economic impacts from pm2.5 pollution-related …...a economic impacts from pm2.5 pollution-related...

1
A Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China: A provincial-level analysis Summary & Conclusion PM2.5 pollution is very serious in China and leads to a large number of health, resulting in additional health expenditure, work loss time and premature death. The economic impact of PM2.5 pollution is significant in China. In 2030, GDP loss is 1.89% in the WoAir scenario and 0.45% in the WAir scenario, while welfare loss is 2.67% in the WoAir scenario and 0.63% in the WAir scenario. The economic impact differs markedly in different provinces. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai provinces have higher GDP loss and welfare loss in the WoAir scenario. Air-pollution-control technology brings more net benefit in Tianjin , Beijing , Shanghai , compared to the rest of the country. Undeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou have negative impact from air pollution control technology. Yang XIE, Hancheng DAI, Huijuan DONG, Tetsuya HANAOKA, Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan 21 th AIM International Workshop – Tsukuba, Japan, November 13-15, 2015 China has faced with severe challenges relating to its environment, particularly air pollution in recent years. Bad air quality poses a significant threat to human health, increases health expenditure and decreases labor attendance and labor supply. Air pollution obviously has negative impact on the economy. We aim to use CGE model combined with health module to forecast and evaluate the long-term economic impacts caused by air pollution in 30 Chinese provinces. 1. Combining AIM/CGE, Health module and GAINS model GAINS-China model provided PM2.5 annual average concentration data in 30 provinces ( Fig. 1). Health module quantifies the health impacts and converts to work time loss. Methods Fig.1 Research Framework. Acknowledgment: This study was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-2 and 2-1402) of the Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan. Background Results 2. Scenario Health impact of air pollution in 2030 Health endpoints: Respiratory symptoms are the most frequent health problem induced by PM2.5 pollution, followed by asthma attacks and chronic bronchitis. measures to control PM2.5 emissions in WAir scenario could reduce the numbers of patients by about 75% (Fig. 4 upper) Total health expenditure: national total is 141 billion CNY in woAir scenario, Henan (18.0 bil.CNY), Sichuan (14.1), Shandong (12.4), Hebei (11.8), and Jiangsu (11.2) are the top five provinces. In wAir scenario, national total expenditure could be reduced by 75% to 36 billion CNY. Per capita health expenditure: Top- spending provinces with most per capita health expenditure are Beijing (432.6 CNY), Shanghai (418.2 CNY), and Tianjin (377.9 CNY) in the WoAir scenario in 2030, each bearing more than double the national average of 151.6 CNY (Fig. 4 middle). Per capita work loss time: Annual national per capita work loss time is 52.6 hours (2.5% of annual total annual work hours) in the WoAir scenario, and falls to 13.3 hours (0.64% of annual work hours) in 2030 (Fig. 4 bottom). Net benefit of PM2.5 control technology in 2030 GDP loss and welfare loss(Fig. 5) due to work time loss(Fig. 2) are more prominent in the WoAir scenario (1.94% for GDP and 2.67% for welfare than in the WAir scenario (0.45% and 0.63%), implying a benefit of GDP gain by 1.49% of improving PM2.5 pollution (Fig. 5). Net benefit in China The air pollution control cost reaches 833.6 billion Yuan, or about 0.79% of GDP. The net benefit (Fig. 6) from PM2.5 control technology is 0.80% in GDP., investment on such technology is quite beneficial in China as a whole. Net benefit at provincial level The net benefit (Fig. 6) is high in provinces with larger economies and higher PM2.5 concentrations, such as Tianjin (2.1%), Shanghai (2.07%), Beijing (1.9%), Henan (1.6%), Jiangsu (1.6%), and Hebei (1.2%). By contrast, the PM2.5 control technology incurs a big burden on less developed western provinces and ultimately leads to negative net impacts, such as Ningxia (-1.7%), Inner Mongolia (-0.7%), Guizhou (-0.69%), Gansu (-0.67%), Heilongjiang (-0.54%), Qinghai (-0.53%) and XinJiang (-0.51%). Policymakers should consider the differences and tailor suitable policies for different regions. The Chinese government should institute a suitable policy and provide necessary financial aid in these underdeveloped provinces. Developed regions can provide technologic and financial aid to undeveloped regions, since air pollution concentration depends not only on emissions in one region, but also on transboundary emissions from neighboring regions.. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner… Liaoning Jilin Heilo… Shang… Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shand… Henan Hubei Hunan Guan… Guangxi Hainan Chon… Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang PM2.5 concentration (ug/m3) WoAir Wair National standard WHO standard -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 China Tianjin Shanghai Beijing Henan Jiangsu Hebei Shandong Chongqing Zhejiang Sichuan Hubei Anhui Guangdong Hunan Liaoning Fujian Jiangxi Guangxi Shaanxi Jilin Hainan Shanxi Yunnan Xinjiang Qinghai Heilongjiang Gansu Guizhou InnerMong Ningxia % GDP GDP change Health expenditure control cost netbenefit Receptor Impact category ER functions Mortality Chronic mortality 0.4% Morbidity Respiratory hospital admissions 1.17E-05 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions 8.40E-06 Cardiovascular hospital admissions 7.23E-06 Chronic bronchitis 4.42E-05 Work loss day 2.07E-02 AIM/CGE-China model estimated GDP loss and welfare loss from per capita work time loss due to PM2.5 pollution. case , = , ,, ,, case , = Morbidity , ,, Fig. 3: Annual average PM 2.5 concentration in 2030 in 30 provinces Fig. 4 Annual per capita case (upper), expenditure (middle) and work hour loss (lower) in 2030 Fig. 6 Net Benefit of Air Pollution Control Technology in 2030 Fig. 5 GDP loss (left) and Welfare loss (right) in 2030 PM2.5 concentration in 30 provinces GDP loss and Welfare loss in 30 provinces Population Technology Resource Labor Economy GDP Welfare Energy Environment Air pollutants 30 provinces of China CGE (General equilibrium model) Policy Economic driving forces Fig.2 CGE -Health Impact n: cohort C: PM2.5 concentration M: all-cause mortality, equal to 0.715% in China P: Population t: year r: region or province WoAir scenario: without any intensive air-pollution-control technology. The bad air quality increases outpatient visits, hospital admissions and work loss day. Additional health expenditure and work time loss lead to adverse effects on the economy. WAir scenario assumes the existence of intensive air-pollution-control technologies are used to reduce PM2.5 concentration to levels much lower than those in reference and WoAir scenario. PM 2.5 concentration is higher in the east of China, especially on the North China Plain, a populous region with more industry. In the WoAir scenario, the PM 2.5 concentration far exceeds the national standard of 35 ug/m 3 . Even in the WAir scenario, the PM 2.5 concentration in most provinces exceeds the national standard and the WHO standard of 10 ug/m 3 .(Fig.3)

