability of data, the historical production of the major commodities is given for the region, while information about trade is provided for the 11 selected countries.

4.2.1 Historical production

The performance of the agriculture sector in sub-Saharan Africa has improved in the most recent decade (2000–2010). A number of factors may have influenced the growth in the sector, such as rising commodity prices, world markets experiencing a commodity boom, improvements in the policy environment and increased investments in agriculture at a time when African governments and donors have been rallying to increase their support for agriculture (IFPRI, 2012). This section analyses the historical production of the main agricultural commodities in the region from the 1980s to 2013 and provides an overview of agricultural trade in 2011.

All quantities and values presented in this section are derived from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014–2023 (OECD/FAO, 2014) unless otherwise stated. Production figures for sub-Saharan Africa provided by OECD-FAO exclude South Africa. Examples of production in this country are presented separately where relevant.

Numerous crops in sub-Saharan Africa have been domesticated in the region and spread to other parts of the world. These crops included sorghum, castor beans, coffee, black-eyed peas, watermelon, gourd, and pearl millet cotton (Vandaveer, 2006). Other domesticated crops include African rice, yams, kola nuts, oil-palm, and raffia palm (Ehret, 2002).

In terms of grains, sub-Saharan Africa has a richer variety of grains than anywhere in the world (Ehret, 2002). Figure 20 presents the evolution in the production of coarse grains, which include mainly barley, maize, sorghum and other local coarse grains.

Coarse grain production increased more than threefold from 30 million tonnes in 1983 to 96 million tonnes in 2013. On average, production grew by 4.5 percent a year, although the overall rising trend was punctuated by frequent fluctuations.

The main producers of coarse grains in the region are Nigeria and Ethiopia, whose production stood at 23.7 million tonnes and 16.7 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013. Other large producers of coarse grains are South Africa (13.2 million tonnes), the United Republic of Tanzania (5.6 million tonnes) and the Sudan (4.8 million tonnes).

Maize accounts for the dominant share in coarse grains production in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the production of maize amounted to 61 million tonnes in 2013.5 Large producers of maize are the United Republic of Tanzania and Kenya with 5.1 million tonnes and 3.6 million tonnes, respectively, in 2012 (FAO, 2012a).

5 The USDA’s definition of sub-Saharan Africa is slightly different from the one used in this report; however, this has little or no impact on production quantity of maize.

57

Figure 20. Coarse grain production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131

1 Provisional. Source: OECD.Stat (2013).

Figure 21 describes wheat and rice production for 1983–2013. Production of rice grew steadily at 3.4 percent per annum on average from 4.3 million tonnes in 1983 to 7.5 percent in 2002. Then, production accelerated, growing at about 6 percent per annum on average, and increased to 13.5 million tonnes in 2010. Subsequently, production fell to 12.8 million tonnes in 2012 and recovered to 13.9 million tonnes in 2013.

Wheat production grew at 9 percent per annum on average from 1983 to 2013, which is faster than that of coarse grains or rice. Production increased steadily from 663 000 tonnes in 1983 to 1.6 million tonnes in 1991, sharply decreased to 896 000 tonnes in 1992, and recovered to 1.9 million tonnes in 1993. Thereafter, production followed a general upward trend, reaching 4.6 million tonnes in 2013. Similar to production of coarse grains, production of wheat experienced some variations throughout the period.

Ethiopia and South Africa are the largest wheat producers in sub-Saharan Africa, with 3.6 million tonnes and 1.9 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013. Other important producers include Kenya (442 000 tonnes), Zambia (246 000 tonnes) and the Sudan (186 000 tonnes),

In terms of rice production, Nigeria and Madagascar are the largest producers in the region, with 4 million tonnes and 4.8 million tonnes, respectively, in 2012 (FAO, 2012a).

Figure 22 presents the evolution in the production of oilseeds, oilseed meals and vegetable oils from 1983 to 2013.

Production of oilseeds, which include rapeseed (canola), soybeans, sunflower seed, peanuts and cotton seeds, increased by 143 percent from 3.7 million tonnes in 1983 to 9 million tonnes in 1989. Production decreased to 8.4 million tonnes in 2002 and subsequently increased to almost 9.6 million tonnes in 2013. The most important producers of oilseeds are Nigeria (3.7 million tonnes in 2013), South Africa (1.7 million tonnes) and the Sudan (839 000 tonnes).

58

Figure 21. Wheat and rice production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131


Production of oilseed meal, which is defined as rapeseed meal (canola), soybean meal, and sunflower meal, doubled from 1.6 million tonnes in 1983 to almost 3.2 million tonnes in 1997; subsequently, production increased gradually to 4.2 million tonnes in 2013. Among the main producers are Nigeria, South Africa and the Sudan with 1 million tonnes, 851 000 tonnes and 339 000 tonnes, respectively, in 2013.

Figure 22. Oilseeds, oilseed meal and vegetable oils production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131


Similar to the production of oilseed meal, the production of vegetable oils (defined as rapeseed oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, coconut oil, palm kernel oil, peanuts oil and palm oil) grew steadily from 2.1 million tonnes in 1983 to 3.9 million tonnes in 1997 and then dropped to 3.6 million tonnes in 1998. Thereafter, production stabilized at about 4 million tonnes, intensified in 2008, and reached 5 million tonnes in 2013. The most important producers are Nigeria and South Africa, which produced 1.6 million tonnes and 426 000 tonnes, respectively, in 2013.

59

Figure 23 describes the evolution of meat production in sub-Saharan Africa from 1983 to 2013. The production of all types of meat increased throughout the period. Beef and veal production is dominant. Production increased by 87 percent from about 2 million tonnes in 1983 to 3.8 million tonnes in 2013. However, the production of beef and veal has grown at a lower rate in the last decade compared with other types of meat. The production of poultry grew faster than that of beef and veal, from 493 000 tonnes in 1983 to almost 1.3 million tonnes in 2013, an almost 170 percent increase. Poultry has demonstrated the highest average growth rate in the last decade. Sheep production increased by 215 percent from 689 000 tonnes in 1983 to almost 2.2 million tonnes in 2013. Pork production also increased significantly from 268 000 tonnes in 1983 to 949 000 tonnes in 2013, an increase of 255 percent. However, the annual growth rates of both sheep and pork have been decreasing in the last decade.

The most important producers of beef and veal in the region are South Africa and Ethiopia, whose production stood at 964.7 million tonnes and 388 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013. Among other large producers are the Sudan, the United Republic of Tanzania and Nigeria. South Africa and Mozambique are important producers of pork, producing 303 000 tonnes and 109 000 tonnes, respectively, in 2013. South Africa is also the largest producer of poultry (1.6 million tonnes in 2013), while the largest producers of sheep are the Sudan (526 000 tonnes), Nigeria (447 000 tonnes in 2013), Ethiopia (146 000 tonnes) and South Africa (175 000 tonnes).

Figure 23. Meat production in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131


Figure 24 presents the production of milk and fresh dairy products in sub-Saharan Africa from 1983 to 2013. Milk production increased considerably from 10.8 million tonnes in 1983 to 28 million tonnes in 2013, a 159 percent increase. Production of fresh dairy products grew from 11.4 million tonnes in 1983 to 29 million tonnes in 2013, an increase of 154 percent.

60

Figure 24. Production of milk and fresh dairy products in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131


The largest producers of milk and dairy products in the region are the Sudan (with 8.1 million tonnes and 7.6 million tonnes in 2013, respectively) and South Africa (3.3 million tonnes and 2.9 million tonnes). They are closely followed by the United Republic of Tanzania (1.9 million tonnes and 2.9 million tonnes) and Ethiopia (1.9 million tonnes and 2.2 million tonnes).

