editor's welcome · i hope 2016 was good for you, from a betting point of view, and i hope we...
TRANSCRIPT
Editor's Welcome
Welcome to the January 2017 issue of On Course Profits. Another year and another
opportunity to re-group set some goals and hopefully smash them out of the water.
I hope 2016 was good for you, from a betting point of view, and I hope we helped in
some part with the systems and strategies that we have shared.
This month we have an interview with Peter Ling of the Secret Betting Club. The SBC
is putting a lot of effort into trying to improve the behaviour of the big bookies in the
UK and I recommend that you get along to their campaign page and see what you can
do to help.
Our feature system research this month is the boldly named Deadly Jockey and Trainer
Combinations and as usual Dr Nick has uncovered some angles for us to help bring in
some extra profit over the coming weeks and months.
Wendy has looked into favourites and beaten favourites on the All Weather and after a
few dead ends arrived at the Early Season All Weather system, which will land some
winners over the first few months of 2017.
In his second column this month Nick claims that winning is 50% finding winners and
50% managing losers.
You'd do well to take heed of these tips for managing your money and managing your
mind from a winning punter.
I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.
Happy Punting
Darren Power
Deadly combos – jockey and trainer
partnerships worth following.
The best racing systems are often the simplest.
Not only are they easy to follow and easy to find selections, they are also less likely to
suffer from back fitting – a process where the number of criteria become so big that the
resulting sample size (qualifiers) is not statistically significant.
One of the simplest methods is finding jockey and trainer partnerships that are
profitable to follow. In this article, we will explore these partnerships and see where and
when are the right times to back them.
As always, we will use Horse Race Base but we will limit our search to the past two
seasons. That is because stable jockeys often move around so we want a pairing that has
been firing in the winners very recently.
Without further ado let’s crack on and look for those profitable combinations.
Results will be shown at Betfair SP only. Industry SP is not a good indicator of potential
profit as no one really bets to SP with the bookmakers and the main aim of value betting
is to beat SP. Betfair SP is a much more realistic indicator of potential profits and I
know a lot of people who just back at SP on the exchanges.
Fergal O’Brien and Paddy Brennan
Some way ahead of the rest in terms of overall profit are Fergal O’Brien and Paddy
Brennan. The latter named is a jockey I hugely admire and sometimes he does not get
the credit he deserves. Most famous for riding for Nigel Twiston-Davies and, more
recently Colin Tizzard, it is when he teams up with Fergal O’Brien that he tends to slip
under the radar.
Below is the record of this combination in the last two seasons:
Since the start of the 2015 national hunt season, the pair have combined for 46 winners
from 197 runners at a strike rate of 23% and they have produced profits of £157.18 at
Betfair SP. That is probably something worth following for the remainder of the season
right there, although small stakes or paper trading would be advised to see if the profits
continue. However, it is well worth taking a closer look at the figures to see if they can
be improved upon.
The first thing to note is that it is the hurdlers and bumper runners where the profits lie.
Sticking to the hurdlers and bumper runners the record of the pair in the last two
seasons reads 32 wins from 112 runners (29% strike rate) and a profit of £158.28. A few
of the bumper winners went in at decent prices for good measure.
The hurdle winners are nicely split between handicap and non-handicap races and both
have a decent strike rate and profit.
Another positive thing to note is that the combination has been profitable to follow in
every class of national hunt race, from class 1 all the way down to Class 6.
Rebecca Curtis and Joshua Moore
This is one combination that has certainly set 2016 alight with an impressive 21 winners
from 86 runners for a profit of £196.71. Joshua Moore has quickly established himself
as the stable jockey and that means there should be plenty more in store from this duo.
It is also encouraging that the stable is in much better form this season compared to last
and they have consistently had winners through October, November and December.
Looking at the type of race we see that the chasers are worth following along with the
non-handicap hurdlers.
The chasers in particular have had a fantastic season with the handicappers and non-
handicappers combining for 12 wins from 38 runners and a profit of £56.00 at Betfair
SP (to £1 level stakes). The strike rate is pretty impressive too, coming in at 33.33%.
However, the larger gains have been made with the 5-19 record of the non-handicap
hurdlers.
In fact, those 5 winners have netted a profit of £148.96 at Betfair SP. On closer
inspection, we find that Sweetlittlekitty won at Worcester at 33/1, returning a huge
Betfair starting price of 165.76. Take this one out of the equation and the other winners
went in at 5/2, 6/4 (twice) and 8/11. In other words, without Sweetlittlekitty, these
hurdlers would be showing a loss at Betfair SP.
It is always good to eyeball the data before drawing any firm conclusions. With that in
mind, it is the chasers that look like the ones to follow for the rest of the season.
Tom George and Adrian Heskin
Like the Rebecca Curtis/ Joshua Moore partnership, Adrian Heskin has only recently
joined forces with Tom George but they have already made a good impression so far. In
2016 they have combined for 18 winners from 72 rides (25% strike rate) and returned
profits of £83.13.
Again it is worth breaking those results down into handicaps, non-handicaps, chase,
hurdle and bumper races. Although it is still early days we do find that the handicappers
have produced 12 of the 18 winners. The bumper winners are 4 - 9 and the non-
handicap hurdle and non-handicap chase runners have a record of combined record of 2
- 16.
Sticking to the bumper runners and the handicappers we find they have a record of 16-
56 (29% strike rate) and show a profit of £95.25.
Again, it is important to have a look at the qualifiers as we find that those bumper
runner profits look very big from just a handful of winners. This time we see that Miss
Night Owl went in at 33/1 and a Betfair SP of 67.15. The other winners went in at 8/11,
Evens and 11/2. Take out Miss Night Owl and we are looking at break-even.
However, 4 wins from 9 runners is impressive and I would certainly cast an eye over
this pair in the remainder of the bumper races they team up in this season.
Sue Smith and Danny Cook
If you want more action and are happier with a lower strike rate then the Sue Smith and
Danny Cook partnership could be the one for you. This team has been together quite a
while but the statistics show us that this season is shaping up to be a good one.
