Editor's Welcome

Welcome, welcome, welcome to Issue 12 of On Course Profits magazine, which means

we have been now sharing free systems and strategies for a full year now.

This month we have a great article from man of the moment Dr Nick Hardman which

identifies sires whose offspring will win us some profit this winter.

Gold members get the extended report with further winning sires shared.

By the way if you want to learn more about Nick's methods you can get a full Race

Trends how to as part of Gold membership - Click Here.

Moving on we have the Three Amigos system. It looks like Wendy has found a real

winning angle here and I'm excited for the selections this one will produce over the

winter.

We also have a Q and A with stats expert Mark Foley, the story of a big spending

exchange trader as well as our usual Product Reviews and Tipster Tables.

Finally we have an introduction to the Art of Staking.

I hope you enjoy this issue.

Happy Punting

Darren Power

Cost: £15.00 inc UK P&P

To coincide with the National Hunt season gearing up to full swing again the new

edition of Jumping Prospects is now out and is a must read for all jumps followers.

160 pages containing twenty stable interviews including Kim Bailey, Peter Bowen,

David Bridgwater, Rebecca Curtis, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball,

Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Neil King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald

McCain, Paul Nicholls, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden,

Tim Vaughan and Harry Whittington.

The horses detailed in last year's publication won over 250 races, 100 of which had won

by the end of November!

Get your copy HERE!

Bred for speed – the influence of the sire

on sprint horses

A few months ago we looked at the influence of sires on the ability of their progeny to

race on specific types of going. This month we continue that theme but we will be

taking a look at those sires whose progeny make the best sprinters.

We all know that classic sires like Dubawi, Galileo and Saddler’s Wells have a huge

influence on stamina but which sires have the biggest influence on speed?

Many of the prestigious flat races, including all the Classics, are run at distances over a

mile or further and so the general racegoers will be more familiar with middle distance

sires. The influence on speed is not talked about as much, simply because the sprint

racing calendar has fewer Group races.

In this article we look to redress the balance and highlight the speedy sires whose

progeny are profitable to follow. We will be looking exclusively at the performance of

their progeny over race distances between 5f and 6f and we will be looking at the period

from 2008 to present.

There are quite a few races each year over 6 ½f but we will stick to the shorter sprint

trips in this analysis. We will also factor in the ground conditions to and see if there are

any combinations of sire and speed we can put in our note books for the seasons ahead.

Red Clubs

Red Clubs was crowned Champion European Sprinter in 2007 on the back of his

Haydock Sprint Cup victory that year. That was on the back of winning the Coventry

Stakes as a 2yo and the Greenham and Diadem Stakes as a 3yo. He stood as stallion at

Tally-Ho Stud from 2008 to 2010.

He has produced 88 turf sprint winners during his career at stud, although the strike rate

of 11% would put a lot of punters off. The table below is the record of his progeny

racing over 5f and 6f:

His first progeny hit the racecourse in 2011 and hit the ground running with 25 sprint

winners at a strike rate of 13% which produced a profit of £73.11 to level £1 stakes at

SP. As you can see from the table below, the progeny of Red Clubs endured a barren

run with regards to profit in the following two years but were back on track in 2014 and

2015.

Sadly, Red Clubs died of an injury sustained whilst standing at stud in early 2011 and so

we may only get a limited chance to see his offspring in action over the next few years.

His current older crop (Aged 5yo and 6yo) have still produced 21 winners from 137

runners at a strike rate of 15% and are showing a profit of £120.46.

What is really interesting about the offspring of Red Clubs is that their overall record on

good ground or worse is exceptional compared to firmer ground. The statistics show

that they won 61 (69% of all winning races) on good ground or worse, with the highest

strike rates coming on good to soft and soft going.

In 2015, the progeny of Red Clubs had a 20% strike rate in sprint races on good ground

or worse and produced a profit of £60.75. Sprinters have a decent racing life span and

whilst the youngest of his progeny will be 5yo next year, it is still worth keeping an eye

on them for 2016 flat season.

Summary

Sire: Red Clubs

Race distance: 5f and 6f

Going: good, good to soft, soft and heavy

Speightstown (USA)

One of the most successful sprint sires in terms of level stakes profit is Speightstown.

The American super horse won 10 of his 16 races, the highlight being the Breeders’

Cup Sprint in 2004. In his 6yo season he won his final 4 races (all at Grade 2 and

above) over 6f, culminating in that Breeders’ Cup Dirt Sprint success. Perhaps his most

well-known offspring to race in Europe include Tropics and Hathal.

The overall record of his progeny is shown in the table below:

His progeny have been profitable to follow in sprint races every year since 2011:

Most of Speightstown’s career wins came over 6f and he has certainly handed down

that trait to his offspring. 25 of the 39 victories by his progeny have come over 6f at a

strike rate of 18% and have returned a level stakes profit of £76.92. His runners over 5f

and 5 ½f have produced 14 winners at a strike rate of 14% and show a very small loss

of £3.71.

In terms of going preference we see the opposite of the progeny of Red Clubs who

prefer good and softer ground. In contrast, the progeny of Speightstown have a superior

record on good and good to firm ground. 32 of the 39 winners since 2008 have been on

these two types of official going. His progeny are 0-18 on soft or worse:

Speightstown won plenty of races on dirt in the USA and it is no surprise to see his

offspring do well on the artificial AW tracks in the UK. Since 2008 he has produced 34

winners on the AW at a strike rate of 19% and a profit of £50.29. His offspring have a

24% strike rate at Southwell producing a profit of £35.69.