Figure 25 presents the development in raw sugar production in sub-Saharan Africa. Production increased steadily from 3.8 million tonnes in 1995 to 5.1 million tonnes in 2005, decreased to 4.9 million tonnes in 2007 and then recovered to 5 million tonnes in 2009. Thereafter, production intensified and increased to 6.7 million tonnes in 2013, a 34 percent increase compared with the level of 2009.

The main producers of raw sugar in the region are South Africa (2.2 million tonnes), the Sudan (910 000 tonnes) and Mozambique (513 000 tonnes). Zambia and the United Republic of Tanzania are also important producers of raw sugar with their production standing at 373 000 tonnes and 468 000 tonnes, respectively, in 2013.

Figure 26 presents cotton production in sub-Saharan Africa in 1983–2013. Cotton production was very volatile in this period. Production increased from 931 000 tonnes in 1983 to 1.2 million tonnes in 1988 and then dropped to 811 000 tonnes in 1993. Thereafter, production began growing and reached 1.4 million tonnes in 1997 and then dropped again to 1.2 million tonnes in 2000. Production then accelerated and peaked at 1.7 million tonnes in 2004, the highest level observed in the period under consideration. This was followed by a sharp drop to 813 000 tonnes in 2009. Subsequently, production recovered to 1.3 million tonnes in 2013.

Important cotton producers in the region include Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Benin, Mozambique, the United Republic of Tanzania, Nigeria, Zambia and the Sudan.

61

Figure 25. Production of raw sugar in sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–20131


Figure 26. Production of cotton in sub-Saharan Africa, 1983–20131


4.2.2 Trade

Trade in agricultural products for the 11 selected countries is highlighted in two tables. While Table 32 gives export and import values and the main traded commodities, Table 33 gives major export and import partners. Unless otherwise indicated, all data presented are from FAO (2012a), where the latest available trade statistics are for 2011.

The largest economy of sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa, is by far most important in terms of agricultural trade, with exports of USD6.9 billion and imports of USD6.6 billion. The second-largest economy, Nigeria, is the largest importer with USD6.9 billion; however, the country has a trade deficit of USD5.4 billion. Côte d’Ivoire is the second-largest exporter with USD6.6 billion and has a substantial export surplus.

62

Ghana (USD3 billion), Kenya (USD2.6 billion) and Uganda (USD1.2 billion) are also important exporters with substantial export surpluses. The other countries under consideration are all net importers.

Table 32. Agricultural exports and imports values and the main traded commodities for the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2011

Country Export value (USD)

Import value (USD)

Net export value (USD)

Main export commodities

% Main import commodities

%

Côte d’Ivoire 6.6 billion 1.4 billion 5.2 billion Cocoa beans 46 Wheat 13 Rubber nat dry 17 Tobacco,

unmanufactured 7

Cocoa paste 8 Milk dried 3 Palm oil 4 Palm oil 3 Cashew nuts,

with shell 4 Homogenized

composite food preparations

2

Ghana 3 billion 1.7 billion 1.3 billion Cocoa beans 73 Sugar refined 14 Cocoa butter 6 Chicken meat 10 Cashew nuts,

with shell 6 Wheat 9

Sugar refined 4 Palm oil 5 Rubber nat dry 2 Paste of tomatoes 4 Kenya 2.6 billion 2 billion 0.6 billion Tea 33 Wheat 22 Coffee, green 10 Palm oil 10 Beans, green 5 Tea 8 Pineapples

canned 3 Sugar raw centrifugal 6

Cigarettes 2 Sugar refined 5 Madagascar 346

million 503 million –157

million Cloves 50 Flour of wheat 10

Oil essential 12 Palm oil 9 Vanilla 11 Sugar raw centrifugal 8 Cocoa beans 5 Sugar refined 8 Sugar raw

centrifugal 4 Food wastes 6

Mozambique 576 million

941 million –365 million

Tobacco, unmanufactured

38 Wheat 10

Sugar raw centrifugal

17 Soybean oil 7

Cashew nuts, with shell

8 Homogenized composite food preparations

7

Cotton lint 7 Cake of soybeans 5 Sesame seed 5 Palm oil 5 Namibia 224

million 375.6 million

–151.6 million

Meat-cattle beef and veal

32 Rubber nat dry 22

Grapes 17 Malt 9 Beer of barley 10 Sunflower oil 6 Sheep meat 3 Coffee, green 5 Cattle meat 2 Wheat 4 Nigeria 1.5 billion 6.9 billion –5.4 billion Cocoa beans 51 Wheat 21 Rubber nat dry 16 Palm oil 14 Sesame seed 10 Sugar raw centrifugal 7 Cocoa butter 4 Milk whole dried 5 Cigarettes 3 Food prep, flour, malt

extract 4

63

Table 32 (continued) Senegal 504

million 1.6 billion –1.096

billion Groundnut oil 16 Wheat 11

Homogenized composite food preparations

14 Sugar refined 7

Cigarettes 10 Food prep., flour, malt extract

6

Tobacco products nes

6 Palm oil 5

Cotton lint 5 Milk whole dried 5 South Africa 6.9 billion 6.5 billion 400 million Maize 12 Wheat 9 Wine 11 Palm oil 6 Oranges 9 Soybean oil 6 Grapes 6 Beverages, distilled

alcohol 6

Apples 4 Cake of soybeans 6 Uganda 1.2 billion 767 million 433 million Coffee, green 39 Palm oil 29 Cotton carded,

combed 7 Wheat 21

Tea 6 Sugar refined 13 Sugar raw

centrifugal 5 Beer of barley 3


4 Homogenized composite food preparations

3


982 million

1.1 billion –118 million

Coffee, green 14 Wheat 36


11 Palm oil 24

Cashew nuts, with shell

11 Sugar refined 10

Sesame seed 7 Barley 3 Cotton lint 5 Malt 2 Source: FAO, (2012a).

64

Table 33. Major export and import partners for the 11 selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa, 2011

Country Export partners Share (%) Import partners Share (%) Côte d’Ivoire Netherlands 18 France 20

United States of America 14 Netherlands 4 Germany 8 Malaysia 3France 7 Brazil 3

Malaysia 6 Spain 3Ghana n.a. n.a. Brazil 12

n.a. n.a. Canada 7n.a. n.a. Belgium 6n.a. n.a. China 6n.a. n.a. China, mainland 6

Kenya n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Madagascar Singapore 28 Malaysia 11

France 18 France 9India 12 Brazil 7

Indonesia 7 Egypt 7United States of America 6 South Africa 6

Mozambique n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Namibia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Nigeria n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Senegal Lebanon 11 France 15

Guinea 8 Côte d'Ivoire 6France 7 Brazil 6Mali 7 Argentina 4

Cameroon 5 Netherlands 3 South Africa Netherlands 10 Argentina 12

United Kingdom 8 Brazil 7Zimbabwe 8 United States of America 6

China 7 Malaysia 6Mexico 6 Indonesia 6

Uganda Sudan (former) 15 Indonesia 27Kenya 13 Kenya 12

Switzerland 10 India 6Germany 7 Pakistan 5Singapore 6 Brazil 5

United Republic of Tanzania India 15 Indonesia 21 China 9 Argentina 10

China, mainland 9 United States of America 9 Japan 7 Australia 7

Belgium 6 Russian Federation 6 n.a. = not available. Source: FAO (2012a).