The record in the last two seasons reads 33 winners from 201 runners and a strike rate
of just under 16.5% and profits of £122.45. The strike rate may put a few people off as
it roughly equates to 1 win every 6 runners and losing runs will be quite lengthy. It is
worth seeing if those figures can be improved upon by targeting certain races.
The first thing we can do is strike a line through the bumper runners who are just 1-10
in the last two seasons. Next, the non-handicap chasers are 0-17.
These results do not really surprise me as Sue Smith is one who tends to bring them
along slowly, with an eye on handicap races.
I have written articles before about my admiration for Sue Smith and her ability to train
chasers, particularly staying chasers and those that do not mind a thorough slog in the
mud.
No surprise to see then that the handicap chasers are an impressive 21-96 (22% strike
rate) when Danny Cook is in the plate and those chasers return a nice profit of £22.82 at
Betfair SP. However, the hurdlers are where the money has been made and the
combination of handicap and non-handicap hurdlers have won 11 of their 78 races (14%
strike rate). The profits returned at SP are £120.88.
Again, given only 11 of those got their head in front we need to take a closer look at the
winners. In amongst the handicap hurdle winners we find Mr Moonshine, a 33/1 winner
who returned 75.06 at Betfair SP.
In amongst the non-handicap hurdlers we have Cracking Find who went in at 50/1 and a
Betfair SP 91.09. Take these two out of the equation and we are looking at an overall
loss when Danny Cook rides the Sue Smith hurdlers. My advice would be to stick to the
handicap chasers. They may be less spectacular but at least the strike rate is on the
decent side.
The strike rate is not spectacular but the return on investment to Betfair SP is very good.
Those results can easily be improved upon when we find out where those winners are
coming from.
This looks pretty straightforward.
The bumper runners are few and far between and are 0 wins from 6 runs. The chasers
are also struggling, managing just 9 wins from 84 runners. However, the hurdlers are a
different story.
They are 25 wins from 118 runners (21% strike rate) for a profit of £110.89. The non-
handicap hurdlers have been particularly impressive. Quite simply, the hurdlers look
worth following this season. It is worth looking at the current season, especially given
the problems the yard has had. This season, the hurdlers are 20-84 (24% strike rate) for
a profit of £59.71. In 2015/2016 the hurdlers were 5-35 (14% strike rate) for a profit of
£51.18. Similar profit but markedly differing strike rates.
Most people have written off the McCain Jr runners but the statistics suggest the yard is
well on the way to recovering and it is the hurdlers, with Will Kennedy in the plate, that
are leading the way.
For our On Course Profit Gold members this month Nick unearths a further four deadly
jockey and trainer combinations which are not immediately obvious and may well play
to your advantage.
You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here...
http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
A Q and A with Pete Ling of the Secret
Betting Club
1. Hi Pete and many thanks for joining us this month. First up would you tell us a
little about yourself and your background?
My pleasure.
I am 37, English and for the vast majority of my working life have been involved in the
betting industry.
Predominantly this has been helping take on the bookmaker, whether it be as a punter
myself or as more recently, helping others do the same.
My background is as a multimedia designer, which I have to admit I was fairly average
at...Thankfully I was much more skilled when it came to betting!
2. What attracted you to the world of gambling and how and when did you decide
to set up the Secret Betting Club?
From a young age, I was always fascinated with stats and maths, so the attraction to
betting was fairly natural, especially as for me it was such a numbers game.
Early on, I remember building my own betting systems using literally thousands of race
print-outs and looking for patterns and angles I could attack from a betting perspective
(This was before I got to grips with spreadsheets!). Flush with a little bit of early
success, I became more and more involved as a punter. This later involved joining a few
tipsters I found on the internet, although I quickly latched onto the fact that not all of
them were created equally. Some were as good as they claimed, such as Laurence of
Equine Investments - one of the first I discovered and who is still going strong. Others
were a clear scam, yet there was no way of easily figuring out which was which.
Thus, the idea of the Secret Betting Club was born and back in 2006 the service was
setup with my business partner at the time. It’s safe to say that whilst we were good at
betting, we were fairly wet behind the ears about running a business, but our passion
and love of what we were doing drove us on, alongside the genuine belief we were
doing something useful.
3. We understand that you are very much hands on with regards to the Club, what
is a typical working day for Pete Ling.
First things first, it’s all about figuring out what I am going to bet on each day.
Although there are lots of demands on my time running SBC, I do try and isolate at
least 30 minutes at the start of the day to figure out my bets.
Then once they are all placed or lined up, I crack on with the daily agenda for the Secret
Betting Club. This might mean liaising with the SBC team on our reviews or tipster
profit reports, replying to emails from SBC members or various meetings and calls.
More recently, I have been heavily involved with our Better Betting Campaign, which is
calling for a fairer deal for punters and has led to interviews with the likes of the BBC,
the Horseracing Bettors Forum and the new bookmaker, Black Type. All of which has
taken a lot of time and effort to put in place, yet given some of the progress made on
many of the issues impacting punters these days, has been very much worth it!
4. We know that you are an experienced gambler. What advice would you give to
anyone just thinking of starting out in the gambling world given the minefield of
information out there? Are there any key mantras you suggest that they follow?
Firstly when it comes to finding good tipsters - my advice is to look for genuine,
independent reviews, which are not biased by affiliate cuts or profit-sharing by those
writing them. I see too many examples out there of 'review sites' giving a positive
review to a tipster or system simply because they are getting paid to do so. Very often
these products are fundamentally flawed and the reader is the only one losing out.
There is a similar issue with some social media tipsters too, who hype up their ability
and recommend their followers place bets with certain bookmakers.
The only reason they do is that the bookie is paying them a cut of any losses each
referred punter makes. Both the bookie and tipster are in cahoots and its catching lots of
unwitting punters out.
My other key bit of advice would be to spend some time understanding the psychology
of betting and how it impacts you.
Too many punters fall short of winning simply because they don’t know how to handle
losing runs or just losing bets in general. Whether it’s because they are getting too
wrapped up in short-term form (i.e. living out every bet as it happens) or simply by not
setting up with a proper betting bank and/or using money they can’t afford to lose.
