economics 160

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Economics 160Economics 160

The Economics of Crime and Justice The Economics of Crime and Justice

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Outline for Today: 09/22/2011Outline for Today: 09/22/2011• Syllabus: course details

• Syllabus: Assignments by Lecture Number

• Current Criminal Justice Policy Issues

• Trends in California imprisonment and crime levels

• Questions about crime trends and imprisonment trends

• The Economics of Crime Control

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Current Criminal Justice Policy Current Criminal Justice Policy IssuesIssues

• Early release for primary caregivers who were not convicted of violent crimes or sex crimes– Los Angeles Times front page story, p. A1,

Tuesday Sept. 13, 2011

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Analysis/QuestionsAnalysis/Questions• If less serious offenders are to be released

early, why did we send them to state prison in the first place?– How do we measure the seriousness of an

offense?

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The Story Behind the StoryThe Story Behind the Story• California state prisons are overcrowded

and a federal court ordered a reduction of 30,000 prisoners by July 2013

• Former Governor Arnold Schwarzeneger and former California Attorney General Jerry Brown jointly appealed

• The United States Supreme Court rejected their appeal in May 2011

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Current Criminal Justice Policy Current Criminal Justice Policy Issues #2Issues #2

• Should California prisoners be transferred to city and county jails to reduce overcrowding?– Los Angeles Times front page story, p. A1,

Tuesday May 24, 2011

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Current Criminal Justice Policy Current Criminal Justice Policy Issues #3Issues #3

• Will California sentencing laws re-fill the state prisons if the state meets the court order and reduces the number of state prisoners by 30,000 before July 2013 ?– Los Angeles Times front page story, p. A1,

Tuesday May 25, 2011

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Have California prisons always Have California prisons always been overcrowded?been overcrowded?

• How did the prisons become overcrowded?

• Why did the prisons become overcrowded?

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55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

CAPRPC

California State Prisoners per Capita: 1952-2009

California State Prisoners Per Capita, 1952-2009

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Prisoners in California• From 1952-1979, imprisonment rates were

fairly stable

• Why did imprisonment rates increase about a factor of five between 1980 and 1995?

• What was happening to crime rates in the years since World War II?

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FBI Index Crimes/Street Crimes• Violent Crimes

– Homicide– Forcible rape– Robbery– Aggravated assault

• Property Crimes– Burglary– Motor vehicle theft– Larceny theft

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Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

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CAINDXPC

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CAPRPC

California Index Offenses per Capita and California Prisoners per Capita, 1952-2010

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Observations• Crime is rising by a factor of four in the

sixties and seventies; imprisonment is staying constant

• Crime levels off in the latter seventies and eighties, imprisonment increases about a factor of five from 1980-1995

• Crime declines beginning in 1990 and continuing through the Great Recession, 2007-2009; Imprisonment levels off beginning in 1995 but does not decline

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Questions About Crime and Imprisonment• Do these disconnected trends between

crime and imprisonment make any sense?

• Why did crime increase so dramatically in the fifties and sixties?

• Why did crime level off in the seventies and eighties?

• Why has crime declined since 1990?

• Why hasn’t imprisonment declined as well?

Report of the Department of Report of the Department of Corrections and RehabilitationCorrections and Rehabilitation

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Question?Question?

• All this is fine and dandy. We are studying criminal justice, but how does it affect me?

• Or, more to the point, how does it affect you?

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The Eggplant That Ate ChicagoThe Eggplant That Ate Chicago

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The Daily BeastThe Daily Beast

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The Economics of Crime Control• Objective: minimize the sum of damages

to victims and expenditures on the criminal justice system– Damages to victims = loss rate* offenses, or

in symbols r*of– Expenditures on the criminal justice system,

abbreviated CJS, for law enforcement, trials (district attorneys, public defenders, judges) and operating jails and prisons

Graphics: expenditure on CJS is easyGraphics: expenditure on CJS is easy

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$

Expenditure on criminal justice system, E on CJS, $

45 degrees

The Graphics of Crime Control, The Graphics of Crime Control, if Crime Is Controllableif Crime Is Controllable

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Offenses, OF

E on CJS

OF(E)

The Graphics of Damages to The Graphics of Damages to Victims, if Crime Is ControllableVictims, if Crime Is Controllable

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$

E on CJS

r*OF(E)

The Graphics of Damages to The Graphics of Damages to Victims Plus Expenditures on CJSVictims Plus Expenditures on CJS

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$

E on CJS

r*OF(E)

45 degrees

The Graphics of Total Cost, TCThe Graphics of Total Cost, TCTC = r*OF + ETC = r*OF + E

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$

E on CJS

r*OF(E)

45 degrees

Total Cost (E)


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$

E on CJS

Total Cost (E)

Minimum Cost

Optimal Expenditure

Economic Paradigm1. Choose objective

e. g. minimize sum ofdamages to victims plus expenditures, E, on CJS

2. Describe states of the world (options for choice)

Total cost curve (E)

3. Choose the best option

What Have We LearnedWhat Have We Learned• Even if crime is controllable, the optimal

level of crime ( and damages to victims) is not zero

• There comes a point where spending more on crime control, i.e. the CJS, costs more than is saved by reducing damages to victims, and this is where total costs start to rise above their minimum

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What If Crime, Or Some Types What If Crime, Or Some Types of Crime, are Not Controllableof Crime, are Not Controllable

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The Graphics of Crime Control, The Graphics of Crime Control, if Crime Is Uncontrollableif Crime Is Uncontrollable

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Offenses, OF

E on CJS

OF(E)

The Graphics of Damages to The Graphics of Damages to Victims, if Crime Is UncontrollableVictims, if Crime Is Uncontrollable

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$

E on CJS

r*OF(E)


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$

E on CJS

r*OF(E)

45 degrees

Total Cost (E)

Minimum TotalCost is noExpenditure onCJS, E=0

0

optimum

What Did We Learn From What Did We Learn From Prohibition, 1919-1933?Prohibition, 1919-1933?

• The argument was: misuse or abuse of alcohol can have bad effects– Drunken husbands beat their wives– Drunken mothers mistreat their children

• But the majority of people did not want to give up alcohol– Following the passage of the Volstead Act in 1919,

we witnessed rum-runners, speakeasies, people making beer and bathtub gin

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Rum RunnerRum Runner

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http://www.hoboes.com/http://www.hoboes.com/Politics/Prohibition/Notes/Politics/Prohibition/Notes/

Drinking/Drinking/

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Summary of Topics TodaySummary of Topics Today• Syllabus: course details

• Syllabus: Assignments by Lecture Number

• Current Criminal Justice Policy Issues

• Trends in California imprisonment and crime levels

• Questions about crime trends and imprisonment trends

• Higher Education Or Prison Cells?

• The Economics of Crime Control

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Preview of Some Coming TopicsPreview of Some Coming Topics

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Deaths from:AutosDrugs& Guns

Social WelfareSocial WelfareSocial WelfareSocial WelfareThe Impact of Crime on SocietyThe Impact of Crime on Society

Next Time

economics 160

Documents

crime rates

california imprisonment

crime trends

crime levelsquestions

crime declines

imprisonment rates

seventies imprisonment

california state prisoners