65

5. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FOOD PRODUCTION

This section analyses the economic aspects of food production up to 2022 in sub-Saharan Africa. First, projected production in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors (Section 5.1) is presented and then estimated production in agriculture in the region (Section 5.2). This is followed by further analysis (Section 5.3), while the final section provides policy recommendations.

5.1 Fisheries and aquaculture

Section 4 provided an overview of the development in fisheries and aquaculture production in sub-Saharan Africa. This section presents the forecast capture and aquaculture production in the least-developed countries (LDCs) of sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa as well as the forecast for individual countries where the information is available for the period from 2014 to 2022.

According to OECD/FAO (2013), world fisheries and aquaculture production is expected to reach 181 million tonnes by 2022, which is an 18 percent increase compared with the average level for 2010–12. Capture production in this period is forecast to grow by only 5 percent, from about 91 million tonnes to around 96 million tonnes by 2022. As highlighted in Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014), the increase in capture production is expected to be limited due to the overfishing of numerous fish stocks (FAO, 2012b), so that increased catches can mainly be attributed to stock recovery resulting from improved resource management. As a result, the main driver of growth in fish production will be aquaculture production, which according to OECD/FAO (2013), is expected to increase by 35 percent from 66.2 million tonnes in 2012 to 85 million tonnes by 2022. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 2.54 percent, which is considerably less than the 5.9 percent achieved in the decade up to 2012.

Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014) found the assumption of a 2.54 percent growth rate somewhat pessimistic. Although growth in any expanding industry is likely to slow over time, more than halving the growth rate in the coming decade does not seem very probable. For this reason, Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014) prepared alternative scenarios for future fish production using the FAO Fish Model, which involved different growth rates for aquaculture production while the growth rates for capture fisheries remained unchanged. The results for future aquaculture production in some scenarios appeared to be very similar. Thus, this section examines two scenarios:

i. The base case, as per OECD/FAO (2013), involves an increase in world aquaculture production from 66.2 million tonnes in 2012 to 85 million tonnes in 2022, or a total increase of 28.5 percent over the period. This gives an average annual growth rate of 2.54 percent.

ii. An “optimistic” scenario as per Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014), which involves an increase in world aquaculture production from 66.2 million tonnes in 2012 to 99 million tonnes in 2022, or a total growth of 50 percent over the period. This gives an average annual growth rate of 4.14 percent.

All production quantities in this section are taken from the FAO Fish Model. As the 2012 marks the starting point for the model, the figures for 2014 presented below are predictions. Moreover, when using the model for the two scenarios, the production estimates for 2014 will be slightly different.

Figure 27 presents projected capture fisheries production in sub-Saharan Africa in 2014–2022. As mentioned above, owing to the fact that a large proportion of fish stocks in the world are fully fished or overfished (FAO, 2012b), the potential for increase in world capture fisheries production is very limited (Bjørndal and Munro, 2012). Consequently, capture fisheries production in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase only by 3.2 percent from 6.3 million tonnes in 2014 to 6.5 million tonnes in 2022.

66

Figure 27. Capture production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022

Source: Adapted from the FAO Fish Model (2013). With aquaculture expected to drive the growth in future fish production, global aquaculture production is estimated to increase from 70.7 million tonnes in 2014 to 85.1 million tonnes in 2022 in the base scenario (+20.2 percent), while in the optimistic scenario it is projected to rise from 73.5 million tonnes in 2014 to 99.3 million tonnes in 2022 (+35 percent).

Africa is projected to remain the second-smallest aquaculture producing region in the world by 2022 (only Oceania is expected to have a lower production). In the base case scenario, production in Africa will increase at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent from 1.53 million tonnes in 2014 to 2 million tonnes in 2022 (+33 percent), whereas in the optimistic scenario it is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent from 1.6 million tonnes in 2014 to 2.37 million tonnes in 2022 (+48 percent).

Within the sub-Saharan region, aquaculture production is expected to remain small, but is estimated to grow at a slightly faster pace than in Africa as a whole as well as globally (Figure 28). Production is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 4.1 percent from 440 000 tonnes in 2014 to 604 000 tonnes in 2022 in the base scenario (+37.3 percent), and at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent from 453 000 tonnes in 2014 to 670 000 tonnes in 2022 in the optimistic scenario (+49 percent).

Within these two scenarios, by 2022, sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to account for 28–30 percent of total aquaculture production in Africa. To put this into perspective, in 2013, the region represented almost 83 percent of the population of Africa.6 Thus, the share of aquaculture production is substantially lower than the share of population.

The development in aquaculture in sub-Saharan Africa has been analysed by many, including: Muir et al. (2005), Brummett, Lazard and Moehl (2008), Abban et al. (2009), Isyagi et al. (2009), Mwale (2009), Ngugi and Manyala (2009), and Brummett et al. (2011). Although high-level policy support has been directed towards aquaculture development in Africa (NEPAD, 2005), the increase in production is expected to be marginal for a number of reasons. Although the growth rate for the region is fairly substantial, the absolute production is expected to remain relatively small when compared with other parts of the world for a number of reasons. These include: lack of capital-intensive investments for infrastructure, distribution and storage; limited technical support for aquaculture

6 According to the World Bank, Africa’s population in 2013 is estimated at 1 108 million while that of sub-Saharan Africa is estimated at 918 million (Section 3).

67

enterprises; and low accessibility to credit for start-up fish farms. Moreover, a systematic analysis of aquaculture value chains needs to be pursued in order to develop well-managed hatcheries, fish feed production facilities, distribution and points for retail. Finally, an enabling policy environment needs to be established, where constraints and opportunities for the private sector and small-scale farmers have been identified and challenges removed.

Despite these challenges that must be addressed, the number of consumers in the region will grow considerably, owing largely to the rapid population growth. As a result, per capita fish consumption is expected to decrease from 6.8 kg per person in 2010 to 5.6 kg per person in 2030 as reported by the World Bank (2013).

Figure 28. Aquaculture production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 (base scenario and optimistic scenario)

Source: FAO Fish Model (2013).

Least-developed countries

Fish production is expected to vary substantially in the different regions and countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Owing to the importance of the increase in future food production in the LDCs of the world, the FAO Fish Model gives special attention to the LDCs of sub-Saharan Africa (LDC sub-Saharan Africa). In total, 28 out of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa are classified as least developed (see Appendix). For this reason, fish production in LDC sub-Saharan Africa will be analysed separately, and these countries will be compared with the rest of sub-Saharan Africa as well as Africa in general.

Total capture production in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 6.2 million tonnes in 2014 to 6.5 million tonnes in 2022. The production in LDC sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 2.9 million tonnes to 3 million tonnes in the period from 2014 to 2022, while that in the remaining sub-Saharan African countries is expected to grow from 3.4 to 3.5 million tonnes. In other words, growth in capture fisheries will be very limited in both regions.

As noted above, total aquaculture production in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow from 440 000 tonnes to 604 000 tonnes in the base scenario and from 453 000 tonnes to 670 000 tonnes in the optimistic scenario. The production in LDC sub-Saharan Africa will grow at an estimated average annual rate of 5 percent from 135 000 tonnes in 2014 to 200 000 tonnes in 2022 in both the base and the optimistic scenarios, which would result in an overall increase of 48 percent (Figure 29).

68

Figure 29. Aquaculture production in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 (base = optimistic scenario)

Source: FAO Fish Model (2013). Aquaculture production in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue to be larger than that in LDC sub-Saharan Africa and is forecast to have a greater increase in the optimistic scenario. Production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent from 305 000 tonnes in 2014 to 404 000 tonnes in 2022 in the base scenario, which would result in an overall increase of 32 percent. In the optimistic scenario, production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent from 318 000 tonnes in 2014 to 471 000 tonnes in 2022, which would result in an overall increase of 48 percent (Figure 30).

