economic&financial report 2011 cafef
TRANSCRIPT
Economic –
Financial report
2011
Compiled by Date analysis and Editorial division – CafeF
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Briefing
Global economy 1
U.S and Europe suffered from heavy losses on public debt crisis
Governments published new economic stimulus package
Natural disasters caused severe damages
Commodity price reached a peak then plunged
Domestic economy 3
Net import considerably fell thanks to export
FDI, ODA decreased, disbursement rose
Government processed revision upon big departments, economic
groups
Merge of 3 banks SCB – FCB and VNT Bank
Gold price rose by VND 7mil/oz, enlarging the gap between
domestic and global level to VND 3-5mil/oz.
Stock market 8
VN – Index fell by 27.46%, HNX – Index 48.6% to lowest ever
MoF officially issued Circular 183 on open funds
Net buying of foreign investors hit 4 year lowest, out floor trading
gained attention
Revenue decreased, expense rocketed
Real estate market 12
Real estate in Ha Noi strongly fell
FDI on real estate plunged
Government approved of Ha Noi’s general planning
Real estate is categorized as non - manufacturing
Stock date updated 15
Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and VNM, VN – Index at 12/30/2011 hit
203.9, P/E and P/B on HOSE stayed at 6.25 and 1.31
Outstanding real estate projects 18
TOP 100 richest people on stock market 20
Cafef.vn – Finance and
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Economic – Financial report 2011
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Natural disasters exerted serious damages
A 9 richter degree earthquake and tidal wave in
Japan on 03/11/2011 killed 15,000 people,
destroying cooling system at Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear factory, bringing the world to worse
nuclear disaster ever since Chernobyl. As
announced by Japanese authorities, it takes 40
years to surmount all those damages.
Additionally, there are deathly disasters: flood
and landslides in Brazil in 01/2011; earthquake in
New Zealand in 02/2011; storm in U.S on
04/2011; typhoon in U.S in 05/2011; volcanic
eruption in Chile in 06/2011; Irene storm in U.S in
08/2011; forest fire in U.S in 09/2011; earthquake
in Turkey in 10/2011; flood in Philippines in
12/2011 (death toll of over 1,000 people).
U.S was under impact of at least 12 natural
disasters, causing USD 1bil damage at maximum
and serious human loss. Total financial damage
hit USD 50bil.
National authorities simultaneously introduced
economic stimulus package
On 09/22/2011, Fed announced “Operation
Twist” of USD 400bil in which, Fed will sells USD
400bil short term bonds (within 3 years) to
purchase USD 400bil long term bongs (within 6-
30 years) from 10/2011, ending at 06/2012.
In Sept, BoJ decided to loosen monetary policy
in terms of extending scale of asset purchasing
program from Yen 40,000 bil to 50,000 bil.
Financial assets’ fund was increased from Yen
10,000 to 15,000 bil.
On 11/30/2011, the first time in 3 years, Chinese
central banks decreased obligatory reserve ratio
by 0.5 points,
On 11/30/2011, China’s central bank reduced
obligatory reserves for the first time in 3 years to
0.5 percentage point to 21% for large central
banks, validated from 05/12/2012.
U.S and EU suffered from public debts
On 08/02/2011, U.S raised its debt ceiling by USD
2.4 thousand bil to prevent bankruptcies. On
08/05/2011, its credit rating was downgraded to
AA+ from AAA by S&P. U.S Treasury bonds stayed
behind Britain, Germany, France or Canada on
rating.
5 EU governments went bankrupted due to debt
crisis and incessant credit rating downgrades:
Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. EIU
lowered forecast on GDP growth of eurozone to
0.3% in 2012. There was no exceptional agreement
to improve current situations.
“Arab spring” exploded in Middle East, North
Africa
“Arab spring” initially occurred in Tunisia when a
vegetable vendor on being suppressed by police
fired himself. It took 1 year for protestors and
strikers to bring down Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s
regime.
At the end of 01/2011, strikers poured down to
Tahrir square in Cairo, Egypt and turned down
Hosni Mubarak’s regime. In Libiya, choosing to fight
against NATO and protesters, Muammar Qaddafi
failed and was arrested on 10/20/2011. Abdullah
Saleh fought until other governments in Gulf forced
him to hand over utmost power on 11/23/2011.
China competes with US for no1 in global
manufacturing
In 2010, China’s manufacturing sector exceeded
U.S to be global no1 since World War II. At the end
of 2011, a downward global economic negatively
affected China’s economic growth. Final figure has
not yet been released which ignited another
competition between these two in 2012.
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GLOBAL ECONOMY
On 11/30/2011, 6 global central banks created
bilateral swap program to guarantee supply to
any currency on requested. This expires on
02/01/2013.
On 12/08/2011, ECB reduced essential rate in
eurozone by 0.25 percentage point to 1%.
Currencies went down
On 03/18/2011, G7, for the first time of a decade,
interfered with foreign currency market after an
exceptional Yen increase. On 03/15/2011, Japan
injected over Yen 15 thousand bil into market for
price reduction. In 08/2011, Japan decreased
Yen. On 10/31/2011, Japan secondly reduced
Yen in 3 months.
On 09/06/2011, Swiss national bank (SNB)
harbored its franc at 1.20 franc/euro with a view
to weakening franc.
On 10/11/2011, U.S Senate penalized China on
not raising Yuan. In total of 2011, Yuan rose by
only 3.83%, 30% lower than real price as
assessed by U.S.
Global stock market
Changes of main indexes (Source: FT)
Index Change
S&P 500 0.00%
FTSE 100 -5.55%
CAC 40 -15.89%
Ibex 35 -11.74%
DAX -12.78%
Hang Seng -19.97%
Straits Times -17.04%
RTS -22.02%
S&P/ASX 200 -14.51%
NZX 50 -1.04%
Movements of significant currencies against
USD in 2011 (Source: FT)
Commodity market
Gold price
Gold price in 2011 rose by 10% to set record at
1,923.7 USD/oz (09/06) due to safety demand
regarding accelerating public debt in Europe and
global crisis.
ETF increased holding gold figure to 2,370 tons,
highest ever, which equals productivity of all
global gold mines in 2011 and higher than any
national holding except for U.S, Germany, Italy
and France.