Looking towards the AW season I can also tell you that his offspring are 3-7 at

Chelmsford City so definitely watch out for his runners at the UK’s newly refurbished

AW course. If we combine his runners on the AW with his runners on turf on good and

good to firm ground we end up with the following record:

That might just be a system worth following in the coming months as we move into a

new AW season. The flat runners will probably not be seen until next season when they

get their preferred ground conditions:

Summary Sire: Speightstown

Race type: Turf and All Weather

Going: firm, good to firm, standard (AW)

Race distance: 5f and 6f (turf runners better over 6f)

Many American bred sires produce progeny who have a far superior record on the AW

than they do on turf. With the flat season drawing to a close and the AW season about to

kick off, it is worth exploring other sires whose progeny may well be worth following

over sprint trips for the upcoming AW season.

Before we look at the AW I want to take a look at what I call the “the new kids on the

block”. These are first and second season sires whose progeny have hit the ground

running and who should give us plenty of betting opportunities in the years to come.

First up is Starspangledbanner.

New kids on the block

Starspangledbanner (Aus)

Starspangledbanner won 7 of his 27 races, the highlights being the Golden Jubilee

Stakes at Royal Ascot and the July Cup at Newmarket. Those back to back wins were

followed by a 2nd in the Nunthorpe to 100/1 shot Sole Power.

He had a failed attempt at stud in 2011 and was then brought back into racing but he

was not the force of old. He returned to stud in 2013 and his first progeny hit the tracks

in 2014. So far his progeny have run 95 races over sprint trips and have won 21 times.

That’s an excellent 22% strike rate and they have returned a profit of £32.63.

2015 was a good year with12 winners from 57 races (21% strike rate) and a profit of

£35.72.

His progeny include Dawn’s Early Light, Anthem Alexander and Ocean Sheridan who

have all won multiple races over sprint distances. 10 of those 12 winners were over 5 ½f

and 6f. His progeny are 0-6 on the AW so stick to his turf runners for now.

Summary Sire: Starspangledbanner

Race distance: 5 ½f to 6f

Canford Cliffs

Very much a new kid on the block, Canford Cliffs was a top class horse who won 7 of

his 11 races. He won 5 Group 1 races and a Group 2 race over distances of 6f to 1 mile.

The performance of his first crop of 2yo runners over sprint trips is shown below:

His progeny will make excellent milers in the future and no surprise to see that his first

crop of 2yo’s perform better over 6f than 5f. I would stick to that age group and that

distance for the simple reason his second season offspring will most likely step up to 7f

and a mile. Canford Cliffs was, after all, a top class miler and not an out and out

sprinter.

With 2yo’s being largely introduced to the racecourse over 5f and 6f it makes sense to

stick to this age group, especially over 6f.

Summary Sire: Canford Cliffs

Race distance: 6f

Age: 2yo

For the All Weather Sprint Sires who will make profit for you this winter checkout On

Course Profits Gold

For more information

CLICK HERE

A Q & A with Mark Foley of Football

Forecasts

The man behind Football Forecasts, Mark Foley, talks to us this month and gives us an

insight into the sports which give him something to smile about and his opinion on a

certain bookmaker, which may surprise you.

1. Tell us a little about Mark Foley, what is your background? Where does your

interest in Football and Horse Racing come from?

I was born in the second most deprived area in London. My interest in horse racing

came from my cell mate in Wormwood scrubs.

2. If you had to choose, which sport gives you the most enjoyment Football or

Horse Racing, and why?

Football, with the exception of Cheltenham. I love the buzz of Cheltenham, the only

thing in football that has bettered it was the 2012 Champions League final. As one of

the fateful 12,000 when Chelsea needed to beat Oldham on the final day of the season in

1983, the feeling after so many Champions league “mishaps” was truly emotional.

We did the impossible by coming back from a goal down at Barcelona with 10 men and

then we beat the best team in Europe in the final at their home ground. People say

Chelsea were lucky, but how can you be lucky when you beat the best two teams in the

tournament; as Oscar Wilde said to lose one child is unfortunate, to lose two is careless.

If Wenger and Pellegrini finally realised that you need to be able to defend to win the

Champions league, the record of the English teams in The Champions league would

have been so much better in recent years. Two very experienced managers who

somehow fail to realise that you cannot win a knockout game in the first leg, but you

can lose it.

3. Where do you start your research to pull together the numerous facts and

statistics you produce in your articles / selections?

By reading what everyone else who knows far more than me has written.

4. Is there anything you would like to see changed in the sport of football? Why?

I truly believe we should play with a rugby ball it would make the game far more

interesting, especially for goalkeepers. Gelding referees would be my 2nd option, or

alternatively introducing as much video technology as possible.

(We take it from that that Mark isn't a fan of referees).

5. What about within the gambling industry as a whole? There is many a critic of

bookmakers and there treatment of their customers? Is this something that you

have any strong opinions on?

Paddy Power should be made an honorary Knight; the man transformed the industry and

made it far more punter friendly. My daughter was in his box for Cheltenham Gold Cup

day last year and said he was one of the nicest and most down to earth men she had ever

met.

Biggest bugbear is rule 4, a late withdrawal, especially if the horse is short priced and

the bookies win twice over.

6. We understand you are a Chelsea supporter for your sins. Why Chelsea? What

makes them the team of choice?

When I was knee high to a grasshopper all of my friends supported QPR, I have never

been afraid to be different and go against the grain and decided to support the team they

all hated.

7. What style of approach to betting do you take on a personal level, i.e. singles,

multiples, exchange trading etc.?

Whatever represents the best opportunity to profit.

For years the mantra was that multiples were a mugs bet, but once Powers and Betfred

introduced triple the odds for a single winner in a yankee, it became a value bet,

especially each way.

