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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1
Economic Indicators
Last update 15.04.2013
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – April 2013
Europe:
• Consensus April GDP forecast for WE remained unchanged on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,2% for
2014.
• While the EU industrial confidence deteriorated somewhat compared to the previous month, the
consumer confidence indicator remained stable in March.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards in March. Companies
assessed their current business situation almost as positively as last month but were slightly
less optimistic about future business developments.
• Activity likely slit deeper into recession in early 2013. Unemployment rate hit 12% in both,
January and February and joblessness is expected to mount. GDP likely contacted again in Q1
which would represent a sixth straight quarter of decline.
US:
• Consensus April GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,8% to 2,1% for 2013. Forecast for
2014 decreased slightly from 2,8% to 2,7%
• The final Q4 2012 release showed a modest improvement in GDP of 0,4% q-o-q from the 0,1%
figure announced previously. Early indications for 2013 suggest that housing starts remain firm
after more than 4 years of deep retrenchment. This will hopefully help to support consumption.
Japan:
• The April GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 1,2% to 1,3% for both, 2013 and 2014.
• On April 4, the central bank surprised many by declaring its intent to double the monetary base
over a two-year period via the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds. Hope is that price
increases will pick up and boost the struggling economy.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators | 4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06
Q1
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
| Economic Indicators | 5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
'06Q
1
'07Q
1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
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Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08
/1
09
/1
10
/1
11
/1
12
/1
13
/1
2 %
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
| Economic Indicators | 7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Apr 13
Mar 13; 1,7
Apr.13; 0,75
Apr.13; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
| Economic Indicators | 8
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Apr 13
10,9
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
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Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Apr 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Industrial confidence within EU 27 deteriorated slightly in March.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
| Economic Indicators | 10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Apr 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 remained stable in March.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
| Economic Indicators | 11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
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Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators | 13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 14
Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13
The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Feb 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
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Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Mar 13
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Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Apr 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
After rising sharply last month, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards
in March. Companies were slightly less positive about their future business outlook than in
February, but assessed their current business situation almost as positive as last month. The
German economy remains on track in a challenging environment thanks to strong domestic
demand.
| Economic Indicators | 20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Apr 13
After rising sharply last month, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany edged downwards
in March. Companies were slightly less positive about their future business outlook than in
February, but assessed their current business situation almost as positive as last month. The
German economy remains on track in a challenging environment thanks to strong domestic
demand.
| Economic Indicators | 21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry declined slightly from -2 to -5.
| Economic Indicators | 22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – March 2013:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry improved slightly from last month (+5%) and is positive now for
the 7th month in a row.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – declined slightly from -2% to -5%.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 7th month in succession, and declined from -6%
to now -15%. In the same month of last year expectations were
considerably better than today (+5%).
Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators | 24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
| Economic Indicators | 25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
At current prices
| Economic Indicators | 26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12