Central banks purchased a 4 time gold figure
higher than prior year at 450 tons, specifically
Russia, Thailand. Gold warehouses were
overloaded, hiring expense hit records. New
places were built up to meet raising demand.
Gold price in 2011 (Source: Kitco)
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Political intension pushed up oil price
Crude oil price reached record, WTI at 95.11
USD/barrel, Brent at 110.91 USD/barrel due to
political instability in Middle East and Northern
Africa.
Fighting between protestors and loyalty group
towards Muammar Qaddafi gave fall by 1.5mil
barrels/day to oil from Lybia.
Intension among Iran and western countries on
nuclear issue at the end of year gave fuel to
energy market.
Commodities reached a peak then turned
downwards
Commodities price hit years’ records on a weak
USD, strong demand prospective and concerns
on supply. Since May when U.S was going to
end its QE2 and faced debt ceiling pressure,
accelerating public debts in Europe threatening
global economic growth, in combination with a
rather stable supply, however, commodities
turned to downward trend.
Compared to previous peak level, commodity
indexes such as CRE (19 items), GSCI (24
items) fell by 30%.
CPI in 2011 rose by 18.58%
Electricity rose twice, gasoline rose twice and
decreased 1 time, making CPI in 2011 stay at
18% as modified by Parliament, despite its
downward trend and inflation at 18.58% - higher
than ceiling level at beginning of the year.
Ending 2011, CRB lost 7%, GSCI fell by 1.2% -
first in 3 years.
Commodity Price Change YTY (Source: CafeF,
Barclays Captial)
Divestment from commodity market at the
end of year
In the beginning of the year, funds and investors
massively purchased commodities on a positive
outlook. However, since price fall and climbing
gold as well as economic instability, all goods
were sold off for investment transfer or cash.
The trend became transparent later and
overpoured into gold market after MF Global
breakdown – biggest global brokerage, pushing
price down. According to statistics shown by US
Future Trading Commission, from Sept to Dec,
there were on average USD 550mil divested
from commodity funds.
Net import strongly decreased thanks to
export.
Export turnover in 2011 was estimated at USD
96.3bil, a 33.3% rise against prior period.
Export structure in 2011 remarked considerable
changes against 2010. Heavy industry and
mineral proportion rose by 4%; light industry,
agricultural, aquatic, forestry and gold products
slightly decreased.
Total import turnover hit an estimated USD
105.8bil, a 24.7% rise against previous year. Net
import was estimated at USD 9.5bil.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
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DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Excluding price factor, export turnover rose by
11.4%, import 3.8% over 2010. Thanks to strong
export, net import significantly minimized.
FDI, ODA decreased, disbursement rose
To 12/15/2011, total FDI inflow hit USD 14.7bil
(including new registration and additions), a 26%
fall by 2010, 76.4% of which is into industry and
construction. Despite decreasing inflow,
disbursement quality considerably improved
against USD 11bil in 2010, equals to realized
figure in 2010 and contributed 25.9% to social
investment.
In sponsor consulting summit, committed ODA
figure to Vietnam in 2012 hit USD 7,386bil,
slightly falling compared to 2011.
Budget overspending stayed below planning
Budget overspending in 2011 including principal
debt payment hit an estimated VND 111,500bil,
equivalent to 4.9%, principal payment
proportioned 2.11%, lower than predicted 5.3%.
Gains from aids were estimated at VND
674,500bil, rising by 20.6% against 2010 (2nd
estimated figure). In which, tax income hit VND
586,151bil, a 21.8% increased over 2010; gain
from crude oil hit VND 100,000bil.
Loosen, decrease tax levy on many groups
In 2011, Government issued documents upon
loosening and decreasing tax levy at VND 15 –
19.5 thousand bil including: supporting package
of VND 250,000 for low income group; extending
payment period of corporate income tax for
SMEs and enterprises with big number of labor
and reducing total amount in 2011 by 30%;
exempting 5% personal income tax towards
income from dividends of stock investors; exempt
stock transfer by individual investors from income
tax.
Government inspected sectors and big groups
Process audit work for Ministry of Finance and
Ministry of Commerce. 27 groups, general
corporations and commercial banks are included
in auditing list such as Vinshin, EVN, TKV,
Vinalines…
These actions initially gave out findings such as
long term investment of VND 50,000bil and
accumulated loss of VND 35,000 bil of EVN;
gasoline enterprises with limited efficiency in out
of sector investment; audit conclusions of
Gasoline Stabilizing fund.
Restructuring social capital
On 07/08/2011, Decree no 59/2011/ND-CP on
transferring 100% state owned enterprises into
joint stock companies were issued, making
principal base of state owned enterprises’
restructuring.
Equitization direction grasped attention from
both domestic and exotic investors, for example,
equitization of 10 companies in Ministry of
Commerce; 6 of Vinachem; companies in
Vietnam Airlines; 6 in Railway general
corporation; urban and housing development;
members in Song Da group; BIDV; VNSteel,
Mobifone; PV Oil, Nhon Trach electricity…
Mineral resources were put under planning
Facing an overloading mineral exploitation,
Government announced a strategy to 2020,
vision 2030. Government showed no
encouragement towards exporting natural
resources and definite abandonment on
exporting crude minerals. Project certification
was approved by Prime Minister.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
Finance - Banking
Mobilization
According to Ha Noi statistic department, total
mobilized figure at the end of 12/2011 hit VND
808,290bil, rising by 2.6% and 1.7% against last
month and prior year respectively.
In Ho Chi Minh, the number reached an
estimation of VND 886.9 thousand bil, 1.8% and
10% higher than last month and 2010
respectively.
Credit growth
In Ho Chi Minh, outstanding credit balance at
the end of Dec was estimated at VND 753.8
thousand bil, 2.1% and 6.3% higher than last
month and 2010.
Outstanding loan balance of commercial joint
stock banks hit VND 381.6 thousand bil, 50.6%
total number, 6.5% higher than prior period.
In Ha Noi, the number is VND 569,400 bil, 1%
and 11.7% higher than last month and prior
period, in which, short term outstanding balance
is 1.5% and 11.5%, medium and long term is
0.2% and 11.9%.
According to final banking report 2011, total
means of payments rose by 10%, credit12-13%,
in which VND 10.2%, foreign currencies 18.7%.