The one thing that all true winning punters have in common is the ability to handle
losers. Unless you have some amazing high-strike rate method, most of the bets you
place will lose so you better learn to get used to it!
5. The book maker industry is constantly being criticised these days for their
treatment of their customers with account restrictions etc. Is this something you
have a strong opinion on and if so what do you feel needs to be done to give the
punter a fairer deal?
Don't get me started on this topic, we could be here for hours!
Briefly though, yes, I do have a strong opinion on it - although it’s probably best
visiting the Better Betting Campaign at secretbettingclub.com/better-betting-campaign
to find out in greater detail what that is.
As to what can be done about it? Well we have seen significant progress in recent
months, with widespread media exposure of various unfair practices, the launch of a
joint investigation by the CMA and Gambling Commission into bookmakers PLUS the
very first 'winners welcome' bookmaker for horse racing, Black Type.
We must not sit on our laurels though and its important punters continue to bang the
drum for change, whether that is by driving awareness of the practice of bookmaker
restrictions, demanding answers from their MP, or by informing the Gambling
Commission as to how bookmakers have unfairly treated them.
6. What style of betting do you advocate and use yourself? Would you ever
advocate loss retrievals systems and if so why / why not?
Due to the work I put into running SBC, the time I have left for my betting is a lot less
than I would like it to be these days.
Still, I place several single bets on the horses most days, alongside a good few trixies /
doubles for further interest.
I am a big fan of multiple betting as if you have a good strategy and patience, it can reap
major dividends. Over the summer, I made upwards of £1600 profit from just 3 trixies
and a really simple strategy I wrote about here:
http://secretbettingclub.com/blog/magical-multiples-54-staked-over-3-bets-1600-profit/
I'm not a fan of loss retrieval systems - it’s not something that ever crosses my radar to
be honest. Far better to stick to a sensible staking plan and make consistent profits.
7. What traits do you think make a good tipster service? What should the average
punter consider when investing in a tipping service?
Honesty, Professionalism, Consistency, Fairness, Experience...just a few key things I
look for before I consider joining any tipster.
These days, punters should also watch out for the time of day a tipster puts up bets as if
it’s a racing tipster advising 12/1 shots at 5pm the day before racing, chances are it will
be nigh on impossible to achieve those odds. Evening-before racing markets are
extremely flimsy and even the smallest amount of money for a horse will see its odds
slashed and the accounts placing these bets marked.
I would also recommend only looking for tipsters with at least a 12 month record of
proofed results (and even more if possible). There is a good reason the average age of a
SBC Hall of Fame service is over 3 years - because they have proven themselves again
and again.
Too many punters are taken in by the tipster newcomer with impossibly good records
they can’t ever expect to maintain. Get over the idea there is a 'pot-of-gold' system or
tipster that will change your life forever and allow you to retire early. Stick to the
'boring' guys making a good 15-20% ROI year in, year out.
8. Do you have any personal gambling experiences which when reflecting back
bring a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with
our readers?
Most of my betting is not flashy - I prefer to bet volume and to average stakes so it’s
rare I have 'big winners' to shout about.
Although in saying that, the success of my aforementioned trixie betting strategy was
very enjoyable. It required a fair bit of patience earlier in 2016 with several near misses
before reaping some major dividends over the Summer (not all of which I blogged
about for fear of attracting too much attention to my bookmaker accounts!).
Bet365 are now known by my wife as the bookmaker that paid for us both to go away
on holiday recently.
Grimacing, it’s probably been my form lately as throughout November it seems that
every bet I have placed has lost, whereas every shortlisted bet I narrowly decided to not
place has gone onto win! That's just the way it goes betting some days and months - I
know through experience it will all even out in time and look forward to the rewards
when it does.
9. What does Pete Ling do to relax and unwind? What interests do you have
outside of the sporting world?
When I’m not betting on sport, I like to watch sport - mainly Cricket, Racing & Football
and my beloved Everton. I also try and grab a couple of 5 a side games each week and
get out on my bike as often as the weather allows.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
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The Sundance Kid
The name J P McManus is synonymous with National Hunt Jump racing.
He inherited his love for horses and horse racing from his father Johnny who kept show
jumpers and his early years as a boy reportedly show more concern about placing his
bets than concentrating on his education. While completing his Leaving Certificate
history exam his mind was more on a horse he wanted to back at his local race track.
Being a diligent lad he of course duly finished the exam but then rapidly rode his bike to
the track just in time to see his horse for the day win, but sadly too late to have placed
his bet. On finishing school his father would make him work 5 ½ days a week and milk
the cows on the farm every other weekend but without fail, every Saturday afternoon, he
would be on his way to Alf Hogan’s betting office in Limerick.
In those days in Ireland you would pay a shilling in the pound on win bets in tax in
Ireland with no taxes payable on doubles and trebles. Hogan would pay 10/11, 11/10,
5/6 and 6/5 all as Even money giving the punter a welcome chance, but once the
government increased the betting tax to 20% JP decided it was time to cease betting and
take out his own bookies licence getting his start at Limerick’s Market Field greyhound
track.
He lost money as a bookie on a couple of occasions and found himself going back to
work for his father, but he saw it as a learning curve and gradually, JP honed his
bookies skills.
He always had a personal opinion on most of the horses running and on occasions he
would find that he was laying favourites (because of course that’s what bookmakers
did), but some of those favourites he actually thought had the potential to win their
races, so he changed his modus operandi.
Every spare moment that McManus had, lunchtimes, evenings, he had his betting books
out examining the figures, trying to work out where he had gone wrong, and it finally
struck him. Maybe the odds weren’t always in the bookmaker’s favour. Why did he
have to be only a bookmaker? Sometimes he was laying horses that he wanted to back.
Sometimes the value was with the punter. Why couldn’t he do both? Why couldn’t he
be a punter when the value was with the punter and be a bookmaker when it wasn’t?