Figure 30. Aquaculture production in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022 (base scenario and optimistic scenario)

Source: FAO Fish Model (2013). To conclude, the projected overall increase in aquaculture production in both regions in the base scenario is forecast to be the same, 32 percent, from 2014 to 2022. However, in the optimistic scenario, the overall increase in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa over the projected period is expected to be higher than that in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 48 percent versus 32 percent.

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Individual countries

Among the 11 countries selected for further analysis, the FAO Fish Model provides data only for five: Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania. Future fish production in these countries under different scenarios is given in Table 34

Table 34. Capture and aquaculture production, 2014 and 2022, for selected countries Country Capture Aquaculture Base Optimistic Base Optimistic 2014 2022 2014 2022 2014 2022 2014 2022 (thousand tonnes) Ghana 357 357 357 357 11 15 12 17 Mozambique 198 230

(+16%) 198 230

(+16%) 1 1 1 1

Nigeria 660 740 (+12%)

660 740 (+12%)

240 320 (+33%)

251 374 (+49%)

South Africa 633 604 (–4.8%)

633 604 (–4.8%)

4 4 4 4


381 405 (+6.3%)

381 405 (+6.3%)

0.9 1.7 0.9 2

For Nigeria, the production increase is expected to be substantial, in relative and absolute terms, for both capture fisheries and aquaculture under both scenarios. Capture fishery production in South Africa may show a small decline, with aquaculture remaining stagnant. For the United Republic of Tanzania, and even more so for Mozambique, capture production is forecast to increase; however, aquaculture will remain stagnant in both countries.

As indicated in previous sections, the population growth rates in sub-Saharan African countries are among the highest in the world. Based on these estimated population growth rates during the projected period, Table 35 shows per capita fishery product availability from domestic sources for selected sub-Saharan countries. Per capita fishery product availability from domestic sources is expected to decline for all five countries even under the optimistic scenario and, for some of them, even more so in the base case. Other sub-Saharan countries are likely to face a similar situation. This result has serious implications for food security in sub-Saharan African countries.

Although by global standards, sub-Saharan African countries have low per capita fish consumption, these countries have low consumption of other animal proteins as well. As a result, fish contributes more than 20 percent to total animal protein consumption in most sub-Saharan African countries, and more than 50 percent in some countries such as the Gambia, Ghana and Sierra Leone (Tacon and Metian, 2009; FAO, 2014). Some studies (for example, Gomna and Rana, 2007; Fa et al. 2009) found a strong preference for fish over other types of meat among low-income groups in sub-Saharan countries.

Table 35. Annual Per capita fishery product availability from domestic sources (capture and aquaculture production), 2014 and 2022, for selected countries

Country Base Optimistic 2014 2022 2014 2022 (kg/capita) Ghana 13.81 11.59 13.83 11.65 Mozambique 7.46 6.19 7.46 6.19 Nigeria 5.04 4.71 5.10 4.95 South Africa 11.94 10.68 11.94 10.68 United Republic of Tanzania 7.47 6.13 7.47 6.14

Source: Capture and aquaculture production: Table 34; population: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).

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Domestic demand and supply of fish

As suggested in the sections above, the demand for fish in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to increase owing to population and income growth, urbanization and dietary changes. The results of the FAO Fish Model presented in this section are based on a relatively low-income elasticity of demand suggested by Muhammad et al.(2013) (0.35–0.65), that is, an increase in income will result in a less than proportionate increase in fish consumption. However, some other studies have found higher income or expenditure elasticities for fish; for example, 0.86 among rural households in Malawi (Ecker and Qaim, 2011) and 0.75 in Ibadan, Nigeria (Yusuf, 2012). Some other studies have combined fish and meat into a single food group, and found much higher income elasticity of that group. For example, 0.71–0.78 in Uganda (Ulimwengu and Ramadan, 2009), 1.31–1.37 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Ulimwengu, Roberts and Randriamamonjy, 2012), 1.12–1.15 in South Africa (Bopape and Myers, 2007), and 1.04 in the United Republic of Tanzania (Abdulai and Aubert, 2004). Overall, several studies suggest that demand for fish in sub-Saharan Africa will increase with growth in incomes.

The demand growth for fish will need to be met largely by an increase in imports and/or by expansion in aquaculture production. Without increases in imports and/or substantial aquaculture expansion, per capita fish consumption is likely to decrease in sub-Saharan countries. That means, without substantial expansion in aquaculture, sub-Saharan countries need to import more to meet the increased domestic demand. Increased imports of fish and fishery products could also strain the foreign exchange reserves of these countries.

Prices

This section presents forecasts of fish prices for the period up to 2022 for different scenarios for the world as well as for sub-Saharan Africa. All price series in this section have been normalized with the 2012 price equal to 100.

Figure 31 presents forecasts for world fish prices from 2012 to 2022 for the base case as well as for the optimistic scenario. Prices are seen to fluctuate over time in the same pattern for both scenarios. These fluctuations, discussed further in the summary below, are largely due to El Niño effects, as outlined in Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014). Compared with 2012, in 2022 an overall increase of 2 percent is expected in the base scenario while prices are forecast to remain unchanged in the optimistic scenario. This illustrates the importance of increased aquaculture production in keeping fish prices down.

The World Bank (2013) made projections for real prices of different fish species categories for the 2010–2030 period and found similar trends. Given that sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of hunger and undernutrition (Zuberi and Thomas, 2012) and that fish plays a crucial role in the human diet in the region, a modest increase in real fish prices is likely to have a serious impact on food security in many sub-Saharan States.

The World Bank (2013) study shows that pelagic species are likely to have higher increases in real prices over the projected period. Fish imports in sub-Saharan countries are dominated by small pelagic species that are also used for non-food uses. Thus, consumers in sub-Saharan Africa face competition with the animal feed industry. With a global increase in demand for fish feed, the prices of imported fish in African countries are likely to rise. Therefore, in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a need for substitution of imports with domestically produced fish from aquaculture.

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Figure 31. World fish prices, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios with normalized prices)


Figure 32 presents fish prices in LDC sub-Saharan Africa in 2012–2022. It is apparent that the overall trends are qualitatively similar to those for the world as a whole. Overall, between 2012 and 2022, prices will increase by an estimated 8 percent in the base scenario and 10 percent in the optimistic scenario. In other words, prices will increase substantially more than for the world as a whole.

Figure 33 shows fish prices in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa in the period from 2012 to 2022. Again, the qualitative nature in terms of price fluctuations over time is the same as for the world as well as for Africa in general. Overall, prices are expected to increase by one percent from 2013 to 2022 in the base scenario and to remain unchanged in the optimistic scenario. However, prices are projected to fluctuate substantially throughout the period in question.

Figure 32. Fish price in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios with normalized prices)


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Figure 33. Fish prices in rest of sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022 (base and optimistic scenarios by percentage)

Source: FAO Fish Model (2013). In the analysis above, it is notable that fish prices in LCD sub-Saharan Africa are expected to increase substantially more than in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa and the world. This is discussed further below.

Summary

This section analyses two scenarios for increased fish production in sub-Saharan Africa. Total fish production in sub-Saharan Africa will probably increase from its 2014 level of 6.7 million tonnes to 7–7.1 million tonnes in 2022, depending on the assumptions. Capture production is expected to increase from 6.3 million tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes, while aquaculture is forecast to increase from 440 000–453 000 tonnes in 2014 to 604 000–670 000 tonnes in 2022. This implies that the share of aquaculture in total fish production in sub-Saharan Africa may increase from 7–7.2 percent in 2014 to 8.7–9.5 percent in 2022. Nevertheless, compared with the world as a whole and most other regions of the world, the relative share of aquaculture in total fish production will remain low (FAO, 2012b).

