economic impact report 08

8/3/2019 Economic Impact Report 08

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30 JUNE 2008

ThE EcoNomic impacT of EXpoRT EDUcaTioN

prered b inetrs, NRB nd Sknnerstrteg

a REpoRT JoiNTly commiSSioNED By

EDUcaTioN NEw ZEalaND & miNiSTRy of EDUcaTioN


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Ts ubtn/resure ntns ter s

deeed t undng r te Exrt Edutn le

nd nged b Edutn Ne Zend n be te

mnstr Edutn ( crn)


1 1. SUmmaRy

2 Gssr

3 2. foREiGN STUDENT EXpENDiTURE

3 2.1 Student Exendture Sure

4 2.2 En it b Te Student

6 2.3 Errr rgns

6 2.4 En it b Ne Zend Regn

9 2.5 En it b Regn orgn

12 3. offShoRE pRoviSioN12 3.1 intrdutn

12 3.2 cnets

13 3.3 prder Sure

13 Denitions

16 3.4 En its

17 4. lESSoNS aND fURThER RESEaRch

17 4.1 furter use te exstng dtset

17 4.2 future Sures

17 4.3 osre prsn

18 appENDiX a

STUDENT EXpENDiTURE SURvEy

18 Sng

19 lengt St

19 irregur Exendture

20 mute insttutns

20 Srt St Students

21 Send hnd Gds

21 Ernngs n Ne Zend

22 appENDiX BEcoNomic impacT aNalySiS

22 intrdutn22 Te muter cnet

23 lnk t Ntn aunts

23 Deterntn muters

24 appENDiX c ESTimaTiNG REGioNal liviNGcoST EXpENDiTURE By TypE of

iNSTiTUTioN

26 appENDiX D

offShoRE pRoviSioN SURvEy


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1

a Rert cssned b Edutn Ne Zend nd mnstr Edutn

SUmmaRy1.

in 1999 te ntrbutn exrt edutn t grss dest rdut (GDp) s estted t $545. B 2001

ts d re tn dubed t $1.3 bn.1 in 2004 te estted ntrbutn d ssed te t bn dr

rk, t te ndustrs ue-dded estted t rxte $2.2 bn.

fr tese erer esttes sendng b regn ee-ng students s dered r bnng gener sures

oftertiarystudentexpenditure(withasmallsub-sampleofinternationalstudents),surveyscarriedoutatspecic

nsttutns, nterntn str sures nd used en sures. Nne ere bsed n dedted

sure exendture b regn ee-ng students nd exuded te sre rsn edutn

gds nd seres b Ne Zend nes nd edutn nsttutns. Ts rert ddresses bt tse

deciencies.

Te nuber regn ee-ng students s been n dnrd trend sne 2003. Neerteess, er

2007/08 te exrt edutn ndustr generted rund $2.3 bn regn exnge, $70 n

e r sre rsn. Te ndustrs ntrbutn t Ne Zends grss dest rdut s estted t

approximately$2.1billionafterallowingforow-oneffectstootherindustriesandleakagesoffshore.

Sur En it Exrt Edutn

Yeareconomic impact including offshore

education earnings*offshore education earnings

1999 $0.5 bn (estted) Nt serte esured



2007/2008 $2.1 bn (estted) $70 n (estted)

* En t s te ntrbutn t Grss Dest prdut. it nudes tutn ees, ng exendture b students,offshoreeducationearnings,andow-oneffectsthroughthewidereconomy.

mst te reenue r sre rsn es r te se ressn seres su s teng,

trnng, urruu deeent, qut ssurne, nsutng nd dsr seres. cn s te n sure

tese ernngs.

cn s s te rgest untr rgn regn ee-ng students, untng r 24,800 ut 91,300

students. Sut Kre s t 17,900 students.

B setr, Engs nguge ss unted r te rgest gru 33,700, but n te students re rt-

te. in ters u te equent (fTE) students unerstes nsttute te rgest setr. Ts s kes

unerst students te rgest sure regn exnge ernngs but 31% te tt.

fr te exrt edutn ndustr s e (students us sre rsn), te stn ts tt

ntrbutn t grss dest rdut s sn ere.

1 inetrs (2000) En it anss fregn fee-png Students, rert t Edutn interntn mrketng Netrk & as

2000 fundtn. and inetrs (2002) En it interntn Edutn, er rered r EimN.


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2


fgure 1. Tt cntrbutns t GDp b Exrt Edutn Setr

prr 5.1%

Sendr 14.9%

Unerstes 32.1%

ptens 10.0%

pTE 10.4%

ElS 23.5%

osre 4.0%

GloSSaRy

Trugut ts rert rus esures te sze te exrt edutn ndustr re used:

Tt student sendng sendng b regn ee-ng students n Ne Zend n tutn ees nd ng

sts.

fregn exnge ernngs te grss unt regn exnge erned b te ndustr, rsng

sendng b regn ee-ng students tt s sured r sre. Tus t exudes sendng tt s

ttrbutbe t te Ne Zend ernngs regn students. it nudes ernngs r sre edutn

ttes tt rue t Ne Zenders r Ne Zend enttes.

cntrbutn t grss dest rdut (GDp), r ue-dded s te net ntrbutn tt te exrt edutn

ndustr kes t Ne Zends GDp. it s equ t te grss regn exnge ernngs ess dret rts (su

s rted text bks) nd ess ndret rts (su s te dese used b trnsrt nes t trnsrt

te gds tt students bu r suerrkets).

cntrbutn t GDp s uted b ddng ue-dded (ents t bur nd t, nd ndret txes)

eer ndustr tt dret r ndret sues gds nd seres t exrt edutn. Ts strs ut te

dube untng su s ere te t used t rdue grent s unted b bt te t nuturer

nd b te grent nuturer s rt ter grss utut. mre det s gen n aendx B.


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3


foREiGN STUDENT EXpENDiTURE2.

STUDENT EXpENDiTURE SURvEy2.1

Dt eted b te mnstr Edutn n nnetn t te Exrt Edutn le rdes esttes :

te nuber ffp students b setr

te st tutn b setr

CombiningthiswiththeresultsoftherstdedicatedsurveyofexpenditurebyFFPstudentsyieldsthefollowing

esttes exendture n tutn nd ng sts. Dets te sure nd ts nss re gen n aendx a.

Tbe 1 Exendture b fregn fee-png Students (net NZ ernngs)

schools public tertiarY private english

primarY secondarY universities polYtechnics tertiarY language total

Nuber Students N. 4,109 11,465 21,136 10,007 10,942 33,662 91,321

EfTS fTE 2,391 8,401 16,218 5,575 5,858 8,119 46,562

Tutn $ 22.6 95.7 273.7 64.4 58.7 81.9 596.8

ees $ 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.9

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 5,450 8,302 1,2892 6,405 5,335 2,420 6,504

$/fTE 9,365 11,330 16,801 11,498 9,965 10,034 12,757

aerge ng st $/ 22,144 18,243 19,364 17,873 17,262 15,688

Send nd gds $/ 37 266 938 1,079 765 650

irts $/ 3,662 3,113 3,137 2,968 2,504 2,292

indret tx $/ 2,290 1,867 2,017 1,822 1,803 1,583

Net $/ 16,155 12,997 13,272 12,005 1,2191 11,163

Tt ng sts $ 91.0 209.2 409.3 178.9 188.9 528.1 1,605.3

Tt fregn Exnge $ 113.5 304.8 683.0 243.3 247.5 610.0 2,202.1

% 5.2% 13.8% 31.0% 11.0% 11.2% 27.7% 100.0%

indret tx & ees $ 12.4 33.9 78.1 26.6 27.3 63.9 242.1

Te dret regn exnge ernngs ttrbutbe t regn students tt n estted $2.2 bn tt s

ner te $2.3 bn rerted n te Sur, nuded ernngs r sre rsn. See

Setn 3. Te $2.2 bn rses tutn ees just under $600 nd exendture n ter gds nd

seres (ng sts) $1.6 bn. hg tutn ees en tt unerst students unt r re tn

tt exendture n tutn, but Engs nguge students, b egt nubers, unt r st te

ggregte ue sendng n ng sts s unerst students.

