eduardo mondlane universityinstitute for water resource, rhodes university phd proposal-progress...

Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress

Agostinho Vilanculos

Supervisors: - Prof. Denis Hughes (IWR, Rhodes University, SA)

- Dr. Elonio Muiwane (Eduardo Mondlane University, Moz)

Balancing water for improving multireservoir system Operation using hydrological information: Integrated hydrological modeling special focus on Zambezi river basin


Outline

Background - Related Previous Studies - Geographic Location - Surface Water Potential

MethodologyPreliminary findsFurther Studs

Questions and comments


PREVIOUS STUDIES IN THE STUDY AREA

Existing and applied Water Resources Systems: - Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting (Jessen, 2001);- Flood Watch Model (DHI, 2009);- Comparison of two model approaches in the

Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiably (Winsemius et al., 2006);

- Impact of climatic Changes on hydrology (Asante and Vilanculos, 2009).

Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University

BACKGROUND: Problem and Motivation

Problem statement:• 30 million in 2030 70 million• Pop. growth will increase water

demand for agric. And energy• 80% population lives on rainfed

agriculture• Irrigation potential more than 3

million ha only 5% are developed• Poor ground hydro-climatic

monitoring infra-structures (Tumbare, 2004; Asante, 2007; FAO, 2007)

Motivation: GIS-RS-Hydrologic Model tools

Geographic Location


Water Resources Potential - Climatic and Hydrology

Hydrology: River and Discharge• Lukulo river - 4.1 km3/year• Zambezi river - 33.5 km3/year• Kafue river - 10 km3/year• Luangwa river - 22 km3/year• Shiri River - 16 km3/year• Kabora Bassa lake - 77.5 km3/year • Malawi Lake - 29 km3/year• Shiri Out flow to Moz- 12.5 km3/year

Rainfall: Range from 570mm/year (Simi Arid Area central to 2190mm/year in East and North

Source: (Hungwe et. al;., 2000FAO, 2007 Tumbare, 2004).

Countries Irrigation Potential (ha)

Area under irrigation (ha)

% of Area under irrigation (ha)

Water Requirement total (km³/year)

Angola 700 000 2 000 0.3 9. 50

Namibia 11 000 6 142 55.8 0.255

Botswana 1 080 0 0.0 0.006

Zimbabwe 165 400 49 327 29.8 1.737

Zambia 422 000 41400 9.8 5.064

Tanzania 0 0 0.0 0.000

Malawi 160 900 28 000 17.4 2.092

Mozambique

1700 000 20 000 1.2 18 700

Total 3 160 380 146 860 4.65 18718.65

Irrig. Potential, Water Requirement and area under irrigation


Water R. Potential - Hydraulic Infrastructure

Source: Zambezi River Authority


AIMS OF THE STUDY

• Identify the interlinking between up and downstream WRMS.

• Identify the relationship to be made between power generation and flood impacts downstream.

• To develop a or no coordinated methodology for daily/monthly operating strategies in the Zambezi River Basin.


METHODOLOGY

Identification of current WRMS and Selection of an existing WRMS FrameworkUse of a selected WRMS for:

- Delineation of preliminary boundaries- Calculation of daily soil water balance and flow- Selection of the monitoring and calibration sites- Run preliminary model in various scenarios (with and

without Dam discharges connected) and predicting the impacts downstreamFlood Risk Analysis at Downstream Statistics Analysis


CASE STUDIES

1. Existing Water Resources Management Systems in the

Zambezi River Basin

- Quest.: What are the WRMS existing in the Study area?

2. Hydrological Scale in Hydrological Models

- Quest.: How do different scale hydrological models link with each other?

3. Balancing water for power generation and for other users downstream

- Quest.: What is the role of implementing of a muiltreservoir operation system on the integrated river basin management ?


EXPECTED RESULTS

• Doctoral thesis in hydrology.• Knowledge on downstream implication from

upstream operational reservoir in the Zambezi basin.

• Knowledge on definition of optimal hydropower reservoir operation.

• Guidelines on how well the multi-reservoir systems in series and parallels can be operated in beneficial main through integrated water resources system framework


Preliminary Results (1): WRMS- Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting

• Manual method of counting takes a lot of time

• it does not gives the quantity of rain for each sub-basin or for the all basin

Opportunity: The GIS Spatial Analyst tool offer an excellent functionality


Preliminary Results (2): WRMS - Mike Flood Watch Model

• Advantage: Use of observed data

• Disadvantages: - Designed for small catchments- Depends of the reader - Power Coverage (rain gauges)

- Extreme events ( Floods and

Droughts)Floods – Destroy infra-structures

Droughts - concentrate in small rills away from the river gauges Opportunities: RFE Satellite Data


Preliminary Results (3) : Potential Conceptual Model Produced

• Delineation of model boundaries

• Preliminary calculation of flows

http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro ftp://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/.

http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/adds/africa .

DEM Soils Data Land Cover/use Rainfall Evapotranspiration

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136Time

Q (

m3/s

)


PRELIMINARY RESULTS (4): SELECTION OF CALIBRATION AND MONITORING SITES


Further Studs• Input data validation results are underway

• Model calibration and preliminary results are

underway

• Creation of Dam Links Modules- Depending on

historical data of upstream countries

• Flood Risk Analysis

• Hydrological Stochastic analysis


Thank you

Questions and Comments?

eduardo mondlane universityinstitute for water resource, rhodes university phd proposal-progress...

Documents

water demand

year zambezi river

rhodes university background

year shiri river

moz balancing water

irrigation slide

year kafue river

year luangwa river