The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 918 million in 2013 to 1 217 million in 2025, a 31 percent increase (Section 3). Accordingly, the population increase will be substantially higher than the increase in fish production, which is a reason for the expected fall in per capita fish consumption in the coming decades (World Bank, 2013).

There are slight differences in aquaculture production between LDC sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Aquaculture production is estimated to grow in both LDC sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of quantity, aquaculture production is expected to remain higher in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa at 404 000–471 000 tonnes in 2022, depending on the scenario. The overall increase of 32 percent is expected in both regions in the base scenario in 2022 compared with 2014. However, in the optimistic scenario, production is expected to have a higher overall increase in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa than that in LDC sub-Saharan Africa, 48 percent versus 32 percent.

Qualitatively, the future evolution in fish prices in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be similar to that of the world as a whole. However, in the period 2012–2022, fish prices in LDC sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to increase by 8 percent in the base scenario and 10 percent in the optimistic scenario. The evolution in prices in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase by one percent in the base scenario and remain unchanged in the optimistic scenario over the period in question. It can be

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postulated that the larger increase in prices in LDC sub-Saharan Africa compared with the rest of sub-Saharan Africa is the result of the interplay of higher population growth and other factors, creating more demand such as increase in GDP per capita, on the one hand, and equal or slower growth in aquaculture production, on the other. This would assume that aquaculture is the main driver of fish supply growth, which, as has been seen above, will grow equally in the two regions according to the base scenario, but more in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, according to the optimistic scenario. In addition, the limited fish trade of sub-Saharan Africa with the rest of the world will probably contribute to an increase in fish prices over time. However, regional trade within Africa has good potential and can benefit producers, consumers and traders in sub-Saharan Africa (Béné, Lawton and Allison, 2010; HLPE, 2014).

Taking into account that in 2022 LDC sub-Saharan Africa will continue to be the economically poorest region with the highest fertility rate in the world (Section 3), the increase in prices may adversely affect food security in these countries.

5.2 Agriculture

Section 4 provides an overview of the evolution in agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa. This section presents forecast production of the main agricultural commodities in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2022. As in Section 4, all quantities and values presented are derived from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013–2022, unless otherwise indicated. Owing to the nature of production data provided by OECD–FAO, this section analyses production in the region as a whole and presents examples of individual countries where available. According to OECD–FAO, production figures for South Africa are excluded from sub-Saharan African region and are discussed separately where relevant. Rosegrant et al. (2005) also projected crop production in Africa for the period up to 2025 under alterative scenarios.

The performance of the agriculture sector in sub-Saharan Africa has improved from 2000 to 2010 (Section 4). In the period up to 2022, production of the main agricultural commodities is expected to continue to grow. One of the reasons for this is the potential for cropland area expansion in the region. As estimated by Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012), net land available for crops in the world may potentially have increased by 70 million hectares by 2050 and most of this increase may occur in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. However, the production of certain commodities is projected to grow at a faster pace than in the previous decade, while certain others would grow at a slower pace.

Figure 34 describes the projected production of wheat, coarse grains and rice. The production of coarse grains and wheat is expected to increase by 27 percent to 121 million tonnes and by 39 percent to 6.4 million tonnes from 2014 to 2022, respectively. However, production of these commodities is estimated to grow at a slightly slower rate compared with the previous decade. Coarse grains production will grow at a projected average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent in 2014–2022 in contrast to 5 percent in 2004–2013, while wheat will grow at a projected annual growth rate of 2.6 percent in 2014–2022 as opposed to 3.7 in 2004–2013. However, the average annual growth rate for rice production is projected to be 6.4 percent in 2014–2022, which is slightly higher than in the previous decade (5.9 percent). Rice production is forecast to reach 24.3 million tonnes in 2022, a 75 percent increase. Some countries in the region are projected to increase their production of rice by more than 100 percent: Ethiopia (161 percent), South Africa (137 percent) and Mozambique (107 percent). A recent study (de Graft-Johnson et al., 2014) shows that productivity and profitability of rice farming in Ghana can be significantly enhanced with the adoption of modern rice varieties and associated technologies such as fertilizer, and water control.

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Figure 34. Wheat, coarse grains and rice production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022

Source: OECD.Stat (2013). Notwithstanding the large gains in production expected for Africa, even stronger increases in consumption are projected to establish the region as the major focus for international rice trade, absorbing more than half of the world trade by volume. Overall, the region’s average per capita intake of rice is expected to increase from 24 kg per annum in 2012 to 30 kg per annum in 2022. Imports into sub-Saharan Africa, in particular Nigeria, are expected to rise, despite the fact that many countries have launched rice self-sufficiency initiatives.

Figure 35 presents production forecasts for oilseeds, oilseed meals and vegetable oils from 2014 to 2022. Oilseed production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent, which is higher than in 2004–2013, and increase from 9.9 million tonnes in 2014 to 12.2 million tonnes in 2022, a 23 percent increase. Vegetable oil production is also likely to grow faster than in the previous decade, 3.3 percent per annum on average versus 1.9 percent per annum on average. The production of vegetable oils is expected to increase by 23 percent from 5.1 million tonnes in 2014 to 6.3 million tonnes in 2022. Production of oilseed meals will probably continue to grow at 2.6 percent per annum on average and increase from 4.3 million tonnes to 5.6 million tonnes, an overall increase of 30 percent.

Potential for the integration of agriculture and aquaculture exists in various parts of sub-Saharan Africa (Brummett, 1999; Dey et al., 2010). With farm residues and oilseed meals widely used in Africa as fish and animal feeds, expansion of crop agriculture is likely to have positive synergetic impacts on aquaculture and other animal production sectors.

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Figure 35. Production of oilseeds, oilseed meals and vegetable oils in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022

Source: OECD.Stat (2013).

Figure 36 describes the expected production of beef and veal, pork, poultry and sheep in sub-Saharan Africa. The production of beef and veal is forecast to grow at a higher average annual rate than in 2004–2013, 3.6 percent per annum compared with 2.2 percent per annum in the previous decade. Beef and veal production is expected to increase from 3.9 million tonnes in 2014 to 5.3 million tonnes in 2022, a 37 percent increase. Similarly, pork production is expected to grow faster in 2014–2022 than in 2004–2013 (3.7 percent per annum on average versus 3.3 percent per annum) from 994 000 tonnes in 2014 tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes in 2022, a 31 percent increase.

Poultry and sheep production is expected to grow in 2014–2022, yet less than in the previous decade. The growth rate for poultry production is forecast at 3 percent, down 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous decade, while that of sheep is expected to decrease from 3.4 percent per annum on average to 2.2 percent per annum. Despite declining growth rates, poultry production is projected to increase by 26 percent from about 1.37 million tonnes in 2014 to 1.73 million tonnes in 2022, while sheep production is expected to increase by 18 percent from 2.2 million tonnes in 2014 to 2.6 million tonnes in 2022.

Despite the projected growth in the meat sector, meat production is still lagging compared with many developing countries in the world. According to OECD/FAO (2013), productivity gains and the realization of economies of scale are not anticipated in the coming years in sub-Saharan Africa owing to the limited possibilities for investment in manufacturing and other infrastructure.

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Figure 36. Meat production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022


Figure 37 presents the expected development in milk and dairy products production up to 2022. Production of fresh dairy products is predicted to increase from 29.7 million tonnes in 2014 to 36 million tonnes in 2022 (an increase of 21 percent), while that of milk is forecast to grow from 28.7 million tonnes in 2014 to 34 million tonnes in 2022 (an increase of 18 percent). The average growth rates of fresh dairy products and milk are estimated at 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, which are lower than in the previous decade.

Figure 37. Milk and fresh dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022


Sugar production in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to increase by 32 percent from 6.8 million tonnes in 2014 to 9 million tonnes in 2022 (Figure 38), which implies an average annual growth rate of 3 percent, slightly lower than in 2004–2013 (3.3 percent). According to OECD/FAO (2013), production gains are expected especially in South Africa, Mozambique and the United Republic of Tanzania. The projected annual growth rate for sugar production in the region is expected to be higher than that in the world, which is forecast at 1.9 percent per annum on average (OECD/FAO, 2013).

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Figure 38. Sugar production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022


Figure 39 presents the forecast production of cotton in 2014–2022. It is predicted that cotton production in the region will expand in 2014–2022, growing on average at 5.1 percent per annum, which is considerably higher than in 2004–2013 (1 percent per annum on average). Production is projected to increase from 1.36 million tonnes in 2014 to 2.1 million tonnes in 2022, an increase of 54 percent.

Figure 39. Cotton production in sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2022

Source: OECD.Stat (2013). Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa is very low by the standards of other developing countries. Using FAOSTAT data, Chauvin, Mulangu and Porto (2012) reported that cereal yields in Nigeria are about one-third of those in China, oil crop yields in Indonesia are about 15 times those in Nigeria, and cotton seed yields in Burkina Faso are about one-third of those in China. With appropriate technology, infrastructure and policy support, it is possible to have significant growth in agricultural production in sub-Saharan countries in the next decade or so. The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has an agricultural growth target of 6 percent per year, and nine countries (Angola, Eritrea,

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Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, Senegal, and the United Republic of Tanzania) had exceeded this target by 2008 (NEPAD, 2014).

Given the high population growth rate in Africa, the Boserupian theory of technological innovation might work in the region. Boserup (1981) suggested that growing population pressure might make low-productive agriculture a non-viable option and could force households/nations to adopt more productive agriculture. More recently, FAO has advocated that a sustainable crop production intensification approach must underpin intensification of crop production, especially for small-scale farmers. This approach aims to produce more from the same area of land while conserving resources, reducing negative impacts on the environment and enhancing natural capital and the flow of ecosystem services. The approach is based on conservation agriculture practices, the use of good seed of high-yielding adapted varieties, integrated pest management, plant nutrition based on healthy soils, efficient water management, and the integration of crops, pastures, trees and livestock (FAO, 2011).

In line with this approach, the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development has called for a shift from current farming practices to sustainable agriculture systems capable of providing both significant productivity increases and enhanced ecosystem services (IAASTD, 2009). Research supports this approach; a review of agricultural development projects in 57 low-income countries found that more efficient use of water, reduced use of pesticides and improvements in soil health led to average crop yield increases of 79 percent (Pretty et al., 2006). Another study concluded that agricultural systems that conserve ecosystem services by using practices such as conservation tillage, crop diversification, legume intensification and biological pest control, perform just as well as intensive high-input systems (Badgley et al., 2007; Power, 2010).

Regardless of the approach taken, in order to achieve their desired agricultural growth, sub-Saharan countries have to address enormous challenges, which include physical, political and socio-economic factors. Climate change has created an additional burden for the region (Kurukulasuriya, et al., 2006; Dinar, et al., 2008).

Summary

The production of coarse grains and wheat is expected to grow in 2014–2022, but at a slightly reduced rate. Coarse grains and wheat are forecast to increase by 27 percent to 121 million tonnes and by 39 percent to 6.4 million tonnes from 2014 to 2022.

Average annual growth rates for rice production are projected to be slightly higher in 2014–2022 than in the previous decade, 6.4 percent versus 5.9 percent. Ethiopia, South Africa and Mozambique are expected to more than double their production of rice.

Oilseed production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent, which is higher than in 2004–2013, with an increase from 9.9 million tonnes in 2014 to 12.2 million tonnes in 2022, a 27 percent increase.

The production of beef and veal is expected to grow at a higher average annual rate than in 2004–2013, at 3.6 percent per annum compared with 2.2 percent per annum in the previous decade.

The production of pork is expected to grow at a faster pace in 2014–2022 than in 2004–2013 (3.7 percent per annum versus 3.3 percent per annum on average) from 994 000 tonnes in 2014 to 1.3 million tonnes in 2022, a 31 percent increase.

The production of both poultry and sheep are forecast to grow at slower rates than was the case in the previous decade (slower by 0.7 percentage points to 3 percent per annum on average and by 1.2 percentage points to 2.2 percent per annum on average, respectively). However, poultry production is estimated to increase by 26 percent to 1.73 million tonnes in 2022, while sheep production is expected to increase by 18 percent to 2.6 million tonnes in 2022.

Sugar production is projected to grow at slightly lower rates than in 2004–2013 (3 percent per annum on average versus 3.3 percent per annum) and will increase by an estimated 32 percent to 9 million tonnes in 2022.

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Cotton production is estimated to grow at 5.1 percent per annum on average in 2014–2022compared with 1 percent per annum in 2004–2013.

5.3 Analysis

This publication has analysed economic aspects of current and future supply of and demand for food in sub-Saharan Africa. A number of demand drivers will lead to greater demand in sub-Saharan Africa for food and food products in coming years; they include population growth and demographic changes.

Owing to the persistence of very high fertility rates, population growth is expected to remain high, which may result in population growth of 31 percent from 918 million in 2013 to 1 217 billion in 2025 (Section 3). This means there will be almost 300 million additional consumers in 2025, which will create a significant increase in food demand. The expected increase in population is not uniform across countries.

In addition, there are currently (2011–13) 222.7 million undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, in 2010, the region had 414 million people living in what is classified as extreme poverty.

A number of demographic changes will influence demand. Although sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain the region with the youngest population structure throughout the period, population ageing will probably shift food consumption towards healthier products in certain countries. This trend would primarily affect countries with relatively higher incomes and a rapidly emerging middle class. These shifts in consumption are also expected in the other countries of the region, but to a smaller degree, primarily because of slower income growth and higher rates of poverty and undernourishment.

The increased proportion of educated people will affect demand from different angles. First, improved education is likely to have a positive impact on income. Second, it will increase the population’s awareness of the importance of a healthy diet. A shift in consumption towards healthier and more expensive food products is predicted in richer countries of the region such as South Africa and Namibia owing to the influence of healthy eating trends from developed countries.

Urbanization is expected to increase in sub-Saharan Africa, as in other parts of the world. This will involve a shift in consumption towards more processed and ready-made foods. In addition, growing urbanization lengthens the food supply chain. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa face a paucity or even complete lack of infrastructure for food storage and supply. Poor infrastructure leads to a substantial volume of food loss, but this is likely to decrease with improved roads and cold and dry storage facilities.

As reported in Section 3, per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.8 percent in the period 2013–2018. The increase in disposable income will translate into a shift in food consumption in all of the countries of the region. In low-income countries, people on average spend about half their income on food. As a large majority of the countries of the region are low-income countries, increases in income will be accompanied by almost proportional increases in food expenditure. Consequently, a greater shift in consumption is expected in the countries with high levels of undernourishment. In these countries, a proportionately higher increase in the levels of animal protein consumption is expected, as consumers increasingly substitute cheaper sources of nutrients such as cereals, roots and tubers. Nonetheless, significant portions of the population in Africa will remain undernourished in the future.