8. How do you deal with inevitable losing runs and do you have any advice for

aspiring punters who may be starting out on their journey in to the gambling

world?

The size of your bets should be limited to an extent that it doesn’t affect your

judgement; it makes it easier to be disciplined and not apply Gresham’s law. (For the

99.99% of sensible people who do not have a degree in economics, that’s when bad

money drives out good).

As a rule my bets tend to be long shots, so long losing runs are inevitable. What many

punters fail to realise is that even backing odds on shots can result in long losing runs,

so losing runs are inevitable at whatever price you back. Human nature means that a

punter will bet more on a short priced selection, long losing runs don’t seem to hurt so

much to smaller stakes and the feeling of joy when you have a 25/1 winner is

exponentially far greater than a 4/6 winner.

I’ve never bet to huge stakes, I would much rather bet within my means to level stakes

and accumulate. Boring to some people, but I’ve witnessed first-hand how much

pleasure a long priced winner can give people.

9. What do you do to relax and unwind? Any interests outside of the sporting

world?

I cannot relax, I always have to be doing something; time is the most precious gift we

have and I would hate to waste it, I am an insomniac and survive on four hours sleep a

day, I find very few things boring and love new experiences.

I suppose a 15-20 mile walk in The Lakes, Wales or The Highlands is the closest I get

to relaxation, in Winter you can often walk all day and not see another soul. Travelling

has been my biggest vice ever since I was a spotty 16 year old, the world is a big and

wonderful place and I want to see as much of it as possible before I die and the more

remote and weird the better.

Music is a blessing it can stir the emotions just as much as sport and I still love going to

see up and coming indie bands at small venues.

10. What does Football Forecasts offer its customers that other services do not?

Why is it different to other football services?

Football Forecasts was originally launched last year; 534 bets were given over the

season which returned an 84 points profit and resulted in a 168% ROI (Return on

investment). Eat your heart out Barclays, Lloyds and the TSB, even if you are paying a

fortune for a top financial advisor or a stockbroker you would have struggled to match

that.

I fully appreciate that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and past performance is no

guarantee of future performance, as the financial institutions love to tell us as they cover

their own arses.

The service isn’t perfect, the recommended bets showed a loss of 25 points in

November and 26 points in January. February and May also showed nominal losses,

unlike other services we don’t try to hide the bad news (every recommended bet from

last season can be found here.

When its right it’s spectacular though; September and October returned profits of over

20 points and December and April over 35 points profit.

It isn't a typical football tipping service that will tell you to do Chelsea, Arsenal and

Man City in a treble or advise both teams to score at around 5/4, ideal for the punter

who likes to bet big stakes.

It isn’t a safety first back a favourite at odds on service, I like to think outside the box

and land big touches and that means getting it wrong more than I get it right.

As someone who has been going to football matches for over forty years and loves to

watch games down the pub with real football fans, I know that most football fans like to

land a touch. They prefer to bet small and to land a touch and bragging rights.

I’m not going to give you a load of bull and tell you that the service is going to be as

successful this year as it was last year, I can’t do that, gambling is unpredictable and

risky by nature, but here are the reasons for feeling optimistic.

I spend an inordinate amount of time researching minority bets, not popular bets. The

bookies traders have to cover a massive spectrum of bets these days and it is difficult to

glean value from the popular bets that most punters back.

The lesser known markets, where they expect a small turnover offer the real value and I

spend an inordinate amount of time spent finding the right type of minority bet to back,

something very few people do and it gives me a massive edge.

The average punter is blind to reality, his psyche will not allow him to believe that tiny

little Crystal Palace can beat mega bucks Man City, even though Palace were flying and

City were struggling. These are what I call “Reality not Perspective bets” and the good

news is that even if the bookies did believe that Palace could beat City they still have to

offer big odds on Palace to be competitive with the other bookies.

Blowing my own trumpet, not only did I predict that Palace would beat City and gave

all the reasons why, but I also predicted the correct score at 18/1!

For more information

CLICK HERE

Spinning the trading Webb

Originally a financial markets trader and a writer for Share magazine Peter Webb is now

synonymous with the betting exchanges.

Who would have thought that in 2000 the emergence of the betting exchange Betfair

would enable this man, when interviewed for The Channel back in 2010, to be able to

state that he was “betting a quarter of a billion on Betfair”.

Like many of us Peter Webb reached a point where he had “reached that point in my life

where I HAD to do something. Despite a lot of success, to carry on in a conventional

career would have killed me!!”

Amen to that brother!

Coming across Betfair for Peter Webb allowed him to shift his allegiance from the

financial markets to the exchanges sports markets. The principles of trading the two are

no different.

In June 2000 Mr Webb joined Betfair as one of their very first customers, reportedly

opening his account within the first seven days of Betfair’s live existence. Since then he

has become one of the most famous.

The first deposit into his Betfair account was reportedly £1000.00, placing his first bet

with just £5.00. He claims that since that day he has NEVER had to add any additional

monies in to his account. At any one point in time he may have up to £250,000 in the

trading account.

So how has this been achieved, why aren’t we all operating this way?

Because of the way that Betfair works in settling their bets it is possible.

Betfair settles their bets as good as instantly. If you have a successful bet or trade your

monies are immediately returned to your betting account together with any profits. The

money turnaround is quick, place your bet, bet is settled, place your next bet, and so it

goes on.

With sometimes five or more race meetings a day, and seven or eight races per meeting,

the maths is simple.

His background as an ex Compaq and Medion man meant that Webb had a good

knowledge of computers and this knowledge helped him to develop strategies which he

hoped he would be able to use to beat the Betfair markets. This innovative and creative

thinking meant that he became successful, in fact very successful at trading on the

Betfair markets.