And so he started backing the horses he fancied while continuing to lay the ones he
didn’t. Eventually though as other interests took hold he handed the betting licence reins
over to his younger brother about whom he says “No doubt he was better at it than I
was” – Maybe JP liked placing a bet rather than taking one?
“I was lucky when I started to punt,” he says. “There was a notion out there that you
couldn’t do both, you couldn’t be a successful bookmaker and a successful punter. But,
as a friend of mine would say, there’s meat for eating and meat from selling. I tried to
do both, and it worked.”
Looking back it was probably inevitable that he would move in to the world of horse
racing from his bookies background and eventually moving in to the world of horse
ownership. There have been some well-known horses ridden in the JP McManus green
and gold colours too, and he is undoubtedly one of the most prolific horse owners in
racing with more than 100 horses currently in training including a small handful of flat
horses too.
When you look at JP’s involvement in racing all roads lead to the Cheltenham Gold
Cup, but it was a horse called Linden Tree that really set the horse racing passion
flowing for JP. (You may remember the horse from Issue 13).
JP had just turned 20 and placed a £4.00 bet on Linden Tree in a Maiden race at
Newmarket. Linden Tree duly won at 100/8 and JP took home the princely sum of
£50.00. The success meant that when Linden Tree ran in the Observer Gold Cup JP had
to reinvest the said £4.00 at 25/1 which successfully returned him £100.00. The horse
was obviously a lucky charm, so to the Epsom Derby. Linden Tree was running against
the great Mill Reef but JP’s hard earned had to go on Linden Tree given the price of
33/1. This time sadly though the horse was beaten by Mill Reef with Linden Tree
coming in a close second.
As an owner JP McManus’s first big win came in 1982 and was at the course where he
is considered to be part of the furniture, Cheltenham. The horse was Mister Donovan.
He had not owned the horse for long and the tactics of laying the horse out for the race
all proved perfect on the day. Going off second favourite Mister Donovan won the Sun
Alliance Hurdle. When interviewed years later JP said that he couldn’t remember if he
actually won the £250,000 that he was reported to have in the press, but he knows that
he definitely did back the horse and that more than anything he had an immense sense
of satisfaction when the horse won the race.
Possibly his most famous horse though was Istabraq, the three time winner of the
Champion Hurdle.
His first win was “very special” to JP as John Durkan, the man who first spotted
Istabraq’s jumping talent had just passed away after a battle with Leukaemia aged just
31.
“There was a sadness with Istabraq because of John Durkan. I never would have had
Istabraq had it not been for John. And when he wasn’t well, it was he who suggested
that I should send Istabraq to Aidan O’Brien. There was poignancy about Istabraq
because of John.”
“I remember speaking to John after Istabraq had won the Sun Alliance the previous
year, I was in the winner’s enclosure, he was in New York in Sloan-Kettering Hospital,
he was so happy, so overjoyed, and then the next year he wasn’t there. It was quite an
emotional time. It seemed to be more than just a horse race.”
According to JP, winning is all down to luck, and on March 16 2012 while standing in
the Cheltenham stand he watched his horse Synchronised carrying those now famous
racing colours up the Cheltenham hill to win the coveted Gold Cup. He and the trainer
Jonjo O’Neill had planned to run him in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown but
the horse wasn’t ready for that race and so O’Neill felt that it was possibly best just to
go straight to Cheltenham and was in fact quite bullish before the meeting.
Synchronised was given an excellent ride by A P McCoy who let the horse take the
fences at his own pace and kept him well in the race.
When asked in an interview at what point during the race JP thought that Synchronised
would win his reply was “when he had weighed in!” Until he heard the words “weighed
in” he couldn’t enjoy the moment. Of Synchronised JP said that he wasn’t the biggest
horse in the world and you wouldn’t pick him out on looks in the paddock either but he
had a massive heart.
Step forward four weeks later to the Grand National at Aintree.
Few will ever forget JP’s Don’t Push It who in 2010 went on to win the Grand National
Steeplechase at Aintree giving Tony McCoy his first, long awaited and dreamt of Grand
National win but could Synchronised do the double and become the first horse since
Golden Miller to win the Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same year? According
to connections the horse was in tremendous form and had every chance.
Before the race Synchronised was obviously nervous throwing AP McCoy at the start
and that wasn’t a good omen.
As is the makeup of the race jockey and mount were brought down at Becher’s Brook
but a sigh of relief was breathed as both horse and jockey got up appearing unscathed.
Synchronised continued to run freely jumping the fences but then fell a second time five
fences later breaking a hind leg. JP didn’t get to take Synchronised home from that
meeting. He remembers that day as “the saddest day that I have ever had in racing”.
2012 continued a little like a rollercoaster as later in the year the luck went JP’s way
again but this time not in the form of a winner at the race track, but in the form of a win
in a game of backgammon!
Just like the great actor Omar Sharif backgammon is JP’s game and when away from
the racetrack it is said that he travels everywhere with a portable backgammon set which
he will happily produce at a moment’s notice should he be able to find someone willing
to take him on.
The history of the game seems to be a big attraction, having been played by the great
dynasties of Persia and having been banned in France by King Louis IX due to it
capturing the interest of his court. The game was played over 3 days in the US, and was
a serious match against the US billionaire Alec E Gores, a private equity magnate.
Although JP admits that there is some skill involved winning is in fact in the largest part
down to luck and the luck was with JP this time as he walked away from a game having
won €15 million.
The win only came to light in the public domain when it was revealed in high court
papers in the US, with JP’s legal team taking on the US tax authorities (Internal
Revenue Service).
The winnings were paid out by Mr Gore as any true gentleman would, but he withheld
the equivalent of $5.2m to “cover any potential“ tax liabilities within the US. JP on the
other hand sued for the remaining monies on the grounds of a double taxation treaty
between the US and Ireland.
Needless to say The IRS had a differing opinion, particularly as JP is primarily resident
in Switzerland and therefore under their rules he was not considered a resident of
Ireland for tax purposes.