In 2012, estimated growth is 14-16% and 15-
17% respectively.
Open market operations
In Dec, SBV injected about VND 16,428 bil into
Open market in two terms: 7 days and 14 days.
Interest remained at 14%/year, which was
modified level at 07/04/2011.
Interbank transactions
Below 1 month term took the most considerable
proportion at approximately 70% total
transactions. Interest fluctuated between 12.4%
and 17.5%/year. For overnight trading, interest
stayed at 13.4%-14.4%/year.
Trading exchange rate in Dec was modified
twice, ending 12/24 at 20,828 VND/USD.
Blue: overnight; Red: 1 week; light green: 1
month
Interbank interest rate suddenly rose by 30-
40%/year at certain periods. Overnight rate
reached 20%/year, however, mainly at over 12
month term with no significant trading figure.
VND overnight interest rate (%) (Source:
MB&TLS)
Bond market
In Dec, Treasury mobilized VND 2,150 bil of
government bonds through bids at HNX. Since
Dec, there has been 3 terms including 3 years
and 10 years instead of 3 and 5 previously.
Traded bonds are mainly in 3 years at
12.1%/year. Only VND 50bil of 20 year bonds
were successfully trade at 11.2%.
As estimated by State Treasury, mobilization by
bonds hit VND 65,000 bil, 81% target. This is due
to different factors, outstanding are unattractive
interest, underdeveloped secondary market.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Legal documents
On 12/15/2011, SBV issued Circular no
40/2011/TT-NHNN on Certification and
organization, operations of commercial banks,
foreign banks’ branches, representative office of
foreign credit institutions, other foreign entities
operating in Vietnam as bank.
On 12/15/2011, SBV issued Circular 41/2011/TT-
NHNN guiding identification and updates of client
information based on risk for preventing money
laundering.
On 12/15/2011, SBV issued Circular 42/2011/TT-
NHNN on granting syndicated credit to customers
by credit institutions.
On 12/29/2011, SBV issued Circular no
44/2011/TT-NHNN on internal audit and control of
credit institutions, foreign banks’ branches.
On 12/30/2011, SBV issued Circular 45/2011/TT-
NHNN on foreign currency management towards
borrowing and collecting exotic loans.
Important news
On 12/06, SBV governor officially announced
merging of 3 commercial banks including SCB –
FCB – VNT Bank. BIDV as SBV’s representative
stated its thorough guarantee towards depositors’
benefits.
On 12/24, SBV modified exchange rate 16th time
since governor’s announcement of a below 1%
change. Exchange rate at the end of the year hit
20,828 VND/USD.
To seriously follow Decree 95 on administrative
penalties in monetary and banking sector, SBV
fined Metropole Ha noi with VND 500mil. Also,
managing authorities confiscated USD 500,000
and VND 10bil collected from illegal foreign
trading at Eximbank.
Analysts recommended a ceiling lending rate to
support enterprises.
Gold market
Gold price rose by VND 7mil/oz – 8%, it hit
highest increase by 40% when price reached a
peak of VND 49.2mil/oz on 08/23/2011, global
price also climbed to top of USD 1,900/oz. At
year end, domestic price stayed at VND 41-
42mil/oz, gold price plunged to USD 1,600/oz.
As a rising price pushed up demand, SBV
allowed SJC and 5 commercial banks to sell
stabilizing fund including Sacombank, ACB,
Techcombank, DongABank and Eximbank which
made purchased figure hit 10 tons in two weeks.
While global price was modified, domestic level
remained high, extending price gap to VND 3-
5mil/oz.
SBV issued a draft on gold market management
to deal with market inadequacies, which is
pending for approval. This new regulation will
tighten gold slice manufacturing into SJC.
Accordingly, SJC will be considered national
symbol.
Commodity market
Surging price
Ron92 rose by 26.83%, diesel 0.05S 38.3%, oil
33.8%, electricity rose twice (15.28% and 5%),
coal 20-40%, clean water 40% to recording level
pushing up other items’ price.
A rise by 30% of imported milk and
pharmaceutics preyed upon customers. At
certain period (July), food price doubled prior
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Economic – Financial report 2011
year. Gas, steel, constructing materials, animal
feeds and consumption goods also dramatically
increase.
Due to strong importing demand, processing
materials remained at highest ever such as
coffee, rubber, pepper, pangasius, sprawn,
potatoes...
Product quality
Illegal imports of unclean food products
incessantly revealed exerted doubts to
customers. Specifically, agar seaweed contains
poisonous DEHP; sticky rice and chilla sauce
are infected with Rhodamine B; instant noodles
contain welding; instant beverages contain
coloring elements; chickens are infected with
steel flour exposing cancer; water injection to
raise cattle’s weight; illegal import of cattle’s
inner spoiled parts…
Igniting motorbikes and motors doubted
consumers. There have been 40 cases with
opening questions, despite certain concerns
raised from low quality oil.
Material drain to China
This year, Chinese merchants massively
collected commodities at local regions of
Vietnam. Large numbers were seen with
agricultural and aquatic products such as chilli,
pepper, cashews, coffee, rubber, pork, eggs,
yeam, cassava, lychee, fish…
This impacted market price, troubling purchasing
activities of processing enterprises. There was a
fact that many had to work for Chinese firms due
to input shortage.
Export set record
Export in 2011 set record with USD 96.3bil, 16bil
higher than target and 33% higher than 2010.
The number of items with USD 1bil turnover rose
from 16 to 22 with 5 of over USD 5bil including
garment and textile, crude oil, telephone, footwear
and aquatic products. Others remained an
impressive growth such as telephone and
components 200%, pepper 80%, cassava 82%,
steel 65%, rubber 45%, coffee 55%...