Being able to build his own pc’s, upgrade his software regularly to ensure an efficient

trading platform and working comfortably with six pc monitors at any one time, we

struggle with just the one, means an efficient trading system is always in operation.

Webb trades on the Exchanges as you would trade on any financial market.

He will back a horse to win its race (let’s assume at 4.00 or 3/1 in terms of fractional

odds), and assuming that the horse is well favoured on the betting exchange the price

should start to shorten.

When this happens Webb will then back the horse NOT to win its race (or lay the horse

back) at the lower price on offer, say 3.75, or 11/4 in fractional odds terms.

On this basis he can make a profit on the race no matter what the outcome and he will

do this for multiple horses in any one race, and importantly before the race has even

begun.

Admittedly the actual price movements may not be as significant as in the example

above, and the price differential may in fact represent only one or two clicks difference,

but the principle is exactly the same, and when repeated the compounding effect can be

significant.

In a recent press interview Webb stated that he closes ALL of his bets 10 seconds before

the race is due to go off, and he will not start placing any bets until ten minutes before

the off at the earliest.

Many of you may have noticed that in this time window on the Betting Exchanges the

majority of the monies on any race tend to come in. The last five minutes or so before

the start of a race and the prices move rapidly in all directions.

A clinical approach has to be adopted.

He has no interest in the race itself, in fact he will have already moved on to the next

race before the last race has even finished and be looking at how to best trade on that

race. It is a numbers game pure and simple. Emotion does not come in to it. Each trade

is a pure financial transaction.

His success has been instrumental in inspiring numerous individuals to have a crack at

trading and many of these now to fit in to the bracket of the high profile trader having

attended one of his seminars or workshops they have learned from the master.

Webb’s whole approach to horse racing has nothing to do with form study, sire

statistics, or any other criteria commonly used in horse racing betting. He states that his

sole aim is to estimate where the price of a particular horse will go next and capitalise

on it. He is very clear in that he explains trading is simply a form of spread betting.

To be able to exploit these opportunities Webb realised that he needed not just the

strategies but also the tools to achieve the results he knew were possible.

This approach and his success led to the development of what is today considered to be

one of the, if not THE leading sports trading platforms – Bet Angel.

Bet Angel for Webb “encapsulates the knowledge and skill I’ve picked up over the time

I’ve been in the market”.

The Exchanges are “fairer” than standard bookmakers and they can also offer the

opportunities for some amazing success stories for individuals from all walks of life if

they are willing to put in the commitment of work and hours”.

Note there is an important phrase in the quote above, “commitment of work and hours”.

Bet Angel does not purport to be a Get Rich Quick tool. Like anything worth having it

requires you to put some effort in.

He says that he doesn’t want people to think that it is a route to Get Rich Quick because

it isn’t, as he says, “you have to work at it”, and as we are all aware this is true of any

success in most things in life.

Racing can be going on all over the world and all hours of the day and night, Webb will

readily work the early hours of the morning to trade on Australian racing, or late

evening to trade the US markets. Wherever the opportunities are you have to take them.

Webb didn’t hit the ground running straight away though but his perseverance and

commitment to “achieve some astonishing things” is a lesson we can all learn from. One

lesson we can all learn is that if the tools are not available for you to do what you would

like to, then, invent them!

In itself Bet Angel is we suppose best considered as an information portal of exactly

what is happening, on the betting exchange, combined with the capabilities of an eBay

sniping tool.

“It's a trading tool and allows you to place orders quickly. We borrowed ideas and

technology from financial markets, and it allows 'fill kill', stop losses, and charting.”

Bet Angel is not just restricted to horse racing though any of the markets can be covered

although the three most popular are horse racing, football and tennis.

Like many professional traders arbitrage appears to have been his starting point but he

soon realised that he could do more, much more than just arbitrage bets.

He reports on his blog that the early days on Betfair were slow in terms of the size of

the markets available. The first race on Betfair had a market size of just £3,400.00 and

“most of that was people in the Betfair offices matching themselves!”

So what about now?

In March this year Betfair was valued at £1.95bn. Their 2014 annual report quotes

1.1million customers worldwide, 3million bets placed per day, and they are licensed in

10 territories.

Mr Webb certainly never imagined that he would become one of Betfair's leading

customers and place bets to such an extent that he can turn over a quarter of a billion

pounds annually on horse racing trading alone, let alone the additional trading

opportunities that the reality TV and X Factor markets can offer, and he STILL

continues to make a profit.

Peter Webb’s Bet Angel is his invention and he has earned not just from its creation but

also from using it himself. He says “Bet Angel is unique in that it’s the only one that has

earned more for its creator through using it rather than selling it!”

Obviously he will not divulge how much profit he ACTUALLY makes trading on

Betfair but he does openly say that he may be profiting by a mere percentage of a

percent on any one trade.

This in itself demonstrates how committed you need to be to ensure that the profit is

accrued as it is easy to slip up and find yourself in a losing position.

He often still has people say to him that what he does is not possible, but he continues to

demonstrate that it is.

He also continues to maintain his financial investments and at one particular

shareholder meeting he had an interesting conversation with Mr Warren Buffet. The

backbone then of Mr Buffet’s business was insurance and Webb asked how Mr Buffet

reconciled his strong anti-gambling views with his risk related business.

“When I look at the insurance industry I see an industry based on probabilities and

people not knowing those true probabilities. Money is being made for the house in the

same way I see it being made in the gambling industry,” said Webb.

“Gambling involves creating risk that doesn't need to be created,” replied Buffett.

“If you want to go out and gamble on a where little ball is going to fall on a wheel that's

revolving, that's a created risk. You can watch a football game without betting on it, but

you can't live in a house on the Florida coast without having a risk that your entire

investment can disappear. But I hope that you're right and that the house wins in both

cases.”

