eduardo mario mendiondo* national center for monitoring and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Eduardo Mario Mendiondo*
National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation - CEMADEN, MCTI, Brazil
* also Professor at University of Sao Paulo, EESC/USP
WORKSHOP ZCAS / MONCAO Governance and Policy for
Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability
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Natural Disasters in Brazil: over 95% of disasters are climate related
Forest fires, Floods, Drought, Mass movements
Wildfires, Floods, Erosions
Wildfires, Flash Floods, Floods, Droughts, Landslides,
Debris Flows
Droughts, Floods, Flash
Floods
Flash Floods, Wind Storms, Hails,
Landslides
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Natural Disasters and Population
Source: IBGE, 2010
*Source: Brazilian Atlas of Natural Disasters 1991-2012
Governance & Policies for: • Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation* • Urban Water Management • Climate Change, Agriculture and Water • Planning and Scenarios • Water State-of-the-Art in São Paulo State • Urban Planning • International Research Cooperation
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Atlas Brasil, 2010
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South American Community Water Availability 2000-2100
2100
2100
2100
2100
Year
2000
2050 2025
Strategic Scenarios 2000-2100 of community freshwater availability VS Gross Net Product per Capita for South America. Source: adapted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Cenário 2:
We are here!
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Sistemas analisados do PISF/ANA
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Future Water Demand at Selected River Basins at NorthEast Brazil: Source: PISF/ANA (Braz. Water Authority) & NLTA/World Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
m3/s
Ano
Jaguaribe (+)
Jaguaribe (-)
Piranhas-Açu (+)
Piranhas-Açu (-)
NLTA/World Bank*
PISF/ANA
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1st Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: HOW can we identify and split Operation & Maintenance’s Costs of Water Allocation under Strategic Adaptation Regional Planning for Disaster Risk Reductions and under change (i.e. climate, habits, population, land use, etc)?
* Fonte: E. M. Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy
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2nd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: Can we regionalize specific O&M for water allocation under different strategic adaptation regional plans?
Fonte:
Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy
Alto Jaguaribe
Médio Jaguaribe
Baixo Jaguaribe Banabuiu
Salgado
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3rd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: How to assess REGIONAL AND LOCAL RESILIENCE of Municipalities under climate change and different regional plans? Número de municípios do Ceará sob estresse hídrico no período 2000-2025
Source: Araujo et al (2004)
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A.N.A.(2002)
Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008)
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A.N
.A.(
200
2)
UGRHI 13: Tietê-Jacaré
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2010 2025 2025 2050 2050
m3
/ a
no
.ha
bita
nte
Oferta = Q7,10 Oferta até Q95%
Uso consuntivo Uso não-consuntivo
Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008)
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Elements of Comprehensive Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction
based on Hyogo’s and Sendai’s Framework for Action 2005-2030
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National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management
CEMADEN
CIVIL DEFENSE
CENAD
Alert & Logistics
Monitoring and Early Warning
MS, GSI, MT, Army Force
INMET, INPE, DECEA/MD & STATE CENTRES Hydrometeorology
information
MI, MCid e IBGE Disaster Risk &
Vulnerability Analyses
CPRM Geological
Vulnerability Mapping
ANA Hydrological information
Contingency & Response Plans
UNIVERSITIES & RESEARCH INSTITUTES Knowledge transfer, methods and hypothesis-testing, applied research databases on natural
disasters (vulnerability, exposure, hazards, risks)
COMMUNITY Local feedback
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Institutional Framework
Centro Nacional de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Desastres (CENAD/MI)
National Partners: MME/CPRM MMA/ANA MCIDADES IBGE INPE INMET DECEA UNIVERSITIES STATE CENTRES MUNICIPALITIES COMMUNITIESS
CEMADEN
Other Partners for Monitoring & Early Warning of Natural Disasters
BRAZILIAN BANK POSTS Co. COTER (Armed Forces) MOBILE & TELECOM Co. MEC (Education Min.) CTI (Tech. Center of Information) MS (Health Min.)
International Alliances & Partners
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Monitoring & Early Warning at CEMADEN
• Started in December, 2011
• 24-h, 365-day a year monitoring
• Early warning reports on landslides, mudslides, floods, floodings, flashfloods and severe drought impacts in Semi Arid Region
• 921 municipalities monitored in Brazil
Multidisciplinary Team: • Geologists • Geographers • Engineers • Hydrologists • Meteorologists • IT professionals
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“Community raingauge" pilot project
LOCAL ACTION: RAIN GAUGE AT LOCAL COMMUNITIES: A CITIZEN’S NETWORK FOR EARLY WARNING
*Updated March 2015
Over 1000 raingauges installed in communities exposed to high disaster
risk
Enhancing risk perception and education for
sustainability
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Governance & Policy Proposals
http://www.watergovernance.org/why
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4th Motivation for Governance & Policy: how much will (urgent) water saving for Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region cost?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Reducing Mean Consumption per Capita
("from Consumers")
Reducing Water Leaks ("from Water Supply
Company")
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation with PES
("Government Policy Part")
Demand Management Plan until year 2050. Total Saving Water until year 2050 = 17.6 m3/s. Water Withdrawal from Cantareira System in April 2015 = 15.6 m3/s
U$ 1.2 billion
U$ 0.6 billion
U$ 0.14 billion
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
Reducing Mean Consumption per Capita
("from Consumers")
Reducing Water Leaks ("from Water Supply
Company")
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation with PES
("Government Policy Part")
Demand Management Plan until year 2050: compared to São Paulo Metropolitan Region GDP(%)
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Source: http://practicalaction.org/blog/author/colinmcquistan/
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World cloud reflecting the content of the Sendai Framework
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Governance and Policy for
Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability
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Monitoring & Early Warning Conditions (CEMADEN/MCTI)
April 2015
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Source: CEMADEN – www.cemaden.gov.br
RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT SHORT-TERM: Monitoring and Early Warning
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RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT LONG-TERM: Optimal damage and premium (R$.km-2) from adaptation mechanisms of securitization and risk-transfer schemes (drought insurance)
Source: Laurentis (2012).
Example: Piracicaba Basin (simulated area = 10.929,9 km2, with inner sub-basins)
Actors of change
Scenarios Climate Land use
Wat. Avail.
No change
Cli X
ClUso X X
ClDis X X
ClUsDi X X X
SMud X
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Governance and Policies related to Disaster Risk Reduction Framework
• International cooperation in support of a post 2015 framework for disaster risk
• Governing Disaster Risk - Overcoming Challenges
• Public Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction
• Reducing Disaster Risk in Urban Settings
• Mobilizing Women’s Leadership in Disaster Risk Reduction
• Risk sensitive Investments
• Public Private Partnerships
• Inclusive Disaster Risk Management
• Risk Identification and Assessment
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CEMADEN/MCTI’s Governance & Policy
for BRICS 2015-2018 Plan with: • Sendai recovery as a model for turning disaster tragedies into
sustainable future,
• Majority of natural disasters are climate related,
• Global agendas look for pre-emptive spending to reduce disaster risks,
• Risk transfer is key to raising world’s disaster resilience
• Early warning saves lives but communities need targeted, useful information,
• Involvement at local level is critical to reducing disaster risk
• Reducing disaster risk is vital to end poverty,
• Banks & governments need global innovation challenge to boost understanding of disaster risks”
• Post 2015 framework on disaster risk reduction
• National and regional plans on disaster risk management
• Lessons to learn from Resilient Regions with Pilot Projects