economic outlook · 2021-01-12 · industri emiten industri emiten agri plantation aali 11.025 19...
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Economic Outlook
Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020
World Economic Growth Projection(Percent Change)
2,81,7
3,7
-4,4
-5,8
-3,3
5,2
3,9
6
2019
2020
2021
Global Economy Advanced Economies Emerging Market & Developing Economies
World Economic Growth Projection
Source: World Bank , Global Economic Prospects, June 2020
Real GDP(Percent change previous year)
Percentage point differences from January
2020 projections
2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2020f 2021fWorld 3.3 3.0 2.4 -5.2 4.2 -7.7 1.6
Advanced economies 2.5 2.1 1.6 -7.0 3.9 -8.4 2.4United States 2.4 2.9 2.3 -6.1 4.0 -7.9 2.3Euro Area 2.5 1.9 1.2 -9.1 4.5 -10.1 3.2Japan 2.2 0.3 0.7 -6.1 2.5 -6.8 1.9
Emerging market and developing economies 4.5 4.3 3.5 -2.5 4.6 -6.6 0.3East Asia and Pacific 6.5 6.3 5.9 0.5 6.6 -5.2 1.0
China 6.8 6.6 6.1 1.0 6.9 -4.9 1.1Thailand 4.1 4.2 2.4 -5.0 4.1 -7.7 1.3
Europe and Central Asia 4.1 3.3 2.2 -4.7 3.6 -7.3 0.7Russia 1.8 2.5 1.3 -6.0 2.7 -7.6 0.9Turkey 7.5 2.8 0.9 -3.8 5.0 -6.8 1.0
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.9 1.7 0.8 -7.2 2.8 -9.0 0.4Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.1 -8.0 2.2 -10.0 -0.3Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -7.3 2.1 -6.0 0.7
Middle East and North Africa 1.1 0.9 -0.2 -4.2 2.3 -6.6 -0.4Saudi Arabia -0.7 2.4 0.3 -3.8 2.5 -5.7 0.3Iran 3.8 -4.7 -8.2 -5.3 2.1 -5.3 1.1
South Asia 6.5 6.5 4.7 -2.7 2.8 -8.2 -3.1India 7.0 6.1 4.2 -3.2 3.1 -9.0 -3.0Bangladesh 7.3 7.9 8.2 1.6 1.0 -5.6 -6.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 2.6 2.2 -2.8 3.1 -5.8 0.0Nigeria 0.8 1.9 2.2 -3.2 1.7 -5.3 -0.4South Africa 1.4 0.8 0.2 -7.1 2.9 -8.0 1.6
Source : OECD, Economic Outlook, September 2020
World Economic Growth Projection(Percent Change)
2,6
1,3
2,9
-4,5
-7,9
-4,1
5 5,15,7
2019
2020
2021
World Euro Area G20
Source : Worldometers, 11 November 2020
Distribution of Cases Covid-19 by Countries
France3,56%
Brazil10,98%
India16,58%
USA20,44%
Russia3,50%
Spain2,79%
Argentina2,43%
UK2,40%
(1.865.538 cases)
(8.684.039 cases)
(10.705.081 cases)
(1.836.960 cases)
(1,463,093 cases)
(1.273.356 cases)
(1.256.725 cases)
(5.749.007 cases)
Outcome of Total Closed Cases Covid-19(Cumulative total deaths & recoveries over cumulative number of closed cases)
Source : Worldometers, 11 November 2020
Source : Haver Analytics; Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker; WEO database; and IMF staff calculations
Lockdowns & Economic Activity
The Impact of Lockdowns & Voluntary Social Distancing on Mobility
(Percent)
Lockdowns & voluntary social distancing have a substantial negative impact on mobility.
Source : IMF
Source : Indeed; and IMF staff calculations
Job Postings, by Sector, around Stay – at-Home Orders
Sources : CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; MarkitEconomics; and IMF staff calculations
Global Activity Indicators
Global trade & industrial production picked up as lockdowns were eased
Sources :Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations
Industrial Production and Retail Sales
Industrial Production-Manufacturing Volume of Retail Sales
Retail sales have generally recovered stronger than industrial production
Sources :IHS Markit; and IMF staff calculations. Note: EA = euro area; PMI = purchasing managers’ indices. Data labels useInternational Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.
Purchasing Managers’ Indices, 2020
Business surveys of purchasing managers suggest a strong but only partial rebound in activity after the trough in the second quarter
Manufacturing PMI: Output Services PMI: Business Activity
Source : Caldara and Iacoviello 2018Note: The Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index reflects automated text-search results of the
electronic archives of 11 national and international newspapers.
Geopolitical Risk IndexGeopolitical tensions seemed to de-escalate during the pandemic but could again flare up
Source : Global Trade Alert
Share of World Imports Affected by Countries’Own Import Restrictions
(Percent)
The bulk of the distortionary tariff and nontariff barriers instituted over the past two years remain in place
Source : Baker, Bloom, and Davis 2016. Note: The Baker Bloom Davis Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty(GEPU)is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France,Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the UnitedKingdom, and the United States. Mean GEPU from 1997 to 2015 = 100; mean US trade policy uncertainty indexfrom 1985 to 2010 = 100. PPP = purchasing power parity
Policy Uncertainty and Trade TensionsTrade policy uncertainty has declined recently, but trade tensions remain elevated
Sources : Bloomberg Finance L.P.; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; Refinitiv Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.Note: WEO = World Economic Outlook. WEO futures prices are baseline assumptions for each WEO and are derived fromfutures prices. October 2020 WEO prices are based on August 21, 2020, closing. Derived from prices of futures options on August 27, 2020.
Commodity Market Development
Sources : Argus; Bloomberg L.P.; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Dark fill sections represent the percent change in commodity prices for February–April 2020, while light fill sections represent the percent change for April–August 2020. APSP = Average petroleum spot price; AU = Australia; EU = Europe; HH = Henry Hub; LNG = liquefied natural gas; NE = northeast; SA = South Africa; US = United States.
Commodity Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic(Percent)
Update Perekonomian USA
Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
PMI Manufaktur
Source: Trading Economics
Tingkat Pengangguran(%)
Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)
Update Perekonomian USA
Suku Bunga(%)
Neraca Perdagangan(USD Million)
USD Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian China
Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
PMI Manufaktur
Tingkat Pengangguran(%)
Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian China
Suku Bunga(%)
Neraca Perdagangan(USD Million)
Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)
USD/CNY
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Japan
Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
PMI Manufaktur
Tingkat Pengangguran(%)
Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Japan
Suku Bunga(%)
Neraca Perdagangan(JPY Million)
Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)
USD/JPY
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Euro Area
Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
PMI Manufaktur
Tingkat Pengangguran(%)
Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Euro Area
Suku Bunga(%)
Neraca Perdagangan(EUR Million)
Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)
EUR/USD
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Indonesia
Pertumbuhan PDB (%)
PMI Manufaktur
Tingkat Pengangguran(%)
Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)
Source: Trading Economics
Update Perekonomian Indonesia
Suku Bunga(%)
Neraca Perdagangan(USD Million)
Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)
USD/IDR
Source: Trading Economics
Asumsi Dasar Ekonomi Makro RAPBN 2021
Source: Kemenkeu
Source: Kemenkeu
RAPBN 2021
Source: Kemenkeu
Postur Anggaran RAPBN 2021
Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020
Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia(Percent Change)
IMF
2020 2021
-1,5% 6,1%
2020 2021
-3,3% 5,3%
2020 2021
-1,6% s.d -2% 3% s.d 4,4%
Tantangan Perekonomian Indonesia 2021
Source: FAC Research
Naiknya KebutuhanLapangan Kerja
Masih Belum Pulihnya Aktivitas
Impor & Ekspor
Gap InfrastrukturMasih Tinggi
KetidakpastianBerakhirnya Covid-19
Angka ProduktivitasTenaga Kerja
Rendah
Defisit Fiskal Naik
Masih Belum Optimalnya
Pemulihan SektorPariwisata
Daya BeliMasyarakat Masih
Belum Pulih
Source: FAC Research
Program BantuanSosial Berlanjut
ReformasiStruktural Berlanjut
Kredit BerpotensiMeningkat
PMA & PMDN Berpotensi Naik
Pengelolaan Fiskalyang Prudent
Harga KomoditasBerpotensi Naik
Suku Bunga RelatifRendah
Peluang Perekonomian Indonesia 2021
Penguatan Rupiah
Equity Outlook
Indonesia -12,22
Malaysia1,04
Philippines -10,95
Singapore-13,8
Thailand -14,03
Vietnam0,82
Australia-1,54
China 9,5
India6,36
Japan9,97
South Korea 15,54
USA4,95
Germany-0,96
Russia 0,75
UK-15,07
Source: IDX, 17 November 2020
Kinerja Indeks Pasar Saham(YTD %)
Kinerja Indeks Sektoral(YTD %)
Source: IDX, 17 November 2020
Agri; -18,75%
Mining; -2,44%
Basic-IND; -15,23%
Misc-IND; -14,97%
Consumer; -11,72%
Property;-32,38%
Infrastructure; -21,53%
Finance; -6,86%
Trade; -14,03%
-35,00% -30,00% -25,00% -20,00% -15,00% -10,00% -5,00% 0,00%
• IHSG selama 2020 sempat membentuk level terendah di 3912 pada 24 Maret 2020 yang disebabkan kekhawatiran
dampak dari pandemi covid-19. Level tersebutmerupakan level terendah IHSG sejak 2012.
• Secara teknikal , target optimistic IHSG 2021 berada di level 7400, didorong suku bunga yang rendah, implementasi
Omnibus Law, net buy foreignberlanjut, pengutan rupiah, danmembaiknya kinerja emiten.
• Risk : naiknya kasus covid-19, vaksin covid-19 lambat disalurkan, danmenguatnyaUSD.
Proyeksi IHSG 2021
Chart 30/11/2020
Source: FAC Research, 17 November 2020
Prospek Industri Sektoral Unggulan 2021
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Agri Plantation-Meningkatnya permintaan CPO seiring pemulihan ekonomi global
- Meningkatnya penyerapan CPO untuk program Biodisel
Mining
Metal & Mineral Mining
-Presiden terpilih USA (Joe Biden) menyiapkan US$2 triliun untuk cleanenergy-Isu global mengarah pada green energy- Terbentuknya Holding Indonesia Battery untuk mendorongpengolahan nikel- Naiknya permintaan emas sebagai safe haven ditengahketidakpastian global
Coal Mining-Membaiknya kondisi ekonomi global pada 2021-Meningkatnya permintaan dari emerging market (China & India)
Basic-IndCement
- Anggaran infrastruktur 2021 naik 47,2%.- Membaiknya permintaan property 2021