Many items experienced recording turnover such
as: garment and textile (USD 14bil), crude oil
(7.2bil), footwear (6.5bil), aquatic products
(6.1bil), machineries and equipments (4bil), rice
(3.5bil), wood (4bil), rubber (3bil), coffee (2bil)…
Import growth in 2011 (%)
62.2
25.4 25.7
18.2
45.2
15.9
25.7
14.4 13.8
56.6
30.626.1
1.9
39.2
7.2
-23.8
12
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Petro
l
LPG
chem
ical
s
phar
mac
eutic
als
fertili
zer
Pest
icid
es
pla
stic
s
Wood &
Mat
eria
ls
Pape
rs
Cotto
n
Fibre
Clo
th
Iron a
nd Ste
el
Elect
ronic
s, c
ompute
rs
CBU c
ar
CBU m
orto
Oth
er m
eans
of tra
nspor
t
Export growth in 2011 (%)
21.736.4 30
48.1
0.7
76.9
12.2
68.1
3
45.953.635
13.725.127.3
-5.2
56.2
26.9
197.3
15.8
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Fis
herie
s
Veget
able
Cas
hew
Coffe
eTea
Pepper
Ric
e
Cas
sava
& p
rodu
ctCoal
Cru
de oil
Petro
l
Rubb
er
Wood &
pro
duct
Textil
e & g
arm
ent
Footw
ear
Gem
stone,
pre
ciou &
pro
duct
Iron &
ste
el
Elect
ronic
s, c
ompute
rs
Phone & a
cces
sorie
s
Elect
rici
ty w
ires
and c
able
s
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
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Economic – Financial report 2011
Closing 2011, VN-Index was recorded at 351.55,
decreasing by 27.46%. HNX-Index 58.74, a
48.6% fall to lowest ever.
VKP’s stock price was remarked as lowest at
VND 900/share. 19/28 securities stock decreased
to under VND 5,000; SBS, SME, ORS, APS, AIG
fell by over 80% to under VND 3,000/share, this
was also seen with real estate stocks such as
NVT, HQC, SDU…
HoSE put 5 stocks into warning list including
DDM, IFS, VES, VPH and VSG, 5 into controlling
list including BAS, CAD, CYC, MHC and VKP
due to 2 consecutive years with losses. DVD and
DCC were cancelled listing (disclosure violation),
DCL ceased trading due to delay in submitting
financial reports. 5 stocks publicly stopped listing,
including MKP, IFS, SGT, SQC, V11
DVD’s director of managing board Le Van Dung
was sentenced to 4 year in prison due to stock
price manipulation, remarking the first case to be
put in court since the claim is added into Criminal
law, validated from 01/01/2010.
IPO, market offers
At the end of 2011, BIDV completely sold all
84mil shares publicly issued at VND
18,538/share. In 2011, there were only 6
enterprises equitized such as Steel corporation
(Vn Steel – 60% sold at VND 15,032/share),
Petrolimex (all sold), Cosevco, MHB (28% at VND
11,025/share).
Securities companies faced a hard year
KLS intended to leave securities field, SME, TAS
was cancelled depository due to liquidity shortage;
Ha Thanh’s director evaded with a negative VND
100bil, investors sued FLC, HSSC.
Truong Son securities (TSS) cancelled brokerage
operations, ending membership at HNX and
HOSE. Dong Duong securities closed brokerage,
transferred investors’ account to Kim Eng.
STOCK MARKET
For the first time, Depository center allowed direct
payment of dividends as SME was suspended
from offset payment. SME was also put into
controlling list and allowed to trade at Friday
sessions.
In 2011, there were 16 closed branches and 23
transaction offices and 15 new branches and 16
transaction offices. Total branches of securities
companies are 150 and 83.
According to Mr Nguyen Son, minister of market
development, Securities Commission, there are at
least 20 securities companies in need of
restructuring. The others will consider financial
safety regulations to restructure within 2 years. In
02/2012, VN-30 index will be released.
Rebounding stock market in 2012
At the end of 2011, there have been promises by
Ministry of Finance’s leaders, SBV and SEC on
rebounding stock market in 2012.
According to Mr Vuong Dinh Hue, Minister of
Finance, there has been general report and
detailed method on recovering stock market
submitted to government. Deputy Minister Vu Van
Ninh directed MoF, SEC to quickly deploy
restructuring plans which will turn stock market
into main capital channel.
According to SEC director Vu Bang, T+2 will be
commenced in 2012, he will continue proposing to
SBV on separating stock credit from non –
manufacturing sector to enable capital inflow. Mr
Dang Thanh Binh – Deputy Governor of SBV
stated that capital for stocks will still be under
control but at a more appropriate level.
Mr Nguyen Van Binh, SBV governor said that
banking growth will be controlled to prevent banks
from absorbing economic capital. Accordingly,
mobilized rate will fall and so will lending rate. In
upcoming period, SBV will re-identify balance
between money and capital market to rebound
stock market.
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Policy news
On 12/16, MoF officially issued Circular 183 on
Open fund. According to which, Open funds are
not allowed to directly invest in real estate,
precious metals, stones and restricted in certain
securities type such as not exceeding 20% total
asset value into 1 organization…To be
transferred into open type, closed funds need to
fully response to 3 criteria on net asset value,
investment portfolio and approval by 75% number
of current funds.
In 2011, MoF issued Circulars on developing
stock market such as Circular 74 on allowing
margin, open more than one account, trading
shares within day; Circular 226 on supervising
financial safety for securities company, Circular
37 on processing Decree 85 on penalty towards
stock violation, individual responsibility allocation.
In December, SEC proposed plan on
Restructuring stock market including:
Reclassification based on Circular 226);
improving listing standards; diversifying
investment products…
HOSE appointed new Chairman of Director Board
and General Director. Mr Tran Dac Sinh replaced
Mr Nguyen Doan Hung as new chairman; Mrs
Phan Thi Tuong Tam replaced Mr Tran Dac Sinh
as new General Director.
Foreign trading
On HOSE, foreign investors purchased 918 mil
units of VND 29,266bil and sold 961mil – VND
28,113bil. In which, deals accounted for 1/3 total
number.
Despite high selling figure, in terms of value,
foreign investors still made a net buying of VND
1,153bil – 4 year lowest in comparison with 2009
and 2010 of VND 3,195 and 15,370bil.
On HNX, net buying value hit VND 645bil (2010:
VND 833bil).
In general, foreign net buying was recorded at
VND 1,800bil – 11% of 2010. This followed 2010
trend, however, foreign investors strongly sold at
latter half of 2011.
Strongest net buying was seen with 3 most
noticeable stocks including VNM – Vinamilk
(8.6mil units – VND 951bil), FPT (16mil units –
VND 824bil) and CTG – Vietinbank (17.7mil units
– VND 577bil).