Te g ng st exendture ttrbuted t rr s students s used b t trs: tutn sts er

nd be s ees su s r extr Engs, us essns et ( re nuded n ng sts), nd te

requreent tt regn students ged 13 r under (t se rre exetns r tse er 10) ust e t

rent r gurdn, ng tt n te ng sts r ts gru tu rete t t ee.

Gen te rete srt st Engs nguge students ter erge sendng n ng sts sees g.

Se su students rgress t tertr edutn ter ttendng nd ESl, s t s ssbe tt ter ng st

expendituredoesnotentirelypertaintotheirtimeatanESL.Studentsareclassiedaccordingtotheirself-

seeted n nsttutn stud.

Nte tt tere s n ne r ssted sendng b stng rends nd retes students

e r grdutn erenes r t e students t set u t te strt te de er. Te suresuggest but 11.0 str ngts er student, ng rxte 1.0 n str ngts n tt. at $129/

d2theadditionalforeignexchangeearningsisaround$130m.Thisiscountedinofcialstatisticsasrevenue

r regn turs.

2 Sure: mnstr Turs Ke Turs Sttsts, august 2008


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4


EcoNomic impacT By TypE of STUDENT2.2

Theow-oneconomicimpactsofexporteducationareestimatedusingthecommonlyacceptedmultiplier

r. Te net n en uter s exned n aendx B.

muters r regn ee-ng students n Ne Zend re dered b egtng nddu ndustr utersb te stn exendture, dsggregted b te edutn nsttutn.3

muters re nt ed t te GST nd edutn e nents student exendture. Ts s beuse

te uters re nt sstted enug t ture te gernent tes ts tx reenue, nr te

dedegt en ss ssted t txtn.

Te resuts re sn n Tbe 2.

oUTpUT aND valUE-aDDED

Te bse ee grss utut, beng exendture ess ekges n te r dret rts nd txes, s $1.7

billion.Thisgureconstitutesthebasisofthemultiplieranalysis.

a urter $1.3 bn grss utut s generted n ustre ndustres tt su nuts t te Exrt

Edutn ndustres; r exe nuts energ t edutn nsttutns. anter $1.0 bn ndued

turner s generted b te sendng ges nd sres erned b ee eed n Exrt Edutn nd

tse eed n te ndustres su Exrt Edutn. Nte tt te ndued eet s subsues

ofthenextandsubsequentwavesofindirectandinducedeffectswhichariseoutoftherstwaveofinduced

eets.

atug te grss utut uter r Exrt Edutn rses te nt eet r $1.7 bn t $4.0 bn,

ts des nt equte t te eet n GDp. Strng ut te dube untng ees tt ntrbutn t GDp

$2.0 bn (nudng $240 txes nd ees). cnetu ts s dent t te $2.1 bn entned n

te Sur, but t exudes te ntrbutn r sre rsn.

Ts reresents but 1.2% tt GDp. in 1999 regn edutn s estted t e unted r n 0.5%

GDp.

oter ndustres t rbe ntrbutn t GDp re hrtuture t 0.8%, Dr frng t 1.3%,

wd pressng t 0.8%, Bs mets t 1.0% nd persn Seres t 1.3%. Edutn n tt unts r

but 3.7%.4

3 Te uters ertn t 2005/06 nd ere uted b Buter prtners.

4 Dt s r 2005/06, test be, Sttsts Ne Zend.


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5


Tbe 2 En it fregn fee-png Students



Nuber Students N. 4,109 11,465 21,136 10,007 10,942 33,662 91,321

Exendture (ex tx, ees & dret rts)

Tutn $ 22 95 272 64 58 81 594

lng csts $ 66 149 281 120 133 376 1,125

89 244 553 184 192 457 1,719

lbur / Grss outut N./$ 9.2 11.0 7.6 6.3 6.6 5.7

vue-added/Grss outut $/$ 0.47 0.52 0.46 0.42 0.42 0.39

Eent N. 816 2,697 4,212 1,163 1,263 2,606 12,759

vue-added $ 42 126 257 78 80 179 762

muters - Te i

Grss outut 1.71 1.66 1.77 1.78 1.80 1.81

Eent 1.82 1.72 2.02 2.25 2.22 2.23 vue-added 1.71 1.64 1.73 1.79 1.81 1.86

muters - Te ii

Grss outut 2.32 2.29 2.37 2.33 2.35 2.31

Eent 2.26 2.13 2.54 2.85 2.79 2.80

vue-added 2.27 2.19 2.31 2.33 2.36 2.38

att b Te i muters

Grss outut $ 152 404 977 328 346 829 3,036

Eent N. 1,486 4,650 8,490 2,620 2,807 5,804 25,857

vue-added $ 71 207 445 140 146 333 1,342

att b Te ii muters

Grss outut $ 206 559 1313 430 450 1,057 4,015

Eent N. 1845 5,747 10,719 3,314 3,531 7,288 32,444

vue-added $ 94 276 592 182 190 427 1,762

indret tx & ees $ 12 34 78 27 27 64 242

vue-added + tx & ees $ 107 310 670 209 217 491 2,004

% 5.3% 15.5% 33.4% 10.4% 10.8% 24.5% 100.0%

EmploymENT

Eent dret ttrbutbe t regn student exendture s rund 12,800 u te equent stns.

muter eets rse ts t but 32,400. o te dret eet, but 59% s unted r b te edutn

ndustr. Tus ne ud tt r eer jb generted dret n te edutn ndustr (trug ng

regn ee-ng students n Ne Zend) nter 3.29 fTE jbs re generted eseere - rxte 0.69

jbs n ndustres dret su gds nd seres su s d nd trnsrt t students, nter 1.73

jbs n ndustres su tse ndustres nd te edutn ndustr, nd nter 0.87 n te ndustres

whichbenetfromtheincreasedconsumerspendingpowerassociatedwithalloftheothernewemployment.

Eent n te edutn setr s uted b ng bur-utut rts t te ue tutn

exendture. Ts ed resnbe estte dret eent n regn student s nt beng

sked t r re er unt sere deeredtn gernent rdes r dest student, nd te

ee s bsed n erge sts. Te itsed rds re rtnt. a ger ee be rged tut etng

te dt te utns regn student tu sts re t te, su s nguge brrers

requre ddtn tutn r regn students t sendr ss


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6


ERRoR maRGiNS2.3

Se netu ssues rund esttng ng st exendture r snst sure re dsussed n

AppendixA.Brieytheseare:

esureent rregur exendture nd ernngs,

under-sng srt-st students,

tretent exendture n send-nd gds,

ttendne t re tn ne te nsttutn n tee nt erd.

Sures Errr nd arxte Szes

effect on total spend comment

irregur exendture


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7


Tbe 3 Students nd Tutn fees b Ne Zend Regn Stud



auknd

Nuber Students N. 2,554 5,595 9,263 3,722 7,645 20,850 49,629

Tutn $ 13.9 51.6 110.9 23.4 24.6 66.0 290.3

ees $ 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 5,424 9,174 11,916 6,258 3,196 3,149 5,822

wengtn

Nuber Students N. 114 711 2,829 761 504 268 5,187

Tutn $ 0.6 5.7 29.7 11.7 1.6 0.7 50.0

ees $ 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 5,219 7,916 10,448 15,356 3,080 2,779 9,594

oter Nrt isnd

Nuber Students N. 537 2,151 3,894 2,460 1,301 2,475 12,818Tutn $ 2.6 15.6 64.9 16.5 5.9 11.2 116.7

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 4,829 7,217 16,590 6,691 4,498 4,501 9,063

cnterbur

Nuber Students N. 851 1,738 3,239 1,500 1,385 8,072 16,785

Tutn $ 5.1 14.8 38.5 8.1 3.6 21.0 91.0

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 5,941 8,474 11,819 5,344 2,576 2,584 5,392

oter Sut isnd

Nuber Students N. 53 1,270 1,911 1,564 107 1,997 6,902

Tutn $ 0.2 8.2 29.8 4.7 0.2 5.8 48.9

ees $ 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

aerge tutn (ex e) $/ 4,019 6,387 15,521 2,969 2,122 2,904 7,050

Tt regn exnge (sendng nt sured r ne erned n Ne Zend) s $2.36 bn, s

$159 re tn n Tbe 1. Te dsren es but rr beuse te sure s nt sutneus

stratiedbybothinstitutionandregion,andbecauseoftheshort-staycorrectionfactors(seeAppendixA).As

te tter re re geneus r tes nsttutn tn r regns, te Tbe 1 estte $2.20 bn s

re rebe tn te $2.36 bn.

in ters bt student nubers nd ntrbutn t regn ue-dded (GDp) te auknd regn er

dntes, t sres 54.3% nd 54.1% resete. wt be erge sendng n ng sts nd greter tn erge nentrtn unerst students, wengtn unts r rger sre ue-dded

t 6.2% tn ts 5.7% students gt suggest. hg ng sts n wengtn ud s be tr. Te

nerse ts resut s tt ter students, ntb tse n cnterbur nd te rest te Sut isnd send

ess tn te erge.

