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Short-term outlook for meat markets
Edit Konya – DG AGRI, Unit L.2, Economic analysis of EU agricultureBrussels, 29 June 2011
Introduction• Introduction
– DG AGRI produces the meat balance sheets regularly, 3 times per year;
– Structure: Overall EU market balance and balance sheets for beef, pork, poultry and sheep
– Used database: EUROSTAT - Comext– Covered timeframe: from 2009 to 2012, graphs from 2000 to
2010– The years 2009 and 2010 are based on historical data,
estimates for 2011 were derived from latest herd and GIP (Gross Indigenous Production) forecast figures. Forecast for 2012 – trend analysis, assumptions.
– Regular discussion between market experts within DG AGRI– Presented version: June 2011– Graphs – in 1 000 t carcass weight equivalent.
Overall meat market balance
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Prod
uctio
n, C
onsu
mpt
ion
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
Trad
e, S
tock
s
EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
ProductionConsumption
Exports
Imports
Net exports
Public stocks
Overall meat market balance• 2010
– EU meat demand declined marginally in 2010– Export volumes increased in 2010 (in particular beef and €
weakened against USD → improved EU export competitiveness)– While imports have fallen (lower EU internal demand)
• 2011 and 2012– Estimated slight increase in production in 2011– Imports would fall and exports would increase in 2011 but the
trend is expected to reverse in 2012– Overall meat consumption would stay at the same level of 2010
and would increase in 2012
EU-27 Beef/veal market balance
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n, C
on
sum
pti
on
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Tra
de,
Sto
cks
EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
Stocks
Exports
Imports
Production
Consumption
EU beef and veal market• 2010
– The export was strong, the EU became net exporter (concerning all beef products) – for the first time since 2003
• 2011 and 2012– Meat production is expected to remain at the same level in
2011 and to decrease in 2012– Forecasted decline in beef exports both in 2011 and 2012– Live imports would continue decreasing but meat imports are
foreseen to increase– Overall consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and
decrease in 2012
EU-27 pigmeat market balance
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
12 500
15 000
17 500
20 000
22 500
25 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Pro
du
cti
on
, C
on
su
mp
tio
n
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
Tra
de
EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
Exports
Consumption
Production
Imports
EU pork market perspectives• 2010
– Feed prices started increasing in summer 2010 + dioxin scare– Production and meat export increased
• 2011 and 2012– In response to the difficult market situation private storage was
introduced in February 2011– Production is expected to grow slowly in 2011 and then to
stagnate in 2012– Both live and meat exports could exceed the 2010 volumes in
2011– Consumption would decrease slightly in 2011 and then
increase next year
EU-27 poultrymeat market balance
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
7 500
9 000
10 500
12 000
13 500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n, C
on
sum
pti
on
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Tra
de
EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
Production
Consumption
Exports
Imports
EU pultrymeat perspectives• 2010
– Production increased compared to 2009– Declining meat import trend continued– Meat exports increased sharply– Consumption was close to stagnation
• 2011 and 2012– Production is expected to increase slightly both in
2011 and in 2012 (higher EU domestic demand)– World demand for poultrymeat is growing– Consumption would increase slightly in 2011 and in
2012
EU-27 Sheepmeat balance
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1 050
1 200
1 350
1 500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n, C
on
sum
pti
on
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Tra
de
EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
Production
Consumption
Imports
Exports
EU sheep meat market perspectives
• 2010– Demand for sheep meat weakened – Consumption fell, reduced breeding flock– Live and meat imports to the EU fell
• 2011 and 2012– Production is forecasted to continue falling in 2011
and in 2012 as well– Consumption is expected to fall in the following two
years– Lamb import would increase (New Zealand)
Concluding remarks – for 2011• Feed prices remain at very high if not increasing
again• Prices for energy have been increasing since
2011• Both import and export trade volumes remain
largely unchanged in total terms (shifts in origin/destination naturally according to relative prices)
• Consumption of beef, pork and sheep meat would have decline with poultry slightly up
• Stabilization in EU meat demand
Thank you for your attention!