economic integration and business development opportunities in the balkans
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Economic Integration and Business Development Opportunities in the Balkans. Anthony Bartzokas EBRD Board Alternate Director FING – EBRD BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP 29 May 2013 Thessaloniki, Greece. Outline. The objective of the joint workshop: B2B meetings - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Economic Integration and Business Development Opportunities in the
Balkans
Anthony Bartzokas EBRD Board Alternate Director
FING – EBRD BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP
29 May 2013
Thessaloniki, Greece
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Outline• The objective of the joint workshop: B2B
meetings• Investment recovery in a constrained capital
market• Growth and regional integration• Adjustment challenges for Greek firms• Joint IFI Action Plan for Growth in Central and
South Eastern Europe
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Divergence of interest rates on new loans in the Eurozone
Source: ECB, March 2013
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Obstacles for Greek export oriented firms
Source: NBG SMEs Report, March 2013
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ICAP Investment Survey: Market orientation of new investment
Source: ICAP, Greece (Survey of 1.095 Firms with annual turnover ≥ € 1 m.)
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International patterns of post-recession investment (272 recovery episodes)
Source: Naotaka Sugawara and Juan Zalduendo (2013) Credit-less Recoveries Neither a Rare nor an Insurmountable Challenge, World Bank Working paper No. 6459.
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Economic growth trends in the Balkans: GDP growth (y-o-y)
Source: National statistical offices.
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Bilateral trade flows have declinedExports to Greece (2005=100)
Imports from Greece (2005=100)
Source: Bank of Greece
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Business development obstacles in South East Europe (BEEPS 2008/2009 – per cent deviation from country average)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Albania BiH Bulgaria Croatia FYR Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia
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Source: EBRD and World Bank, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey IV
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10Source: Bulgarian National Bank
Structure of Bulgarian Imports from Greece
in 2008
Structure of Bulgarian Imports from Greece
in 2011: Increasing Share of Consumer Goods
Investment
goods
10.1%
Raw materials 63.5%
Consumer goods
16.0%
Mineral fuels, oils
and electricity
10.3%Investment
goods6.9%
Consumer goods 26.5%
Raw materials
54.2%
Mineral fuels, oils
and electricity
12.2%
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Greek export oriented SMEs in South East Europe
Source: NBG SMEs Report, March 2013
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Drivers for outward oriented Greek SMEs
Source: NBG SMEs Report, March 2013
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Greek outward FDIs: challenges for adjustment
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IFI Action Plan for Growth in CESEE
• EIB, the World Bank and EBRD new Action Plan of over €30 bn ($38 bn) in 2013-2014.
• Focus on investment driven growth, not “crisis management”• Elements:
• Special attention to export-led growth and trade integration• Both banking and corporate sector restructuring
support for synergies• Acceleration of the use of EU structural funds• Targeted policy advice support (corporate restructuring,
NPL/distressed asset management, etc.)• EBRD geographical focus is the Balkans, the hardest hit
region.