Itwillbeseenthattotalvalue-added(withTypeIImultipliereffects)acrosstheveregionsis$1.54billion,

red t $2.00 bn n Tbe 2. Te derene $500 s te unt tt s st trug ur nbt t

trk nter-regn trde. we n nterret ts s beng te ete ntrbutn t regn GDp tt rgntes

fromotherregions.Inotherwords,almostaquarterofexpenditurebyforeignfee-payingstudentsbenets

regns ter tn ere te student s studng.


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8


Tbe 4 En it fregn fee-png Students b Ne Zend Regn Stud

auck Wgtn other ni cant other si total nZ

Nuber Students N. 49,629 5,187 12,818 16,785 6,902 91,321

aerge ng st $/ 21,207 16,256 16,802 17,253 17,709

Send nd gds $/ 798 471 689 524 784

irts $/ 5,880 4,835 4,779 4,134 4,858

indret tx $/ 2,160 1,710 1,722 1,771 1,832

Net $/ 12,369 9,241 9,612 10,825 10,235

Tt fregn Exnge $ 1,342.8 134.3 332.1 380.6 171.1 2,360.9


Tutn $ 289 50 116 91 49 594

lng csts $ 614 48 123 182 71 1,037

903 98 239 272 119 1,631

lbur / Grss outut N. /$ 7.0 8.2 8.0 7.3 7.6

vue-added / Grss outut $/$ 0.41 0.46 0.45 0.42 0.42

Eent N. 6,275 798 1,916 1,981 906 11,875

vue-added $ 367 45 108 113 50 682

muters - Te i

Grss outut 1.55 1.50 1.51 1.59 1.49

Eent 1.54 1.52 1.69 1.69 1.64

vue-added 1.51 1.44 1.49 1.59 1.49

muters - Te ii

Grss outut 1.93 1.87 1.87 2.01 1.83

Eent 1.82 1.78 1.98 2.03 1.91

vue-added 1.88 1.79 1.83 2.01 1.82

att b Te i muters

Grss outut $ 1,396 146 361 434 178 2,515

Eent N. 9,632 1,215 3,237 3,357 1,488 18,930

vue-added $ 554 65 160 181 75 1034

att b Te ii muters

Grss outut $ 1,744 183 449 548 219 3,143

Eent N. 11,411 1,420 3,801 4,028 1,727 22,386

vue-added $ 690 80 197 227 91 1,286

indret tx & ees $ 145 15 37 41 19 258

vue-added + tx & ees $ 834 96 234 269 110 1,543


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9


EcoNomic impacT By REGioN of oRiGiN2.5

Table5presentssummarydataforvecountries/regionoforiginChina,SouthKorea,Japan,otherAsiancountries

nd ter untres.5

Tbe 5 Students nd Tutn fees b Regn orgn



cn

Nuber Students N. 101 1,858 9,757 3,751 4,825 4,462 24,754

Tutn $ 0.6 15.5 126.4 24.1 25.9 10.9 203.3

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9

Sut Kre

Nuber Students N. 3,028 3,938 1,240 865 1,572 7,261 17,904

Tutn $ 16.6 32.9 16.1 5.6 8.4 17.7 97.2

ees $ 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5

Jn

Nuber Students N. 61 1,715 1,050 959 813 7,638 12,236

Tutn $ 0.3 14.3 13.6 6.2 4.4 18.6 57.3

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3

oter as

Nuber Students N. 130 1,341 761 2,291 2,870 3,770 11,163

Tutn $ 0.7 11.2 9.9 14.7 15.4 9.2 61.1

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3

oter

Nuber Students N. 789 2,613 8,328 2,141 842 10,531 25,244

Tutn $ 4.3 21.8 107.8 13.8 4.5 25.6 177.9

ees $ 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8

angus t te regn dt, te sure s desgned t btn se degree dsggregtn student

exendture b untr rgn, but nt sutneus b te edutn nsttutn (nr b Ne Zend

regn stud).

Te tt nuber students ders rgn r tt n Tbe 1 due t se nn-rertng untr

rgn. hene dr tts re s sgt er.

as exeted cn rdes te snge gest nuber students b r, t te send rgest rket, Sut

Kre, n turn ng substnt ed er Jn, te trd rgest rket (t est n 2007). Students rnn-asn untres ete tt n e re tn te nuber r cn ne.

we te mnstrs dtbse n dent te nuber students b te edutn nsttutn rss

classiedbycountryoforigin,tuitionfeesandleviescannotbesimultaneouslycross-classiedasnon-SDR

rders d nt rert n tse tree densns (ee, untr nd nuber students) sutneus.

cnsequent e ssue tt e student s te erge ee rged b e te nsttutn, rresete

ter untr rgn. obus ees d nt deend n untr rgn, but te erge ee b untr

rgn r n gen te nsttutn ud r derent ntntes enr n derent urses r r derent

te erds.

Tbe 6 ss te resuts ts esttn, ng t te estted uter eets.

5 OtherAsiaisdenedasAfghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei,Cambodia,EastTimor,India,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,Maldives,

mng, mnr, Ne, Nrt Kre, pkstn, pnes, Sngre, Sr lnk, Tn, Tjkstn, Tnd, vetn.


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10


Tbe 6 En it b Regn orgn

china

south

korea Japan

other

asia

other

countries total nZ

Nuber Students N. 24,754 17,904 12,236 11,163 25,244 91,301

aerge ng st $/ 17,870 22,898 12,169 15,478 18,277

Send nd gds $/ 931 500 380 574 893

irts $/ 2,710 3,495 2,150 2,709 2,688

indret tx $/ 1,825 2,354 1,225 1,609 1,892

Net $/ 12,403 16,549 8,414 10,587 12,804

Tt fregn Exnge $ 645.6 507.2 206.2 233.8 639.3 2,232.1


Tutn $ 202 97 57 61 177 594

lng csts $ 307 296 103 118 323 1,148

509 393 160 179 500 1,742

lbur / Grss outut N./$ 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.6

vue-added / Grss outut $/$ 0.45 0.42 0.44 0.43 0.44

Eent N. 3,687 2,652 1,155 1,322 3,779 12,595

vue-added $ 228 167 71 77 220 762

muters - Te i

Grss outut 1.77 1.78 1.76 1.78 1.78

Eent 2.07 2.02 1.96 2.10 2.12

vue-added 1.77 1.80 1.77 1.80 1.79

muters - Te ii

Grss outut 2.35 2.33 2.33 2.35 2.35

Eent 2.61 2.54 2.47 2.64 2.66

vue-added 2.34 2.35 2.33 2.36 2.35

att b Te i muters

Grss outut $ 902 700 282 319 892 3,095

Eent N. 7,632 5,361 2,268 2,781 8,011 26,053

vue-added $ 403 300 125 139 394 1361

att b Te ii muters

Grss outut $ 1,198 918 373 420 1,178 4,087

Eent N. 9,615 6,727 2,850 3,492 10,059 32,743

vue-added $ 531 392 164 182 518 1,787

indret tx & ees $ 71 55 22 26 71 245

vue-added + tx & ees $ 603 447 187 208 588 2,032

Totalforeignexchangeearningsareestimatedat$2.23billion,whichcomparesveryfavourablywiththegureof

$2.20 bn n Tbe 1.

muters der b untr rgn nt just beuse derent ntntes e derent exendture

tterns, but s beuse derent ntntes rednte n derent rts te edutn sste. fr

exe u ger rrtn cnese students ttend unerst tn s te se r Sut Kren

students, re re nentrted n ss. Ne Zend regn stud gt s be tr tt ets

te stn exendture.

in ters ntrbutn t ntn ue-dded (GDp) te cnese s nrr te rgest t 29.7%, red

toitsshareofstudentnumbersof27.1%,reectinghigherthanaverageexpenditureperstudent.SouthKoreas n sr stn, untng r 22.0% ue-dded, but n 19.6% student nubers. Te g

nentrtn Sut Kren students n rr ss, nd te ed ger sendng beuse te

requreent tt te e t rent r gurdn (see be), s ke t be drng ts resut.