Subscriptions for Bet Angel are what fund its continuing development. The Trader

version will cost you just £6.00 per month, but you can step up to the professional

package £30.00 per month.

A worthy read is Peter Webb's blog. Here you will find a five part series of his “Trading

Journey” from his childhood days with his ZX81 cajoled from his father to his first leg

of his trading journey in 2000, his Betfair teenager birthday in 2013 to the present day

because yes, unlike many he is still blogging AND still trading.

For more information

CLICK HERE

The Three Amigos

Assuming that you are old enough to remember the hapless trio of Steve Martin, Chevy

Chase and Martin Short who starred in the 1986 film The Three Amigos you may well

be thinking that this month we are looking to point them in the area of a new career

away from acting and in to the world of gambling, but no.

Following on from the Creatures of Habit system in our previous issue we have for you

this month further trainer angles which we can take advantage of during the month of

November.

Thankfully we are not reliant on the hapless trio mentioned above but three trainers who

have a connection and an uncanny knack of making consistent profits from a particular

type of National Hunt race, the Handicap Hurdles.

Our trainers in the spotlight are Kevin Bishop, Victor Dartnall and Anthony Honeyball.

Kevin Bishop

Kevin Bishop is based at Barford Park Stable, Spaxton, Bridgewater, Somerset.

He started his training career back in 1979 and currently has a relatively small string of

around 10 horses which is highly likely to keep him well under the radar of many a

punter.

And we intend to use this to our advantage.

The yard had tasted success at the highest levels over the past few years with horses

such as Ashley Brook and Battle Group both winners at Aintree.

Battle Group recorded the remarkable feat of winning twice at Aintree at the same

Grand National Meeting in April 2013. Having switched yards he made a winning debut

for Kevin Bishop winning the Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) by ten lengths

on the Thursday. Two days later Battle Group followed up by winning the John Smiths

Handicap Chase, a Listed race, by sixteen lengths. On both occasions he attracted solid

market support.

You can get a good feel for the yards modus operandi if we review the overall

performance of the stable from the last five seasons.

The majority of Bishop’s horses start out in National Hunt Flat races before making

their way on to Maiden and Novice Hurdles.

As can clearly be seen from the table above the National Hunt Flat races are more about

the horses obtaining some track experience rather than looking to place them to win at

that stage.

The table below also shows that a similar approach is taken when the horse are run in

Maiden of Novice Hurdles.

Maiden / Novice Hurdles (2011-2015)

Just the one winner from the 82 runs in Maiden and Novice Hurdles is a stand out

statistic as a negative.

But just look at what happens once those runners have qualified for their handicap mark

and switch to Handicap Hurdles.

Handicap Hurdles (2011-2015)

Suddenly we are in to profit territory and at the Industry Starting Prices we are looking

at a significant profit too.

Victor Dartnall

Victor Dartnall is based at Higher Shutscombe Farm, Charles, Brayford, Barnstaple,

Devon

He first took out a training license in 1998 and currently has approximately 45 horses in

training at his yard.

We can see from the last five seasons record that he is pretty consistent regarding strike

rates across all three types of National Hunt racing, but when we drill down in to the

details it is the Handicap Hurdles which become of interest.

Overall these types of races bring out an improved strike rate and a very solid looking

profit.

Anthony Honeyball

Anthony Honeyball is based at Powell Far, Stables, Mosterton, Beaminster, Dorset.

On the scale of things Anthony Honeyball is a relatively new addition to the training

world obtaining his license in 2006, and currently having some thirty horses in his care.

He began his involvement with horses back at this family home on the Quantocks, and

his father John Honeyball, Master of the Taunton Vale Hunt was also a successful

trainer. Honeyball senior was involved in the early part of the career of that great horse

The Dikler and trained him to win his first point to point race.

Anthony Honeyball baptism into racing was added to by his career as an amateur jockey

for Richard Barber progressing to conditional jockey for Paul Nicholls and riding 45

winners under rules before he embarked on his own training career so he knows the

industry from both sides of the horse.

His Dorset operation which he runs with his rider and partner Rachel Green is proving

very adept at procuring young talent and he uncovered the Chepstow bumper winner

Regal Encore in 2012. The horse was then purchased by the big hitting J P McManus

before going close in second place at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival in the Weatherbys

Champion Bumper.

The past few years have seen Bumper winners come from the yard but they have been

clocking up an increasing improving performance with their Handicap Hurdlers.

The Acorn Principle is based on targeting key seasonal periods and looking to find a

profitable method which others may have missed.

With regard to National Hunt Racing the main part of the season runs from November

to end of April.

If we look further into these three trainers do their Handicap hurdlers prove this? What

if we look at the success of their hurdlers during the summer months of May to Sept?

Summer Handicap Hurdles for The Three Amigos (2011-2015)

Let’s compare this with the period of November to April. We have included April in the

“winter period” as this is the month when we still have big jumps meetings such as

Aintree and the Betfair Chase at Sandown.

The month of October is always considered to be a transitional month from flat to jumps

racing, though this doesn’t mean that it should be excluded completely, but as October

has already passed us by these profits are not going to make our way in to our pockets

unless we have a time machine.

Winter Handicap Hurdles for The Three Amigos (2011-2015)

Clearly our earlier assumptions are confirmed by the contrasting performances during

the summer and winter periods. Both have similar strike rates but the returns are vastly

different.

If we investigate a little deeper we can see how the year on year performance has fared.

Year on year we are looking at a consistency which is certainly encouraging particularly

given that the poorest performance was back in 2011 but still gave a return on

investment in excess of 50%!

When we looked at the individual results using horseracebase it was apparent that a

large number of the runners go off at decent starting prices so we thought we’d take a

look to see how we would have fared had we chosen to back the selections on an each

way basis rather than solely as an outright win bet.

Backing each way would have seen us profit even further.

The longest losing runs during the five year period were 13 selections on one occasion

and 10 losing selection in a row on two other occasions. By backing each way this

would help to smooth out the ups and downs of win only betting.

In fairness we do not consider 13 losing bets in a row a complete disaster. If we have a

modest betting bank to start with we should easily be able weather this minor

depression.

Summary

Trainers to follow: Kevin Bishop, Victor Dartnall and Anthony Honeyball.

Months to follow: November – April inclusive

Race Types to follow: Handicap Hurdles ONLY

Staking: Back selections Each Way

Based on the previous results we will hopefully be looking to generate on average 9

points profit from approximately a dozen or so bets per month during the winter period.

Again this may not appear to be a huge fortune on the face of it but it may potentially

add to our small store of acorns which have been featured previously.

The Midnight Legend – An Updated Approach Last year’s Midnight Legend was not as successful as previous year’s results would

have suggested although it still showed a profit and we still feel that it has merit.

So we decided to investigate a little further into last year’s results to see if there was

anything we could pull from them to refine our selection process.

It became clear that November / December were our worst months and made us a loss

but we performed better in Handicap Races than in the Non Handicap races, and this

also rang true for January and February of this year.

Going forward therefore we feel it would be beneficial to ignore all non-handicap races

with respect to the Midnight Legend.

In addition to this the chasers were the stand out performers and particularly in Soft and

Heavy going with average strike rate of 22-24% dropping to 13% on good to soft.

From this therefore we are going to look this year to concentrate on the mud larks.

We also have a feeling that in more recent years there have been significantly more

progeny coming to their races and this in itself has meant that there have been a prolific

number of selections which can often dilute profits.

So going forward for November The Midnight Legend (Revised) will be:

1. All progeny of Midnight Legend

2. Running in Handicap Chases ONLY

3. On Soft / Soft to Heavy and Heavy going ONLY

4. During the months of November - February inclusive.

We will be adding this to the Acorn Principle going forward.

Finally how are we faring to date with the methods we have added so far?

We hope you also took note of Delargy's horses to follow from last month?

Andy Kelly ran on 19th October and won at 4/1 (5.86 Betfair Starting Price)!

For more information

CLICK HERE

Top Ten Tipsters

Our On Course Top Ten looks to search out those services which over the past three

months have actively produced either, a good strike rate and modest profit or a good

rate of return with a lower strike rate, ideally both.

If your gambling style is risk averse, and you are someone who struggles to handle the

losing runs, then search for a Tipster who is providing a good strike rate with a

reasonable ROI (Return on Investment).

That way you can look to earn steady profits and stand less chance of suffering long

losing runs.

If you are a high risk taker and happy to wait out those long losing runs then you can

look to those Tipsters who may have a considerably lower strike rate, but who tip those

larger priced winners which often give a greater ROI overall.

All of our top ten services are collated based on their performance over a three month

period recorded at level stakes and Best Odds Guaranteed.

If you are new to betting and have time to shop around then you should certainly look to

make the most of the Best Odds Guaranteed prices.

1. Maximum Racing Profits – Strike Rate 48% ROI 146%

A new entry and heading the table is Maximum Racing Profits. Since mid-September

the service had been accruing steady profits backing relatively short priced selections

and by the end of September was in a modestly healthy place of plus 20 points.

However October as yet has not been as productive and the past couple of weeks have

been sticky for the service. Somehow we think that their place at the top of the table

may be taken over if things do not turn around to the positive again soon.

Find out more about the service

2. Betcha Racing - Strike Rate 55% ROI ROI 71%

Betcha Racing is a relatively new service and has started off well with both the months

of August and September claiming more than 40 points profit. With just 4 selections so

far in October and all of them winning ones we can’t fault their selection criteria. Their

staking tends to be 5 points per selection. The largest priced selection so far at the time

of writing in October has been 9/4.

Find out more about the service

3. Rhino Roberts – Strike Rate 35% ROI 45%

August was a relatively quiet month for Rhino Roberts and September decided to make

up for that with a reported 70+ points profit and a 43% strike rate. October has the signs

pf being a stellar month also. To date three selections on 8th October resulted in two

winning bets with Fred Le Macon (8/1) each way and Eric The Third (11/2) Win Only,

and the following Saturday saw three winning bets from four, Tea In Transvaal (14/1),

Sounds Of Thunder (10/1) and Collar Pier (6/1). With performances like that we would

expect to see Rhino Roberts heading up the table pretty rapidly!

Find out more about the service

4. The Monkey Formula – Strike Rate 31% ROI 45%

We have seen The Monkey Formula in previous tables some time ago, but there is a

need to proceed with a little caution. The service has been languishing in the red but

thanks to a very successful day on the 9th October bringing in four winners including

Chain of Daisies 11/1, they will need this good run to continue if they are to still be seen

next month. Consistency has not been seen to be the best.

Find out more about the service

5. ITK Racing – Strike Rate 31% ROI 41%

ITK racing has been seen by us on previous occasions and they re-enter the table this

month supported by a large priced winning selection in the 16/1 shot Blue Hussar.

Without this win though we are not sure whether they would be appear in the table as

September relative to previous months was particularly quiet on the profits front.

Find out more about the service

6. BK Man At The Races – Strike Rate 27% ROI 36%

Another familiar face is BK Man At The Races. September was a volatile month and

ended in the red but with over 160 points recorded profit in the bank for August they

could well swallow the 16 points deficit for September. October has started off on a

much better foot and has already recovered the losses from September at the time of

writing.