Not only on floors, VNM and CTG also absorde a
considerable foreign capital through separate
issuance.
Vinamil separately issued 10.7mil shares to
foreign investors at VND 130,000/share, gaining
VND 1,400 bil, raising foreign holding to 49%.
Vietinbank issued 10% share to IFC, gaining USD
182bil.
Though once being strongly sold on being
cancelled from FTSE’s portfolio, FPT’s shares
were purchased by Orchid Fund, Singapore,
therefore, raising this fund’s holding rate to 10%.
At present, room left of FPT stayed at lower than
1%.
Others with strong purchase are KDC – Kinh Do
(11.5mil units – VND 404bil), VCB – Vietcombank
(11.5mil units – 354bil), PVD (3.9mil units – VND
240bil)
STOCK MARKET
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Vietcombank reached an agreement to issue
15% its share to Mizuho Bank, Japan valuing
VND 11.8 thousand bil (USD 567mil). This is
going to be processed at the beginning of this
year.
PNJ and ITC showed up in top 10 net buying of
VND 195bil and 154bil respectively thanks to
strong purchase by Vietnam Azelea Fund.
This fund’s current holding of PNJ and ITC
reached 7% and 20%.
On net buying, VIC – Vincom (17.6mil units –
VND 1,819bil) and STB (69.2mil units – VND
1,017bil) outstood from others. Net buying
towards these stocks occurred throughout the
year but mostly in December.
In2010, net buying figure of VIC hit 17.6mil units
– equal to this year’s net selling – of VND
1,659bil.
In the case of STB, strong selling happened
simultaneously with its purchase of 100mil
treasury shares. During the year, Dragon Capital
divested from Sacombank and transferred to
foreign investors.
Others with over VND 100bil net selling include
CTD (3.9mil – 214bil), HAG (9.9mil – 212bil) and
CII (6.9mil – 122bil).
CTD’s net selling was due to Dragon Capital’s
transfer to foreign investors.
Despite being strongly sold, HAG and CII
attracted foreign capital in terms of bonds. HAG
issued USD 55mil of convertible bonds to
Temasek Holdings, CII issued USD 40mil
convertible bonds to Goldman Sachs.
In 2010, HAG was recorded with highest net
buying of over VND 2,000bil and USD 55mil
convertible bonds also to Temasek Holding.
Top 10 net buying in 2011
Name
Volume (mil) Net buying
Buy Sell Volume (mil)
Value (VND bil)
VNM-Vinamilk 23.6 15.0 8.6 951
FPT 58.8 42.8 16.1 824
CTG-Vietinbank 43.7 25.9 17.8 577
KDC-Kinh Do 22.2 10.7 11.5 404
VCB-Vietcombank 37.9 26.4 11.5 354
PVD-PV Drilling 24.0 20.0 3.9 239
PNJ 10.2 5.2 5.0 195
VCG-Vinaconex 21.1 14.1 7.0 167
REE 32.5 18.5 14.0 164
ITC-Intresco 12.5 4.7 7.8 154
Top 5 net selling in 2011
Name
Volume (mil) Net selling
Buy Sell Volume (mil)
Value (VND bil)
VIC-Vincom 21.2 38.8 -17.6 -1819
STB-Sacombank 99.4 168.6 -69.2 -1017
CTD-Coteccons 1.1 5.1 -3.9 -214
HAG-HAGL 29.7 39.5 -9.9 -212
CII 5.0 11.9 -6.9 -122
Out floor trading
While floor trading remained quiet, out floor
operations witnessed remarkable movements.
As mentioned above, IFC purchased 10%
Vietinbank’s share; HAG, CII issued convertible
bonds to foreign investors…
Besides, there are famous cases such as KKR
purchased 10% Masan Consumer’s share at
USD 159mil; Diageo purchased 30% Halico’s
share…
Especially, many foreign enterprises purchased
domestic firms such as Marico purchased ICP,
Fortis Health Care purchased Hoan My clinic;
Unicham purchased Diana; CJ – GGV purchased
Megastar, Kirin Holidng purchased Interfood…
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Economic – Financial report 2011
STOCK MARKET
There are two main points in this trend. Firstly, it is
a considerable cash flow into consumption goods
(Vinamilk, Masan Consumer, ICP, Diana,
Interfood…) which has expressed an impressive
growth recently and been under little effects from
economic circles. Secondly, it is Japanese firms to
purchase Vietnamese enterprises.
They showed up a great deal in M&A activities,
specifically Unicharm purchased Diana, Kirin
Holding purchased Interfood, Orix purchased
Nutifood, Daio Paper purchased Sai Gon paper…
and upcoming is Mizuho Bank purchasing 15%
VCB’s share at a record value of USD 600mil.
Enterprise news
More than 50% listed shares remained a lower
than book value
A weakening stock market led to a fall in market
value of more than 50% listed shares to below
VND 10,000 and much lower than net book value.
Facing merging pressure, many decided to leave
trading floors.
A falling market value also exerted hindrance
towards capital raise. Many big offers were
unsuccessful such as Nghe An petrol construction
(PVA), Dong Hai Ben Tre (DHC)… many others
ceased their plans despite being approved by
shareholders’ meeting such as Anvifish (AVF),
Ticco (THG), Di An machinery (DZM)…
High leverage, rising inventory, hard capital
mobilization
According to financial statements in quarter III,
there are 14 enterprises with Total Debt/Total
asset at higher than 90%; 50 with Debt ratio at 80-
90% and 80 at 70-80%. Capital leverage reached
1:9 (1 capital: 9 debt).
Inventory balance at the end of quarter III rose by
over 30% against same period. A high inventory
resulted in slow asset rotation and inefficient
capital utilization.
Due to a high interest rate and tightened credit
policy, 2011 witnessed money scarcity. Hard to
borrow or a high expense, unable to mobilize in
stock market in terms of additional issuance, high
inventory…are outstanding difficulties of SMEs.
Decreasing revenue, rocketing expense
Revenue experienced a lower than 5% growth
when inflation went high causing increases in
expenses such as salary, interest, management,
finance. This tightened enterprises’ income.
In terms of financial statements in quarter III, total
market revenue fell by 25%. To year end, many
asked shareholders for a decrease in year plan.