Upload: others

Post on 17-Mar-2020

10 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related …...A Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China: A provincial-level analysis Summary & Conclusion •PM2.5

A

Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China:

A provincial-level analysis

Summary & Conclusion• PM2.5 pollution is very serious in China and leads to a large number of health, resulting in additional health expenditure, work loss time and premature

death.

• The economic impact of PM2.5 pollution is significant in China. In 2030, GDP loss is 1.89% in the WoAir scenario and 0.45% in the WAir scenario, while welfare loss is 2.67% in the WoAir scenario and 0.63% in the WAir scenario.

• The economic impact differs markedly in different provinces. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai provinces have higher GDP loss and welfare loss in the WoAirscenario.

• Air-pollution-control technology brings more net benefit in Tianjin , Beijing , Shanghai , compared to the rest of the country. Undeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou have negative impact from air pollution control technology.

Yang XIE, Hancheng DAI, Huijuan DONG, Tetsuya HANAOKA, Toshihiko MASUINational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan

21th AIM International Workshop – Tsukuba, Japan, November 13-15, 2015

• China has faced with severe challenges relating to its environment, particularly airpollution in recent years.

• Bad air quality poses a significant threat to human health, increases healthexpenditure and decreases labor attendance and labor supply.

• Air pollution obviously has negative impact on the economy. We aim to use CGEmodel combined with health module to forecast and evaluate the long-termeconomic impacts caused by air pollution in 30 Chinese provinces.

1. Combining AIM/CGE, Health module and GAINS model• GAINS-China model provided PM2.5 annual average concentration data in 30 provinces (Fig. 1).

• Health module quantifies the health impacts and converts to work time loss.

Methods

Fig.1 Research Framework.

Acknowledgment: This study was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-2 and 2-1402) of the Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan.

Background

Results

2. Scenario

Health impact of air pollution in 2030

• Health endpoints: Respiratory symptoms are the most frequent health problem induced by PM2.5 pollution, followed by asthma attacks and chronic bronchitis. measures to control PM2.5 emissions in WAir scenario could reduce the numbers of patients by about 75% (Fig. 4 upper)

• Total health expenditure: national total is 141 billion CNY in woAir scenario, Henan (18.0 bil.CNY), Sichuan (14.1), Shandong (12.4), Hebei (11.8), and Jiangsu (11.2) are the top five provinces. In wAir scenario, national total expenditure could be reduced by 75% to 36 billion CNY.

• Per capita health expenditure: Top-spending provinces with most percapita health expenditure are Beijing(432.6 CNY), Shanghai (418.2 CNY), andTianjin (377.9 CNY) in the WoAirscenario in 2030, each bearing morethan double the national average of151.6 CNY (Fig. 4 middle).

• Per capita work loss time: Annualnational per capita work loss time is52.6 hours (2.5% of annual total annualwork hours) in the WoAir scenario, andfalls to 13.3 hours (0.64% of annualwork hours) in 2030 (Fig. 4 bottom).

Net benefit of PM2.5 control technology in 2030

GDP loss and welfare loss(Fig. 5) due to work time loss(Fig. 2) are more prominent in the WoAirscenario (1.94% for GDP and 2.67% for welfare than in the WAir scenario (0.45% and 0.63%), implying a benefit of GDP gain by 1.49% of improving PM2.5 pollution (Fig. 5).