Not one to take this lying down as you would imagine JP continues to fight this case
although his cause has not been helped by Irish tax officials who forwarded a letter to
their US counterparts advising that he had not been registered in Ireland since 1995 for
income tax or capital gains purposes. We think he may need “luck” to win this one.
Ireland though is still obviously his “home” and his passion for the country runs almost
as deep as his passion for horses.
Alongside his impressive sporting and business empires which once included a stake in
Manchester United, but that is a story for another day, he remains a true entrepreneur
and philanthropist, a man who is very generous when it comes to local charities in his
native Limerick.
Diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2008 JP McManus continues to describe himself as
“lucky” that the cancer had not spread, and he has words of advice for anyone who is
diagnosed with the condition in time. Be prepared to give up a few weeks of your life to
get yourself in shape. Go easy on the booze. That way then, when you have the
operation, you can recover much quicker.
"You know a lot of good came out of the cancer. "You see things in a different light. “I
got more out of it than I lost and there was never a day I thought I wouldn't make it."
“In every bad situation, there is good that comes out of it, and that’s the way I’ve seen
it – I’ve seen some positives in my own life.
“It wasn’t all bad, and we came out the other end. It’s an inconvenience – that’s what it
was, more than anything else.”
JP he feels sure that he is a lucky winner.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Tipster Profile
This month's Tipster Profile is the man behind the Super Lucky 15's Tipping Service
from Betfan.
This November the man known only as James managed to produce a massive
November profit in excess of 500 points!
James had always been a keen racing fan when he was younger and gradually got in to
the Sport of Kings with an odd day at the races as many of us do, and from there his
interested started to develop further.
He has a number of friends who are jockeys and "a few links" ;) to different racing
yards and has now been studying the sport professionally for over 7 years.
He puts his punting success down to good old fashioned form studying but admits that it
also helps that he has a few additional criteria he looks in to on the days racing, but he
holds those cards very close to his chest.
Like many tipsters the early days didn't come without the odd mistake or two. James
confesses to have been what he refers to as a "blind bettor". He would throw money
away on his bets and he admits that it was more of a hobby in the old days for him than
the full time job he sees his betting as now.
Spending a good 2-3 hours a morning going through the days racing there are no
specific races which James has added to his bow, he is a man who will look at all of the
race cards on the day, and from there he will ascertain the best selections on which to
place his money on the day. he doesn't claim to have exceptional talent when it comes to
finding those winners, but a good eye and an understanding of knowing what you are
doing which brings success.
Selling race tips always comes with a frown from many a punter, but James sums up
why he is selling his tips very well. He is in a job, and if he doesn't go to work he
doesn't get paid. He spends a lot of time studying the race cards and he certainly doesn't
feel that he should have to give his tips away for free. That said he does also gain a
good feeling when he lands the wins that others are also sharing in the good fortune, and
more importantly that the bookies are being beaten again.
We all know that keeping those bookmaker accounts open can be a problem and his
suggestion to beat the bookie on this level too is to have more than 5 different accounts
and rotate them every time you have a big win. He himself has been doing this for years
now and has only ever had one account closed.
The service offers up Lucky 15 bet selections on most days of the week and the tips are
available by mid-day every day. For James horse racing is probably the best sport out
there to make money on if you just know where to look.
In the past James has landed a healthy £28,000 Lucky 15 which he and some of his
friends were also on so you can be sure that he will ALWAYS be trying to find the next
big win.
You can gain a 28 day trial of James’s Super Lucky 15 service for just £7.00 plus VAT
by clicking here.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
INTRODUCTORY OFFER!
Try Super Lucky 15 today for just £7.00 for the first 28 days.
CLICK HERE
Offer expires 7th January 2017.
ALL WEATHER RACING
Recouping your losses?
One of the most irritating quotes which finds itself trotted out regularly by the horse
racing TV pundits is “the market got it right” usually shortly after a very well punted
favourite has passed the winning post ahead of the pack. It was certainly a phrase well
used by the likes of the old-timers such as John McCririck and Derek Thompson during
their stints on Channel 4 racing.
Certainly, a good number of those at the head of the market do win, but what are the
real facts?
The following table shows the results of clear favourites, joint favourites and co-
favourites during the 2012-2016 periods (end November’16) for all horse races that
took place in the UK ONLY.
On the face of it close to a 1 in 3 win rate and losses of roughly 7 pence in the pound is
not that bad, although clearly this doesn’t demonstrate a likely route to profits unless
you devise a way of sorting the good favourites from the poor ones (cue another
article!).
The above also highlights just how accurate the Betfair exchange is on the outright win
market with less than 3 pence in the pound losses.
If we now take a closer look at the flat racing results by surface we find the following:
The All Weather statistics show just a small loss of 1.30% based on the Betfair SP and
the Strike Rate is just shy of 3% better than the turf counterparts which provide us with
some shoots of encouragement.
But why would that be the case is a sensible line of reasoning, our thoughts are that in
the main the track configurations of the AW tracks are fairly similar in that they are oval
in shape and, in the main, flat although each has its own individual traits.
The field sizes are also limited so at a typical meeting we would have races of 14
runners or less which contrasts sharply with some of the sprint cavalry charges we can
often see on the flat turf cards.
Favourites clearly still get beaten on the All Weather but not to the same degree as their
flat turf counterparts.
That previous statement and the supporting data takes us down a path of considering the
possible opportunities that All Weather racing and the betting market may offer us.
Having carried out a bit of a brainstorming session on the matter one angle cropped up
that deemed worthy of closer consideration.
What happens to a favourite that gets turned over on the AW on its next run?
Depending on which school of thought you choose to adopt, there are folk that see the
“BF – Beaten Favourite ” next to a runner in their racing pages a negative, whereas
others may be more interested to find out why it went off as the favourite last time out
and if there were reasons why it was unable to reward its backers.
To get the ball rolling the following table shows the statistics regrading those horses
which went off as “clear favourite” in their last race and did not find themselves in the
winners’ enclosure.
We will use the same five year period as the earlier data e.g. 2012 – 2016.
Well that certainly doesn’t look like the route to the “holy grail” of profits!