Find out more about the service

7. Shrewd Tipster – Strike Rate 34% ROI 34%

Another service which had a very volatile September was Shrewd Tipster though unlike

BK Man they did manage to end up with a minor profit by the end of the month.

October has kicked off to a flyer with the 50/1 shot Energia Davios winning at

Newmarket (SP 40/1).

Find out more about the service

8. Flat Attack – Strike Rate 28% ROI 24%

This service saw September as a healthy month bringing in almost 40 points profit in

September to add to their reported 50+ points in August. October to date though has

proven that what goes up must come down and they are currently languishing in the red

somewhat.

Find out more about the service

9. Mr Smith – Strike Rate 38% ROI 24%

With an exceptional month reported for August of over 100 points profit and a modestly

profitable September in comparison October has started off on a very positive vein too.

This one may be worth keeping a closer eye on.

Find out more about the service

10. Weekender Special – Strike Rate 34% ROI 20%

Another service which pops up its head from time to time is Weekender Special.

Possibly as a consequence of its nature, betting solely on weekend sports fixtures, the

profits are not something you can necessarily shout from the roof tops. This is one more

for the fun punters amongst you.

Find out more about the service

Product Reviews

A look at some of the services and products on the market purporting to be able to make

you a healthy profit.

Soccer Goals Syndrome

Cost: Currently £59.97 for the software licence.

The Trial: This is a soccer betting system which has been devised by “Big Den” and is

being marketed by Steve Davidson”.

Its claim is to have good returns on soccer betting from small stakes and the selection

process should take you no more than 15 minutes per week.

We are not giving too much away when we say that the system has very easy to follow

instructions which show you how to construct Trixie bets, three doubles and a treble

using the Oddschecker site and their Bet basket facility.

The Bet Basket facility is used to ensure that you can obtain the bookmakers most

favourable odds combinations.

With the 10 bets to date there have been one outright winning treble, four doubles and

five losing bets, with each bet using four points.

Our overall profit / losses to date are just over five points to the deficit.

Conclusion: We are holding judgement on this one for now but will let you know how

we get on when we have a few more selections under our belt. In the meantime you can

find out more here.

Rhino Roberts

Cost: £43.00 + VAT for 1 28 day subscription / £86.00 + VAT 90 days / £149.00+VAT

120 days

The Trial: From the Bet Kudos stable Rhino Roberts has had a great run according to

their website over the past three months.

We are hoping that this run continues as we have started following from the very end of

September with just the one selection which was a loser.

Conclusion: Hoping that a successful run can be repeated. Find out more here.

Classic Racing Gold

Cost: £45.00 per month

The Trial: This is a racehorse backing service from Sportsworld Publishing and we

have just recently finished a month trial of the service.

The service made the claim that they had accrued 70+ points profit from just 99

selections.

The selections are delivered by email, normally the evening before the racing and they

advise states whether to back to win or each way, the odds to take and the staking

suggested with the stakes ranging from one point to four points as a maximum bet.

We started the trial the last week of September and during the seven days to the end of

the month we had 17 selections provided, 16 of which were running in Ireland.

The bets were made up of 9 win bets and 8 each way bets. None of the each way bets

won and of the 9 win bets 5 were winners (two of which were maximum four point

bets).

Our overall profit for the week amounted to just short of six points.

Conclusion: A promising start. We’ll wait to see what the following weeks bring and

will report back.

Precision Sports Bets

Cost: £50.00 per month.

The Trial: Following on from last month were received 101 selections of which 32

were winners and we gained a profit of just less than 17.50 points.

Overall we are looking at 48 winners from 165 selections to date and a profit of 21

points.

The majority of selections still come from horseracing with 144 selections producing 42

winners and a strike rate of over 29%. Of the remaining non horse racing selections (21

selections) there were 6 winners and an overall loss.

The down side to this service is as we have mentioned previously, in that there are

anywhere up to three emails a day which arrive at various times, and as such matching

the Betfair prices quoted can be difficult.

Conclusion: The results are good but this service would be difficult for the averaging

worker to follow given the varying time of email deliveries. If you are interested you

can find out more here.

Big Race Bookie Buster

Cost: Free 14 day trial available - £29.95 per month / 74.95 per quarter / 199.95 lifetime

membership

The Trial: Sadly this service has carried on in the same vein as last month with just

four winners from forty one selections and a loss on the month of over 60 points.

Cumulatively we are in the situation where we have had just 7 winners from 87

selections and are in excess of 100 points in the red.

Conclusion: Maybe the next month will miraculously turn things around but as things

stand we cannot recommend this service. Should you still be interested to find out more

you can do so here.

Master Racing Tipster

Cost: 14 day trial available - £59.95 per month / 154.95 per quarter 359.95 lifetime

membership.

The Trial: Things have turned around this past month with 4 winners from the last 7

selections giving a total of 12 winners from 41 bets to date and a profit of 14.50 points

for the month with a cumulative profit of 11 points. (20 winners from 80 selections).

The bets, like many service these days, are given the evening before the days racing and

in truth you would need to move pretty quickly to match the advised prices and Industry

starting prices would have seen you make a loss.

Conclusion: We’ll hang in there for another month before passing final judgement.

Find out more information here.

Mastering The Art of Staking Plans.

There is no doubt that whatever method or service you choose to use to make your

gambling selections, at some point you have to carefully consider exactly how much of

your hard earned cash you are prepared to place on any one particular bet.

You have to plan.

How can you maximise your profits and minimise your risks?

Here is the crux of the problem; no staking plan out there can do BOTH of these things

for you.