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11


Students r Jn nd oter as send ess tn erge. agn ts s ke t be used rr b

derenes n nsttutn stn nd engt st tn b se nerent ntn derenes n sendng

renst.

Tt ue-dded (ter Te ii uter) eets $2.03 bn s just be te $2.00 bn estted n

Tbe 2, s er gd resut. Tt s, tug te sure sze s nresed t rdue rebe esttes exendture b regn rgn nd b te nsttutn, gen te rus redures r djustng r engt

st, underunt srt-st students nd s n, te rresndene s st enurgng. Nte tt te

s nuber students dd nt rerd untr rgn ud suggest tt te derene (tug

extree s) sud be n te ter dretn.


14/30

12


offShoRE pRoviSioN3.

iNTRoDUcTioN3.1

in reent ers tere s been grt n trnsntn edutn tt n ddtn t te rerutng erners

whotraveltoNewZealandsshores.Therecanbelittledoubtthatthisisareectionofashrinkingworldand

de regntn Ne Zends exertse n edgg, urruu, qut sstes, ernng resures nd

nsutn.

Ts tt s been resered t te bjet quntng ts t n te Ne Zend en. we

believethisistherstsuchstudy.Weencounteredsomechallengesindenition,identifyingparticipantsanddata

gterng, but t s been dered s strt nd ntns u b ernng r subsequent studes.

Ourobservation,notsubstantiatedbyempiricaldata,isthattherstushofenterprisingandopportunist

trnsntn edutn rjets s n er. Tere ered t be ruset tttude t deeng ne nes

een tug res r te kes cn nd ind bund. Ne Zend n be enterng se

re strteg es, bsed n esbt studes, busness se nses nd eete due dgene.

coNcEpTS3.2

TheclassicationsystemusedinternationallytorecordtheBalanceofPaymentsdistinguishesfourmodesoftrade

n seres:

mde 1: rss-brder su su s en suers seres n ne untr su seres t

nsuers n nter untr tut eter suer r nsuer ng nt te terrtr te ter.

mde 2: nsutn brd, desrbes te ress b nsuer resdent n ne untr es

t nter untr t btn sere.

mde 3: er resene, ere enterrses su seres nterntn trug te ttes

theirforeignafliatesabroad.

mde 4: resene ntur ersns, ere te rduer es t te untr te nsuer t

rde te sere.

fregn ee-ng students n Ne Zend e nt mde 2. Te sre rsn edutn seres ud

be under n te ter tree des.

Sttsts Ne Zend undertkes n nnu sure exrts seres sued sre, but n

dsggregtn t reset t te de s be. Estted exrts edutn seres r te st sx

ers re sn n Tbe 7, nd rse edutn nsutn seres, rresndene urses nd reenue

r teers/eturers brd r ess tn tee nts.

Tbe 7 osre prsn (SNZ)

$m

2002 6.7

2003 10.2

2004 16.7

2005 21.3

2006 17.9

2007 25.5


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13


pRoviDER SURvEy3.3

DEfiNiTioNS

WedeneeducationexportactivityoffshoreasbeingthatwhichearnsforeignexchangereturnedtoNew

Zend, utsde rerutent regn students re unted n Setn 3. Ts des nt reude sentrt rk s negtted t, nd bed t regn ent s er ntrt, but be

deered n Ne Zend.

a gener st su ttes enuntered durng ts sure nudes:

osre deer teng nd ernng, bt n srt ter kges r s e r rt degree,

diplomaorcerticateprogrammes.

Dstne deer te be eetrn r rresndene ens (but nn-EfTS genertng).

Ses urruu, nteetu rert, sstes, stre nd ernng ters.

ContractstobringforeigngroupstoNewZealandforeducationandtrainingincludingedutourism.

Edutn nsutng nd dsr rk.

Reser nd erstn edutn gds nd seres

audt, dertn, ssessent nd qut ntr rk.

hstng stud turs, deegtns nd rstn sts.

inuded n te sure ere edutn-reted enttes nudng unerstes, nsttutes teng nd

tens (iTps), ss, nes nudng rte trnng enterrses (pTEs) nd Engs nguge

schools,industryTrainingOrganisations(ITOs),trustsandnot-for-prots(NFPs).Bothstateandprivatesector

ere nuded.

mn e ttes tt re bsed n ersn r nsttutn retnss desgned t ster es rtutn,

srss, tnnng nd exnges. in te jrt tese ses tere s st, but n edte reenue.

artutn nd tnnng, s t srss nd een exnges, re seen s sund nterntnstn

tts s e s ss-edng nterntn enrent strteg. Te re seen s stutng regur nd

denednumbersofstudentstostudywiththeNewZealandproviderafteraninitialoneortwoyearsinthehome

rder nsttutn. Su strteges re ten used n surng te st rsng students bt s ed-

enrents nd s tent Ne Zend resdents.

SURvEy mEThoDoloGy

identng busnesses nd nsttutns te n sre rk s neessr rerequste t sureng. in te

absenceofdenitiverecordsofactiveeducationexporters,aprocessofeliminationwasemployedonawidebase

enttes.

oer 1300 ss, ese tse regstered s sgntres t te pstr re interntn Students cde

prte, st-sendr edutn nsttutns, ub nd rte, nes, sstns nd ressn

etes ere sked t dent te d sre tt. E requests ere de t er 1800 reents.

mng ntts ere de be b te mnstr Edutn, Edutn Ne Zend, Ne Zend Trde

nd Enterrse, ersn knedge nd te dtbses grus nd sstns ke Bk pubsers nd NZ

asstn prte Edutn prders.

Fromthoserespondentstherewere37whosoughtclaricationontheiractivitiesandthekeycriterionfor

inclusionwasdenedaswhethergrossforeignexchangewasbeingearnedbyNewZealandfromtheoffshore

su r deer.

Somerespondentsoptedintothesurveyonlytondthesubsequentquestionnairedidnotapplytowhatthey

dd. Gen tt tere s n ress requestng n return, e nnt dsrnte beteen n returns nd n


16/30

14


returns. Se resndents nused sre reenue-genertng tt t rerutng nterntn students

r Ne Zend, but tese ere ented r ts rt te sure. Extense -u rk s de t

e nteres, e rresndene nd teene s.

Resns r nn-resnse ere gen s:

Condentiality,althoughrespondentswereassuredofcondentialityandaggregationoftheirdatainto

largersetstoavoidspecicrecognitionbytheclientorreaderoftheresearchreport.Surprisingly,the

rte setr s gener ess nerned but ts tn te stte setr.

Reutne t nterrgte n untng sste nt desgned t render su dt es.

Beng t bus.

Havingrespondedtofourorvesurveysrecentlyandsufferingsurveyfatigue.

N surt r te reser. (Reserers tred t exn te rtne Ne Zend gettng

esure just rtnt exrt edutn s t te ntn en, et ne n

nterntnsng uture.)

Bnng tese es, ters ent t gret engts t extrt dt r ex sstes nd t ge te

exerse se rrt beuse te regnsed te strteg ue nd ntent.

interes, bt e nd b ne, ere nduted t 27 te enttes t exnd n te gener nture

ter ttes sre. Te questnnre be und n aendx D.6

Se enttes returned dt r rjets just begnnng, tut ng strted trdng r nt etng u

er. oters ted reus sre rjets d n esed. as te sure s bunded b dt r

te st reent 12 nt erd be (st ten endr er 2007), nuber tese returns ere

ented r te dt set.

Ofthe65entitiesidentiedashavingoffshoreearningsfromoneormoreoftheactivitiesdenedabove,37

rded dt returns (57%).