Although the AW meetings take place all year round what if we consider the winter
period only i.e. from November onwards until the resumption of the turf flat campaign?
No change there then….are we going down an unprofitable cul-de-sac?
Just before we move let’s quickly touch on what we consider to be an important factor
in assessing the worth of any method or “system”, namely the A/E you can see at the
end of each of these tables.
Actual versus Expected
We regularly use the excellent horseracebace research tool to carry out many of our
analyses and they give us an explanation of what the A/E is as follows:
A figure based on actual versus expected return. This is calculated as the total number
of wins versus the expected number of wins.
The expected number is based on the official starting price, for example a horse at 1/10
has an expectancy of 0.91, an Evens money shot has an expectancy of 0.50, 2/1 is an
expectancy of 0.33 and 10/1 is an expectancy of 0.09.
When our analysis shows an A/E figure of greater than 1.00 it is an indication that the
returns are better than would have been expected by the betting market and, given what
we have seen earlier, is generally close to getting it about right.
If we therefore build in an additional amount of “meat” in to our methods and systems
and target an A/E of 1.15 or bigger, and then combine that with a sensible strike rate of
winners (approx. 20%), it should hopefully lead us down a profitable path.
Clearly what we have seen so far hasn’t been overly encouraging but before we throw
the towel in on this particular journey let us consider whether there are any trainers
which stand out with their last time out beaten favourites.
The table below details those trainers which have a solid record with horses that went
off as clear favourite last time out and were unsuccessful which then went on to win on
their next outing.
The period covers 2012 – 2016 and the first quarter of each year i.e. Jan through to
March.
If we combine the total performance of the above 16 trainers over the 5 year period we
get:-
If we then sense check these figures by the individual calendar years we see that this
micro angle would have been profitable in all but one, 2014, and that year only dropped
a few points.
Based on the past results we would expect in the region of approximately 20 bets per
month over the three months period, Jan, Feb and March, and these have the potential to
generate around 30-35 points profit over the first quarter of 2017.
If this comes to fruition this time around it would be a handy tally to kick the New Year
off with.
Summary
For the months of January through to the end of March 2017 the selection criteria is as
follows:
The horse must have been a beaten favourite (clear NOT joint or co) on its last run and
is trained by one of the following trainers:-
If you have access to bookmakers accounts offering the “Best Odds Guaranteed” then
these are likely to outperform the returned Starting Prices but equally a satisfactory
alternative could be to simply to place the bets using the Betfair SP facility.
Good luck!
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Are you a gambler? The psychology of
managing losing runs.
A bit like death and taxes, losing runs are inevitable. You just cannot get away from this
fact. Most people believe that to be profitable in this game you need to be adept at
finding winners either through your own analysis, by following proven tipsters or by
using proven systems. Whilst this is true, I would say it is only half the battle. The other
half is money management and dealing with losing runs. In fact, I would say it is 50%
finding winners and 50% managing losers.
With a 50/50 split why do we concentrate 90% of our effort on the former and just hope
that the latter does not happen? In truth, it is more about losing bets than it is about
winning bets. In last month’s article on managing expectation I drew your attention to
the fact the 75% of all my bets lose. The other 25% provide enough profit to make some
nice gains in the year. However, if I cannot manage the 75% of the losers I get, then the
other 25% would not make me a profit. In this article, I will look at managing losing
runs and how doing so can make you a better, and more profitable, punter.
Treat your betting like a business
This has been said many times before and, although the sentence strikes a notion of
boredom, it can really help. I will use my own situation as an example. I am self-
employed. When I don’t work, I don’t get paid. The bills still need to be paid so if I take
a week off, I am effectively losing money. That week accounts for 40 hours pay.
So that’s 40 hours of money I have effectively lost my losing run if you like. Now,
while that hits me in the pocket, and believe me it hurts, I have to take time off. I cannot
possibly work 52 weeks of the year without a break. So how do I go about getting that
40 hours back? I could work 80 hours the following week, but what would happen?
Most likely I would be exhausted and need more time off to recover. More time off with
no pay, increasing my “losing run”.
My approach is simple. I want my 40 hours back but I will get it back slowly. I usually
do an extra 3 to 4 hours a week and in 10 weeks’ time I am back to where I would have
been if I had not had the time off. What I actually do is work about 43 to 44 hours a
week as the norm and then any time off is already banked. In other words my profit
from those extra hours will cover my time off when I need it.
The analogy is simple. Seek to recover from a losing run slowly and not all in one go.
Chip away at those losses and before you know it you are back on an even keel. Try and
get them back quickly and you are going to end up in trouble.
Stick to the plan
One of the biggest knock on effects from a losing run is that you change your approach
in order to try and win back those losses as soon as possible. If you are following a
system or a service that is proven over time then you will recover. What you did to get
into profit, following the advised stakes on the advised selections, is what you must do
when the losing run hits. In other words, do not change anything. Again, I will use my
own experience as an example.
I post selections for the Betting School’s Big Race Analysis. A lot of people follow
these selections and risk their own hard earned money to try and make a profit. That
actually is a pressure situation for me. Knowing a lot of people could lose a lot of
money following my advice is not a pleasurable thought. Fortunately, we have done
well since we started 2 years ago. However, it has not been all plain sailing. We have
had losing runs and quite big draw downs on the profits already banked. Recently we
had a draw down to the tune of 60 points.
Those followers expect me to find enough winners and make them enough profit to
keep them happy. For a period between the end of September and the middle of October
that wasn’t happening. Added pressure. The methods we employ are to find big priced
winners at value odds, taking on a lot of fancied runners in the big races. The winners
had dried up and the previous gains were being eroded. At this point I could have taken
a different route just to arrest that losing run. How about looking at some shorter priced
horses just to get a few winners on the board? What about tipping a lot of 33/1 shots in
the hope one would win and turn things around in the blink of any eye? What about
sticking in a few 3 or 4pt win bets as opposed to our usual 2pt win or 1pt each way?
There were countless permutations.