This will not only increase demand, but also lead to shifts in the composition of demand. Prices of many food products are likely to increase over time. Consumers’ response to this depends on own-price elasticities – demand for some products is more sensitive to price than for others (Section 3.4). In addition, relative prices are likely to change, which will also give rise to a change in the composition of demand.

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Consumer trends such as greater emphasis on food safety, health benefits, sustainability and traceability are expected to have a major impact on future food demand in industrialized countries (Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo, 2014). While these trends have little relevance for people who are undernourished or live in extreme poverty, they do have relevance for the growing middle class in Africa. Moreover, some countries are more affluent than others.

These trends will cause very considerable shifts in food demand, with food access presenting a growing challenge over the next two decades. Given the predicted parallel growth in incomes in the region and the consequent expected increase in per capita consumption, it is likely that food demand will increase beyond the level expected by population growth alone. In any event, food production systems including agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture will be placed under growing pressure in an already difficult setting of rising urbanization and environmental degradation.

Predicted population growth is expected to be higher than increased production from fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Consequently, in 2022, the region is expected to be less self-sufficient in terms of food production than compared with the current situation, as well as compared with other regions of the world. However, the overall increase in per capita income will affect overall food demand and potentially improve nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022. With regional self-sufficiency in decline, per capita consumption can only be maintained and increased through greater trade, i.e. imports from the rest of the world.

The projected increase in production and per capita consumption of rice in the region in 2022 is especially notable. However, as stated in OECD/FAO (2013), despite the large gains in rice production in Africa as a whole, even larger increases in consumption are expected to establish the region as the major focus for rice trade, absorbing more than half of the world’s traded quantity.

Per capita consumption of meat in the region is estimated to increase in 2022. Key drivers of meat demand are projected prices and income. As Section 3 suggests, per capita income is expected to increase in sub-Saharan Africa by 2022. According to OECD/FAO (2013), meat remains one of the fastest-growing foods in the world in terms of consumption among the major agricultural commodities, which on a per capita basis represents an increase of 6 percent relative to the base period 2010–13. Consumers from developing countries are projected to eat 84 percent of the additional meat produced worldwide in 2022, with per capita consumption increasing by 10 percent compared to 2010–13 (OECD/FAO, 2013).

Meat consumption is also determined by cultural habits and religious observances. Sub-Saharan Africa is largely Christian, with Muslim majorities in Djibouti, the Gambia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Consequently, the biggest gains in meat consumption are expected in beef, veal and pork in 2022. Notwithstanding the projected growth in the meat sector, meat production is still low compared with many developing countries in the world.

Increased vegetable oil production and rising per capita income are expected to lead to an average growth in food vegetable oil use. However, annual vegetable oil food use per capita is expected to average no more than 9.5 kg in LDC sub-Saharan Africa in contrast to the 19 kg in developing countries and 24–25 kg in developed countries (OECD/FAO, 2013).

Despite the overall increase in fish production in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022, substantial increases in fish consumption are not anticipated during the period in question. Population growth in sub-Saharan Africa will outstrip growth in the supply of fish, which is burdened by slow growth in aquaculture production. Projected fish price increases by 2022 will also adversely influence the growth in fish consumption and also have substitution effects.

Substantial gains in sugar consumption are projected in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the faster pace of sugar production in Africa compared with the world is still expected to be less than the growth in projected demand and thus is expected to continue the region’s sugar deficit status to 2022 (OECD/FAO, 2013).

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Projected gains in cotton production will not lead to substantial consumption of cotton in the region. According to OECD/FAO (2013), cotton consumption is very limited throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and many countries export virtually all of their production. It is projected that in 2022, LDC sub-Saharan Africa will replace India as the world’s second-largest cotton exporter with a world trade share of 14 percent in 2022.

5.4 Conclusion and possible policy directions

Growth in various subsectors of agriculture, including aquaculture and fisheries, is essential for economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and for achieving the MDG of reducing poverty and food insecurity in the region. Given that the bulk of agricultural output in sub-Saharan Africa consists of food commodities with exports accounting for less than 10 percent for many products, the agriculture and fisheries sectors play a very vital role in providing domestic food security. Although the growth rates of various food subsectors have improved in recent years, they are not rising fast enough to improve the food security situation in many sub-Saharan African countries. Agricultural productivities in sub-Saharan Africa are still among the lowest in the world. Therefore, a focus on higher and sustained growth in agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries is critical to contributing to economic development and food security in the region. The main policy implications coming from this report may be summarized in the following five points.

i. Investing more in agricultural research and extension

Research and associated enabling policy environments have been a major driver of higher productivity growth in the sub-Saharan African food sector. Many of these technologies came from research conducted by the 15 international agricultural research centres of the CGIAR consortium (formerly, the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research) in partnership with national agricultural research systems (NARS) in the region. Various studies show that the return on investment in agricultural research and development in sub-Saharan African countries is high (Dey et al., 2007; Fuglie and Rada, 2013). Empirical analysis conducted by Fuglie and Rada (2013) shows that for each dollar invested in technological improvement by CGIAR and NARS, an estimated USD6 and USD3, respectively, was returned.

There is a need for a dramatic increase in agricultural research investment and technology transfer capacity to provide farmers with appropriate technologies and to enhance their skills in order to be successful in achieving food and nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa. Among various subsectors, investments in aquaculture and fisheries research have been very inadequate and need to be increased substantially. National and international research organizations (such as WorldFish and other CGIAR centres) should expand research and development initiatives on aquaculture and fisheries. Briones et al. (2008) find that research on pond, coral and coastal ecosystems of sub-Saharan Africa is of very high priority.

ii. Improving land, water and input management and adapting to climate change

Although agricultural research and supporting policies have helped raise agricultural productivity in the region, other factors such as deteriorating natural resources and farm environments have constrained it. In the face of global climate change and the narrowing of resources, farmers must manage their land, water and pastures sustainably, and where appropriate, take a sustainable agricultural intensification approach. Such systems are very knowledge intensive, thus, policies for this approach should build capacity through extension approaches such as farmer field schools and facilitate local production of specialized farm tools.

Many fisheries in sub-Saharan Africa are overfished and face serious management challenges. There is an urgent need to make the best use of existing fisheries and aquatic resources. Post-harvest losses of fish, including discards and bycatch, have to be minimized. Some studies (for example, Wilson et al., 2010) found that properly designed co-management approaches to fisheries management could be quite effective in managing fisheries in sub-Saharan Africa. Resource managers and policy planners in

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the region may need to develop workable community-based and/or co-management models for sustainably managing their fisheries resources.

Many famers in the region do not have secure property rights over their land and natural resources, which discourages them from investing in resource improvements. Agricultural development strategies in the region should focus on land and resource conservation as well as productivity improvement. There is a need for policy and extension support to enable farmers to invest in land and water quality improvement and to adopt sustainable resource management practices. Moreover, policies to promote soil health should encourage conservation agriculture such as integrated agriculture–aquaculture, and mixed crop–livestock and agroforestry systems that enhance soil fertility.