Net benefit in China• The air pollution control cost reaches 833.6 billion Yuan, or about 0.79% of GDP. The net benefit (Fig. 6) from PM2.5 control

technology is 0.80% in GDP., investment on such technology is quite beneficial in China as a whole.

Net benefit at provincial level• The net benefit (Fig. 6) is high in provinces with larger economies and higher PM2.5 concentrations, such as Tianjin (2.1%),

Shanghai (2.07%), Beijing (1.9%), Henan (1.6%), Jiangsu (1.6%), and Hebei (1.2%).

• By contrast, the PM2.5 control technology incurs a big burden on less developed western provinces and ultimately leads tonegative net impacts, such as Ningxia (-1.7%), Inner Mongolia (-0.7%), Guizhou (-0.69%), Gansu (-0.67%), Heilongjiang (-0.54%),Qinghai (-0.53%) and XinJiang (-0.51%).

• Policymakers should consider the differences and tailor suitable policies for different regions. The Chinese government shouldinstitute a suitable policy and provide necessary financial aid in these underdeveloped provinces. Developed regions can providetechnologic and financial aid to undeveloped regions, since air pollution concentration depends not only on emissions in oneregion, but also on transboundary emissions from neighboring regions..

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Bei

jing

Tia

nji

n

Heb

ei

Sh

anx

i

Inner…

Lia

on

ing

Jili

n

Heilo…

Shang…

Jian

gsu

Zhej

iang

An

hu

i

Fu

jian

Jian

gx

i

Shand…

Hen

an

Hu

bei

Hu

nan

Guan…

Gu

angx

i

Hai

nan

Chon…

Sic

hu

an

Gu

izho

u

Yu

nn

an

Sh

aan

xi

Gan

su

Qin

gh

ai

Nin

gx

ia

Xin

jian

g

PM

2.5

co

nce

ntr

ati

on

(u

g/m

3)

WoAir Wair National standard WHO standard

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ch

ina

Tia

njin

Sh

ang

hai

Be

ijin

g

He

na

n

Jia

ng

su

He

be

i

Sh

and

ong

Ch

on

gq

ing

Zh

ejia

ng

Sic

hu

an

Hu

be

i

An

hui

Gua

ngd

on

g

Hu

na

n

Lia

on

ing

Fu

jian

Jia

ng

xi

Gua

ngxi

Sh

aan

xi

Jili

n

Ha

ina

n

Sh

anxi

Yu

nna

n

Xin

jiang

Qin

gh

ai

He

ilon

gjia

ng

Gan

su

Guiz

ho

u

Inn

erM

on

g

Nin

gxia

% G

DP

GDP change Health expenditure control cost netbenefit

Receptor Impact category ER functions

Mortality Chronic mortality 0.4%

Morbidity Respiratory hospital admissions 1.17E-05

Cerebrovascular hospital admissions 8.40E-06

Cardiovascular hospital admissions 7.23E-06

Chronic bronchitis 4.42E-05

Work loss day 2.07E-02

• AIM/CGE-China model estimated GDP loss and welfare loss from per capita work time loss due to PM2.5 pollution.

case𝑟 ,𝑡𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦

= 𝐸𝑅𝑀𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 ∗ 𝐶𝑟 ,𝑡𝑛

∗ 𝑀𝑟 ,𝑛 ,𝑡 ∗ 𝑃𝑟 ,𝑛 ,𝑡

case𝑟 ,𝑡𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦

= 𝐸𝑅Morbidity ∗ 𝐶𝑟 ,𝑡𝑛

∗ 𝑃𝑟 ,𝑛 ,𝑡

Fig. 3: Annual average PM2.5 concentration in 2030 in 30 provinces

Fig. 4 Annual per capita case (upper), expenditure (middle) and work hour loss (lower) in 2030

Fig. 6 Net Benefit of Air Pollution Control Technology in 2030

Fig. 5 GDP loss (left) and Welfare loss (right) in 2030

PM2.5 concentration in 30 provinces GDP loss and Welfare loss in 30 provinces

Population

Technology

Resource

LaborEconomy

• GDP• Welfare

Energy

Environment

Air pollutants

30 provinces of China

CGE(General equilibrium model)

Policy

Eco

no

mic

dri

vin

g fo

rces

Fig.2 CGE -Health Impact

n: cohortC: PM2.5 concentrationM: all-cause mortality, equal to 0.715% in ChinaP: Populationt: yearr: region or province

• WoAir scenario: without any intensive air-pollution-control technology. The bad air quality increases outpatient visits, hospital admissions and work loss day. Additional health expenditure and work time loss lead to adverse effects on the economy.

• WAir scenario assumes the existence of intensive air-pollution-control technologies are used to reduce PM2.5 concentration to levels much lower than those in reference and WoAir scenario.

• PM2.5 concentration is higher in the east of China, especially on the North China Plain, a populous region with more industry.

• In the WoAir scenario, the PM2.5 concentration far exceeds the national standard of 35 ug/m3.

• Even in the WAir scenario, the PM2.5 concentration in most provinces exceeds the national standard and the WHO standard of 10 ug/m3.(Fig.3)