We bet around 20 – 30pts each weekend. Another bad week and we could be 80 pts
down, another bad fortnight and we would be 100pts down. We use a starting bank of
200pts. If someone had just joined at the start of the losing run they could have
effectively seen half of their betting bank wiped out in the space of 4 – 6 weeks. That is
pressure and pressure leads to bad decisions.
Having been in this game for quite a while, I did exactly what I was supposed to do –
stick to the plan. I know from experience that changing a winning formula when it
momentarily stops winning is a road to the poor house. All winning formulas have a
losing element, they just get through them. Believe me, the temptation was there to
make a few subtle changes to try and get back to winning ways.
If it had worked, it would have been a bad move. It’s a bit like trying to hit your way
out of trouble in cricket when you are batting badly. You may hit a few boundaries but
eventually you will get out. Much better to knuckle down and build your innings slowly
without taking unnecessary risks. I actually played cricket for over 20 years. One of my
coaches told me I could have played at a higher level had I not had I not had the
propensity to try and smash my way out of trouble when things weren’t going to plan.
He even said “the technique was always there but the discipline wasn’t”.
Back to the Big Race Analysis and through that losing run we stuck to the plan. We
kept looking for value and we kept taking on the false favourites. We pulled through by
doing nothing different and October turned out to be a profitable month. It was not the
most profitable we have had in 2016, but it was certainly the most rewarding given we
had got through that losing run and out to the other side with a bit of profit to boot.
Are your really on a losing run?
A bit like “treat your betting like a business”, “think long term” is another phrase that
infers an element of boredom to the casual punter. If you want that rush of a quick, big
win then you are a gambler not a punter. Stick to doing the lottery if you want a sudden
influx of cash or a life changing experience overnight. Long term is definitely the way
to go and with that mentality, the idea of a losing run can appear quite different.
This actually ties in with managing expectations that we wrote about last month. My
expectation is to make an annual profit, not a weekly one and not necessarily a monthly
one. My advice when you hit a losing run is to take a step back and look at how far you
have come since the start of the year.
If you are up £2000 by the end of August and find yourself up only £1750 by the end of
September, you should not be alarmed. Most people view that as being down £250 in
September, and it is true, you are. But long term you are up £1750 in 10 months, not
down £250 in one month. If I said to you that you would be averaging £175 profit for
the first 10 months of the year, you would take it. Concentrate on the profit you have
made since the start of the year and not on the loss you have made in the current month.
The profit curve is not a straight line and never will be. It moves up and down over time
but the average will show a steady increase. Accept this and you will do well. Below is
the profit curve for the Big Race Analysis since we started.
As you can see we have had quite a few downturns. Between June and July 2015 we hit
a losing run. This was consolidated (i.e. it did not get any worse or any better) through
August 2015 and we were back on an upward curve in September 2015. This pattern
has been repeated quite a few times, particularly around December 2015, March 2016,
May 2016 and between September and October 2016.
These were all downturns or losing runs. The profit line is one of a steady upward curve
but along the way it dipped down and then recovered. When you acknowledge that this
is the norm then you will be able to accept and manage losing runs.
There are at least five losing runs in the above graph, where we saw quite a big
downturn in profits. However, by changing absolutely nothing we were able to get
through them and continue on an upward curve. We stuck to the same methods, the
same advised staking and the same types of race (the weekend televised races and the
big racing festivals).
Road testing is important
I appreciate that not everyone has the time or inclination to find their own selections and
if you are one of those then the chances are you are paying for a service or a system.
It is important to try these out before reaching any conclusions. There are some
excellent services and products out there and all the best ones will offer you a refund or
a trial. Those that don’t should be avoided like the plague.
The reason I mention this is that the best way to not change anything when you hit a
losing run is to have the confidence that the selection method, system or service will get
through them. If you are not confident then you will most likely bail out. Any system or
service worth its salt will be backed up by at least 12 months of results, proofed to a
reputable betting or racing website. If not, also avoid like the plague. Take a good look
at the results and see how many losing runs they had. If there do not appear to be any
then the chances are the results are fudged or simply a lie.
Also, look for a staking plan that under no circumstances changes during losing runs.
Simple level stakes is best. I use 2pt win or 1pt each-way. It works for me. Anyone who
uses a loss recovery system that increases stakes should be avoided.
Here is my own personal blueprint for managing losing runs:
• Recover losses slowly
• Stick to your methods and staking plan
• Focus on long term gains over short term losses
• The profit curve is not a straight line
• Road test any system or service – look for 12 months of results, simple staking plans
and no loss recovery methods
If you can integrate these into your mentality, then you will be able to handle losing
runs without any alarm and without any damage to your long term profits.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Product Reviews
Our latest updates on the products and services currently under review.
Cost: £1.00 for the first 30 days then £39.95 per month or £99.95 quarter.
The Trial: Yet another profitable month for this service we are pleased to say with 19
winners from 63 selections and a profit of almost 84 points to the advised prices.
Even at Betfair Starting Prices you would have made 70 points profit and ISP would
have shown you over 50 points!
Our trial in total has now produced 112 winners from 421 selections and an advised
prices profit of over 400 points!
(Profits to BFSP and ISP would have been 262.50 and 216 respectively) on a total
outlay of 595 points.
This gives a return on investment of 36% which is an excellent result.
Conclusion: A definite! We strongly suggest the 30 day trial for £1.00. Find out more
here.
Cost: £3.79 for the first month then £14.95 thereafter / £29.95 per quarter.
The Trial: Suddenly this service has taken to being much more selective with the
number of bets which has paid dividends. Our latest month has shown almost 44 points
profit from 7 winners and 23 selections. We are now back in profit by 1.75 points in
total so we have headed back in the right direction.
Eight of the selections this month though were again at prices in excess of 20/1 and all
of these lost and the majority were a maximum stakes bet of 3 points.
To be honest these kinds of bets seem a waste of what otherwise certainly has the
potential to be a reasonable service.
Conclusion: Sadly as we have no idea as to the method behind the staking selection we
do not feel that we can recommend this service.