One staking plan may be able to help you maximise the profits, but this will

undoubtedly come with risks attached, and one particular plan may limit your risks

BUT mean that you may not capitalise on the winners in comparison to other staking

plans.

Sadly this is the foundation of gambling, weighing up the risks.

When investigating services and selection processes you may hear the phrase does it

perform on a Level Stakes basis?

So what does a Level Staking Plan actually mean, and why is it seen as the bench mark

test as to whether a selection criteria is one which will work or not?

Level Staking

Level staking does exactly what it says on the tin. You select an arbitrary amount per

“point”, say £10.00, and for every bet you place you stake exactly the same amount

irrespective of the price of the selection, £10.00.

Let’s take an example.

You have 10 selections to bet on today and just for illustrative purposes we assume the

first five bets lose and the next 5 bets win.

Staking such as this would mean that you would be able to lose 10 bets consecutively

before half of your betting bank was gone, and obviously to break the bank you would

be looking at losing 20 bets consecutively.

So, are there any advantages to using Level Staking?

1. Well, it is certainly simple to use.

And disadvantages?

1. It doesn’t maximise your profits, but then nor does it minimise the risks.

You may quite often see level staking referred to as the bench mark test for many of the

products and services on sale in the market place.

There is an argument that, if a service can provide a profit when using a Level Staking

Plan then it is a good one, if it can’t then it is unlikely you will be able to make a profit

from it using any other form of staking, in the long run.

Percentage of Betting Bank

Some sites may also refer to the following as Level Staking, which in words it is as you

chose to bet a fixed percentage of your betting bank on each selection, say 5% on every

bet.

If you wanted your first bet to be £10.00 you would need a betting bank of £200.00.

Choosing a lower percentage of your betting bank, say 1% is obviously less risky and

choosing a higher percentage comes with bigger returns but also greater risk.

Based on the above example what would our betting bank look like at the end of the 10

bets.

Okay there isn’t a massive difference in the final bank, but why the difference at all if

Level Staking and Percentage Bank Staking are often considered to be the same thing?

Basically the maths involved in the percentage of bank option means you are actually

betting not only with your original bank but also with part of your profits, and hence

slightly greater returns when you do actually hit a winning streak.

So what are the advantages?

1. Quite clearly your stake reflects your betting bank. A smaller bank will mean that you

will be staking less and vice versa. A run of losing bets will mean that you are in a

position to protect your betting bank, and equally if you are on a winning run then you

can capitalise with a higher stake and hence greater returns.

2. The compounding effect of any wins means that as stated previously you are actually

gambling not only with your own hard earned money but also with those winnings from

the bookmakers. A run of winners will accelerate your profits.

3. Theoretically your betting bank should NEVER be eroded away completely; however

this is not necessarily the case. Many bookmakers and exchanges have a minimum stake

requirement, so if you want to try betting with pennies you may struggle. Saying that if

your bank fell to this level there may be more important things to do like review your

selection method!

And the disadvantages?

1. Long losing runs will mean that when you do finally find a winner the amount you

will have staked on that winner will be significantly smaller than you may otherwise

normally stake. As a consequence you need much longer to recoup any losses

previously incurred.

2. Your biggest bets will be on the losers! As soon as you hit one loser your stakes will

become smaller.

Theoretically sticking to the Percentage of Bank Staking Plan it would take 14

consecutive losing selections to wipe out half of your betting bank. 51 losing selections

and your betting would be eroded completely.

The Martingale System

The martingale System originated in the eighteenth century in France and was popularly

used for the gambling game of the time, betting on the toss of a coin, the heads or tails

bet, in its simplest form.

After every loss the gambler doubles their stake so that on the first win they would

recover ALL of their previous losses PLUS an amount equal to the original stake.

More commonly the Martingale System has been used in the casinos and applied to the

Roulette wheel when playing “red” or “black”, applying the same doubling up

technique as the probability of landing on red or a black number is close to 50/50.

We say close to as of course we also have the 0 which is on a green background.

The laws of probability state that if you have had five blacks in a row surely the next

one up will be a red won’t it?

Actual results produced by using this system have in truth finished off many a betting

bank. The probability is that you could have 100 blacks in a row before landing on red!

You can apply this Martingale staking to any sport but bear in mind that with sports

such as horseracing you are using it on an event where there are more than two possible

outcomes. The result is that the risks are significantly higher.

You no longer have that 50/50 chance of winning, but if you do win then the increased

risks can mean the returns are significantly greater also.

You need to gamble on selections where there is a high win strike rate, regular winners

are essential for this kind of staking plan to work. If the winners are not prolific enough

the betting bank will swiftly be destroyed.

A simple demonstration based on our £10.00 betting.

If we assume that we have a winner at bet number 4 and 9.

Get the picture?

So the advantages…

1. The method is very simple and initially your stakes are small.

2. Your highest stakes will always be on winners (depending on how high you are

prepared to go with your staking of course).

3. If you have hit a successive run of losers and your bank is still in the black and you

can place the next bet and it is a winner you should win back ALL of your losses plus

extra.

The disadvantages…

1. If you have a winning streak you will be staking smaller amounts on the winners than

you do on the losers and therefore you will not be able to capitalise on them.

2. A series of losing selections will mean that your stakes will increase exponentially

and your bank could disappear in a flash!

3. If you win regularly say once in every 3 bets placed you will not win as much as you

would if you were using a Level Staking Plan.

Using a simple 1% of betting bank low risk plan would produce the following results.

The Martingale System is also one of many systems which are referred to as a Loss

Retrieval Plan.

Next month we will take a look at a number of other Loss Retrieval Plans and if they

can work, or are merely just another fast route to emptying your betting bank.