Failure in purchasing treasury shares
An incessant fall in stock price defeated intentions
to slow down price decrease or create capital
surplus on purchasing treasury stocks. New price
bottom which was formed due to a capital shortage
in the concept of a new hard year for capital
mobilization made enterprises come to selling
treasury stocks at cheap price.
Specifically, SHN sold its shares at half of
purchased price; NDN sold at 15% lower, SDH
planned to sell at 70% lower, FBT planned to sell
when market price stayed below purchased level in
the middle of 2009.
Sacombank: Opening question of acquisition
In quarter III, there were rumors on Sacombank
being acquired, especially when Dragon Capital
and even wife, daughter registered selling a great
deal of shares. The rumor went high when
subsidiaries (possessed by STB and other
benefiters) registered buying plus unexpected
purchase of over 100 mil treasury shares.
Vinancafe Bien Hoa – Merging trademark in 2011
Masan Consumer completed its offer and holding
50.11% chartered capital of Vinacafe Bien Hoa
(VCF), remarking an acquisition in terms of public
offer in 2011. This took Masan Consumer about
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Economic – Financial report 2011
STOCK MARKET
VND 1,100bil. This is regared to bring back
mutual benefits.
Changing senior staff
Changing SJS’s General Director, appointing of
board members at ORS, changing old leaders at
SBS… are examples of senior staff change.
Many enterprises made changes upon a change
in big shareholders such as VCF, FBT replaced
its leaders after its capital being mainly held by
Masan Consumers and HVG.
Securities market cut down staff, operating scale
due to a weakening market. In 17 current
securities companies, there are 3,417 staff,
falling by 370 – 9.8% against 2010. Their senior
staff was also replaced.
Out of these above reasons, many made
changes due to internal requirements with silent
movements in terms of a Decision of Inform such
as PGT, TCT, KTT, SEC, DCC, VSP, BPC, BTS,
DTC, HNM, TVD, NDN, MKV…
Restructure became essential
Market difficulties and a weak internal systems
enhanced restructuring, mainly in terms of staff
change, asset liquidation and expense cut. Asset
liquidation was strongly seen with SHC,
VNA,VOS, VFR, TLC… Others chose to reduce
number of inefficient branches; many
restructured operating regime such as ALP,
VCG…
2011 depicted a gloom market with weakening
supply – demand, low liquidity, decelarating
price. Price movements favored downward
trend with average 30%-40% in Ha Noi and 5-
10% in HCM against beginning of the yera.
Market
Real estate price in Ha Noi significantly
climbed down: In 2 months from April to June,
ground price in 70% new urban area fell.
Noticeably, western projects witnessed a 20-30%
decrease such as Kim Chung Di Trach, Gelexinco
Le Trong Tan, Van Phu, Van Canh…
Up to present, regarding to the direction of
pushing outstanding loan balance to 16%, banks
have accelerated their debts tightening. A new
real estate sell-off drove price downward which
was started when PVL (Petrol real estate JSC)’s
investor reduced apartment price by 35%, then
Private construction enterprise 1 decreased its
price by VND 5-7mil/m2 in VP3 Linh Dam and CT6
Xa La in Bemes Cau Buou.
Massive bankruptcy related to real estate: 2011
witnessed continuous bankruptcies of real estate.
The first to mention is Nguyen Thi Cuc ( Phu
Xuyen, Ha Noi) who used to be notorious for
borrowing VND 250bil (VND 10bil/month interest)
for investment around Ha Noi. Another is Bui Thi
Quyen and Ta Viet Quang (Phung, Dan Phuong,
Ha Noi) who initially borrowed VND 200bil with
interest up to VND 2,500/1,000,000/day. The case
of Nguyen Thi Dau once stirred Ha Dong district,
Ha Noi. Nguyen Thi Minh Tam and Nguyen Chi
Viet – director of Hai Ha real estate company in
Bac Ninh also borrowed VND 130bil on a high
interest for purchasing villas in Bac Ninh and Ha
Noi.
REAL ESTATE
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Economic – Financial report 2011
REAL ESTATE
Conflicts in advanced apartment blocks: 2011
marked a tough year for advanced apartment
segment with various sues. In the case of projects
under construction, investor disputed with
residents on progress, interest, etc, in the case of
projects already transferred, participants found it
hard to agree upon service fee. 4 most well-
known cases in 2011 include Keangnam
Landmark Tower for service fees, Golden
Westlake for general and private area, European
Vietnam foreign villa for high interest, Quoc
Cuong 1 for late transfer without any refunding.
FDI on real estate strongly plunged: FDI on
real estate in 2011 remarked 5 year lowest. While
2008 hit USD 23.6bil, 2009- USD 76.bil, 2010 –
USD 6.8bil, 11 month figure in 2011 was recorded
at only USD 464mil. This is due to financial
hardship encountered by foreign investors and
funds which restricted market extension but
completed projects in progress. Besides, taking
into account current issues such as liquidity,
price, real estate market showed no appealing to
investors.
Low income houses faced hard consumption:
Investors showed little excitement towards low
income houses projects while customers found
these unaffordable. At present, there are several
projects receiving registration such as Dang Xa,
Dai Mo and Sai Dong, however, with fainted
attention.
Main reasons include high price (VND 13mil/ m2),
intense payment, complicated profiles with
obligations on ownership, transfer time, approval.
M&A: In the concept of a negative market, merge
and acquisition among projects was proved
obvious. Analysts stated a strong upcoming
growth. Regardless of loans granted from banks,
there are considerable options for capital
supplementation on finding appropriate partners.
These include selling the whole project to a third
party, looking for capital contributors, selling
apartments in big amount, selling trade centre and
offices in terms of ground. Holding great land
resource, many investors can consider partial
selling for capital contribution.
Outstanding policies
Decision 11 on tightening real estate credit: In
02/24/2011, government issued Decision 11 and
on 03/01/2011, State bank governor issued
Instruction 01. Accordingly, banks tightened credit,
reduced outstanding loan on non – manufacturing
sector, especially real estate against 2010 (
outstanding loan on non – manufacturing
sector/total balance at maximum is 16%). This
tremendously affected real estate market as this is
main funding source for projects, leading to great
plunge in price and supply – demand imbalance.
Approving of Ha Noi’s general plan: On
07/27/2011, Prime Minister approved of General
Planning for Ha Noi 2030 and vision 2050.
Accordingly, national administrative – political
center will be moved to My Dinh and West Lake.
No change is made towards Departments at Ba
Vi…Also, central urban areas from belt IV to inner
parts are recognized as advanced political, cultural,
service, health and educational centre nationwide.
Besides, there are 5 satellite urban areas including
Hoa Lac, Son Tay, Xuan Mai, Phu Xuyen – Phu
Minh, Soc Son and eco areas. Specially, there are
green corridors between centre and satellites.
According to specialists’ estimation, USD 300 bil,
even 400 is needed to process this planning which
is about 4 year national GDP.
Categorizing real estate into non –
manufacturing sector: In Nov, SBV released
credit institutions from non – manufacturing sector
except for 4 real estate groups. Forwardingly,
Prime Minister issued Directive 2196 partially on
widening credit margin for real estate loans in
terms of construction of social houses, lending for
new houses for people in real needs… This
directive somehow lightened a way out for real
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Economic – Financial report 2011
estate firms and banks, however, it takes time to
evaluate effects market.
Rescuing real estate: A short while after SBV’s
issuance of Document 8844, Prime Minister
issued Directive 2196/CT-TTg on enhancing real
estate market management, clearly signaling
about loosening credit margin towards this sector.
Prime Minister required SBV to “ conduct,
coordinate with Ministry of Construction and local
authorities in revising, maintaining loans towards
projects to be completed and express adequate
capability to recall capital in 2012”.
REAL ESTATE
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Economic – Financial report 2011
1. Market overview
Appendix 1: Stock data 2011
Market scale HOSE HNX Upcom
Index 351.6 (-27.5%)
58.7(-48.6%)
33.8 (-25.3%)
- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN,VNM 203.9
Newly listed figure 305 393 131
- newly listed in December 30 29 32
Capitalization (VND bil) 454,563 88,131 22,731
% possessed by foreign investors 15.3% 9.2% 1.9%
P/E 7.90 7.64 _
P/B 1.69 0.99 _
- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN, VNM
P/E 6.26 _ _
P/B 1.31 _ _
(*) Data updated to 12/31/2011
Stock and money supply, demand in 2011
Dividends paid in cash (VND bil) 29,942
- December separately 2,715
Issuance for capital raise (VND bil) 15,061
- December separately 1,348
Stocks gained on additional issuance 2,988,119,396
- December separately 174,572,225
No of successfully bid stocks 166,310,911
Sector Change (+/- %)
P/E P/B Roon left
Cap rate
Technology -30.8% 3.4 0.9 71.0% 5.4%
Industry 31.2% 10.1 2.3 31.8% 10.9%
Oil -31.1% 6.1 0.7 75.2% 4.5%
Public service -12.9% 9.5 3.1 51.9% 47.5%
Consumption service -9.0% 6.6 1.2 44.3% 1.4%
Consumption goods -45.3% 7.7 0.6 78.8% 2.4%
Finance -39.1% 6.4 1.0 76.3% 4.7%
Fundamental materials -42.8% 7.8 0.9 78.9% 18.9%
Healthcare -19.6% 5.6 0.8 79.1% 1.6%
Closing 2011, all 3 indexes strongly
climbed down, significantly HNX –
Index with 50%. There were only 91
newly listed enterprises (33%
against 2010).
Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and
VNM, VN-Index at 12/30/2011 was
recorded at 203.9, P/E and P/B on
HOSE hit 6.25 and 1.31.
Sector figure also favored downward
trend, averaging 30% of prior year.
Industry and Real estate &
construction remarked outstanding
decreases by 45.3 and 42.8%.
Consumption goods remained
upward trend with 3.2% as two highest
proportioned stocks (VNM and VCF)
strongly rose in 2011.
While dividends paid in cash reached
approximately VND 30 thousand bil,
gains on stock issuance only hit VND 15
thousand bil.
Accounting for 2.23bil newly listed shares
and shares through capital raise as well
as successfully bid figure, total stock
supply in 2011 was marked at VND
5.4bil.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
2. Stock price
HOSE
Code % rise Average trading volume
Code % fall Average trading volume
VCF (*) 82.0% 16,522 SBS -90.6% 100,815
VTF 59.9% 2,315 VES -90.1% 30,048
GIL 57.9% 25,521 KSA -89.3% 111,738
AGD 55.5% 17,725 HQC -87.8% 504,074
VNM 53.2% 77,704 BGM (*) -86.3% 149,375
MCP 47.1% 6,912 NVT -86.3% 257,905
LCM (*) 44.4% 44,636 VKP -83.0% 25,213
NSC 35.5% 6,186 STT (*) -83.0% 16,932
APC 30.6% 54,419 BAS -82.5% 13,347
PNJ 26.2% 127,493 KSH -81.1% 21,596
(*) Newly listed in 2011
HNX
Code % rise Average trading volume
Code % fall Average trading volume
SVN (*) 135.8% 12,791 SDU -87.8% 41,533
KTS 90.1% 968 SME -87.6% 86,367
CVN 63.1% 32,508 NHA -84.3% 16,320
HTB 62.7% 3,628 ORS -84.3% 186,339
FLC (*) 60.8% 67,055 V11 -84.0% 16,420
SDG 48.3% 2,143 SHN -83.8% 1,134,006
IDV 42.0% 820 SSS -83.8% 7,395
DNP 35.5% 19,372 APS -83.7% 91,536
CTB 34.9% 227 TIG -83.5% 83,348
DHT 28.9% 8,013 SJM -83.5% 16,594
(*)Newly listed in 2011
To last trading day on HOSE (12/31), VPL
(Vinpearl) experienced biggest rise by 91%.
However, due to its listing cancellation for
merging with VIC, VCF (Vinacafe Bien Hoa)
replaced with 82%.
Opposite trend recognized SBS of Sacombank
securities JSC with a 90.6% decrease. In
December, SBS’s price fluctuated around VND
3,000/share
VNM – biggest market cap stock in the whole
market (updated to 12/30/2011) – remained one
of strongest rise with 53.2
Similar to HOSE, HNX recorded its strongest
rise in 2011 with a newly listed enterprise –
SVN (Solavina) of 136% against its initial
level on 07/26. KTS (Kon Tum sugar) hit the
2nd with exceptional 266.7% separately in
December
30 shares showed an over 80% decrease
during the year. Many remained low liquidity
with averagely hundred shares/ session.
(**) Including Upcom, strongest rise and fall
recognized in 2011 is accounted to GDW
(Gia Dinh water JSC – rose by 305%) and
SGS (Sai Gon sea transport JSC – fell by
93.6%)
HOSE HNX
Blue: Index value; Red: Trading volume
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Economic – Financial report 2011
3. Foreign trading scale
Biggest buying/selling in 2011 (VND bil)
Code Floor Net
buying Code Floor
Net selling
VNM HSX 951.3 VIC HSX -1,819.5
FPT HSX 819.4 STB HSX -1,017.4
CTG HSX 577.0 CTD HSX -214.3
KDC HSX 404.4 HAG HSX -212.2
VCB HSX 354.0 CII HSX -122.1
PVD HSX 239.4 TTP HSX -86.5
PNJ HSX 194.5 SAM HSX -55.6
VCG HNX 165.8 HVG HSX -53.8
REE HSX 163.8 ITA HSX -48.1
ITC HSX 154.4 NTL HSX -44.7
MBB HSX 142.5 HSG HSX -40.6
PVS HNX 122.1 CSM HSX -38.4
SSI HSX 111.9 PPC HSX -35.4
DHG HSX 102.4 TDH HSX -33.4
VND HNX 98.1 ABT HSX -33.0
(*) đv: tỷ đồng
VNM, FPT and CTG located themselves as top 3
largest net buying in latter half of 2011 with VND
951.3bil, 819.4bil, 577bil respectively.
VIC incessantly remarked biggest net selling value
in 2011. STB unexpectedly experienced a VND
900bil net selling in quarter IV, forwarding exceeded
VIC to hit 2nd
position.
2011 witnessed 3 exceptional sessions on 2 floors with net
buying of 5 mil VND on 02/08 and 6.6mil VNM on 06/27 and
net selling of 13mil VIC and STB on 12/21.
In 4 year period, net buying and selling value in 2011
remained lowest with VND 1,811bil (65% of HSX) – 11.2%
against prior year.
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Economic – Financial report 2011
No
Project Investor Value Area Location Progress Description
1 Times City Vingroup VND
5,800
bil
364,500
m2
458 Minh Khai –
Hai Ba Trung – Ha
Noi
Infrastructure and
crude construction
The project includes 9 slots – 7 for houses and
supporting services; 2 for Vinmedicare international
hotel. Buildings are planned to be of 22-35 floors.
2 Vincom
Village
Vingroup VND
10,000
bil
183.5 ha Phuc Loi, Phuc
Dong, Viet Hung,
Gia Thuy, Long
Bien, HN
Villa transfer The project includes 1000 villas on 38.2ha, traffic 50ha,
trees and water areas 60ha, Vincom Centre trade
centre 45,000 m2, Vinmec2 hospital and offices,
apartments area,…
3 Mandarin
Garden
Golden Gain
Viet Nam
25,886
m2
Dong Nam, Tran
Duy Hung, Ha Noi
7th floor
construction
The project includes 4 apartment buildings of 25-29
floors with total 1008 luxury houses and trade centre
additionally,…
4 Dream City Viet Han VND
5,800bil
2,069.28
ha
Tam Nong, Phu
Tho
Construction area for trade centre, offices, houses is
52.31ha – 2.53%. Resident area is 341.66ha – 16.51%.
Green park area is 1,092.54ha – 52.97%,…
6 Son river Long Bien real
estate
company
VND
4,575
bil
117 ha Hoa Binh, Giang
Dien, Trang Bom,
Dong Nai
Infrastructure
construction
Construction area is 56.5ha including single villas,
adjacent apartments and dormitories. Public area is
9.89ha, 29.2ha is for traffic, 15.22ha for green park –
sport area, 6.19ha for river, lakes.
7 The Empire Thanh Do
Group
VND
10,000
51.5 ha Truong Sa street,
Hoa Hai ward, Ngu
Hanh Son district,
Infrastructure
construction.
Planned
The project includes 2 areas, district 1 lies on the seaside of Truong Sa street of 30ha of seaside villas, hotels, apartments,… district 2 of 21.5ha of street
Appendix 2: Outstanding real estate projects
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Economic – Financial report 2011
bil Da Nang completion in
2018.
houses, villas, hotels,…
Commencement was on 07/24/2011. As planned,
streets for walk, houses and infrastructure of district 2
will be completed in quarter 2/2013; villas in district 1
and basic foundation of villas in district 2 in quarter
2/2014; hotels and complex buildings in quarter 4/2016.
8 Phuoc An
urban area
HUD group VND
6,000
150 ha Nhon Trach, Dong
Nai
Under construction The project is located on two sides of Nhon Trach new
city’s traffic axis, with front side on street 1 of 53m wide,
adjacent to Administrative centre, 25km away from
HCM through 25C street. Housing area is 66ha with 512
single villas, 836 duplex villas, over 1000 adjacent ones.
Construction intensity 44%.
9 IJC
Commercia
l Town
Becamex IJC VND
450bil
43,923
m2
New city Binh
Duong
Deployment The project includes 300 street houses with 1
basement, 2 floors and upper yard. Each is on 125 m2 –
145 m2, constructing area 381.5 m2
.
10 Golden
Hills
Trung Nam
Group
USD
1.67bil
400ha Hoa Hiep Nam,
Hoa Hiep Bac, Hoa
Lien, Hoa Vang
villages, Lien Chieu
district, Da Nang
province
Traffic
infrastructure
progress
Traffic system in Golden Hills constitute 25.5% with
internal, inter, main and separate lanes of 7.5m; 11.5m;
13.5m; 15.5m; 30m; 33m wide respectively. Trung Nam
is currently accelerating construction of area A’s internal
lanes.
11 UNI Town Becamex -TDC VND
1,300
bil
54,503
m2
Center of Binh
Duong new urban
zone
Under construction There are 285 street houses with various areas: 105,
108, 110, 131 and 148 m2, opening at VND
4.8bil/apartment.