Deste n exuste ert t dent ers t s entre ssbe tt ters exst nd ere bsent r

te sure utn. Een n te te stges te sure ne enttes ere eergng. Tese nsdertns,

andbecausethereiswidevariationofscalewithinthesampleandwithinthetotalidentiedpopulation,mean

tt t s nt nsdered d t sek reresentte se r t extrte grss ernngs nd ter

errne t n ertnt.

fiNDiNGS

Beuse te se s rbb nt exuste te resuts re ke t understte te extent sre

provision.Nevertheless,ourassessmentisthatourestimateislikelytobewithin10%ofthetruegure.The

errr rgn n te esttes rded b resndents s rbb sr rder gntude, nd tederent untng ers used b resndents ens tt nrng urte esttes n rtur 12 nt

erd s ssbe.

hene te resuts sud be nterreted s rebe but rese estte te sze te sre rsn

ndustr n 2007/08.

as sn n Tbe 8, te se sre tt s er $100, t net regn exnge ernngs $70.

we SNZ utn tt ter estte s ke t be n understteent, t s ssbe tt nr tng derenes

ud be turng rge ne- eents, s te gntude derene beteen te esttes nt be

reresentte ter ers. as se te stre nd nteetu rert s n te r bks, n

se SNZ ud (teret) ture te s gds exrts.

6 we rgn ensged re deted questnnre, but t testng sed er need t kee resndent burden t nu.


17/30

15


Tbe 8 osre prsn ($)

gross income softWare & ip prof services licence etc fees net forex

cn 65.9 5.5 59.7 0.8 46.1

Unerst 24.4 0.6 21.5 2.4 22.7

iTp 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3

pTE 15.6 7.9 7.6 0.0 0.7

iTo 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1

Tt 106.9 14.0 89.7 3.3 69.9

attes

mst sre tt b r s n te su ressn seres. Tese rnge r teng, trnng,

urruu deeent, qut ssurne, nsutng nd dsr seres. Next rgest s te stre nd

nteetu rert tegr, nudes edutn bks; n rtur tse surtng redng nd junr

edutn.

in rge rgnstns, ntb unerstes, tere s nsderbe reser nd nsutn rk sre. our

nteres sertned tt dentng su tt ented nss tt n rder s be r ng t

ursue.

cnsutng n be rte rrngeent beteen de nd ent, nd s ten tred nt te de

workload.Itwasfoundtobedifculttoisolateandmeasurewhereitprovidedearningstotheentityorwas

creditedtotheindividual.Forthesereasonssuchearningsarenotidentiedforthiswork.Researchinvolving

sureng nddu st be te n esurng ts nent.

Se nd vret

Te se ertns res de, r s nttes turnng er e tusnd drs, t ut-n

dr, ut-rjet nes. Just tree enttes unt r just er te grss reenue uted nd sx

enttes r 88% tt reenue.

Ser rjet tt sre s und t be sed u esured nd ntred. mn rjets re

deeed nd dnstered tn exstng strutures nd resures, t ssted sts nt ted t te

rjet tse. on n te rger nd nger-runnng ses e rjets reed te se ere te e n

identiablecostcentrewithcostsbeingallocatedtoit.

Entt Tes

Te rte setr dntes grss regn exnge ernngs. in unerstes st te ernngs re b -

ned enterrse subsdres. crn-ned regn exnge ernng tt n sre edutn s neggbe.

cuntres

Ne Zend s te n sre gds nd seres deer n de rnge untres. as dntes te

reportedactivity,but19countrieswerementionedbyrespondents,reectingconsiderablediversicationin

rkets. See fgure 2.

ct inestent

Just under $NZ2.5 n s nested sre n t ssets ngst just ur enttes. it n be nerred

tt st ter edutn deer tt ned esng, ntrtng r rtners r te use nd nd

budngs, equent r ter ssets.


18/30

16


on ne Ne Zend entt tu ned nd r budngs sre nd d nested nsderbe t n

tese ssets. in st edutn deer sstns te regn rtner rdes t nestent nd te

NewZealandcomponentislikelytobesoft(expertise,curriculum,methodology,systems).

fgure 2 Nuber Tes cuntr mentned

EcoNomic impacTS3.4

Tbe 9 es set en uters t te net regn exnge ernngs r sre rsn. it s

difculttodecidewhichsetofindustrymultipliersisappropriateastheactivityactuallyundertakenorprovided

sre nt be te se s te dest sts tt re set gnst te regn exnged erned. fr

exe, n nsttutn se edutn stre t nter untr, but te deeent sts nurred n

Ne Zend k qute derent r te st struture t ten r unerst.

Gen te errr rgns n te dt, t ud be es t dese set surus urte uters. Tus

e e uted ste set ndustr uters r tree ndustres: prntng nd pubsng, oter

Busness Seres, nd Nn-usr Edutn Seres, t egts 25%, 25% nd 50% resete.

Thedirectnetforeignexchangecontributionof$70mhasarstroundvalue-addedcomponentof$38m.

Ustre rdutn ndues nter $23 ue-dded, t nsutn ndued eets genertng nter

$22. Ts brngs te tt ntrbutn t Ne Zends GDp r sre rsn t $83. Eent

ttrbutn s but 1200 fTE jbs.

cn

austrl

cnd

ind

m

lys

in

dnes

on

Tlnd

USa

Sngre

vetnfj

Sudarb

ck

islnds

Jn

m

urtus

puNew

Gune

p

lnes

SutKre

UaE

a

rgentn

Bn

gldes

G

erny

Nel

pkstn

Qtr

Tng

UntedKngd

Brn

Butn

Brzl

Brune

Egyt

Greee

h

ngKng

irelnd

Kuwt

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Tbe 9 En it osre prsn

total

Grss Reenue $

Stre & ip 14.0

pressn Seres 89.7

lenes & Rtes 3.3

107.0

csts 36.4

GrossProt 70.6

Prottooffshore 0.7

Net frex t NZ 69.9

lbur / grss utut N./$ 9.59

vue-added / grss utut $/$ 0.54

Eent N 670

vue-added $ 37.9

total

muters - Te i

Grss outut 1.69

Eent 1.43

vue-added 1.60

muters - Te ii

Grss outut 2.34

Eent 1.79

vue-added 2.18

att b Te i muters

Grss outut $ 118.3

Eent N. 960

vue-added $ 60.7

att b Te ii muters

Grss outut $ 163.4

Eent N. 1201

vue-added $ 82.8


19/30

17


lESSoNS aND fURThER RESEaRch4.

fURThER USE of ThE EXiSTiNG DaTaSET4.1

T edte uses te exstng sure dtset e t nd:

cutn nn-sttst errr rgns (srt-st underunt, tretent send-nd ssets

nd rregur exendture) r te regn esttes (Tbe 4) student exendture. Ts gt ge

someindicationofwhetheritwouldbeworthwhiletoincreasesamplesizetoimproveregion-specic

nrtn n exrt edutn ssung ts s desred.

Estimationoflivingcostsexpenditurecrossclassiedbyregionoforiginandtypeofinstitution,derived

bymethodsanalogoustothoseusedtoestimatelivingcostsexpenditurecrossclassiedbyNewZealand

regn stud nd te nsttutn (reer aendx c).

fUTURE SURvEyS4.2

Te tng te sure t te dde te er rn nt te bstes s ds, tertr ds ndtertiarystudyleave.Thisspreadtheresponsesoveralongertimeperiod,whichisinefcientfromananalysis

nt e.

Qute rt r te usu sure rbes r reetn nd esttn netr unts, t ter

rbes exsted:

Exendture r te rest er (r te sure dte) d t be estted. we ts s ngebe

rbe t des rse errr rgns red t ng u rerd.

a snst sure underunts srt-st students. T rge extent ts s rreted r b usng

knedge but nsttutn stud s rx r urse durtn, us djustent egts, but

thisisimperfect.Eitheralargersampleisrequiredenablinganeclassicationofcoursetype/length(in

turnenablingpopulationweightstobeappliedatanequallynelevelratherthanbyjustsixinstitutionaltes), r te sure ud be stggered er tee nt erd. Te tter tn gt s ed

re nsgt but rregur exendture.

offShoRE pRoviSioN4.3

Ts rjet btned te st reense esure exrt edutn rded sre tt s eer been

tteted n Ne Zend. we ere struk b te rge nuber de nd busness enttes ned n ts

tt, bet tt n re rttng t ees. we suset tt e dd nt uner rtnts, but t

s st unke tt e e erked n rge ers.

Te st grt ts set exrt edutn suggests tt resed estte ts sze nd nture n 2-3

ers ud be desrbe. in rertn ts e reend ng n exuste st edutn nd

reser nsttutns, nes nd rte nddus re se engged n sre rsn. Te st

drn u r ts rjet ud be useu strtng nt, but e ud e t seek erssn tse ned

bere nes ud be de ub. an ternte tn gt be r Ne Zend Trde nd Enterrse t

ntn su st.


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18


appENDiX a STUDENT EXpENDiTURE SURvEy

SampliNG

fu dets te sng resses nd redures re gen n te nng duent Te interntn

Student Sendng Sure, b NRB, Seteber 2008.

Tbes a1-a3 s te se sze requred r reresentte ntn erge, us te extensns undertken

inordertoensureadequatesamplesizesforinferencesaboutstudentexpenditureforvestudyregionsandve

sure regns.7

Samplesizesareinsufcienttoenablethesimultaneousclassicationofexpenditurebytypeofinstitution,region

stud nd sure untr, but see aendx c.

Tbe a1 orgn Sure t Estbsent Te as fus (1200 questnnre ssued, N=720)

tYpe no. % no. ffpstudents

% ffp

students

n=720 complete

Questionnaire

approx

numbersampledSe

r %

Se r

fxed Nuber

Unerst 8 0.86 20,502 27.34 197 120 8

pten 20 2.14 9,000 12.00 86 120 20

prr S 355 37.97 3,259 4.35 31 120 30

Sendr S 325 34.76 11,558 15.41 111 120 30

Engs lnguge S 119 12.73 25,908 34.55 249 120 30

prte Trnng Estbsents 108 11.55 4,759 6.35 46 120 20

935 100.00 7,4986 100.00 720 138

Nte: 1. Ts tbe s desgned bsed n august 2007 dt r Exrt Edutn le Ke Sttsts august 2003-2007 - mnstr Edutn.

Subsdr prders re exuded.

Tbe a2 Sure t Estbsent Te nd Regn Exnsn (1450 questnnre ssued, N=870)

region no. ffp studentsapprox intervieWs

Yield bY 720 sample

desirable minimum

no.bY region

booster sample

reQuired

auknd 40,658 380 120 N

wengtn 4,901 50 120 70

Rest Nrt isnd 11,773 110 120 10

cnterbur 13,610 130 120 N

Rest Sut isnd 5,426 50 120 70

Tt 76,368 720 -- 150

Nte: Ts tbe s desgned bsed n august 2007 dt r Exrt Edutn le Ke Sttsts august 2003-2007 - mnstr Edutn.

Extr-ur students re exuded.

Tbe a3 Sure t Estbsent Te, Regn Exnsn nd cuntr orgn Exnsn (1650 questnnre ssued, N=990)

countrY of origin % distributioncompleted number before

boost sample n=870

completed number after

boost samplen=990

cn 31.3% 272 272

Sut Kre 19.5% 170 170

Jn 12.6% 110 >120Rest as 12.3% 107 >120

7 Thefullyearguresusedforpost-sampleweightingandpresentedinthebodyofthereportwerenotavailableatthestartoftheproject.In

anycasethe2008proleisnotthesameasthe2007prole.
http://www.minedu.govt.nz/index.cfm?layout=document&documentid=10971&indexid=11328&indexparentid=11326http://www.minedu.govt.nz/index.cfm?layout=document&documentid=10971&indexid=11328&indexparentid=11326http://www.minedu.govt.nz/index.cfm?layout=document&documentid=10971&indexid=11328&indexparentid=11326http://www.minedu.govt.nz/index.cfm?layout=document&documentid=10971&indexid=11328&indexparentid=11326


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19


Initialsamplestraticationwasbasedontypeofestablishmentwhich,asshowninTableA3,wouldlikelylead

toinsufcientstudentsfromJapanandtherestofAsia.Ifthisoccurredcoordinatorswereaskedtoundertakea

send ste t te sng b sng te next x ffp students. i tse ffp students e r Jn r te

rest as te ud be nuded, terse exuded. Tus, tt but 120 Jnese students nd er

120 ter as students ere sureed. .

lENGTh of STay

Te exendture sure s ntended t esure exendture b students er tee nt erd, nudng

exendture b tse re n Ne Zend r ess tn tee nts. ide e student ud e

eret re exendture nd be sked t te d sent n te tee nts t 31 Deeber. o urse

re s nt eret, but ts nt be t rtnt n ssue t s unbsed. Te sure rts students

but sendng n de rnge gds nd seres, tereb redung te bs used b exendture n se

tes beng tted.

a tent re serus ssue s te tng te sure. it urred n te dde te er, s t btn

erge exendture er tee nts tere re t ssbtes:ask but sendng er te reus tee nts.

Extrapolatespendingfortherstsixmonthsoftheyear.

Therstoptionseemstobepreferable,butisvalidonlyiftheinowandoutowofstudentsisfairlyuniformover

te urse er. Unrtunte ts s nt te se s st students rre t te begnnng te de

er, bet tt n e r srt urses trugut te er.

Ts s edened b te resnses t rus questns n te sure but en students rred n Ne

Zend nd ter ntended engt st er 2008.

mesured er students, te erge engt st n Ne Zend er te st tee nts (u t te

dte te sure) s 26.0 eeks. heer, te erge ntended engt st er endr er 2008

(tu st sne te begnnng te er us ntted st u t te end te er) s 36.3 eeks. Te

lattergureisbettersuitedtoourpurposes.

iRREGUlaR EXpENDiTURE

Havingdecidedontheappropriatewaytodenelengthofstay,thenextissueiswhattodoaboutirregular

exendture. fr exe, student s been n te untr r n srt te (s t sure dte) s

unke t e de tr bk t ter e untr, ng tt ter exendture sne rr, en

extrted t ter u (ntended) engt st, underestte ter true tt exendture. on te ter

nd, te e nurred se ne- set u sts (su s bung urnture) , en extrted t

er ter u engt st, ud ed t n erestte ter true tt exendture.

Te sure questns n rregur exendture sked but sendng er te st 12 nts (r eer ng

te student d been n Ne Zend t sure dte).

Ts ges us t n tns r esttng tu rregur exendture:

Exendture s rerted.

Exendture s rerted uted b te rt exeted te n Ne Zend n 2008 dded b tt

te n Ne Zend er te st 12 nts.

Te tegres exendture r tese ssutns generte te rgest derenes re text bks et,

tng, urnture nd urnsngs, nterntn r tre r st e, rs nd bkes, nd extr tutn ees.

Fromtheprecedingdiscussion,weknowthat(1)issignicantlybiaseddownwardsbytheassociatedunder-

esttn en engt st. Tus e seet (2) r estted sendng n rregur tes.


22/30

20


argub rregur sendng ud der b te student. S students r exe need t bu

uniforms,therebyinatingtheirexpenditureonclothingatthebeginningoftheyear.Wesuspect,however,that

urter djustent ng tese nes ud rd bee surus.

Tbe a4 ss rregur sendng uted s n (2), s sre tt sendng r e te student.

cngng rregur sendng b 50%, s rge nge, ud nge tt sendng b ess tn 5%.

Tbe a4 irregur Sendng s Sre Tt Sendng

institution %

prr ss 17.6

Sendr ss 7.0

Unerstes 6.5

ptens 12.4

prte tertr estbsents 9.0

Engs nguge ss 7.9

a students 8.5

mUlTiplE iNSTiTUTioNS

Se students ttend re tn ne te edutn nsttutn er tee nt erd. in te mnstr

Edutns unt students, tse ttend re tn ne te nsttutn ud be unted re tn

ne. Tere s ntng ntrns rng t ts r, but t n gen nt n te student s t n

ne nsttutn, s te utn students be r sng s ser tn te tt unt students

tt stud n Ne Zend er tee nt erd. (See s te next setn.)

Te derene n be dted s b usng te rret utn egts en utng

exendture r gen te student. a tent sure bs, eer, s tt students re sureede ttendng ter send r subsequent nsttutn tn tee nt erd e te rng engt

st r tt te nsttutn nd tus nrret egted exendture r tt te nsttutn.

Te sure sked students but te te nsttutns ttended r nned t be ttended n 2008, s t te

timeofthesurvey.Thequestionwasnotwell-answeredwithmanyincorrectlyclassiedinstitutions.Multiple

ttendnes unted t n but 9.0% te tt, ng n een ser eet n estted exendture

b te nsttutn. Retng 9.0% students r te gru t te gest erge sendng (rr

s students) t tt t te est erge sendng (ElS students), r e ers, ud nge er

erge exendture b but 3%. as ts s te xu ssbe t, e ke n djustent r t.

ShoRT STay STUDENTS

Beuse te sure s tken t nt n te, t ete ts students se st n Ne Zend des nt

er t te sure erd. Ts ens tt te sure s er-reresented b nger st students, ng

er-stteent erge engt st nd tus erge exendture.

as st srt st students ttend ElS, e utt rret r te bs n erge engt st t

nsderbe extent, b ssng students b te nsttutn nd ten usng te rret utn egts t

btn tt exendture. Ts des nt u rret te bs s ter nsttutns s enr students r urses

tt st r n e eeks r nts.

as n exe r sendr s students, 9.1% exet t be n Ne Zend r ess tn 26 eeks. (an

nger tn tt nd su students ud be n te sure sng re.) Ter en engt st s

23.4 eeks. assung su students re rxte unr dstrbuted trugut te er es ttur se re ud k u but 90% srt st students rred beteen te strt te er

nd te dde te er en te sureng urred. and urse, n srt ter student rres n

te send te er s ete ssed. ardng te rrtns students unted s srt st

students s djusted b nresng ter egt b tr 2.23 (2/0.90).


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21


Sr utns r te ter tes students generte te ng djustent trs:

Tbe a5 adjustent ftr r wegt n Srt St Students

institution % short staY factor

prr ss 7.6 3.21

Sendr ss 9.1 2.23

Unerstes 4.2 2.45

ptens 9.8 2.56

prte tertr estbsents 14.8 2.70

Engs nguge ss 20.2 3.10

a students 12.8 2.74

Nt rretng r te underunt srt-st students nreses estted erge exendture b 12.2%, s

en engt st s nger. we ur etd djustent s nt eret, e tnk t unke tt t s rng

b re tn 20-30%, ng n errr n tt estted exendture n re tn 4%.

SEcoND haND GooDS

Se gds ursed b students re send nd. Su exendture st nsttutes regn exnge ernngs

rded n se reeds re nt retted bk sre en te student ees Ne Zend. heer,

te d nt nsttute ntrbutn t Ne Zends grss dest rdut. on te deers rgn n su

trnstns s ntrbutn t GDp.

Themostsignicantsecondhandgoodspurchasedbyforeignstudentsaremotorvehicles,probablyfollowed

b urnture. huse urses ud urse be u rger, but sure t testng reeed tt ernent

housepurchasesbyforeignstudentsaresorarethattherelevantquestionsweredeletedfromthenalsurvey.

Te questn n te sure but te urse rs s ers te urse tres nd bes.

Judgng b te s unts rerted, st te urses re used gds. we ssue tt te rese

ue tese gds s neggbe r tt n ne r te se su gds s nt retted sre.

Te deers rgn n tese gds s n te se utn stes su s Trdee, but g n used rs

bugt trug tr ee deers. we ssue tt 20% te exendture n te rs nd bkes nsttutes

ntrbutn t GDp. Te resuts re nt senste t ts ssutn.

Tbe a6 ss te estted rrtn sendng n send nd gds r e te student. a deers

rgn 40% ud er te 4.0% erge r students t 3.0%.

Tbe a6 Sre Sendng n Send hnd Gds

institution %

prr ss 0.2

Sendr ss 1.5

Unerstes 4.8

ptens 6.0

prte tertr estbsents 4.4

Engs nguge ss 4.1

a students 4.0


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22


EaRNiNGS iN NEw ZEalaND

wtn ts, nterntn students re ed t rk nd ern ne n Ne Zend. as ernngs

re nt regn exnge, te sud nt be unted s net en ntrbutn r exrt edutn.

Terere ernngs re subtrted r exendture n ur en t nss. men ernngs, estted

ngus t rregur exendture re estted t be s s.

Tbe a7 men annu Ernngs

institution $/Year

prr ss $0

Sendr ss $0

Unerstes $1,702

ptens $2,679

prte tertr estbsents $771

Engs nguge ss $408

a students $930

appENDiX B EcoNomic impacT aNalySiS

iNTRoDUcTioN

Te en ntrbutn n ndustr des nt en tt te en s better b te u unt

te esured ntrbutn. Ts ud n be true te resures ned n sung te needs

tt ndustr ud terse e de. Ts s unke, but usu e e n de t te st usbe

untertu ud be.

heer, esureent te en ntrbutn regn students ders n ne rtnt reset r

esureent te en ntrbutn s ne sng . in te tter tere s dstnt st n te

sendng nsuers - trds te ne nd r exstng estbsents. Tus tere s

denitetradediversioneffect.Withforeignstudentsthedemandcomesfromoffshore(likeanexport)sothereis

noimmediatetradediversioneffectemanatingfromthedemandside.Hencewedonotallowforsuchaneffect

n te en t nss. Neerteess, s stted be, ts s nt t tt te reent resures

ud be de tere ere n regn students.

ThE mUlTipliER coNcEpT

E dr sent n te utut ne ndustr eds t utut nreses n ter ndustres. fr exe r

unerst t deer edutn seres t regn student t requres nuts bks, energ, untn

seres nd s n. prt te tutn ee s used t er te st tese tes. anter rt ers te st

te budngs nd equent (sred er ter useu es) nd tere s rge rtn r st ges nd

sres.

Te sung ndustres su s energ requre nuts tesees, ges nd sres, nd s n. Te eet n

tese sung ndustres s knn s te ustre r ndret rdutn eet nd s n esured b

numbercalledaTypeImultiplierwhichisdenedastheratioofthedirectplusindirecteffects,tothedirecteffect.

Te sung ndustres ges nd sres, re used t urse used nsutn gds. Ts

eet s gener knn s te dnstre r ndued nsutn eet. agn te eet be esured

byamultiplier.ThetotalorTypeIImultiplierisdenedasthedirect,plusindirectproduction,plusinduced

nsutn eets, dded b te dret eet.


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23


muters re t uted r tree derent esures en tt:

grss utut

ue-dded

eent

E tese s urter dsggregted nt Te i nd Te ii uters.

heer, uters need t be utus nterreted nd reu ed. wen ed t grss utut te

ed t dube untng. fr exe te ue d nd drnk sued t resturnt s unted s rt

te grss utut bt te fd nd Beerge mnuturng ndustr nd te Resturnt ndustr. i nes

s t esure er busness tt ts dube untng be useu, but r te ersete en

ntrbutn t s ue-dded, r ntrbutn t grss dest rdut (GDp) s nterest.

liNK To NaTioNal accoUNTS

Atthispointoneneedstobemindfulofthedenitionofvalue-addedandoftheincome-expenditureidentityinte ntn unts. i regn student sends $100 n Ne Zend, tt $100 s rt exrts s

componentofnaldemand-theexpendituresideofGDP.Inthissenseitrepresents100%value-added.Onthe

ne sde, eer, n te rt s nt sent n nuts r ter ndustres s unted s dret ue-

dded. Te rest s rgresse sent nd re-sent ustre nd, rt r sendng n rts, s eentu

entre exusted n nuts bur nd t; tt s ue-dded.8 Tus te uter r te ndret

ustre eets s just reresenttn te ress ereb te exendture nd ne sdes te ntn

unts equbrte. N ddtn ue-dded s reted r ts eet. a tt e gn s knedge but

te nt exendture sk res trug te rus sung ndustres nd u eks sre n

te r rts.

Te re eru eet s tt te ndued nsutn uter. Te nt ge nd sr ents

nd te subsequent runds ge nd sr ents ed t n nrese n rte nsutn; ntercomponentofnaldemand.Thisgeneratesow-oneffectsinananalogousmannertotheoriginalincreasein

exrts nd terere des generte n ddtn gn n GDp. Ts gn be egtte ttrbuted t te

nrese n exrts, rded tt resures e nt been derted r ter rdute uses. i te e, t s

neessr t dedut te dret, ndret nd ndued eets tse resures n ter ternte uses.

DETERmiNaTioN of mUlTipliERS

muters r te ndret rdutn eet re es uted r stndrd nut-utut tbes rdued b

StatisticsNewZealand.Thusforagivenincrementtonaldemand(exports,consumptionetc),wecandetermine

thedirectandindirectpatternofproductionneededtosupportthatincrementtonaldemand.

cnsutn ndued uters re re ted t deterne s te requre se ssutns but te

nks beteen te prdutn aunt nd te ine & out aunt n te ntn unts. in rtur

linkbetweenprivateconsumption(mostlyhouseholdspending)andincomefromwagesandprotsneedstobe

estbsed. T ts s sed b tretng nuts bur s n nteredte nut nd ten tretng

rte nsutn s te ndustr rdues bur. Enneents t ts r nude ng r

te dstrbutn ertng surus t useds nd r te ekge used sngs. Ts s te essene

te r used b Buter prtners (se uters e use) t ute te ndret rdutn nd

ndued nsutn uters.

oter enneents re ssbe:

allowingforconsumptionnancedfromsocialwelfarebenets;

nudng te eet gernent nsutn, u , su s et, s tu nsued b

nddus nd d r ut txes;

8 in t ue-dded s nudes se rs ndret txtn.


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includingtheeffectofnewinvestmentwhichmaybeneededtoexpandoutputandmaybenancedout

ertng surus;

acknowledgingthatexportsmayneedtorisetonancetherequirementforadditionalconsumer

rts.

auntng r tese eets requres te use ut-ndustr gener equbru de. Tese tes

modelsincorporateallofthekeyinter-dependenciesintheeconomy,suchasowsofgoodsfromoneindustry

t nter, us te ssng n ger ge sts n ne ndustr nt res nd tene te sts ter

ndustres. Te s erte st te ter t ssutns tt re n erked n te

tn uters dered r stt nut-utut tbes, ntb:

nt ssung tt trs rdutn re n exess su,

ng r re nges (su s tr s n ted su) ed rduers t nge

nuts, tereb terng ter rdutn struture nd ene te ssted en uters,

nt rng erge retnss t d t te rgn,

utt utng net uter eets b redung te grss eets t te extent tt te u

resures ut ter rdute uses (tt s, trde dersn).

a tese eets e te tent t underne te resut uter nss - te der te tteted

erge ndret nd ndued eets, te greter s te tent r sutn nd errr. Rter ke

stne trn nt nd; te re te res sred ut, te re ke te re t enunter se r

bste - res r nter stne, rss urrent, te ebnkent.

Gen te sze te exrt edutn ndustr gener equbru de nss te ndustrs der

en ts ud see rte.

appENDiX c ESTimaTiNG REGioNal liviNG coST EXpENDiTURE By TypE of iNSTiTUTioN

as nted be te student ng st exendture sure dd nt e rge enug se t ert te

sutneus dsggregtn exendture b te edutn nsttutn nd regn. heer tere re t

waysofestimatingsuchspendinggures.

mEThoD 1

Calculatetheexpectedexpenditureonlivingcostsbyallstudentsinregionjassumingthatstudents.

gen nsttutn te send te se n regns, uted b egtng ntn erge

exendture r e te student b te stn students n regn j.

cute erge exendture n ng sts b students n regn j, r te sure..

Se ntn esttes exendture b students te n regn j b te rt ()/()..

mtet:

Lij

= Li *

LSj

LEj

ere

Lij

s exendture n ng sts b students ttendng nsttutn te n regn j.

Li

s erge exendture n ng sts b students te rss te e untr.

L Sj

s erge exendture n ng sts b students n regn j, s uted r te sure.

LEjistheexpectedexpenditureonlivingcostsbyallstudentsinregionjassumingthatstudentsofagiventype

send te se n regns, uted b egtng ntn erge exendture r e te student b

te stn students n regn j


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mEThoD 2

cute exendture n ng sts r students te n regn j b ssung exendture n ng.

sts res r-rt t exendture n tutn ees.

cute te regn egted erge te esttes n ()..cute erge exendture n ng sts b students n regn j, r te sure..

Se te esttes n () b te rt ()/()..

mtet:

Lij

= [ Tij *L

i

]Ti

Lij* = L

ij *L j

LSj

ere:

Lij

s exendture n ng sts b students ttendng nsttutn te n regn j bsed n rete tutn sts.

Tij

s exendture n tutn sts b students ttendng nsttutn te n regn j.

L j

s te egted erge Lij.

LSj

s erge exendture n ng sts b students n regn j, s uted r te sure.

Lij* s exendture n ng sts b students ttendng nsttutn te n regn j bsed n rete tutn sts,

djusted r sure resuts.

Te resuts r bt etds re sn be. Te sud be nterreted s ntnng der errr rgn

thantheaggregateregionalgures.Clearlybothsetsofestimatesarebasedontheimplicitassumptionthatthesure resuts b regn re unbsed, bet tt te e de errr rgns.

Also,neithermethodleadstothecorrectNZ-wideguresforlivingcostexpenditurebytypeofinstitution.

fr exe, metd 1 es ntnde erge ng st exendture b sendr students $19,788,

metd 2 eds $20,116, e te estte r te sure (reer Tbe 1) s $18,243. Tese dsrenes rse

beuse te sure-dered esttes ng sts b regn (reer Tbe 4) d nt neessr e te rret

institutionalweightsforeachregion.Itmightbepossibletoproduceimpliednationalguresthatmatchactual

nationalguresbyaniterativeprocess,buttheonlywaytoproducetrulyrobustestimatesofregionallivingcosts

cross-classiedbytypeofinstitutionisviaalargersample.


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appENDiX D QUESTioNNaiRE

ThE EcoNomic impacT of EXpoRT EDUcaTioNS offShoRE acTiviTiES oN NEw ZEalaND

on be Edutn Ne Zend Trust nd te mnstr Edutn

Knd ete te ng questns eter eetrn r b rntng nd ndrtng. pese rete tt dt s esured restimatedtothenearest$thousandwillbeveryadequateforthesurveypurposes.Alldataarecondentialtosurveystaffandwillbe

combinedintheresultssothatnopartyorvaluescanbeidentied.Thesedatashouldnotincludeactivityrelatedtotherecruitmentof

studentstocometoNZ;justthoseactivitieswheresupplyisoffshore.Wherethedistinctionisdifcult,pleaseestimate.

i u e n nerns er n set te sure knd ne 03 942 3126 r 029 940 8105, r e russ@sknnerstrteg..

AreturnASAPwouldbeappreciatedeitherbyreturningthisleasanemailattachment(addressabove)inMSWordorasascan/pdf,

orbyfaxto044730643Attn:AS.

1. Entt ne ur n, nsttutn

2. cntt persn pne E

3. Bre Desrtn te att

4. cuntr(es) oertn

5. TotalGrossturnover(sales)fromyouroffshoreactivityin2007(ormostrecentnancialyear) A$

6. fr t tegr gds r seres re ur ses $a dered? fee ree t exress tese s % r $. Exress tese ues spartofthetotalsales,oraspartsofseparateanddifferentproductsorprojects(1,2etcwhichyouneednotidentify)ifthisiseasier.

different proJects or products (if separatelY accounted)

1 2 3 4

%ses r $ ue %ses r $ ue %ses r $ ue %ses r $ ue

Gds Su e.g. bks, stre

pressn Seres e.g Teng, cnsutng

lene fee//Rtes

oter (pese stte)

7. Totaloperating(non-capital)costsexpendedoffshorein2007(ormostrecentnancialyear)

b ur entt (nt nudng sre rtner/n).B$

8. GrossProt?C(=A-B) C$ 9.What%ofthegrossprotwasreturnedtoNZ? %

10.Wasthereanycapitalinvestmentover2007(ormostrecentnancialyear)madebyyourentity

(nt nudng sre rtner/n) s dret nneted t ur ttes tere?D$

11. D u n n nd r budngs sre tt re dret nneted t ur ttes tere? yes N

12. oter cents?

Tnk u r ur erts


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a REpoRT JoiNTly commiSSioNED By

EDUcaTioN NEw ZEalaND & miNiSTRy of EDUcaTioN

economic impact report 08

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