Cost: £1.00 for 30 days introductory offer then £29.95 thereafter or £69.95 per quarter.
The Trial: Another service which has been more selective in its bets and has now
turned a corner somewhat.
We have had 10 wins from 29 selection sin our latest month of the trial and this has
produced a profit of 33.50 points.
Overall we are now sitting with 37 winners from 160 selections and a profit of almost
40 points.
Our trial has ended for this service now and we can’t help but think that cutting down
on the speculative bets would help to improve the service by limiting the lengthy losing
runs.
Conclusion: We feel that there must be better thought out football services out there.
You can find out more here.
Cost: First 30 days £1.00 plus VAT and then £39.95 per month / £99.95 per quarter plus
VAT.
The Trial: A small loss this month of a shade less than 4 points so nothing severe. Our
overall position is now 29 winners from 124 selections and a profit of 8 points having
staked over 110 points.
Each way betting at odds as low as 5/2 is not going to attractive to many and although
the service is currently steady it isn’t going to get the heart racing with excitement.
We are going to give the service another month and see how things go.
Conclusion: Looked promising but unsure after the latest month. We’ll wait to see what
the future holds. Find out more here.
Daily Racing Brief
Cost: Introductory offer of 50% of regular price, then 40.00 per month thereafter.
The Trial: The author of the service continued to email 4 selections daily (very early
each morning, including Sundays) except for 2 days in where there were 2 and 3
selections.
If we take account of the non-runners the total number of runners during the latest
month was 105 of which 28 were winners with one dead heat and a strike rate of
27.50%
Of the selections 21 were suggested back each way of which one was the dead heat
winner and a further 7 selections were placed.
The recommended staking was 2 points win and 1 point each way to the advised odds
with BOG bookmakers.
Our profit for the month was a healthy 48 points or an ROI of almost 23%.
As is expected most of the advised odds had shortened by the off but generally they
appeared to still be around at 7.00 am with just the occasional drifter.
Not everyone is able to chase BOG’s so we also monitored the performance to BFSP
and although the profit to the same stakes was almost halved after taking into account
5% commission you would still have cleared a profit of the best part of 25 points.
We still have another month of this service to monitor and we are hopeful that the
service will be one of the first we can recommend for the New Year.
You can take advantage of the 50% off introductory price here.
Cost: £4.99 first month then £19.95 thereafter or £39.95 per quarter.
The Trial: This is our final round up for this service and the selections have been
reliably delivered daily by email before 10.00am when the advised odds are generally
available with the Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers.
With 29 winners from 80 selections you would hope a profit would have been a given
but the search for value at the short end of the betting market sadly didn’t give such a
positive result with an overall loss of 7 points to a level one point stakes.
Over our 3 month trial we have just about broken even.
Conclusion: Maybe the service can return to winning form but sadly this was not to be
for our trial period. If you would like to find out more you can do so here.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Tipster Top Ten
Well that’s another year gone by so, which service offered up the best results over the
past 12 months based on advised stakes and Best Odds Guaranteed?
1. Russell Blair Racing - Strike Rate 17% ROI 42%
Topping the table based on the last 12 months performance is Russell Blair Racing. The
year started off slowly but and there have been 3 losing months at the time of writing,
but with all other months producing profits, three of which were in excess of 150 points
you can’t argue with that.
Find out more about the service
2. L7N Longshots - Strike Rate 25% ROI 36%
The Longshots have been in the tables this yearly regularly but as we have mentioned
before the name itself tells you that you need to be able to accept long losing runs so
that you can capitalise on the “longshots” when they do come in.
Find out more about the service
3. Early Odds - Strike Rate 24% ROI 32%
The overall picture for Early Odds when looked at graphically for the year is one of a
steady progression upwards and that is the trend to look for if you are a serious gambler
looking to make long term profits.
Find out more about the service
4. Big Race Trends - Strike Rate 13% ROI 30%
The Big Race Trends produced by our own Nick Hardman have fared exceptionally
well this past twelve months and we are sure that it is Nick’s wealth of knowledge
which helps him find those selections which often passes others by. When you are
landing the bigger priced winners you have to expect losing runs, but as mentioned
previously as long as that overall picture shows a positive onward and upward trend you
will not go far wrong.
Find out more about the service
5. Weekend Racing - Strike Rate 40% ROI 26%
Weekend Racing dropped a few points during late spring but soon bounced back to
profitable ways closing 440 + points up on the start of the year. As the name suggests
they specialise on the weekend race meetings to make sure that you have something of
interest to cheer home on the TV.
Find out more about the service
6. Unity Racing Club - Strike Rate 20% ROI 24%
Unity Racing Club make it in to the table but it has to be said that sometimes it can feel
like one step forward and two steps back with the winners. A large part of their profits
have come from one excellent day in June which landed 3 double figure priced winners.
If you had joined on the back of that you may well be looking at a different picture.
Find out more about the service here
7. Winning Way - Strike Rate 34% ROI 21%
Winning Way have produced profits over the year but one third of those were earned in
January thanks to 50/1 shot Realize. The picture may well have looked very different
without this win.
Find out more about the service
8. The Evening Value Service - Strike Rate 16% ROI 18%
If you had joined this service at the start of the year by Mid-May you may well have
thought of giving up on the service as results were mediocre however since then the
results have been positive and ever increasing and have ended on a high. Proof that
persistence and commitment can pay dividends..
Find out more about the service
9. Fantastic Eights - Strike Rate 17% ROI 15%
Fantastic Eights followed a very similar pattern to The Evening Value Service and spent
some time hanging around in the red in the early quarter of the year. Again though
September’s 50/1 winner Brave Anna certainly helped the final results.
Find out more about the service
10. Lucky 7 Naps - Strike Rate 22% ROI 15%
Lucky 7 Naps is like watching a rollercoaster.
You know that there is a great climb coming up but you know you can drop of the top
of the hill at a hurtling pace. Backing anything from 7/2 to 100/1 shots you are never
quite sure where the selections are going or how they pick them but when one is landed
on the profits based on their 5 point staking can be huge.
Find out more about the service
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd