Economic UpdateChristina May

christina.may@careerbuilder.com

01/09/2012

3rd Quarter GDP: 1.8% (3rd Estimate)3rd Quarter GDP: 1.8% (3rd Estimate)

Items to Note & GDP

Sources: Business Insider – Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

VideoVideo

Matt Ferguson, (4 min 54 sec) Play VideoCareerBuilder CEO, CNBC Squawk Box

CareerBuilder’s 2012 Hiring Forecast Survey

  2010 2011 Components of 

GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th  1st 2nd 3rdConsumers   

1.92% 2.05% 1.85% 2.48% 1.47% 0.49% 1.24%(Personal Consumption)

*Businesses  

3.25% 2.92% 1.14% -0.91% 0.47% 0.79% 0.17%

(Gross Private Domestic Investment)Net Exports                   (Exports-Imports) -0.97% -1.94% -0.68% 1.37% -0.34% 0.24% 0.43%

Government  -0.26% 0.77% 0.20% -0.58% -1.23% -0.18% 0.02%Total GDP 3.94% 3.80% 2.51% 2.36% 0.37% 1.34% 1.86%

               *Inventories  

3.10% 0.79% 0.86% -1.79% 0.32% -0.28% -1.35%component of Business

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“Historically, our surveys have shown that employers are more conservative in their predictions than actual hiring,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. “Barring any major economic upsets, we expect 2012 to bring a better hiring picture than 2011 especially in the second half of the year. Many companies have been operating lean and have already pushed productivity limits. We’re likely to see gradual improvements in hiring across categories as companies respond to increased market demands.”

Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment

June 2009 Recession Officially EndedJuly 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns PositiveOct 2009 1st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey)Nov 2009 1st Job Growth (Payroll Survey)

Temp EmploymentTemporary help services gained -7,500 jobs.

Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association

US Employment Situation

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.75% no change

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.75% no change

Job Loss/Gain: + 200,000 Jobs Job Loss/Gain: + 200,000 Jobs

Unemployment Rate: 8.5% -.2% Unemployment Rate: 8.5% -.2%

I

Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higherAugust Sept October Nov Dec4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/LostPrivate Sector 212,000Government Sector -12,000Total 200,000

Job Loses Change from Previous

Month

Government -12,000

Job Gains Change from Previous

Month

Retail Trade 27,900Manufacturing 23,000Leisure & Hospitality 21,000Construction 17,000Professional & Business Services 12,000Financial Activities 2,000Education & Health Services 29,000 - Education 100 - Healthcare 22,600 - Social Assistance 6,100

Initial Claims (Unemployment Insurance) & Employment RecoveryBaird Equity Research

Initial Claims (Unemployment Insurance) & Employment RecoveryBaird Equity Research

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Projections & Sector Comparison

Source: Wall Street Journal, Baird Equity Research, Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)