Climate change impacts are already visible in the region, with water scarcity, soil and ocean acidification, and modification of the geographical distribution of fish species. In order to maintain the important contributions of agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, climate change adaptation strategies at various levels, from local to trans-national, are required. Increasing rain-fed productivity in the face of climate change will increase the importance of improved, drought tolerant plant varieties and management practices that save water. In aquaculture and fisheries, technological innovations can also be a good climate change adaptation strategy. For example, it is possible to have aquaculture of species that are more salinity tolerant. Fishers can also switch fishing gears, species and marketing channels to accommodate changing availability of fish species (Allison, Andrew and Oliver, 2007). Sub-Saharan African countries, with support from the international community, should engage in inclusive dialogues with all concerned stakeholders and analysts to build scenarios to understand possible impacts of climate change on food security and take necessary corrective measures.

iii. Expanding cross-country collaboration in technology development and dissemination

National agricultural research and extension systems in many sub-Saharan African countries are relatively small and do not have economies of scale in technology development and dissemination. This “small country” phenomenon reduces the net return to investment in both public and private agricultural research and development (Fuglie and Rada, 2013). There is a need for sub-Saharan countries to strengthen cross-country collaboration and exchange in technology development and dissemination. The NEPAD Agency and the FAO can play vital roles in promoting transfer of agricultural technologies, including aquaculture and fisheries, and natural resource management strategies across various countries in the region. Although aquaculture currently has a small base in sub-Saharan countries, there is strong interest among various agents in many countries to engage in this industry. Governments, other private and public stakeholders and international agencies such as the FAO should develop and implement collaboration among countries in the regions to encourage sharing and learning experience in aquaculture.

iv. Promoting sustainable intensification of agriculture and aquaculture

Boosting agricultural growth needed to improve food security in sub-Saharan Africa will probably require faster growth in both productivity improvement and sustainable intensification. Studies (for example, Christiaensen, Demery and Kuhl, 2011) have shown that intensive agriculture has strong and positive direct effects on the non-agriculture sector through backward and forward linkages (e.g. linkages to agroprocessing and input production). The idea of private commercial aquaculture and agriculture is currently gaining traction. Policy-makers should review the experience with such commercial aquaculture/agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere and explore how such successful experience may be replicated in their own country.

v. Facilitating agricultural markets and trade

For adopting new technology and practising intensive agriculture, farmers would probably require both favourable price (input and output prices) and non-price factors (improved access to markets, credit, improved agricultural terms of trade, among others). Moreover, reducing the transaction costs of access to credit for farmers will be urgently needed for investment. For a large number of crops and

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aquaculture/fisheries products, value chains are weak or non-existent in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Policy-makers need to explore how these value chains can be strengthened. Improved handling, preservation and processing are critical for perishable products such as fish. Intraregional trade within sub-Saharan Africa is likely to benefit both producers and consumers. Economic policy reforms that increase earnings of farmers and fishers would boost agricultural growth in the region.

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APPENDIXES

Table A1.1. Population of sub-Saharan Africa countries Country Population Area Population density

(thousands) (km2) (people/km2) Angola 18 565 1 246 700 12

Benin 9 877 112 622 0

Botswana 2 128 581 730 4

Burkina Faso 17 813 274 200 65

Burundi 1 061 27 830 38

Cameroon 22 535 475 440 47

Cabo Verde 531 4 033 132

Central African Republic 5 167 622 984 8

Chad 11 193 1 284 000 9

Comoros 752 2 235 337

Congo 75 507 342 000 13

Côte d’Ivoire 22 401 322 463 69

Democratic Republic of the Congo 4 574 2 344 858 32

Djibouti 792 23 200 34

Equatorial Guinea 704 28 051 25

Eritrea 6 234 117 600 53

Ethiopia 93 877 1 104 300 85

Gabon 1 640 267 667 6

Gambia 1 883 11 295 167

Ghana 25 200 238 533 106

Guinea 11 176 245 857 45

Guinea-Bissau 1 661 36 125 46

Kenya 44 038 580 367 76

Lesotho 1 936 30 355 64

Liberia 3 990 111 369 36

Madagascar 22 599 587 041 38

Malawi 16 778 118 484 142

Mali 15 969 1 240 192 13

Mauritania 3 438 1 030 700 3

Mauritius 1 322 2 040 648

Mozambique 24 097 799 380 30

Namibia 2 183 824 292 3

Niger 16 899 1 267 000 13

Nigeria 174 508 923 768 189

Rwanda 12 013 26 338 456

Sao Tome and Principe 187 964 194

Senegal 13 300 196 722 68

Seychelles 91 455 200

Sierra Leone 5 613 71 740 78

Somalia 10 252 637 657 16

South Africa 48 601 1 219 090 40

South Sudan 11 090 644 329 17

Sudan 34 848 1 861 484 19

Swaziland 1 403 17 364 81

Togo 7 154 56 785 126

Uganda 34 759 241 038 144

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Table A1.1. (continued) United Republic of Tanzania 48 262 947 300 51

Zambia 14 222 752 618 19

Zimbabwe 13 183 390 757 34

Total 918 004 24 293 352 n/a

Note: Population estimates 2013. Source: CIA (2014). Table A1.2 presents data on GDP and GDP per capita for each sub-Saharan Africa country as well as the country’s world ranking in terms of GDP per capita.

Table A1.2. GDP in sub-Saharan Africa countries (estimates 2012) Country GDP PPP

(USD billions) GDP per capita

PPP (USD) GDP per capita –

country comparison with the world

Angola 123.1 6 100 145 Benin 15.64 1 600 200 Botswana 32.27 15 700 83 Burkina Faso 24.57 1 400 204 Burundi 5.43 600 225 Cameroon 50.16 2 300 186 Cabo Verde 2.16 4 400 165 Central African Republic 3.849 900 219 Chad 26.58 2 500 182 Comoros 868 1 300 208 Congo 18.89 4 600 163 Côte d’Ivoire 39.88 1 700 197 Democratic Republic of the Congo 27.29 400 227 Djibouti 2.354 2 600 180 Equatorial Guinea 19.7 26 500 58 Eritrea 4.349 700 223 Ethiopia 109 1 300 207 Gabon 27.81 18 100 73 Gambia 3.409 1 900 194 Ghana 82.65 3 300 173 Guinea 12.04 1 100 215 Guinea-Bissau 1.911 1 200 211 Kenya 75 1 800 196 Lesotho 4.041 2 100 191 Liberia 2.645 700 222 Madagascar 21.18 900 218 Malawi 14.11 800 220 Mali 17.79 1 100 214 Mauritania 7.604 2 100 190 Mauritius 19.98 15 400 87 Mozambique 25.95 1 200 209 Namibia 16.82 7 800 134 Niger 12.99 800 221 Nigeria 444.3 2 700 179 Rwanda 15.02 1 400 203 Sao Tome and Principe 397 2 100 189 Senegal 26.29 2 000 193 Seychelles 1.018 25 000 60

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Table A1.2. (continued) Sierra Leone 7.97 1 300 206 Somalia 2.372 600 224South Africa 576.1 11 300 109 South Sudan 11.64 1 100 212 Sudan 85.42 2 500 181Swaziland 6.174 5 700 152 Togo 6.87 1 100 213 Uganda 50.77 1 400 205United Republic of Tanzania 73.12 1 600 199 Zambia 23.69 1 700 198Zimbabwe 7.167 600 226

Note: GDP estimates are for 2012 for all countries except Somalia, GDP of which was estimated in 2010. Source: CIA (2014).

Table A1.3. Least-developed countries (LDCs) of sub-Saharan Africa

LDC sub-Saharan Africa

Burundi

Comoros

Djibouti

Madagascar

Malawi

Eritrea

Rwanda

Somalia

Uganda

Lesotho

Angola

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Sao Tome and Principe

Equatorial Guinea

Benin

Gambia

Guinea

Liberia

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Guinea-Bissau

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Togo

Burkina Faso Source: FAO Fish Model (2013).

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