ConsumerFood & Beverages
-Berlanjutnya stimulus ekonomi pada 2021 untuk meningkatkan dayabeli
Pharmaceuticals -Anggaran Kesehatan dalam RAPBN 2021 mencapai Rp169,7 triliun-Penguatan rupiah menekan biaya impor bahan baku farmasi-Konsumsi supplement Kesehatan masyarakat meningkat
Source: FAC Research
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Property
Building Contruction
-Anggaran infrastruktur 2021 naik 47,2% menjadi Rp413,8 triliun, sebelumnya Rp281,1 triliun pada 2020-Terbentuknya Sovereign Wealth Fund/SWF untuk kepastian pendanaan proyek infrastruktur
Property & Real Estate
-Membaiknya kondisi ekonomi seiring perkembangan vaksin Covid-19-Disahkannya omnibus law memberikan kepastian dalam berinvestasi
Infrastruc
Toll Road-Mulai berlakunya aktivitas new normal mendorong mobilitas antar daerah-PUPR: target pembangunan 2.724 km ruas tol baru hingga 2024
Telekomunication
-Kebutuhan paket data semakin meningkat (WFH, pembelajaran online, & transaksi digital)-Pembangunan Teknologi Komunikasi & Informasi (ICT) senilai Rp30,5 triliunpada 2021- Pengembangan roadmap teknologi 5G di Indonesia
Finance Bank
-Penyaluran kredit 2021 diperkirakan mencapai 5%-6%, sedangkan proyeksi2020 mencapai 2%-3%.- Kebijakan relaksasi restrukturisasi kredit diperpanjang hingga Maret 2022- Insentif pelonggaran GWM Rupiah sebesar 50 bp bagi kredit UMKM & Ekspor-Impor, serta sektor priotitas lainnya hingga 30 Juni 2021- Perluasan QRIS untuk pemulihan ekonomi & keuangan digital
Prospek Industri Sektoral Unggulan 2021
Source: FAC Research
Saham Pilihan 2021
Source: FAC Research
(24 November 2020)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X)
Target PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten
Agri PlantationAALI 11.025 19 27,32 1,14 1,12 20.000
LSIP 1.140 19 42,28 1,14 0,91 2.500
Mining
Metal & Mineral Mining
TINS 1.120 16 -24,52 1,91 1,69 2.000
ANTM 1.235 16 26,63 1,91 1,57 1.800
MDKA 1.830 16 36,66 1,91 5,37 2.500
INCO 4.620 16 30,13 1,91 1,52 6.000
Coal Mining
ADRO 1.300 0,25 19,49 1,08 0,78 2.050
PTBA 2.280 0,25 10,17 1,08 1,66 3.400
ITMG 10.950 0,25 16 1,08 0,97 24.000
Basic-Ind CementSMGR 11.725 24 33,83 1,23 2,07 16.000
WSBP 224 24 -3,88 1,23 1,02 430
Consumer
Food & Beverages
ULTJ 1.660 18 17,28 2,77 3,14 2.400
MYOR 2.480 18 26,72 2,77 5,25 3.200
INDF 7.250 18 11,20 2,77 1,57 9.500
ICBP 10.125 18 17,48 2,77 4,11 12.500
Pharmaceuticals
KLBF 1.485 23 25,75 4,52 4,08 1.900
KAEF 3.300 23 366,66 4,52 2,69 4.500
Saham Pilihan 2021
Source: FAC Research
(24 November 2020)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X) Target
PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten
Property
Building Contruction
ADHI 1.075 25 186,62 1,04 0,69 1.850
WSKT 1.085 25 -4,19 1,04 1,10 2.200
PTPP 1.260 25 222,20 1,04 0,71 2.400
WIKA 1.505 25 201,72 1,04 1 2.400
Property & Real Estate
PWON 530 2,62 31,87 1,43 1,78 700
CTRA 915 2,62 54,86 1,43 1,15 1.200
BSDE 1.100 2,62 37,20 1,43 0,78 1.600
Infrastruc
Toll Road JSMR 4.520 15 156,12 0,89 1,74 6.000
TelecommunicationTLKM 3.350 -2,62 14,92 1,09 3,26 4.400
Telecommunication TowerTOWR 1.045 48 20,95 2,17 5,51 1.350
TBIG 1.460 48 33,19 2,17 5,52 2.050
Saham Pilihan 2021
Source: FAC Research
(24 November 2020)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X) Target
PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten
Finance Bank
BBKP 282 38 30,35 2,29 0,35 450
BNGA 875 38 8,85 2,29 0,55 1.200
PNBN 995 38 7,77 2,29 0,58 1.500
BDMN 2.930 38 14,54 2,29 0,66 4.750
BBRI 4.200 38 27,52 2,29 2,70 5.500
BBNI 5.950 38 19,27 2,29 1,01 9.300
BMRI 6.425 38 16,03 2,29 1,62 8.200
BBCA 32.825 38 30,30 2,29 4,52 40.000
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